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3/11 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: AP)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 216-177

Season Best Bet Record: 69-46

3/11 Card:

Purdue -4.5 1H & o133

Texas +2

Marquette -2

Arizona PK

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Purdue -4.5 1H & o133 : Unlucky to not get home with the Boilermakers yesterday, but we won’t let that stop us for going right back to them today. This matchup edge could not be greater today. Purdue absolutely blew the doors off of Ohio State a few weeks ago. The final was 82-55. The Buckeyes had Zed Key and Brice Sensabaugh in that game as well. Key is the Buckeyes’ best interior defender, so this is going to be a Edey 30 point watch from the tip. Also, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer took a while to get acclimated to their first Big 10 tournament game yesterday for Purdue. With that first game under their belt, I believe they will play much better today on the offensive end. Loyer should have a lot of room on the perimeter to get hot. This is Ohio State’s fourth game in 4 days. I believe that they are going to really struggle on the defensive end of the court today. There just won’t be enough left in the tank with the amount of minutes played + injuries to their rotation. Purdue should get out big here and not look back. Purdue full game is worth a look as well for sure. I just have more conviction on the 1H and the over.

Score Prediction: Purdue 75 – Ohio State 63 (1H: 38 – 29)

Texas +2 : This is my Best Bet. The defensive transformation over the last week has been so impressive from the Longhorns. They are a legitimate title contender now. With a three game sample size I can definitively say that. It wasn’t just a one game aberration when they held Kansas to 59 points last weekend. They backed that performance up in the Big 12 tournament with holding Oklahoma State to 47 points, and TCU to 60 points. The team chemistry also looks very improved. Timmy Allen willed his teammates to victory from the bench yesterday. He made sure that the energy and vibes were high at all times even though he couldn’t suit up. The emergence of Disu and Bishop is also elevating this team. They are playing their best ball of the season, and they should be able to excel against an undersized KU frontcourt. I also expect Kansas to sit Kevin McCullar today. His back spasms were giving him fits yesterday and risking him to more injury today before the tournament next week is just not worth it. Kansas is comfortably a 1 seed with a win or loss today. Kansas will really miss his rebounding and toughness on the defensive end. He is the ultimate glue guy for the Jayhawks. Texas will continue their hot streak and win the Big 12 Championship today. Hook Em.

Score Prediction: Texas 75 – Kansas 70

Marquette -2 : Tyler Kolek just continues to show the country that he is the best college point guard in the game right now. People may argue that Yuri Collins is the best distributor in the country (I won’t be mad at ya), but in reality it is Tyler Kolek. This kid just makes winning plays at all times. From Kolek to Shaka, this team just has a confidence about them that no team can seem to shake. Marquette does not give a damn what you think. They are just going to go out there and beat you anyway they can. The selflessness on this team is so fun to watch. They truly do not care who gets their flowers on a given night. Sure, Marquette was happy with the regular season Big East Championship. But, this team is cocky & hungry. They want that tournament title as well to leave no doubt that they are the class of the conference. The Golden Eagles have been able to heat up the Xavier offense this season with pressure. The Musketeers have 27 turnovers in two games vs Marquette this season. With the pressure of a title on the line, I suspect that Marquette can excel in doing this again today. I think that Marquette can also dominate the glass today. Especially, if Nunge gets into foul trouble. Marquette dominated the offensive glass 15 to 4 in the last meeting. The Golden Eagles will lift the Big East trophy in the Garden.

Score Prediction: Marquette 78 – Xavier 73

Arizona PK : The Bruins backcourt will run out of gas today against a deep Arizona team. Campbell, Singleton, & Jaquez have all cleared 35 minutes the last two nights. Bailey has cleared 30 in both. With this being the third game in 3 days, I suspect we will see some heavy legs from the Bruins. They will really miss Jaylen Clark in this one. Not just from a minutes distribution standpoint, but he was a major factor in helping the Bruins even this season series the last time out before he was injured in the game. He had 11 points & 4 steals in just 15 minutes. He was definitely the catalyst in the comeback. Also, Tubelis and Ballo have been fantastic in Vegas. The Wildcats are a Top 5 team in the country when those two are playing the way they are right now. I like Arizona in a close one here.

