Purdue TT over 77.5 : The Boilermaker offense is absolutely humming. The Zach Edey led offense is averaging 84 ppg in the this year’s tournament. This includes a 72 point performance against a Tennessee defensive unit that was playing as well as anyone in the country. It starts with the big man. There is simply no answer for Edey at this point in his career. His knowledge of the game (and the way it is called – pour one out again for the Vols) has risen to an even higher level than we have seen from him before. He is putting on one of the most impressive individual performances we have ever seen in March Madness. We all have to respect it. His ability to score and facilitate (will get into this later) in this game will be the reason why Purdue clears this total.
Purdue’s style will translate just fine to a football stadium backdrop. They do not have to rely on the three ball. I don’t see many answers in this NC State team defensively for Purdue. I will attack this angle instead of worrying about laying points even though I lean Purdue as the favorite as well.
Score Prediction:Purdue 82 points
Alabama 1H under 35.5 : I wanted exposure to this ferocious UConn defense tonight. This is the best angle to attack in my opinion. The Huskies are only allowing 22.8 ppg in the 1H in this tournament. 22.8!!! (wtf). Dan Hurley has his guys taking pride in coming out and completely putting a stranglehold on their opponent. I believe they do so again today.
Alabama is 3rd in the country in Rim & 3 rate per ShotQuality. Nate Oats ensures that his guys are either getting shots at the rim or getting off a three point attempt. Spoiler Alert! They will not be getting many shots at the rim tonight.
Illinois shot 3/25 from inside the arc (12%) in Donovan Clingan's 22 minutes, going 0-for-19 when challenging him directly, according to @ESPNStatsInfo. He changed the game with his 7'7 wingspan and incredible timing as a rim-protector, while also moving well on the perimeter. https://t.co/beCuzDGXWQpic.twitter.com/x6COOumfD9
The Donovan Clingan rim protection cannot be overstated. The Illini were 0-19 on shots challenging Clingan in the Elite 8 domination by the Huskies. I expect the Tide to rely heavily on the three point line due to this. That is not always a recipe for success in Final Fours. We have seen the shooting backdrop of football stadiums create real problems for jump shooting reliant teams. This is especially true in first halves. Also, I am daring Jarin Stevenson to shoot early threes if I am Danny Hurley. Stevenson was barely a 30% three point shooter coming into the Tide’s game against Clemson where he made 5 three pointers. I would live with letting him try to be the one to beat you from deep early.
This is my favorite play of the night and a Best Bet. The UConn defense continues to stand on business in this one.
Score Prediction: Alabama 31 points
Zach Edey over 2.5 assists : This is going to be a big facilitation night for Edey in my opinion. NC State has no answer on the roster for what Edey brings offensively. They are going to have to send helpless doubles (and triples) all game long. This will allow Edey to either going to kick to Jones, Loyer or Smith for threes … dish wrap-arounds to Kaufman-Renn .. or find Gillis or Heide on cuts to the rim. Edey has recorded 3 assists or more 14 times this season. I think this is a great matchup to take a shot at plus money.
Score Prediction: Zach Edey 3 assists
DJ Burns Jr under 13.5 points : This is probably the biggest downer bet I have placed this season. Going into a game rooting for DJ Burns Jr. not to score is not a great feeling. However, I believe it is necessary tonight. The mixture of Edey, Kaufman-Renn and Gillis is going to be a massive problem for DJ tonight. They all have the quickness and physicality to bang with him when he wants to get physical. The Boilermakers are also insanely disciplined in their interior defense. There won’t be many opportunities at the line in this one for Burns. I also fear for him defensively. Foul trouble seems like a real possibility tonight. The spike in performance has DJ’s number this high, but we are really just betting on him to score his season average or less. That seems like a good bet.
Score Prediction: DJ Burns 12 points
Mark Sears over 2.5 threes : This is my favorite prop of the night and another Best Bet. As I discussed earlier, I believe that there will be a heavy volume of three point attempts from the Tide tonight. Especially from Mr. Sears. He is averaging 4.3 makes on 9.5 attempts from distance in this tournament. I believe we see the same (if not more) volume tonight from Sears. I am trusting the All-American to knock down at least three of them. Sears is probably to only Alabama player I trust tonight.
Score Prediction: Mark Sears 4 threes
Tristen Newton under 16.5 points : Trust me. I believe Newton could score 20+ tonight if he wanted to. This is a great matchup for him offensively. However, I believe he will find more joy facilitating tonight. Newton is one of the best passers in the country, and I believe it will be easy for him to drive and find open teammates all night long against the suspect Alabama defense. The points will be spread around evenly through the Huskies roster tonight in my opinion. I think Newton stays under the 16.5.
Marquette -6.5 &Marquette TT over 78.5 (7:09pm – CBS)
Gonzaga +5.5 (7:39pm – TBS)
Duke/Houston 1H under 63 (9:39pm – CBS)
Tennessee -2.5 (10:09pm – TBS)
(Lines may change a tad while I am writing this blog. Don’t kill me if they do! Posting what I played)
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Clemson +7 : We are 2-0 ATS with the Tigers in this tournament and we aren’t stopping now! Chase Hunter is absolutely cooking. Hard to argue with what PJ Hall said in this interview:
“This is what I came here for.” #Clemson center PJ Hall reacts to the sweet sixteen berth.
