(photo: FAU Athletics)

24/25 Season Record: 108-91

12/21 Card :

• Mississippi State +1.5 (12:30pm – CBS) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
• Florida Atlantic +12.5 (2:00pm – FS1) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
• UNC +1.5 (3:00pm – CBS) (FD)
• Pepperdine ML -115 (3:00pm – ESPN+) (DK)
• Villanova/Creighton over 143 (4:00pm – FS1) (Caesars)
• Purdue +9.5 (4:30pm – ESPN) (FD)
• Oregon/Stanford under 150.5 (8:00pm – BTN) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*

————————————

Sorry fellas. Only had time for the Best Bets on the write-up.

Mississippi State +1.5 : The SEC has been getting a ton of love in the media across the last few weeks. Deservingly so. This conference is on another level.

(credit: barttorvik.com)

The SEC is an astounding 51-19 against Top 100 opponents in non-con play. No other conference is even at .500. With all of the praise that the SEC is receiving, I feel like one of the better teams in the conference is still getting slept on. This Mississippi State team is for real. One of my analytical darlings. Check out their Shot Quality profile.

The Bulldog defense is the edge in today’s matchup. As you can see above, they are defending at an elite level. 0.95 SQ PPP allowed is not something you see often. In comparison, Memphis is sitting at 1.09. The turnover battle is going to be key here. This is also another area where Mississippi State excels. The Bulldogs rank 2nd (!!!) in the country in offensive turnover %. Chris Jans has instilled valuing the basketball with this group. They are also Top 15 in the country in BOTH steal percentage and steal percentage allowed. Memphis ranks 286th in turnover percentage on offense and are 327th in non-steal turnover %. This is a masssssssssive edge fellas.

I don’t see the Forum being too hostile today. Students are home for break and it is an 11:30am local tip. I think Mississippi State rolls in and handles business. Add another tally to the SEC.

Score Prediction: Mississippi State 78 – Memphis 72

FAU +12.5 : This is just too many points. If you are just now placing this bet, you can even get a 13.5. It is not computing in my head as to why the Owls are this big of an underdog.

Florida Atlantic has been on the receiving end of some horrible shot making luck from their opponents. The Owls rank 356th in the country in opponent three point make percentage. Woof. This is not their fault though! Shot Quality shows that FAU is 33rd in the country in Open 3Point rate allowed. This is going to correct itself in a hurry. Michigan State is a great candidate to be the team that starts the correction. The Spartans only have 62 three point makes in 11 games so far this season. They are shooting 27.8% from distance and are 268th in the country in Open 3 Point rate. Let’s pile up some bricks for an Owls opponent for once.

I also think that Baba Miller is a great matchup edge for the Owls against the Spartans a well. The Sparty bigs struggle with stretch 4’s. Baba has NBA level stretch-4 talent.

https://twitter.com/wilkomcv/status/1868341500104610189

I think FAU easily wins the three point edge in this game. I also think they can compete in the interior. I made this game -8. There is a ton of value here.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 82 – FAU 74

Oregon/Stanford under 150.5 : I love our chances at the under here. It is important to note that this game is being played at a neutral site in San Jose. Let’s hope those screws are tightened up!

These defenses rock. Oregon is at 1.03 SQ PPP allowed & Stanford is at 1.00. This is very important with a pace that I believe will be slower than the market suggests. Dana Altman and Kyle Smith are very familiar with each other from their Pac-12 battles over the years. This will be an absolute chess match with some zones thrown in here and there. Oregon is 152nd in adjusted tempo per KenPom, but I think this game plays much closer to where Stanford ranks in that category (222nd).

Short and sweet on this one. I love my projected pace and the defenses. Team rims.

Score Prediction: Oregon 74 – Stanford 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

(photo: Bill Barrett)

24/25 Season Record: 101-88

Yesterday was frustrating to say the least. 6-0 was more likely than 3-3 with where these games were with a under a minute to play. Yet, we got stuck with a 3-3 shit sandwich. Hopefully the bounces come our way today. No write-up, but posting the card in the blog to get a sense of how many are following along with our plays. Let’s get hot!

12/18 Card :

• Georgetown +3.5 (6:30pm – CBSSN) (Caesars) 
• William & Mary -2.5 (7:00pm) (MGM)
• UMass -2.5 (7:0pm – ESPN+) (DK)
• Saint Louis -7.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (FD) *BEST BET*

(photo: Kansas State Athletics)

24/25 Season Record: 98-85

12/17 Card :

• South Carolina +1.5 (7:00pm – SECN) (given on X yesterday) 
• North Carolina +4.5 (7:00pm – ESPN) (given on X yesterday)
• Villanova -8.5 (7:30pm – Peacock) (DK)
• Georgia State +39.5 (8:00pm – SECN+/ESPN+) (DK)
• Kansas State +1 (8:0pm – ESPN+) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*

————————————

South Carolina +1.5 : We have talked about watching out for sleepy home spots when the students are away. This is not one of those scenarios. Colonial Life Arena will be rocking tonight for this rivalry matchup. Clemson is 1-1 in true road games this season. They got beaten pretty handily by Boise State early on. The win was over a struggling Miami team a little over a week ago. I think this could be a tricky spot for the the Tigers.