Score Prediction: Arizona 75 – UCLA 72

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/10 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: John Amis)

Season Record: 214-174

Season Best Bet Record: 69-45

3/10 Card:

Purdue -6.5

Tennessee -5

Temple/Cincinnati u142

Oregon +6

Texas -2.5

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Purdue -6.5 : The Scarlet Knights gave the Purdue their first loss of the season this year. That will not be lost on the Boilermakers. They have also heard the noise of the country collectively now labeling them overrated. I think this will be a great chance for them to assert themselves against an inferior opponent while trying to obtain a 1 seed and showing the country that they are still elite. The important part about this matchup is that Smith and Loyer will be able to compete defensively. Rutgers is 211th in the country in offensive efficiency and that number is continuing to slide. Purdue also made the mistake of getting away from Edey in the first game. He had no issues with the Rutgers’ interior defense. He was 6-10 from the field, and 7-9 from the line. He also grabbed 5 offensive rebounds. Painter will be sure to use his biggest weapon to their advantage today. If they outlast UCLA this weekend, then they will secure a 1 seed. This feels like a wire-to-wire comfortable win for the Boilers on fresh legs.

Score Prediction: Purdue 70 – Rutgers 60

Tennessee -5 : This is my Best Bet. Rick Barnes has had massive success in this tournament since lifting this program to a national contender. The Vols have made the Final of the SEC Tournament in three out of the last four years, and won the whole thing last season. Tennessee is a veteran squad and many of those players are still on this team. This tournament winning experience is a massive advantage here over the upstart Mizzou Tigers. Also, this game is being played in Nashville. Bridgestone Arena will feel like Thompson-Boling at times. Mizzou won the only meeting between these teams earlier this season on a miraculous buzzer beater. They also hit 14 threes. An 86-85 final is extremely out of the norm for a Tennessee game. Mizzou only turned the ball over 7 times that night, and I think that we will see that number heavily rise today. They average 11.5 turnovers on the season and Tennessee is Top 20 in the country in turning their opponents over. I also expect Tennessee to dominate the glass again. The Vols are 5th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, and pulled down 15 of them against Mizzou in that last meeting. JJJ and Julian Phillips returning to full health has picked up the spirits of this team after losing Zeigler. I believe that the coaching advantage and home court atmosphere will carry the Vols to another SEC Tournament semifinal. This bet is Shot Quality approved. Below is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: Tennessee 76 – Mizzou 65

Temple/Cincinnati u142 : Both teams bring a key piece to our under today. Temple likes to slow it down and work the halfcourt offense when they can. They are 179th in tempo. Cincinnati can also play slow at times, and is a Top 90 defense in the country in regards to efficiency. The first game of this series ended on 131 and was a pace that I would expect from these two teams. The 2nd game ended on 169 points. However, there were 21 points scored in an OT frame. The game ended on 148 in regulation, but the pace was still pointing towards an under. We just saw 18 threes and 45 free throw makes in that game. These two teams will play to an under pace again today in a tournament setting.

Score Prediction: Cincinnati 70 – Temple 68

Oregon +6 : Dana Altman always pushes the right buttons in tournament play. He has made the Pac 12 Championship game in 4 out of the last 6 seasons. It is also imperative that his team performs well in the Pac12 Tournament this year because they are on the outside looking in of the NCAA Tournament field. The Ducks just may be peaking at the right time though. They have won four straight entering this game with UCLA tonight. They will need that hot form to contend with a great UCLA team. However, this is not the same UCLA team that Oregon lost to by 7 points on February 11th. The Bruins are going to be without Jaylen Clark for the remainder of the season due to a torn achilles. He was a major factor in that win over Oregon. He scored 13 points in the 70-63 win, and also recorded 4 steals. This should give Oregon confidence that they can tighten up the turnover woes that they had from the previous game, and give UCLA a run for their money. I like the Ducks to keep it close here.

