(photo: Houston Chronicle)
24/25 Season Record: 305-245
2025 NCAA Tournament: 27-23 (10-4 Best Bet)
We have finally made it to San Antonio, gents! What a year it has been. We have eclipsed the 55% mark for the season once again. Hard work pays off. This great season is also culminating with two of our four preseason futures making it to the Final Four! We have advanced our preseason 60-1 Florida and 15-1 Houston tickets to this point. A lot of you are asking if I am planning on hedging entering this round. I am not. Auburn and Duke are worthy and formidable opponents, but I feel confident that we will see a minimum of one of our teams in the title game on Monday night. If I am wrong, I can live with it. The dream scenario of having both tickets in the championship game is still on the table. I am not passing that up. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s get into Saturday’s card (some additional pizza)!
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4/5 Card :
Florida/Auburn 1H under 76 -115 (Caesars) (6:09pm – CBS)
I think that we a see a surprisingly sleepy start in a game with such offensive firepower. Auburn is the key to this play in my opinion. Their shooting has just been off recently. The Tigers are getting their points by paint touches and getting to the free throw line. They have shot 36.8%, 28.6%, and 28% from three in their last three games. This Florida team is fantastic at guarding the three point line. The Gators are 6th in the country in opponent three point percentage. The Alamodome sightlines are also not going to do the Tigers any favors to find their form. Plenty of factors to account for predicting a sleepy Auburn offensive start.
Auburn was also really locked in on the defensive end in the Atlanta regional final rounds. Their #8 rated KenPom defense showed it’s teeth early in those matchups and held Michigan to 29 points & Michigan State to 24 points in the 1H. Dylan Cardwell has been an absolute brick wall.
Auburn’s recent poor shooting and early game defensive abilities lead me to believe that we can slide under 76 for the 1H. Sorry for not having fun. We can do that in the 2H.
Score Prediction: 1H Florida 37 – Auburn 35
Houston +5.5 -114 (FD) (8:49pm – CBS) **Best Bet**
I am siding with Vegas here. This spread is so bloated. In no world should this Houston team be 5.5 point dogs on a neutral to Duke. KenPom has this as a 2 point Duke win, BartTorvik has Houston slightly favored, yet we are seeing Duke getting nearly 70% of the bets at -5.5. A public peach. VegasInsider is reporting Duke is getting 69% of the bets, but only 53% of the money. You know the drill. I genuinely believe that Houston will be able to force their tempo in this game. Duke already has a slow average tempo per KenPom (269th), and they have been a pace chameleon due to their ability to execute in both the half court and in transition. In a game with fewer possessions, these 5 and a half points grow larger in importance. Listen, Duke doesn’t have many weaknesses. If we have to nitpick they are really struggling allowing offensive rebounds this tournament. They have gotten outrebounded on the offensive glass by Baylor, Arizona and Alabama. A total of 40 offensive rebounds grabbed by those three teams. Giving Houston second chance points is a recipe for disaster given their newly found efficient three point shooting this year. I am also just siding with the clear cut #1 defense on both KenPom AND ShotQuality in a game that should be very physical. JoJo Tugler just won the Lefty Driesell – National Defensive Player of the Year award and Cooper Flagg should see a lot of him.
The last time Duke was in a war with a defensive minded team they lost at Clemson. I think Houston has the recipe to pull off the upset here. I will gladly take the points. I expect this one to be a classic. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Duke 69 – Houston 68
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4/5 – Race to 10’s (15-12 ; up 3.09 pizzas)
Houston +115 (DK) – Houston’s physicality is going to be a wake up call early in this game in my opinion.
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4/5 – More Pizza!
Florida First Basket Made: 3Pter (+190) (DK) – Walter Clayton Jr. does it again!
Duke First FG Attempt: Missed 2pter (+190) (DK) – See Race to 10
Alex Condon (Florida) over 10.5 points (-120) (DK) : Was the best player on the court in the previous matchup. Excelled against a gamble heavy Auburn defense on drives from the Florida guards. I expect another big game.
Kon Knueppel (Duke) over 2.5 assists (-140) (DK) : Knueppel is a phenomenal passer. Assists are hard to come by against a Houston defense, but we will still see a Maluach lob or two to boost our total. I like our chances to get to at least 3 here.
Player Prop Parlay +105 (DK): Alex Condon (Florida) over 7.5 points + Milos Uzan (Houston) over 7.5 points + Sion James (Duke) over 5.5 points
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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