1/26 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Darren Yamashita, USA Today)

1/26 Card:

Michigan State +3  (8:00pm ET – FS1)

Saint Joe’s 1H +1.5  (8:30pm – ESPN2)

Cal -2.5  (10:00pm – FS1)

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Michigan State +3 : Betting against the Badgers at the Kohl Center is usually not a recipe for success. That is not a secret. Yet, we only see a 3 point spread with a #13 ranked Wisconsin welcoming in an unranked Michigan State. The spread is telling in my opinion. Let’s get into why.

Is Malik Hall back?! I believe Malik Hall is back.

The Spartans are coming off of three consecutive Big 10 wins in which Malik has scored in double figures. He is the X-Factor. The Spartans are 8-3 this season overall when he scores in double figures. The consistency finally seems to be there to expect him to score in double figures every night. Tom Izzo has taken notice. Hall is averaging 32 minutes per game in his last 4 after averaging 24 minutes per game in the 4 games prior. This Spartan team can reach their preseason hype with Hall playing this way.

Wisconsin is 7-1 in the Big 10. A phenomenal start to the season. However, they are surviving a little too dangerously for my liking. Shot Quality has graded them out with losses in 3 out of their last 4 games. With Sparty on the ascension (4 straight SQ wins), I think they can come into the Kohl Center and pull off the upset. Michigan State was a 6 point favorite in East Lansing when these teams met in December. That valuation is more in line with what I believe these teams are. Give me the 3.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 69 – Wisconsin 67

Saint Joe’s 1H +1.5 : I was able to dive deeper into research with the short slate tonight, and uncovered a huge 1H edge in this matchup. Fire and ice in regards to starts to the game in A-10 play for these teams.

Saint Joe’s 1H results in A10 (4-2):

  • Joe’s 36 – URI 30 (+6)
  • Joe’s 43 – SLU 33 (+10)
  • Loyola 39 – Joes 36 (-3)
  • Joe’s 42 – La Salle 29 (+13)
  • Joe’s 40 – Duquesne 38 (+2)
  • UMass 42 – Joe’s 38 (-4)

Bonnies 1H results in A10 (2-4):

  • Bonnies 44 – VCU 36 (+8)
  • Richmond 28 – Bonnies 23 (-5)
  • Fordham 44 – Bonnies 39 (-6)
  • Bonnies 51 – URI 25 (+26)
  • George Mason 33 – Bonnies 27 (-6)
  • Duquesne 22 – Bonnies 15 (-7)

The Hawks are consistently in games in the 1H and are most of the time entering the half with the lead in conference play. Conversely, there have been 4 games for the Bonnies in the A-10 in which they were down 5 or more at the break. Saint Joe’s also had very good starts in their “step-up” games out of conference. They led Villanova by 8 at the break in route to their win over the Wildcats, and were down 3 at Rupp in a game where they took UK to OT. I believe in the guard play of this team and I trust the 1H data that we have uncovered. Give me the 1.5 here.

Score Prediction: 1H Saint Joe’s 35 – St. Bonaventure 33

Cal -2.5:  We are trusting Cal to get us home tonight in this future ACC rivalry game (so weird). The Bears are finally healthy and are playing fantastic ball. This is a sleeping Shot Quality giant that may have just woken up..

Cal is 34th (!!!) in the Shot Quality adjusted overall rating. Yes, the Cal Bears. Mark Madsen is a phenomenal coach and he finally has the health to have this team firing on all cylinders. Not many teams can claim a Top 40 offense and defense in the adjusted SQ rating. Shot Quality expects Cal to be at 12-7 this season even with the injuries that they have endured. This is not a team you want to catch right now in conference play.

Also, Jaylon Tyson has turned into an absolute HOOPER in Berkely.

https://twitter.com/ClayAtki/status/1749251705936445692?s=20

His production is being backed up by Shot Quality analytics. Tyson is currently in the 92nd percentile in the country in shot making. Here is where he ranks elsewhere:

Tyson has the Bears rolling. Cal has won three out of their last five Pac 12 games, including wins over Colorado and Washington State. I am going to trust the data + the hot play and side with them tonight in this rivalry game. This is my Best Bet. Go Bears.

Score Prediction: Cal 82 – Stanford 75

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

1/24 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)

1/24 Card:

UVA -4  (7:00pm ET – ACCN)

Iowa -5  (7:00pm – BTN)

Alabama -2.5  (7:30pm – ESPN)

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UVA -4: Tony Bennett may just have the Hoos rounding into form. The key to the recent success? Jordan Minor.

I highly recommend checking out the article above written by Dan Siegel. He illustrates what Minor has brought to the pack line defense of late. His physical presence has also elevated Ryan Dunn on the help side as well in my opinion. Minor has also scored in double figures in the last two. Tony Bennett is being rewarded heavily for the uptick in minutes that he is giving to Minor. Difference maker.

UVA’s 5 losses this season have been absolute stinkers. There is no doubt about it. However, all of these stinkers have come on the road and one neutral site. The Hoos are an impressive 8-2 ATS at home this season and are undefeated straight up. This is even without Jordan Minor having a role in the rotation outside of the most recent home win against the Hokies. John Paul Jones Arena will be the defended tonight.

