(photo: x (@ToneLo711)

24/25 Season Record: 87-74

12/5 Card :

• Maine +5.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X)
• Dartmouth/Notre Dame 1H under 66.5 (7:00pm – ACC Extra/ESPN+) (given on X)
• Reyne Smith over 12.5 points (7:00pm – ACC Extra/ESPN+) (give on X)

————————————

Maine +5.5 : Let’s get another Best Bet dawgggg to win outright. I think the Black Bears have a great chance to do so tonight.

I am very impressed with the Maine backcourt. It is not often that you see two guards on the same roster that have the assist/turnover ratios of Kellen Tynes and Jaden Clayton. AJ Lopez has also taken a monster step in the scoring department. He scored 24 points last time out and has insane shooting percentage splits this year (44.3/43.2/94.1). Lopez and the Black Bears have soared all the way to 3rd in the country in free throw percentage. Duquesne is 346th. Quite the disparity. Lopez, Burns and Tynes are all shooting over 85% with at least 27 attempts. That is going to be a huge matchup edge for our underdog tonight. Duquesne ranks 301st in the country in opponent free throw rate per KenPom. Maine is going to get a ton of freebies in this one & Duquesne is likely to miss a lot of theirs.

We got up close and personal with this Duquesne squad on Friday night. They covered our Best Bet with a dominant 2H performance to blow past Delaware. I was pleased to win the bet, but I came away pretty unimpressed with the roster/coaching of this Dukes team. The defense is pretty horrible. A down Delaware team had 22 points before you could blink an eye. They scored 1.22 SQ PPP in that half. Dru Joyce seemed lost at times. I am not so sure he is the right man for the job. Time will tell.

This Maine team is disciplined with taking care of the ball, creating for teammates, and making their free throws. I like that steady hand against a sporadic Duquesne squad. The Black Bears can win this outright. Give us the points.

Score Prediction: Duquesne 67 – Maine 66

Dartmouth/Notre Dame 1H under 66.5 : The Irish will have a stranglehold on the Dartmouth offense to start this one. The Big Green have fallen all of the way to 345th in the KenPom offensive efficiency rating. They also rank 339th in the SQ adjusted offensive rating. Dartmouth is not going to find many easy baskets at the rim tonight. They rank 303rd in efficiency attacking the rim per Shot Quality. Notre Dame ranks 17th in amount of shots around the rim allowed. This is probably going to entice Dartmouth to take even more 3’s than they normally do (which is a lot). Notre Dame is one of the better teams in the country at contesting three pointers. Shot Quality has them at 26th in the country in Open 3PT Rate allowed. Notre Dame has held Houston, Georgia and Syracuse to under 70 points in 3 out of their last 4 games. This unit is gelling well and I want to back them in this spot.

The offense is not humming as well as the defense at the moment for the Irish. The loss of Markus Burton is weighing on that unit heavily. I think Dartmouth could be a team that allows ND to finally get it going in that department, but I am banking on another slow start out of the gate. The edge here is in the 1H instead of the full game in my opinion. Let’s get a slow start.

Score Prediction: 1H Notre Dame 35 – Dartmouth 28

Reyne Smith over 12.5 points : Sniper SZN.

8-0 RUN FOR THE CARDSSSSS

featuring @UofLVillens at the end 🥳

💻 https://t.co/zfeniQVkRG#GoCards pic.twitter.com/gVuyphJdWu

— Louisville Men's Basketball (@LouisvilleMBB) December 8, 2024

Reyne Smith is one of the biggest volume three point shooters that we have in America. He is averaging NINE three point attempts per game. This volume has even gone up a tick over the last two games following Louisville’s injury problems (10.5 attempts per). These injuries also have Reyne playing the most amount of minutes in his career. UTEP is 349th in the country in 3PT % allowed to start the season. I think a big night awaits for our Australian sharpshooter. Bombs away.

Score Prediction: Reyne Smith 15 points

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

(photo: B1G Network)

Week 5 Record: 17-12 (6-1 Best Bets)

Bell answered.

A nice bounce back week! Very proud of the 17-12 week after how Saturday night finished. More importantly …. we went 6-1 on Best Bets!! I have heard from a lot of you that you had a big week tailing & I love to hear it. That’s what it’s all about. Winning together!

It is a very light week for college basketball action until we reach Saturday. The volume will decrease significantly from what we’ve been used to at the beginning of this season. Let’s pick our spots and win big.

