The plays below are the early adds that I am locking in as of tonight – 3/16. There will be more as we go through the week. I will also be doing a write-up for all of my picks (including these). Thursday’s write-up will be posted on Wednesday night, and Friday’s write-up will be posted on Thursday night or Friday morning. Working on the Tournament Preview now. Looking to post that tomorrow afternoon-PM. We are 62-36 over the last two NCAA Tournaments. Let’s crush it again! Appreciate everyone who has made it to this page. We have built an awesome community over the past 5 years. Your support means a lot!
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***Lock in as soon as you can if you are riding the wave. These spreads are moving like crazy right now***
We have a few mid-majors left to finish, but this is the real meat of the conference tournament season. There are several conference tournaments where I see value on some mid-long shots to make a run. Unfortunately, I ran out of time for a write-up.. but here they are!
Mountain West – Utah State +400 (FD)
ACC – Pass. Duke is too much here. SMU at +6500 (FD) could be sneaky if you just need a dart throw for a pool or something
St. John’s/Marquette over 141.5 (12:00pm – Fox)+**Best Bet**
NC State/Miami over 149.5(12:00pm – CW Network)(FD)
Tennessee -15.5 (2:00pm – SECN) +**Best Bet**
UConn -18 (2:30pm – Fox) +
Kansas -3 (4:30pm -ESPN) +
+ given last night on X
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St. John’s/Marquette over 141.5 : It looks like we will receive some nice CLV to get our day started. This number is touching 145.5 at some places. Glad we got in early.
I cannot state enough how fucking awesome Kam Jones is. The way he has completely remodeled his game post-Kolek is amazing to me. Jones never averaged over 2.4 assists in any of his first three years at Marquette. He is now averaging 6 assists per game this year. That is good for 20th nationally. More importantly, Kam is boasting a 3.35 assist/turnover ratio. That is 5th nationally! He has transformed himself into one of the best true point guards in the country.
The assist/turnover ratio is going to be very important today against one of the better defenses in the country. Marquette is 7th in the country in protecting the ball. You have to limit turnovers to have any kind of offensive success against St. John’s. Kam is going to be instrumental in getting us to the number we need. It is going to be a legendary Senior Day performance.
I also see a path for the Johnnies to score today. It is going to be a bloodbath on the boards in favor of the Red Storm. Marquette ranks 252nd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage & that is the main reason they lost their most recent game to the Huskies. UConn outrebounded Marquette 19-8 on the offensive glass. It will be more of the same today. St. John’s ranks 9th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
I love the spot for this over. I love the matchup edges that we have. I love the soft & silky rims at Fiserv. What’s not to love? Best Bet.
Score Prediction:Marquette 76 – St. John’s 72
NC State/Miami over 149 : I have to give a shoutout to Stuckey for bringing this game to my attention earlier in the week.
I immediately started digging and fell in love with the over here. Miami has legitimately quit on the defensive end. I know that was a funny thing to say for most of the season, but it cannot be disputed at this point. The Canes rank near last in D1 in defensive efficiency over their last 5. They have allowed their last 4 opponents to shoot at least 52.5% from the field and are allowing 89.8 ppg over those four. They are a walking layup line.
NC State has also lost their bite defensively after following all the way out of the ACC Tournament. No magic run to the Final Four this year for Keatts. The Wolfpack have allowed 78.8 ppg over their last 5. Well above their season average.
There is no postseason on the horizon for either team after today. With the new mega conference model, teams like this don’t even get a chance to win their conference tournament in a league like the ACC. This is going to have an open gym feel, & I suspect we get a higher scoring affair with very little defensive intensity. Give me this gross (holy shit is it gross) over.
Score Prediction: NC State 78 – Miami 76
Tennessee -15.5 : Lord forgive me for this one. It’s always Forever To Thee.
South Carolina is a team that has cashed multiple Best Bets for us over the last few weeks. The Gamecocks are at the bottom of the conference, but they have been scrappy as hell at home. They printed money for us at Colonial Life Arena. When this team leaves the CLA, it is a different story. The Gamecocks are 0-8 on the road in the SEC losing by an average of 18.4 ppg. This includes a 14 point loss to the other cellar dwellers, LSU. South Carolina is going to really struggle to score today. Tennessee has moved all the way up to #2 in the country in effective FG% allowed per KenPom. They are also 1st in the SEC in shot selection allowed per ShotQuality. The Gamecocks rank 266th in effective FG% per KenPom, and are 11th in shot selection in the the SEC per SQ. Matchup. Edge.