This number has taken off overnight & this morning. Thankfully we locked in at -4. We should have phenomenal CLV by the time this game tips off. This is my Best Bet. Below is a preview of the SQ Value Finder Tool for this matchup:

Score Prediction: Virginia 70 – NC State 60

Iowa -5 : We suffered a bad beat on the Terps over the weekend. We had a +1.5 ticket in College Park vs Michigan State and lost by a score of 61-59. Jahmir Young’s toe on the line on the final make of the game was the difference in us covering and losing. However, Maryland was quite lucky to be in position to win that game. There are some worrisome characteristics in this team that Iowa can take advantage of.

Jahmir Young was a complete disaster at the end of the first and 2nd half in taking care of the basketball. You cannot give the ball away freely, especially in crunch time. He had 7 turnovers on the day and that was a major factor in Maryland losing the game. They lost the turnover battle to Sparty 18-8. Iowa comes into tonight 5th in the country in turnover rate on offense. Maryland ranks 211th in that stat. I expect another beating in the turnover department for the Terps tonight.

Iowa also has a sizeable advantage from behind the arc tonight. The Hawkeyes are 14th and 27th in Off of the Dribble and Catch & Shoot 3PT play-types on offense. They do a lot of this damage in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They always have under Fran. Maryland flat out cannot shoot. The Terps are 291st in the country in made three pointers per game. This is a major edge in my handicap tonight.

Iowa gets it done tonight behind a BIG 10 home court advantage in Iowa City. Lay the points.

Score Prediction: Iowa 79 – Maryland 70

Alabama -2.5:  I am so excited for this game tonight. This will be one of the most electric atmospheres of the 23/24 season. The Tide will roll behind the hostile home court advantage at Coleman.

Alabama comes into tonight’s game 7-2 ATS at home. That is the best home ATS record in the SEC. The Tide are coming off of two wins against South Carolina and Mizzou in which they won by a combined 45 points. This home court advantage is real. It will be turned up even more by the animosity that a game against Auburn brings.

Alabama’s offense is the real deal. They are currently rated the #2 overall offense in the country per the Shot Quality adjusted offensive rating. The Tide also rank Top 10 in PPP for EVERY play-type that SQ monitors:

Auburn is due for major regression on defense (0.94 -> 1.02 in PPP) and I suspect that we will see a lot of that correct itself tonight in Tuscaloosa.

The Tigers have only played three road games this season. They are 2-1 with a loss at Appalachian State. The majority of this hot streak they are on has come at Neville Arena. This is a great spot for Alabama to take advantage. Roll Tide Roll.

Score Prediction: Alabama 84 – Auburn 77

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

1/18 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Erick Doxey Photography)

1/18 Card:

Gonzaga -11.5 & over 155.5  (10:00pm ET – ESPN+)

Long Beach State -1.5  (10:00pm – ESPN+)

Washington State/Stanford under 146.5 (11:00pm ET – Pac12)

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Gonzaga -11.5 & over 155.5 : I love this combo tonight. We have the pace and matchup edges that we need to walk out of Malibu 2-0.

These two faced off two weeks ago at the Kennel. The Zags steamrolled Pepperdine by a score of 86-60. The total in that game closed at 156.5. Pepperdine’s 32.8% shooting from the field + a slower pace near the end of the game in a 30 point blowout were the reasons for this. I believe that Pepperdine has a chance to improve on their scoring tonight. The Waves are 29th in pace and that should be ramped up behind a hype home crowd. A Ryan Nembhard led Gonzaga offense will welcome this pace. I also expect Pepperdine to hit double digit threes tonight in their home gym. The Zags rank 277th in Open 3 rate on defense and Pepperdine is 22nd in efficiency from 3.

Gonzaga is a terrible matchup for Pepperdine defensively. I expect another blowout tonight. Pepperdine is 350th in frequency of shots allowed at the rim and 318th in regards to PPP defending them. The Zags are 22nd in PPP on attacking the rim. That is their bread and butter this year without any real deep threats. Gonzaga was 24/38 inside the three point arc against Pepperdine in the previous affair. Also, Anton Watson is playing the best basketball of his career. He was the lone bright spot in Gonzaga’s loss to Santa Clara last time out. This is a great matchup for him to continue this great run.

Gonzaga is coming off of a loss with something to prove. I trust them to take advantage of the paint and cover the number tonight. It was set too low. They closed at -20.5 at the Kennel. My Best Bet lies with the over. I believe the Pepperdine pace and three point shooting easily gets us over the total tonight. Let’s get a combo 2-0 winner here.

Score Prediction: Gonzaga 89 – Pepperdine 74

Long Beach State -1.5 : This is the first stop in a Rainbow Warriors’ road trip to Cali. They stumbled in their most recent road trip at Cal Northridge. I suspect another loss is coming tonight.

Hawaii has a very solid defense, but I fear for their frontcourt tonight. The Rainbow Warriors rank 326th in volume of shots allowed attacking the rim per Shot Quality analytics. That is music to Long Beach’s ears. Shot Quality analytics show that the Beach are ranked 32nd in efficiency attacking the rim. Long Beach is also 53rd in the country in drawing opponent personal fouls per possession. There is no depth behind da Silva and McKoy if they were to get in foul trouble. This is a strong edge for LBSU.

Hawaii has struggled on the road in conference play over the years and I am happy to jump in tonight and take the Beach in this spot. The frontcourt will be the difference. We locked in -1.5 last night. I see -3.5’s out there right now. I personally would not play over -3.