He also says Chase Hunter is playing like the best two way guard in the country: 👇🏻👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/9FLOtQXt9t
Not only has Hunter scored 20+ points in the opening two rounds, but he is also facilitating better than he has all year. Chase recorded 6 assists in BOTH of these games. The defense has been phenomenal as well. He completely had Jamal Mashburn Jr. in his pocket in the opening round, and then created a ton of havoc for the Baylor backcourt in the R32. The Tigers are playing with two elite players at the moment and the rest of the cast is doing a phenomenal job of filling in the gaps. This team is dangerous.
I like this matchup for Clemson against Arizona. Here are some of the Tiger strengths per Shot Quality:
The post-up stat is intriguing after you take a deep dive into Arizona’s profile. Arizona is 282nd in the country in SQ PPP allowed in post-up scenarios. This will be a juicy way for Clemson to attack the Wildcat defense with Hall, Clark, and Schieffelin. DaRon Holmes showed us some of these cracks in the post-up defense as well. Arizona is also 190th in the country in Open 3 rate allowed on defense. Clemson’s profile of being the 13th most efficient 3PT shooting team + the 14th best spacing team will lead to some huge momentum threes in this matchup.
Arizona is a great team that have matchup edges as well. They will likely win this game. I just feel like Clemson has enough of a punch to keep us within this number here. Give us the points. This is my Best Bet for Thursday.
Score Prediction:Arizona 78 – Clemson 74
SDSU/UConn under 136 : It is truly amazing how good this UConn defense is. The Huskies are coming off of 2023 championship where they only allowed 59.2 ppg in the tournament. Don’t look now … but the defense might even be better this year. The Huskies are currently rated #1 in the SQ adjDEF rating. UConn only allowed 57 points to Marquette in the Big East Championship. They followed up that impressive performance by only allowing 56 PPG in the first two rounds of this year’s tournament. The defensive gameplan and execution against Northwestern was so impressive. The 58 point total was not a fluke. The ShotQuality score actually shows that Northwestern should have only scored 55 points. Donovan Clingan is actually not fair:
Donovan Clingan had one of the best defensive performances we've seen all season helping UConn advance to the Sweet 16. Put a lid on the rim with 14 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 blocks. pic.twitter.com/DBs4BVrJqP
San Diego State can also defend their asses off. The Aztecs are 9th in the KenPom adjusted defensive rating. This will be the best defensive team that the Huskies have faced all year long. This is also a rematch of the national title game from a year ago & should provide some extra defensive intensity for both units. Pace should also be in our favor here. It may shock you, but UConn is only 315th in the country in adjusted tempo. Brian Dutcher will also implement an offensive gameplan to keep this to a low possession game. That is the best way to not allow the UConn talent advantage takeover.
San Diego State may keep this one close for a while, but the Huskies are inevitable. I like UConn to win by double digits while keeping us under this total.
Score Prediction: UConn 71 – San Diego State 61
UNC -3.5 (FanDuel) : Alabama was extremely lucky to defeat Grand Canyon and make it to the Sweet 16. Even with the 10-0 run to end the game, the ShotQuality score only showed that they should have won that game by 4 points (89-85). It was very sloppy and the only player that was playing efficiently was Mark Sears. That won’t cut it against the Heels. The defensive edge for North Carolina in this matchup is too much to overcome.
The Hubert Davis doubters have to admit it at this point. He has developed an elite defense in Year 3. The Tar Heels rank 6th in the adjusted defensive efficiency rating on KenPom, and ShotQuality has them at 7th in their adjDEF rating. The Crimson Tide rank 101st and 80th in those same ratings. The edge that Alabama normally has on the offensive end is negated in this matchup because North Carolina is just as good on that end of the court. Grand Canyon exploited Alabama’s glaring weakness on the defensive glass. The Tide are 340th (!!!) in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. The Lopes were able to take advantage of this and grab 15 offensive rebounds. The Heels are 56th in the country in grabbing offensive rebounds and should be able to deliver close to the same amount of damage in that regard.
Latrell Wrightsell (head injury) will be available for #Alabama's Sweet 16 matchup with North Carolina.
"He's had some real bad luck here lately. But we're gonna be playing again, and he can play with us again on Thursday."
Alabama is also entering this matchup a little bit banged up. It appears that Oats is claiming that Wrightsell will be available for this game. I guess we have to take him at his word, but Wrightsell has been in and out of this lineup so many times this year. I am not sure that you can count on this.
North Carolina is the better team here. The defensive edge will help them win this one down the stretch. I am laying the points.
Score Prediction: North Carolina 87 – Alabama 80
Illinois +2 : This is a major contrast in styles. One of the best offenses in the country vs one of the best defenses in the country. I am siding with the offense and Mr. Terrence Shannon Jr. in this one.
Iowa State gets a lot of their offense from turnovers that lead to transition buckets. Illinois does not force a ton of turnovers, but when they do it is almost always an automatic bucket the other way:
The Illini will get downhill no matter the situation. It doesn’t have to be a turnover. They can beat you like this on a missed or made shot as well. Illinois sits at 17th in the country in SQ PPP in transition, and Iowa State is 32nd. I think if Illinois can beat Iowa State at their own game in transition, then their vastly better halfcourt offense will be the difference maker in this game.
