Purdue -12.5 : The seems to be a sexy Iowa spot. Virtually all of the buzz that I have seen on Twitter/X surrounding this game is loving on the Hawkeyes catching 12.5 in this spot. I simply do not see it. Iowa will have no answer for an offense centered around Zach Edey today.
We are used to the Hawkeyes being a putrid defensive team under Fran McCaffery. This group may prove to be worse than other recent versions. The Hawkeyes are currently sitting at 214th in the country in adjusted Shot Quality defensive rating. The even bigger issue? The majority of the metrics that are bringing this rating down are key areas that you cannot be poor in when trying to defend Zach Edey. Iowa is 312th (!!!) in the country in SQ PPP allowed in post-up scenarios. Heaven help them.
The Hawkeyes also come in at 194th in SQ PPP allowed on shots attacking the rim and 304th in catch and shoot threes. If Iowa throws the house at Edey to try to slow him down in the post, then it is going to be a field day for him finding cutters and open three point shooters. Edey is an underrated passer. There is simply no defensive plan of attack for the Hawkeyes that will have any success. The regression analysis of Iowa also shows they may be due for a slight dip in their potent offensive numbers to start the year.
Purdue’s defense has impressed me this season. I truly see Friday’s loss at Northwestern to be an anomaly on that end of the court. It was a situational nightmare and the spread told us everything we needed to know. We thankfully cashed our Northwestern ticket in OT in that one. Even with allowing 92 points in an OT loss to the Wildcats, Purdue still comes into tonight ranked 30th in Shot Quality’s adjusted defensive rating. They have had some dominant performances on that end of the court this season including holding Gonzaga to 63 and Tennessee to 67 points in Maui.
The public is licking their chops to grab the 12.5 points with a sexy offensive team in Iowa. Especially with Purdue coming off of a loss. Zigging when the public zags usually proves fruitful. The answer is in the defensive metrics. This is a Best Bet. Boiler Up!
LSU +1.5 : The Tigers are going to win this game in the paint. Syracuse is struggling on the boards to start the year. That may be an understatement.
LSU will be able to feast on the offensive glass. The Tigers are 47th in the country in offensive rebounding rate at 33% per SQ metrics. Will Baker and Jalen Reed bring talent and athleticism that the Orange just cannot matchup with in the frontcourt. The same is true defensively. The Bayou Bengals are elite at protecting the rim.
This will force Syracuse to shoot from the outside and that is just not a recipe for success for this roster. The Orange are only shooting 28.8% from distance. This includes a 1-16 start to the season for Notre Dame transfer, J.J Starling. This game screams hero ball from Judah Mintz and I just do not seeing that being enough to get past a quality LSU team.
Let’s also not forget the Maui hangover for Cuse.
This game is SQ Model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool. Use promo code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month subscription to be able to use these fantastic tools.
Score Prediction:LSU 76 – Syracuse 73
Mizzou/Pitt o146.5 : This is a three point sniper game if I’ve ever seen one. We are going to Mike Breen *BANG* our way over the total tonight. These two teams love to let it fly from distance. Mizzou enters tonight 27th in the country in 3pt attempt rate at 46.9% per possession. Pitt is not far behind them at 31st with a 46.3% rate. These attempts are falling as well. Pitt is 9th in the country in three pointers made per game, and Mizzou checks in at 23rd. This game could very well turn into a three point shooting contest. We love that.
I also love the facilitating from both teams. That especially rings true when I talk about Bub Carrington. This is one of the most impressive freshman guards I have seen in a long, long time.
The youngest player in the ACC, Bub Carrington brings an intriguing combination of size, live-dribble passing and shot-making, despite not playing point guard full time prior to enrolling in college. We'll learn a lot more about his NBA outlook as the season moves on. pic.twitter.com/SB7KOu9JQX
The facilitating is assisted by elite spacing from both teams. Mizzou is ranked 15th in the country in neutral spacing on offense per SQ metrics, and Pitt is 23rd. There should be many open looks tonight.
Tempo is also in our favor. Mizzou’s tempo stat is sitting in the low 200’s, but that is skewed by the small sample size of games in which they faced slow playing opponents in the majority of them. Just as we spoke about with Northwestern yesterday. Make no mistake about it, Dennis Gates wants the Tigers to run.
This bet is SQ Model approved. The projection is 77.6-76 in favor of Pitt. I think Mizzou has a chance to cover as well, but my heavy edge is with the total. We gave this out last night, but I would still play it at the current number of 148. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Pitt 79 – Mizzou 75
Ole Miss -1 : I am a fan of NC State long term this season. They will be scrappy in the ACC. However, I have been excited for this fade spot since Friday night. This team completely lost their minds in the final game of their MTE in Vegas. The Wolfpack had three players ejected, as well as head coach Kevin Keatts. They were not able to handle their emotions with poise once BYU went on their insane 2H run. The team completely unraveled. Heading to a hostile SEC environment for your next game is not the best situation to “get right”. Chris Beard has Rebs fans believing.