I can’t get there on the handful of games today. No need to force. There are several that I am eyeing on Tuesday’s slate. Will spend my time there and provide some early adds tonight.

We ride again.

(photo: Brice Tucker, Deseret News)

24/25 Season Record: 78-69

12/7 Card :

• Virginia/SMU over 135 (2:15pm – CW Network) (Bally)
• UNLV +11.5 (4:00pm – FS1) (given on X last night)
• NC State -3 (4:00pm – ESPNU) (given on X last night)
• Houston TT over 75.5 (5:30pm – ESPN2) (FD)
• Utah -2.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X last night)
• Winthrop -11 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (Bally)
• Colorado State +3.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (MGM)

————————————

UVA/SMU over 135 : A Virginia over. I promise I am not a masochist.

The UVA staff is trying to deploy the same offensive principles that we saw under Tony Bennett. They are failing to do so. This team cannot take care of the basketball. The Cavs rank 292nd in the country in turnover percentage. SMU is 35th in tempo per KenPom, and they are also 2nd in transition frequency per Shot Quality. The Mustangs will feast in transition and should easily get to double digits on points off of turnovers.

I have been hard on Virginia this year, but one thing they can do is shoot the basketball. Virginia ranks 29th in the country in 3point percentage. SMU is 356th in the country in open 3 rate allowed on defense per Shot Quality. I like the matchup edges in this game to get us over this total.

Score Prediction: SMU 74 – Virginia 65

UNLV +11.5 : I had a little birdie share some whispers about the Pop Isaacs news that dropped this morning. We were able to get a great line last night.

This is a severe gut punch to the Jays coming off of their midweek win over #1 Kansas. Creighton just does not have the guard depth to sustain this. UNLV is 34th in the country in free throw rate per Shot Quality. DJ Thomas is great at creating contact. UNLV might have a chance at an upset if they get Ashworth in to foul trouble. Regardless, I think they keep this one close. Some nice CLV here. Bring it home UNLV.

Score Prediction: Creighton 77 – UNLV 70

NC State -3 : It looks like we will receive some nice CLV here as well. -5 and -5.5 at some places. Florida State is not a 7-2 ballclub. They have picked on inferior opponents and lost pretty convincingly against their only power conference opposition. I am not a Seminole believer this season.

FSU has taken advantage of the turnover margin in their wins this season. They are 6th nationally in forcing turnovers. This Wolfpack team is equipped to limit that damage. Michael O’Connell is an incredible floor general. He has a 4.6/1 assist-to-turnover ratio this season. His presence in the NC State backcourt has the Wolfpack 53rd in the country in turnover rate. Florida State will struggle to find points running their “sets” without these turnovers. This team is 218th in Rim & 3 rate even with their gaudy forced turnover percentage.

NC State wins this one at home. Happy to lay the small number we did last night.

Score Prediction: NC State 77 – FSU 69

Houston over 75.5 points : This is going to be a longggggg day for Butler. I was tempted to lay the points here as well, but I see a major edge in the team total. Houston clears 80 today.

The Bulldogs come into this game 328th in the country in turnover rate on offense.

Houston is 24th in forcing turnovers even with the gauntlet they have faced to start the season. It is going to be a layup line at the Fertitta Center. I also think Houston is able to out tough Butler in the post and get plenty of buckets around the rim. LJ Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp will take care of the rest from distance.

I feel confident backing a pissed of Kelvin Sampson team. Let’s get some mud in our blood.

Score Prediction: Houston 81 – Butler 59

Utah -2.5 : Folks, this is one of my favorite bets of the season. The Best Bet on this beautiful Saturday. We got a good number here as well. I see this at 3.5 at most places. Let’s get into why I love this play so much.

The Utes are an analytical darling as you can see from the Shot Quality profile above. Their only loss of the season came at the hands of Mississippi State in Southaven, MS. We all saw what the Bulldogs are capable off this midweek with our Best Bet hit over Pitt. This loss also came without Lawson Lovering in the fold. The 7’1 big made his season debut in late November and had a 16 pt / 8 reb / 3 blk performance last time out. Having Lovering tonight is crucial to compete on the glass with Saxen. Speaking of the glass, the Utes (15th in height per KenPom) are Top 50 in offensive AND defensive rebounding percentage. Saint Mary’s gets a lot of their offense from the offensive glass. I think that is erased tonight.

