Cal Poly 1H under 30.5 (10:00pm – ESPN+) (FanDuel)
San Francisco 1H -12 (10:00pm – ESPN+) (DraftKings)
Ty Johnson over 20.5 points (10:00pm – BTN) (FanDuel)
————————————
Cal Poly 1H under 30.5 : I am in lockstep with the preseason KenPom rating on this Mustangs squad. They have a very solid chance of finishing as a bottom 10 team in Division 1 basketball this year. Cal Poly really only had three guys that could score with any kind of consistency a year ago. With Kobe Sanders and Quentin Jones leaving the program, that only leaves Jarred Hyder. Hyder shot 32.5% from the field a year ago. Woof. This offense is going to be putrid. There was no help in this department via the portal. Unless there are several diamonds in the rough from the freshman ranks, I do not see a competent basketball team.
I also like the potential of the Dons defense this year. KenPom has San Francisco in the Top 100 in preseason defensive rating, and I think they could push to get even closer to a Top 75 group. This is a very tall and lengthy group. Especially with the addition of Carlton Linguard Jr. from UTSA. Another 7’er to add to the mix.
The Mustangs ranked 356th out of 362 teams in the country a season ago in 1H points per game. San Francisco ranked 39th in opponent 1H points per game. I am excited to attack this angle tonight. This is my BestBet.
San Francisco 1H -12: All of the information above leads me to believe that this is a good play as well. The Dons will get a ton of 2nd chance looks early on in this game. The size and physicality is a major edge. Marcus Williams and Malik Thomas are also returning in the backcourt. These guys can score the rock. Give me the Dons early and quick in this one.
Score Prediction:1H San Francisco 42 – Cal Poly 27
Ty Johnson over 20.5 points : Ty Johnson will be challenging for the Division 1 scoring title this season. I would not be stunned to see him in the 18-19 FGA per game range. Jim Les will green light it. Johnson shared the backcourt with Eli Pepper (baller) for the Aggies squad over the last few seasons. They averaged 29.1 FGA between the two of them a season ago. Pepper has graduated and this leaves Johnson will full control of this offense.
Ty flipped the switch late in the year to turn into an even more prolific scorer than he was previously. Here were his averages over the last 10 games:
20.4 ppg
16.7 FGA per game
6.2 FTA per game (99th percentile on free throw attempts per 40 minutes in each of his two seasons at UC Davis)
I am a huge fan of the player, and I am an even bigger fan of what I think his usage will be tonight. Danny Sprinkle played a faster tempo last year at Utah State when he was able to acquire more talent. I think we see another step forward in the tempo department this year at Washington. I see the Huskies controlling the tempo and that should lead to more opportunities for Johnson. Lastly, Johnson only averaged 2.3 fouls per game a season ago. Should have a great chance at 35ish minutes.
Santa Clara -1.5 : First blog of the year. Let’s get it! The Broncos open the season at the Pentagon against Saint Louis as a part of the Field of 68 Showcase. This spread is telling, right?
The “Billi Ball” hysteria is alive and well in Saint Louis. The Billikens were able to persuade Josh Shertz to make the leap from Indiana State to be their next head coach. Shertz has gained tons of fans from around the country with his high powered mid-major offense over the last few seasons. He was also able to bring “Cream Abdul Jabar” (Robbie Avila) and Isaiah Swope with him via the transfer portal. This will be a very popular team in the market from the general public to start the year. Yet, Saint Louis finds themselves as underdogs in their opener. Let’s get into why.
Roster continuity at the mid-major level is something that you really have to pay attention to during this age of the transfer portal. Especially when you know that the group is led by an excellent coach. That is the case here with Herb Sendek. The Broncos are returning 5 out of their top 6 scorers from a season ago. In addition, this group also made up their top three rebounders and assisters. Fun fact about this Broncos group that people forget? They beat THREE tournament teams from a season ago in the non-con. Oregon, Washington State & Duquesne. Santa Clara was also pretty damn good down the stretch in conference play and finished 10-6 in the WCC before ending their season in the conference tournament semifinals to Saint Mary’s. I am trusting that this team will be ready to go again in the non-con and that their continuity gives them the edge in this matchup against a team that has changed so much. Get us going early, Broncos!
Side Note: Robbie Avila will be active for this game, but he has just returned to practice/exhibition play in the last week or so after suffering a “significant lateral ankle sprain”. I am not sure if this will be a factor or not, but something to note.
Score Prediction:Santa Clara 79 – Saint Louis 74
Troy -4.5 : The MAC/Sun Belt challenge is something special. This was one that I had my eye on for the majority of the offseason. Toledo has been a mainstay in the upper echelon of mid-major programs over the past 4 seasons. I am here to say that this will be a *very* down year by their recent standards. This roster is not appealing to me at all. The Rockets will not survive losing Maddox Jr, Moss and Cochran to the portal. The ballhandling and playmaking is a huge concern for me. This leads us into my favorite matchup edge here in this fixture. The Trojans are going to be able to heat this team up without question. Troy was 22nd in the country in forcing turnovers a season ago & the majority of the key defenders are back for the 24/25 season. Troy is favored in this matchup for good reason. This program also has two additional feathers in their cap that we look for. The Trojans were 13th in the country in free throw rate, and 27th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Keep your eye on Myles Rigsby. This was a freshman that I mentioned a ton a season ago. I believe we were one of the first outlets to really take notice of how special he is at this mid-major level. Rigbsy has a chance to be elite as a two-way player this season, and he will be the best player on the court tomorrow.
𝘽𝙪𝙞𝙡𝙩 𝘿𝙞𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩 💪
Myles Rigsby was named to The Bracketeer’s All-American Watch List for the Non-Power Conferences.
Louisville -18.5 : Pat Kelsey, we are coming with you. Flush whatever memories you have of this Cardinals program in recent memory. I have seen firsthand in Charleston just how quickly Pat Kelsey can get things rolling.
This Louisville roster is just insane. I see offensive & defensive balance at every single level. It will be interesting to see how the minutes are distributed early in this season, but simply based on my opinion .. this team could go 12 deep. Not even joking. Morehead State’s roster is on the other end of the spectrum. Riley Minix is off to the Spurs organization, and the Eagles have also lost their other 4 top scorers from a season ago. The transfer portal was not kind to this team. Even with their success from a season ago, the OVC media took notice of this depleted roster and ranked the Eagles 5th in the preseason OVC poll.
We know that a Pat Kelsey team can hit the gas pedal. This should be a Top 20 offense in the country. The exhibitions have also provided examples that this defense could gel quicker than expected.
Louisville's pressure in the defensive backcourt has been outstanding.
Chucky Hepburn and Koren Johnson will do that to you.
Spalding has eight turnovers. Cards with six steals.
I am confident in laying this big of a number in the opener with Louisville due to those reasons.
Score Prediction: Louisville 86 – Morehead State 62
Missouri +5 : Boy, oh boy do I love this one. Missouri will win this game outright. This is my Best Bet.
I have the Missouri Tigers in the “Louisville tier” of a successful rebuild via the transfer portal. This team has MAJOR impact pieces to compete in the SEC this season; coming off of a year where they picked up ZERO conference wins! Dennis Gates was finally the coach that was able to pry Marques Warrick out of Northern Kentucky. He was ready for power conference basketball years ago. His elite ISO scoring will be a much needed addition to the Tigers. I also love what they are getting on the glass & defensively with transfers Mark Mitchell and Josh Gray. These guys are DUDES when attacking for rebounds. Mizzou really had no muscle in the paint a season ago and that was probably the biggest detriment to their team. The Tigers ranked 356th (!!!) in defensive rebounding. They were also 283rd in defending shots attacking the rim per Shot Quality.