Ole Miss will have a significant advantage in the paint in this game. Jaemyn Brakefield is a matchup nightmare for DJ Burns Jr. This especially rings true when NC State goes with their “big” rotation where Burns is at the 4. That means Brakefield will have 7’5 Jamarion Sharp on the help side. Sharp has been one of the best, if not the best, shot blockers in the country for many years now.
Allen Flanigan is playing like an SEC Player of the Year candidate. He was once viewed as a first round prospect at Auburn before he suffered through some injuries. It appears that he is now putting it all together again at his new home in Oxford.
Allen Flanigan with an impressive showing against Temple with 26/8/7 + 2 STL and 2 BLK. After an up-and-down career at Auburn, the 6'6 wing has been fantastic so far at Ole Miss, averaging 20.2/7.2/2.2 + 1.8 STL and 1 BLK. One to monitor with greatly improved overall production. pic.twitter.com/T66qQtTiYg
I see this being a tight game, but I am giving the coaching edge to Beard here. Keatts looks to not have full control over this roster right now after what I saw in Vegas. I also believe a true 3 points of homecourt should be included in a handicap for this game. It should be rowdy. I would still play this at the current number of -2. I would not exceed -2.5.
Tennessee +1.5 : I walked out of yesterday’s game against Purdue more impressed with Tennessee than I was entering it. That is wild to say after a loss. However, I think they were the better team in the game. The result was decided by the whistle. There should never be an instance where a team shoots 48 free throws in a college basketball game. It was a disgrace. I do think there will be a word into the officiating crew to give the whistles a bit of a break today. That favors the Vols in a matchup with Kansas.
If you are able to get physical with Dickinson and McCullar, there is really nowhere else to turn on the Jayhawk roster for offensive production. This is not the #1 team in the country as their ranking states. The role players on this team are simply not getting the job done. Nicolas Timberlake was a highly touted transfer pull from Towson. He is only shooting 30.4% from the field on the year and has not exceeded 12 minutes in a game at the Maui Invitational. It also appears that it will take a while for Johnny Furphy and Elmarko Jackson to get accustomed to the college game. They are simply not ready for war with this veteran Tennessee team. The depth advantage lies heavily with the Vols.
Dalton Knecht and Jordan Gainey have added a much needed perimeter threat to the Tennessee roster.
They both eclipsed the double digit made threes mark on the young season after yesterday’s game. Their ability to stretch the floor and knock down shots has been very beneficial for JJJ and Mashack getting into the lane and finishing around the rim. The new and improved offense makes the Vols very dangerous this year.
It is also worth noting that Kansas played the late game yesterday. This game today is being played at 09:30am local time. Not having the proper rest and recovery and then going out and getting pushed around by Tennessee will certainly be a big challenge for Kansas to overcome. Vols get the W. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction:Tennessee 74 – Kansas 68
Marquette +3.5 : You will have to drag me off of this Golden Eagle train. This is one of my favorite teams of the 23/24 season. Watching them completely dismantle Kansas last night was some of the most fun I have had watching a game this year.
There is energy like this pouring out of every single player on this team. That is what impresses me the most about Marquette. Even when Sean Jones and Chase Ross enter from the bench, the energy is still palpable. I mentioned the togetherness of this team in the write-up yesterday. Some people laugh at me when I say this, but it is a very important handicapping metric in an MTE like this.
The culture all stems from Shaka Smart. Here was his quote following the game regarding his dispute with Bill Self”
“The one thing we’re gonna make clear is we don’t take a back seat to anyone,” Smart said to reporters after the game. “That’s how we go about things, and that’s the only way you beat Kansas. I’ve learned the hard way against Kansas. You gotta stand up to them.”
The Golden Eagles will be ready for the fight today with Purdue. There are many matchup edges they can exploit here. I believe that Ighodaro is going to be a problem for Edey in coverage. He is going to have to come out and respect his play making ability. That will leave the lane open for their athletic guards to blow by Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith. I also think that Shaka can use Sean Jones in a similar way that Rick Barnes did with Zakai Zeigler on Smith yesterday. The full-court pressure defense was a problem for him.
This game is a coin flip for me. I will gladly take the 3.5 points. Ring Out Ahoya.
Score Prediction: Marquette 71 – Purdue 70
WVU/UVA o120 : Taking an over in a UVA game is always an adventure. The Hoos only scored 41 points when we cashed our Wisconsin best bet over them. However, I believe there are many avenues to points for them against the disjointed WVU defense.
West Virginia is still searching for an identity after a tumultuous offseason. The defensive issues they are working through will be a huge problem for them today against the methodical UVA offense. WVU is 155th in the country in SQ PPP allowed off-screen and 217th in the country in SQ PPP allowed on cuts. Tony Bennett will exploit that today.