Utah is also equipped to handle the slow down approach from Saint Mary’s. Look at these halfcourt numbers from Shot Quality!

This is Saint Mary’s first road game of the season. The Gaels didn’t even have to leave California for their MTE. They struggled mightily in these spots last season. A lot of the same crew is back. Utah took them to the cleaners in Moraga last season, and I expect them to do it again tonight.

Score Prediction: Utah 76 – Saint Mary’s 66

Winthrop -11 : KenPom only has this graded as an 8 point win for the Eagles, but I think Vegas is onto something with where they have priced this matchup.

Coastal Carolina should not be winning basketball games. This team is horrible. They have fallen to 345th in Shot Quality’s adjusted offensive rating. 314th in KenPom in offensive efficiency. I think Winthrop’s pace and athleticism has the recipe to blow this team out today.

This profile is screaming to me that Winthrop will overwhelm the Chanticleers. I am not going to overthink this one. Banking on a blowout in Rock Thrill.

Score Prediction: Winthrop 79 – Coastal Carolina 63

Colorado State +3.5 : I love the Rams in this rivalry matchup. They will get an outright road victory. Nique Clifford will be the difference. This number is available at MGM right now. I am surprised they are offering. Most of the market is at +2.5 or +3. I would recommend getting the full 3 to play this one if you can’t place at MGM.

https://twitter.com/League_Him/status/1862642700559712623

Nique is not just a future professional.. he is a future NBA player. He has the complete package and is one of the better players we have in the college game right now. He is making his long awaited return to Boulder tonight. Clifford was able to knock off the Buffaloes in Colorado Springs last year, but tonight’s game will mean a little bit more to him. He was never really trusted to provide production when he played for Colorado, so I expect him to have a big night in this arena.

The Rams faced a little bit of a skid in the early season but have seemingly corrected their issue with a win over TCU in their MTE, followed by a blowout of LMU at home. Their defense is legit. They are getting closer and closer to becoming a Top 50 SQ and KenPom unit in that regard. I think they will get enough stops to bring this one home for us.

Someone get us odds on a Nique Clifford step-back for the win.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 71 – Colorado 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

(photo: Cincinnati Enquirer)

24/25 Season Record: 75-66

12/5 Card :

• Xavier/TCU over 144.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X last night)
• Arkansas State 1H -7.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) 
• Saint Louis +9.5 (10:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X last night)

————————————

Xavier/TCU over 144.5 : Took a breather from totals until I found one that I loved. I love this one. This is my Best Bet. I believe there is an easy path to points tonight for both teams.

Xavier is a really bad matchup for the TCU defense. Ryan Conwell and the Musketeers are shooting 38.7% from behind the arc this season. Conwell has 30 made triples in the first 8 games. Shooters for days in this roster. TCU’s Shot Quality profile is showing that Xavier could have another big night from distance. The Horned Frogs are 267th in the country in open three rate allowed. They have been fortunate to see teams miss wide open looks in that department. TCU’s opponents are only shooting 28% from three, but SQ expects that to be closer to 34%. The Horned Frogs are also 258th in Rim & 3 rate allowed. Xavier ranks 14th in Rim & 3 SQ PPP. I think Xavier has a big night on the road playing inside out with Freemantle.

TCU should also have a path to points tonight. The Horned Frogs have been pretty horrible shooting the ball to start the year, but I do believe there are capable shooters on this team. Xavier is 357th in the country in Open 3 Rate allowed. I think we see the lid come off of the bucket at home for TCU. Xavier’s stout PPP allowed numbers are propped up by a pretty easy non-con schedule thus far. Especially after what we have seen Wake become. Michigan is the only legit team the Muskies have played so far and they were very successful in an offensive game plan centered around Danny Wolf. I believe Jamie Dixon can use this blueprint with Trazarien White (time to step up and return to that UNCW form) and find some similar success.

I lean Xavier to get a big road win if you are looking for a side in this one. However, I will be only getting to the counter on the over here. It looks like we will receive some nice CLV here. Let’s snipe.

Score Prediction: Xavier 78 – TCU 74

Arkansas State 1H -7.5 : Jackson State is now on Game 9 of their 12 game road stretch to start the season. Cashing checks and catching L’s. I believe we see more of the same tonight.

