17-17 is not good. I am aware of that. The week just felt way worse than 17-17. The Xavier and Southern Cal losses are probably a major part of why this week felt so shitty. Blowout losses on Best Bets make me feel like such a moron. I know some of you only take the Best Bet, or add an additional unit, so those really hit hard when we whiff. The Creighton loss on Saturday just piled onto it. We snagged a great number overnight only to find out Kalkbrenner was ruled out minutes before tip. We still got in position to cover at the end and then Notre Dame hit a meaningless buzzer beater at the horn to hand us an L. If that shot had missed, we are 4-2 on Best Bets and 18-16 on the week. The margins are small in this business.
We are sitting at 52% for the year. Well below my average of 55% since we started the account in 2020. Time to get right. I took Sunday off for a refresher & today’s slate is bringing nothing to the table in regards to value in my opinion. Going to punt today as well.
We had some brutal late game luck this week. Losing on 4 hooks in a week’s span is not fun. Not fun at all. If you split those 4 games, then we are looking at 20-16 and decently happy with the way the week went. I am keeping that in mind.
Vanderbilt almost made up for it all by cashing our +1400 ticket in the Charleston Classic, but it was not meant to be. This Drake story is special. They are the real deal.
18-18 is well below average for us. Time to lock in and finish out Feast Week with a hot streak!
**Heaviest card of the season and FAU tip is right around the corner. These breakdowns will be brief (compared to normal) due to time**
FAU -3.5 : This team just continues to impress me. John Jakus is the real deal & FAU will be fighting for a tournament birth in my opinion. That was hard to fathom after the departure of Dusty May and the entire roster.
Baba Miller is the key in this handicap for me. Drake does not have a player that has the build to be able to compete with this athleticism. The Bulldogs are 330th in the country frequency of shots allowed attacking the rim. I think it could be a big day for Miller and Vokietaitis. This is also FAU’s 4th consecutive game in Charleston. It is becoming a new home for the Owls!
Oklahoma State +5.5 : My power ratings have this matchup around 4 on a neutral in favor of Miami. So, not a huge edge value wise on the surface. However, being in TD Arena yesterday is helping me tremendously with this handicap. I don’t see how Miami gets off of the mat with vengeance against a scrappy Oklahoma State team. The Hurricanes got punked on the glass by an undersized Drake team. Oklahoma State has the size and athleticism to punish them again if they don’t come correct. Also, the Canes gave away so many unforced turnovers. The Cowboys are 27th in the country in forcing turnovers and will be ready to pounce on this. This may be trivial and some of you may not give a shit .. but the Miami bench was completely flat yesterday. The Canes have the least support of any team at this tournament from a fan perspective and if they aren’t getting juice from their bench after good plays .. I think we see a similar performance to yesterday. Flat and uninspired. Pokes could win this outright.
Score Prediction: Miami 79 – Oklahoma State 78
Vanderbilt -4.5 : We have been in the driver’s seat of the Commodore bandwagon since the beginning of the season. This team is so legit. It has been great taking advantage of the early season market due to one of the biggest blemishes in the KenPom ratings that we have out there right now. Seton Hall is the worst team in this Charleston Classic. They made some insane shots in the 2H against VCU to complete their comeback. The Shot Quality score is more indicative of how that game went.
Mark Byington will not allow Seton Hall to muck this game up as Ryan Odom did. Vanderbilt wins this comfortably and gets our +1400 future to the championship game.
Score Prediction: Vanderbilt 69 – Seton Hall 60
Temple +5 : Florida State should not be laying 5 points to Temple on a neutral. The perimeter scoring of the Seminoles is a serious problem. FSU is shooting 26.9% from distance with only 29 makes in 5 games. Temple has 33 makes in 4 games while shooting 41.8%. This will be a huge advantage for the Owls. Florida State is also 287th in the country in free throw rate allowed so far. Jamal Mashburn Jr. has gone to the line 16 times in his last two games and should be claiming residency at the stripe tonight. Temple keeps this one close.
Score Prediction:FSU 74 – Temple 72
UVA +11.5 : This game is priced similarly to UVA’s matchup with Tennessee last night. That doesn’t make sense to me. I agreed with the number last night due to the Vols ability to clamp down on really poor offenses. I do not think that St. John’s (while really good) is at Tennessee’s level in that regard. This price should be around 8-8.5 in a neutral MTE setting. This is a market overreaction. Give me the points with the Hoos.