The ShotQuality model agrees heavily with my sentiment. The Illinois defense isn’t as bad as most are saying. They are 55th in the SQ adjDEF rating. They will do enough to get Illinois the win here. I will always ride with Terrence Shannon Jr. in a close game in a tournament setting. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: Illinois 74 – Iowa State 71
Marquette -6.5 and TT over 78.5 : This is going to be the snoozer of the Sweet 16, folks. I am expecting a full on blitzing by the Golden Eagles.
Oso Ighodaro is a big reason why Marquette will win this going away.
Marquette has a real versatility advantage on offense with Eddie Lampkin guarding Oso Ighodaro.
Oso will do similar things to DJ Burns Jr. as he did to Eddie Lampkin yesterday. He is too quick and athletic for a defender of this build to stay in front. I think Ighodaro also has an edge on Diarra if he were to guard him as well. Oso can pull Diarra away from the basket and that will leave driving opportunities for Kolek and Jones. This is a lose-lose situation for the Wolfpack defensively.
Tyler Kolek is healthy. That is an understatement. Kolek may be my player of the tournament to this point.
Pick and roll clinic by Tyler Kolek helping Marquette advance to the Sweet 16 with a win over Colorado. Got anywhere he wanted on the floor, finishing skillfully and delivering phenomenal passes. 21 points, 11 assists, 5 rebounds for the projected first round pick. pic.twitter.com/agPWRwUgtt
I don’t see any way for NC State to keep up with what Kolek & Ighodaro will do to them offensively. The Golden Eagles have a point to prove, and I think they do it in a big way in this game. Marquette -6.5 is my Best Bet for Friday & and I will also be taking the TT over 78.5.
Score Prediction: Marquette 84 – NC State 70
Gonzaga +5.5 : I have a feeling this is going to be a lot closer than the market indicates. This is a rematch of a Maui Invitational game. The Boilermakers were able to win that game by 10 points. Things are a lot different now. Most notably? Mark Few’s decision to give a starting role & minutes to Ben Gregg instead of Dusty Stromer.
Mark Few on Portland native Ben Gregg:
"How about Ben? Ben's really hurting. His ankle is bothering him… Look at his line… Just all on straight hustle and guts. He's mister Zag. He grew up watching this program and it was his dream to play here and he plays like it. This… pic.twitter.com/xTJVn4DFB0
The Zags are 16-2 since making that switch. Mark Few says it all in the interview above. Gregg is the heart and soul of this team and they are better when he is on the court.
Gonzaga is not hurting for bodies to compete with Edey in the post & on the glass. Watson, Ike, Huff and Gregg are all capable of switching off duties to ensure nobody gets into serious foul trouble. Even without Gregg in a starting role, the Zags were still able to outrebound Purdue on the offensive glass 13 to 8 in the previous meeting. I like their chances to *limit* the damage from Edey in comparison to what he did to Utah State.
We also need to talk about Ryan Nembhard. He is averaging 10.8 assists in his last 5 games. This play creation will be needed in a big time game like this.
Here are Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman and Ben Gregg on Ryan setting the program record for assists in a season. Nolan: “He’s the GOAT” Ben: “I bet Andrew is a little jealous right now” pic.twitter.com/9x20tfYQzV
I think this game comes down to the final possession & that Purdue is barely able to survive and advance. I would not be stunned to see Gonzaga pull the upset. Predicting a nailbiter and maybe even an extra frame for all of you sickos who love crazy props (I do not recommend!).
Score Prediction: Purdue 78 – Gonzaga 77
Duke/Houston 1H under 63 : Both of these teams are coming off of a ton of points scored in the Round of 32. Duke was able to get this done by hitting 14 threes combined a snowball of momentum that starting rolling from the opening tip against JMU. Houston got there a bit differently. The Cougars got into an up & down “Who can drive to the basket the fastest?” contest with A&M. The foul trouble and free throws that they allowed almost got them bounced from the tournament way sooner than expected.
Houston’s mistakes in the Texas A&M game lead me to believe they will try to get back to a “slow it down” halfcourt pace. The Cougars rank 346th in the country in adjusted tempo. That will be just fine with Duke. They prefer to play in the halfcourt as well and their adjusted tempo number is 245th. I also think that both offenses may experience a bit of culture shock in playing one another after how easy they found it to score in the last round. These defenses are ELITE. Houston ranks 2nd in SQ and KenPom in defensive efficiency, and Duke ranks 9th and 18th.
I believe that we see a slow start out of the gate in this one. Give us the 1H under.
Score Prediction: Houston 30 – Duke 29
Tennessee -2.5: This was very close to a Best Bet. We placed a +1800 ticket on the Vols to be our national champion when the bracket was announced. I still am in love with our ticket. This team is for real.
Let’s talk about Dalton Knecht. I really enjoyed Mark Titus’ breakdown of what Knecht means to Tennessee’s tournament run.
