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11/16 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: AP)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 13-11-0

Season Best Bet Record: 5-3

11/16 Card:

Oakland +16

Florida Gulf Coast +21

Texas PK

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Oakland +16 : Beat the market yet again. We locked this in last night, and now the Golden Grizzlies are +13.5. You may be scared to play them again after they burned us against Oklahoma State, but don’t write this team off just yet. I truly believe that is an aberration for what their season will look like. This is a massive letdown spot for Toledo. They are coming off of a big win against UAB in the Barstool Invitational. Barstool put a lot of time and resources into their inaugural tournament, and Toledo has had a lot of exposure over the last few days due to it. They were even at the Barstool College Football Show last night celebrating with their trophy before the Rockets home game against Bowling Green. I feel like this could be an edge for Oakland. They are pissed off and ready to write their wrongs from the last game, and Toledo could be lost in the hype from this weekend’s action. I still love the balanced attack from Oakland, and Toledo’s defense is not impressing me. I think the lid comes off of the rim from distance, and the Golden Grizzlies are in this one until the end. This is my Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Toledo 81 – Oakland 73

Florida Gulf Coast +21 : Too many points here. We know Florida Gulf Coast likes to “big game hunt” (ask USC), and Tennessee’s defense looked very shaky in their loss to Colorado. They allowed the Buffs to score 78 points in route to their victory. After taking a deep dive, I saw that Tennessee allowed 8 threes. Colorado does not rely on the three point line, so that is a decent amount of makes. That is not a good sign with a FGCU team coming in who bombs it from three. The Eagles have shot 99 threes in 3 games, and have made 38 of them. Their path to covering this big number will be through the three point line. Keep an eye out for Stetson transfer, Chase Johnston. In their two games vs D1 opponents (USC & San Diego) he shot 9/20 from three. He is an absolute bucket and can get his shot off no matter who is defending him. If we keep him out of foul trouble, the Eagles can score enough in Knoxville to cover.

Score Prediction: Tennessee 79 – Florida Gulf Coast 63

Texas PK : Longhorn Nation! This is the game I have had circled since the offseason. As you may know, I have a preseason title ticket on Texas. I think this could be their year. There is nothing like testing yourself early on against Mark Few and the Zags. This Texas team is complete now that they have a true point guard running the show. Tyrese Hunter is the real deal folks. Also, the defense is clicking in Year 2 of the Chris Beard system. You know from his Texas Tech teams that this is the backbone of his programs, and the Longhorns look to be exceling in that area this year. They only allowed 31 points last time out to Houston Christian. Yeah, I get it. Houston Christian. .. but 31 points is 31 points. Gonzaga has been very sloppy with the ball this season. 16 turnovers per game. The newly opened Moody Center will be absolutely rocking tonight, and could lead to even more mental errors from Gonzaga. Defense is the path to victory for Texas. They get it done tonight and cement themselves as title contenders.

Score Prediction: Texas 71 – Gonzaga 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

11/15 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Hunter Martin Photography)

Season Record: 10-10-0

Season Best Bet Record: 4-3

11/15 Card:

Penn +1

Duke +2

San Diego State -4.5 & Under 140

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Penn +1 : We got this line early yesterday, and the market has caught fire on Penn since. This line is up to Penn -2.5 in most places. It really exemplifies the importance of locking bets at the open. The Quakers will get their first win tonight. Penn stands at 0-3 to start the 22/23 season, but they very well may have played three tournament teams. I am really high on Mizzou, and Towson and Iona are the odds on favorites to win their conferences. The Quakers matchup with Drexel is simple. The guard play ability is not in the same stratosphere. Jordan Dingle is one of the best guards in the country, and Clark Slajchert is following up an impressive freshman season with 14.7 ppg so far this year. On the other side of the court, Drexel will struggle to cope with the losses of Cam Wynter, Xavier Bell and Melik Martin. The talent is just not there. Penn will easily cruise in this inner city matchup. It is my Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Penn 74 – Drexel 66

