(photo: BamaOnLine)
25/26 Season Record: 63-63
Some early adds for the 12/13 Card are below. Will have a few more tonight and/or tomorrow AM. Brief thoughts below on the early adds:
12/13 Card :
- Illinois -9 (4:00pm – Peacock) (Caesars) – The shooting splits are going to catch up with Nebraska at some point. Their first road game of the year against an elite roster feels like the time that occurs. The Cornhuskers are 362nd in opponent three point rate allowed. Those opponents are only shooting 29%, however. Shot Quality shows nearly 5% of regression should be coming their way. The Balkan Five have the ability to take advantage of this. Also, love the Illini in the frontcourt matchup here. I will lay the heavy number in a ranked matchup.
Score Prediction: Illinois 86 – Nebraska 72
- NC State -1.5 (5:30pm – ESPN) (DK) **Best Bet** – This is an ultra home court spot from a handicapping perspective. The Lenovo Center is going to be rocking with Will Wade welcoming his first ranked opponent to Raleigh. This fan base has been thirsting for this type of buzz around the program. It will be fiery. The Kansas defense is due for some of the heaviest regression in the Shot Quality matrix. They are allowing 0.95 PPP and their SQ PPP allowed sits at 1.13. Seems like the perfect time for the Regression Monster to show his teeth. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: NC State 80 – Kansas 73
- Kentucky -4 (6:30pm – ESPN) (Caesars) – I know guys, I know. No need to blast me in the replies for this. I get it & completely understand if you do not tail this pick. They have given you no reason to. However, my handicapping has this Kentucky -7. Indiana does not have the ability to wear out the Cats in the post as we have seen Michigan State, UNC and Gonzaga do recently. Reed Bailey is not that guy. Indiana also failed in their first road game of the season pretty miserably with a loss at Minnesota. I do not have faith in them coming into Rupp with the fan base making an emphasis on social media to lift this team up tomorrow. The Cats get a win they desperately need here.
Score Prediction: Kentucky 82 – Indiana 75
- Maryland +20 (8:0pm – FOX) (Caesars) – This number is simply too bloated. Michigan is an absolute freight train, but laying 20 at the Xfinity Center against a Buzz Williams coached team is a step too far. Michigan won by 4 points at TCU in their only road game of the season to this point. They have not proven to be immortal on the road to this point as they have at the Crisler Center and on neutrals. The Terps are 4th in the country in free throw rate. I love having that in our pocket in this matchup. We will need points where we can get them. Solo Washington and Pharrel Payne should also be able to compete on the glass enough to keep us within 20 here.
Score Prediction: Michigan 83 – Maryland 67
- Alabama +1.5 (9:30pm – ESPN) (Caesars) – The matchup with the Alabama and Arizona will be played in Birmingham. This should still be a rocking Crimson Tide atmosphere. It will feel pretty damn close to a home game. Arizona is coming into tomorrow’s game 363rd in the country in 3PT rate. This is going to be a huge clash of styles with Alabama sitting at 7th. Trading twos for threes can get away from you in a hostile road environment. Can Arizona make enough outside shots to stay in this one? I am not so sure. The Wildcats have a monster win over UConn in their only road game of the year to this point, but Tarris Reed and Braylon Mullins did not feature for the Huskies. I believe this is the first slip up of the year for Arizona. Nate Oats adds another signature win to his resume. This is the 2nd Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Alabama 89 – Arizona 84
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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