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12/27 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Yahoo)

I will do my best to provide a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay!

Season Record: 30-17-2

12/27 Three Ball:

Southern Illinois tto 68.5

Vanderbilt 1H -12.5

Vanderbilt -23

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Southern Illinois tto 68.5: If you have been following, you know that the Salukis are one of my favorite mid-majors for the 2020 season. They share the ball really well, and they are one of the sharpest shooting teams in the country. They are 51% from the field, 77% from the line, and 44% from three. Even when the pace is slowed, which Evansville will try to do, we will still get over the 68.5 total against an inferior opponent with these offensive metrics.

Score Prediction: Southern Illinois 73 – Evansville 61

Vanderbilt -12.5 1H: This is a fade Alcorn State spot. This team is BAD BAD BAD. They have lost every match-up this season by a minimum of 33 points, and turn the ball over 19 times a game. They are also dead last in the country in assists per game at 4.3. This should get ugly quick.

Score Prediction: 1H Vanderbilt 42 – Alcorn State 24

Vanderbilt -23: See above

Score Prediction: Vanderbilt 85 – Alcorn State 55

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/22 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: The San Diego Union-Tribune)

Season Record: 26-16-2

12/22 Three Ball:

Kansas ML -120

Iowa -7

San Diego State -2

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Kansas ML: Kansas is one of the few programs in the country with a decent home court advantage this year. They are allowing roughly 3k fans per game. That doesn’t sound like much, but the crazed Jayhawk fans make plenty of noise. This is definitely an advantage in a season where the kids have been playing in mostly empty gyms. This crowd energy can get players like Christian Braun going. He had his best performance of the season against Creighton at Phog Allen, and I think the big game hype + crowd energy will lead to a big night for him. Kansas has better guard play, and better ways to find a bucket than West Virginia. They just need to make sure they hold their own on the glass. Bill Self is nails at home. We ride with the Jayhawks

Score Prediction: Kansas 74 – West Virginia 71

Iowa -7: The Hawkeyes will be rolling into this match-up with two things on their mind. To start, Iowa wants to prove they are better than their showing vs Gonzaga on Saturday. This team is built with shooters around the best post-player in the country. On Saturday, the shooting was ice cold. 4-22 from 3, and 14-26 from the line. Iowa played well in all other aspects of the game, and I would believe that the sharp shooting returns as the come home to Carver-Hawkeye. Secondly, this team was just simply embarrassed by Purdue last season. Blowout losses in both match-ups. The teams are returning almost identical rosters to last season, and this will have the Hawkeyes fired up to pour it on the Boilermakers. Iowa big.

Score Prediction: Iowa 87 – Purdue 73

San Diego State -2: This is my favorite play of the night. San Diego State is coming into this match fired up after an out-of-character performance at home vs BYU in their last outing. They came out flat, and found themselves down 15 at the half. Matt Mitchell went scorched earth in the second half and brought the Aztecs all of the way back to tie it with a minute left, but it was too little too late. San Diego State had the longest non-conference winning streak in the nation until that game. They will be fired up tonight to get back on the right foot. Also, Saint Mary’s can really struggle in the half-court against teams that are elite defensively. The Aztecs are just that.

Score Prediction: San Diego State 70 – Saint Mary’s 59

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/21 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Wofford Athletics)

Season Record: 24-15-2

12/21 Three Ball:

Wofford TTO o62.5

Southern Illinois +9.5

Austin Peay +4

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Wofford TTO o62.5: Finally! A spot I feel confident taking the Terriers. This is a program that I have a very close connection with, and it has been a fun ride following them over the last few seasons. There are a few reasons why I like this play. To start, I love that Wofford found their three point touch against Coastal. They shot it a SPICY 15-32 from behind the arc. This included nice shooting performances from Morgan Safford and Tray Hollowell, who were struggling a bit to start the year. The Terriers are top 5 in the country in 3 point attempts / game, so picking Wofford when they are “on” is a heady play. They also have an elite mid-major point guard in Storm Murphy running the show. Not only does he get his teammates involved, but he is scoring at a high clip this season. This is an early tip, and A&M may not be as locked in defensively for a 1pm Monday non-conference game. To go along with that, A&M leads the country in allowing 3 point attempts. This plays to Wofford’s strengths. I think that Wofford could cover this spread, but I am scared of A&M getting to the line in this one. We should hit on the WoCo tto.

Score Prediction: Texas A&M 74 – Wofford 68

Southern Illinois +9.5: The Salukis!!! We are back on the train with the boys from Southern Illinois. Today will be a definite step-up in competition, but I just love what Southern Illinois can do offensively. They are shooting a red-hot 78% from the line, and 44% from 3. That is why they are 5-0 to start the year. Butler had almost a month off after their first game of the season after COVID complications, and they have came back to action ice cold. Granted, these match-ups have been against Villanova and Indiana. However, we will bank on trends continuing. The shooting from the Salukis is too good to pass on. I may have a pizza money ML play on the Salukis as well.