This is going to be Ian Schieffelin’s toughest test of the season. Collin Murray-Boyles is playing at a 1st team All-SEC level.

CMB has seen a major uptick in both scoring and rebounding in his sophomore season. He has recorded a double-double in three straight. The rebounding will be a major factor today. The Chef has carried Clemson to this strong start with his presence on the glass. I think CMB eliminates that edge tonight.

As you can see above, the SEC is on an unprecedented run to start the year. I am going to back the Gamecocks here as a short underdog at home. South Carolina gets a big time rivalry win at the CLA.

Score Prediction: South Carolina 68 – Clemson 66

UNC +4.5 : This is such a big spot for the Tar Heels. UNC is facing a #7 ranked Florida team in Charlotte with a semi-home crowd. They need to get this one.

Boy, our preseason Florida tickets are looking quite nice right now. We have Florida +6000 to win the title and +2700 to win the SEC. Love it. If I am going to nitpick our Gators, it is going to be with the strength of schedule to this point. I stumbled upon this tweet from Matthew Winick yesterday and it is so true

North Carolina has defensive struggles themselves, but the offense has still been as high octane as we are used to seeing from the Tar Heels. They are 10th in adj. SQ offensive rating and 21st in KenPom offensive efficiency. This poses a serious threat for Florida as they are due for regression defensively per SQ even with the schedule they have played thus far.

I am confident North Carolina can keep this close. I think there is a solid chance that they can even win the game behind the Charlotte crowd at the Jumpman Invitational. Give me the points.

Score Prediction: North Carolina 84 – Florida 83

Villanova -8.5 : This is one of those games where it is a clash of similar approaches. Both teams want to play to low possessions and force their opponent into midrange jumpers. Both teams are Top 50 in Rim & 3 Shot Quality PPP allowed. Yet, we see a spread of 8.5 in this Big East conference matchup. Why? The Nova offense.

Villanova is rated 13th (!!!) in KenPom offensive efficiency. I feel like people have lost sight of this after their slow start to the season from a record perspective. The Wildcats are also:

• 16th in Effective FG%
• 14th in Offensive Reb. %
• 9th in 3Point %
• 14th in FT %

The Seton Hall offense is non-existent. They are rated 296th in KenPom and 310th in Shot Quality on the offensive end. Their plan of “mucking up” a game will not work in this matchup. Villanova already lives in the muck. They will welcome this style of game and outscore Seton Hall in the process. I am laying the points here.

Score Prediction: Villanova 69 – Seton Hall 57

Georgia State +39.5 : Auburn rocks. Like, ROCKS. But this number is a bit out of hand, right? My numbers are pointing this to being around 33. The Tigers have certainly outperformed analytical projections to start the year, but when you start to reach laying near 40 points.. then that ability diminishes greatly.

This Georgia State roster is not full of slouches. Nutter and Lane can score the basketball from a backcourt perspective. Edwards and McMullen can rebound the basketball. I just don’t think a team of this caliber should be getting 39 points. Kentucky and Mississippi State did reach the century mark in their games against the Panthers this season, but Georgia State was able to score 66 and 76 points in those games to thwart any risk of losing by 40 points or more.

I would be stunned to see The Jungle rocking as it has been earlier on this season. I think that the homecourt advantage will still be strong, but just turned down a tick due to the students leaving for the holidays. Especially against a team like Georgia State. This could be considered a sleepy spot for Auburn. I will take the 39 and a half.

Score Prediction: Auburn 95 – Georgia State 61

Kansas State +1 : I am coming at the Drake throne again. This time I won’t miss.

As you know, we are very familiar with the Bulldogs. I watched all three of their games in person at the Charleston Classic. They unfortunately ripped our hearts out and beat Vanderbilt in the championship game to ruin our future. I walked away super impressed at what McCollum and his group from the D2 level was able to already achieve that early on in the season. However, Kansas State is a threat that Drake has not faced thus far.

