11/7 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: UNI Athletics)

Season Record: 3-0

Season Best Bet Record: 1-0

11/7 Card:

FGCU +12

Northern Iowa +5

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FGCU +12 : I believe that Dunk City is in a for a huge year. They are my pick to earn the NCAAT bid out of the A-SUN. Pat Chambers had this team flying out of the gates last year in his first season in Fort Myers. The Eagles knocked off Southern Cal (I will never refer to them as USC. Get over it. Go Cocks) in their opener last season in impression fashion. It was not a fluky result and was graded as a Shot Quality win also:

FGCU used this momentum to get out to a 12-3 record in their first 15 games. The team struggled down the stretch and didn’t reach their full potential, but I firmly believe it will be realized this season. Chambers is returning essentially his entire roster for this year. 13 upperclassmen. I think they could get out to another hot start this year, and there is an edge in this matchup that I believe will help this team settle in for a fight in Assembly Hall. Both the point guard and head coach are Big 10 veterans. Chambers spent close to a decade as the head coach of Penn State, and Isaiah Thompson was a Boilermaker for three seasons. This experience will be vital to carry the squad through a grueling night in one of the best home atmospheres in the country. I also see an edge on the perimeter for FGCU. Chase Johnston is one of the best shot makers that we have in the game. Johnston and his teammates made 295 threes a season ago. The Eagles return over 200 of those threes this season. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers connected on 187 … but only 46 of those makes are returning for this season. I am not impressed with the roster reconstruction in Bloomington following the departures of TJD and Hood-Schifino. I have a sneaky suspicion we will see a heavy dosage of Xavier Johnson hero ball. We all know how that experience turns out.

Isaiah Thompson is listed as a GTD (I am hearing that he is going to play), but this is still a play for me at 12 even in his absence. I would be shocked if the game ever stretches over 12 for Indiana. Should be a fun one.

Score Prediction: Indiana 74 – FGCU 66

Northern Iowa +5 : We locked this one in early last night, and it was for good reason. Buy. Stock. Now. Northern Iowa is one of my favorite mid-major rosters in the country this season. Everyone is back this year. With another year of experience under their belts, this team will be contending with Drake for a Valley championship. Let’s start at the point guard position. Bowen Born is one of the best PG’s in the country. Don’t believe me? Tune into this game tonight. His basketball IQ is second to none. He reminds me of a mixture of Tyler Ulis and Storm Murphy. He is an absolute gamer and will be up for this one. Also, the Panthers are getting the heart and soul of this team back. Nate Heise was lost for the year after the 2nd game of the season a year ago. They never were able to fill his shoes. He brings energy and intensity on both ends of the court and is a clear captain of the team. Tytan Anderson is another another impressive player on this roster. He could get minutes anywhere in the country on the wing. He picked up where he left off last season in UNI’s most recent scrimmage

If you have the recent successes of North Texas in your mind and it is making you shy away, don’t fret. This is not our usual North Texas team. Grant McCasland left the program to take the head coaching job at Texas Tech. Ross Hodge has been on staff, but we have seen how that has played out before. It does not always guarantee continuity in a program. Hodge has also never been at head coach at the D1 level. He has a tough matchup on his hands going up against the decorated Ben Jacobson in his first game at the helm. This coaching edge is a huge factor in my handicap tonight. The Mean Green also lost their pillars of the last few years to the portal. Tylor Perry and Abou Ousmane will be greatly missed on this roster. It does not appear that they properly replenished their scoring abilities through the portal.

I have Northern Iowa winning the game, and this is my Best Bet of the night. The Shot Quality model also agrees with me and has 5.6 points of perceived value on a UNI ticket at the current number of 4.

Score Prediction: Northern Iowa 67 – North Texas 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

23/24 Title Futures

(photo: Villanova Athletics)

WELCOME BACK TPS COMMUNITY!!!!

I am so excited to be entering into our 4th season together! There are big things ahead this season that I can’t wait to share with you guys. More details on what that will be are coming soon..