Score Prediction: Long Beach State 73 – Hawaii 68

Wazzou/Stanford under 146.5: We were able to snipe the best number on this total today. It had been bet up to 146.5 this AM after opening at 144.5. We locked in at the perfect time. This now sits at 145 at most places from what I am seeing.

Washington State is going to sit on the ball in this game. The Cougars rank 256th in pace this season and do not want Stanford running. A halfcourt game would be phenomenal for our under not only for pace reasons, but these are two of the best teams in the country in defending the halfcourt. Wazzou ranks 16th in SQ PPP allowed in the halfcourt and Stanford comes in at 24th. These two teams are also great at defending the rim. The Cardinal rank 10th in defending shots attacking the rim and Washington State ranks 34th.

All of these reasons lead me to believe we have a perfect recipe for an under tonight at Maples Pavilion. The Shot Quality model agrees with a 143.7 predicted score. Let’s go defense.

Score Prediction: Stanford 71 – Washington State 69

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

1/5 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Purdue Athletics)

1/5 Card:

Butler +6.5  (6:30pm ET – FS1)

Purdue/Illinois u155 & Purdue -10  (8:30pm – FS1)

Bonus: Player Prop Thoughts

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Butler +6.5 : I have been wrong on my fair share of preseason predictions to this point (looking at you Gaels and Gauchos), but Butler is one of the teams that I nailed to experience a major improvement in the 23/24 season. The Bulldogs are squarely on Joe Lunardi’s bubble as we begin 2024. Tonight is a fantastic opportunity to improve on their resume. This is going to be a dog fight. Pun intended.

Believe it or not, Butler actually ranks higher in the Shot Quality adjusted defensive rating than the Huskies. Their defense will be the key to keeping this close tonight. The Bulldogs have two fantastic characteristics as a defensive unit:

  • They don’t put their opponents on the free throw line (25th in opponent FTR)
  • They don’t allow open threes (9th in defensive open 3 rate)

I also like the Butler frontcourt to be able to stifle the Huskies a bit in the post. Jalen Thomas and Andre Screen provide some of the better rim protection that you will find in the Big East. Screen has 6 blocks in his last 5 games since the injury to Connor Turnbull. He averaged 1.3 blocks per game a year ago at Bucknell and is starting to return to that form. His rim protection will be needed against the Huskies.

Hinkle Fieldhouse is beginning to turn into a fortress again. Butler is undefeated at home this season. Conversely, UConn is 0-2 in true road games this year. 6.5 was too many points. The market seemed to agree. This has been steamed down to 4.5 in most places. I think UConn sneaks away with a tight win here, but would not be shocked at all to see Butler pull off the upset. Give me the points.

Score Prediction: UConn 73 – Butler 71

Purdue -10 & under 155 : This is one of my favorite double-up spots of the season. I show a huge edge to the Boilermakers and the under. Let’s get into why.

Illinois is going to be in massive trouble in the paint in this game. The Illini rank 240th in the country in defending post-up scenarios per Shot Quality. Sniper, hit the meme.

Purdue ranks 9th in the country in the post-up play-type thanks to the very tall man above. The Illini also rank 239th in defending the pick & roll ball-screen and the Boilermakers are 25th in the country in attacking that play-type. I believe this will also bring a slower pace to this game. Purdue ranks 107th in the country in possessions per game, and I expect them to dictate the pace and play even slower to ensure that they attack Illinois in these areas.

The Illini will be without Terrence Shannon Jr. indefinitely. For purely basketball reasons, this is a massive loss for Brad Underwood and Illinois. Shannon dictated a lot of pace for this offense and was one of the best transition players in the country. I expect the Illinois pace to dip dramatically as time goes on without him in the fold. The offense is now going to be ran through Marcus Domask in key situations from all indications. He is a patient player who does not like to “force the issue”. That will inherently bring a slower pace. I also see a Domask centered offense being a major issue tonight. Marcus will see a lot of Mason Gillis and Caleb Furst in this game. I expect Matt Painter to utilize those guys to put the clamps down on Domask and force someone else from Illinois to beat them. This is a major factor in my handicap.

The pace will be in our favor in a big way tonight in my opinion. I do not see a world where Illinois breaks 70 in this game. I would be stunned. The market has agreed. This total has been steamed all the way down to 151. I would probably still play it there if you haven’t yet. I also expect Purdue to take full advantage of all of their mismatches and blow out Illinois in this perfect “Top 10” Friday night home spot at Mackey. This is the first one of this season. I am so excited. A DOUBLE BEST BET.

Score Prediction: Purdue 82 – Illinois 65

Bonus Player Prop Parlay (+750) Thoughts:

Tristen Newton under 6.5 AST: I believe in the Butler defense tonight. They are only allowing 12.5 assists per game on the year, and I do not see 7 coming from one player. Even one as great as Newton.

Pierre Brooks II over 1.5 3PT: Pierre is quickly turning into a big-game shooter. He has cleared this number against Michigan State, FAU, Providence, TTU, St. John’s, etc. He is averaging 6.2 three point attempts on the season and is shooting at 37.9% clip. I fully expect him to make two threes tonight.

Mason Gillis over 5.5 PTS: I love this play. Gillis has turned into one of the most efficient players in the country this season. He is shooting 55.6% FG / 51.9% 3PT / 86.7% FT. He is averaging 19 minutes per game over the last 4, and I expect him to clear 20 tonight in what I expect to be a blowout. He has covered this number in 2 out of 3 games in the last two seasons against Illinois.