Score Prediction: UCLA 69 – Oregon 66

Texas -2.5 : This was close to a Best Bet. I know that our Hornies looked great yesterday in their win over Kansas State. However, they are really going to feel the absence of Eddie Lampkin against the frontcourt of Texas. He had 14 rebounds in the two games vs Texas this season, and really served Jamie Dixon well by filling the gaps in the post to prevent Texas’ drives to the rim. Also, the Texas defense has been DOMINANT over the past two games. They held Kansas to just 59 points in their regular season finale, and then followed that up by only allowing 47 points to Oklahoma State in the Quarterfinal of the Big 12 Championship. This team is peaking at the right time and my preseason future aint looking so bad after all!

Score Prediction: Texas 75 – TCU 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/6 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Lee S. Weissman)

Season Record: 206-166

Season Best Bet Record: 67-42

3/6 Card:

UNCW/Hofstra u134.5

Furman -4

BYU/Saint Mary’s o128

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UNCW/Hofstra u134.5 : Best Bet of the night! There should be a walking pace in this one tonight. The Pride are 223rd in the country in pace, and the Seahawks are 321st. If you add a semifinal conference tournament atmosphere into the equation, I believe these teams will play even slower. Both of these teams also rank in the Top 75 in defensive efficiency. Another reason to love a low scoring affair tonight is that both teams love to take the worst shots in the game from an efficiency standpoint. Shot Quality’s data shows that UNCW takes the 13th most mid-range shots in the country, and Hofstra is at 73rd. They both also rank 302nd and 305th in the country in attacking the rim. Hofstra is 362nd out of 363 teams in free throw rate. There are a lot of factors in our favor tonight. The only trepidation is that both offenses looked awesome yesterday, but we also have to take in consideration the quality of opponent and tempo. I expect today to play much closer to their offensive norm. The market has pushed this number all of the way down to 132.5. I would still play it there, but I would not go below 132. I have this game as a 130 total.

Score Prediction: Hofstra 68 – UNCW 62

Furman -4 : The Paladins will be going dancing after tonight. Jake Stephens getting to play in the First Four is a narrative that has been floating around Twitter over the last few days, but the Moc’s defense will be sure to put that narrative to bed tonight. Chattanooga is ranked 278th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bob Richey offense had no problems defeating the Mocs twice already this season. The slashing action of Bothwell and Slawson caused all kinds of problems for Chattanooga. The Paladins had a 20-25 free throw night in both games. That is a repeatable trend that we will see again tonight. The Paladins are a safe bet to clear 20+ free throws. This is Dan Earl’s first year leading the Mocs. He was unsuccessful at reaching the tournament in his 7 years at VMI. He also did not have a winning record in any of those seasons. Bob Richey has had 20+ wins in 5 out of his 6 seasons as the head coach of Furman. He has also yet to reach the “Big Dance”, but he finally will reach the top of the SoCon mountain tonight.

Score Prediction: Furman 79 – Chattanooga 72

BYU/Saint Mary’s o128 : This is the third time these two teams will face off this year. The previous totals closed at 129.5 and 130. The matchup went well under in the first game, but cleared 130 in Moraga in the latest meeting. 136 points in that one. The pace sped up and the defensive sets were not working as effectively. Also, there were 23 made free throws in that game, compared to only 13 in the first. I trust that the free throw number will be closer to the most recent affair due to the do-or-die nature of this game for BYU. Also, the Cougars have been unable to stop Mahaney and Johnson in either contest this year. If they are able to get going tonight, we should easily cruise over this total. This bet is Shot Quality approved. Below is a preview of their Value Finder:

Score Prediction: Saint Mary’s 69 – BYU 63

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/3 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: David Eaton – Murray State Athletics)

Season Record: 197-159

Season Best Bet Record: 66-40

3/3 Card:

UNI +10 (1pm winner!!!)