West Virginia should have an edge in the post offensively. Jesse Edwards and Quin Slazinski can watch the Wisconsin and Florida tape on UVA and pick-up on ways to attack the Cavs. The UVA defense has impressive analytics from a results standpoint this year. However, SQ regression analysis shows they are due to have more shots drop against them sooner than later.
Pace will not be our friend in this play, but I believe that the efficiencies both offenses will have gets us over the total. This bet is SQ Model approved. It predicts 68.8-64.1 final in UVA’s favor. I personally think UVA gets close to covering in this one.
Score Prediction: UVA 68 – WVU 57
Stanford/Arkansas u154.5 : This is another bet that makes you sweat when you place it. Taking an under in a game where one team averages 87.8 ppg and the other averages 84.3 ppg. I am clinging onto the belief that both defenses make an impact on this game today.
Both team enter tonight’s game as Top 50 SQ PPP defenses. Stanford has been elite in protecting the rim (7th), and Arkansas has been elite in defending the three point line (35th). They will each be the toughest defense that the other has faced this year. It could be a shock to the system in the first few minutes of this game. Especially on a neutral court in the Bahamas. A sluggish start would mean a lot for a total this high.
Pace again will not be our friend here. However, I believe both defenses do enough to get us under this total. I hate going against pace analytics twice in a day, so you know I love these plays. This is also one of the biggest edges of the night on the SQ Model. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool. Use promo code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month of a subscription:
Score Prediction: Arkansas 77 – Stanford 72
Pitt +5.5 : I do not see 5.5 points of difference in these teams on a neutral right now. The books must still have the jury out on Bub Carrington. I do not. This kid is one of the best guards in the ACC.
The analytic sites are starting to support this. The Carrington + Hinson duo is an almost impossible task for a defense to attack. If you show too much attention to one of them, then the other attacks. The Panthers also have a frontline that can compete with the trees from Florida. Federiko and the Diaz Graham brothers are exceptional on the glass and defensive end of the court.
This is an incredible stat profile for Pitt. The Panthers are the real deal. I think they keep this game tight throughout. Punchers chance to win.
Gonzaga -12.5 : The Zags gave Purdue one hell of a fight yesterday. They led for the majority of the 1H, but crumbled late in the 2H due to a flurry of open looks rimming out.
As you can see from the image above, there was only one big discrepancy in the game from the real score to the SQ score. It was the 2H for the Zags. Ryan Nembhard was a maestro in creating many open opportunities for his teammates against a great defense. I believe that he will find even more success today against a Syracuse defense that I do not believe in.
Graham Ike was super impressive yesterday. We loved him as a Cowboy, but it was great to see him excel on the big stage. He really showed the full package. Ike was able to stretch the floor and knock down two big time threes with Edey in drop coverage.
Ike gained the respect of Painter and they started to get out and cover him on the perimeter after that. This enabled the Zags to have a better chance to compete on the boards. They outrebounded the Boilermakers 13 to 8 on the offensive glass.
There will be little to no resistance from Syracuse against this high powered Gonzaga offense. The total is high, but it is for good reason. Zags win in blowout fashion.
Score Prediction:Gonzaga 87 – Syracuse 70
Illinois State -1 : Depth will be a huge factor in this back-to-back at the Gulf Coast Showcase. The Redbirds are deep. Illinois State is playing a 9-man rotation now that Darius Buford is healthy and back in the fold. It is quality depth as well. Any guess on who the 9th man off of the bench is? It is a 20+ min guy from the Big 10 a season ago. Jordan Davis has transferred over from Wisconsin but is buried on the bench behind this quality depth. Poindexter, Banks and Buford is as good as it gets for a lower tier mid-major backcourt. Malachi Poindexter (UVA transfer) is one of the most underappreciated shooters in the country. He was 94.5% from the stripe and 37.7% from distance as season ago for Illinois State.
High Point is really only getting production from 6 guys right now. They will have no choice but to dig into their bench today in a B2B scenario. The Redbirds should be able to pounce when they do.
Illinois State is also performing well in many metrics that I like to see from a mid-major team of this caliber. They are 33rd in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and 46th in the country in free throw rate. The Redbirds are also 53rd in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a complete team.
The market has not caught up with just how good this team is. Redbirds win by a few possessions. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Illinois State 73 – High Point 67
Tennessee +3 : As we mentioned earlier, Purdue was a bit fortunate to escape comfortably against Gonzaga yesterday. I understand that is a bit silly to say since they won by double digits. However, they were a few Gonzaga threes dropping away from being in a dog fight at the end of that game. Their performance on the defensive end gives me a lot of questions coming into today.
How will Fletcher Loyer compete against the likes of Knecht/Ziegler/Vescovi? He looked like a huge liability against the Gonzaga backcourt yesterday. That is not a big change from a season ago. His inability to compete on that end was a major reason for their late season collapse. Dalton Knecht will likely be his draw to start the game. Good luck, Fletcher.