We are going to keep the same strategy as last year when it comes to title futures. That strategy is to pick two mid-long shots in the preseason and advance them as far as possible in the tournament, and then following that up with national title pick once the bracket is released in March. Last year we advanced our preseason Creighton and Texas tickets to the Elite 8 (dangerously close to Final Four births), and then cashed our national title winning pick of UConn +1600 when the bracket was released. All three tickets afforded our community members with hedging opportunities if they chose to do so, and it was topped off with the +1600 cherry on top as One Shining Moment played in Houston.

This year we have two very quality teams that we are going to hitch our wagon to. The numbers that they are priced at in the market are asinine to me. The value will be cut in half within the first month of the season I’d suspect. These two teams have a nice mix of veteran leadership in the post, combined with highly talented backcourts. Let’s get into it!

Villanova +4600 :

Villanova is the team that I am most excited about in the country. +4600 is a bonkers number that the books are exposing themselves to. Everyone is asleep on the Wildcats after a lackluster first year under Kyle Neptune. Many pundits think that the magic left with Jay Wright. However, I don’t think these pundits were paying attention as closely as they should have at the end of the year. When Neptune was able to plug Justin Moore back into his starting five, the defense elevated to what we are used to seeing from the Wildcat program. Nova won 6 out of their last 8 regular season Big East games; including wins over Creighton and Xavier who had deep tournament runs. The only losses came at Providence (arguably the toughest place to play in the Big East) and against the national title winning, UConn Huskies. I believe that Neptune is the right man for the job. I am excited to back him this season.

The transfer portal class walking through the door is the top group in the country in my opinion. Villanova is adding TJ Bamba (Washington State), Hakim Hart (Maryland), Lance Ware (Kentucky), & Tyler Burton (Richmond). I am so excited to see Tyler Burton playing for a big time program. He is one of the mid-major players that I have admired the most over the last few years. He averaged 36.2 minutes per game last season and that resulted in the following stat line: 19.0 ppg – 7.4 rpg – 1.5 spg. His three point percentage dipped a bit, but he shot better than 36% in his previous two seasons. I suspect that the form from distance will return. He can stuff a stat sheet, but his athleticism as a defender and rebounder is where I think he will be a huge difference maker for this Wildcat team. I am also excited for the addition of TJ Bamba. Villanova lacked a true point guard last season. They have one in Bamba. I am excited for him to get into the Neptune/Villanova system. We know that he can score inside and out with his 6’5 frame, but I believe there is a lot to unlock with his facilitating. Hart and Ware will be welcomed additions to Eric Dixon in the paint. This team should be excellent on the glass, and will be a Top 20 defensive team. Book it.

At a +4600 number, you really just need a team to make it to the Sweet 16 if you are aiming to hedge. I believe this team has real Final Four potential, and this may be my favorite preseason future that I have ever placed based on the value. I believe that Villanova will compete for the Big East title this season, and will squarely be on the 2 or 3 line.

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Saint Mary’s +4700 :

It is Aidan Mahaney – Naismith Player of the Year – SZNNNNNN!! With the departure of Logan Johnson, this is fully Mahaney’s backcourt now. Randy Bennett is a wizard in development in the offseason with his guards. The freshman to sophomore bump is usually massive. Coming off of a 13.9 ppg freshman year, I believe that Mahaney is in line to exceed 20+ ppg this season. Mahaney has two key veterans returning with him this year in Alex Ducas and Mitchell Saxen. Ducas is one of the better on-ball defenders in the country, and Saxen has been a constant force on the glass during his time with the Gaels. There is belief that Augustus Marciulionis is going to move into the backcourt with Mahaney now that Johnson is gone. He will not bring as much offensive firepower, but he is on that short list of top on-ball defenders in the country with Ducas. This team is going to be hell to score against.