This is one of the most extreme 1H angles that I have come across this season. I didn’t want to lay the big number for the full game, but I will certainly step in here on the 1H. Jackson State is currently 360th in the country by allowing 43.1 opponent 1h points per game (can you blame them). Arkansas State is 83rd in the same category. The Red Wolves also have a very capable offense that will be ready to attack Jackson State sleep walking out of the gate. Shot Quality shows this group is about to break out in a big way:

Arkansas State is coming off of a tough 1-2 trip to the Bahamas. They are better than that. I expect them to come home and put up a great 1H performance behind a sneaky good home court atmosphere at the mid-major level.

Score Prediction: 1H Arkansas State 39 – Jackson State 28

Saint Louis +9.5 : It has not been the dream start that people were hoping to see from the Billikens to begin this season. Avila being banged up to start the year was a major factor in that. I am here to tell ya … he’s back.

https://twitter.com/SaintLouisMBB/status/1861955529477685717

The pace of this game is going to play into Avila and SLU’s favor (whether they like it or not). San Francisco is 224th in the country in tempo per KenPom. They will try to make this a half court game. It would be in Saint Louis’ best interest to oblige. They are playing a little too fast for their personnel. I know Schertz likes to run, but this team is much more suited for a halfcourt attack. The Shot Quality numbers prove it! The Billikens are 4th in the country in halfcourt PPP. This allows Robbie Avila to really show his Jokic Jr. capabilities. I think he should be able to find success against the San Francisco defense. The Dons only rank 146th in the country in defending in the halfcourt. I hope Schertz identifies this and plays slower than normal tonight.

Too many points. Give ’em to us.

Score Prediction: San Francisco 77 – Saint Louis 71

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

(photo: CU Athletics)

24/25 Season Record: 67-62

12/3 Card :

• Villanova +4 (6:30pm – FS1) (Caesers)
• UNC Greensboro +2 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (DK)
• Southern Illinois +4.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel)
• Providence +6 (8:30pm – FS1) (Given last night on X)
• Clemson +2.5 (9:30pm – ESPN) (Given last night on X)

————————————

Villanova +4 : I am of the belief that the time off has served Nova well. The Wildcats were 7-3 ATS with 4+ days off a season ago. Kyle Neptune definitely has has flaws, but he is able to pull a gameplan together when he has extended time to do so.

Here are the key areas where Villanova is finding success early in this season per Shot Quality:

There are two key areas in the graphic above in which Villanova has a massive advantage in this game. Cincinnati is 352nd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage to start the year. Nova is 6th in offensive rebounding percentage and should get many 2nd chance opportunities tonight. Cincinnati is also 352nd in the country in free throw percentage at 59.8%. They have not been in a close game for this to matter, but Villanova is a team that will make you pay in a free throw battle down the stretch.

Cincinnati has had a very weak schedule to start the year. This may be the game where the finally feel the absence of Dan Skillings Jr. I like Nova to keep it close and maybe win this one outright.

Score Prediction: Cincinnati 70 – Villanova 69

UNC Greensboro +2 : I was very high on High Point coming into this season. Their offense is incredible just as I expected. However, the defense is very far off from what I thought they would be capable of being. Maybe that changes, but right now it is not good. They are 282nd in KenPom and 330th on Shot Quality in regards to defensive efficiency. Giving UNCG easy buckets is recipe for disaster.

High Point is one of the better Rim & 3 teams in the country. UNCG is built to stop that attack.

The Spartans are 29th in the country in Rim & 3 Rate allowed on defense, and 46th in regards to Shot Quality PPP defending it. As you can see in the SQ graphic above, they are forcing their opponents into very tough 2’s.

The defense of UNCG will be the difference tonight. They get an upset victory at home (not much of an upset per vegas! ha).

Score Prediction: UNCG 69 – High Point 67

Southern Illinois +4.5 : A Scott Nagy masterclass incoming. The Salukis will put a scare into Bradley tonight in a Valley opener.

Shot Quality shows that the Braves are due for some heavy regression after a hot start to the year:

SIU currently has a Top 100 defense per KenPom. I think they have what it takes to pull the Regression Monster out of hiding. I also just trust Scott Nagy in a conference opener. We saw his success time and time again in conference at Wright State and South Dakota State. I trust him to get this one home for us tonight. I am going to predict an OT win for the Salukis. Why not.