Gardner Webb -4.5 (in progress)

Belmont +3 (in progress)

Murray State +11

Colorado State +2

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Murray State +11 : Best Bet of the night! The Racers are coming into this Quarterfinal matchup with Drake playing great basketball. They have won 4 out of their last 5 games, including a 28 point victory in their opening round game of Arch Madness. They were only a 1 point favorite in that game over Valpo, so the margin of victory is ultra impressive. They were dominant on both sides of the ball. The Racers forced 19 turnovers and held Valpo to 32.7% shooting on the defensive end, and made 10 threes in route to scoring 78 points on the offensive end. They also only turned the ball over 6 times. A big time performance in an opening round matchup of a tournament can propel a team to play above their means against an opponent who is playing their first game. I believe that we will see that tonight. There is no getting around the two blowouts that the Racers suffered to the Bulldogs this season, but Vegas only had Drake as a 3 point favorite in the matchup a few weeks back in Murray. The jump to 11 for a neutral site conference tournament game seems very extreme. Quincy Anderson is the X-Factor in this game. He has become a big time part of the Racers rotation in the last 5 games. He has scored in double figures in all five. Murray State will need his hot three point shooting to remain at arms length in this one for us. I am trusting him to do so after 14 made threes in those 5 games. I am not saying Murray State will win this game, but I do believe that they will be competitive enough to easily cover the 11 in a win or go home scenario. Murray State has big time performances in them. They have beaten Texas A&M, Bradley, Belmont, and several other very good teams this season. We will get an A+ effort tonight.

Score Prediction: Drake 73 – Murray State 67

Colorado State +2 : There is not much to gain for New Mexico in this game tonight. Their at-large tournament hopes are gone after suffering a 9th Mountain West loss. The last unbeaten team in the country will not make the tournament unless they win the Mountain West championship next week. The Lobos’ sights are probably already set to the conference tournament, so this is a great spot for Colorado State to sneak up on them. Hence why we see such a short spread. It is also Senior Night for the Rams. A big bulk of their impact players will be celebrated tonight. CSU has a great home court advantage with a loud student section. It should be rocking tonight to send those guys out on a positive note. The Rams have been dangerous when healthy this season, and they have taken SDSU and Boise State to the brink on this court. I think Nico Medved gets a great performance out of his seniors, and the Rams walk away with a victory.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 78 – New Mexico 76

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/2 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Kenosha News)

Season Record: 195-156

Season Best Bet Record: 66-39

3/2 Card:

UNI -4 (1pm winner!!!)

American +6.5

Middle Tennessee State +7.5

Purdue -4

Arizona/USC u155.5

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American +6.5 : This should be a very close game from start to finish. Navy was a -4.5 favorite at home to American earlier this season and suffered an outright loss. The Midshipmen did exact revenge by a double digit victory on American’s homecourt, but the free throw splits were not the norm for either team. Navy is almost dead last in the country in percentage of points from the free throw line. They are 355th out of 363. They were 21-26 from the line in that victory of American. That is not a repeatable factor tonight. Also, American was 10-19 from the line in that game. They are above 70% for the year, so that was certainly against their norm as well. I think the first matchup is more indicative of what we see tonight. I see a one possession game either way. Especially, in a conference tournament setting with two teams who play low tempo basketball.

Score Prediction: Navy 65 – American 62

MTSU +7.5 : Another spread that is too high for a low possession game. North Texas was favored in the first matchup in Murfreesboro by 3, and walked away with a 56-51 victory. North Texas relies on it’s defense and forcing turnovers, but the Blue Raiders were able to turnover the Mean Green just as much in the first meeting. The Blue Raiders are a bad matchup for UNT in my opinion. They are lengthy and athletic, and have a similar gameplan for success as North Texas does. MTSU just normally likes to do it at a quicker pace. However, North Texas was able to grind this first game to a halt and I am trusting their ability to do so at home today. The Blue Raiders will hang around long enough to cover this number. This play is supported by Shot Quality. Here is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: North Texas 61 – MTSU 56

Purdue -4 : This is my Best Bet of the night! There has not been much movement off of this line due to the KenPom predicted score of Purdue 65 – Wisconsin 61. However, I have full confidence that Purdue will win this game by more than 4 points. Purdue has stumbled as of late and their loss column has reached 5. What do the four teams that have created these problems for Purdue have in common? Athletic backcourts. The Badgers could be without Chucky Hepburn tonight, and Connor Essegian and Max Klesmit are not going to be able to athletically impose their will on Loyer and Smith. That has really been the only kryptonite for the Boilermakers. This is also an insanely juicy matchup for Zach Edey. He scored 41 points in 43 minutes last year against the Badgers. Crowl and Wahl will have no answer for him. I think the Badgers will also struggle to score tonight. They will not be able to penetrate and get their tough post baskets against this Purdue interior defense. The Hepburn injury is massive. Whether he sits or plays through the injury, it is going to expose the very poor Badger bench. Purdue is in a different class than Wisconsin. They prove it easily tonight.