This point is so important. Especially with an opponent like Creighton. The Jays have Alexander and Scheierman that they know they can count on in these moments. Tennessee would likely lose a game like this in previous years. Knecht fills a major gap in what will bring Tennessee from a successful program that never gets it done, to a team that can compete to win the whole thing.
The Volunteer defense continues to be elite. The Vols are 3rd in the KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency rating. That is how they will win this game. Creighton would have to destroy Tennessee from the three point line to win this game, and I just don’t see it. The Vols are rated 2nd in the country in Open 3 Rate defensively per ShotQuality. They aggressively contest these attempts. Creighton struggled with the physicality of Dante and Couisnard in the Oregon game, and were very lucky to make it out alive to the Sweet 16. Tennessee has the depth to enforce the same physicality and be relentless until the final whistle.
Michigan State -6.5 : Will try to keep this article short and concise since we have a lengthy card. This game is being played in Minneapolis and this has a lot of the public jazzed up to back one of the best ATS darlings of the season. However, the Gophers are on a downward spiral. Minnesota is 1-4 straight up and ATS in their last 5. There are rumors circling about Dawson Garcia courting NIL offers behind the scenes. Could this be the reason? Whatever it may be, they are consistently showing no fight in 2H’s during this rough patch. Tom Izzo will take advantage of that today in a situation where he needs to boost their resume metrics. Michigan State split with the Gophers in the season series, but Shot Quality graded both games as a Michigan State win. I like Sparty by double digits this afternoon.
Score Prediction:Michigan State 74 – Minnesota 64
Arizona -8.5 : The Trojans have been great to us during this late season surge once they returned to full health. Today is the day where we finally get off of the wagon. Arizona is primed to take revenge for their loss to the Trojans over the weekend. The Wildcats actually won that game on the SQ score (75-71). Arizona’s SQ profile is just so impressive. They are 3rd in the overall adjusted SQ rating (7th in offense, 4th in defense). The Wildcats are averaging 1.20 SQ PPP on offense, while only allowing 1.01 on defense. The Trojans are are 1.08 on both ends of the court. The class of Arizona will be too much today. I am backing them to win big in this immediate revenge spot.
Score Prediction: Arizona 85 – USC 72
Ohio State/Iowa under 154 : Iowa’s Big Ten Tournament openers have gone under in 3 out of their last 4. This includes last year’s matchup against Ohio State that finished on 142 points with a 151.5 closing total in Vegas. Fran McCaffery tends to run more sets instead of “run and gun” in these do or die scenarios. Fewer possessions might not be a great thing today. This Ohio State defense is the real deal under Diebler. The energy is through the roof and they are finally taking pride in stopping their opponents again. Below are their last 4 defensive performances:
Michigan State – 57 points
Nebraska – 69 points
Michigan – 61 points
Rutgers – 51 points
My prediction is that Iowa plays slower than their norm and that Ohio State’s defense continues to rock out. This is a Best Bet. This is also ShotQuality approved with a predicted final of 143.6.
Score Prediction: Ohio State 75 – Iowa 73
Villanova +4 : This is going to make you uncomfortable after yesterday’s stinker against DePaul. That is ok. That is what Vegas wants you to feel. Villanova has shown time and time again this season that we should not get too high or too low on them based on their wins and losses. That is my angle today with this short spread. The Wildcats tend to play to the level of their opponent. Marquette will get their juices flowing and I think we see a spirited effort today from this veteran group. The Golden Eagles are still trying to get healthy before next week. That is what means the most to them at this point. Without Kolek, I like Villanova’s chances to get a big win and firmly put their name in the field of 68. This is my second Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Villanova 71 – Marquette 69
UGA/UF under 155.5 : This is another game that may make you feel uncomfortable. These teams reached 200 & 170 points in their first two meetings this year. The pace and efficiency was through the roof. Tournament time always tightens up the pace and hampers efficiency so I think there is room to attack an under here. Florida’s rim protection *should* be able to dominate today more than they have in the recent meetings. I also think that UGA has the perimeter defense to bother Clayton and Pullin a bit. I had this game at 151 and will be happy to step in here and buck the trend from the previous two meetings this season. Go defense!
Score Prediction: Florida 79 – UGA 72
New Mexico +1.5 : Guard play, Guard play, Guard play. The Lobos have a very heavy edge in guard play in this matchup in my opinion. That is what you want in March. I am stunned that they got swept in the season series by Boise State. With the Broncos safely in the field and New Mexico still fighting for a birth, I like New Mexico to get some revenge and pick up a massive win for their resume.
American lost their regular season finale over the weekend to Navy. That made it 4 straight losses at home and a spoiled Senior Night for Matt Rogers. It looks like this team is on a downward spiral on the surface. ShotQuality shows a different story.
American has won the SQ score in 9 out of their last 10 games. This includes a current streak of 6 in a row:
It is so apparent to see what the problem is when you watch American. This team is receiving a terrible luck on the defensive end. Their 1.03 SQ PPP allowed is some of the best you will see at the low mid-major level. Yet, they are allowing 1.11 PPP. That is the reason that their record isn’t more impressive than it is. I am convinced this is the 2nd best team in this conference. It is a common phrase that “It is hard to beat a team three times in a row”. No, it’s not. Bucknell is a great matchup for American. Their 0.96 SQ PPP on offense should lend to an impressive defensive performance from the Eagles today. The Bison also had major trouble defending Matt Rogers in the first two meetings. He averaged 16.5 pts / 6 reb / 4 ast in those games. The Patriot plays their tournament on home courts of the higher seeds. I just have a hard time believing that Matt Rogers will allow American to be in a situation where they could lose the last 5 home games of his career. I think we see a monster game from him today.