Tony Perkins and Jacob Crews will also be monster impact transfers for this team as well. Crews will be relied upon to rebound from the wing, and Perkins will be the lockdown defender. In addition, these guys obviously bring a needed punch offensively to this team. I am excited to see Crews and Caleb Grill let it fly from three this season. Grill is returning from injury this season and already looks as good as he ever has from behind the arc.
I don’t love the roster construction from Penny at Memphis this season. I watched the entirety of their exhibition against UNC and I did not come away impressed at all. I see the ball “sticking” quite often in the flow of the offense. I also see a heavy dose of turnovers. Tony Perkins will be feasting on this for Mizzou. Memphis is also dealing with the same old shit that we are accustomed to. NIL drama, rumors of guys unenrolling and hitting the portal, etc. They should not be laying 5, even in a true home game, to this revamped Mizzou squad. Missouri is the better team and has the better coach. Tigers outright.
Not only is this a Best Bet for me, but this is also a play for Max Barr (@MaxBarrCBB). Max is an SEC-centric college basketball guru. I trust him heavily when it comes to this league, so it was great to see that we are on the same page. Here are his thoughts on the matchup!
“REVENGE. Memphis beat Missouri 70-55 in Columbia last year. Combine that with Missouri going winless in SEC play and you best believe Dennis Gates has been waiting for this one. You’ll be hard pressed to find a coach more hungry for a win than Gates.
DEPTH. Rare scenario where one teams’ rotation might be bigger than the oppositions’ available roster. Missouri is two deep, in some places three deep, at every position. Dain Dainja will cause defenses issues this year but not Missouri. Mizzou has seven players 6’8 or taller (Josh Gray 7’ 265lb, Peyton Marshall 7’ 300lb). Both size & depth heavily in favor of MIZ.”
Score Prediction: Mizzou 79 – Memphis 72
Arkansas State -5.5 : For the sake of time, I am not going to dive deep into this one. The reason why? This is almost an identical handicap to the Troy play. I have belief in a Sun Belt team with quality roster continuity to take down a MAC team that has been completely depleted from their recent success.
Arkansas State is a team that I believe heavily in. They were featured in my preseason blog as one of the teams I expect to finish way higher than their current KenPom preseason rating. I expect the Red Wolves to win the Sun Belt this year. Lastly, this was a very hard place to play a season ago. Bryan Hodgson has this fan base fired up. It should be a great opening day atmosphere to help our handicap.
Arkansas State will be one of the best mid-major teams in the country this season.
They have the perfect mix of everything.
Double-digit scoring returners, all-league transfers, all-league transfers from their own league, stud freshmen.
Texas/Ohio State under 146.5 : I don’t like to take a ton of totals in the first week of the season because the hard metrics really drive my angles on them. However, I believe this has a real chance to be a low scoring game based on roster construction.
I don’t see this being a very good year for either program quite frankly. Where is the offensive identity going to come from for Texas? Kaluma, Pope and Mark are all ball dominant players in my opinion. I do not see sexy ball movement coming from this team. It will be a lot of ISO ball. I think that factor lends itself to a struggle out of the gates. I have similar worries about the Ohio State offense. Meechie Johnson is the epitome of a ball dominant guard. He was a major reason why South Carolina’s tempo was so low a season ago. Bruce Thornton already tries to dribble the ball through the ground, so I think this offense could struggle to find cohesion as well. Don’t get me wrong, Thornton is an excellent facilitator. I am not taking away anything from that. But he does appreciate a dribble haha.
Both teams also have really good defenders at their disposal. Shedrick and Weaver are excellent in that department for the Longhorns. We are also hearing that Tre Johnson could quickly develop into a great defender.
Last week Chendall Weaver said what most surprised him on Tre Johnson’s game was his defense. Here’s Coach Rodney Terry on Johnson’s defense.
Aaron Bradshaw and Sean Stewart should turn into excellent defenders for the Buckeyes after getting a minutes boost from their previous situations. I am smelling an under from a mile away on this one. Hopefully, we don’t get a first game of the season boost in adrenaline and send this pace over where we need it to be!
Score Prediction: Texas 71 – Ohio State 69
Towson +11.5 : This was dangerously close to a Best Bet. The Tigers are going to be very competitive in this game. Outside shot at the upset.
Towson is one of the better mid-major programs over the past few years that you haven’t heard about. They have been overshadowed by Pat Kelsey at CofC in the CAA, but this is a program that is coming off of three straight 20 win seasons. The Tigers are returning every contributor from a season ago outside of Charles Thompson Jr. They believe they had addressed his departure with Abdou Samb via the portal. I am excited to see this team run it back and I believe they have a serious chance to go dancing out of the CAA.
I am very familiar with Towson due to my ties with the Charleston program. Pat Kelsey thinks as highly of Pat Skerry as any coach in America. It is warranted. This team FIGHTS. The Tigers were 2nd (!!!) in the country in offensive rebounding percentage a season ago. They are physical for 40 minutes. That is something that I frankly saw this current edition of Saint Mary’s struggle with a season ago. Especially when Joshua Jefferson went down. With Jefferson transferring out to Iowa State and seemingly nobody on the roster to replace that role, I see the physicality of Towson being a huge advantage.
The Saint Mary’s offense is going to struggle mightily this season with the loss of Aidan Mahaney to UConn. His departure (in addition to Jefferson’s) was not addressed in the transfer portal. This is starting to feel like a Tony Bennett situation in Charlottesville. It is a slower burn in the WCC because Randy is such a good coach, but ignoring the portal is just not something that you can do in this day and age.
Saint Mary’s likely squeaks this one out, but this is a disaster opening day matchup for the Gaels.
As lame as it sounds, LFG just keeps ringing through my head. College basketball is back in our lives ONE WEEK from today! This will be my fifth year running this Twitter/X account & blog. So damn crazy to think about. What a ride it has been! Winning bets with all of you is a high that I just can’t get enough of. The best part about our little community? We haven’t clout farmed. Every single follow was gained organically & I love that. The interaction that we have through Twitter, DM’s and texts is way better than chasing monster follower numbers that gain no interaction. I appreciate all of you. Especially the ones that come and check out the blog on a regular basis.
Important – Please Read:
Let’s go ahead and get this out of the way and then we can get to the futures! I can’t lie guys.. I have toyed around with the idea of rolling out a paid subscription wall for my content. I was very close to making that call. The reasoning for that is this takes a lot of effort and time. Like, a lot. I also believe that I have separated myself from the large majority of the college basketball gambling community that does charge for picks. It would also make sense for me to do financially. However, I have decided to keep everything free for this season. It is the right call. I want all of y’all included in this run we are going to go on this season! I am going to start including a CashApp account (or something similar to that) at the end of every blog when the season gets rolling. My hope is that you guys can use this to thank me whenever you see fit. By NO means is this a requirement. Any contributions throughout the season will be greatly appreciated. Hopefully this idea allows us to keep everything free moving forward into future seasons. Alright. Enough of this boring shit. Let’s get into how we are going to dominate this game for a 5th year in a row!