Score Prediction: St. John’s 69 – Virginia 61
VCU +2.5 : As you saw above from the Shot Quality report, VCU fell victim to some pretty insane difficult shot making by Seton Hall in the 2H last night. The Rams fell in OT after playing about as poorly as they can play. I think VCU bounces back in a big way tonight. The Rams have the length and physicality to cope with the strengths of Nevada in the interior. VCU comes into today’s game as the 8th rated defense per KenPom. They also have a sizable edge in the backcourt with Max Shulga. I think VCU is the better team. I have them favored in my power ratings on a neutral. This is my Best Bet.
Side Note: VCU has the largest contingent of fans in Charleston for this MTE. The Peppas band is also here and making it such a fun and intense college basketball atmosphere. This noise will swallow the miniscule contingent of Nevada supporters. This is a semi-home game for VCU tonight based off of what I saw yesterday in person.
Score Prediction: VCU 74 – Nevada 69
Elon +16 : There is not much left to be said on Elon on this website. This is our third game in a row backing the Phoenix. Let’s make it 3/3 on cashing easily! You guys know how I feel about them & how awesome I think they are compared to their market ratings. Notre Dame’s home atmosphere is a ZERO right now. We saw that last time out when we backed them. I think that the Simpkins twins will be able to at least slow Markus Burton down a bit to keep us within this number.
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 76 – Elon 64
Arizona ML : Caleb Love vs Duke. You know what side we are on.
(photo: Raleigh News Observer)
Not only did Caleb end Coach K’s career at a Tar Heel, but he donned these shoes in Cameron Indoor last season while leading Arizona to a win over Duke. He LOVES this matchup. This is the return trip of the home-and-home with Duke and the McKale Center will be rocking. The homecourt is a major factor in my handicap. We saw how Duke’s freshmen handled the neutral site game with Kentucky down the stretch. This will be way more intense. Give me Love and the veteran Wildcats.
Score Prediction: Arizona 82 – Duke 79
Wichita State -2 : The Shockers are the better team here with Robbie Avila still out for an extended period of time for SLU. The Billikens are 306th in height according to KenPom. That is with Avila factored in. Without Avila, this is one of the smallest teams in the country. The Shockers currently rank 2nd in the country in frequency attacking the rim per Shot Quality. It will be a field day in the paint for Wichita State. Also, the Shocker guards have done a decent job defending the perimeter this season by only allowing a 30% make percentage. That is the strength of SLU offensively. I think that Wichita State has the matchup edge here. I will lay the small number.
Score Prediction: Wichita State 80 – Saint louis 74
Purdue Fort Wayne +16.5 : Back again with our Mastodons! This is a good basketball team. I am excited to back them again tonight.
It was easy for us to jump on Penn State the other night against Virginia Tech. That opening line made zero sense and the Nittany Lions ran away with that one immediately. No matter what number you got, you covered with Penn State. It is going to be a long year for the Hokies. Purdue Fort Wayne presents a bigger challenge at this point in the season than Virginia Tech does. As crazy as that sounds.. it’s true. Penn State’s bludgeoning of bad opponents to start the year has gifted us a +16.5 number today. The KenPom ratings of the teams Penn State has faced outside of Virginia Tech are 312th, 326th, & 338th. This is not a fade of Penn State. It is just taking advantage of a market set by blowouts of inferior teams to PFW.
The Mastodons have climbed all of the way to 64th in the adjusted Shot Quality rating. They have done this with superb defense to compliment the offense that we are used to seeing from this group. PFW is only allowing 0.97 Shot Quality PPP while scoring 1.13. The Mastodons are also 12th in the country in FT % & 42nd in turnover rate. Love these characteristics in a dog getting this many points. This dog is gonna bark.
Score Prediction:Penn State 85 – Purdue Fort Wayne 75
Elon +1.5 : This line has flipped in the market. The Phoenix are now a 1.5 point favorite. I have them as a 3 point favorite in this game, so there is still some value left if you are just getting your wager in.
The market is not catching up to the offensive ability of this team. The Simpkins twins continue to flourish in this Billy Taylor system. The Brooklyn two-way guards bring a tenacity that you just love to have when backing a team. The pieces around them are fantastic as well. Nick Dorn is an extremely versatile 6’7 wing at the mid-major level.