Tennessee rolls in the first round of the Maui Invitational behind 17 points from Dalton Knecht 🔥 pic.twitter.com/kFXn2UJCoS
Edey also struggled on the defensive end against Graham Ike for large portions of the game yesterday. I believe that Rick Barnes has a great blueprint to implement similar sets for Josiah Jordan-James today thanks to Mark Few.
I see this game as a PK on a neutral court. I will gladly take the three points. This bet is SQ Model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool:
Score Prediction: Tennessee 67 – Purdue 66
Marquette +5 : Man, do I love this team. The Golden Eagles support one another more than any group that I have seen in recent memory. Every pass, block, charge, steal, shot made, etc is celebrated by everyone else in the blue and gold. I truly believe that goes a long way in an MTE. When you are playing back-to-back days, sometimes you need a “pick me up” from your brothers to get you going when your energy tank is running low.
Marquette can also hoop to go along with their great chemistry. The emergence of David Joplin is so crucial to this team continuing their success from a season ago.
Without David Joplin, Marquette wouldn't have stayed afloat tonight. Many asked if he could fill the void left by Olivier-Maxence Prosper. The junior led the Golden Eagles with 19 points tonight, burying 5 threes. He's a matchup issue for opponents.
Joplin was 5-11 from distance yesterday against UCLA. Most of these threes were made at crucial points in the game. Having a knockdown shooter on the same team as Tyler Kolek is a problem for any defense. Kolek struggled during many parts of the game yesterday, but was still able to record 9 assists. His greatness truly is underappreciated.
I like Ighodaro’s chances to influence the Dickinson matchup in a positive way for Marquette. His athleticism will be a big problem for Hunter. If Ighodaro is able to stay at home and not bite at Dickinson’s post moves, then Marquette will be in good shape to push for a W. He has to stay out of foul trouble for the Golden Eagles to have a chance.
I do think Kansas wins a close one tonight, but this was a buy spot for me with Marquette at +5. I have this as Kansas -2.5 on a neutral. The value is too much to pass on an excellent team playing with this type of chemistry right now. The Golden Eagles have a punchers chance.
Zags/Purdue u155.5 : I have been extremely excited for this game since the preseason. It will be fun to see how this edition of Gonzaga stacks up against Purdue. The Zags and Boilermakers faced off last year in the Phil Knight Legacy tournament. Purdue spanked Gonzaga by a final score of 84-66. The total only reached 150 points even with 19 made threes in the game.
The pace will be in our favor again today. Purdue comes into this game ranked 142nd in possessions per game in this early season. That is elevated due to the level of competition faced to this point. The Boilermakers were 341st (out of 363) in possessions per game a year ago. They return essentially the same cast. Matt Painter will want to slow it down today and not get into a track meet with the Zags. Gonzaga’s offense is predicated on an up-tempo approach, but they only rank 221 in possessions per game this season. That is likely due to implementing many new faces. Let’s take advantage of that now from an under perspective.
I love our chances at going under this total due to Gonzaga not being up to full speed and Purdue trying to slow the game down. This play is Shot Quality model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder. Use Promo Code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month on a subscription.
Score Prediction:Purdue 77 – Gonzaga 72
Wisconsin +3.5 : This was a gift of a line from the oddsmakers in my opinion. I have Wisconsin as a one possession favorite on a neutral, so I will gladly take the points here.
The Badgers have their backs against the wall after a 2-2 start to the season. There was a ton of hype surrounding this team in the offseason due to Greg Gard returning his entire starting five. They have obviously underperformed, but the Badgers probably have faced the toughest gauntlet of a schedule so far this year. There is no shame in losing to Tennessee at home. The Vols have a legit Final Four caliber roster. There is also no shame in losing a true road game at Providence. I will continue to say that is the toughest road test in the country. SQ analytics actually show that Wisconsin had an implied 65% win percentage in that game based on the looks created. The crowd and momentum played a huge factor. There is no reason to panic on my preseason power rating on Wisconsin based off of these factors. I actually think the production that we are seeing from A.J Storr makes Wisconsin a bigger factor in the national landscape down the road than I did before the season started. I was unsure of what his role would be on this team, but he has earned big minutes and is providing great production. His athleticism will be a huge factor today.
We bet on UF against UVA in the opening week. It was a soul crushing late game loss. Florida had an opportunity to take the lead in the game on their last two offensive possessions, but turned the ball over carelessly in both situations. The Hoos were lucky to walk away with the win in that one. SQ data backs that up. Their implied win percentage was 18% based on the SQ score. I did not leave that game with a changed opinion on UVA. I still have them lower in my power ratings than the books do.
This game is going to be played at a slow pace tonight. It will be tight and will likely come down to the last possession either way. Getting the full +3.5 makes this one of my favorite bets of the season to this point. SQ model agrees with this. The model shows a 62.2-61.6 final in Wisconsin’s favor. This is my Best Bet. Badgers outright.