Drake’s major advantage in the Charleston Classic was winning the offensive glass. They have continued that advantage and have risen all of the way to 19th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. I have a strong feeling that Drake will take a step back in this regard today against a Big 12 frontline. Kansas State ranks 50th in this category and I feel will continue to get stronger now that Coleman Hawkins and David N’Guessan are getting more familiar playing with one another. I do not see that advantage happening again today for Drake. Without the rebounding edge, I think Drake could be in trouble here.

Kansas State has been off since December 6th. I have read many behind the scenes reports from those in Manhattan that seem to believe Jerome Tang has righted this ship during the time off. The dismissal of Achor Achor might be an addition by subtraction for this group. It seems like a lot of the drama has subsided. I feel confident backing them in this spot just 1.5 hours down the road in Kansas City, MO. We are getting some nice CLV here. Let’s bring it home. Best Bet.

https://twitter.com/wibwKatie/status/1868812286774984885

Score Prediction: Kansas State 73 – Drake 66

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

(photo: University of Dayton Athletics)

Week 5 Record: 12-10 (5-3 Best Bets)

A pretty average 55% week for us. We did hit on 5 out of the 8 Best Bets though. Still wanting to shake Tommy Lloyd into taking a timeout during that brutal 2H stretch for Arizona.

We have solid slates throughout the week. Excited to cap it for you guys. Finals are done, but we need to keep in mind that the student sections at a lot of the venues will be depleted until the new year.

Working through the Monday slate trying to find an edge. Will post if I find one. I will also get the website updated by tomorrow with all of the splits for the season. It has been a while since I have updated for you guys.

Thank y’all for all of the support along the way. We ride again.

(photo: Arizona Desert Swarm)

24/25 Season Record: 89-78

12/14 Card :

• Memphis +6.5 (11:00am – ESPN2) (given on X yesterday) *** No write-up with the early tip
• Texas A&M / Purdue over 143 (12:00pm – CBS) (DK) **No write-up on this one. Just added at 11:34am**
• Arizona -1.5 (3:00pm –ESPN2) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
• Kansas -13.5 (3:15pm – ESPN) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
• Santa Clara -3 (4:30pm – BallerTV) (given on X yesterday)
• UC Irvine +2.5 (5:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X yesterday)
• Dayton +1.5 (7:00pm – CBSSN) (given on X yesterday) *Best Bet*
• Oklahoma State +5.5 (8:00pm – ESPNU) (given on X yesterday)
• Boise State +3.5 (9:00pm – MW Network) (given on X yesterday)

————————————

Arizona -1.5 : This is not a “true” home game, but the Wildcats are playing just down the road in Phoenix. Arizona is still getting capped with a homecourt advantage for me.

Arizona is the 1st team that UCLA has faced this season that can match them defensively. The Wildcats come into today ranked 38th in KenPom and 21st on Shot Quality. That matters. I have a strong feeling that UCLA’s offense will get a exposed a bit today.

As you can see above, UCLA is due to perform a little bit worse on both ends of the court per Shot Quality. This is a bit concerning with the strength of schedule they have played so far. They are 1-1 against Top 100 KenPom teams. They lost by 8 to New Mexico on a neutral early on, and then won on a banked in buzzer beater three over Oregon last time out.

We are getting massive CLV here. Up to -4.5 at some markets. I am feeling pretty great about this one. Arizona gets the win they desperately need. Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Arizona 79 – UCLA 70

Kansas -13.5 : The Jayhawks are returning to Allen Fieldhouse today. I am very worried for you NC State.

Kansas really embarrassed themselves on the road the last two times out. A lot of cracks in their armor were brought to light. I am not overreacting as much as the general public though. I have stated many times that I believed a lot of the Kansas struggles would come on the road this season. I am not factoring those performances into my handicap today at all really. This is still firmly a Top 10 team in the country in my estimation.

I am worried about NC State’s ability to score the ball today. Their offensive gameplan plays right into the hands of Kansas’ defensive scheme. The Wolfpack are 327th in the country in Rim and 3 %, 312th in SQ PPP on Cuts, and 295th in the country in SQ PPP in the halfcourt. They also struggle in P&R ball screen scenarios so that takes away any advantage that you have against Hunter Dickinson. NC State is great in transition, but I just don’t see many opportunities for that today.

I like Kansas to win BIG today. This is my 2nd Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Kansas 83 – NC State 64

Santa Clara -3 : There is a major injury doubt for Bradley in this game.

https://twitter.com/pjstar/status/1866958664449286625

Duke Deen is one of the better players at the mid-major level that you probably have never heard of. I like Santa Clara at the current number regardless, but I will obviously love this play even more if he is deemed inactive.

Cliché time. Santa Clara might be the best 5-5 team in the country. The Broncos are still in the Top 85 in both KenPom and Shot Quality’s overall rankings. They need to start winning games though. I think they matchup well personnel wise with Bradley. The Broncos will own the paint and glass tonight with a significant advantage height and length wise. I also think this Bradley start has been a bit of smoke and mirrors.