Dorn is shooting 39% from distance and is exceptional at creating his own shot. I am not sure the Northern Illinois offense can do enough to win this game. Even at home. The Huskies are currently rated 305th in KenPom’s offensive adjusted efficiency. They are even worse when you take a look at Shot Quality. SQ only has them scoring 0.93 SQ PPP. The shooting percentages are bad, but the ugliest blemish on their resume is their turnover rate. They are 300th in the country with a 21.1% turnover rate. The wrong team was favored at open. Elon wins a close on on the road.
Score Prediction: Elon 73 – Northern Illinois 70
Dayton -16 : I gave this play out on Picks Central today. Thank you to Ev and the guys at Barstool for having me on. Also, thank you to anyone who is reading this blog today after listening as well. Dayton -16 is one of my favorite plays of the season. Let’s dive in.
New Mexico State is dead last in the country in forcing turnovers. Dead last. 364th. This is even with an early schedule against what should be turnover prone teams. They are also 181st in turning the ball over. Dayton doesn’t turn the ball over & is solid in forcing them. The Flyers will win this turnover battle by 10+. I am very confident in that prediction.
Also, NMSU is 328th in 3 point rate allowed. Dayton has shot 95 threes in their first 4 games. The make percentage isn’t there as of yet, but Shot Quality data shows that they should be nearly 6% better on the season with the looks they are getting. This team has gunners everywhere. Even their 7’ers have the range.
Lastly, the Aggies are 357th in the country in Shot Quality’s adjusted defensive rating. Dayton is currently 2nd in shot selection & shooting 49.3% from the field even with that 3-point percentage factored in. The Flyers will pick this team apart. Lay the big number. Dayton wins this game in the 20-25 range. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Dayton 85 – New Mexico State 62
Southern Miss +7 : The Curbelo and Alvarez backcourt for the Golden Eagles is an interesting one. There is so much offensive firepower between the two. The only problem is the turnover bug. I am *hoping* that Curbelo has potentially turned a corner in that department. He currently sports a 3.5/1 ast/to ratio. If we see that again today, Southern Miss could win this game outright. The Jackrabbits rank 346th in the country to start the year in forcing turnovers.
This is probably the worst Jackrabbit offense we have seen in quite some time in Brookings. The scoring burden has been placed on 6’11 Wazzou transfer, Oscar Cluff. He will have a size advantage in the interior in this matchup, but athletically I think that Denijay Harris and DeAantoni Gordon have a chance to slow him down. Outside of Cluff, the only other Jackrabbit in double figures for the year is freshman guard, Joe Sayler. I think that Southern Miss will have enough firepower offensively to stay in this game. Give me the points.
Score Prediction:SDSU 83 – Southern Miss 79
Arkansas Little Rock +13.5 : Mwani Wilkinson (LSU) and Johnathan Lawson (Memphis/Creighton) are thriving in their new home in Little Rock. Wilkinson & Lawson are both averaging over 15.0 ppg while shooting over 44% from distance. This dynamic duo is also bringing it on the defensive end with 3.1 combined blocks between them per game. With KK Robinson out indefinitely, these two are being relied upon heavily. It has taken a few games, but the Trojans looked great last time out against UTSA. I think that they can build off that performance and bring a little bit of a fight to Tulsa today.
Tulsa’s leaky interior defense to start the season finally came back to bite them in a triple OT loss to Missouri State last time out. The Golden Hurricanes are now 290th in the country in 2-point % defense. This is going to significantly help the Little Rock offense attack. The Trojans have been great from deep (40.3% 3PT) & adding some free bunnies from Tulsa should be able to keep them within this large number.
Tulsa gets the win here, but we likely stay under this number for the entirety of the game. Should be high scoring. Lean the over as well.
Score Prediction: Tulsa 82 – Little Rock 73
UCLA 1H -14.5 : Mick Cronin and the Bruins are crushing teams in the 1H of games at Pauley this season. Here are the results that we have seen:
UCLA 41 – Rider 23
UCLA 39 – Boston U 22
UCLA 44 – Lehigh 16
I am excited to jump in and back this angle against Idaho State tonight. This Shot Quality profile will have Kobe Johnson and the Bruins defense licking their chops:
The Bengals are also 4th in the country in frequency of post-ups. This just smells like a recipe for disaster against one of the Top 10 defenses in the country in my opinion (currently 6th in KenPom). Bruins early and often here. Let’s get to sleep before midnight.