American is finally healthy and they are primed to give this Patriot tournament their best shot. I like them to win emphatically today. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction:American 69 – Bucknell 58
IPFW +4 : I am feeling pretty great about our +1300 ticket right now..
Head over to ShotQuality for Max’s breakdown on this one. Link below:
UCLA +9 : Stat of the day: UCLA is 3-0 ATS as a home underdog this year. If you expand that out further, the Bruins are 7-1 ATS as home dogs during Cronin’s tenure. There have been times during this season where Cronin has looked completely checked out with this group, but he always brings the heat for the big games.
The Bruins took Arizona to the brink at the McKale Center earlier this season. UCLA built out a 19 point lead in that game, but were unable to hold on and ultimately lost by 6. This propelled them into a really good spell of play. They won the SQ score in 8 straight games which helped them obtain a 6-2 record in that stretch. The Bruins then traveled to Washington and got convincingly swept by the Washington schools. However, I believe they will return back home to Pauley Pavilion tonight and give a great effort against a Top 5 team.
I am trusting in Mick to keep this one close with his X’s and O’s. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: Arizona 77 – UCLA 72
SIUE +10 : This play is not powered by analytics or trends. This a a feel play. I watched a little bit of the Cougars game last night with Eastern Illinois and they really impressed me. The energy was fantastic and they were lockdown on the defensive end. It’s March, so you always want the team you are backing to have superb guard play. SIUE has just that. Minor, Wright and Taylor went for a combined for 55 out of the Cougars 68 points. I think they can keep this game within double digits in a win or go home setting.
Rutgers -3 : Woah baby .. this thing is steaming. The line is currently sitting around -4.5 in the market. I even see -5’s at some places. -4.5 is a fair price and I would still lay it there. This is Northwestern’s first road game without Ty Berry. The RAC is not a fun place to figure out a new rotation.
The Scarlet Knights are on a three game winning streak. There are many reasons to point to for this recent heater. The main one in my opinion? Jeremiah Williams. The 23/24 Rutgers team has an elite defense just as we have seen many times before under Pikiell. They are rated 17th in the Shot Quality adjusted defensive rating. The Scarlet Knights got off to a poor start this year because the offense just simply wasn’t at a high enough level to consistently win even with the great defense. That changed three games ago when Jeremiah Williams received his clearance from the NCAA.
— Rutgers Scarlet Knights | TheKnightReport.Net (@RutgersRivals) February 7, 2024
Kevin Willard says it all in the presser above. This team is completely different with Williams in the fold. He is just what Rutgers needed. A veteran guard who can score at every level and defend to the level of this teammates. Rutgers is back.
With Williams in the fold for Rutgers and Berry out for NW, this line was just too short. I would lay the -4.5 as well if you are just now getting your action in for the day. The Scarlet Knights roll. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction:Rutgers 70 – Northwestern 61
Tulane +3.5 : Tulane should not be an underdog in NOLA tonight. I had this game as Tulane -1. FanDuel was graciously hanging a +3.5 number out there this morning. I was happy to lock that in. I would still endorse the current number as well. Tulane is winning this game.
SMU beat Tulane on February 1st by a score of 80-76. Tulane outshot SMU in both FG% and 3PT%, but lost the game due to an overwhelming amount of offensive rebounds pulled in by the Mustangs. 19 to be exact. This is not something that I am concerned about tonight. It was an aberration for the Green Wave season. Tulane ranks 4th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage per Shot Quality. The rebounds will be much more balanced tonight.
The Green Wave are 2-0 ATS this season as a home underdog. They make that a perfect 3-0 tonight. Roll Wave!
UMass +4 : This should have been a PK spread in my opinion. Richmond -1 at the most. I believe there is a ton of value in getting the Minutemen at +4 in this matchup. The Spiders are still very inflated in the market due to their 9-1 record in A-10 play. I am not a believer.
Richmond’s defense is fraudulent. I have watched them many times this season and they are consistently getting away with allowing open looks. The Shot Quality analytics agree. SQ expects major defensive regression in the near future:
Richmond’s impressive record is stemming from a 1.08 to .96 differential in PPP scored and allowed. However, Shot Quality has those numbers at 1.07 and 1.06. Comparatively, UMass is scoring 1.15 PPP per Shot Quality while allowing 1.10 on defense. The offensive attack of the Minutemen should be able to take advantage of the defensive regression coming Richmond’s way. I also like the way Josh Cohen matches up with Neal Quinn. A big night is ahead for Cohen in my opinion.
UMass is a better team and I believe they pull off the upset tonight. Hopefully we can get a bonus Frank Martin freakout as a cherry on top. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction:UMass 74 – Richmond 72
Braeden Shrewsberry over 11.5 points : Fellas, this might be my favorite prop of the season to this point. Micah Shrewsberry now has full trust in his son to play big minutes for this team and get up a heavy volume of field goal attempts. It took a while for the freshman to find his footing in the college game, but he has been very impressive in the new year. Braeden’s averages still have not caught up to his recent production, so now is the time to attack his prop market before it gets inflated.