The Braves are due for some serious regression per Shot Quality. They also got blown out 91-74 by Washington State in their only other Top 100 KenPom matchup. I like our chances with the Broncos today.

Score Prediction: Santa Clara 76 – Bradley 69

UC Irvine +2.5 : The Anteaters are on a mission! UC Irvine is all the way up to 53rd in KenPom after starting the season 9-0. Tied for the nation’s longest winning streak. Let’s get into why I think they get it done today on the road at Oregon State.

UC Irvine ranks 6th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. That is no fluke. Russell Turner has had the Anteaters in the Top 100 in 9 out of the 10 previous seasons (109th in lone other). He is a phenomenal coach & needs more respect. This is a complete team. Not only does the defense ROCK, but the offense is getting it done as well. Irvine ranks 1st (!!!) in the country in free throw percentage. They are also scoring 1.08 PPP and SQ backs that up to be a true indicator of their looks. That is more than plenty with how well the defense has performed.

Oregon State’s offensive gameplan is on the verge of crumbling. They are now 9th in the country in the ISO play-type frequency. They do find success when they try P&R ball screens and attacking the rim per SQ, but UC Irvine is elite at defending both. I just love this matchup for Irvine. Give us the points. It’s Bent Leuchten SZN everyone.

Score Prediction: UC Irvine 68 – Oregon State 66

Dayton +1.5 : This is my 2nd favorite home atmosphere “spot” of the season so far. Remember that Clemson spot that we pounced on against Kentucky a little over a week ago? I think UD Arena could be just as fiery today.

Marquette has found a ton of success in forcing turnovers and getting out in transition this year. Dayton is not going to turn the ball over. They are 13th in the country in turnover rate, and are rated 4th in the country in passing per Shot Quality. Malachi Smith has been awesome this year. It is great to see him healthy and facilitating in this offense. Up to 5.5 assists per game for the year.

Marquette is 201st in Rim & 3 rate allowed. I think that catches up with them today in this pressure cooker environment we will have in Dayton. The Flyers get a monster win for their resume. This is my THIRD (and final) Best Bet of the day.

Score Prediction: Dayton 78 – Marquette 73

Oklahoma State +5.5 : OU has had a phenomenal start to the season. Are they really 5.5 points better than OSU on a neutral in OKC? Nope.

Jeremiah Fears and the Oklahoma backcourt has been awesome this year. However, they are facing a little bit of a different challenge today. Steve Lutz has his guards in pressure defense at all times. The Cowboys are 18th in the country in forcing turnovers. I do not think Oklahoma will have the freedom to get into their usual flow in this game.

There is another monster edge in this game that I have uncovered. OU ranks 311th in the country in opponent’s percentage of points coming from the free throw line. The Cowboys are 36th in the country in free throw rate. I believe that the charity stripe will be crucial in keeping them competitive in this one.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma 77 – Oklahoma State 75

Boise State +3.5 : This line is an indicator that the books have not changed their tune on St. Mary’s power rating. I haven’t either. They have burned us several times, but I have not come away after those games thinking that we have had it totally wrong. I think have been pretty fortunate. Shot Quality data backs that up. SQ had our Utah game rated as an 85-72 win over the Gaels. It also shows that they should be closer to 1.05 PPP allowed on the season instead of .98. I will continue to side with the books in my assumption of this team.

Boise State remains an analytical darling even with their 6-3 record. They are 15th in Shot Quality’s adjusted overall rating. They have Top 20 units in both offense and defense per the data. The Broncos also are still sitting 57th in KenPom. Today is the day they burst through. Their 1.20 SQ PPP will be enough to finally make St. Mary’s pay. This game is similar to Arizona. Not a true home game, but it is still in Idaho. I think the support will be strong. Boise State wins outright. Give us the points. This was close to a Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Boise State 70 – Saint Mary’s 67

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

(photo: x (@ToneLo711)

24/25 Season Record: 87-74

12/5 Card :

• Maine +5.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X)
• Dartmouth/Notre Dame 1H under 66.5 (7:00pm – ACC Extra/ESPN+) (given on X)
• Reyne Smith over 12.5 points (7:00pm – ACC Extra/ESPN+) (give on X)

————————————

Maine +5.5 : Let’s get another Best Bet dawgggg to win outright. I think the Black Bears have a great chance to do so tonight.