North Alabama +29.5 (9:00pm – SEC Network) (Can get this line pretty much everywhere)
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North Alabama +29.5 : Just one play today. Plug your nose.
I have been pretty spot on with my preseason blog. It is VERY early, but everything seems to be trending just as I predicted. The one exception is Auburn. I had them outside of my preseason Top 10. That was foolish & I was wrong. They are the real deal & a lock inside of the Top 10 teams in the country. Today’s play is not a “fade” due to my preseason thoughts. This is a play in support of my thoughts of North Alabama. Just wanted to get that out of the way before breaking this one down.
The opening line was justified for this matchup. Auburn has been kicking the shit out of inferior opponents. However, the steam that the public has pushed this number to has turned this into a punch-back scenario for me. 29.5 is simply way too high. KenPom is projecting a 25 point win. That is more in my line of thinking. The North Alabama offense is better than Kent State and Vermont’s at this point in the season. You can yell at me all that you want. That is just a fact. This fact is supported by KenPom offensive efficiency ratings & Shot Quality data as well. Those teams are very likely reach a higher ceiling later than UNA, but as of November 18th – that is not the case. North Alabama is getting 7 full points more than Kent State. That doesn’t make sense to me.
This profile of North Alabama’s offense from Shot Quality (pictured above) is important to take note of. These are key areas that will keep you competitive *at times* against a team where the talent gap is a massive disadvantage. Make your threes. Don’t turn the ball over. Take advantage of the Auburn turnovers. That should be enough to keep us under 30.
Lane’s 32 points led the Lions back from a 20 point deficit last time out to force OT (we love that fight in our dog) against Samford & Bucky Ball. He has improved on his scoring totals every year & seems to be having a breakout season. Having a guard like this when you are getting close to 30 points as an underdog is a necessity. Especially with the opportunity for late buckets against the Auburn reserves. We will need a big scoring night from Jacari to get us home. Lane grew up in Alabama so I am sure this is one he has been looking forward to for quite some time.
The value in this spread has pushed into Best Bet category for me. As scary as it is with this game being played in The Jungle … this is a Best Bet.
I am happy to not be writing another sad boy paragraph to you guys like I had to do in Week 1. We were dominant outside of Saturday. Even with Saturday, we had a few hooks go the other way against us this week to keep us from a 22-13 week. It was also nice to start hitting again on the Best Bets. I know that some of you only take that play – or – add an extra unit on that play. I needed to do better on those for you guys, and we did! Let’s keep that momentum rolling into week three.
I am going to be boots on the ground at the Charleston Classic this week:
(photo: ESPN Events)
This is an excellent field & I am excited to bring y’all some fun content (& hopefully some inside scoops)! There are a few smaller & offshore markets offering futures on the winner of this MTE. I like Vanderbilt in the +800 range if this is ever offered where you wager. Nevada is coming into this tournament hot hot hot, but I love the way the Dores matchup with the Pack & I also would like them in a a semifinal vs either Seton Hall or VCU. Mark Byington (Charleston homecoming) is going to go Curt Cignetti on everyone’s ass this year! – Pour one out for all of our JMU friends.
Florida -5 (6:00pm – ACC Network) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
TCU/Michigan over 150.5 (6:00pm – FS1) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
UNCW/SC Upstate under 157 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings)
Elon +5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings)
Penn State -5.5 (7:30pm – Peacock) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Maryland -1.5 (8:00pm – FS1) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Iowa -4 (8:30pm – BTN) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
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Florida -5 : Florida’s offense is the key in this matchup today. The focus for us will be the three point line. Florida State is 300th in the country to start the year in 3PT rate allowed. They are also 343rd in the country in open three rate allowed per Shot Quality. The Gators are ready to chomp on that (yikes, I can do better than that). Florida comes into this game ranked 23rd in 3PT efficiency. Walter Clayton Jr. is going to have a field day creating for himself and his teammates in this one.
Clayton Jr., Richard and Martin have all cleared 15 three point attempts through the first three games this year. I expect them to connect on many of them tonight. The Seminoles have only made 13 threes through 3 games. Jamir Watkins is the only player on the roster scoring in double figures.