Score Prediction: Purdue 70 – Wisconsin 60

Arizona/USC u155.5 : The Trojans will try to slow this game down at home. They are 155th in the country in tempo, and they know that is their path to success tonight. They allowed Arizona to get out and run a bit in the first meeting in Tuscon, and suffered a 15 point loss. The Wildcats also hit 12 triples in that game, and I do not see that being repeatable tonight. The Trojan defense has been finely tuned as we head into March. They have only allowed one team to exceed 65 points in their last six Pac-12 games. Love the under here, and expect this to be a very close game. This play is supported by Shot Quality. Here is an example of their Value Finder:

Score Prediction: Arizona 75 – USC 74

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/28 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Tony Walsh/UGAAA)

Season Record: 191-152

Season Best Bet Record: 66-37

2/28 Card:

Clemson/UVA o129.5

BC/Wake Forest o145

Georgia +2

TTU/Kansas u147.5

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Clemson/UVA o129.5 : This was close to a Best Bet. It will get the same unit size from my as my Best Bet tonight. Clemson games have been fireballs of late. In 5 of their last 6 games, both Clemson and their opponent have eclipsed the 70 point mark. The outlier was a 94-54 Clemson win over FSU. It is important to have a hot offense when traveling to Charlottesville. Making shots is the only way to pull UVA out of their pace/gameplan. This is purely anecdotal, but from watching UVA games this season they also appear to speed up when their shots are dropping. It is like the added confidence puts a pep in their step. They should have the ability to score efficiently on Clemson tonight. The Tigers are 135th in road defensive efficiency and that is dropping quickly. This is a nice bounce back spot for the Hoos. The spread is out of touch from where I would be comfortable laying the points, but I think we safely go over here and the Cavs walk away with a victory.

Score Prediction: UVA 70 – Clemson 65

BC/Wake Forest o145 : Wake Forest will easily surpass 75 points tonight. Boston College is 276th in the country in road defensive efficiency. Wake Forest is 42nd in the country in offensive efficiency, and average 79.8 ppg at the Joel. Wake Forest scored 85 points in first matchup of this series, and did not score for the final 2:15 minutes of the game. Possessions were high, and Wake Forest was able to get whatever they wanted. The total closed at 138.5 before that game. There was an obvious misstep by Vegas on this total and that is why we see such a big change to today’s game. Wake Forest’s spread and tto are worth looks as well.

Score Prediction: Wake Forest 80 – Boston College 69

Georgia +2 : This is my Best Bet of the night! Let’s make it FIVE in a row. Mike White has been itching to get revenge on Florida since the thumbnail picture of this article was taken. He thinks he was given a quick hook by the UF administration, and this is a great spot for him to exact his revenge. Florida is just not the same team without Colin Castleton. They are 0-3 since Castleton was ruled out for the season for a broken hand. Including, an 88-72 loss at Vanderbilt over the weekend. Georgia has had a mediocre season, but they have definitely been above average at home. They have a 5-3 SEC Home record with wins over Auburn, Mississippi State, & UK. Mike White had a phenomenal game plan against his former employer the first game of this series. The Dawgs built out a 13 point lead in the 1H of that game. Florida’s homecourt advantage eventually carried them to a 82-75 win in that game, but there were some solid take aways for UGA. The Dawgs outrebounded UF on the offensive glass 15-8, and that was a Florida team WITH Castleton. Georgia also got to the line 18 times and made 10 triples. The wrong team is favored tonight. White’s players will be amped up to get this win for him. I believe they have the means to do so.