Score Prediction: SIU 76 – Bradley 75 OT

Providence +6 : The Friars had a horrible time in the Bahamas. Horrible. 0-3 including an 11 point loss as a 5.5 favorite to Davidson. They are back home in Providence tonight. That will make the difference. The Friars are an astounding 6-1 ATS as home underdogs over the last two seasons. You always need to take the points when you are getting them with the Friars in Providence. It is really that simple to me.

There are rumors that Bryce Hopkins could make his long awaited return tonight for Providence. I like the Friars at the current number without him, but you are going to see steam like no other if he is activated. Go ahead and lock it in now.

Score Prediction: BYU 72 – Providence 70

Clemson +2.5 : This is my favorite play of the night. The Best Bet. Clemson wins this one.

The Tigers are coming off of their most successful basketball season in a long, long time. There were some doubts on how this season would go after losing Hall, Girard, Godfrey, Clark, etc. Brad Brownell has silenced those doubts very quickly. The Tigers suffered an early season loss at Boise (no shame there), and have since rattled off 4 wins in a row to get to 7-1. This includes pretty dominant wins over San Francisco and Penn State on a neutral. The Chef has been cooking:

https://twitter.com/MrGebrekidan/status/1862646243110862872

The Tigers have moved all the way up to 19th in Shot Quality rating and 25th in KenPom. Their defense is an elite unit. Here are is a brief clipping of their Shot Quality profile (9th in SQ adj def):

The defensive unit is going to be the difference tonight against Kentucky. The Kentucky defensive numbers are being propped up a bit of luck. SQ shows that they should be at .99 PPP instead of .90. Clemson wins the battle of the defenses and wins outright.

Also, what a fiery home spot this is going to be. A Top 5 Kentucky team is heading to Little John in the first big home game of the season after the Elite 8 run. This is a fan base that is going to charged up for this one after a loss in football to their rivals over the weekend (LET’S GO COCKS!). We have seen Duke, UNC and other top ACC teams struggle in this arena over the years. Kentucky will find out the hard way tonight.

Score Prediction: Clemson 79 – Kentucky 72

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

(photo: Jay Calderon/The Desert Sun)

Week 4 Record: 17-17

Thumbs down. Can’t blame the hooks this week.

17-17 is not good. I am aware of that. The week just felt way worse than 17-17. The Xavier and Southern Cal losses are probably a major part of why this week felt so shitty. Blowout losses on Best Bets make me feel like such a moron. I know some of you only take the Best Bet, or add an additional unit, so those really hit hard when we whiff. The Creighton loss on Saturday just piled onto it. We snagged a great number overnight only to find out Kalkbrenner was ruled out minutes before tip. We still got in position to cover at the end and then Notre Dame hit a meaningless buzzer beater at the horn to hand us an L. If that shot had missed, we are 4-2 on Best Bets and 18-16 on the week. The margins are small in this business.

We are sitting at 52% for the year. Well below my average of 55% since we started the account in 2020. Time to get right. I took Sunday off for a refresher & today’s slate is bringing nothing to the table in regards to value in my opinion. Going to punt today as well.

Tuesday will be a big day. We ride again.

(photo: Grand Canyon University Athletics)

24/25 Season Record: 53-47

11/26 Card :

• UConn -15 (3:30pm – ESPN2) (DK)
• Penn State +1 (4:00pm – CBSSN) (DK)
• Oregon +3.5 (4:30pm – TNT) (FD)
• Michigan State ML -115 (6:00pm – ESPN) (DK)
• Grand Canyon ML -115 (7:00pm – TruTV) (DK) *Best Bet*
• Houston -3.5 (8:00pm – TBS) (MGM)
• Kansas +3.5 (9:00pm – ESPN) (DK)
• Rutgers -1 (10:30pm – TBS) (Bally)
• Washington State -14 (Midnight – TruTV) (ESPNBet)

No write-up today. The Lopes are the Best Bet. Let’s FEAST!

(photo: Drake University Athletics)

Week 3 Record: 18-18

Death by hook.

We had some brutal late game luck this week. Losing on 4 hooks in a week’s span is not fun. Not fun at all. If you split those 4 games, then we are looking at 20-16 and decently happy with the way the week went. I am keeping that in mind.

Vanderbilt almost made up for it all by cashing our +1400 ticket in the Charleston Classic, but it was not meant to be. This Drake story is special. They are the real deal.

18-18 is well below average for us. Time to lock in and finish out Feast Week with a hot streak!