FSU will try to win games with ISO scoring from Watkins + interior domination with length. Florida will be able to compete with Florida State in the interior. The Gators come into this game ranked 16th in offensive rebounding percentage per Shot Quality. Florida will be able to flex their strength better than the Seminoles will with theirs. I feel comfortable laying this number in a rivalry road game.
Score Prediction:Florida 82 – FSU 73
TCU/Michigan over 150.5 : We are receiving some nice CLV on this number. Jamie Dixon and Dusty May are going to let these guys fly. Pace is the most important factor in this play for me. Dixon changed his entire offensive philosophy over the last few years. The Horned Frogs have finished 48th and 64th in adjusted tempo the last two seasons. This comes after Dixon coach teams finished 230th or higher for 11 out of the previous 13 seasons. Frankie Collins (revenge game) was trained to run during the last few seasons with Bobby Hurley. He is already fitting in at the point & gelling with the Dixon offense. I expect him to keep his foot on the gas in this one.
Dusty May will definitely welcome tempo & he has the firepower to do so. The Wolverines have connected on 20 threes in their first two games. Tre Donaldson is who Dusty May grabbed in the portal to be his point guard. It is early, but this appears to have been a great find. He is pushing tempo and producing at an efficient level. I like the long term offensive future of this team if they can get their backcourt reserves up to speed quickly.
Pace, points, pleasure. Give us the over.
Score Prediction: Michigan 81 – TCU 75
UNCW/SC Upstate under 157 : The PPG and PPGA averages are gaudy with these two teams. UNCW is averaging 117.5 ppg and allowing 87.5. Upstate is scoring 80.8 and allowing 86.3. Yet, we see a total under 160. It is for good reason. Another pace play here.
UNCW will control this game. There is a decisive coaching edge in favor of the Seahawks with Takayo Siddle going against a debutant D1 HC. I expect Siddle to get the Seahawks settled back into the pace that he is comfortable playing in this game. Over the last three seasons UNCW has finished 236rd, 281st, and 306th in adjusted tempo per KenPom. As you can see, the offense is moving slower & slower as the years go by under Siddle. He has a methodical approach with intricate sets that is very effective against mid-major opposition. He was able to finish 65th in KenPom’s adjusted offense even with that tempo number a season ago. UNCW doesn’t need to run to get what they want, and I expect Siddle to slow this game down to get Upstate out of rhythm. I really like this play. Give us the under.
Score Prediction: UNCW 79 – Upstate 68
Elon +5 : Guys, I think this Elon team is sneaky good. Having a 2H lead against UNC is probably the peak of their ceiling … but this team has some real pieces. The Simpkins twins are DAWGS. They play with the Brooklyn toughness that we are used to seeing from NYC guards, and they do so many little things right. Let’s take advantage of backing these guys before the rest of the world finds out. Nick Dorn is also an extremely versatile player for a program of this caliber. He is a 6’7 wing that has knocked down 7 triples through the first two games. That is not a fluke. He averaged 2 makes per game as a freshman last season while shooting 36.4%. To cap it off, the Phoenix also have a 7’4 monster. Matthew Van Komen is a big man who has spent time at both Utah and Saint Mary’s. He is back from numerous injuries and already making a massive impact defensively and on the glass.
Gardner-Webb is not good. Shot Quality gave them a predicted 6% chance to win the only game they have won this season based on the SQ Score. I think Elon wins this game outright. Will add a little sprinkle on the ML.
Score Prediction:Elon 73 – Gardner-Webb 71
Penn State -5.5 : Yanic Konan Niederhauser. It is going to be very hard, but remember the name.
This 7’er is flourishing under Mike Rhoades. I think that he is going to be a massive issue for the Hokies on the glass. Mylyjael Poteat is getting the biggest minutes boost of his carrier this year for VT, but it is not translating to any more success in the rebounding department. That is going to be a major issue for Mike Young and the Hokies this season. They are very undersized outside of Poteat and will struggle to compete on the glass against major conference opponents.
The Nittany Lions are also stroking it from distance. 32 makes in three games. Virginia Tech’s greatest strength is getting open three point looks in the Mike Young offense. If Penn State is able to match (or beat) the Hokies in that department… this one could get ugly.