Tennessee continues to have one of the better homecourt advantages in the country year after year. I like this spot for Senior Day. There is also a world where Tennessee could still snag the last 1 seed. It would be very difficult and they would need help, but a win today and and SECT crown could potentially get them there. There is incentive to put some style points out there today. Let’s BCS this shit. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 78 – South Carolina 56
UConn -18 : This one is personal for Dan Hurley. The Seton Hall alum has struggled with the Pirates in his coaching career. This includes a loss earlier this season that was a major blow to the Huskies resume. You could see on the broadcast how heated he was to be losing once again to Seton Hall. I think we are going to get unrelenting revenge today.
This is definitely a spot angle. We will likely see one of the better versions of UConn that we have all year long in a Senior Day atmosphere against Hurley’s alma mater.
However, analytics on our our side as well. We took 18 here and KenPom actually has this as a 17 point game on it’s own analytical merit without any other factors at play. The Seton Hall offense continues to be one of the worst watches in the game. The Pirates are now 359th in the country in ShotQuality PPP in the halfcourt. UConn is up to 22nd in defending in the halfcourt. That is going to be a death sentence in what will be an inferno atmosphere today. The ShotQuality regression model also shows that this is Seton Hall’s PPP true form based on the shots they are getting. This one is going to get ugly. Quick. I feel confident laying it here.
Score Prediction: UConn 81 – Seton Hall 57
Kansas -3 : This is the spot of all spots. Kansas needs this like they need air to breathe. They are going to get it.
Kansas really showed me something in the Houston game. They got absolutely battered on the turnover and offensive rebounding margin, but never gave up and kept one of the best teams in the country at arm’s length on the road. This team isn’t giving up. I feel confident back them in a rocking Senior Day – Allen Fieldhouse atmosphere today. They are graduating some stalwarts of this program over the last few years. The crowd will back them in a big way.
It might be Regression Monster time for Arizona.
This is the Regression Analysis on Arizona courtesy of ShotQuality (promo code: SNIPER25). The defensive profile is very concerning. Especially the Finishing at the Rim and Midrange numbers. Kansas is 6th in the country per ShotQuality in finishing at the rim. Hunter Dickinson and the Jayhawks are the team that is going to bring that regression to the mean. The Wildcats are due for a tick of offensive regression as well. Kansas is still KenPom’s 6th ranked defense in regards to adjusted efficiency. We are going to party with the Regression Monster at the best venue in college basketball. Let’s lay the short number here.
Brackets are back! Time to hunker down for the next month and win baby, win. We are going to keep the same model as years passed. One unit placed on each conference winning ticket for recording purposes. Play these however you’d like. Let’s bag another winning conference tournament season!
Sun Belt: James Madison +380 (DK)
The Dukes have gone through a complete roster overhaul & head coaching change from their lovable team from a season ago. JMU was a sexy pick to bag a first round upset in the Big Dance last year, and they delivered on that prediction. The Dukes knocked off Wisconsin as a #12 seed before bowling out in the 2nd round against Duke. A lot of the general public has dismissed JMU this year after the overhaul mentioned above. Not so fast my friend. The Dukes have reloaded. Preston Spradlin is a fantastic head coach. He is coming off of two NCAA tournament births with Morehead State over the past four years, and he knows what it takes to win a conference tournament. This is a top 100 offense in KenPom led by a three-headed backcourt monster of Mark Freeman, Bryce Lindsay and Xavier Brown. The Dukes also have a massive post presence in 6’11 Elijah Hutchins-Everett. JMU had won 10 (TEN!!) conference games in a row before losing to Texas State in double OT in their finale. This team is hot at the right time and got their loss out of the way. The Sun Belt also rewards the top seeds with significant byes. As the 2 seed, JMU will not play until the semifinal. Also, South Alabama and Arkansas State are on the other side of the bracket. At +380 I think this is fantastic value. Give me the Dukes.
Patriot League: Pass
I lean the favorite in Bucknell, but Colgate probably finds a way as they always do. The American/Colgate game will be a fun one. No conference winner ticket for this conference, but will likely get involved on a single game betting perspective.
NEC (Northeast): Pass
Central Connecticut likely wins as the favorite. Not laying the juice there.
Horizon League: Milwaukee +280 (DK)
This team has what it takes to run through a conference tournament. Don’t believe me? Believe the analytics.