Shrewsberry has cleared 11.5 points in 7 of his last 10 games. He has also connected on at least two three pointers in ALL 10 of these games. He is averaging 3.2 three point makes on 6.8 attempts per game during this stretch. Georgia Tech is 215th in the country in Open 3 Rate allowed on defense per Shot Quality. They are also 164th in the country in percentage of points allowed from threes. I expect another heavy volume night for Braeden. To further prove the sentiment above, here is where Shrewsberry ranks in the three point percentiles per Shot Quality:
The spacing percentile is important to note as well due to the Open 3 Rate defensive metric from the Yellow Jackets. Braeden will have some great looks tonight.
The minutes and volume of shots are there. The matchup is there. I love this play. This is another Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Braeden Shrewsberry 16 points
Wyoming +7 : This line has moved to 8 at most places. It is not surprising to see people interested in grabbing Utah State as a single digit favorite. However, I love this play and would definitely endorse the better number in the marketplace right now as well.
Laramie is not an easy place to walk in and win as a road favorite. The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS as a home underdog this season. Two very good teams have lost outright this year in Laramie laying a similar number as Utah State. Nevada and Colorado State both lost outright as 7.5 point favorites. Also, the Aggies are only 1-2-1 ATS as a road favorite this season. I think this is a great spot for us to back the Cowboys.
Not a ton of basketball analysis here. This is just a situational spot that I love. I am happy with my +7 ticket and will probably add a little more wherever this number lands. Go Cowboys!
Purdue -2 : I promise I do not have it out for the Badgers. I just feel like their pricing in the market is heavily inflated at the moment. This spread should be sitting around -4.5 or -5. We were finally able to take advantage in the midweek with Nebraska’s come back win. I think Purdue walks into the Kohl Center and gets a victory today just as they did a season ago. Wisconsin had no answers for Zach Edey as he went for 17 & 19 on 7/9 shooting from the field. That will be the recipe for success again today for the Boilermakers.
The Badgers are living dangerously as I previously discussed in an article. They now have been graded out with losses in 4 out of their last 6 games by the Shot Quality score. One of their weaknesses is the quality of three point shots they are allowing. They rank 298th in the country in quality of 3’s allowed per Shot Quality. Purdue has the snipers to take advantage of this when they collapse on Edey. I feel comfortable laying the points here. This bet is Shot Quality model approved. Below is the prediction:
Score Prediction:Purdue 74 – Wisconsin 69
Villanova -4.5 : Doing something special today. I have brought in https://twitter.com/ZGtheGrapevine to help us with the write-up today!
ZG: After dropping their 5th straight to Marquette earlier in the week, this is about as “must win” as it gets for Kyle Neptune’s bunch. Villanova’s backs are against the wall here and I see them putting their best foot forward at home. Villanova plays at an incredibly slow pace, averaging 69 possessions per game, ranking 268th in the country. I think we see a good, old fashioned, Big East slobber-knocker with Villanova dictating the flow of the game. My model projects this game’s total at 133.96. Providence has also shown a tendency to be turnover-prone, averaging 13 turnovers per game and are 238th in turnover percentage, according to KenPom. Nova is just flat out better at taking care of the basketball. Both teams are defending at a competent level, but the age-old turnover battle could really be the difference with a small 4.5 point spread. Add in Nova’s elite free throw shooting and it’s a recipe to pull away late. I expect to see the Wildcat’s best effort. Home court advantage and desperation can be one hell of a combination.
Score Prediction: Villanova 71 – Providence 63
Sniper: I completely agree with ZG’s handicap of this game. This is a must-win for Villanova and they are more than capable of doing so. This is not as bad of a team as their record indicates. The Wildcats are still rated 23rd in the Shot Quality adjusted overall rating. They should win the turnover and free throw battle as ZG suggested above, and I also think that the three point line will be a real difference maker in this game. The Friars come into today’s game 311th in efficient three point shooting. Villanova ranks 44th in the country in open three rate allowed on defense, so the three point makes should be hard to come by for Providence. Conversely, Villanova ranks 15th in 3PT attempt rate and is 35th in three point makes per game even at their slow tempo. This could be purely anecdotal but I feel like the Wildcats always shoot better at the Wells Fargo Center. That is where the game is being played today. I love Nova to put a stop to their losing streak today. I will lay the points. This is my BestBet.
Michigan State +3 : Betting against the Badgers at the Kohl Center is usually not a recipe for success. That is not a secret. Yet, we only see a 3 point spread with a #13 ranked Wisconsin welcoming in an unranked Michigan State. The spread is telling in my opinion. Let’s get into why.
Is Malik Hall back?! I believe Malik Hall is back.
The Spartans are coming off of three consecutive Big 10 wins in which Malik has scored in double figures. He is the X-Factor. The Spartans are 8-3 this season overall when he scores in double figures. The consistency finally seems to be there to expect him to score in double figures every night. Tom Izzo has taken notice. Hall is averaging 32 minutes per game in his last 4 after averaging 24 minutes per game in the 4 games prior. This Spartan team can reach their preseason hype with Hall playing this way.