Futures:
National Title Winners:
We are going with a four team portfolio this year. The first two tickets that we are going to ride with are our “title teams”. These teams will be Houston and Gonzaga. Additionally, we are going to take prices on two teams that I believe are criminally mispriced in the market. Those will be Florida and Xavier. The goal for the UF and Xavier plays will be to gain massive value on our tickets throughout the season and then look at hedging opportunities to make cash come tournament time. I will keep you posted later in the year when we get to that point!
Houston +1500 (DK):
Inject this attitude into my veins:
Kelvin Sampson made sure the University of Houston practiced before jetting out to Kansas City for Big 12 Basketball Media Day so UH player reps LJ Cryer, J'Wan Roberts and Emanuel Sharp wouldn't miss even one day of practice. That's staying true to Sampson culture.
The Houston Cougars have one goal in mind. That is cutting the nets down on the final Monday of the season. They are my pick to do so. Make no mistake about it, this is the number 1 team in the country. No matter what the polls say. They are properly priced at some of the books out there, but Draft Kings hanging out a 15/1 number is a massive mistake. A lot of people picked Houston to slide in their first year of power conference basketball a season ago. Quite the opposite happened. Houston finished the season ranked 2nd in KenPom and ran away with the Big 12 regular season title. The injury bug bit this team down the stretch, but that is just another motivational tool that Sampson will use to fire his guys up for this year. The Cougars are returning a very hungry and veteran heavy roster. Jamal Shead will be a massive loss. No doubt. But the Cougars return every other contributor from their dominant run from a year ago. This includes the return from injury for big Jojo Tugler. Tugler is one of the best rim protectors in the country and he was sorely missed at the end of last season with J’Wan Roberts dealing with injuries of his own. With the addition of Milos Uzan (OU transfer) to replace Shead, I believe this Houston team is in great shape to finish as the #1 defense in the country. Leading scorer, LJ Cryer, is entering his 5th season of college basketball. This guy just wins. Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp will keep this Houston offense in the top tier of the game. The Cougars finished 19th in offensive efficiency a year ago, and I think they have a chance to improve on that this season with the addition of Uzan. Let’s get a little mud in our blood. Houston is our title pick.
Gonzaga +2000 (FanDuel):
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are national title good this season. I don’t have them rated quite as highly as Houston, but at 20/1 .. we will gladly add this to our portfolio. This team got hottttt at the end of last season. They finally started to gel with all of the new pieces that Few brought into the fold. Unfortunately, the Zags ran into Zach Edey in the Sweet 16 and their season came to an end prematurely. The momentum from that run is going to propel this team in to a big big season. The Gonzaga frontcourt is going to be stout this year. Ike, Huff and Gregg are all returning. I also love the potential of freshman, Ismaila Diagne. This is a 7’er with Grade A rim protection abilities. He is a player that has exceled at Real Madrid overseas and I can’t wait to see if Few puts his trust in him to provide defensive depth this year.
🇸🇳 Ismaila Diagne – Diagne excelled in his role as a rebounder, shot-blocker, and play finisher. He dominated the glass with his 7 foot size. He excelled offensively as the pick-and-roll roll man, and showed ability to self-create looks from the post. pic.twitter.com/fwri4VGoYH
Mark Few will also add ISO scorers Khalif Battle (Arkansas) & Michael Ajayi (Pepperdine) into the rotation. They will fall in line in the backcourt behind veterans, Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman. Nembhard will be one of the best point guards in the country this season. I guarantee that. The sky is the limit for this team. Especially in a WCC with a weakened Saint Mary’s. I don’t see how Gonzaga could possibly fall below the 2 line. They have a very good chance at a 1 seed if they are able to handle business in the non-con. 20/1, gimmie.
Florida +6000 (DK &FD):
What is this number? Seriously. The books have this team priced with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan State, BYU, etc. Come on now. I firmly believe this Gators team will be challenging for an SEC regular season title. This team is DEEEEEEP in the frontcourt. It is probably my favorite frontcourt in the country from a depth perspective. Alex Condon was big time for this team a season ago as a freshman. I am fully expecting him to compete to make an All-SEC team in the 24/25 season. The Gators are also returning Thomas Haugh. * I have updated this section to remove Handlogten. Florida has publicly stated that this will be a full redshirt year for him, but I am hearing otherwise from a source close to the situation. “Don’t be surprised if he suits up near the end of the SEC season depending on how the season goes”. * You would feel pretty good about entering a season with this Condon and Haugh, but Todd Golden has bolstered this position group even more in the portal. The Gators now have Sam Alexis (Chattanooga) and Rueben Chinyelu (Wazzou) in the fold. Alexis nearly averaged a double-double a season ago, and Chinyelu is having a monster preseason by all accounts. He shined in the most recent scrimmage against FIU. The Gators will be able to pair this fabulous frontcourt with one of the best backcourt trios in the country. Walter Clayton Jr. is that DUDE. I would have him in the Mark Sears and RJ Davis tier in regards to scoring the basketball. Here are his percentile ranks entering the 24/25 season per EvanMiya.com: Free Throws – 99th ; Scoring – 98th ; 3PT Shooting – 97th ; Offensive Impact – 94th ; Steals – 88th. We all remember his nuclear performance against Colorado in the tournament. There is more where that came from for this upcoming season. The Gators are also bringing in dynamic FAU transfer, Alijah Martin. He was a vital piece in the extended Cinderella run that we saw in Boca Raton. Interchanging with Martin and Will Richard between the 2 and the wing will be a great advantage for Golden. I also believe that all of these newcomers will help Golden get this defense to where he wants it to be. Last quick note: Keep your eye on reserve guard, Urban Klavzar. Klavzar was a late summer addition to the Gators roster. He is an international player that has played in many major European tournaments already. He will be an incredible depth piece as he gets accustomed to the college game.
ESPN has named a #Gators guard a top-10 international newcomer for the 2024-25 season.
"(He) is already making an impression with his scoring."
This team is dangerous. Very, very dangerous. Jump on the bandwagon now. We are going to have a fun ride with this team. Sean Miller absolutely crushed the transfer portal. Especially in the backcourt. Ryan Conwell (Indiana State – 16.6 ppg), Marcus Foster (Furman – 17.0 ppg), and Dante Maddox Jr. (Toledo – 15.6 ppg) are bringing massive firepower to this Musketeer offense. These guys are also winning players. Foster and Maddox Jr. have made the NCAA Tournament as mid-major players, and Ryan Conwell was probably robbed of that opportunity by the committee a season ago. However, he took that personally and was dominant in a Sycamore run to the NIT Championship game. I believe that this group will gel really well together. They are also pairing up with returners Dayvion McKnight, Tre Green, and Dailyn Swain. McKnight was 2nd in the Big East a season ago in assist/turnover ratio. He is entering his 5th year of college basketball and will be a great facilitator for this group. Tre Green may get buried in this depth chart, but he is a very capable ballhandler if he gets called upon. I also believe that Dailyn Swain has the opportunity to take the jump into being a big time defender this season. That should help keep him on the floor a bit. Another transfer guard, Roddie Anderson III, will be able to help in the defensive department as well after coming from the Leon Rice school of defense. There is A LOT to be excited about with this group.
Heeeeee’sss Baaaaaacckkkk. The return of Zach Freemantle cannot be understated. This is one of my favorite bigs in the country. His ability to finish around the rim and stretch the floor at his size is so lethal in the college game. He looked healthy and ready to hit the ground running this season in X’s scrimmage against Dayton.