**Not related to gambling, but wanted to share this information because I was touched by this story while doing research on the game. Wisconsin is playing for a higher purpose tonight. They have recently received news that their former teammate, Walt McGrory, is facing a tougher battle than he ever has before with his cancer. Greg Gard started off his presser after the RMU game talking about Walt. That is how big of an impact he has made on his teammates and coaches in Madison. If you have the means, please donate to help Walt and his family at https://www.gofundme.com/f/walt-mcgrorys-fight-against-osteosarcoma.
Score Prediction: Wisconsin 64 – UVA 61
Texas +5.5 : The Texas performance yesterday probably led to 1-1.5 points baked into this line in favor of UConn. We will not fall into that trap. While it was obviously not ideal to have to hit a buzzer beater to knock off the mess that is Louisville, there is still reason to believe they can keep this one close today.
The Texas offense is one of the more impressive units that I have seen in the game this year.
These stat profiles show that the Longhorns are extremely efficient on that end of the court right now. They are also 2nd in the country in SQ PPP attacking the rim, 9th in the country in SQ PPP on catch & shoot 3’s, and 18th in the country in SQ PPP on off of the dribble 3’s. This offense will keep them in the game tonight.
This will be UConn’s first test of the season facing an offense of this caliber. I realize that they played IU yesterday, but that offense has been pathetic this season to put it lightly. The Huskies are still working a few new pieces into this system and I do not think their defense is elite just yet. It will get there, but not yet. While most metrics are showing that they are exceling on that end of the court, the Huskies actually have displayed one sign of vulnerability. They are 145th in the country in SQ PPP allowed in transition. Texas has the roster to exploit that. Even the bigs run the floor.
The Texas offense does enough for us to keep this one close. I think they have a punchers chance to win this game. I personally have a little Wisconsin/Texas ML parlay tonight. Hook ‘Em!
Score Prediction: UConn 74 – Texas 71
New Orleans/Oklahoma State o145 : I touted Jordan Johnson from New Orleans as one of the best shooters in the country in the preseason. I have not backed down from that stance. He is a sniperrrrrrrr
Johnson went for 31 (6-12 3pt) last time out against Loyola. He was a major reason why we backed the Privateers as a 15 point dog in that one and they almost pulled out an outright victory. I fear for their defense in a bigger way in this one, but Johnson’s ability to knock down shots against tough defenses gives me confidence that the Privateers score enough to get us over the total tonight.
The pace should also be in our favor. New Orleans loves to run and Oklahoma State can always get baited into a track meet. Especially in Stillwater. This bet is also SQ Model approved. Let’s score some points!
Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 81 – New Orleans 70
UCLA/Marquette o138.5 : Marquette is one of the few teams in the country who can force their tempo to the fullest no matter the opponent. This is due to having an All-American at the point. Tyler Kolek has one of the best outlet pass skillsets in the country. His ability to get the Golden Eagles in transition before the defense gets back is truly impressive.
This is a video of Kolek from a few years before he turned into an All-American. He has always had this skillset and has even improved on these abilities since then. I expect Marquette to use Kolek to get the Golden Eagles in transition often today. It would be beneficial for them to force the action instead of trying to succeed in the half-court. A large reason for that is Adem Bona’s ability to protect the rim. Marquette does not want to see him in the half-court often.
This play has been steamed in the market since I tweeted it out earlier. I still like it at the current number. I would not advise playing it over 141.5 though. Most of the value has been sucked out at this point.
LSU +1.5 : I am not buying this overreaction in the market to LSU’s loss at the hands of Nicholls. I have LSU as a slight favorite on a neutral, so I am glad to jump in here and back the Tigers in a bounce back spot.
I am concerned about the loss of Malachi Smith for Dayton. Last year showed just how impactful he was, and I believe that his absence will be felt even more this season. The transfer portal really ate at the depth of this roster. There is really only a 6 man rotation for the Flyers right now. LSU is a physical team that will force their way to the free throw line. The Tigers are 18th in the country in free throw rate per Shot Quality analytics. Foul trouble for Dayton will be a factor today.
Let’s jump back to the LSU loss to Nicholls. This was a complete fluke. LSU went down 44-20 in the 1H and nearly came back and won the game. Nicholls had some very fortunate shots drop in the 1H to get that run started. As you can see below, LSU winning by double digits was the more likely outcome than an outright loss. SQ graded it as a 75-59 win for LSU with an implied win percentage of 92%. I feel comfortable in backing them today.
Score Prediction: LSU 70 – Dayton 66
OK State/Bonnies o135.5 : What an absolute heater we are on with totals. A 10-0 run to start the season! Let’s make it 11 tonight.
Transition buckets and free throws are going to be the key in going over the total tonight. Oklahoma State comes into tonight ranked 219th in the country in transition SQ PPP allowed, and St. Bonaventure comes in at 166th. This will be a point of emphasis tonight from Mark Schmidt and Mike Boynton.
Both defenses as a whole are severely underperforming out of the gate. The Cowboys surrendered 70 points to Sam Houston State last time out, and the Bonnies allowed 70 to Canisius in their most recent affair.