(photo: VCU Athletics)

24/25 Season Record: 41-35

11/22 Card (all given on Twitter/X) :

• FAU -3.5 (11:30am – ESPN2)
• Oklahoma State +5.5 (2:00pm – ESPNU) 
• Vanderbilt -4.5 (5:00pm – ESPN2)
• Temple +5 (5:00pm – ESPN+) 
• UVA +11.5 (7:00pm – CBSSN)
• VCU +2.5 (7:30pm – ESPN+)
• Elon +16 (7:30pm – ESPN+/ACC Extra)
• Arizona ML -115 (10:30pm – ESPN2)
• Wichita State -2 (10:30pm – Peacock)

————————————

**Heaviest card of the season and FAU tip is right around the corner. These breakdowns will be brief (compared to normal) due to time**

FAU -3.5 : This team just continues to impress me. John Jakus is the real deal & FAU will be fighting for a tournament birth in my opinion. That was hard to fathom after the departure of Dusty May and the entire roster.

Baba Miller is the key in this handicap for me. Drake does not have a player that has the build to be able to compete with this athleticism. The Bulldogs are 330th in the country frequency of shots allowed attacking the rim. I think it could be a big day for Miller and Vokietaitis. This is also FAU’s 4th consecutive game in Charleston. It is becoming a new home for the Owls!

https://twitter.com/FAU_Owls_Nest/status/1857576131131515094

Score Prediction: FAU 77 – Drake 71

Oklahoma State +5.5 : My power ratings have this matchup around 4 on a neutral in favor of Miami. So, not a huge edge value wise on the surface. However, being in TD Arena yesterday is helping me tremendously with this handicap. I don’t see how Miami gets off of the mat with vengeance against a scrappy Oklahoma State team. The Hurricanes got punked on the glass by an undersized Drake team. Oklahoma State has the size and athleticism to punish them again if they don’t come correct. Also, the Canes gave away so many unforced turnovers. The Cowboys are 27th in the country in forcing turnovers and will be ready to pounce on this. This may be trivial and some of you may not give a shit .. but the Miami bench was completely flat yesterday. The Canes have the least support of any team at this tournament from a fan perspective and if they aren’t getting juice from their bench after good plays .. I think we see a similar performance to yesterday. Flat and uninspired. Pokes could win this outright.

Score Prediction: Miami 79 – Oklahoma State 78

Vanderbilt -4.5 : We have been in the driver’s seat of the Commodore bandwagon since the beginning of the season. This team is so legit. It has been great taking advantage of the early season market due to one of the biggest blemishes in the KenPom ratings that we have out there right now. Seton Hall is the worst team in this Charleston Classic. They made some insane shots in the 2H against VCU to complete their comeback. The Shot Quality score is more indicative of how that game went.

Mark Byington will not allow Seton Hall to muck this game up as Ryan Odom did. Vanderbilt wins this comfortably and gets our +1400 future to the championship game.

Score Prediction: Vanderbilt 69 – Seton Hall 60

Temple +5 : Florida State should not be laying 5 points to Temple on a neutral. The perimeter scoring of the Seminoles is a serious problem. FSU is shooting 26.9% from distance with only 29 makes in 5 games. Temple has 33 makes in 4 games while shooting 41.8%. This will be a huge advantage for the Owls. Florida State is also 287th in the country in free throw rate allowed so far. Jamal Mashburn Jr. has gone to the line 16 times in his last two games and should be claiming residency at the stripe tonight. Temple keeps this one close.

Score Prediction: FSU 74 – Temple 72

UVA +11.5 : This game is priced similarly to UVA’s matchup with Tennessee last night. That doesn’t make sense to me. I agreed with the number last night due to the Vols ability to clamp down on really poor offenses. I do not think that St. John’s (while really good) is at Tennessee’s level in that regard. This price should be around 8-8.5 in a neutral MTE setting. This is a market overreaction. Give me the points with the Hoos.

Score Prediction: St. John’s 69 – Virginia 61

VCU +2.5 : As you saw above from the Shot Quality report, VCU fell victim to some pretty insane difficult shot making by Seton Hall in the 2H last night. The Rams fell in OT after playing about as poorly as they can play. I think VCU bounces back in a big way tonight. The Rams have the length and physicality to cope with the strengths of Nevada in the interior. VCU comes into today’s game as the 8th rated defense per KenPom. They also have a sizable edge in the backcourt with Max Shulga. I think VCU is the better team. I have them favored in my power ratings on a neutral. This is my Best Bet.