I am very impressed with the Maine backcourt. It is not often that you see two guards on the same roster that have the assist/turnover ratios of Kellen Tynes and Jaden Clayton. AJ Lopez has also taken a monster step in the scoring department. He scored 24 points last time out and has insane shooting percentage splits this year (44.3/43.2/94.1). Lopez and the Black Bears have soared all the way to 3rd in the country in free throw percentage. Duquesne is 346th. Quite the disparity. Lopez, Burns and Tynes are all shooting over 85% with at least 27 attempts. That is going to be a huge matchup edge for our underdog tonight. Duquesne ranks 301st in the country in opponent free throw rate per KenPom. Maine is going to get a ton of freebies in this one & Duquesne is likely to miss a lot of theirs.

We got up close and personal with this Duquesne squad on Friday night. They covered our Best Bet with a dominant 2H performance to blow past Delaware. I was pleased to win the bet, but I came away pretty unimpressed with the roster/coaching of this Dukes team. The defense is pretty horrible. A down Delaware team had 22 points before you could blink an eye. They scored 1.22 SQ PPP in that half. Dru Joyce seemed lost at times. I am not so sure he is the right man for the job. Time will tell.

This Maine team is disciplined with taking care of the ball, creating for teammates, and making their free throws. I like that steady hand against a sporadic Duquesne squad. The Black Bears can win this outright. Give us the points.

Score Prediction: Duquesne 67 – Maine 66

Dartmouth/Notre Dame 1H under 66.5 : The Irish will have a stranglehold on the Dartmouth offense to start this one. The Big Green have fallen all of the way to 345th in the KenPom offensive efficiency rating. They also rank 339th in the SQ adjusted offensive rating. Dartmouth is not going to find many easy baskets at the rim tonight. They rank 303rd in efficiency attacking the rim per Shot Quality. Notre Dame ranks 17th in amount of shots around the rim allowed. This is probably going to entice Dartmouth to take even more 3’s than they normally do (which is a lot). Notre Dame is one of the better teams in the country at contesting three pointers. Shot Quality has them at 26th in the country in Open 3PT Rate allowed. Notre Dame has held Houston, Georgia and Syracuse to under 70 points in 3 out of their last 4 games. This unit is gelling well and I want to back them in this spot.

The offense is not humming as well as the defense at the moment for the Irish. The loss of Markus Burton is weighing on that unit heavily. I think Dartmouth could be a team that allows ND to finally get it going in that department, but I am banking on another slow start out of the gate. The edge here is in the 1H instead of the full game in my opinion. Let’s get a slow start.

Score Prediction: 1H Notre Dame 35 – Dartmouth 28

Reyne Smith over 12.5 points : Sniper SZN.

8-0 RUN FOR THE CARDSSSSS

featuring @UofLVillens at the end 🥳

💻 https://t.co/zfeniQVkRG#GoCards pic.twitter.com/gVuyphJdWu

— Louisville Men's Basketball (@LouisvilleMBB) December 8, 2024

Reyne Smith is one of the biggest volume three point shooters that we have in America. He is averaging NINE three point attempts per game. This volume has even gone up a tick over the last two games following Louisville’s injury problems (10.5 attempts per). These injuries also have Reyne playing the most amount of minutes in his career. UTEP is 349th in the country in 3PT % allowed to start the season. I think a big night awaits for our Australian sharpshooter. Bombs away.

Score Prediction: Reyne Smith 15 points

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

(photo: B1G Network)

Week 5 Record: 17-12 (6-1 Best Bets)

Bell answered.

A nice bounce back week! Very proud of the 17-12 week after how Saturday night finished. More importantly …. we went 6-1 on Best Bets!! I have heard from a lot of you that you had a big week tailing & I love to hear it. That’s what it’s all about. Winning together!

It is a very light week for college basketball action until we reach Saturday. The volume will decrease significantly from what we’ve been used to at the beginning of this season. Let’s pick our spots and win big.

I can’t get there on the handful of games today. No need to force. There are several that I am eyeing on Tuesday’s slate. Will spend my time there and provide some early adds tonight.

We ride again.

(photo: Brice Tucker, Deseret News)

24/25 Season Record: 78-69

12/7 Card :

• Virginia/SMU over 135 (2:15pm – CW Network) (Bally)
• UNLV +11.5 (4:00pm – FS1) (given on X last night)
• NC State -3 (4:00pm – ESPNU) (given on X last night)
• Houston TT over 75.5 (5:30pm – ESPN2) (FD)
• Utah -2.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X last night)
• Winthrop -11 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (Bally)
• Colorado State +3.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (MGM)

————————————

UVA/SMU over 135 : A Virginia over. I promise I am not a masochist.

The UVA staff is trying to deploy the same offensive principles that we saw under Tony Bennett. They are failing to do so. This team cannot take care of the basketball. The Cavs rank 292nd in the country in turnover percentage. SMU is 35th in tempo per KenPom, and they are also 2nd in transition frequency per Shot Quality. The Mustangs will feast in transition and should easily get to double digits on points off of turnovers.