This profile is courtesy of ShotQuality (promo code: SNIPER25). The Panthers are #1 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. #1! They are finally fully healthy and I believe they are poised to dominate the glass throughout the entirety of this Horizon tournament. This is a team who has won 5 out of 6, including a win over their first round opponent – Oakland. Yes, Oakland. Sorry everyone. The lovable Golden Grizzlies will bow out in the first round of the Horizon this year. The Panthers are too much for them around the rim. Milwaukee grabbed 16 offensive rebounds and shot 33 free throws against Oakland a week ago. Per the profile above, that is very repeatable. A win gets us to a semi against Youngstown State/PFW. I like the Panthers against either team. I will take the +280 here.
Ohio Valley Conference: Pass
Enjoy the madness here, folks. Your guess is as good as mine in this conference. It should be entertaining!
Big South: Pass
The High Point price is too rich. I really hope they win. We have been high on this team since the preseason. I would love to see what kind of matchup they would get slotted with in the Big Dance. This team has R64/R32 upset potential.
Summit League: South Dakota State +300(DK)
I considered taking a stab at North Dakota State here, but the injury doubt of Jacksen Moni pulled me away from the Bison. South Dakota State was the team I predicted to meet the Bison in the final (pre-Moni injury update), so I have no problem playing South Dakota State here. Oscar Cluff instantly becomes the most feared player in this tournament with the injury to Moni. The Washington State transfer has absolutely dominated the glass in conference play and currently sits 2nd nationally in rebounds per game. Cluff and the Jackrabbits are the class of the league in the interior.
They have bolstered their national ranks in conference play and this is where they are ranked in key areas per Shot Quality. I like their side of the Summit League bracket. St. Thomas was an incredible team at home this year, but struggled at times on the road. This tournament is played in Sioux Falls and will be a big time pro-Jackrabbit crowd. I think that matters. I’ll take the +300 here.
Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness): Illinois State +1800(Caesars)
There it is. Our first big time long shot of the conference tournament season. It is time for our Redbirds to put the world on notice. Don’t worry, Drake will get their at-large bid. This Illinois State team is supremely talented (relative to The Valley). Chase Walker is one of the best post-players in The Valley. They have an excellent inside/out game featuring Walker because the team shoots 38% from 3 and 75% from the stripe. This is a team that has knocked off Bradley and Belmont this year, and had a tonnnn of close losses that went against them against the class of the league. They lost 6 games to to the Top 4 seeds in the league by a combined 21 points. They have proven that they can compete at the highest level in the league and I will gladly take this longshot play on them. The Redbirds open with Missouri State who I think they will easily get by. They will then matchup with Belmont in the quarters. I think this is a great matchup for Illinois State. The Redbirds lost in OT by 2 points to Belmont in December, and avenged that loss at home in late January. I like Illinois State in the rubber match. Then you get the mighty Drake Bulldogs in the semis. I think we have a punchers chance there. Let’s get crazy, Arch Madness.
West Coast Conference: Gonzaga -120 (DK)
Like the Sun Belt, Gonzaga is slotted into the semifinals of the WCC Tournament. I think that the two teams that can cause problems in this tournament are on the opposite side of the bracket with Saint Mary’s (Oregon State & Santa Clara). I think Saint Mary’s has the potential to slip up against one of those teams, and I think Gonzaga cruises in their semifinal game. Gonzaga will be favored against whoever meets them in the final. Even if it is the Gaels, no way it is happening for a third time. Give me the Zags.
SOCON (Southern Conference):Pass
This conference is wide open. We will definitely be involved from a single game perspective, but no clear value on a winner here in my opinion.
Big Sky: Montana +310(DK)
We had to get involved in Starch Madness, right? Montana is the play here. Hot at the right time is an understatement. The Grizzlies are entering the Big Sky tournament winning 11 of their last 12 conference games. I like their side of the bracket in comparison to UNC (the other one), however these two very likely meet in the final. I will gladly take Montana +310.
Southland Conference: Pass
McNeese in a landslide. Not interested in laying the big number.
Colonial: Charleston +350(FD)
Towson was a fantastic regular season story, but Charleston is the class of this league and will prove it in the tournament setting. This is my favorite ticket.
North Florida -3.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FD) **Best Bet**
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UConn -12.5 : KenPom has this game as an 8 point spread. The opener was always going to be a tick high due to the spot, but then we also received this news yesterday..