Freemantle’s partner in crime, Jerome Hunter, is also healthy and back from injury. Keeping these guys off of the injury report will be massive to the success of our ticket, but at 75/1 I am going to take the chance of Xavier having a monster season with a great coach at the helm.
Conference Title Tickets:
A-10: Dayton +350 (Draft Kings)
VCU is getting all of the preseason love in this conference. However, I just simply like the Flyers’ roster better. Also, Anthony Grant has a massive edge in the coaching department IMO. Give me the Flyers at this number.
ACC: Duke +135(Fan Duel)
The Blue Devils will be the class of the conference this season. I expect the Tar Heels to take a slide back this year with the losses of Armando Bacot, Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan. North Carolina will be the only challenge to the regular season title for Duke. These are the only two teams even ranked in the preseason AP poll from the ACC. A +140 ticket is not the most “fun” thing to have your money tied up in for months and months, but I believe that this will be a slam dunk hit for us.
American: No Play
Memphis more than likely wins the conference, but I want no part of my money being tied up with that group.
Big 10: Oregon +1500 (Draft Kings)
This may be perceived as a value play with Purdue being the favorite again in this conference, but I believe the Ducks have a legitimate chance to win this league as a debutant. The most important aspect surrounding this year’s Oregon team? A full bill of health. Dana Altman has been piecing things together the last few years due to terrible injury luck. The Ducks are seemingly ready to hit the ground running this season.
“The Oregon Ducks have a healthy roster for the first time in three seasons. Besides a minor injury with Georgetown transfer Supreme Cook (no timetable has been announced but it doesn’t seem serious), Oregon’s head coach Dana Altman believes the Ducks will be able to play at full strength and try to go back to a fast-paced offensive style.
“We are going to go back to the way we have traditionally played… This team will look or try to play the style as our teams in 2021 and before… I feel very comfortable with this group in playing the way we used to play.””
There will be a massive jump for Jackson Sheltad in his sophomore season. I think he could be one of the better two-way players in the country. Altman acquired some much needed backcourt help with Moss and Bamba through the portal. The reserves behind this group of three are a complete wild card, but I expect that group to eat massive minutes. The frontcourt of Oregon has a chance to be really special. Angel, Bittle, both Cook’s, Evans Jr, etc should all be major contributors. Every guy listed brings a little something different to the team. Interchanging these guys based on scheme from game to game is going to be a massive advantage. Dana Altman masterclass on the way.
Big 12: Houston +280 (Draft Kings)
The best team in the country as mentioned above. Gladly will take this play with Kansas being dubbed the favorite.
Big East: Xavier +1000 (Draft Kings)
Taking a shot with our Muskies as mentioned above. UConn (while still good AF) will be down from their recent standards. Maybe this will leave a door cracked for a Cinderella title winner.
SEC: Florida +2700 (Fan Duel)
This is a value play. The top of the SEC is stacked. It is going to be a war all year long. I do believe that Florida is closer to the top than where they are being priced though. Let’s take stab with the Gators here at 27/1.
WCC: No Play
If you have the wealth to lay -250 with Gonzaga and make it worthwhile + have that money sitting out there in the cloud for months .. then more power to you. It is just not worth it for me and I am not in the business of handing out -250 bets haha However, the Zags undoubtedly win this conference.
Wooden Award Future:
Tucker DeVries +18000 (Fan Duel):
You guys want to have a little fun? Let’s add a 180/1 ticket to our portfolio! (please bet responsibly)
Fan Duel. What are you doing here? For comparison, Draft Kings has DeVries priced at +8000. I gladly will jump on this value. This is the definition of a flier bet. This award will likely be given to a player of the likes of RJ Davis, Hunter Dickinson, Mark Sears, Cooper Flagg, etc. These players are incredible and will be on much better teams. Do I think that DeVries has a chance to statistically force himself into at least a conversation? Yes, I do.
DeVries has transferred to West Virginia this season to follow his father from Drake. I am fully expecting him to adapt to power conference basketball very quickly in Morgantown.
Leading scorers against Quad 1 opponents among the field:
DeVries led the country in scoring against Quad 1 opponents a season ago entering the tournament. Yes, the opportunities were limited.. but it goes to show that he does not hide when the competition ramps up. Tucker was also the only player in Division 1 basketball last year to average 20 pts / 6 reb / 3 ast for the season (21.6/ 6.7/ 3.7). This was a major factor in my USBWA vote for Tucker to be an All-American. DeVries is also an underrated defender and recorded 1.6 steals per game. His contributions in all of these categories have continued to rise year over year during his time in Des Moines. I do not expect this to stop this season. Yes, he is transferring to a major conference program, but the surrounding cast is not something that will blow you away. He will concede some shots and opportunities to Javon Small, but I believe that Tucker’s usage (99th percentile per Evan Miya) will continue to be through the roof this season. If he records something close to 23/8/4/2 in the Big 12 this season, then I believe he will be firmly in the conversation for this award. At 180/1, just get us in the conversation.
Higher or Lower: Ken Pom Edition
This is the section that we will be paying attention to the most at the beginning of the year. The books tend to heavily marry their spreads with KenPom ratings to start the season until they start compiling on the court data for their algorithms. If you can correctly spot flawed ratings in the preseason KenPom, then you are in a good spot to attack early. Here are some teams that I expect to finish significantly higher or lower than their current KenPom preseason ratings.
Higher:
Gonzaga – Current ranking – 9th. I have them in my Top 5
Florida – Current ranking – 28th. I have them in my Top 20
Indiana – Current ranking – 39th. I have them in my Top 30
Kentucky – Current ranking -42nd. I have them in my Top 30
Louisville – Current ranking – 64th. I have them in my Top 40
High Point – Current Ranking – 108th. I have them in my Top 60 ** Biggest discrepancy I have from a higher perspective. One of my favorite mid-majors this season. This will be a tournament team out of the Big South.
Arkansas State – Current Ranking – 121st. I have them in my Top 90. I like the Red Wolves to win the Sun Belt.
Lower:
Auburn – Current Ranking – 3rd. I have them outside of my Top 10
Texas – Current Ranking – 18th. I have them outside of my Top 30
Illinois – Current Ranking – 23rd. I have them outside of my Top 40
Ohio State – Current Ranking – 31st. I have them outside of my Top 40
VCU – Current Ranking – 41st. I have them outside of my Top 60
Boise State – Current Ranking – 45th. I have them outside of my Top 70
A big thank you if you have made it this far. This preview took some time and I hope you enjoy it. The season kicks off next Monday at Noon with our Cougs, and ends with a heavyweight fight between Gonzaga and Baylor. CAN’T. WAIT.
Purdue TT over 77.5 : The Boilermaker offense is absolutely humming. The Zach Edey led offense is averaging 84 ppg in the this year’s tournament. This includes a 72 point performance against a Tennessee defensive unit that was playing as well as anyone in the country. It starts with the big man. There is simply no answer for Edey at this point in his career. His knowledge of the game (and the way it is called – pour one out again for the Vols) has risen to an even higher level than we have seen from him before. He is putting on one of the most impressive individual performances we have ever seen in March Madness. We all have to respect it. His ability to score and facilitate (will get into this later) in this game will be the reason why Purdue clears this total.
Purdue’s style will translate just fine to a football stadium backdrop. They do not have to rely on the three ball. I don’t see many answers in this NC State team defensively for Purdue. I will attack this angle instead of worrying about laying points even though I lean Purdue as the favorite as well.