I have been hard on Virginia this year, but one thing they can do is shoot the basketball. Virginia ranks 29th in the country in 3point percentage. SMU is 356th in the country in open 3 rate allowed on defense per Shot Quality. I like the matchup edges in this game to get us over this total.

Score Prediction: SMU 74 – Virginia 65

UNLV +11.5 : I had a little birdie share some whispers about the Pop Isaacs news that dropped this morning. We were able to get a great line last night.

This is a severe gut punch to the Jays coming off of their midweek win over #1 Kansas. Creighton just does not have the guard depth to sustain this. UNLV is 34th in the country in free throw rate per Shot Quality. DJ Thomas is great at creating contact. UNLV might have a chance at an upset if they get Ashworth in to foul trouble. Regardless, I think they keep this one close. Some nice CLV here. Bring it home UNLV.

Score Prediction: Creighton 77 – UNLV 70

NC State -3 : It looks like we will receive some nice CLV here as well. -5 and -5.5 at some places. Florida State is not a 7-2 ballclub. They have picked on inferior opponents and lost pretty convincingly against their only power conference opposition. I am not a Seminole believer this season.

FSU has taken advantage of the turnover margin in their wins this season. They are 6th nationally in forcing turnovers. This Wolfpack team is equipped to limit that damage. Michael O’Connell is an incredible floor general. He has a 4.6/1 assist-to-turnover ratio this season. His presence in the NC State backcourt has the Wolfpack 53rd in the country in turnover rate. Florida State will struggle to find points running their “sets” without these turnovers. This team is 218th in Rim & 3 rate even with their gaudy forced turnover percentage.

NC State wins this one at home. Happy to lay the small number we did last night.

Score Prediction: NC State 77 – FSU 69

Houston over 75.5 points : This is going to be a longggggg day for Butler. I was tempted to lay the points here as well, but I see a major edge in the team total. Houston clears 80 today.

The Bulldogs come into this game 328th in the country in turnover rate on offense.

Houston is 24th in forcing turnovers even with the gauntlet they have faced to start the season. It is going to be a layup line at the Fertitta Center. I also think Houston is able to out tough Butler in the post and get plenty of buckets around the rim. LJ Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp will take care of the rest from distance.

I feel confident backing a pissed of Kelvin Sampson team. Let’s get some mud in our blood.

Score Prediction: Houston 81 – Butler 59

Utah -2.5 : Folks, this is one of my favorite bets of the season. The Best Bet on this beautiful Saturday. We got a good number here as well. I see this at 3.5 at most places. Let’s get into why I love this play so much.

The Utes are an analytical darling as you can see from the Shot Quality profile above. Their only loss of the season came at the hands of Mississippi State in Southaven, MS. We all saw what the Bulldogs are capable off this midweek with our Best Bet hit over Pitt. This loss also came without Lawson Lovering in the fold. The 7’1 big made his season debut in late November and had a 16 pt / 8 reb / 3 blk performance last time out. Having Lovering tonight is crucial to compete on the glass with Saxen. Speaking of the glass, the Utes (15th in height per KenPom) are Top 50 in offensive AND defensive rebounding percentage. Saint Mary’s gets a lot of their offense from the offensive glass. I think that is erased tonight.

Utah is also equipped to handle the slow down approach from Saint Mary’s. Look at these halfcourt numbers from Shot Quality!

This is Saint Mary’s first road game of the season. The Gaels didn’t even have to leave California for their MTE. They struggled mightily in these spots last season. A lot of the same crew is back. Utah took them to the cleaners in Moraga last season, and I expect them to do it again tonight.

Score Prediction: Utah 76 – Saint Mary’s 66

Winthrop -11 : KenPom only has this graded as an 8 point win for the Eagles, but I think Vegas is onto something with where they have priced this matchup.

Coastal Carolina should not be winning basketball games. This team is horrible. They have fallen to 345th in Shot Quality’s adjusted offensive rating. 314th in KenPom in offensive efficiency. I think Winthrop’s pace and athleticism has the recipe to blow this team out today.

This profile is screaming to me that Winthrop will overwhelm the Chanticleers. I am not going to overthink this one. Banking on a blowout in Rock Thrill.