I gladly jumped at the opener of 12.5 last night after digesting this news. On the surface, it appears that UConn won a semi-close game back in January at Georgetown. A 68-60 final. However, that scoreline is very misleading. The Huskies were up 23 with 8 minutes to go & it was one of those games where UConn didn’t score for the final 3 or 4 minutes & Georgetown was able to garbage it up to make it look respectable. Thomas Sorber was a real factor in that game (as he always is). He was able to grab 5 of team’s 11 offensive rebounds and record 4 of the team’s 6 blocks. His absence is going to be greatly missed in this one. Especially on the offensive end against a foul happy Tarris Reed Jr and Samson Johnson. UConn continues to rank near the bottom of the country in free throw rate allowed. This appears to be a good matchup though. Georgetown is 354th in free throw rate & Sorber had 105 of the team’s 411 attempts on the season.
I love the spot & I love the matchup against the Hoyas without Sorber. Happy to lay the big number here.
Score Prediction:UConn 78 – Georgetown 61
Maryland -3.5 : College Park is going to be an inferno. This will be B1G home court at it’s finest. That is definitely a big player in my handicap tonight.
The Terps are going to have a massive advantage from behind the arc. The Spartans come into this game 335th in 3point rate and 349th in 3point make percentage. Maryland ranks 30th in the country in 3point make percentage. ShotQuality shows that this isn’t fluky. The Terps are 26th and 29th in Off of the Dribble and Catch & Shoot 3PT SQ PPP. Maryland is averaging 9 three pointers made per game at the Xfinity Center, and I think they touch double digits tonight.
Maryland also has in the answer in the post that most do not against the deep Michigan State frontline. Derik Queen and Julian Reese are arguably the best frontcourt tandem in the country (I can already hear the Vlad and Danny truthers coming at me – I said arguably!). They are both averaging over 9 rebounds per game on the season and I believe they will be able to score & board enough to let the 3 point barrage take over.
Rodney Rice has taken his scoring to the next level after this moment in Bloomington.
His shot making is adding a completely different dimension to this Maryland team. I think they are one of the best starting 5’s in the country with Rice in this form. I will lay the short number tonight as a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Maryland 82 – Michigan State 72
Auburn -12.5 : Welcome to the Jungle baby!
I fear for the profile of the Rebels traveling on the road to Neville tonight.
Some of the warts on their ShotQuality resume (promo code: SNIPER25) are listed above. That is not going to get it done on the road at Neville. The low frequency attacking the rim is one of most concern for me. If you take a look at KenPom, Ole Miss is only 145th in the country in effective field goal %. The Auburn defense ranks 9th. The Tigers offense continues to chart out on KenPom and ShotQuality on a historic level. I just don’t see any way Ole Miss keeps up tonight. It’s been a few weeks since Auburn has delivered a real beat down. I smell one coming tonight. Lay it.
Score Prediction: Auburn 87 – Ole Miss 69
Furman -15.5 : A good ole fashioned Senior Night ass kicking coming your way from upstate South Carolina! Bob Richey continues to have one of the better mid-major programs in the country. The Paladins have eclipsed the 20 win mark for the 6th time in his 8 years at the helm. The Citadel has fallen all the way to 354th in KenPom. This is going to be a bludgeoning.
The Citadel offense will not be able to keep up in this one. The Bulldogs have been playing teams tough recently, but their analytics are going to catchup in a big way tonight. The Citadel ranks 352nd in the Shot Quality adjusted offensive rating. SQ also shows that they are due for regression on their measly 0.97 PPP on the season to 0.95. Furman sits at 1.09 PPP on the season and Shot Quality shows that they should be even better at 1.10.
This will likely turn into a three point contest and The Citadel will lose that battle. The Bulldogs continue to be at 49th in the country in 3PT rate while being 344th in the country in 3PT %. Maybe try adapting to your personnel?! Furman ranks 4th in the country at 3PT rate and makes them at a 34.2% clip. This is going to be an ass kicking. Not overthinking it. Laying the big number for my 2nd Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Furman 84 – Citadel 60
Penn State/Indiana over 149.5 : Both of these teams seem a bit rejuvenated after a brutal middle stretch of conference season. I think that lends itself to an inspired performance on the offensive end from both sides tonight.
These teams met on January 5th at The Palestra and scored a total of 148 points. They were able to reach this total even with Penn State going through a 9ish minute drought of scoring only 2 points. The pace and FT attempts from the previous matchup are similar to my thinking for tonight’s game. Penn State continues to be one of the faster paced teams in the country. Ace Baldwin gets this team out and running and they are 44th in tempo per KenPom. Indiana has been a pace chameleon this year, but that has mostly been dictated by their opponents. I think that happens again tonight and we get a higher scoring game. I will take the over.