Marcus Domask under 14.5 PTS: More minutes with Gillis on the court would also mean trouble for Domask. I expect Painter to use a one-two punch of Gillis and Furst on Domask tonight. These are two great defenders that will cause a ton of problems for Marcus. Domask has two 30+ point games within a 30-day span. However, he only averaged 10.5 ppg in the 4 games sandwiched in-between those performances. In a game where points are going to be hard to come by for Illinois in my opinion, I am glad to take a stab at this under.

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

1/2 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Eddie Moore / Journal)

1/2 Card:

Pitt +4.5  (7pm ET – ESPN)

Duke -14  (9pm – ESPN)

New Mexico +4 (10:30pm – FS1)

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Pitt +4.5 : The Tar Heels are on upset alert tonight. Pitt comes into tonight’s matchup 0-2 in the ACC and hungry for their first conference win of the season. It will be rocking in the Peterson Events Center tonight. The Zoo has come alive after the Panthers found a little bit of magic in the big dance last season. This is one of the better student sections in the country when they are at their best. I am fully factoring in this home court advantage into my handicap.

You need to be solid on the boards for a chance at upsetting UNC. Pitt checks that box. The Panthers rank 6th in defensive rebounding and 47th in offensive rebounding this season. They should be able to neutralize Bacot’s ferocious rebounding capabilities with their depth and length in the frontcourt.

If you have been following me this season, you know that I have been high on this Panther team since the start of the season. Shot Quality metrics are showing that I was not wrong in my assumptions. Pitt ranks 28th in the SQ adjusted offensive rating and 33rd in the defensive rating. There are very few teams that have both units rated this highly. Pitt’s SQ PPP on offense is 1.17 and their defense is 0.99. In comparison, UNC is 1.19 on offense and 1.02 on defense. Not much of a disparity there in the PPP categories. That gives me even more reason to believe Pitt has a real chance at an upset here.

Jeff Capel has owned UNC in his tenure at Pitt. The Panthers head coach is 5-2 against Carolina. I will gladly take the 4.5 points tonight. I am predicting an upset.

Score Prediction: Pitt 79 – UNC 78

Duke -14 : The Blue Devils have absolutely owned the Orange as of late. Syracuse has not beaten Duke since 2019. They have lost 4 games to Duke in the last two seasons by an average of 19 points per game. There is another bloodbath coming tonight.

Duke is going to eviscerate Syracuse in the halfcourt tonight. The Blue Devils rank 50th in the country in Shot Quality PPP in the halfcourt. The Orange rank 297th in the country in SQ PPP allowed in the halfcourt. Also, Syracuse is due for defensive regression across the board. Here is their Shot Quality regression analysis:

Duke is one of the best defensive teams in the country to this point. They rank 15th in the SQ adjusted defensive rating. Syracuse can fall into a predictable offense at times. Judah Mintz ISO is their backup plan when the ball is not moving freely early in the clock. Duke is primed to take full advantage of that with Tyrese Proctor back in the fold. His length and athleticism makes him one of the best on-ball defenders in the country. Proctor also looked solid on the offensive end in his return against Queens. It was promising to see him attack the rim without any hesitation.

Duke’s massive advantage on both ends in the halfcourt leads this to being a huge edge for me. The Blue Devils likely bust this one open in the 1H and never look back. A 1H play might have some value as well.

Score Prediction: Duke 83 – Syracuse 65

New Mexico +4 : I have been waiting for this spot for a few weeks now. I love, love, love the Lobos today.

Let’s have a chat about Donovan Dent.

The 6’2 sophomore has having one hell of a breakout year. Dent is averaging 16.8 PTS / 6.2 AST / 3 REB / 1.8 STL on the season. The Lobo offense is virtually unstoppable at the mid-major level with Dent playing this way. New Mexico has five players averaging double figures per game. I predict that number will soon jump to six with the emergence of Nelly Junior Joseph. He averaged double figures in all three years at Iona under Rick Pitino and is finally finding his footing under Richard. Colorado State already had fits trying to stop the two-man show of Jaelen House and Jamaal Mashburn Jr. a year ago. The Lobos averaged 86 points per game in the two meetings between these programs. With New Mexico improving on that offense from a year ago, I smell trouble for the Rams defensively.

The Colorado State offense has been humming as well in this early season. Can they continue at this elite level? I am not so sure. The Shot Quality regression analysis shows a pretty sharp drop-off is likely:

Jamaal Mashburn Jr. is healthy and back for today’s matchup. That was always going to be crucial for this handicap that I have had my eyes on for a few weeks. With Mashburn, Dent and Washington being confirmed “go’s” for this matchup, I am adamantly predicting a New Mexico victory. This is my Best Bet.

Score Prediction: New Mexico 79 – Colorado State 75

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

12/29 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Denise Archetto / UNCG)

12/29 Card:

Miami -19.5  (6pm ET – ACCN)

Radford +15  (7pm – ACCNX)

Northern Illinois +18 (7pm -BTN+)

UNCG TT over 63.5  (8pm – LHN)

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Miami -19.5 : The Ospreys are in for a tough one tonight. North Florida comes into tonight’s game ranked 276th in adjusted offensive efficiency rating per Shot Quality analytics. Their defense is 279th. The defense will likely be their biggest issue tonight. Miami has one of the best offenses in the country. Here is a brief profile of the Hurricane offense per SQ metrics:

The Ospreys have been susceptible to letting up big, big numbers from power conference opponents this season. UNF allowed 103 points to Iowa and 91 points to Florida State earlier in the year. They have also gotten scorched by a few low-major opponents as well. Miami will get whatever they want tonight and this will be a blowout from jump street. This is one of the bigger SQ Model edges of the night. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool on Shot Quality Bets. Use promo code “TPS” for a discount on your first month when you sign up!