Score Prediction: Winthrop 79 – Coastal Carolina 63

Colorado State +3.5 : I love the Rams in this rivalry matchup. They will get an outright road victory. Nique Clifford will be the difference. This number is available at MGM right now. I am surprised they are offering. Most of the market is at +2.5 or +3. I would recommend getting the full 3 to play this one if you can’t place at MGM.

https://twitter.com/League_Him/status/1862642700559712623

Nique is not just a future professional.. he is a future NBA player. He has the complete package and is one of the better players we have in the college game right now. He is making his long awaited return to Boulder tonight. Clifford was able to knock off the Buffaloes in Colorado Springs last year, but tonight’s game will mean a little bit more to him. He was never really trusted to provide production when he played for Colorado, so I expect him to have a big night in this arena.

The Rams faced a little bit of a skid in the early season but have seemingly corrected their issue with a win over TCU in their MTE, followed by a blowout of LMU at home. Their defense is legit. They are getting closer and closer to becoming a Top 50 SQ and KenPom unit in that regard. I think they will get enough stops to bring this one home for us.

Someone get us odds on a Nique Clifford step-back for the win.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 71 – Colorado 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

(photo: Cincinnati Enquirer)

24/25 Season Record: 75-66

12/5 Card :

• Xavier/TCU over 144.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X last night)
• Arkansas State 1H -7.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) 
• Saint Louis +9.5 (10:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X last night)

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Xavier/TCU over 144.5 : Took a breather from totals until I found one that I loved. I love this one. This is my Best Bet. I believe there is an easy path to points tonight for both teams.

Xavier is a really bad matchup for the TCU defense. Ryan Conwell and the Musketeers are shooting 38.7% from behind the arc this season. Conwell has 30 made triples in the first 8 games. Shooters for days in this roster. TCU’s Shot Quality profile is showing that Xavier could have another big night from distance. The Horned Frogs are 267th in the country in open three rate allowed. They have been fortunate to see teams miss wide open looks in that department. TCU’s opponents are only shooting 28% from three, but SQ expects that to be closer to 34%. The Horned Frogs are also 258th in Rim & 3 rate allowed. Xavier ranks 14th in Rim & 3 SQ PPP. I think Xavier has a big night on the road playing inside out with Freemantle.

TCU should also have a path to points tonight. The Horned Frogs have been pretty horrible shooting the ball to start the year, but I do believe there are capable shooters on this team. Xavier is 357th in the country in Open 3 Rate allowed. I think we see the lid come off of the bucket at home for TCU. Xavier’s stout PPP allowed numbers are propped up by a pretty easy non-con schedule thus far. Especially after what we have seen Wake become. Michigan is the only legit team the Muskies have played so far and they were very successful in an offensive game plan centered around Danny Wolf. I believe Jamie Dixon can use this blueprint with Trazarien White (time to step up and return to that UNCW form) and find some similar success.

I lean Xavier to get a big road win if you are looking for a side in this one. However, I will be only getting to the counter on the over here. It looks like we will receive some nice CLV here. Let’s snipe.

Score Prediction: Xavier 78 – TCU 74

Arkansas State 1H -7.5 : Jackson State is now on Game 9 of their 12 game road stretch to start the season. Cashing checks and catching L’s. I believe we see more of the same tonight.

This is one of the most extreme 1H angles that I have come across this season. I didn’t want to lay the big number for the full game, but I will certainly step in here on the 1H. Jackson State is currently 360th in the country by allowing 43.1 opponent 1h points per game (can you blame them). Arkansas State is 83rd in the same category. The Red Wolves also have a very capable offense that will be ready to attack Jackson State sleep walking out of the gate. Shot Quality shows this group is about to break out in a big way:

Arkansas State is coming off of a tough 1-2 trip to the Bahamas. They are better than that. I expect them to come home and put up a great 1H performance behind a sneaky good home court atmosphere at the mid-major level.

Score Prediction: 1H Arkansas State 39 – Jackson State 28

Saint Louis +9.5 : It has not been the dream start that people were hoping to see from the Billikens to begin this season. Avila being banged up to start the year was a major factor in that. I am here to tell ya … he’s back.

https://twitter.com/SaintLouisMBB/status/1861955529477685717

The pace of this game is going to play into Avila and SLU’s favor (whether they like it or not). San Francisco is 224th in the country in tempo per KenPom. They will try to make this a half court game. It would be in Saint Louis’ best interest to oblige. They are playing a little too fast for their personnel. I know Schertz likes to run, but this team is much more suited for a halfcourt attack. The Shot Quality numbers prove it! The Billikens are 4th in the country in halfcourt PPP. This allows Robbie Avila to really show his Jokic Jr. capabilities. I think he should be able to find success against the San Francisco defense. The Dons only rank 146th in the country in defending in the halfcourt. I hope Schertz identifies this and plays slower than normal tonight.

Too many points. Give ’em to us.