Mississippi State -2.5 (7:00pm – SECN) (DK)**Best Bet**
Illinois +4.5 (8:30pm – FS1) (MGM)
Nevada +4 (9:00pm – MWN)(Caesars)
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Oklahoma +14 : The Sooners are a good basketball team. The SEC gauntlet has plummeted Oklahoma down to a 3-9 conference record, but I still have major trust in this team analytically. Especially on offense. Check out some of their fantastic rankings courtesy of ShotQuality (use promo code: SNIPER25 .. for a discount on your first purchase)
This profile should keep the Sooners around long enough to cover this big spread. I believe in that because I have a good feeling that the Sooners are going to be able to neutralize some of the Florida 3PT attack that the Gators have been bludgeoning opponents with. Not only does Oklahoma shoot it well from 3, they can also defend it. The Sooners rank 11th in the country in opponent three point percentage per KenPom. They are also Top 60 in both offensive and defensive Rim & 3 ShotQuality PPP. I expect our Gators to more than likely win this game with ease at the end, but don’t be surprised if Oklahoma hangs around for a while.
Score Prediction:Florida 84 – Oklahoma 74
Purdue +3.5 : Buy low time on the Boilers. Purdue is coming off of 2 straight losses & traveling to East Lansing against a Sparty team that just punked Illinois in primetime on Saturday night. Yet, we only see a 3.5 spread. You know the drill.
Braden Smith is undefeated against the Spartans in his career. That’s not changing tonight.
Michigan assistant coach Mike Boynton told @MattNorlander that Braden Smith is the best point guard he’s ever coached against not named Steph Curry. pic.twitter.com/lSJ3haejbh
Braden has been one of the better guards in the pick & roll that I have ever seen in the college game. That is not an exaggeration. It is mesmerizing to watch. I think that Michigan State could have a ton of trouble with this tonight. From my eye test, they have struggled a bit in these scenarios and apply drop coverages quite often. That is not a recipe for success against Braden. I did some digging & ShotQuality confirmed my inclinations.
With this matchup advantage, I am going to take the Boilermakers with the points tonight. I think this will be a tight game down the stretch and I will gladly take a full possession cushion. I think Purdue squeaks out a close on on the road. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Purdue 76 – Michigan State 72
Mississippi State -2.5 : The Bulldogs will finally win a game at the Hump. I repeat .. The Bulldogs will finally win a game at the Hump. Mississippi State has dropped three in a row at home. That losing streak ends tonight.
Texas A&M is a very fun team to follow and pull for. They always give their all and the games tend to get hectic & exciting. I do worry about their Shot Quality profile a tad though for a long term success perspective. For starters, ShotQuality shows that Texas A&M is receiving a bit of luck on the defensive end. They are allowing 0.98 PPP and SQ expects that to be closer to 1.07. That is some serious regression that could be heading their way shortly. Also, take a look at these dreadful ranks on SQ:
348th in Transition Efficiency
358th in Defense Against Shots Attacking the Rim
347th in Three Point Efficiency
354th in Three Point Rate Allowed
The Aggies are getting away with all of this by offensive rebounding (1st in the country), turning over their opponents, and getting to the line. Mississippi State will be able to hold their own in these departments tonight I believe. The Bulldogs are one of my analytical darlings that I always speak of. This team is 19th in SQ adjusted offensive rating, and 7th defensively. They are also Top 40 in offensive rebounding, not turning the ball over, and shots attacking the rim. Key areas as we saw above that lends me to believe they can win this game tonight. I think the regression monster comes out to play on A&M defensively. Mississippi State wins a big one. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Mississippi State 76 – Texas A&M 69
Illinois +4.5 : The Illinois flatline from Saturday night isn’t going to scare me away today. ShotQuality graded that out as a win for the Illini. A large helping of fluky results from the looks they got over those final 7 minutes spiraled that game away. My judgement of this team has not changed at all.
This is one of the tougher matchups in the Big 10 for John Tonje in my opinion. I would expect him to draw a matchup with Will Riley for the majority of this game. Riley is flying under the radar due to the exceptional freshmen class we have in the game, but this dude needs more shine.
Tonje was only 5-15 from the field in the first meeting against the Illini this season. Riley wasn’t getting as much run as he is now, so I think adding more of him to the defensive mix could cause Tonje additional problems. I also think that Kasparas Jakucionis is unguardable with the defenders that Wisconsin has at their disposal. He went for 24 in the first meeting, and I think we see more of the same today. This is one of those rare scenarios in a conference season where I am sure that a team of “equal quality” has a matchup edge and will run a double on a conference opponent. Not overthinking it here. Give me the points with the Illini. I think they win a close one.