This is a neutral site game in Baltimore. No edge for either fan base. I expect Penn State to handle business. Comfortable laying the points here.
Score Prediction: Penn State 80 – Virginia Tech 69
Maryland -1.5 : This is my favorite play of the night. A freshman will be the key.
Marquette is getting absolutely worn out in the post to start this season. The eye test is confirmed by Shot Quality data:
The graphic above is specifically for shots attacking the rim. Ben Gold is atrocious defensively & Derik Queen is licking his chops at this matchup. It is not often that you see personal “call outs” in the college game, but Queen did not shy away from speaking his mind on the matchup with Gold tonight. It was something along the lines of “he only wants to shoot”. Queen is not wrong. This is a very juicy matchup for Queen and Julian Reese. Marquette definitely has the backcourt edge, but Maryland has closed the gap on that a bit this year. Ja’Kobie Gillespie and Selton Miguel were big time contributors on good teams and have seamlessly transitioned into this Terrapin offense. It is also great to see Rodney Rice flourishing. He was a highly touted recruit that could never find his footing at Virginia Tech. Rice is averaging 16.7 ppg out of the gate & looks to be having a breakout season.
I believe that Maryland is a guarantee to win both the rebounding & points in the paint categories. The Terps have enough in the backcourt to take away some of the Marquette advantage there. That is enough for me to back them in this fiery home spot. College Park will be rocking. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Maryland 79 – Marquette 70
Iowa -4 : The homecoming for Brock Harding and Owen Freeman.
Iowa’s matchup tonight with Washington State is being played in Moline, IL. This is where the Hawkeyes star center and point guard grew up. Very cool situation. Obviously, these two are familiar with this arena and will feel more than at home with tons of family and friends in attendance. This was only just a tiny tiny sliver of my handicap though. The advantage for the Hawkeyes goes way beyond where the game is being played.
David Riley has instantly brought his EWU approach to Wazzou. It is going to be awesome to see what he can do with a step-up in programs. This offense is off of the charts already against mid-major competition. However, this is going to play right into the hands of Fran McCaffery. We have seen this song and dance over the years. The way to beat Iowa is to slow them down and get their shooters out of rhythm. When you run with these guys, you are more than likely going to lose. Especially when the Hawkeyes shooting is in good form. Update: it is in VERY good form. Iowa has connected on 41 (fourty one!!) threes through the first 3 games of this season. The pace of this game is going to lead to many open looks in transition. This will be a treat for all of you three point snipers out there.
The dominance of Owen Freeman cannot be understated as well. This is one of the best big men in the country. Wazzou has some length in the frontcourt, but I believe they will struggle with the versatility of Freeman. I think he nears a 20 & 10 performance in his homecoming.
The Hawkeyes simply outscore the Cougars tonight. We will lay the points!
Michigan State/Kansas under 150.5 (6:30pm – ESPN) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Purdue Fort Wayne -12.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
North Carolina Central +14.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
FAU +5.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Georgia -10 (7:00pm – ESPN+/SECN+) (DraftKings – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Kentucky +6.5 (9:00pm – ESPN) (FanDuel – Given on Twitter/X last night)
Jackson Shelstad over 10.5 points (11:00pm – BTN) (FanDuel)
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Michigan State/Kansas under 150.5 : A lot of people will base their opinion on this total from the high scoring affair between KU and UNC on Friday. I see this pace playing a lot slower than most people think. Kansas tried at times at the beginning of the North Carolina game to slow the tempo down, but Carolina wouldn’t bite. It was conducive for Kansas to keep their foot on the gas when they saw how poorly UNC was getting back in transition. It will be a different story today. Why? I think Michigan State holds the key to that answer.
Sparty comes into this matchup ranked 246th in adjusted tempo per KenPom. I expect them to play even slower as the competition ramps up. The Spartans finished the year 309th in pace a season ago & 306th the season prior. It has always been a methodical offensive approach under Izzo, but reaching the 300’s in back to back seasons is definitely something to take note of. I also just simply love their defense. KenPom has the Spartans ranked 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency and I think that is right on par where they will end up by season’s end. Michigan State has great on-ball pressure in the backcourt, and have significant length inside to protect the rim. The average height of the Spartans is 38th in the country per KenPom, and I am sure they would be even higher in the ranks if wingspans were included. The points per possession that Kansas will score tonight will dramatically drop from what they were able to get against the Tar Heels. I also think Michigan State will find it tough to score in their first ramp up in competition. Pair that with fewer possessions … and I think we are in line for an under, folks.