Score Prediction: Miami 92 – North Florida 67

Radford +15 : This will be a theme for the remaining three plays. This could be purely anecdotal from my dumb brain (I have always admitted to being an idiot), but I feel like these types of games are tough spots following a Christmas break. Power conference teams hosting mid-majors (who can pack a punch* – sorry UNF) in a game where they are trying to get back into the rhythm of game action. A lot of students are still home for break and the student sections might not be as rowdy as normal. That is a perfect storm to allow a scrappy opponent hang around in a game long enough to cover a large number.

This Radford backcourt is the real deal. Villanova transfer, Bryan Antoine, is continuing to flourish in his time at Radford. He is shooting 41.5% from distance and 91.2% from the stripe this season. Elite stuff. Kenyon Giles and DaQuan Smith are also carrying a heavy workload in the scoring department for this team. This backcourt forces most of their damage from behind the arc. The trio has made 76 threes so far in the early season. Radford is shooting 38% from behind the arc as a team and they are rated 12th in the country in the Catch & Shoot 3PT play-type per Shot Quality metrics. This will be a problem for the Clemson defense as they rank 216th in the country in defending that play-type.

Clemson continues to be one of the biggest “frauds” in the country per Shot Quality analytics. The Tigers sit at 10-1, but their Shot Quality record is 6-5. This is mostly due to the extreme luck that they are having on defending shots around the rim. They are also due to have more shots drop from three. That is a dangerous profile to have with Radford rolling in. Here is their defensive regression analysis:

This is a quality Clemson team. Don’t get me wrong. However, they are not as elite as their record states. They should also not be laying this heavy of a number against a quality Radford team who is coming off of an upset win of West Virginia in Morgantown. Radford’s backcourt will do enough to keep us within the number in this one.

Score Prediction: Clemson 77 – Radford 66

Northern Illinois +18 : Back to the well with our Huskies! NIU has been a profitable team for us this season. Their offense is the gift that keeps on giving. We will back them again tonight against an Iowa defense that I do not trust.

Northern Illinois is rated 87th in the country in the adjusted offensive efficiency rating per Shot Quality. Not too shabby for a 6-5 team out of the MAC. Their impressive start on that end of the court is not a fluke. They are scoring 1.07 PP, but Shot Quality actually expects them to be at 1.09 PPP. That is phenomenal output from a team of this caliber. There is a chance that they get even better. Their leading scorer from the previous two seasons, Keshawn Williams, made his season debut on 12/5. Williams is just now coming back after an ACL tear last season. He did not feature in the next two games, but there is optimism that he can play 15-20 minutes again tonight. That is not factored into my handicap for tonight’s game because of how truly up in the air his status is, but mannnn that would be a bonus.

There is no way to quantify an “effort” metric, but this Iowa team continuously gives zero effort on the defensive end of the court in every game that I have watched them this season. Their close outs are slow, they get stuck on ball screens, they get back cut, etc, etc, etc. The Hawkeyes are 265th in the country in allowing opponent assists per game. Just pathetic for a program of this stature. There is no way that the Iowa defense will be locked in enough to slow down NIU in a sleepy spot following Christmas break. Especially not enough to cover this large of a number. I feel comfortable in taking the points with the Huskies tonight. I lean the over as well, but the number is too large for me to get any exposure.

Score Prediction: Iowa 92 – NIU 78

UNC Greensboro TT over 63.5 : I love, love, love this play. I like the over in this game as well, but I show a very large edge specifically on the UNCG team total.

The Spartans enter tonight’s game 11th in the country in three pointers made per game. This will be the crucial metric for tonight’s handicap. Texas ranks 322nd (!!!) in the country in Open 3 rate on defense.

I believe that we have a very strong chance to make double digit three pointers tonight. That will go a long way towards scoring 64 points. Texas’ defense is due for regression across the board. Here is their Shot Quality regression analysis:

The Spartans have sputtered a bit in December without Mikeal Brown-Jones. That is not surprising. Mikeal is having one of the best seasons in college basketball to this point in the season:

There are some rumors that he may be returning tonight, but there is nothing solid from a reporting perspective to make me believe that he will give it a go at this point. We have yet to be given a true update on just what exactly he is dealing with. If he is deemed active, the TT and spread will steam towards UNCG. Go ahead and lock this in now because I love this play with or without Mikeal. He will not factor into the three point edge that we have tonight. He has only made 6 on the season. I also believe that it was good for UNCG to let out some frustrations on poor Virginia-Lynchburg in their last outing. They scored a school record 135 points in that game. Hopefully that was able to get the taste of the High Point and Marshall games out of their mouth.

UNCG is 10-2 in clearing 63.5 points this season. They won a game while only scoring 58 points in one of those where they didn’t eclipse 63.5, and then scored 63 points in the other. The Spartans scored 72 on Arkansas and 70 on Vanderbilt in their previous “step-ups” this season. I think they have a real chance to push 70 tonight with the success that they will find from distance. This is also qualifies as one of the sleepy spots as we have talked about in this article. Will Texas really be checked in enough to try to fix their problems in the Open 3 rate department? I doubt it. Shot Quality is in agreeance with me on this one. They have UNCG projected at 67.3 points tonight. This is my Best Bet.