Score Prediction: Illinois 82 – Wisconsin 80
Nevada +4 : The Wolfpack are going to own the glass in this matchup. Nevada is 5th in the country in average height of their rotation per KenPom, and Colorado State is 197th. The Rams are only 266th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Nevada comes in at 31st in defensive rebounding. With the perceived minimal opportunity for second chance points for Colorado State, I think Nevada can hang tight in this one.
Nevada has had a really disappointing season. Many were thinking this team had a chance for an at-large bid in the preseason. I do think they have potentially turned a corner though. The competition has been weak, but Nevada is on a 4 game win streak. The last three have been in blowout fashion. Is this team finally reaching it’s potential?! I think it is certainly possible. The field goal percentage on offense is through the roof, and the clamps are finally coming down again defensively. Give me the points tonight in game that I think will come down to the wire.
Auburn/Vanderbilt under 157.5 : What a season it has been for our Commodores. There has been no let off since our Charleston Classic love affair. I think it has been understated just how awesome they have been on the defensive end of the court.
Yes, the Vanderbilt Commodores are the 3rd best defense in the country per Shot Quality’s adjusted rating. This unit is going to help keep us under the total tonight. Here are a few key areas from their SQ profile that I think can slow down Auburn from reaching the 90’s:
Defense Against 3PT Shooting: 4th
SQ PPP Allowed in Iso: 5th
Rim & 3 SQ PPP Allowed: 7th
Vanderbilt is also 17th in the country in turnover rate on offense. There are 4 point guards in this rotation. That will help keep Auburn out of their transition game. This under is going to Anchor Down.
Score Prediction:Auburn 80 – Vanderbilt72
BYU +2 : This BYU team continues to be an analytical darling of mine. I did pick against them over the weekend, but it was against Cincinnati who I also strongly believe in analytically (they are finally turning it around!). I will gladly take the 2 points on the road here tonight against a Mountaineer team that is continuing to fall back to their baseline.
The Cougars offense is LEGIT. They are ranked 17th in KenPom & 18th in ShotQuality. The defense has caused some of their issues lately, but a SQ deep dive shows it is a bit of bad shot making luck from their opponents. BYU is still ranked 10th in the country in the adjusted defensive rating. When you have a team that is Top 20 in both units on SQ, you need to pay attention. Especially in a matchup with a Mountaineer team that has been over achieving. SQ ranks WVU 102nd in their adjusted offensive rating. KenPom is not far behind at 104th. They are still due for some regression even after their 2-4 slide. The DeVries injury is finally catching up to this team a bit.
I like BYU to come into Morgantown and pick-up a nice road win. Give me the two.
Score Prediction: BYU 70 – WVU 67
UConn +4.5 : Red Panda? Dollar Beer night? The hell with them. In all seriousness, Omaha will be electric tonight. I will not dispute that. I also appreciate the extra bump that I am getting on the spread due to this.
UConn let us down against the Johnnies on Friday. The Huskies just couldn’t shake the turnover bug after an electric start to the game. This was following a game where they turned it over 25 times against Marquette (still won). 47 turnovers in two games.
Howeverrrrrrrrrr .. if there is a team that can help you shake this bug, it is the Creighton Bluejays. Creighton is 360th out of 364 Division 1 basketball teams in turning their opponents over. This gives an immediate boost to UConn when handicapping this game. Their biggest weakness right now cannot be exploited.
UConn lost a very tight one to this Creighton team in Storrs about a month ago. Liam McNeeley is back now and I think that makes a massive difference in this matchup. He is a certified PTP’er.
With the addition of McNeeley and Creighton’s inability to force turnovers, I am not sure why we are seeing Creighton as a 4.5 point favorite here. Especially after UConn was laying 7.5 at home on January 18th without McNeeley. I made it Creighton -1 and would have leaned UConn there. I will gladly take the points and I think UConn wins a close one. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: UConn 73 – Creighton 71
Pitt +5 : This is about as low of a value as you will get on Pitt this year. Going 2-7 in your last 9 with the wins being Syracuse & UNC will do that to you. I cannot blame you guys if you don’t want to tail me here. However, I simply must play the number.