Score Prediction: Georgia 75 – Florida 71

TTU/KU u147.5 : The total ended on 147 in the first matchup of this series this season. However, there is a glaring statistic pointing to us going under tonight. KU is 198th and TTU are 203rd in the country in made threes per game. However, both teams made double digit triples in the first meeting. I expect that we see both teams below 10 made threes tonight. Also, the defenses of these teams have been better of late, and Texas Tech would prefer if this were a slower paced game. Fardaws Aimaq also throws a wrench in this matchup. He did not play in the first meeting. Tech will want to spend time making sure he gets post touches, and he will improve the Red Raiders interior defense and rebounding. I think his addition to this game is great for going below the total of the first meeting. The under is my play here. This is also heavily Shot Quality approved. Below is their final score through their predictive model:

Score Prediction: Kansas 76 – Texas Tech 67

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/27 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Ben Queen – USA Today Sports)

Season Record: 189-151

Season Best Bet Record: 65-37

2/27 Card:

FGCU +3

Northern Colorado -5

WVU/ISU o134

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FGCU +3 : The wrong team is favored here. I lean more to the KenPom number of FGCU -1. It has been wrongly reported (even on the ASUN website earlier) that Queens is hosting this game tonight. It is in fact on a neutral court in Kennesaw, GA. It is also worth noting that an NCAA bid is not obtainable for Queens this season. They are still in their D1 transformation period in regards to postseason play. It is a stupid ass rule, but worth noting when capping these conference tournament games. Dunk City had a non-conference slate that led us to believe they could make some noise in the ASUN. They beat a likely tournament team in Southern Cal, and also are one of the few teams to win on St. Bonaventure’s court this season. They certainly disappointed in conference play, but they have the big performance capabilities in there somewhere. We may have saw a preamble performance to a big time conference tournament run last time out for the Eagles. They scored 62 points in the 1H against Austin Peay in their final regular season game of the season. The Eagles PG, Isaiah Thompson, has many years of NCAA Tournament experience at Purdue. I trust him leading the show for us tonight. Dunk City in a close one.

Score Prediction: FGCU 76 – Queens 74

Northern Colorado -5 : I think the Bears even up the season series with Idaho State tonight. UNC is a different animal at home. They have really struggled this season, but they are 4-1 in their last 5 in Greeley, CO. It is a tough place to travel and play. They have one of the better student sections in the Big Sky. Idaho State is 235th in the country in defensive efficiency and will have all kinds of trouble guarding Knecht and Kountz tonight. Northern Colorado will score at will and I think that Idaho State will have a hard time keeping up. The Bengals are only averaging 64.6 ppg in their last five, and that recent output just won’t cut it tonight. Also, this would be considered an ultimate let down spot. Idaho State gave Eastern Washington their first conference loss of the season over the weekend at home. Traveling to Greeley, CO after that is a tricky spot. I think the market has this one right. The Bears get a comfortable win at home. This bet is heavily Shot Quality approved. Below is a snapshot of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: Northern Colorado 77 – Idaho State 69

WVU/ISU o134 : This is my Best Bet of the night! Let’s make it four in a row. The possessions per game rankings are not where I would normally like to play an over in the mid 130s range, but I believe this number is set here for a reason. These teams cannot play defense without fouling. West Virginia is 299th in the country at fouls per possession at 26.6%, and Iowa State is 338th at 27.9%. These fouls are costly fouls. The Cyclones are 331st in the country in opponent points from free throws, and the Mountaineers are 339th. These trends were heavily impactful on the first meeting of this series this year. There were a total of 57 free throws shot in that game. Both teams also reached 50 field goal attempts. WVU’s Big 12 games are 14-2 in going over 134 points on the season. Including, the first matchup with the Cyclones. Their sporadic spirts can get a game sped up, and the fouls will certainly be there from both sides. Lastly, the Mountaineers defense really struggles on the road. They are 163rd in road defensive efficiency. Both teams are desperate for a W, and it should be a close one with a lot of freebies at the line. I love the over.