This bet is SQ model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool. Use promo code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month:
Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 71 – St. Bonaventure 70
Lipscomb/Tenn Tech o146.5 : This is going to be a fun game for true Three Point Sniper followers. It is going to be bombs away from distance. Lipscomb comes into this game ranked 327th in the country in allowing high quality three point looks, and Tennessee Tech is even worse at 345th. Lipscomb is out to a hot start from distance this season. The Bisons have connected on 32 threes in 3 games. Tennessee Tech has been cold shooting the ball to start the year, but I expect them to heat up tonight with the lackluster Lipscomb perimeter defense. The Golden Eagles made 302 threes a season ago while shooting them at impressive clip of 36.4% as a team.
The pace will be in our favor tonight. Both teams ranked in the Top 100 in the country in possessions per game a season ago. This matchup was surprisingly low scoring last year year (which explains the Vegas line), but that was because of an off night offensively by both teams. The pace was still there to go over the total that we see tonight. The two programs also played the season prior and there was 165 points.
This play is supported by the SQ Model. When my thoughts align with the SQ model on a total, you know the drill. Let’s keep the undefeated total run rolling!
Score Prediction: Lipscomb 77 – Tennessee Tech 75
Long Beach State +13 : I am back to fade SDSU until the market properly prices them. Again, I still believe that the Aztecs are a phenomenal team. However, the market is still pricing them as if they are the same team from last year’s Final Four run. There was great vindication of this thought process when we bet BYU in their win against SDSU over the weekend.
Long Beach State can pack a punch. They walked into Chicago on Saturday night and picked up a huge road win over DePaul.
The Beach bring the toughness that you need to compete with San Diego State. The Traore brothers set the tone for this team in that department. They combined for 20 rebounds and 2 blocks in the win over DePaul. Continuing the defensive rebounding success will be huge tonight. They will need to build off of their hot start in that regard.
There is also a great balance in the scoring on this team. They have four players averaging double figures. The continuity in this roster is another reason why I am believing in this team to get us under the number tonight. They are returning the same starting 5 that they finished the season with last year.
I would be stunned to see Long Beach State pull off another upset, but I believe they can fight long enough to keep us under this number. I feel good about this one
Score Prediction: SDSU 77 – Long Beach State 68
App State +2.5 : Dustin Kerns and the Mountaineers will be pulling off the upset tonight in Corvallis. Wayne Tinkle and the Beavers have been susceptible to early season upsets (if you want to call them upsets) to mid-major programs. Since 2020, Oregon State has lost to Portland, Tulsa, Samford, Princeton, UC Davis, Portland State (twice last year lmao) in the opening months of the season. Many of these games were played on their home court.
Oregon State already ranks 314th in the country in turnover rate. That will be a major issue for the Beavers tonight if this trend continues. They are facing a Mountaineer team who is feasting on turnovers per usual:
As you can see above, travel will not be an issue for the Mountaineers. They have been in Oregon for several days. The team got to experience a Nike HQ tour and really had a lot of time to get their minds right after they blew a game they should’ve won against NIU. Just like with LBSU, App State brings back a hefty chunk of minutes from a season ago. That is crucial for me when backing a mid-major program on the road against a power conference team.
This play is SQ model approved. We both have App State in a close one.
Citadel +4 : The Blue Hose will be a welcomed sight for Ed Conroy and the Bulldogs. The Citadel has really challenged themselves to start the season. They opened up their year at NC State, and then faced Boston College in Charleston for their home opener. The Bulldogs were able to put a real scare into BC. It was a 1 point game with a minute and a half left. The 0-2 record is very deceiving.
I really love the balance of Citadel. Conroy was able to land Quentin Millora-Brown in the offseason. That is an insanely good portal grab for a program of their stature. Millora-Brown started 57 games in the last two seasons for Vanderbilt at center. He was serviceable in this first two games this year against ACC opponents, but games like tonight are where he is going to be able to flex his muscle as a legitimate power-conference big. He has a massive size advantage over everyone on Presbyterian. I expect a double digit rebound night and some easy put backs. The Bulldogs are also a year older in the backcourt. AJ Smith and Madison Durr appear to have taken a big step from their freshman seasons. Elijah Morgan is a great compliment to Durr & Smith with his ability to shoot the three. He was 4-8 from distance in the game against Boston College. Also, keep your eye on Winston Hill. He was one of the better players for Presbyterian in recent years. He is now following in the footsteps of his dad and playing at The Citadel. His dad and Ed Conroy are great friends from their playing days together in Charleston. I expect Hill to have a big night in his former gym.
This is power rating play for me. I have The Citadel as a 2 point favorite on a neutral, so I will gladly take the 4 here. I am not giving much advantage at all to the PC home court. This game should be a PK at worst, and I think The Citadel pick up their first win of the season. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: The Citadel 69 – Presbyterian 67
ETSU/Butler u145.5 : We have experienced positive CLV in most of the games we have played this season, but this is one that has gone the other way on us a bit. The current number now sits at 147.5. The movement does not scare me on this one. I fully endorse taking the u147.5 if you have not made a play yet. If there is any more movement in that direction, I may double dip.