I love the fight that Damian Dunn brings to the game. The guy gives 110% every time he is out there. However, his injury may be addition by subtraction for the makeup of this Panthers team. Pitt was 2-7 in his return from his hand injury. You could tell it was still bothering him and the FG% also told that story. The fractured elbow against UNC will cost him the season. I wish him well on that recovery, but this injury might allow Pitt to get back into their grove that we saw earlier this season. The usage of Lowe and Leggett will rise back up and that is a very, very good thing.
SMU’s defensive SQ profile concerns me. They rank 305th in spacing allowed, 297th in shot making, 335th in defensive rebounding, and 309th in open three rate allowed. I think this 18-5 record may be a bit of smoke and mirrors. They have been kicking the shit out of the bottom of the horrible ACC. Here are the teams they have beaten in their 7-1 run in their last 8: Georgia Tech, Virginia, Miami, NC State, Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech. They got blitzed by 25 points to Louisville who was the only Top 80 KenPom team they played during that stretch. I think Pitt will be able to keep this one close tonight. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: SMU 78 – Pitt 77
Oregon -8.5 : I really feel for Northwestern. It is a program that I have enjoyed watching over the last few seasons, but these injuries are just too much to overcome in the new age Big 10 gauntlet. Barnhizer and Leach meant way too much to this short rotation. This was a major reason why we backed Washington in a Best Bet spot the other night, and we were able to cash that one with relative ease.
Nick Martinelli is a phenomenal player. He just cannot handle the entire load by himself. Martinelli was gassed by the end of the Washington game and his effectiveness took a dip. Oregon has so many bodies they can send his way. Brandon Angel, Supreme Cook, Kwame Evans Jr. etc. I think it will be a long night for the Wildcats offensively if Martinelli 20+ FGA is still their gameplan (not sure what else it would be). I also think this is going to be a massive Nate Bittle game offensively for Oregon. Northwestern got blasted on the boards and around the rim by Osobor and the Huskies. Nicholson is the only line of defense in the frontcourt & on the glass for the Wildcats. I expect him to have massive issues tonight.
Oregon has been playing better than their recent results have showed. They melted the big lead away at Sparty over the weekend, but that was still graded as an 82-72 ShotQuality win. The Ducks will let out all of the frustrations from their losing skid out on Northwestern tonight. Maybe check some alt lines if you are into that sort of thing. This is my 2nd Best Bet.
Washington +2 (10:30pm – BTN)(Caesars)**Best Bet**
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State of the Union: The rough week that we have endured snowballed into a bagel last night. A few close ones, but when you are walking through a blizzard that is what happens. Unfortunately, these weeks happen a few times a season. I wish they were avoidable, but it’s just the cost of doing business in this space. I will not be changing my process. That is how things can snowball even further. We have just received a visit from the Regression Monster that I always speak of. I am sorry for the recent results, but just know that I am continuing to put in the work for all of us. I have always stated to maybe take a seat until I heat back up when these times occur, but as always I leave all of the decisions up to y’all.
I decided against a write-up today. I am still heated from last night and I don’t want to half ass a write-up for you guys. Will potentially get one out tomorrow. Definitely will have one for Saturday. Let’s heat up and get back to the winning ways! Onward and upward. Thank y’all.
** All given on X. Any other adds will be tweeted out without a write-up
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Villanova -1.5 : This is the return leg from a conference meeting that we saw on December 21st earlier this season. Creighton was able to pull away in the 2H and get a homecourt win. I firmly believe Villanova returns the favor today.
Creighton is 360th in the country in defensive turnover percentage. Villanova’s methodical offense that runs through Brickus and Dixon is a terrible matchup for a Jays team that lacks in ball pressure. The Wildcats rank 2nd in ShotQuality’s offensive spacing metric.
This mismatch led to Villanova only having ONE turnover on the road in Omaha. One. Creighton was able to win the game behind a scorching three point performance as a team. The Jays shot 14-25 from three. These shots snowballed momentum in a very tough place to play, and Villanova just couldn’t catch up. I believe the matchup edge listed above will be a huge factor today. Also, the Wildcats have moved up to the #1 three point percentage team in the country. I think they steal back the 3point edge at Finneran.
Nova wins the three point and turnover battle and gets a big time home win. Will lay the tiny number.
Score Prediction:Villanova 73 – Creighton 68
Ole Miss +6.5 : This is one of my favorite plays of the season. The Rebs are winnin’ this one outright.
If you are going to come at Auburn, you best have a ShotQuality profile like the one you see below:
I trust Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray to be able to handle the ball pressure that Pearl will throw at them. Keeping Auburn from getting in transition is going to be key here. In the event that live ball turnovers do happen, Ole Miss ranks Top 30 in the country in transition defense per Shot Quality.