Score Prediction: Butler 69 – Southern Illinois 66

Austin Peay +4: Rematch spot. If you have noticed, these plays have been hitting at a high clip this season. Even in rematches where the first meeting got out of hand. That is certainly the case in this match-up. Murray State embarrassed Austin Peay by 30 points a few weeks ago. Shocking result. Matt Figger is a coach I am extremely familiar with due to be a Gamecock alum. He learned under Frank Martin, and has built something special in Clarksville. He will have his guys fired up to avenge the embarrassment from a few weeks ago. Hopefully, the Governors will have Jordyn Adams back, but that is unclear at this point. The line will certainly shrink if he is deemed active. Regardless, the Governors have the best player on the court in Terry Taylor, and I feel comfortable getting 4 in this spot.

Score Prediction: Austin Peay 74 – Murray State 73

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/19 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: The Spokesman-Review)

Season Record: 20-14-1

12/19 Three Ball:

Gonzaga -2.5

Baylor -16.5

UCLA -1

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Gonzaga -2.5: Saturday is when the Gonzaga will make their mark on this 2020/2021 basketball season. Personally, I believe they are the best college basketball team that we have seen since the Anthony Davis led Kentucky squad. Jalen Suggs is the highest recruit that Mark Few has gotten out to Spokane, and man is he impressive. Adding him to an already loaded group coming back to win a title is simply unfair. Iowa has been a gambling darling of mine since the beginning of last year. However, they do not have the defensive weapons to combat an elite offense. This will be the first they have faced this season, and it will show in a big way. Gonzaga is too efficient, too quick and too athletic on both sides of the ball for this Iowa team. This score will not be as indicative of Iowa’s prowess, as it will be to show just how good Mark Few’s guys are.

Score Prediction: Gonzaga 90 – Iowa 78

Baylor -16.5: This is a treat of a line. Snag it before it is -20 by Noon on Saturday. Baylor will outclass Kansas State in every aspect of the game. There is no need for much of a breakdown here. Sic ‘Em

Score Prediction: Baylor 82 – Kansas State 58

UCLA -1: I believe Mick Cronin will turn up the pressure on an Ohio State team that is coming off of a tough road loss at Purdue. Ohio State really struggled without their leading scorer, E.J. Liddell. Liddell is still battling mono, and it is unclear if he will suit up on Saturday. The Bruins have an elite defense this season, and it is shocking to me that the polls are not showing them love at this point. Also, UCLA is getting consistent double digit scoring from 5 guards, and strong post play from Riley and Hill. The Bruins will be a tough out all year long! They get a big win to keep the momentum rolling in the Champions Classic.

Score Prediction: UCLA 72 – Ohio State 66

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/18 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Rocky Top Insider)

Season Record: 17-14-1

12/18 Three Ball:

Richmond ML -120

Western Carolina +3.5

Tennessee TTO o78.5

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Richmond ML: This was a spot I was thinking of staying away from when the line opened at-4. However, the line has moved to -2 and ML has dropped to -120. Normally, I am nervous by reverse line movement.. but not in this case. The -2 line is perfectly set. Richmond will win this game, but it will be a nail biter. Golden is a high IQ big, and he will be able to compete with Krutwig all night. This will neutralize Loyola’s biggest strength. Also, Richmond have the far superior backcourt with Francis and Gilyard. They will win this one at the line.

Score Prediction: Richmond 69 – Loyola 66

Western Carolina +3.5: CofC has really struggled to start this season without Grant Riller. He was the leader of the Cougars for four seasons, before graduating and signing with the Hornets. To make matters worse for Earl Grant, the team’s leading scorer, Brevin Galloway, has just gone down with a torn ACL. Grant is a great coach and will have the Cougars competitive later in the season, but the shock of this and trying to figure out a new game plan will bother them in this match-up. The Catamounts have a senior backcourt (Faulkner and Halvorsen) that has been exceptional this year. Also, Xavier Cork has been a monster presence on the inside to balance out the attack. Western Carolina wins this game, but I will take the points.

Score Prediction: Western Carolina 74 – CofC 69

Tennessee TTO o78.5: This game will be an absolute bloodbath. I would have loved to take the spread, but I will not take a 30 point spread out of principle. Too many dumb things can happen when a game gets out of hand. However, Tennessee will have their way with scoring the basketball tonight. Tennessee Tech is pathetic defensively, and also turn the ball over 18 times a game. This will lead to easy transition buckets for the Vols. Tonight is the night that Yves Pons gets his season rolling on the right foot. Tennessee – big.