Score Prediction:Purdue 82 points
Alabama 1H under 35.5 : I wanted exposure to this ferocious UConn defense tonight. This is the best angle to attack in my opinion. The Huskies are only allowing 22.8 ppg in the 1H in this tournament. 22.8!!! (wtf). Dan Hurley has his guys taking pride in coming out and completely putting a stranglehold on their opponent. I believe they do so again today.
Alabama is 3rd in the country in Rim & 3 rate per ShotQuality. Nate Oats ensures that his guys are either getting shots at the rim or getting off a three point attempt. Spoiler Alert! They will not be getting many shots at the rim tonight.
Illinois shot 3/25 from inside the arc (12%) in Donovan Clingan's 22 minutes, going 0-for-19 when challenging him directly, according to @ESPNStatsInfo. He changed the game with his 7'7 wingspan and incredible timing as a rim-protector, while also moving well on the perimeter. https://t.co/beCuzDGXWQpic.twitter.com/x6COOumfD9
The Donovan Clingan rim protection cannot be overstated. The Illini were 0-19 on shots challenging Clingan in the Elite 8 domination by the Huskies. I expect the Tide to rely heavily on the three point line due to this. That is not always a recipe for success in Final Fours. We have seen the shooting backdrop of football stadiums create real problems for jump shooting reliant teams. This is especially true in first halves. Also, I am daring Jarin Stevenson to shoot early threes if I am Danny Hurley. Stevenson was barely a 30% three point shooter coming into the Tide’s game against Clemson where he made 5 three pointers. I would live with letting him try to be the one to beat you from deep early.
This is my favorite play of the night and a Best Bet. The UConn defense continues to stand on business in this one.
Score Prediction: Alabama 31 points
Zach Edey over 2.5 assists : This is going to be a big facilitation night for Edey in my opinion. NC State has no answer on the roster for what Edey brings offensively. They are going to have to send helpless doubles (and triples) all game long. This will allow Edey to either going to kick to Jones, Loyer or Smith for threes … dish wrap-arounds to Kaufman-Renn .. or find Gillis or Heide on cuts to the rim. Edey has recorded 3 assists or more 14 times this season. I think this is a great matchup to take a shot at plus money.
Score Prediction: Zach Edey 3 assists
DJ Burns Jr under 13.5 points : This is probably the biggest downer bet I have placed this season. Going into a game rooting for DJ Burns Jr. not to score is not a great feeling. However, I believe it is necessary tonight. The mixture of Edey, Kaufman-Renn and Gillis is going to be a massive problem for DJ tonight. They all have the quickness and physicality to bang with him when he wants to get physical. The Boilermakers are also insanely disciplined in their interior defense. There won’t be many opportunities at the line in this one for Burns. I also fear for him defensively. Foul trouble seems like a real possibility tonight. The spike in performance has DJ’s number this high, but we are really just betting on him to score his season average or less. That seems like a good bet.
Score Prediction: DJ Burns 12 points
Mark Sears over 2.5 threes : This is my favorite prop of the night and another Best Bet. As I discussed earlier, I believe that there will be a heavy volume of three point attempts from the Tide tonight. Especially from Mr. Sears. He is averaging 4.3 makes on 9.5 attempts from distance in this tournament. I believe we see the same (if not more) volume tonight from Sears. I am trusting the All-American to knock down at least three of them. Sears is probably to only Alabama player I trust tonight.
Score Prediction: Mark Sears 4 threes
Tristen Newton under 16.5 points : Trust me. I believe Newton could score 20+ tonight if he wanted to. This is a great matchup for him offensively. However, I believe he will find more joy facilitating tonight. Newton is one of the best passers in the country, and I believe it will be easy for him to drive and find open teammates all night long against the suspect Alabama defense. The points will be spread around evenly through the Huskies roster tonight in my opinion. I think Newton stays under the 16.5.
Marquette -6.5 &Marquette TT over 78.5 (7:09pm – CBS)
Gonzaga +5.5 (7:39pm – TBS)
Duke/Houston 1H under 63 (9:39pm – CBS)
Tennessee -2.5 (10:09pm – TBS)
(Lines may change a tad while I am writing this blog. Don’t kill me if they do! Posting what I played)
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Clemson +7 : We are 2-0 ATS with the Tigers in this tournament and we aren’t stopping now! Chase Hunter is absolutely cooking. Hard to argue with what PJ Hall said in this interview:
“This is what I came here for.” #Clemson center PJ Hall reacts to the sweet sixteen berth.
He also says Chase Hunter is playing like the best two way guard in the country: 👇🏻👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/9FLOtQXt9t
Not only has Hunter scored 20+ points in the opening two rounds, but he is also facilitating better than he has all year. Chase recorded 6 assists in BOTH of these games. The defense has been phenomenal as well. He completely had Jamal Mashburn Jr. in his pocket in the opening round, and then created a ton of havoc for the Baylor backcourt in the R32. The Tigers are playing with two elite players at the moment and the rest of the cast is doing a phenomenal job of filling in the gaps. This team is dangerous.
I like this matchup for Clemson against Arizona. Here are some of the Tiger strengths per Shot Quality:
The post-up stat is intriguing after you take a deep dive into Arizona’s profile. Arizona is 282nd in the country in SQ PPP allowed in post-up scenarios. This will be a juicy way for Clemson to attack the Wildcat defense with Hall, Clark, and Schieffelin. DaRon Holmes showed us some of these cracks in the post-up defense as well. Arizona is also 190th in the country in Open 3 rate allowed on defense. Clemson’s profile of being the 13th most efficient 3PT shooting team + the 14th best spacing team will lead to some huge momentum threes in this matchup.
Arizona is a great team that have matchup edges as well. They will likely win this game. I just feel like Clemson has enough of a punch to keep us within this number here. Give us the points. This is my Best Bet for Thursday.
Score Prediction:Arizona 78 – Clemson 74
SDSU/UConn under 136 : It is truly amazing how good this UConn defense is. The Huskies are coming off of 2023 championship where they only allowed 59.2 ppg in the tournament. Don’t look now … but the defense might even be better this year. The Huskies are currently rated #1 in the SQ adjDEF rating. UConn only allowed 57 points to Marquette in the Big East Championship. They followed up that impressive performance by only allowing 56 PPG in the first two rounds of this year’s tournament. The defensive gameplan and execution against Northwestern was so impressive. The 58 point total was not a fluke. The ShotQuality score actually shows that Northwestern should have only scored 55 points. Donovan Clingan is actually not fair:
Donovan Clingan had one of the best defensive performances we've seen all season helping UConn advance to the Sweet 16. Put a lid on the rim with 14 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 blocks. pic.twitter.com/DBs4BVrJqP
San Diego State can also defend their asses off. The Aztecs are 9th in the KenPom adjusted defensive rating. This will be the best defensive team that the Huskies have faced all year long. This is also a rematch of the national title game from a year ago & should provide some extra defensive intensity for both units. Pace should also be in our favor here. It may shock you, but UConn is only 315th in the country in adjusted tempo. Brian Dutcher will also implement an offensive gameplan to keep this to a low possession game. That is the best way to not allow the UConn talent advantage takeover.
San Diego State may keep this one close for a while, but the Huskies are inevitable. I like UConn to win by double digits while keeping us under this total.