https://x.com/ltu_basketball/status/1683537318148227084?s=20

Ignore the missed bunny, but this is the type of pressure that you will expect to see from Marciulionis this season. The Gaels earned a 5 seed into the tournament last year with a 27-7 record. Many thought they could have cracked the 4 line. I suspect that their record will be better this season. They welcome Utah and New Mexico into Moraga, and really don’t play any tough out of conference road tests. They have a few big neutral site games, but I would have them winning all of them outside of Boise State in what I would consider a toss up. That is going to be a slugfest. Can I go ahead and take the under? Assuming they take care of business in conference as they did last year, I think we could be looking at more of a 4 or 5 loss team entering the NCAA tournament, and competing with Gonzaga for the regular season WCC title. That would have us in the range of a 3-4 seed. I think that a 3 seed is the most likely outcome for the Gaels this year. If you are going to give me a +4700 ticket on a team that will be pushing the 30 win mark, I will gladly add that to my portfolio.

4/3 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Gregory Shamus – Getty Images)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 248-188

Season Best Bet Record: 77-49

NCAA Tournament Record: 27-10 (Best Bet: 7-2)

4/3 Card – Special Player Prop Edition:

*Disclaimer: These plays will not be added to the season/tournament record. We haven’t all year and do not want to skew the record now.*

Alex Karaban o7.5 points -119

Andre Jackson Jr. u0.5 threes made -105

Keshad Johnson o4.5 rebounds -108

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Alex Karaban o7.5 points : Danny Hurley has put his ultimate trust in this 6’8 freshman. Karaban is tied for 2nd on the team in minutes throughout the season, and has played 29.4 minutes per game in this tournament. Since March 1st, Karaban has cleared the 7.5 point threshold in 7 out of 9 games. More importantly, Karaban has made at least two three pointers in 7 out of those 9 games. He is now at 40.4% from distance on the season. When you pair that with his 48.1 FG% and 81.8 FT%, it is easy to make the claim that he is one of the most efficient shooters in the country. The upside for minutes played and the potential for three pointers makes this a play for me tonight.

Andre Jackson Jr. u0.5 threes made : This is a glaring weak spot in Andre Jackson’s game. He is only a 28.4% three point shooter on the season. Teams have been daring him to shoot them, but the UConn staff has developed a great game plan for Jackson to turn into a facilitator in those situations instead of letting them fly. Jackson has only made one three in the last 4 tournament games. That is on 5 attempts. With Jackson basically only shooting one three per game as of late, that makes this an excellent play. Also, the SDSU three point defense has been documented many times throughout this tournament. It is a real thing. Opponents only shoot 28.1% from three against them. Jackson may not even attempt a three tonight. If he does, I like our chances for a miss.

Keshad Johnson o4.5 rebounds: Keshad Johnson has been playing the most minutes of any frontcourt player for the Aztecs as of late. He is averaging close to 25 minutes per game since the Sweet 16 game vs Alabama. He has grabbed at least 5 rebounds in all three of those games. The stat that I love from Keshad is that he averages 1.5 offensive rebounds per game this season. I believe there is a great path to 5 rebounds tonight with that type of effort on both ends of the court. UConn rebounds very well as a team, but Keshad might be the most athletic guy on the court outside of Andre Jackson Jr. I see a great path for over 4.5 rebounds tonight.

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

4/1 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Westwood One)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 246-188

Season Best Bet Record: 76-49

NCAA Tournament Record: 25-10 (Best Bet: 6-2)

4/1 Card:

FAU +3

UConn 1H -3

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FAU +3 : I know a lot of you were itching for the write-up earlier in the week, but I was waiting out for this gift that we were given on this Friday morning. The Owls have just touched +3 at Caesars and a few others. I will be locking in now for my Best Bet. I think the Owls win this game, but having a full three points in my pocket makes me feel even better. I would not call this a “comfortable” matchup by any means, but FAU will be coming into this game more confident that they can attack this defense given their recent success over Tennessee. The Aztecs play a similar style of defense to the Vols. They really pack the paint and try to use their size as an advantage, and then close out aggressively with their perimeter length. The way you defeat teams like this is with spacing and knockdown shooters. FAU continues to be one of the best teams in spacing the floor in the country. They are ranked 6th in the country in that metric coming into the game. They are also the 16th most efficient three point shooting team in the country. FAU is rotating 7 guards in 4 lineup spots, so they are always fresh and coming at you in waves. The Owls are also a top quadrant team when it comes to rebounding. SDSU will not be able to impose their will on the glass. Tennessee & KState learned that the hard way. This will be a lower total, and a close game. Give me the three points. If the line movement starts heading the other way, I would not play this below 2. Below is a snapshot from Shot Quality. Use promo code “SNIPER” for 30% off of all packages.

Score Prediction: FAU 67 – SDSU 65

UConn 1H -3 : Miami has had a fantastic run to get to the Final Four. Their shot making has been exceptional, and there is no doubting their ability on the offensive end. However, the defense remains a significant liability. They are 198th in the country in defensive efficiency. Their first halves are somehow rated out even worse. Miami ranks 258th in the country in opponents points per game in the 1H. The highly efficient UConn offense will be ready to pounce on this weakness. The Huskies rank 7th in the country in points per game in the 1h at 39.4 points per game. Also, UConn’s exceptional defense grades out well in the 1H. They rank 29th in the country in opponents points per game in the 1H. Miami will have to be very cautious with fouls early in this game. Especially in the front court. There is no depth and they won’t be able to risk a player receiving 3 fouls in the 1H. Look for Dan Hurley to press the issue by attacking the rim to exploit that. If Omier gets in foul trouble early, this could get ugly. I also like UConn full game -5.5, but will get out of this one early and pull for our +1600 pre-tournament future to make it to the title game without having to lay the points.

Score Prediction: 1H UConn 38 – Miami 32

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/26 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: AP)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 245-187

Season Best Bet Record: 76-48

NCAA Tournament Record: 24-9 (Best Bet: 6-1)

3/26 Card:

San Diego State +2.5

Miami/Texas 1H u70

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SDSU +2.5 : If this isn’t your first time following me, then you know that I have a Creighton future that I picked up in the preseason – 28/1. However, this is a not a hedge. My pick on SDSU was made through the lens of not considering my future ticket. I believe that the Aztecs have a real shot here. The biggest reason? Defense. I spotlighted the Aztecs defense in the Sweet 16 write-up when we backed SDSU against Alabama. They were 15th in the country in defensive efficiency throughout the season, and 1st in NCAA tournament play to that point. They backed that the hell up. They held the explosive Alabama offense to 64 points and retained their top spot in the tournament as the best defense. Their perimeter defense was on full display. They are #3 in the country in opponent three point percentage, and held the Tide to just 3-27 shooting from distance. If they are able to take the perimeter game away from Creighton, the Jays are going to be in a world of hurt. Dutcher is such an excellent defensive coach. I am going to repost the interview below that I shared in the last article. In a “one day to prepare” turnaround, I also think SDSU has an edge here. Creighton is a much easier prep after facing Alabama, than it is going to be for McDermott and his staff to go from Princeton to SDSU. Completely different styles of basketball. It is always nice when the Shot Quality model agrees with my picks. Below is a snapshot of their matchup breakdown. I had this game as a PK. I will take the 2.5 points here.

Score Prediction: San Diego State 68 – Creighton 67

Miami/Texas u70 : This is my Best Bet! A lot of the verbiage will be the same in this post as it was against Xavier, but the Texas 1H defense is the gift that keeps on giving. Texas’ 1H defense has been ELITE in their now 7 game winning streak. Here are their past 7 defensive performances in the 1H: Kansas 24 points, Oklahoma State 26 points, TCU 26 points, Kansas 33 points, Colgate 32 points, Penn State 23 points, Xavier 25 points. That is a 27 point average for their opponents in the 1H on this hot streak. Similarly to Xavier, the Texas frontcourt depth will be able to swallow up Omier as they did with Nunge. Rice, Hunter and Carr are very engaged on the defensive end and they are not going to give Pack and his teammates the same room from distance as they had against Houston. I am still in shock over that Houston defensive performance. That will puzzle me for a long time. It is also worth repeating again that the Texas defense does trend down after halftime, so I am not as confident in a full game play. We will get under the number in the 1H of this one and get out of there. If you are looking for a full game lean, Shot Quality supports a full game under. Below is a snapshot of their matchup breakdown:

Score Prediction: 1H Texas 35 – Miami 31

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/25 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Frank Franklin II – AP)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 243-187

Season Best Bet Record: 75-48

NCAA Tournament Record: 22-9 (Best Bet: 5-1)

3/25 Card:

FAU +2

UConn 1H -1

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FAU +2 : This is my Best Bet. Florida Atlantic is going to the Final Four. The haters are going to be furious, but the college basketball enthusiasts know how great this team is. There are a copious amount of tickets on Kansas State because people “want” Markquis Nowell to make a Final Four (I do too). The Wildcats are a super public play today. I am seeing 71% of tickets are currently on K-State. However, FAU is built to defend this Nowell playmaking style of offense. Florida Atlantic is 4th in the country in opponent assists per game. They only allow 8.2 per contest. The Owls are equipped to defend off-ball against the Wildcats when Nowell is trying to find cutters. Nowell was able to find this success consistently in their Sweet 16 game, but that is because Michigan State is horrific in defending off-ball and allowing opponent assists. The Spartans rank 203rd in that category. FAU should also find some success on the glass here. Kansas State continues to get obliterated in that metric this tournament. Meanwhile, the Owls are coming off of a game where they went toe-to-toe with Tennessee on the glass. I will share the main Shot Quality page again for FAU below. They have a stat profile that is built for tournament play. I believe that they will shock the world and head to Houston for the Final Four.

Score Prediction: FAU 74 – Kansas State 71

UConn 1H -1 : Gonzaga’s defense continues to be horrific. It will come back to bite them today. UCLA simply ran out of gas from that frenetic pace. The injuries caught up with the Bruins, and Gonzaga was able to pull away in the end. Mick probably should have read my write-up for that game (ha!). However, what have we seen from Gonzaga throughout this season and tournament? Their defense gets blasted in the 1H. The Zags rank 217th in the country in opponent 1H points per game. They allowed 36 points to Grand Canyon in R64, 38 points to TCU in the R32, and 46 to UCLA in the Sweet 16. Few is able to provide some adjustments at halftime to make them a tad (heavy on the tad) bit more competitive, but the Zags are just completely lost on that end of the court when the ball is tipped until the break. This UConn offense is HUMMING right now and should be able to take full advantage of that. The Huskies are 7th in the country in 1H scoring. They also have length and physicality to throw at Timme that UCLA was unable to do. I certainly do not see him reaching 30 points today. I also lean UConn for the full-game spread, but I believe that the edge is greater in the 1H due to the putrid Gonzaga 1H defense.

Score Prediction: 1H UConn 38 – Gonzaga 34

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/24 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Kevin C. Cox – Getty Images)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 240-186

Season Best Bet Record: 75-47

NCAA Tournament Record: 19-8 (Best Bet: 5-0)

3/24 Card:

San Diego State +7.5

Houston -7

Princeton 1H +5.5

Xavier/Texas 1H u70

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San Diego State +7.5 : Brian Dutcher has been very deliberate about what the Aztecs’ plan is going to be tonight. This was a quote from his pre-game presser – “If we can turn it into a half court game — and this goes for any game, Mountain West games — I like our chances.” He has no interest in running up and down with Bama in this game. He knows that his offense is built to perform well in the halfcourt, and that his defense has a better chance of finding success if Alabama is not in transition and running downhill. This Aztec defense is elite. They are 15th in the country in defensive efficiency, and have tightened the screws even more recently. They have the #1 defensive efficiency in the tournament to this point. Say what you will about the seed lines that they have faced, but CofC and Furman have elite offenses. Charleston ended their season 21st in the country in offensive efficiency, and Furman finished 6th. Comparatively, Alabama ranks 34th. Now, I am not saying that CofC or Furman pose a bigger threat than Alabama .. but, I will say that this defense has the ability to make life tough for the Tide. Defensive intensity is in the DNA of SDSU. Below is a quote from Dutcher on how he views defense. I believe that SDSU will slow the pace & perform well enough on the defensive end to get us within the number here. This bet is also Shot Quality approved. See below for a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: Alabama 71 – SDSU 67

Houston -7 : This is my Best Bet! This is a very bad matchup for the Canes. I believe that Houston is going to wear them out on both sides of the floor. It needs to be said – Miami’s defense is just flat out not good. The Hurricanes are ranked 181st in the country in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Houston is the 4th ranked team in the country in offensive efficiency. The Cougars are going to put up an impressive number here. There is very little interior rim protection for the Canes. I am looking specifically at the Jarace Walker vs Jordan Miller matachup. Walker has a few inches and a 50+ pound advantage on Miller. Jarace is also the better athlete. Miller is going to have trouble keeping Walker off of the glass, and is basically going to have to give up some free attacks at the rim to avoid foul trouble. There is also a big matchup edge here defensively for Houston. The Cougars are 1st in the country in defensive efficiency. What is shocking is that Shot Quality shows that they are even getting a bit unlucky on that end of the floor (see below). With their size and interior defense, Miami’s only path to victory in this game would be to have a monster performance from deep. A lot of people are pointing to this and the shooting prowess of the Miami guards. However, you just don’t get good looks against this Houston team. They are 2nd in the country in 3pt % defense. Their perimeter defense is elite. Maybe more importantly, Houston is just going to dominate this game on the glass. Miami is only 157th in the country in keeping their opponents off of the offensive glass, and Houston ranks 4th in the country in offensive rebounding %. If Omier gets in any kind of foul trouble, this game will not be even competitive. Lastly, beware of the sexy public underdog here. 65% of the tickets are on Miami currently. However, the line has risen from Houston -6.5 at the open, to Houston -7.5 as of now. The spread is moving the opposite way of the percentage of tickets. You know what do do.

Score Prediction: Houston 76 – Miami 64

Princeton 1H +5.5 : Princeton is going to be in this game for a bit. They may not cover the full game spread, but I am comfortable in backing them in the 1st half. The biggest reason? Creighton is not built to create havoc for an inferior opponent. The Blue Jays rank 356th in the country in turning over their opponents. Princeton is also pretty good at holding on to the ball anyways. They are 74th in the country in not committing turnovers. Princeton can also handle their own on the glass. They are 17th in the country in defensive rebounding %. Granted, a lot of this is against an undersized Ivy League. However, it shows their commitment to not allowing free points to their opponents. I think Kalkbrenner will be able to have his way on the glass (purely from a size standpoint), but the Tigers should do well on the glass against the other Jays. Due to these turnover/rebounding statistics, I have come to the conclusion that Princeton will get off a very similar number of shots as Creighton. At least, early in the game. Also, Princeton has a great track record of competitive starts in tournament play in the first half: Down 1 to Penn in Ivy Semi, Up 4 on Yale in Ivy Final, Down 1 to Arizona in R64, Up 7 on Mizzou in R32. This team is not slipping behind and having to fight back. I believe they will be within this number when we hit the half.