Score Prediction: Tennessee 85 – Tennessee Tech 48

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/17 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Texas Tech Athletics)

Season Record: 16-12-1

12/17 Three Ball:

Texas Tech -1.5 1H

Creighton -3.5 1H

Saint Louis -2 1H

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Texas Tech -1.5 1H: The Red Raiders have had this game circled from the beginning of offseason workouts. A conference home opener against the beasts from the Big 12, the Kansas Jayhawks. In order to be the team that snaps the Jayhawks conference title streak, they will more than likely need to win tonight. There will be a limited crowd, and they should be amped up and behind the Red Raiders. To go along with the crowd, TTU is also rocking throwback jerseys tonight. There will be a massive amount of energy from the Red Raiders to start this game, and it doesn’t hurt that they are currently 5th in the country in defensive efficiency. I think this game could come down to a last second shot, so we will get out of this game early.

Score Prediction: Texas Tech 35 – Kansas 30

Creighton -3.5 1H: Quite frankly, this team is pissed off. They lost a heartbreaker on the road at Allen Fieldhouse, and then had a horrific meltdown and blew a 12 point lead with 5 to go against Marquette a few nights ago. That is simply not good enough for a team with Final Four aspirations. Saint John’s will get up and down pace-wise, and this will play into Creighton’s strengths. For an added bonus, Alex O’Connell (former Duke guard) has been granted immediately eligibility. Look for him to hit a few big time kick-out threes in this game. I am also interested in laying the -6.5 full game, but -3.5 1H is the play.

Score Prediction: Creighton 44 – Saint John’s 34

Saint Louis -2 1H: Saint Louis is a first half team. In every game this season, they have gotten out to massive first half leads. Including, LSU’s trip to Chaifetz Arena. These hot starts can be contributed to their senior three-headed monster of Javonte Perkins, Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French. NC State is shuffling in a few freshmen in the backcourt, and I believe this will lead to a Billikens lead at the half. NC State is a solid team, so I will play the 1H and hope the Saint Louis early start trend continues. Side note, this is NC State’s first game back since their COVID shutdown. Two weeks without live action.

Score Prediction: Saint Louis 38 – NC State 32

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/16 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: The Tribune-Democrat)

Season Record: 13-11-1

12/16 Three Ball:

Purdue -4

Pittsburgh -2.5

Samford -1.5

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Purdue -4: For starters, you love getting Purdue at home. Matt Painter always has the boys ready to play at Mackey. I don’t always love their road play, so this is a nice spot to grab them at home. The Boilermakers are also crushing the glass this year with Trevion Williams, Zach Edey and Aaron Wheeler. I love having that in the arsenal when betting a side. The Buckeyes are coming in without their leading scorer, E.J. Liddell. This will cause problems on the road.

Score Prediction: Purdue 67 – Ohio State 58

Pittsburgh -2.5 : Pittsburgh is rolling into this game hot. They are getting strong play from veterans Champagnie, Johnson and Toney. The Northwestern comeback may be a tone setter for this 20/21 season. As much as I love Pitt this year, this play is also about Miami. They have really struggled to score the basketball, and they are in DEEP inactive trouble tonight. Anthony Yero (305 Sports) is reporting that Lykes, McGusty, Miller, Cross, and Gak will all miss tonight’s contest. This leaves Miami with 6 healthy players – and a walk-on will have to start. Hammer this play. I have multi-units on this one.

Score Prediction: Pitt 74 – Miami 62

Samford -1.5: Going back to the well with our Bulldogs! They had a massive cover against UGA on Saturday, and led for about 39 minutes of that contest. They are on the road against a Troy team that is pretty solid defensively, but they are a dreadful offensive team. They are shooting it 34% from the field, 65% from the line, and 23% from 3. They will not be able to score with Samford. I like this one almost as much as the Pitt game.

Score Prediction: Samford 77 – Troy 65

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/15 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Coastal Carolina University Athletics)

Season Record: 10-8-1

12/15 Three Ball:

Coastal Carolina +6.5

Florida Atlantic -4.5

UNCG / USC Upstate over 146

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Coastal Carolina +6.5: This pick pains me. Normally, I am one of the biggest Terrier supporters in the land. However, they just have not gotten off to a great start this season. Morgan Safford is playing 30 minutes a game as a freshman guard, and is really struggling. Also, Tray Hollowell is forcing the issue and jacking up way too many poor looks now that this is “his team”. These are reasons why I am down on Wofford to start the year. Coastal Carolina has two guards that are a treat for betters. First, Ebrima Dibba is a match-up nightmare. He is a 6’7 guard that can score, assist and rebound. He has pro potential with a big year this season. He showed out in front of a national audience in the Myrtle Beach Invitational last season before his injury, and I expect him to be in the national spotlight again soon. Also, Coastal is led by DeVante Jones (18/7/4 this season). Look for him to have a big night as well.