Score Prediction: UConn 71 – San Diego State 61
UNC -3.5 (FanDuel) : Alabama was extremely lucky to defeat Grand Canyon and make it to the Sweet 16. Even with the 10-0 run to end the game, the ShotQuality score only showed that they should have won that game by 4 points (89-85). It was very sloppy and the only player that was playing efficiently was Mark Sears. That won’t cut it against the Heels. The defensive edge for North Carolina in this matchup is too much to overcome.
The Hubert Davis doubters have to admit it at this point. He has developed an elite defense in Year 3. The Tar Heels rank 6th in the adjusted defensive efficiency rating on KenPom, and ShotQuality has them at 7th in their adjDEF rating. The Crimson Tide rank 101st and 80th in those same ratings. The edge that Alabama normally has on the offensive end is negated in this matchup because North Carolina is just as good on that end of the court. Grand Canyon exploited Alabama’s glaring weakness on the defensive glass. The Tide are 340th (!!!) in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. The Lopes were able to take advantage of this and grab 15 offensive rebounds. The Heels are 56th in the country in grabbing offensive rebounds and should be able to deliver close to the same amount of damage in that regard.
Latrell Wrightsell (head injury) will be available for #Alabama's Sweet 16 matchup with North Carolina.
"He's had some real bad luck here lately. But we're gonna be playing again, and he can play with us again on Thursday."
Alabama is also entering this matchup a little bit banged up. It appears that Oats is claiming that Wrightsell will be available for this game. I guess we have to take him at his word, but Wrightsell has been in and out of this lineup so many times this year. I am not sure that you can count on this.
North Carolina is the better team here. The defensive edge will help them win this one down the stretch. I am laying the points.
Score Prediction: North Carolina 87 – Alabama 80
Illinois +2 : This is a major contrast in styles. One of the best offenses in the country vs one of the best defenses in the country. I am siding with the offense and Mr. Terrence Shannon Jr. in this one.
Iowa State gets a lot of their offense from turnovers that lead to transition buckets. Illinois does not force a ton of turnovers, but when they do it is almost always an automatic bucket the other way:
The Illini will get downhill no matter the situation. It doesn’t have to be a turnover. They can beat you like this on a missed or made shot as well. Illinois sits at 17th in the country in SQ PPP in transition, and Iowa State is 32nd. I think if Illinois can beat Iowa State at their own game in transition, then their vastly better halfcourt offense will be the difference maker in this game.
The ShotQuality model agrees heavily with my sentiment. The Illinois defense isn’t as bad as most are saying. They are 55th in the SQ adjDEF rating. They will do enough to get Illinois the win here. I will always ride with Terrence Shannon Jr. in a close game in a tournament setting. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: Illinois 74 – Iowa State 71
Marquette -6.5 and TT over 78.5 : This is going to be the snoozer of the Sweet 16, folks. I am expecting a full on blitzing by the Golden Eagles.
Oso Ighodaro is a big reason why Marquette will win this going away.
Marquette has a real versatility advantage on offense with Eddie Lampkin guarding Oso Ighodaro.
Oso will do similar things to DJ Burns Jr. as he did to Eddie Lampkin yesterday. He is too quick and athletic for a defender of this build to stay in front. I think Ighodaro also has an edge on Diarra if he were to guard him as well. Oso can pull Diarra away from the basket and that will leave driving opportunities for Kolek and Jones. This is a lose-lose situation for the Wolfpack defensively.
Tyler Kolek is healthy. That is an understatement. Kolek may be my player of the tournament to this point.
Pick and roll clinic by Tyler Kolek helping Marquette advance to the Sweet 16 with a win over Colorado. Got anywhere he wanted on the floor, finishing skillfully and delivering phenomenal passes. 21 points, 11 assists, 5 rebounds for the projected first round pick. pic.twitter.com/agPWRwUgtt
I don’t see any way for NC State to keep up with what Kolek & Ighodaro will do to them offensively. The Golden Eagles have a point to prove, and I think they do it in a big way in this game. Marquette -6.5 is my Best Bet for Friday & and I will also be taking the TT over 78.5.
Score Prediction: Marquette 84 – NC State 70
Gonzaga +5.5 : I have a feeling this is going to be a lot closer than the market indicates. This is a rematch of a Maui Invitational game. The Boilermakers were able to win that game by 10 points. Things are a lot different now. Most notably? Mark Few’s decision to give a starting role & minutes to Ben Gregg instead of Dusty Stromer.
Mark Few on Portland native Ben Gregg:
"How about Ben? Ben's really hurting. His ankle is bothering him… Look at his line… Just all on straight hustle and guts. He's mister Zag. He grew up watching this program and it was his dream to play here and he plays like it. This… pic.twitter.com/xTJVn4DFB0
The Zags are 16-2 since making that switch. Mark Few says it all in the interview above. Gregg is the heart and soul of this team and they are better when he is on the court.
Gonzaga is not hurting for bodies to compete with Edey in the post & on the glass. Watson, Ike, Huff and Gregg are all capable of switching off duties to ensure nobody gets into serious foul trouble. Even without Gregg in a starting role, the Zags were still able to outrebound Purdue on the offensive glass 13 to 8 in the previous meeting. I like their chances to *limit* the damage from Edey in comparison to what he did to Utah State.
We also need to talk about Ryan Nembhard. He is averaging 10.8 assists in his last 5 games. This play creation will be needed in a big time game like this.
Here are Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman and Ben Gregg on Ryan setting the program record for assists in a season. Nolan: “He’s the GOAT” Ben: “I bet Andrew is a little jealous right now” pic.twitter.com/9x20tfYQzV
I think this game comes down to the final possession & that Purdue is barely able to survive and advance. I would not be stunned to see Gonzaga pull the upset. Predicting a nailbiter and maybe even an extra frame for all of you sickos who love crazy props (I do not recommend!).
Score Prediction: Purdue 78 – Gonzaga 77
Duke/Houston 1H under 63 : Both of these teams are coming off of a ton of points scored in the Round of 32. Duke was able to get this done by hitting 14 threes combined a snowball of momentum that starting rolling from the opening tip against JMU. Houston got there a bit differently. The Cougars got into an up & down “Who can drive to the basket the fastest?” contest with A&M. The foul trouble and free throws that they allowed almost got them bounced from the tournament way sooner than expected.
Houston’s mistakes in the Texas A&M game lead me to believe they will try to get back to a “slow it down” halfcourt pace. The Cougars rank 346th in the country in adjusted tempo. That will be just fine with Duke. They prefer to play in the halfcourt as well and their adjusted tempo number is 245th. I also think that both offenses may experience a bit of culture shock in playing one another after how easy they found it to score in the last round. These defenses are ELITE. Houston ranks 2nd in SQ and KenPom in defensive efficiency, and Duke ranks 9th and 18th.
I believe that we see a slow start out of the gate in this one. Give us the 1H under.
Score Prediction: Houston 30 – Duke 29
Tennessee -2.5: This was very close to a Best Bet. We placed a +1800 ticket on the Vols to be our national champion when the bracket was announced. I still am in love with our ticket. This team is for real.
Let’s talk about Dalton Knecht. I really enjoyed Mark Titus’ breakdown of what Knecht means to Tennessee’s tournament run.
This point is so important. Especially with an opponent like Creighton. The Jays have Alexander and Scheierman that they know they can count on in these moments. Tennessee would likely lose a game like this in previous years. Knecht fills a major gap in what will bring Tennessee from a successful program that never gets it done, to a team that can compete to win the whole thing.