We touched on it in our first article of the season, but I want to reiterate that the interior defense for Butler is some of the best that you will find in the country. Jalen Thomas and Andre Screen are causing all kinds of problems for their mid-major level competition. The block numbers aren’t jumping off of the stat sheet, but they are holding their opponents to 38% finishing around the rim. That is elite. The backcourt is also doing a fantastic job locking down the opposing guards from the perimeter. Posh Alexander has been picking up the opposing PG from full court on almost every made basket for Butler. Not only is this disrupting the flow of the opposing offense, but it is also taking valuable seconds off of the shot clock. Posh’s press will be crucial to our under tonight.
This play is SQ Model approved. Below is the prediction for tonight’s game from the model. Use promo code “TPS” for a discount on a subscription to access great tools like this one!
Score Prediction: Butler 77 – ETSU 63
FGCU/Pitt o145 : With Isaiah Thompson back in the fold for FGCU, I am in full go mode on continuing to attack the market until their games are priced properly. We were able to cash a ticket in their opener against Indiana, and I see an edge on the total tonight.
The Eagles have one of the most complete offenses that you will find at the mid-major level. I will double down on my Night 1 article and say this is a tournament team. Isaiah Thompson is not a mid-major point guard. Pat Chambers did one hell of a job in getting him down to Fort Myers from Purdue a season ago. Thompson has a full compliment of weapons around him to make this offense hum. Chase Johnston is one of my favorite shooters in the country. His release is very quick, and he probably has the best “get hot” trait in the country. Dallion Johnson has also added an extra threat from distance. He came on the scene with a 5-11 3pt performance at Assembly Hall. Andre Weir and Zach Anderson also pack a punch in the paint.
I am also excited about Pitt this season. The main reason is Blake Hinson’s continuous improvement. He has taken the reigns of the offense and is becoming more efficient in the way he is attacking defenses.
Blake Hinson took just 22.7% of his shots last season at the rim, that number is up almost 10% through 2 games this season. Very small sample size but he’s looked like a more complete player offensively.
Bub Carrington has also been a lightning rod in the backcourt. He earned All-ACC honors after an incredible first week in the college game.
Pitt guard Bub Carrington was named ACC Rookie of the Week.
– Averaged 18/7.5/7 in 2 games – 1st D-1 player to record a triple-double in his debut since 2001 – 1st Pitt triple-double since 1998 season and 5th in school history
I had this total at 149, so there is plenty of value at the current number. Sit back and enjoy some great offense tonight.
Score Prediction: Pitt 79 – FGCU 70
Rider/Nebraska u149.5 : This play is being placed strictly on pace. I understand that both programs added some very welcomed additions on the offense end of the ball, but the pace is too much to ignore. I see a massive edge on this one.
Rider finished last season 311th in possessions per game. It appears that they will try to play quicker this season with their new weapons, but still only sit at 108th in this young season. We also know that Fred Hoiberg runs a methodical offense at Nebraska. The Cornhuskers ranked 198th in possessions per game a year ago. I believe that the offense could run even slower this season. It is for a good reason if you are a Nebraska fan. The Huskers added Rienk Mast in the transfer portal. The 6’10 Bradley transfer is one of the most efficient bigs in the country. He is a player that ensures that his team is getting the best possible shot every time down the court. That is huge for us from a clock perspective. He is accustomed to a slower pace from his time at Bradley, and really likes to play a chess match with his defenders on his post moves and facilitating. He is an efficient scorer and will definitely score at will on an undersized Rider team, but I have a strong feeling he will help us drain this clock tonight.
This play is supported by the SQ model. I have also included snippets of the Game Page below. This was very close to a Best Bet.
Charleston Southern -2 : Is this game as ugly as the Thursday Night Football game tonight on paper? Maybe. Is there an edge in this matchup? Certainly. There is always value in the crumbs. You may ask why we are backing a team that was 10-21 a year ago in their first meaningful game of this season. Fair question. While most programs in this scenario would lose any player of significance to the portal in the offseason, Barclay Radebaugh was able to retain three players who started at least 25 games a year ago. This includes Tajé Kelly (leader in rebounds) and RJ Johnson (leader in assists). Radebaugh was also able to secure DJ Patrick in the portal. The USF transfer was an absolute bucket in junior college, but was unable to carve out a role on the Bulls. Patrick had a breakout performance in his debut for the Buccaneers on Monday:
(ESPN)
While the opposition was nowhere near the D1 level, it was still a superstar performance in only 23 minutes of work. As you can see, Patrick got hot from distance. I can see that being a huge edge here tonight for the Bucs. A season ago, North Florida ranked 332nd in the country in allowing high quality looks from 3 per Shot Quality metrics. In addition, the Bucs were 66th in the country in open 3 rate.