Score Prediction: Wofford 78 – Coastal Carolina 75

Florida Atlantic -4.5 : Stetson sucks. This is a pure fade Stetson play. The Hatters are shooting it 34% from the field, 29% from 3, 63% from the line, and are turning the ball over 17 times a game. YUCK! FAU is also returning their senior leader, Jailyn Ingram. He will carry the Owls in this matchup and they will cruise to an easy victory.

Score Prediction: FAU 75 – Stetson 64

UNCG / USC Upstate over 146: I love this play from an analytics perspective. To start, USC Upstate is allowing 90 ppg early this season. Not even against Top 25 opponents, but against opponents of similar caliber to UNC Greensboro. Their coach halfway opted out, and is not with the team on game days. They are essentially just showing up and running an open gym type of game. UNCG loves to push the pace and press against an inferior opponent, and USC Upstate will gladly feed into this pace of play. Upstate comes into the match-up 26th in pace of play, and UNCG slides in at 54th. Also, in UNCG’s last match-up against a Top 25 pace squad, the total hit 168 (Coppin State – 22nd). I feel good about this one.

Score Prediction: UNCG 85 – USC Upstate 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

Three Point Sniper – Week 4 – Top 25

(photo: 247 Sports)

Week 4 – Top 25

Gonzaga
Baylor
Iowa
Michigan State
Villanova
Kansas
Creighton
Texas
West Virginia
Houston
Tennessee
Wisconsin
Illinois
Missouri
Florida State
Texas Tech
UVA
Michigan
Xavier
Rutgers
San Diego State
Clemson
Louisville
North Carolina
Duke

12/14 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Maryland Athletics)

Season Record: 10-6-1

12/14 Three Ball:

Maryland -2

Eastern Kentucky -5

Pepperdine -2

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Maryland -2: This is a tough play to take, considering Maryland just got their doors blown off against Clemson. However, this is the smart play based on where the line is and the analytics behind it. Typically, it is always a smart bet to take when you are laying points with an unranked team against a ranked team in college basketball. Vegas takes a lot of square money in these spots. Also, Rutgers has been very impressive to start the season. 4-0 after what would have been their first tourney birth in ages last season. However, none of these games have been played on the road. Rutgers was 2-8 straight up in true road games last season with this same group of players. I am not eager to believe that they will turn this trend around in their first attempt at a battle tested conference foe this season. To go along with the road record from the previous year, Rutgers is shooting 59% from the line and 32% from deep. Those stats are not conducive to road victories.

Score Prediction: Maryland 72 – Rutgers 67

Eastern Kentucky -5 : This is my favorite play on the card. I may even have a two unit play on this personally. To start, Eastern Kentucky is a great basketball team. They are 5-1 overall, with their only loss coming on the road in overtime to a 7-0 Xavier team. To go along with that, they are 4-1 ATS. Their lone outlier of a weird performance was against the team that they are playing tonight, Morehead State. If you look at it from afar, a 3 point home win (where you don’t cover) is something that would lead you to believe you should stay away from this spot tonight. However, after a deep dive.. we realize that this game was an anomaly. Morehead State shot it 67%!!! from the field. Like, holy shit. 67%. And still lost the game by 3 points. Why? Because they turned the ball over 27 times and shot 36% from the line. Morehead State is just a bad, bad basketball team. They average more turnovers (close to 18 per) than assists, they shoot 44% from the field even with their 67% performance, and they shoot 62% from the line. Vegas has the line here to lure betters in that don’t take a deep dive into the stats and just see the 3 point EKU victory at home from the last match-up. Eastern Kentucky rolls!

Score Prediction: Eastern Kentucky 80 – Morehead State 66

Pepperdine -2: I like this spot due to Pepperdine’s ability to push the pace and score the basketball. Currently hovering around Top 50 in pace. UNLV has struggled out of the gate with teams who play in this fashion – UNC, Alabama, etc. We all know my love for Colbey Ross, and I think he leads an inspired performance from the Waves coming off of a poor loss. This team has tourney aspirations, and cannot afford to lose another game like this with Gonzaga in their conference. Winning the conference tourney is not likely, and they know that. Also, Kessler Edwards is one of the better players that you have never heard of, and he will have a big night as well against a weak UNLV frontcourt. The Waves get a nice road win.

Score Prediction: Pepperdine 79 – UNLV 73

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!