The Volunteer defense continues to be elite. The Vols are 3rd in the KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency rating. That is how they will win this game. Creighton would have to destroy Tennessee from the three point line to win this game, and I just don’t see it. The Vols are rated 2nd in the country in Open 3 Rate defensively per ShotQuality. They aggressively contest these attempts. Creighton struggled with the physicality of Dante and Couisnard in the Oregon game, and were very lucky to make it out alive to the Sweet 16. Tennessee has the depth to enforce the same physicality and be relentless until the final whistle.
Michigan State -6.5 : Will try to keep this article short and concise since we have a lengthy card. This game is being played in Minneapolis and this has a lot of the public jazzed up to back one of the best ATS darlings of the season. However, the Gophers are on a downward spiral. Minnesota is 1-4 straight up and ATS in their last 5. There are rumors circling about Dawson Garcia courting NIL offers behind the scenes. Could this be the reason? Whatever it may be, they are consistently showing no fight in 2H’s during this rough patch. Tom Izzo will take advantage of that today in a situation where he needs to boost their resume metrics. Michigan State split with the Gophers in the season series, but Shot Quality graded both games as a Michigan State win. I like Sparty by double digits this afternoon.
Score Prediction:Michigan State 74 – Minnesota 64
Arizona -8.5 : The Trojans have been great to us during this late season surge once they returned to full health. Today is the day where we finally get off of the wagon. Arizona is primed to take revenge for their loss to the Trojans over the weekend. The Wildcats actually won that game on the SQ score (75-71). Arizona’s SQ profile is just so impressive. They are 3rd in the overall adjusted SQ rating (7th in offense, 4th in defense). The Wildcats are averaging 1.20 SQ PPP on offense, while only allowing 1.01 on defense. The Trojans are are 1.08 on both ends of the court. The class of Arizona will be too much today. I am backing them to win big in this immediate revenge spot.
Score Prediction: Arizona 85 – USC 72
Ohio State/Iowa under 154 : Iowa’s Big Ten Tournament openers have gone under in 3 out of their last 4. This includes last year’s matchup against Ohio State that finished on 142 points with a 151.5 closing total in Vegas. Fran McCaffery tends to run more sets instead of “run and gun” in these do or die scenarios. Fewer possessions might not be a great thing today. This Ohio State defense is the real deal under Diebler. The energy is through the roof and they are finally taking pride in stopping their opponents again. Below are their last 4 defensive performances:
Michigan State – 57 points
Nebraska – 69 points
Michigan – 61 points
Rutgers – 51 points
My prediction is that Iowa plays slower than their norm and that Ohio State’s defense continues to rock out. This is a Best Bet. This is also ShotQuality approved with a predicted final of 143.6.
Score Prediction: Ohio State 75 – Iowa 73
Villanova +4 : This is going to make you uncomfortable after yesterday’s stinker against DePaul. That is ok. That is what Vegas wants you to feel. Villanova has shown time and time again this season that we should not get too high or too low on them based on their wins and losses. That is my angle today with this short spread. The Wildcats tend to play to the level of their opponent. Marquette will get their juices flowing and I think we see a spirited effort today from this veteran group. The Golden Eagles are still trying to get healthy before next week. That is what means the most to them at this point. Without Kolek, I like Villanova’s chances to get a big win and firmly put their name in the field of 68. This is my second Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Villanova 71 – Marquette 69
UGA/UF under 155.5 : This is another game that may make you feel uncomfortable. These teams reached 200 & 170 points in their first two meetings this year. The pace and efficiency was through the roof. Tournament time always tightens up the pace and hampers efficiency so I think there is room to attack an under here. Florida’s rim protection *should* be able to dominate today more than they have in the recent meetings. I also think that UGA has the perimeter defense to bother Clayton and Pullin a bit. I had this game at 151 and will be happy to step in here and buck the trend from the previous two meetings this season. Go defense!
Score Prediction: Florida 79 – UGA 72
New Mexico +1.5 : Guard play, Guard play, Guard play. The Lobos have a very heavy edge in guard play in this matchup in my opinion. That is what you want in March. I am stunned that they got swept in the season series by Boise State. With the Broncos safely in the field and New Mexico still fighting for a birth, I like New Mexico to get some revenge and pick up a massive win for their resume.
American lost their regular season finale over the weekend to Navy. That made it 4 straight losses at home and a spoiled Senior Night for Matt Rogers. It looks like this team is on a downward spiral on the surface. ShotQuality shows a different story.
American has won the SQ score in 9 out of their last 10 games. This includes a current streak of 6 in a row:
It is so apparent to see what the problem is when you watch American. This team is receiving a terrible luck on the defensive end. Their 1.03 SQ PPP allowed is some of the best you will see at the low mid-major level. Yet, they are allowing 1.11 PPP. That is the reason that their record isn’t more impressive than it is. I am convinced this is the 2nd best team in this conference. It is a common phrase that “It is hard to beat a team three times in a row”. No, it’s not. Bucknell is a great matchup for American. Their 0.96 SQ PPP on offense should lend to an impressive defensive performance from the Eagles today. The Bison also had major trouble defending Matt Rogers in the first two meetings. He averaged 16.5 pts / 6 reb / 4 ast in those games. The Patriot plays their tournament on home courts of the higher seeds. I just have a hard time believing that Matt Rogers will allow American to be in a situation where they could lose the last 5 home games of his career. I think we see a monster game from him today.
American is finally healthy and they are primed to give this Patriot tournament their best shot. I like them to win emphatically today. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction:American 69 – Bucknell 58
IPFW +4 : I am feeling pretty great about our +1300 ticket right now..
Head over to ShotQuality for Max’s breakdown on this one. Link below:
UCLA +9 : Stat of the day: UCLA is 3-0 ATS as a home underdog this year. If you expand that out further, the Bruins are 7-1 ATS as home dogs during Cronin’s tenure. There have been times during this season where Cronin has looked completely checked out with this group, but he always brings the heat for the big games.
The Bruins took Arizona to the brink at the McKale Center earlier this season. UCLA built out a 19 point lead in that game, but were unable to hold on and ultimately lost by 6. This propelled them into a really good spell of play. They won the SQ score in 8 straight games which helped them obtain a 6-2 record in that stretch. The Bruins then traveled to Washington and got convincingly swept by the Washington schools. However, I believe they will return back home to Pauley Pavilion tonight and give a great effort against a Top 5 team.
I am trusting in Mick to keep this one close with his X’s and O’s. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: Arizona 77 – UCLA 72
SIUE +10 : This play is not powered by analytics or trends. This a a feel play. I watched a little bit of the Cougars game last night with Eastern Illinois and they really impressed me. The energy was fantastic and they were lockdown on the defensive end. It’s March, so you always want the team you are backing to have superb guard play. SIUE has just that. Minor, Wright and Taylor went for a combined for 55 out of the Cougars 68 points. I think they can keep this game within double digits in a win or go home setting.
Rutgers -3 : Woah baby .. this thing is steaming. The line is currently sitting around -4.5 in the market. I even see -5’s at some places. -4.5 is a fair price and I would still lay it there. This is Northwestern’s first road game without Ty Berry. The RAC is not a fun place to figure out a new rotation.