Score Prediction:Kansas 75 – Michigan State 70
Purdue Fort Wayne -12.5 : Our Mastodons!!! Those that were here with us last year will remember. We had a great late season run of betting Purdue Fort Wayne. The large majority of the roster is back this season. The Mastodons rank 3rd in minutes continuity from a season ago. I was tempted to pull the trigger in their last game on Friday against UCF. I am upset that I didn’t. PFW covered the spread with ease, and actually held a 64-60 lead late in that ball game.
Bethune Cookman’s defense is bad. Really bad. I expect a big night from the Mastodon offense, and that is why I think they can cover this hefty number. The Wildcats had a very nice result last time out. I could not believe the score when I was checking the box scores. Thankfully, Shot Quality provided us with the data to show that it was a lot of smoke and mirrors.
The Mastodons win this one going away.
Score Prediction: Purdue Fort Wayne 84 – Bethune Cookman 68
North Carolina Central +14.5 : This looks like the lone game of the 6 early adds that we are not going to gain CLV on. From the way this year has started in that regard … is it such a bad thing?
We bet on NCCU in their most recent outing. Gardner Webb shot over 70% for the entire game. I am not even remotely joking. Could the Eagles defense have been better? Yes. Did they receive some of the worst defensive shot luck that we will see this season? Also, yes.
1.47 PPS is not of this planet. At least we know we will not be up against that today. NCCU actually showed a ton of fight to be dealing with that. They won the offensive rebounding battle, the turnover battle (22 to 10), had more assists, equaled in free throws, etc. Only losing by 6 points while getting 1.47 PPS dropped on your head is impressive.
High Point is the real deal. They were in my preseason blog as my favorite mid-major. However, I have seen a little bit of cracks in the defensive ability to start. I am sure part of that is coming from playing with big leads against bottom 50 teams in the country, but I think that leaves NCCU with a great chance to keep this final within the number. The Eagles can score. Give us the points.
Score Prediction: High Point 85 – NCCU 75
FAU +5.5 : All of us that are in deep in the weeds of the CBB realm know exactly what type of impact that John Jakus has had on the rise of the Baylor program. The Bears would not be where they are today (with a ring) without Jakus. Scott Drew will tell you that. It is so awesome to see that he has the Owls flying out of the gate with a complete roster overhaul upon his arrival. I watched a large chunk of their game on opening night because I was interested to see how both programs would handle their star coaches and players leaving. Boy, did I find out in a hurry. FAU covered a 6.5 point spread with a 33 point ass kicking of Indiana State. Shot Quality even had it graded as an 18 point win with their data. I was very impressed. This team has a ton of cohesion and that is evident in this post-game video following that win:
I do not think I am alone on an island in thinking that FAU has the better roster and coach in this matchup. Maybe I am. If so, leave me with a six pack of Edmunds Oast & a way to stream this game and I will be just fine. Let’s grab the points here. I think there is a little too much of the opening night win over A&M baked into this line for UCF. Should be a fun and close game. FAU has a great shot to win outright IMO. Go Owls.
Score Prediction:FAU 77 – UCF 75
Georgia -10 : This was my favorite play of the day. The market agrees. This is pushing all of the way to -15.5 at some spots. We sniped this one early and it is paying off!
UNF has ran very lucky this season. You will get that from a team that shoots as many threes as they do. This was very evident in their win over Charleston Southern when we had the Bucs at +8.
The Ospreys followed that up on Sunday with another 1.28 PPP day against Georgia Tech to upset the Yellow Jackets. The regression to the mean will be coming soon. I am not buying this 3-0 start, and I was eager to get to the ticket window early to try to take advantage of that. I believe we did.
What the hell is North Florida going to do with Asa Newell?
Hyperactive college debut for Georgia's Asa Newell. The 19-year-old forward generated easy baskets and asserted a defensive presence with his terrific motor, fluidity, and length at 6-foot-10.