Side Note: VCU has the largest contingent of fans in Charleston for this MTE. The Peppas band is also here and making it such a fun and intense college basketball atmosphere. This noise will swallow the miniscule contingent of Nevada supporters. This is a semi-home game for VCU tonight based off of what I saw yesterday in person.

Score Prediction: VCU 74 – Nevada 69

Elon +16 : There is not much left to be said on Elon on this website. This is our third game in a row backing the Phoenix. Let’s make it 3/3 on cashing easily! You guys know how I feel about them & how awesome I think they are compared to their market ratings. Notre Dame’s home atmosphere is a ZERO right now. We saw that last time out when we backed them. I think that the Simpkins twins will be able to at least slow Markus Burton down a bit to keep us within this number.

Score Prediction: Notre Dame 76 – Elon 64

Arizona ML : Caleb Love vs Duke. You know what side we are on.

(photo: Raleigh News Observer)

Not only did Caleb end Coach K’s career at a Tar Heel, but he donned these shoes in Cameron Indoor last season while leading Arizona to a win over Duke. He LOVES this matchup. This is the return trip of the home-and-home with Duke and the McKale Center will be rocking. The homecourt is a major factor in my handicap. We saw how Duke’s freshmen handled the neutral site game with Kentucky down the stretch. This will be way more intense. Give me Love and the veteran Wildcats.

Score Prediction: Arizona 82 – Duke 79

Wichita State -2 : The Shockers are the better team here with Robbie Avila still out for an extended period of time for SLU. The Billikens are 306th in height according to KenPom. That is with Avila factored in. Without Avila, this is one of the smallest teams in the country. The Shockers currently rank 2nd in the country in frequency attacking the rim per Shot Quality. It will be a field day in the paint for Wichita State. Also, the Shocker guards have done a decent job defending the perimeter this season by only allowing a 30% make percentage. That is the strength of SLU offensively. I think that Wichita State has the matchup edge here. I will lay the small number.

Score Prediction: Wichita State 80 – Saint louis 74

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

(photo: University of Dayton Athletics)

24/25 Season Record: 34-31

11/20 Card (all given on Twitter/X) :

• Purdue Fort Wayne +16.5 

• Elon +1.5 

• Dayton -16

• Southern Miss +7 

• Little Rock +13.5

• UCLA 1H -14.5

————————————

Purdue Fort Wayne +16.5 : Back again with our Mastodons! This is a good basketball team. I am excited to back them again tonight.

It was easy for us to jump on Penn State the other night against Virginia Tech. That opening line made zero sense and the Nittany Lions ran away with that one immediately. No matter what number you got, you covered with Penn State. It is going to be a long year for the Hokies. Purdue Fort Wayne presents a bigger challenge at this point in the season than Virginia Tech does. As crazy as that sounds.. it’s true. Penn State’s bludgeoning of bad opponents to start the year has gifted us a +16.5 number today. The KenPom ratings of the teams Penn State has faced outside of Virginia Tech are 312th, 326th, & 338th. This is not a fade of Penn State. It is just taking advantage of a market set by blowouts of inferior teams to PFW.

The Mastodons have climbed all of the way to 64th in the adjusted Shot Quality rating. They have done this with superb defense to compliment the offense that we are used to seeing from this group. PFW is only allowing 0.97 Shot Quality PPP while scoring 1.13. The Mastodons are also 12th in the country in FT % & 42nd in turnover rate. Love these characteristics in a dog getting this many points. This dog is gonna bark.

Score Prediction: Penn State 85 – Purdue Fort Wayne 75

Elon +1.5 : This line has flipped in the market. The Phoenix are now a 1.5 point favorite. I have them as a 3 point favorite in this game, so there is still some value left if you are just getting your wager in.

The market is not catching up to the offensive ability of this team. The Simpkins twins continue to flourish in this Billy Taylor system. The Brooklyn two-way guards bring a tenacity that you just love to have when backing a team. The pieces around them are fantastic as well. Nick Dorn is an extremely versatile 6’7 wing at the mid-major level.

https://twitter.com/HOODH3RO/status/1853644611702452723

Dorn is shooting 39% from distance and is exceptional at creating his own shot. I am not sure the Northern Illinois offense can do enough to win this game. Even at home. The Huskies are currently rated 305th in KenPom’s offensive adjusted efficiency. They are even worse when you take a look at Shot Quality. SQ only has them scoring 0.93 SQ PPP. The shooting percentages are bad, but the ugliest blemish on their resume is their turnover rate. They are 300th in the country with a 21.1% turnover rate. The wrong team was favored at open. Elon wins a close on on the road.