Score Prediction: UNCG 69 points

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

12/18 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Bradley University Athletics)

12/18 Card:

Bradley +4  (7pm ET – No stream?)

UT Martin +7  (8pm – ESPN+)

EWU/Cal Poly u146  (10pm – ESPN+)

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Bradley +4 : The Braves truly have one of the more insane resumes this season. They started the season 6-0 with wins over UAB, Utah State, Tulane and Vermont. Bradley has since lost their last four games and sit at 6-4. The Braves snap their losing skid today.

This is a fantastic matchup for Malevy Leons and Darius Hannah. Duquesne will not be able to cope with their efficiency in the post. The Shot Quality regression analysis is pointing to big nights ahead for the Dukes’ opponents around the rim:

Duquesne is also 202nd in the country in Shot Quality PPP allowed in post-up play types. This will be an area of emphasis for Brian Wardle.

A lot of people are concerned about the absence of Connor Hickman tonight. This is just not a matchup where I believe that his absence should cause the Braves to be 4 point dogs. Bradley will try to win this in the paint. The Braves also have been learning to cope without him over the last few games and Christian Davis is really turning it on. He scored 16 points last time out. I still have this game is Bradley -1 on a neutral in Hickman’s absence. Give me the points. This bet is also Shot Quality model approved. Below is a preview of their Value Finder tool:

Score Prediction: Bradley 70 – Duquesne 69

UT Martin +7 :  This is one of the biggest edges on a side in the Shot Quality model today. It shows 6.9 points of perceived value in UT Martin’s favor. I am in full agreeance.

The Skyhawks are going to have a massive advantage from distance tonight. UT Martin comes into tonight’s game with 109 makes from three in only 11 games. Evansville is playing with fire analytically in that department. They are allowing their opponents to get off a ton of looks from three and are not taking any.

Evansville is lucky to be sitting at 8-2 with that profile. It will catch up with them shortly. Shot Quality graded out their UNI and Bellarmine wins as losses. UT Martin will try to force them out of their normal rhythm tonight. The Skyhawks rank 3rd in few shots allowed attacking the rim per Shot Quality analytics.

UT Martin will do enough to keep this within the number. Give me the points

Score Prediction: Evansville 80 – UT Martin 76

EWU/Cal Poly u146 : I love this total. I don’t think that it sniffs 140 tonight.

Cal Poly is building an ideal Shot Quality profile for going under totals. Look at how disgusting this is:

This profile and many other bad traits have the Mustangs ranked 348th in the SQ adjusted offensive rating. Eastern Washington is also struggling out of the gate on the offensive end due to the turnover in the roster from a season ago. The Eagles rank only 173rd in SQ adjusted offensive rating.

The pace will also be our friend tonight. Cal Poly is 325th in tempo and EWU is 88th. The pace will be slow enough to keep this game in the 130’s. This bet is Shot Quality approved with a projected score of 73.7 to 64.8. This is my Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Eastern Washington 73 – Cal Poly 65

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

12/11 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Howard University Athletics)

12/11 Card:

Robert Morris +4.5  (7pm ET – ESPN+)

Howard +6  (7pm – ESPN+)

Utah Tech +2.5  (10pm – ESPN+)

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Robert Morris +4.5 : The Colonials are primed to give Delaware an upset scare tonight. The Blue Hens are coming into this game following a monster win at the Cintas Center over Xavier on December 5th. I think that long of a layoff could lead to some “rat poison” creeping in to the locker room. This is a perfect spot for a 2-7 Robert Morris to catch them by surprise.

The Colonials are not as bad as their record looks. There is no shame is true non-con road losses to Wisconsin, Xavier, Towson and Northern Kentucky. Robert Morris was actually trading blows with Xavier at Cintas for a while as well. The Colonials have FIVE players averaging double figures this season. You would not suspect that from a 2-7 team. The Shot Quality regression analysis is showing that they are due for a boost on the offensive and defensive side of the court as well:

Delaware has an impressive resume to this point but they definitively have some cracks in the armor. The Blue Hens rank 303rd in the country in free throw percentage at 65.8%. We all know that missing free throws on the road is a recipe for disaster. Their defense is also putrid in the halfcourt. The Blue Hens rank 216th in the country in Shot Quality PPP allowed in the halfcourt. The regression monster shows they may start letting in a few more points sooner than later:

When you see a 6-3 team laying only 4.5 points on the road against a 2-7 team it should instantly get your attention. This is a perfect let down spot for Delaware and Robert Morris looks to be in the good graces of the regression monster. Keep your eye on Markeese Hastings for RMU. He is averaging 14.0 ppg & 8.4 rpg while shooting 50.5% FG and 38.9 3pt%. He will be able to go toe-to-toe with Jyare Davis and give the Colonials a real shot to win this one outright. Give me the +4.5.

Score Prediction: Delaware 70 – Robert Morris 69

Howard +6 :  Seth Towns sznnnnnn! One of the oldest men in college hoops is doing the damn thing this season. Towns has taken full advantage of this extra year of eligibility and is making a huge impact for this Bison team.