The Ospreys rank 294th in the country in height per KenPom. Newell has already hit the ground running in the college game and should be able to have his way offensively, defensively, and on the glass in this one. I really like the 1-2 punch of Newell and RJ Godfrey in the post long term when attacking the glass. Godfrey came over from Clemson and is instantly fitting right in averaging 8.5 rebounds per game. I am projecting many second chance opportunities for these two.
The new look Georgia backcourt is not afraid to let it fly from distance. They have 52 three point attempts through two games. Newcomer, Dakota Leffew, has already connected on 9 triples.
6'5 SG Dakota Leffew vs. Texas Southern:
• 23 PTS • 3 REB • 3 AST • 5/10 3PT
The Mount St. Mary's transfer (17.6 PPG on 36.5% 3PT last season) is a HIGH LEVEL shooter & scorer who is going to provide some real firepower for the Dawgs this season. @Kotaleffew1… pic.twitter.com/D94IlAR6Pk
If they cancel out, or outperform, North Florida from distance, then this one will be a snoozer. (in a good way!)
UNF played at Georgia Tech on Sunday, so this is an extended road trip. I expect their good fortune to run out tonight. Dawgs by close to 20. You know what, I am just going to do it. Feeling myself. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Georgia 88 – North Florida 70
Kentucky +6.5 : The Duke hype is a bit out of control at the moment. I love their pieces & their potential for long term success this season. However, I am pretty adamant in stating that Duke should not be favored to win a neutral site game over UK by close to 7 points this early in the season.
Kentucky is deep. Very deep. The Wildcats have a 10 man rotation (we will see how much that tightens up tonight) that has 7 guys averaging double figures through their first two games. The competition has been really bad, but scoring 100+ points in consecutive games to start a year is definitely something to pay attention to.
Koby Brea has been on fire for Kentucky to start the year!
His projected 3PT% is so good right now that there's a larger gap between him and the 2nd best shooter in the country than there is between 2nd and 50th at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax. pic.twitter.com/bCfdyC9mF9
There is a little bit of everything in this roster makeup. Kobe Brea is hands down the best shooter in the country. Analytics (above) and eye test will both tell you that. Lamont Butler is a seasoned point guard with national title game experience. Amari Williams is blossoming into one of the best rebounders in the country after many successful seasons at the mid-major level. Jaxson Robinson and Otega Oweah are great scorers. Andrew Carr is one of the better stretch 4’s in the country. Brandon Garrison, Butler, Oweh, etc are all excellent defenders. The list goes on and on. I am just in love with the roster makeup of veterans. That will play a major factor tonight when Duke is relying on their youth to carry the scoring burden.
This isn’t a normal sleepy neutral site game that you get earlier in the year. This is in Atlanta. A major travel spot for BBN and the Blue Devil fans. I was at the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta a season ago. I saw what BBN is made up of in that area. It will be a wild atmosphere. I will side with the veterans getting the points here. This is a true toss up for me.
Score Prediction: Duke 81 – Kentucky 80
Jackson Shelstad (Oregon) over 10.5 points : Love this spot for Jackson tonight. Shelstad cleared this number in 10 out of his last 13 games last season. We are getting a great number here due to him not reaching 10 points in each of his first two games to start the year. I expect his usage to go up tonight. He will have his way with the Pilots defense. Portland currently ranks 349th in KenPom’s defensive rating after giving up 94 points to a weakened UCSB roster. Not overthinking this one. Shelstad gets his season going in a big way tonight.
Have to be accountable and admit when you suck (unlike most of the X capping community). I sucked this week. Hand up & I’m sorry. Very tough start out of the gate. We are struggling with the Best Bet luck at the beginning of the season as we did a year ago. That is what is keeping us down. A little hiatus got us back on track last season, so I am going to take that approach again. There will not be a Best Bet every day. Maybe a couple a week until we find our footing there. I am not concerned with my handicapping for this season one bit. We have placed 25 bets and have gained CLV in 17 of them. Seventeen!!! Some games we have even seen 5 or 6 points of value on our side. We have only lost value before tip in 3 games. That is going to be successful long term. I also know that we will be successful because we do it every. single. year. This week will be a blip on the radar for our entire year. Just gotta remember that. Thank you for those sticking by me after the tough run, and here’s to going on a heater this week!
Took a breather yesterday and today. Back with cards starting tomorrow. Stay tuned tonight for some early add’s for the 11/12 slate. Will post those on Twitter/X. Let’s snipe!
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