It also needs to be pointed out that Auburn has consistently been on the receiving end of poor shot making luck by their opponents. I will not necessarily call these outcomes a “fluke”, I believe their spirts and momentum can have a major impact on open looks for their opponents. Especially at the Jungle. They are on the road today though. I think the Regression Monster might come out to play.
Auburn has barely skated by in a few road contests recently (USC & UGA). I believe that Ole Miss’ ability to take care of the ball & create will be enough to pull off a win in this fiery home spot. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 74 – Auburn 73
Oklahoma -2.5 : I side with KenPom instead of the AP Poll here. KenPom projections have this as a 5 point Sooner victory. I made this game -5.5. I think Oklahoma has a chance to win comfortably in this one. I would’ve played Oklahoma up to 4. I will gladly lay the 2.5.
It is an awesome story to see Vanderbilt at 16-4 and ranked in the polls in Mark Byington’s first season at the helm. We were on this team early and rode them all of the way to the Charleston Classic championship game. We were even able to continue to grab value on the Dores early in SEC play. The value in their market price has been completely drained at this point though. In fact, I think the pendulum has finally swung the other way. It is time to step in and make a play against Vandy.
The Sooners are finally finding their footing after a rough start to SEC play. Oklahoma was 13-0 entering conference play and then proceeded to lose their first four SEC games. They have won 2 out of 3 since, and the offense continues to be LEGIT. The Sooners are 26th and 28th in the KenPom and ShotQuality adjusted offensive ratings. Vanderbilt has been impressive in conference, but a lot of that great form has come in Nashville. The Dores are 1-2 in conference on the road (lone win at LSU) & allowing 83.3 points per game in those contests. Oklahoma should be able to score at will in this one. Jeremiah Fears is a matchup nightmare for Vanderbilt. Take a look at his points prop for tomorrow. It might be worth a play.
I really love how little of Jeremiah Fears' game feels predetermined. One of the best handles and improvisers in the country. pic.twitter.com/7AKPzthV9X
Sooners win this one comfortably at home. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Oklahoma 80 – Vanderbilt 71
UConn +7.5 : So you’re saying there’s a chance?
UConn head coach Dan Hurley announced that Liam McNeeley is a game-time decision for Saturday vs. No. 9 Marquette. Has not played since New Year's Day at DePaul and was doubtful heading into Wednesday night's win before being ruled out.
Could this be the game that Liam McNeeley returns? I doubt it. This is probably just a ploy by UConn to have Marquette prepare based on a maybe. However, I made this number 5.5 even without McNeeley. I will gladly jump in and make this a play. If McNeeley is activated, we are going to be sitting pretty with this number.
I believe that UConn’s biggest weakness could be hidden a bit in this matchup. The Huskies have put their opponents to the free throw line at an alarming rate this season. This has been a major reason for their “disappointing” season to this point. The Huskies rank 343rd in opponent free throw rate. Marquette’s inability to get to the line could be key in keeping UConn in this one. The Golden Eagles are only 333rd in getting to the stripe. This could be UConn’s saving grace.
Dan Hurley has owned Shaka since he arrived at Marquette. Hurley is 6-2 in these matchups, including 3-0 a season ago. I trust Hurley to have gameplan to keep us in this one. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: Marquette 75 – UConn 70
Gonzaga +1 : The Zags have already flipped to a favorite here. I have been burned by the Gaels several times this year, but I have to continue to trust my evaluation and numbers. I think the Zags win this one.
Gonzaga’s metrics are well beyond what their record shows. The Zags are still 10th in KenPom with a 16-6 record. They are also 2nd in Shot Quality’s adjusted offensive rating (5th in KenPom). Their defense is also rated highly by ShotQuality and the Zags are 5th overall in the adjusted ShotQuality rating. Shot Quality also shows that the Saint Mary’s defense might not be as good as the surface numbers show. The Gaels only rank 48th in the adjusted Shot Quality defensive rating. Saint Mary’s has played a relatively easy schedule to this point. This might be the night that the defense gets exposed.
Mark Few & this group are very used to the atmosphere in Moraga. While it will get a little rowdy, it is still a small gym atmosphere. This was an “upset” spot (SMC was laying 3.5 at close) people were picking last year as well, and Gonzaga cruised to a 70-57 victory. I like Gonzaga to walk into Moraga and pull off another victory.
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