Towns damn near was able to carry Howard to an upset over Cincinnati last time out. I watched a good portion of this game and the Bison really impressed me. Especially on the offensive end of the court. Jelani Williams (former Quaker) is bringing much needed play creation to this team over the past few weeks. He has recorded 5 assists in each of their last three games. The Shot Quality regression model agrees with me. The Bison are scoring 1.03 PPP and SQ has them at 1.06. Also, Howard has a great analytical profile to back as an underdog:

Penn has the ability to play down to their competition and leave themselves vulnerable to an upset. The Quakers have already been upset by LaSalle and Maryland Eastern-Shore on the young season. This is due to being poor in vital areas needed for consistency:

I believe that Howard has the edge tonight in this clash of profiles. I respect The Palestra, but Howard has a big time chance to win this game. This is my Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Howard 74 – Penn 73

Utah Tech +2.5 : How can you not love Jon Judkins and the Trailblazers? This feel good story of a D2 team moving up to the big leagues just continues to produce enjoyment for us all.

The Trailblazers are more than just a feel good story. This is a quality basketball team. The 2-0 start in the WAC is not a fluke. Tanner Christensen is a major reason for the good start to the year. The 6’10 junior is averaging 12.8 ppg and 7.3 rpg while shooting 59% from the field. Beon Riley (Hawaii transfer) has been a massive addition to this team to stretch the court for Christensen. Riley is 9/14 from three on the season and is shooting 85% from the stripe. Also, Aric Demings is starting to find his footing as a freshman. He scored a season high 16 points last time out in their win over Idaho.

I believe that the Trailblazer backcourt has a great chance to win this game from the perimeter. CSUN is one of the worst three point shooting teams in the country. The Matadors only have 44 makes on the season in 9 games. That slots them in at 345th in the country in made three pointers per game. 18 of these threes have come from Dionte Bostick. Foul trouble or an off-night from Bostick could spell a lot of trouble for the spacing of this offense. Expect many double teams from the Trailblazers on De’Sean Allen-Elkens.

The SQ model has a slight edge to Utah Tech on the number in this one as well. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool. Use promo code “TPS” for 10% off of a first month’s subscription at shotqualitybets.com. I would like Utah Tech by a few points on a neutral and I am not giving CSUN any home court edge at all tonight. I will gladly take the 2.5.

Score Prediction: Utah Tech 72 – CSUN 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

12/7 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: ISU Athletics)

12/7 Card:

Tamin Lipsey o5.5 assists  (7:30pm ET – ESPNU)

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Tamin Lipsey o5.5 assists : Tamin Lipsey is quickly turning into one of my favorite point guards in the country. The 6’1 sophomore is entering tonight’s game coming off of a triple-double in a win over DePaul. The 7th in school history.

Lipsey’s facilitating was on full display. Whether it was finding cutters or open three point shooters, the passes were zipped in efficiently. I am excited to back his playmaking ability coming into tonight’s rivalry game. The Iowa game means a lot to Tamin. He was born in Ames and has lived and breathed this rivalry for his entire life.

Iowa State got blown out by Iowa last year. Lipsey was one of the few bright spots for the Cyclones that night. He scored 11 points and collected 5 assists in his first taste of the rivalry. The assist number is impressive as Iowa State only scored 56 points. Make no mistake about it. He will be out for revenge tonight.

This Iowa defense is pathetic. Subhuman almost. We talked about all of their short comings when it comes to defending an Edey led offense in the write-up on Monday night. The Hawkeyes will also struggle against a Tamin Lipsey led offense tonight. Iowa comes into this game as the 238th rated defense in the Shot Quality adjusted efficiency rating. There are many areas of this defense that Lipsey can attack with his playmaking abilities. Iowa is 332nd in the country in defending cuts. They are allowing 1.48 SQ PPP on this play type. That is literally as bad as it gets folks. Lipsey is one of the best passers in the country when it comes to finding a slashing cutter. Iowa is also 341st in the country in defending catch and shoot 3’s. Edey was able to take advantage of this by kicking out when he was doubled. Lipsey will be able to take advantage of this by driving into the paint and kicking out to open shooters just as Braden Smith did. Iowa is also rated 296th at defending shots around the rim. Lipsey is phenomenal at the fake lay-up loop around pass to a big. There are so many areas to attack.

Iowa has allowed monster assist numbers from the playmakers of their opponents in their three losses. Trey Alexander had 9 assists for Creighton, Milos Uzan had 9 assists for Oklahoma, and Braden Smith had 8 assists for Purdue. Lipsey also has a very high floor when it comes to assists. He has bottomed out at 4 assists three times this year. All of these instances were against quality defenses in VT, VCU and Texas A&M.

I love this play enough to qualify it as a Best Bet. Let’s go 1-0 on this night with limited hoops!

Prediction: Tamin Lipsey – 8 assists

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

12/5 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Getty Images)

12/5 Card:

Illinois +2.5  (6:30pm ET – ESPN)

Michigan State -5  (7pm – Peacock)

Northern Illinois +7.5  (8pm – ESPN+)

UNC/UConn u152.5   (9:00pm – ESPN)

Fresno State -8.5  (10:00pm – MWN)

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Illinois +2.5 : Florida Atlantic has been one of the most impressive teams in the country over the last few weeks. They have really silenced some of the “smart guy” preseason critics claiming that they were undeserving of their preseason rating. There will be many people lining up at the window to back them on this short spread at the Jimmy V Classic tonight. That will not be us. I am a fan of the Owls long term, but Illinois is a very dangerous opponent for them tonight.