The Scarlet Knights are on a three game winning streak. There are many reasons to point to for this recent heater. The main one in my opinion? Jeremiah Williams. The 23/24 Rutgers team has an elite defense just as we have seen many times before under Pikiell. They are rated 17th in the Shot Quality adjusted defensive rating. The Scarlet Knights got off to a poor start this year because the offense just simply wasn’t at a high enough level to consistently win even with the great defense. That changed three games ago when Jeremiah Williams received his clearance from the NCAA.
— Rutgers Scarlet Knights | TheKnightReport.Net (@RutgersRivals) February 7, 2024
Kevin Willard says it all in the presser above. This team is completely different with Williams in the fold. He is just what Rutgers needed. A veteran guard who can score at every level and defend to the level of this teammates. Rutgers is back.
With Williams in the fold for Rutgers and Berry out for NW, this line was just too short. I would lay the -4.5 as well if you are just now getting your action in for the day. The Scarlet Knights roll. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction:Rutgers 70 – Northwestern 61
Tulane +3.5 : Tulane should not be an underdog in NOLA tonight. I had this game as Tulane -1. FanDuel was graciously hanging a +3.5 number out there this morning. I was happy to lock that in. I would still endorse the current number as well. Tulane is winning this game.
SMU beat Tulane on February 1st by a score of 80-76. Tulane outshot SMU in both FG% and 3PT%, but lost the game due to an overwhelming amount of offensive rebounds pulled in by the Mustangs. 19 to be exact. This is not something that I am concerned about tonight. It was an aberration for the Green Wave season. Tulane ranks 4th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage per Shot Quality. The rebounds will be much more balanced tonight.
The Green Wave are 2-0 ATS this season as a home underdog. They make that a perfect 3-0 tonight. Roll Wave!
UMass +4 : This should have been a PK spread in my opinion. Richmond -1 at the most. I believe there is a ton of value in getting the Minutemen at +4 in this matchup. The Spiders are still very inflated in the market due to their 9-1 record in A-10 play. I am not a believer.
Richmond’s defense is fraudulent. I have watched them many times this season and they are consistently getting away with allowing open looks. The Shot Quality analytics agree. SQ expects major defensive regression in the near future:
Richmond’s impressive record is stemming from a 1.08 to .96 differential in PPP scored and allowed. However, Shot Quality has those numbers at 1.07 and 1.06. Comparatively, UMass is scoring 1.15 PPP per Shot Quality while allowing 1.10 on defense. The offensive attack of the Minutemen should be able to take advantage of the defensive regression coming Richmond’s way. I also like the way Josh Cohen matches up with Neal Quinn. A big night is ahead for Cohen in my opinion.
UMass is a better team and I believe they pull off the upset tonight. Hopefully we can get a bonus Frank Martin freakout as a cherry on top. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction:UMass 74 – Richmond 72
Braeden Shrewsberry over 11.5 points : Fellas, this might be my favorite prop of the season to this point. Micah Shrewsberry now has full trust in his son to play big minutes for this team and get up a heavy volume of field goal attempts. It took a while for the freshman to find his footing in the college game, but he has been very impressive in the new year. Braeden’s averages still have not caught up to his recent production, so now is the time to attack his prop market before it gets inflated.
Shrewsberry has cleared 11.5 points in 7 of his last 10 games. He has also connected on at least two three pointers in ALL 10 of these games. He is averaging 3.2 three point makes on 6.8 attempts per game during this stretch. Georgia Tech is 215th in the country in Open 3 Rate allowed on defense per Shot Quality. They are also 164th in the country in percentage of points allowed from threes. I expect another heavy volume night for Braeden. To further prove the sentiment above, here is where Shrewsberry ranks in the three point percentiles per Shot Quality:
The spacing percentile is important to note as well due to the Open 3 Rate defensive metric from the Yellow Jackets. Braeden will have some great looks tonight.
The minutes and volume of shots are there. The matchup is there. I love this play. This is another Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Braeden Shrewsberry 16 points
Wyoming +7 : This line has moved to 8 at most places. It is not surprising to see people interested in grabbing Utah State as a single digit favorite. However, I love this play and would definitely endorse the better number in the marketplace right now as well.
Laramie is not an easy place to walk in and win as a road favorite. The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS as a home underdog this season. Two very good teams have lost outright this year in Laramie laying a similar number as Utah State. Nevada and Colorado State both lost outright as 7.5 point favorites. Also, the Aggies are only 1-2-1 ATS as a road favorite this season. I think this is a great spot for us to back the Cowboys.
Not a ton of basketball analysis here. This is just a situational spot that I love. I am happy with my +7 ticket and will probably add a little more wherever this number lands. Go Cowboys!
Purdue -2 : I promise I do not have it out for the Badgers. I just feel like their pricing in the market is heavily inflated at the moment. This spread should be sitting around -4.5 or -5. We were finally able to take advantage in the midweek with Nebraska’s come back win. I think Purdue walks into the Kohl Center and gets a victory today just as they did a season ago. Wisconsin had no answers for Zach Edey as he went for 17 & 19 on 7/9 shooting from the field. That will be the recipe for success again today for the Boilermakers.
The Badgers are living dangerously as I previously discussed in an article. They now have been graded out with losses in 4 out of their last 6 games by the Shot Quality score. One of their weaknesses is the quality of three point shots they are allowing. They rank 298th in the country in quality of 3’s allowed per Shot Quality. Purdue has the snipers to take advantage of this when they collapse on Edey. I feel comfortable laying the points here. This bet is Shot Quality model approved. Below is the prediction:
Score Prediction:Purdue 74 – Wisconsin 69
Villanova -4.5 : Doing something special today. I have brought in https://twitter.com/ZGtheGrapevine to help us with the write-up today!
ZG: After dropping their 5th straight to Marquette earlier in the week, this is about as “must win” as it gets for Kyle Neptune’s bunch. Villanova’s backs are against the wall here and I see them putting their best foot forward at home. Villanova plays at an incredibly slow pace, averaging 69 possessions per game, ranking 268th in the country. I think we see a good, old fashioned, Big East slobber-knocker with Villanova dictating the flow of the game. My model projects this game’s total at 133.96. Providence has also shown a tendency to be turnover-prone, averaging 13 turnovers per game and are 238th in turnover percentage, according to KenPom. Nova is just flat out better at taking care of the basketball. Both teams are defending at a competent level, but the age-old turnover battle could really be the difference with a small 4.5 point spread. Add in Nova’s elite free throw shooting and it’s a recipe to pull away late. I expect to see the Wildcat’s best effort. Home court advantage and desperation can be one hell of a combination.
Score Prediction: Villanova 71 – Providence 63
Sniper: I completely agree with ZG’s handicap of this game. This is a must-win for Villanova and they are more than capable of doing so. This is not as bad of a team as their record indicates. The Wildcats are still rated 23rd in the Shot Quality adjusted overall rating. They should win the turnover and free throw battle as ZG suggested above, and I also think that the three point line will be a real difference maker in this game. The Friars come into today’s game 311th in efficient three point shooting. Villanova ranks 44th in the country in open three rate allowed on defense, so the three point makes should be hard to come by for Providence. Conversely, Villanova ranks 15th in 3PT attempt rate and is 35th in three point makes per game even at their slow tempo. This could be purely anecdotal but I feel like the Wildcats always shoot better at the Wells Fargo Center. That is where the game is being played today. I love Nova to put a stop to their losing streak today. I will lay the points. This is my BestBet.
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