(photo: syracuse.com)
25/26 Season Record: 74-78
12/31 Card :
No words.
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
(photo: Marquette Today)
25/26 Season Record: 74-75
12/30 Card :
Back at it after 8 days off! Feels good to be back. I am ready to wash away the forgetful first half of our season and get back to rolling like we should be. 4-1 was a great way to send us off before break. Let’s get a 3-0 night to welcome us back!
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Bowling Green -5.5 : Do not let the records fool you here. Bowling Green is a justified favorite in this matchup. It is pretty embarrassing what Miami OH did with their non-con schedule this year. The average KenPom rank of the ten Division 1 teams that the RedHawks have faced is 283. They have also played three non-division 1 teams that have counted on their record. 13-0 is what the record shows, but we aren’t falling for that. The RedHawks have a lot of defensive holes that will be exposed today. Miami ranks 174th in KenPom adjusted def rating, and they are even worse on Shot Quality with a rank of 196. Bowling Green is by far the best offense that they have faced to this point. The Falcons have five double digit scorers and are shooting 49.8% from the field as a team.
I also love what we are seeing from the Bowling Green defense to this point in the season. The Falcons are 16th in the country in steal percentage. They are recording 13 per game as a team. Javontae Campbell leads the charge averaging 3.7 per game. Bowling Green is also pushing Top 50 in defensive efficiency on KenPom and Shot Quality. That is the edge in this game. Both offenses are capable of scoring, but only one defense is capable of getting necessary stops. I will lay the number here with Bowling Green. Miami OH takes their first loss of the season tonight.
Score Prediction: Bowling Green 82 – Miami OH 72
Marquette +1.5 : This Marquette team is better than their 5-8 record. I am sure of it. The Christmas break was needed for this group. The season was spiraling after a four game losing streak to Wisconsin, Purdue, Georgetown and Creighton. After 10 days off, I think we see a very inspired performance today. Shaka Smart is always great with an underdog narrative. That is where he thrives. The Golden Eagles are 6-3 ATS as a home dog since Smart was appointed head coach in 2021.
The regression analysis above shows that the Golden Eagles offense is very close to clicking. The action they are getting is fantastic. 1.15 SQ PPP is way up there for the schedule Marquette has faced. Also, SQ is showing that Seton Hall’s defense is flying well above their expected level. I think both of these units could start finding their way towards the mean in this matchup.
I love this spot for Marquette. Missed the best number at open yesterday, but I will gladly take them as a short home dog. The Golden Eagles win an important one.
Score Prediction: Marquette 76 – Seton Hall 70
Cal +8.5 : Ran out of time to get a full write-up on this one. In short, Louisville has not been the same team on the road. They are 0-2 straight up and ATS on the season. I understand that the competition level in those games is superior to this Cal team, but the Golden Bears are spunky in my opinion. Keep your eye on Semetri Carr. This freshman is starting to flourish and is an X-Factor to Cal’s success.
Score Prediction: Louisville 84 – Cal 78
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
(photo: MSN)
25/26 Season Record: 70-74
12/22 Card :
3-3 yesterday. Add Valpo to the list of “How in the fuck did we not cover that spread”. Covering the entire game until the very last seconds for us to lose by a hook. DePaul also let us down late. 5-1 was there for the taking, and we get a 3-3 shit sandwich once again. Here’s to hoping this turns soon. REAL soon.
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
(photo: Providence Athletics)
25/26 Season Record: 65-66
12/19 Card :
12/20 Early Add: San Diego State +14.5 (DK)
Back in action! Appreciate those that checked in. All is well. Just was feeling frustrated with how the capping was going over the last few weeks and wanted to take a break for several days. The mind is clear and we are ready to rock. Three-pack tonight. Eyeing many for tomorrow. Let’s get back to the winning ways.
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
(photo: BamaOnLine)
25/26 Season Record: 63-63
Some early adds for the 12/13 Card are below. Will have a few more tonight and/or tomorrow AM. Brief thoughts below on the early adds:
12/13 Card :
Score Prediction: Illinois 86 – Nebraska 72
Score Prediction: NC State 80 – Kansas 73
Score Prediction: Kentucky 82 – Indiana 75
Score Prediction: Michigan 83 – Maryland 67
Score Prediction: Alabama 89 – Arizona 84
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
(photo: On3 – Blue Gold)
25/26 Season Record: 62-62
12/10 Card :
Can’t shake the bad juju following us around for several weeks now. Last night was more of the same. From Clemson blowing a 22 point halftime lead & nearly smoking our +6.5 … to Tomi Ivisic nailing the front of the rim on a 3 and the ball soaring in the air and falling back in to seal it for Illinois … to 85% Solo Ball having a free throw to cover and give us a 2-1 night and it clanking. It feels like it is a nightly occurrence. Just waiting for the grim reaper to show up and wash away our winning positions. We have had a season’s worth of this shit already. I am just going to keep with the process. Appreciate the real ones that have been here for years and know this is just a blip on the radar. We will get it right.
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Idaho/Notre Dame over 142.5 : You have to feel for the Irish. Notre Dame has been slowly (emphasis on slowly) improving during Micah Shrewsberry’s time in South Bend. They have gone from KenPom 118 in year one, to 98 last year, to 62nd as of today. Notre Dame has also just beaten Missouri and TCU for some excellent non-con wins to add to their resume. And then…
NEWS: Notre Dame’s Markus Burton will undergo ankle surgery on Wednesday and has no timetable for a return, per release.