Score Prediction: San Francisco 77 – Saint Louis 71

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

(photo: CU Athletics)

24/25 Season Record: 67-62

12/3 Card :

• Villanova +4 (6:30pm – FS1) (Caesers)
• UNC Greensboro +2 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DK)
• Southern Illinois +4.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel)
• Providence +6 (8:30pm – FS1) (Given last night on X)
• Clemson +2.5 (9:30pm – ESPN) (Given last night on X)

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Villanova +4 : I am of the belief that the time off has served Nova well. The Wildcats were 7-3 ATS with 4+ days off a season ago. Kyle Neptune definitely has has flaws, but he is able to pull a gameplan together when he has extended time to do so.

Here are the key areas where Villanova is finding success early in this season per Shot Quality:

There are two key areas in the graphic above in which Villanova has a massive advantage in this game. Cincinnati is 352nd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage to start the year. Nova is 6th in offensive rebounding percentage and should get many 2nd chance opportunities tonight. Cincinnati is also 352nd in the country in free throw percentage at 59.8%. They have not been in a close game for this to matter, but Villanova is a team that will make you pay in a free throw battle down the stretch.

Cincinnati has had a very weak schedule to start the year. This may be the game where the finally feel the absence of Dan Skillings Jr. I like Nova to keep it close and maybe win this one outright.

Score Prediction: Cincinnati 70 – Villanova 69

UNC Greensboro +2 : I was very high on High Point coming into this season. Their offense is incredible just as I expected. However, the defense is very far off from what I thought they would be capable of being. Maybe that changes, but right now it is not good. They are 282nd in KenPom and 330th on Shot Quality in regards to defensive efficiency. Giving UNCG easy buckets is recipe for disaster.

High Point is one of the better Rim & 3 teams in the country. UNCG is built to stop that attack.

The Spartans are 29th in the country in Rim & 3 Rate allowed on defense, and 46th in regards to Shot Quality PPP defending it. As you can see in the SQ graphic above, they are forcing their opponents into very tough 2’s.

The defense of UNCG will be the difference tonight. They get an upset victory at home (not much of an upset per vegas! ha).

Score Prediction: UNCG 69 – High Point 67

Southern Illinois +4.5 : A Scott Nagy masterclass incoming. The Salukis will put a scare into Bradley tonight in a Valley opener.

Shot Quality shows that the Braves are due for some heavy regression after a hot start to the year:

SIU currently has a Top 100 defense per KenPom. I think they have what it takes to pull the Regression Monster out of hiding. I also just trust Scott Nagy in a conference opener. We saw his success time and time again in conference at Wright State and South Dakota State. I trust him to get this one home for us tonight. I am going to predict an OT win for the Salukis. Why not.

Score Prediction: SIU 76 – Bradley 75 OT

Providence +6 : The Friars had a horrible time in the Bahamas. Horrible. 0-3 including an 11 point loss as a 5.5 favorite to Davidson. They are back home in Providence tonight. That will make the difference. The Friars are an astounding 6-1 ATS as home underdogs over the last two seasons. You always need to take the points when you are getting them with the Friars in Providence. It is really that simple to me.

There are rumors that Bryce Hopkins could make his long awaited return tonight for Providence. I like the Friars at the current number without him, but you are going to see steam like no other if he is activated. Go ahead and lock it in now.

Score Prediction: BYU 72 – Providence 70

Clemson +2.5 : This is my favorite play of the night. The Best Bet. Clemson wins this one.

The Tigers are coming off of their most successful basketball season in a long, long time. There were some doubts on how this season would go after losing Hall, Girard, Godfrey, Clark, etc. Brad Brownell has silenced those doubts very quickly. The Tigers suffered an early season loss at Boise (no shame there), and have since rattled off 4 wins in a row to get to 7-1. This includes pretty dominant wins over San Francisco and Penn State on a neutral. The Chef has been cooking:

https://twitter.com/MrGebrekidan/status/1862646243110862872

The Tigers have moved all the way up to 19th in Shot Quality rating and 25th in KenPom. Their defense is an elite unit. Here are is a brief clipping of their Shot Quality profile (9th in SQ adj def):

The defensive unit is going to be the difference tonight against Kentucky. The Kentucky defensive numbers are being propped up a bit of luck. SQ shows that they should be at .99 PPP instead of .90. Clemson wins the battle of the defenses and wins outright.

Also, what a fiery home spot this is going to be. A Top 5 Kentucky team is heading to Little John in the first big home game of the season after the Elite 8 run. This is a fan base that is going to charged up for this one after a loss in football to their rivals over the weekend (LET’S GO COCKS!). We have seen Duke, UNC and other top ACC teams struggle in this arena over the years. Kentucky will find out the hard way tonight.

Score Prediction: Clemson 79 – Kentucky 72

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!