Wisconsin is 7-1 in the Big 10. A phenomenal start to the season. However, they are surviving a little too dangerously for my liking. Shot Quality has graded them out with losses in 3 out of their last 4 games. With Sparty on the ascension (4 straight SQ wins), I think they can come into the Kohl Center and pull off the upset. Michigan State was a 6 point favorite in East Lansing when these teams met in December. That valuation is more in line with what I believe these teams are. Give me the 3.
Score Prediction:Michigan State 69 – Wisconsin 67
Saint Joe’s 1H +1.5 : I was able to dive deeper into research with the short slate tonight, and uncovered a huge 1H edge in this matchup. Fire and ice in regards to starts to the game in A-10 play for these teams.
Saint Joe’s 1H results in A10 (4-2):
Joe’s 36 – URI 30 (+6)
Joe’s 43 – SLU 33 (+10)
Loyola 39 – Joes 36 (-3)
Joe’s 42 – La Salle 29 (+13)
Joe’s 40 – Duquesne 38 (+2)
UMass 42 – Joe’s 38 (-4)
Bonnies 1H results in A10 (2-4):
Bonnies 44 – VCU 36 (+8)
Richmond 28 – Bonnies 23 (-5)
Fordham 44 – Bonnies 39 (-6)
Bonnies 51 – URI 25 (+26)
George Mason 33 – Bonnies 27 (-6)
Duquesne 22 – Bonnies 15 (-7)
The Hawks are consistently in games in the 1H and are most of the time entering the half with the lead in conference play. Conversely, there have been 4 games for the Bonnies in the A-10 in which they were down 5 or more at the break. Saint Joe’s also had very good starts in their “step-up” games out of conference. They led Villanova by 8 at the break in route to their win over the Wildcats, and were down 3 at Rupp in a game where they took UK to OT. I believe in the guard play of this team and I trust the 1H data that we have uncovered. Give me the 1.5 here.
Score Prediction: 1H Saint Joe’s 35 – St. Bonaventure 33
Cal -2.5: We are trusting Cal to get us home tonight in this future ACC rivalry game (so weird). The Bears are finally healthy and are playing fantastic ball. This is a sleeping Shot Quality giant that may have just woken up..
Cal is 34th (!!!) in the Shot Quality adjusted overall rating. Yes, the Cal Bears. Mark Madsen is a phenomenal coach and he finally has the health to have this team firing on all cylinders. Not many teams can claim a Top 40 offense and defense in the adjusted SQ rating. Shot Quality expects Cal to be at 12-7 this season even with the injuries that they have endured. This is not a team you want to catch right now in conference play.
Also, Jaylon Tyson has turned into an absolute HOOPER in Berkely.
His production is being backed up by Shot Quality analytics. Tyson is currently in the 92nd percentile in the country in shot making. Here is where he ranks elsewhere:
Tyson has the Bears rolling. Cal has won three out of their last five Pac 12 games, including wins over Colorado and Washington State. I am going to trust the data + the hot play and side with them tonight in this rivalry game. This is my Best Bet. Go Bears.
UVA -4: Tony Bennett may just have the Hoos rounding into form. The key to the recent success? Jordan Minor.
How Jordan Minor's emergence as a reliable starting 5 on both ends of the floor helped Virginia basketball to its first ACC winning streak of the year: https://t.co/BacOBH7XMQ
I highly recommend checking out the article above written by Dan Siegel. He illustrates what Minor has brought to the pack line defense of late. His physical presence has also elevated Ryan Dunn on the help side as well in my opinion. Minor has also scored in double figures in the last two. Tony Bennett is being rewarded heavily for the uptick in minutes that he is giving to Minor. Difference maker.
UVA’s 5 losses this season have been absolute stinkers. There is no doubt about it. However, all of these stinkers have come on the road and one neutral site. The Hoos are an impressive 8-2 ATS at home this season and are undefeated straight up. This is even without Jordan Minor having a role in the rotation outside of the most recent home win against the Hokies. John Paul Jones Arena will be the defended tonight.
This number has taken off overnight & this morning. Thankfully we locked in at -4. We should have phenomenal CLV by the time this game tips off. This is my Best Bet. Below is a preview of the SQ Value Finder Tool for this matchup:
Score Prediction:Virginia 70 – NC State 60
Iowa -5 : We suffered a bad beat on the Terps over the weekend. We had a +1.5 ticket in College Park vs Michigan State and lost by a score of 61-59. Jahmir Young’s toe on the line on the final make of the game was the difference in us covering and losing. However, Maryland was quite lucky to be in position to win that game. There are some worrisome characteristics in this team that Iowa can take advantage of.
Jahmir Young was a complete disaster at the end of the first and 2nd half in taking care of the basketball. You cannot give the ball away freely, especially in crunch time. He had 7 turnovers on the day and that was a major factor in Maryland losing the game. They lost the turnover battle to Sparty 18-8. Iowa comes into tonight 5th in the country in turnover rate on offense. Maryland ranks 211th in that stat. I expect another beating in the turnover department for the Terps tonight.