Duke +2 : As with Penn, we caught the line at the open in a beautiful spot. The Blue Devils are now the favorites at -1.5 at most books. Loving the CLV. There are a lot of factors in Duke’s favor tonight. First and foremost, Bill Self will not be on the bench for Kansas. He is one of the better in-game adjusters in the country. Do not let other handicappers tell you that it doesn’t matter. It does in a matchup of this magnitude. I also feel like Duke will have a massive edge on the glass tonight. KJ Adams and Jalen Wilson are very bouncy, but they stand at 6’7 and 6’8. The likes of Filipowski, Lively, Young and Mitchell could give them fits on the offensive glass. I also have questions on the scoring prowess of the Jayhawk backcourt early in this season. Can Harris and McCullar develop into impactful point producers? I am not so sure. Relying on Grady Dick this early into his freshman season is likely not to be favorable scenario against Top 10 opponents. This was close to a Best Bet, but liked Penn just a little more.

Score Prediction: Duke 75 – Kansas 70

San Diego State -4.5 & Under 140 : I am not sure how Stanford scores on the Aztecs tonight. This offense is putrid right now outside of Michael Jones. 23.7% from distance, 64.9% from the stripe, and a negative assist/turnover ratio of 12/16. As you already know, the Aztecs are a defensive stalwart on a yearly basis. They have also paired some scoring with the defense this season. It is not just the Matt Bradley show. Darrion Trammell (Seattle transfer) and Jaedon Ledee have looked phenomenal early on. I do not rate Stanford, and I think San Diego State is poised for a fantastic season. Even though it is not a great habit to get into, I will easily lay these points on the road. Also, I will be making the under an official play. As I stated earlier, I think the Cardinal will have to do everything in their power to break 60 tonight. They like to play slow (175th in pace this year), and San Diego State will happily welcome a half court game. Those reading this article will receive this pick. I won’t post it on a normal tweet. Bonus for the real ones!

Score Prediction: San Diego State 69 – Stanford 62

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

11/14 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: The Post and Courier)

Season Record: 9-8-0

Season Best Bet Record: 3-3

11/14 Card:

CofC ML

Portland +6

Hawaii -4

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CofC ML : Pat Kelsey’s Cougars are flying early this season. A great win over UTC, and a hard fought game in Chapel Hill where they lead the #1 team in the country at the half. This team is the perfect mixture of veterans and newcomers. It is hard for a team that plays at this fast of a pace to excel in an offensive efficiency rating, but the Cougars are 61st in the country in this metric so far. A solid number through 2 games with stiff competition. Not only is team scoring in an efficient manner, but they are also rebounding the hell out of the ball. They won the offensive glass in both games, including a 15-8 advantage over the Tar Heels. We know that is UNC’s strength, so that is super impressive. Also, when we took Charleston in the opener I highlighted Brzovic. He was pretty quiet in that game, but scored 15 off of the bench at the Smith Center. A sign of great things to come! If the fouls rack up or we see a close game, look for Charleston to also have the edge over Richmond. The Spiders are shooting only 63% at the stripe this season. I do not trust a Spiders team, lead by a true freshman PG, to come into Charleston and pull out a win with the pace of play that we will see from CofC. Best Bet of the night.

Score Prediction: CofC 82 – Richmond 75

Portland +6 : I had my sights set on a line of +6 in this game, and finally got it. The Pilots may win this game. I will happily take a two possession underdog spread. This is one of the best offenses in the country at the mid-major level. Hell, maybe in all of college basketball. The Pilots are averaging 92.7 points through three games. This is led by junior guard, Tyler Robertson. Robertson is averaging 19ppg / 5.7 apg / 4.7 rpg. He had a 32 point outing last time out against Portland State. He is the catalyst for this team, and the ball will be in his hands for the majority of this one. The Pilots early success comes as no surprise to me. This team really started to figure things out under Shantay Legans in February last season. This included a win over NCAA Tournament team, San Francisco. Legans has brought back a heavy dose of veterans, and they will be ready for the challenge tonight. I like Kent State. This is not a knock on them. Just a numbers play.