Score Prediction: 1H – Creighton 33 – Princeton 30

Xavier/Texas 1H u70 : Texas’ 1H defense has been ELITE in this 6 game winning streak. Here are their past 6 defensive performances in the 1H: Kansas 24 points, Oklahoma State 26 points, TCU 26 points, Kansas 33 points, Colgate 32 points, Penn State 23 points. That is a 27.3 point average for their opponents in the 1H on this hot streak. Outside of Boum, I think Xavier may have a hard time getting out to a hot start. Nunge is going to have a lot of problems with the depth of the Texas frontcourt, and Carr & Rice can put the clamps on Kunkel and Claude. The Texas defense does trend down after halftime, so I am not as confident in a full game play. We will get under the number in the 1H of this one and get out of there. If you are looking for a full game lean, Shot Quality supports a full game under. Here is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown. Use promo code “SNIPER” for 30% off of all membership packages at shotqualitybets.com

Score Prediction: 1H – Texas 35 – Xavier 31

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/23 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Sports Illustrated)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 237-185

Season Best Bet Record: 74-47

NCAA Tournament Record: 16-7 (Best Bet: 4-0)

3/23 Card:

Kansas State +2

UConn -3.5

FAU +5.5

Zags/UCLA u146

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Kansas State +2 : The “Little Kid” Markquis Nowell busted Coach Cal’s ass on the way to this Sweet 16 matchup. The NYC native was not going to be denied his chance for glory in the Garden. Now that Nowell and the Cats achieved their initial goal of getting the Mecca, I believe that they have the tools to take down Izzo and the Spartans. If you are thinking that Izzo will be a difference maker, have no fear. His March experience has been baked into this line. Kansas State opened as a 2 point favorite, and now sit as 2 point dogs. This should at worst be a pick’em, so I will gladly take the 2 points here. We can talk about the playmaking of Markquis Nowell, or the shot making of Keyonte Johnson .. but I want to talk about the Kansas State defense. I love the intensity that we have seen from the Wildcats’ defense. They have forced 32 turnovers in the NCAA Tournament so far. It was the difference in the Kentucky game. They got blasted on the boards, but their defense was able to keep them in the game. Their pressure defense is aggressive and precise, and they are elite in transition on the fastbreak. They are also due for some positive improvement on their defensive shooting percentage splits (listed below). Meanwhile, the Michigan State offense is due for some offensive regression on their shooting percentages. I am betting on Kansas State to win a close one behind their pressure defense.

Score Prediction: Kansas State 70 – Michigan State 67

UConn -3.5 : Our Huskies were the most impressive team of the opening week of the tournament. I mentioned it in a tweet, but they just look so damn explosive. They can attack you from every level, and the deep rotation is full of quality players. The 2nd unit never seems to miss a beat. I believe that the attack will be similar tonight to the one they implemented against Saint Mary’s. They will be able to use Sanogo and Clingan to bully the Hogs in the post. Arkansas will finally feel their early season loss of Trevon Brazile in this tournament. Kamani Johnson and the Mitchell brothers just have no hope of containing the frontline of the Huskies. Especially, with Andre Jackson canceling out Jordan Walsh from a wing perspective. Arkansas was able to complete a comeback against an undersized KU frontcourt by dominating the offensive glass 15-7. I can assure you, that will not happen tonight. UConn is the best rebounding team in the country. Also, UConn is just the most complete team in the country in my opinion. Below is a quick snapshot of the stats that I used to come to that conclusion before the tournament even started. The Huskies march on the the Elite 8 rather easily tonight.

Score Prediction: UConn 75 – Arkansas 67

FAU +5.5 : This is my Best Bet. FAU is a very live dog here. I actually have them winning a close one. We have been all over Tennessee in the first two rounds. Including, the sweet, sweet victory over Duke. However, this FAU team is constructed to give Tennessee similar problems to the ones that caused them to suffer defeats throughout this season. The Tennessee defense is susceptible to slipping in efficiency when you spread them out. They can’t lean on their size, and their ball screen defense to get out to three point shooters is not strong at all. I learned that the hard way in the SEC Tournament when I was on the Vols against Mizzou. Mizzou was able to space Tennessee out and use their athleticism to get dunks and open threes. The Tigers were able to make 10 threes in that game. Mizzou is 17th in the country in offensive efficiency. Comparatively, FAU is coming into this Sweet 16 matchup ranked 13th in offensive efficiency. They will be able to use their guards and spacing to get a lot of the same looks that Mizzou did against Tennessee. As you can see below on a screenshot of the FAU Shot Quality team profile, they are proficient at spacing and nailing down three balls. I am still higher on the Vols than most, but this is a bad matchup for their personnel. The Owls move on to the Elite 8!

