(photo: On3 – Blue Gold)
25/26 Season Record: 62-62
12/10 Card :
- Idaho/Notre Dame over 142.5 (7:00pm – ACC Extra) (Caesars) **Best Bet*
- Wisconsin +2 (9:00pm – BTN) (Caesars)
Can’t shake the bad juju following us around for several weeks now. Last night was more of the same. From Clemson blowing a 22 point halftime lead & nearly smoking our +6.5 … to Tomi Ivisic nailing the front of the rim on a 3 and the ball soaring in the air and falling back in to seal it for Illinois … to 85% Solo Ball having a free throw to cover and give us a 2-1 night and it clanking. It feels like it is a nightly occurrence. Just waiting for the grim reaper to show up and wash away our winning positions. We have had a season’s worth of this shit already. I am just going to keep with the process. Appreciate the real ones that have been here for years and know this is just a blip on the radar. We will get it right.
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Idaho/Notre Dame over 142.5 : You have to feel for the Irish. Notre Dame has been slowly (emphasis on slowly) improving during Micah Shrewsberry’s time in South Bend. They have gone from KenPom 118 in year one, to 98 last year, to 62nd as of today. Notre Dame has also just beaten Missouri and TCU for some excellent non-con wins to add to their resume. And then…
This is a huge loss for the Irish. Burton finished the 24/25 season 11th in the country in usage, and was hovering around the Top 30 this season. While this will be bad for Notre Dame from a team success perspective, I believe it offers us an opportunity to attack a total angle in short term before the markets catch up with how the offense will operate. The Markus Burton usage is centered around ISO and off-screen driving to the bucket. He only has 11 made threes in 10 games played this season. This should open up the pace a bit without any player of Burton’s type on the roster to take over this role. Notre Dame has two of the better shooters in the country in Braeden Shrewsberry and Cole Certa. The offense, in my opinion, should be getting them early and often looks from behind the arc. I think we see that today.
The Irish playing a bit faster today is important for the matchup we have here against Idaho. The Vandals are now 2nd in the country in 3pt rate. Shooting even more threes than they were a year ago. Notre Dame is 269th in defensive three point rate allowed & are not fantastic at guarding the perimeter. They are 166th in the country in 3pt% allowed. Shot Quality shows it should even be a bit worse. The more threes we get up in this game from both teams, the better.
I expect double digit threes here from both teams. Also, a bit of a faster pace game than you would expect on paper with the KenPom adjusted tempo. Give us the over. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 78 – Idaho 69
Wisconsin +2 : The nation’s longest win streak ends tonight. The Cornhuskers are rolling into tonight’s matchup on a 13 game win streak dating back to The Crown title that last year’s team took home. They are rightfully a 2pt favorite tonight with Big 10 home court in their favor. We will gladly take advantage of this market price.
The Badgers had a pretty big wake-up call a few weeks ago against BYU after a sleepy non-con schedule to start the year. Wisconsin got absolutely thrown around in Salt Lake City by the Cougars. Since then, this team has responded in a huge way. Dominant wins over Marquette, Northwestern and Providence followed. There was one loss to TCU mixed in there, but it was graded a SQ win and was against a TCU team playing out of their minds in San Diego following their upset of Florida. I can look past that one pretty easily. The metrics are there with this team.
This Shot Quality profile is one to drool over. The Badgers have the above statistics in their tool belt while also scoring 1.23 SQ PP and only allowing 1.00 SQ PPP. The 3PT frequency is something that I want to focus on. Nebraska is 362nd in the country in 3PT rate allowed this year. Shot Quality shows they should be allowing 37% on those. High quality threes being allowed to this Badgers team is a recipe for success for us tonight. John Blackwell is already at 29 made threes on the year, and the Badgers also have 4 other guys in double figures. Another angle I am looking at here is second chance points. Wisconsin is 11th in the country in keeping opponents off of the offensive glass. Nolan Winter is a monster on the boards. The Cornhuskers are 293rd in the country in obtaining offensive rebounds. The second chance points should be heavily in Wisconsin’s favor with Nebraska’s odds of getting a sizeable amount being slim.
I like backing Wisconsin as a short road dog here. Let’s snap the Nebraska streak.
Score Prediction: Wisconsin 81 – Nebraska 78
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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