I am not impressed at all with what Matthew Driscoll has done to reshape this Osprey roster for the 23/24 season. He lost his top five scorers, and replenished them by elevating his bench players and mixing in some portal guys. There is not a single portal addition that averaged over 5.6 ppg a season ago. Shot Quality also shows a very damning resume for the Osprey returners in many key areas that you have to have cleaned up to secure road wins:
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This line opened up at -1.5. I was lucky to grab a 2 before it elevated to -2.5. I see this game getting to 3 by tip. All of these numbers are good to play in my opinion. I would have Charleston Southern winning by 4 points on a neutral, so I see tonight as a 6 to 7 point victory on home court. This gym will likely be empty by the end of the December, but even these types of programs have a buzz in the gym to start the year. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Charleston Southern 76 – North Florida 69
Western Kentucky +7.5 : I am not seeing a huge disparity in these rosters for the 23/24 season. The Shockers have an incredible home court advantage, but that has inflated this line too far. Steve Lutz is in his first season with the Hilltoppers. He is one hell of a coach. This man is 2/2 on making the big dance in his time in Division 1 basketball. He won the Southland in both years that he was at Texas A&M CC, and won coach of the year in the conference last season. I also love what he did in the portal. A lot of coaches just focus on stats/analytics, but he also put an emphasis on bringing in players from winning programs.
Brandon Newman is a breakout candidate this year after coming over from Purdue. I believe that his has great potential as a dominant guard. Lutz also brought in Babacar Faye from CofC. We all remember the season that Pat Kelsey and his team had a year ago. I have seen Babacar play many times as a Charleston resident. Pat Kelsey likes to use a large rotation so he was unable to carve out a role over 15 minutes as a Cougar. This will be a big year for him with elevated minutes. He recorded a double double in WKU’s opener, and I believe that is just a sign of things to come for him.
WKU'S Babacar Faye and Brandon Newman discuss Monday's season-opening win against Kentucky Wesleyan. pic.twitter.com/r9G8xAy5rC
This is more of a power rating play from me. I will not be diving deep into analytics for this one. Wichita State lost all of their double digit scorers from a season ago, and are also under a new head coach as well (Paul Mills – ORU). I believe it will take them a lot longer than a few days to be able to gel together enough to cover a spread this large against a quality WKU team.
Score Prediction: Wichita State 74 – WKU 69
UCSB -8 : Miles Norris is off to my Atlanta Hawks, but this Gauchos team is still primed for another tournament run. The main reason – Ajay Mitchell.
Mitchell will be one of the best point guards in the country all season long. It is also important that the Gauchos are going to be returning Josh Pierre-Louis with him in the backcourt. Pierre-Louis compliments his game so well, and they are always on the same page. There is also a major conference impact transfer that I am excited to see at the mid-major level. The Gauchos were able to bring in Yohan Traore from Auburn. He is a former 5-star recruit out of high school. Traore was unable to find solid footing under Bruce Pearl, but I am so damn excited to see what he can bring to one of the best mid-major programs in the country.
I am obsessed with the attention to detail on the defensive side of the ball in this program. A season ago they were 11th in the country in SQ Points Per Possession in the half-court, and 9th in the country in transition. That is as lockdown as it gets.
The coaching edge for UCSB in this one is so strong. Joe Pasternack has earned a tournament birth in 3 out of the last 4 years, and Jase Coburn is still searching for his first winning season at the D1 level. There will also be a huge home court advantage for this opener at The Thunderdome. This city is really rallying around this program and the NBA-level talent that they are producing. The Gauchos win in a comfortable double digit fashion.
Troy +9 : I love this spot for the Trojans. If you don’t recall, Troy was one of the first teams to tip-off the season. They had a Noon opener against Fort Lauderdale (shout out NCCAA) on Monday. This allowed me to pop in and catch some action in a game that I normally would never even acknowledge. Troy excelled in two key areas of the game that you would expect a Scott Cross team. They played their patented pressure defense which forced many turnovers, and they also converted many of those turnovers into opportunities in transition. Troy was 41st in the country in forcing turnovers per SQ metrics a season ago, and they were 7th in the country in offensive transition frequency. This could be a very bad matchup for an Ohio team that does not spread the floor very well. Scott Cross is a fantastic coach. He has led the Trojans to back-to-back 20 win seasons. I fully expect him to pull out all of the tricks of his pressure defense for this matchup.
I was also really impressed with true freshman, Myles Rigsby, in transition. The dude is going to be a problem in the Sun Belt for years to come (portal pending). His athleticism in the open court really impressed me in the time that I was tuned into this game. Here is a clip of one of those finishes:
As we saw with FGCU, an underdog that can win the advantage from the perimeter has a fantastic chance of getting home with a number in this range. Troy is an excellent three point shooting team. They made 255 threes a season ago and return their top two shooters in Eugene and Muhammad.
Nine points is too many. I capped this as Ohio -4.5, so there is plenty of value here at the current number. This is a Best Bet.
threepointsniper.com 