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) December 9, 2025
STORY ➡️ https://t.co/QkzpZ88Sse pic.twitter.com/yVkh83A6Pp
This is a huge loss for the Irish. Burton finished the 24/25 season 11th in the country in usage, and was hovering around the Top 30 this season. While this will be bad for Notre Dame from a team success perspective, I believe it offers us an opportunity to attack a total angle in short term before the markets catch up with how the offense will operate. The Markus Burton usage is centered around ISO and off-screen driving to the bucket. He only has 11 made threes in 10 games played this season. This should open up the pace a bit without any player of Burton’s type on the roster to take over this role. Notre Dame has two of the better shooters in the country in Braeden Shrewsberry and Cole Certa. The offense, in my opinion, should be getting them early and often looks from behind the arc. I think we see that today.
The Irish playing a bit faster today is important for the matchup we have here against Idaho. The Vandals are now 2nd in the country in 3pt rate. Shooting even more threes than they were a year ago. Notre Dame is 269th in defensive three point rate allowed & are not fantastic at guarding the perimeter. They are 166th in the country in 3pt% allowed. Shot Quality shows it should even be a bit worse. The more threes we get up in this game from both teams, the better.
I expect double digit threes here from both teams. Also, a bit of a faster pace game than you would expect on paper with the KenPom adjusted tempo. Give us the over. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 78 – Idaho 69
Wisconsin +2 : The nation’s longest win streak ends tonight. The Cornhuskers are rolling into tonight’s matchup on a 13 game win streak dating back to The Crown title that last year’s team took home. They are rightfully a 2pt favorite tonight with Big 10 home court in their favor. We will gladly take advantage of this market price.
The Badgers had a pretty big wake-up call a few weeks ago against BYU after a sleepy non-con schedule to start the year. Wisconsin got absolutely thrown around in Salt Lake City by the Cougars. Since then, this team has responded in a huge way. Dominant wins over Marquette, Northwestern and Providence followed. There was one loss to TCU mixed in there, but it was graded a SQ win and was against a TCU team playing out of their minds in San Diego following their upset of Florida. I can look past that one pretty easily. The metrics are there with this team.
This Shot Quality profile is one to drool over. The Badgers have the above statistics in their tool belt while also scoring 1.23 SQ PP and only allowing 1.00 SQ PPP. The 3PT frequency is something that I want to focus on. Nebraska is 362nd in the country in 3PT rate allowed this year. Shot Quality shows they should be allowing 37% on those. High quality threes being allowed to this Badgers team is a recipe for success for us tonight. John Blackwell is already at 29 made threes on the year, and the Badgers also have 4 other guys in double figures. Another angle I am looking at here is second chance points. Wisconsin is 11th in the country in keeping opponents off of the offensive glass. Nolan Winter is a monster on the boards. The Cornhuskers are 293rd in the country in obtaining offensive rebounds. The second chance points should be heavily in Wisconsin’s favor with Nebraska’s odds of getting a sizeable amount being slim.
I like backing Wisconsin as a short road dog here. Let’s snap the Nebraska streak.
Score Prediction: Wisconsin 81 – Nebraska 78
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
(photo: Imagn Images)
25/26 Season Record: 61-60
12/9 Card :
Wanted to get a write-up out today, but won’t have the time. Sorry friends. Will pivot and come with one tomorrow morning for the 12/10 card.
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
(photo: 247 Sports)
25/26 Season Record: 61-58
FINALLY!!!! This shit might be finally turning back our way, fellas. What a monster day we had yesterday! Let’s build on it today. Long way to go to get back to where we need to be. Let’s finish the week strong.
Write-Up coming for Tuesday’s card. Likely no plays tomorrow on the short slate.
12/7 Card :
Towson +9.5 (Caesars)
Georgetown/UNC over 150.5 (FD)
Best of luck! Let’s Snipe!!!
(photo: 247 Sports)
25/26 Season Record: 54-57
I am in love with this card today. That may be a bad thing with how things are going. I understand. Today’s card will result in us getting hot or shutting it down for the foreseeable future. May the odds be ever in our favor.
12/6 Card :
Duke ML -110 (Caesars)
South Carolina -22 (Caesars)
Marquette/Wisconsin over 157.5 (FD)
Boise State +5.5 (Caesars)
Louisville -3.5 (MGM)
Washington +4.5 (DK)
Wake Forest/WVU under 141.5 (FD)
Illinois/Tennessee over 150.5 (DK)
Best of luck! Let’s Snipe!!!
(photo: Jordan Prather – Imagn Images)
25/26 Season Record: 53-55
The return of the Best Bet was a success. The Bulls ran Utah State out of the gym. Wish the Gauchos could’ve pulled off the perfect night with a cherry on top. Oh well. Back today with a 3-pack. It appears Jaland Lowe is set to make his return tonight for the Cats. That is not confirmed, but KSR believes he has a real chance after live practicing this week. That will help the flow of the offense tremendously, and get Aberdeen back into his normal role. Even without Lowe, I love the Cats catching 5.5. The return of Lowe would be a cherry on top. Best Bet. Let’s get hot!
12/5 Card :
Kentucky +5.5 (DK) **Best Bet**
Cincinnati +2 (Caesars)
Notre Dame +7.5 (DK)
Best of luck! Let’s Snipe!!!
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