Score Prediction: Elon 73 – Northern Illinois 70

Dayton -16 : I gave this play out on Picks Central today. Thank you to Ev and the guys at Barstool for having me on. Also, thank you to anyone who is reading this blog today after listening as well. Dayton -16 is one of my favorite plays of the season. Let’s dive in.

New Mexico State is dead last in the country in forcing turnovers. Dead last. 364th. This is even with an early schedule against what should be turnover prone teams. They are also 181st in turning the ball over. Dayton doesn’t turn the ball over & is solid in forcing them. The Flyers will win this turnover battle by 10+. I am very confident in that prediction.

Also, NMSU is 328th in 3 point rate allowed. Dayton has shot 95 threes in their first 4 games. The make percentage isn’t there as of yet, but Shot Quality data shows that they should be nearly 6% better on the season with the looks they are getting. This team has gunners everywhere. Even their 7’ers have the range.

https://twitter.com/DavidPJablonski/status/1857939483754151936

Lastly, the Aggies are 357th in the country in Shot Quality’s adjusted defensive rating. Dayton is currently 2nd in shot selection & shooting 49.3% from the field even with that 3-point percentage factored in. The Flyers will pick this team apart. Lay the big number. Dayton wins this game in the 20-25 range. Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Dayton 85 – New Mexico State 62

Southern Miss +7 : The Curbelo and Alvarez backcourt for the Golden Eagles is an interesting one. There is so much offensive firepower between the two. The only problem is the turnover bug. I am *hoping* that Curbelo has potentially turned a corner in that department. He currently sports a 3.5/1 ast/to ratio. If we see that again today, Southern Miss could win this game outright. The Jackrabbits rank 346th in the country to start the year in forcing turnovers.

This is probably the worst Jackrabbit offense we have seen in quite some time in Brookings. The scoring burden has been placed on 6’11 Wazzou transfer, Oscar Cluff. He will have a size advantage in the interior in this matchup, but athletically I think that Denijay Harris and DeAantoni Gordon have a chance to slow him down. Outside of Cluff, the only other Jackrabbit in double figures for the year is freshman guard, Joe Sayler. I think that Southern Miss will have enough firepower offensively to stay in this game. Give me the points.

Score Prediction: SDSU 83 – Southern Miss 79

Arkansas Little Rock +13.5 : Mwani Wilkinson (LSU) and Johnathan Lawson (Memphis/Creighton) are thriving in their new home in Little Rock. Wilkinson & Lawson are both averaging over 15.0 ppg while shooting over 44% from distance. This dynamic duo is also bringing it on the defensive end with 3.1 combined blocks between them per game. With KK Robinson out indefinitely, these two are being relied upon heavily. It has taken a few games, but the Trojans looked great last time out against UTSA. I think that they can build off that performance and bring a little bit of a fight to Tulsa today.

Tulsa’s leaky interior defense to start the season finally came back to bite them in a triple OT loss to Missouri State last time out. The Golden Hurricanes are now 290th in the country in 2-point % defense. This is going to significantly help the Little Rock offense attack. The Trojans have been great from deep (40.3% 3PT) & adding some free bunnies from Tulsa should be able to keep them within this large number.

Tulsa gets the win here, but we likely stay under this number for the entirety of the game. Should be high scoring. Lean the over as well.

Score Prediction: Tulsa 82 – Little Rock 73

UCLA 1H -14.5 : Mick Cronin and the Bruins are crushing teams in the 1H of games at Pauley this season. Here are the results that we have seen:

UCLA 41 – Rider 23

UCLA 39 – Boston U 22

UCLA 44 – Lehigh 16

I am excited to jump in and back this angle against Idaho State tonight. This Shot Quality profile will have Kobe Johnson and the Bruins defense licking their chops:

The Bengals are also 4th in the country in frequency of post-ups. This just smells like a recipe for disaster against one of the Top 10 defenses in the country in my opinion (currently 6th in KenPom). Bruins early and often here. Let’s get to sleep before midnight.

Score Prediction: 1H UCLA 40 – Idaho State 22

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!