Iowa also has a sizeable advantage from behind the arc tonight. The Hawkeyes are 14th and 27th in Off of the Dribble and Catch & Shoot 3PT play-types on offense. They do a lot of this damage in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They always have under Fran. Maryland flat out cannot shoot. The Terps are 291st in the country in made three pointers per game. This is a major edge in my handicap tonight.
Iowa gets it done tonight behind a BIG 10 home court advantage in Iowa City. Lay the points.
Score Prediction: Iowa 79 – Maryland 70
Alabama -2.5: I am so excited for this game tonight. This will be one of the most electric atmospheres of the 23/24 season. The Tide will roll behind the hostile home court advantage at Coleman.
Alabama comes into tonight’s game 7-2 ATS at home. That is the best home ATS record in the SEC. The Tide are coming off of two wins against South Carolina and Mizzou in which they won by a combined 45 points. This home court advantage is real. It will be turned up even more by the animosity that a game against Auburn brings.
Alabama’s offense is the real deal. They are currently rated the #2 overall offense in the country per the Shot Quality adjusted offensive rating. The Tide also rank Top 10 in PPP for EVERY play-type that SQ monitors:
Auburn is due for major regression on defense (0.94 -> 1.02 in PPP) and I suspect that we will see a lot of that correct itself tonight in Tuscaloosa.
The Tigers have only played three road games this season. They are 2-1 with a loss at Appalachian State. The majority of this hot streak they are on has come at Neville Arena. This is a great spot for Alabama to take advantage. Roll Tide Roll.
Washington State/Stanford under 146.5 (11:00pm ET – Pac12)
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Gonzaga -11.5 & over 155.5 : I love this combo tonight. We have the pace and matchup edges that we need to walk out of Malibu 2-0.
These two faced off two weeks ago at the Kennel. The Zags steamrolled Pepperdine by a score of 86-60. The total in that game closed at 156.5. Pepperdine’s 32.8% shooting from the field + a slower pace near the end of the game in a 30 point blowout were the reasons for this. I believe that Pepperdine has a chance to improve on their scoring tonight. The Waves are 29th in pace and that should be ramped up behind a hype home crowd. A Ryan Nembhard led Gonzaga offense will welcome this pace. I also expect Pepperdine to hit double digit threes tonight in their home gym. The Zags rank 277th in Open 3 rate on defense and Pepperdine is 22nd in efficiency from 3.
Gonzaga is a terrible matchup for Pepperdine defensively. I expect another blowout tonight. Pepperdine is 350th in frequency of shots allowed at the rim and 318th in regards to PPP defending them. The Zags are 22nd in PPP on attacking the rim. That is their bread and butter this year without any real deep threats. Gonzaga was 24/38 inside the three point arc against Pepperdine in the previous affair. Also, Anton Watson is playing the best basketball of his career. He was the lone bright spot in Gonzaga’s loss to Santa Clara last time out. This is a great matchup for him to continue this great run.
Anton Watson just dragging Gonzaga through this game. Goodness he’s been unbelievable
Gonzaga is coming off of a loss with something to prove. I trust them to take advantage of the paint and cover the number tonight. It was set too low. They closed at -20.5 at the Kennel. My Best Bet lies with the over. I believe the Pepperdine pace and three point shooting easily gets us over the total tonight. Let’s get a combo 2-0 winner here.
Score Prediction:Gonzaga 89 – Pepperdine 74
Long Beach State -1.5 : This is the first stop in a Rainbow Warriors’ road trip to Cali. They stumbled in their most recent road trip at Cal Northridge. I suspect another loss is coming tonight.
Hawaii has a very solid defense, but I fear for their frontcourt tonight. The Rainbow Warriors rank 326th in volume of shots allowed attacking the rim per Shot Quality analytics. That is music to Long Beach’s ears. Shot Quality analytics show that the Beach are ranked 32nd in efficiency attacking the rim. Long Beach is also 53rd in the country in drawing opponent personal fouls per possession. There is no depth behind da Silva and McKoy if they were to get in foul trouble. This is a strong edge for LBSU.
Hawaii has struggled on the road in conference play over the years and I am happy to jump in tonight and take the Beach in this spot. The frontcourt will be the difference. We locked in -1.5 last night. I see -3.5’s out there right now. I personally would not play over -3.
Score Prediction: Long Beach State 73 – Hawaii 68
Wazzou/Stanford under 146.5: We were able to snipe the best number on this total today. It had been bet up to 146.5 this AM after opening at 144.5. We locked in at the perfect time. This now sits at 145 at most places from what I am seeing.
Washington State is going to sit on the ball in this game. The Cougars rank 256th in pace this season and do not want Stanford running. A halfcourt game would be phenomenal for our under not only for pace reasons, but these are two of the best teams in the country in defending the halfcourt. Wazzou ranks 16th in SQ PPP allowed in the halfcourt and Stanford comes in at 24th. These two teams are also great at defending the rim. The Cardinal rank 10th in defending shots attacking the rim and Washington State ranks 34th.
All of these reasons lead me to believe we have a perfect recipe for an under tonight at Maples Pavilion. The Shot Quality model agrees with a 143.7 predicted score. Let’s go defense.
Score Prediction: Stanford 71 – Washington State 69
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