Brad Underwood has the Illini playing phenomenal defense this season. Illinois is currently 32nd in the Shot Quality adjusted defensive rating. This includes being the #2 (!!!) halfcourt defense in the country in SQ PPP allowed. That is an important metric for tonight. FAU ranks 268th in the country in SQ offensive transition rating. The Owls do a large majority of their damage in the halfcourt. The Illini have a great opportunity to take advantage of that tonight. You also have to rebound well to compete against FAU. That is a strength of Illinois. They are 13th in the country in defensive rebounding and 34th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.

Illinois is getting healthier. Coleman Hawkins has missed a lot of time this year with a knee problem. They got him back into the fold last time out and walked into Piscataway and blew out Rutgers. That just simply doesn’t happen often at the RAC.

The Illini are starting to find their groove and they have the perfect defensive scheme to knock off FAU tonight. I like Illinois in a close one.

Score Prediction: Illinois 74 – FAU 72

Michigan State -5 :  Wisconsin is coming off of a monster win over the weekend against Marquette. The Badgers have been on a roll lately with easy wins over SMU and UVA as well. This run has catapulted Wisconsin back into the Top 25. Yet, they are 5 point dogs tonight on the road at a 4-3 Michigan State. This spot is screaming Sparty. I have to answer the call.

Wisconsin’s recent successes have a common theme. No road environments. The only road test that Wisconsin has faced this season resulted in a 13 point loss at Providence. That is important to note when we talk about a team returning as many minutes as the Badgers do. A season ago this group was 5-7 ATS in true road games. Their success simply does not travel. This group also struggled heavily ATS in conference play a year ago. The Badgers were only 7-13-1 against the number in Big 10 play. This is the Big 10 opener for a Michigan State. The Breslin Center is going to be a hornets nest tonight as the Spartans are looking for their first marquee win of the season.

Wisconsin is also due for offensive regression. They are playing well above their means on that end of the court.

I believe that will rear its ugly head tonight in a hostile environment. I do not trust their frontcourt to be able to cope with the athletic defenders that Izzo can throw at them. Michigan State wins this one comfortably. This is my Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 72 – Wisconsin 61

Northern Illinois +7.5 : Indiana State has been one of the darlings of the 23/24 season. How can you not love this team? Their unselfish style of play and high scoring ability have captured the attention of those deep in the weeds of college basketball. Can the Sycamores keep it up to this level? I am not so sure.

The Shot Quality regression analysis shows that offensive level of play may be dropping sooner rather than later:

The Sycamores are experiencing a high variance of shot luck at the three point line and around the rim. Indiana State is shooting 41% from distance. SQ projects them to be at 33%. They are also finishing at 66% around the rim, but SQ projects them to be at 59%.

I have said it before, and I will say it again. This Northern Illinois offense is the real deal. They have climbed all the way to the #37 offense in the country per the SQ adjusted offensive rating. They are scoring 1.11 PPP on offense and the best part is that SQ agrees with their actual rating. Their SQ PPP is also 1.11.

I believe that Northern Illinois can score with Indiana State throughout the entirety of this one. With both offenses sitting at a SQ PPP of 1.11, I will gladly take the 7.5 points at home. This bet is also SQ Model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool. Use promo code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month of a subscription!

Score Prediction: Indiana State 84 – Northern Illinois 80

UNC/UConn u152.5 : We have been great at selecting under situations in marquee games like this one tonight in MSG. It is time to go back to the well.

Don’t look now .. but .. Hubert Davis is actually coaching his ass off on the defensive end this year. North Carolina is coming into this contest tonight rated as the 10th best team in the country in the Shot Quality defensive efficiency rating. Yes, you read that right. Now, you might be thinking .. Sniper show me how lucky they have been on that end of the court. Here you go:

No luck whatsoever. UNC has been one of the most true to actual form teams in the country to this point. Harrison Ingram and Jae’Lyn Withers were much needed additions to this team on that end of the court. Seth Trimble is also progressing into one of the best on-ball defenders in the country in his sophomore season. UConn has picked up right where they left off a season ago as well. They are only allowing an impressive 0.91 PPP to their opponents. Good shots will be hard to come by in this game.

It is scary to take an under in games featuring Carolina and UConn because you know that second chance points are on the table every time down the court. However, both teams will struggle to reap those rewards today. UConn is 3rd in defensive rebounding and UNC is 12th. Hurley and Davis will make it a point of emphasis to keep one another off of the offensive glass.

This was close to a Best Bet, but I do feel like this will be an up-tempo affair. I like to have tempo in my favor for a total Best Bet. The defenses and lack of offensive rebounding chances should be enough to get us under the total here.

Score Prediction: UConn 76 – UNC 71

Fresno State -8.5 : Fresno State comes into tonight’s game with a 2-4 record. That certainly does not represent the quality of this team. The four losses have come to Kent State, JMU, UCSB and BYU. There is a chance that all four of those opponents could be tournament teams in March. The Bulldogs will be able to let out some aggression on Idaho State today.

Fresno State’s backcourt is shooting the lights out from distance to start the year. Isaiah Hill, Donavan Yap Jr. and Xavier DuSell have all made double digit threes on the season. This trio is also all at least shooting 36% from deep. Idaho State is due for giving up a big night from distance. Opponents are only shooting 27% on 3pters against them. SQ expects that number to be closer to 32%. Fresno State is the perfect team to smack them with the law of averages.

Too much offense from Fresno State tonight. They win by double digits.

Score Prediction: Fresno State 72 – Idaho State 60

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!