Score Prediction: Iowa State 72 – WVU 69

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/24 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: The Denver Gazette)

Season Record: 180-148

Season Best Bet Record: 62-37

2/24 Card:

Colorado State -7

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Colorado State -7 : The Best Bets have been on a cold streak since Saturday. We have fallen to 62-37 on the season. 63% is still elite, but we want to get things turned around in the right direction immediately. I know you guys are putting your hard earned money behind the Best Bets, so I am not putting them out here lightly. With that said, I believe the Rams are poised for a big win in Fort Collins tonight. Wyoming won the first matchup of this season in Laramie by a score of 58-57. However, this will not be the same Wyoming team in action tonight. They will be missing 30 of their 58 points in that game. Reynolds is out due to injury, and Anderson has left the program. We played the under in the last Wyoming game due to the injuries and departures from the program, and easily cashed. Their offense just simply cannot compete in the Mountain West in its current state. Meanwhile, Colorado State has continued to be an efficient offense throughout their struggles. Especially, in Fort Collins. They are 59th in the country in home offensive efficiency. On the season, the Rams have a 16.9/11.0 assist/turnover ratio, and are shooting 49.1% from the field. They are also shooting 36.2% from distance. That is important because the Cowboys are due for defensive regression across the board on shooting splits. A quality shooting team such as Colorado State should be able to take advantage. Below is a snapshot from the Shot Quality website. Colorado State will simply outscore a diluted Wyoming attack tonight per my numbers. I am laying the 7 with confidence.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 75 – Wyoming 62

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/23 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Madeline Bell)

Season Record: 178-147

Season Best Bet Record: 62-36

2/23 Card:

Wichita State +2

Delaware/NC A&T u149.5

Western Kentucky -4.5

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Wichita State +2 : This is my Best Bet. Let’s get another streak rolling after the bounce back W last night! Memphis could be without Kendric Davis again tonight. The Tigers’ star is still dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to miss the Houston game over the weekend. He has been seen in a walking boot every day over the past week. Some Memphis blogs seem hopeful that he will at least give it a go tonight, but I am locking in this line now under the assumption that he will not play. Regardless, Kendric Davis playing through an injury is still a feather in the cap of Wichita State. The Shockers really have improved on their play after they gave Houston a run for their money at The Roundhouse. Since that almost upset, the Shockers have won 3 of 4. This includes a win on the road at Temple. The Shockers have had a full week off since that victory. That has given them a ton of time to implement a gameplan for this Memphis game, and more importantly gave their legs a rest. A huge edge this late in the season. This is important because Memphis is 4-6-1 ATS when they are at a rest disadvantage. The Tigers are also only 5-8-1 ATS in conference play. This is a great spot for an upset behind a lively crowd at The Roundhouse, and I am trusting the Shockers to get it done.

Score Prediction: Wichita State 76 – Memphis 72

Delaware/NC A&T u149.5 : Bad number here, but I thought we were jumping in at the peak of the rise. This opened at 146. I even thought the opener was a tad high. I am assuming the push in the market is from recent final scores of these teams, but the pace in this game just is not conducive for a number this high. Delaware is ranked 225th in the country in possessions per game. NC A&T plays faster than Delaware, but they are only ranked 112th. This game is being played in Greensboro, and the under is 5-3 in CAA home games for the Aggies. These teams are just horrific from an offensive efficiency standpoint as well. The Blue Hens are ranked 188th, and the Aggies are ranked 302nd. There would need to be an outstanding outlier of pace and offensive efficiency for this game to go over, so I am trusting the data. The Shot Quality model also approves this under. Here is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: Delaware 74 – NC A&T 70

Western Kentucky -4.5 : The Hilltoppers are returning back to Diddle Arena, so this is the perfect time to step back in on them. La Tech is on a 4 game losing streak and fading quickly. WKU is in a great spot to even up this season series at home. The Toppers dropped two road games after that home winning streak that we took a ride on, but losing to Charlotte (in OT) and Rice is nothing to be ashamed of. Returning home should get this team turned back in the right direction. Dontaie Allen continues to be a sparkplug for this team. Having him in a focal scoring role has proven fruitful for the Hilltoppers. Also, Jamarion Sharp continues to be the most impactful defensive presence in the country. He leads the nation in blocks and is averaging 5.4 per game over his last five. I am comfortable laying this number tonight.

Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 75 – La Tech 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/22 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Michael Allio – AP)

Season Record: 176-144

Season Best Bet Record: 61-36

2/22 Card:

Providence/UConn o141.5

Minnesota +15.5 & o129.5

Wake Forest +6

Iowa -1

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Providence/UConn o141.5 : There is evidence from the previous game for an over in this rematch. The pace was well above what we need to clear 141.5. UConn shot 19 free throws while also attempting 63 field goals, and Providence shot 35 free throws while also attempting 49 field goals. This game simply did not go over because of poor shooting nights from both teams. UConn shot 36.5% from the field, and Providence was literally a hair better at 36.7. Vegas had the number that night at 142, but the game only ended on 134. They are keeping the number virtually the same for the rematch today, and I am excited to watch this Top 20 matchup while cashing an over. It should be a fun one.

Score Prediction: UConn 77 – Providence 70

Minnesota +15.5 & o129.5 : The Best Bet tonight is the over in this matchup. I also love the Gophers getting 15.5 points as well. We very rarely have had a double up in a game this season, but I am feeling an edge on both sides here. Dawson Garcia’s return from injury has been exactly what Minnesota has been hoping for all season long in regards to his play. The Savage, MN native scored 23 in his first game back against Penn State, and then added 18 points last time out against Illinois. Both of these games finished as single digit contests. The Gophers were getting ran out of the gym in his absence, so he was instantly a difference maker. His presence is felt mostly on the offensive end. Minnesota scored 69 points in each of these last two games. Those were the first times the Gophers had scored that many points since January 12th. The attention that he is getting is opening up the offensive game of Jamison Battle as well. If you remember from last season, Battle quite literally carried this team to some Big 10 wins. He has the freedom to do that again now that he has a capable offensive threat on the court with him at the same time. Battle scored a season high 31 points in Monday’s loss to Illinois. Maryland absolutely embarrassed Minnesota without Garcia on February 4th. An 81-46 final. So, we have a nice revenge angle here as well. While I believe Maryland will still be able to pretty much score at will, I think the Gophers will be able to keep up enough with Garcia in the lineup to cover both of these numbers for us. This matchup is also heavily Shot Quality approved. Here is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: Maryland 74 – Minnesota 63

Wake Forest +6 : I would have this game near a PK on a neutral court. I cannot justify why this number is so high. Probably due to the ass kicking that NC State delivered to UNC at PNC Arena on Sunday. However, I believe there is too much recency bias baked into this line. It will be hard for the crowd and players to give max effort once again on a mid-week turnaround against a quality opponent. Also, Wake Forest has been damn good this season in the ACC. They have a 10-6 ATS record in conference. They are also 6-4 ATS as an away team this season. These two teams met in Winston-Salem about a month ago. Wake Forest led for the majority of the contest, and then NC State surprised them with a last minute 2 point victory. This will be another dog fight. I will gladly take the 6 points.

Score Prediction: NC State 77 – Wake Forest 75

Iowa -1 : I am not quitting on the Hawkeyes… yet. They disgraced us the other night with their performance in Chicago, but I believe they have another on-paper edge again tonight. Despite the home court advantage that the Kohl Center provides, Wisconsin is 0-2-1 ATS as a home underdog this season. Iowa has also been fantastic in bounce back performances. They are 6-3 ATS following a loss this year. Wisconsin defeated Iowa in OT way back on December 11th. However, that was before the Tyler Wahl injury problems. He just cannot seem to get back to form. That will cost Wisconsin tonight because I don’t think think Wisconsin can beat Iowa without another dominant performance from Wahl. Kris Murray is a matchup nightmare for Wisconsin, and the Iowa backcourt is supremely more athletic than the Badger’s. I think this is a bad matchup for Wisconsin due to the current makeup of the teams. Iowa evens the season series tonight.

Score Prediction: Iowa 72 – Wisconsin 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!