Score Prediction: FAU 67 – Tennessee 65

Gonzaga/UCLA u146 : It is going to behoove Mick Cronin to slow this game to a crawl. The Bruins are already without Jaylen Clark, and they are going to be playing this game with a hobbled David Singleton and Adem Bona. With knowing how athletic and explosive the Zags are, UCLA is going to have to find a way to slow this game down to give their defense a chance to shine in the halfcourt. They are not equipped to run and gun with the current state of their roster. This isn’t out of the norm for the Bruins though. They are 247th in the country in tempo. They welcome a slower pace of game anyways, so they will have no problem putting that stamp on the game tonight. Look for Mick to throw some half-ass three quarter court pressure to get the shot clock to around 20 when Gonzaga is starting their offense on a regular basis. This is purely a tempo play for me. I think that both offenses can score in the halfcourt fairly easily here, but Mick Cronin will hopefully slow this one down enough to get us below this total. No OT plz.

Score Prediction: Gonzaga 71 – UCLA 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/14 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Haley Boehm)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 221-177

Season Best Bet Record: 70-46

3/14 Card:

Toledo +7.5

Bradley +3.5

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Toledo +7.5 : This is my Best Bet. The market has definitely agreed with my early play here, and the line has dropped to 6 at most books. I think it is still good to play there. This will be a one possession either way in my opinion. What is Michigan’s desire to put out their best performance tonight? They will be playing in a very sleepy Crisler Center in a tournament they wanted no part of being in. Hunter Dickinson even used the NIT selection show as a comedic bit on his podcast, Roundball. Meanwhile, Toledo is full of veteran players who are pissed off after losing in the MAC Final. However, the NIT isn’t beneath these guys. Tod Kowalczyk has said his guys are locked in and eager to prove themselves by brining home a NIT championship. Also, let’s be honest here.. Dennis, Millner and Shumate would all start for this Michigan team. RayJ Dennis is 30th in the country in ppg (19.7), and 16th in assists (5.7). One of the most underrated point guards in the country. Michigan ranks 113th in the country in defensive efficiency, and the high powered Toledo offense should have their way against this average defense. Here is also a great stat about the Michigan interior defense from Shot Quality – “Toledo Finishing at the Rim Frequency is 18th. They are 4-1 ATS & to the over against teams ranked between 211-280 at defending this playtype. Michigan ranked 275.” The SQ model agrees with my side and has this as a Michigan 4 point win. Use Promo Code: SNIPER for 30% off all packages on their site!

Score Prediction: Michigan 78 – Toledo 76

Bradley +3.5 : This is a bad matchup for Wisconsin. Bradley is Wisconsin JR. from a playstyle standpoint. The Braves run many of the same offensive sets as the Badgers. They also play at about the same pace. The Badgers are 335th in tempo, and Bradley is 317th. Wisconsin ran into problems against teams who also like to slow the game down throughout their Big 10 season. They were 1-4 straight up against Maryland, Northwestern and Rutgers who all love to play a slow style of ball. This is also the same scenario as the Toledo/Michigan game. A mid-major who is hungry after losing their conference title game vs. a Big 10 team who could not give two shits about being there. I think that Wisconsin will also struggle with the versatility of Mast, Leons and Henry. Crowl is going to be lost following around whoever Gard decides to match him up with. Wisconsin had a woeful performance in that do-or-die Big 10 tournament opener against an undermanned Ohio State team, and I just do not see them getting off of the mat here. I have Bradley winning a close one in a low possession game.

Score Prediction: Bradley 65 – Wisconsin 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!