Score Prediction: Kent State 78 – Portland 76

Hawaii -4 : I worry about Yale’s ability to hang with a hot Hawaii team out in Honolulu. The Rainbow Warriors are clicking on all cylinders right now. They have a fantastic backcourt in Coleman and Avea. Both are scoring 15+ppg and have exceptional shooting percentages from all spots on the floor. They are paired with a phenomenal frontcourt duo as well. Da Silva and Hepa are a load to deal with on the glass, and can also create havoc around the rim for opposing offenses. I really like the make-up of this team. They can hurt you from many angles. On the other bench, I don’t really see that. Yale will share the ball nicely and get the ball to Matt Knowling, but where will the guard scoring come from if they fall behind in this game? I just don’t see the offensive firepower needed to fly into Hawaii and walk out with a win.

Score Prediction: Hawaii 70 – Yale 63

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

11/9 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Twitter – @YSUCoachCalhoun)

Season Record: 2-2-0

Season Best Bet Record: 1-0

11/9 Card:

Davidson -4

UT Martin/Youngstown State u155.5

San Diego -4

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Davidson -4 : I fully expect Wright State to feel the hurt of losing Tanner Holden and Grant Basile to the portal early in this season. A season opener is a tough time for the Raiders to be taking on a Davidson team. Especially, since Davidson has already had a regular season tune-up this week. I worry about Wright State’s ability to handle Sam Mennenga on the offensive glass without Basile. Mennenga averaged 1.6 offensive rebounds per game a year ago. Also, you want to catch Davidson when they are in a shooting slump, right? That is when the Wildcats are vulnerable. However, that does not look to be the case early in this season. Davidson shot 15-34 from three in their season opener. Give me Davidson and the McKillop system. Matt will fill in right where his father left off.

Score Prediction: Davidson 79 – Wright State 71

UT Martin/Youngstown State u155.5 : Best Bet alert. My favorite play of the season so far. Let’s get into the numbers. Both of these teams ranked in the Top 40 for possessions per game in their opener. Youngstown State scored 92 points. This matchup screams over right? Well, this may be a chance for oddsmakers to pounce on simple minded gamblers. We will start with Youngstown State. This team played a pace extremely out of character against Canisius because the Golden Griffiths wanted to run, and shots were falling for the Penguins. It is easy to get sucked into that game flow in an opener. However, this is the furthest thing from what Jerrod Calhoun wants to run. Here is where the Penguins have ranked in possessions per game under Calhoun in the last three seasons: 19/20 – 204th ; 20/21 – 189th ; 21/22 – 265th (!!!). Calhoun will be sure to have his team control the tempo in their home opener. UT Martin also looked putrid on offense in their opener. The shot 32.3% from the field, 15.8% from distance, 62.5% from the stripe + 17 turnovers. I have this game in the 140-143 area. Major, major value. Let’s get to 2-0 on Best Bets!

Score Prediction: Youngstown State 74 – UT Martin 66

San Diego -4 : We will zig, while everyone else zags. Dunk City is the talk of the college basketball world after their upset of the Trojans in LA this week. Defeating their former coach on his homecourt in the process. That will get the general public lining up to back this team as an underdog. Not so fast my friend. San Diego has secretly pieced together one of the best mid-major frontcourts in the country through the transfer portal. The Toreros added a pair of Pac 12 transfers in Jaiden Delaire (Stanford) and Eric Williams Jr. (Oregon). Both of these guys played major minutes in the Pac 12 and are seasoned veterans. Williams started playing college ball in 2017, and Delaire in 2018. This frontcourt is also paired with a sensational backcourt in Townsend & Sisoho Jawara. Both are double digit scorers that can shoot the lights out. Also, they have a fabulous sixth man coming off of the bench in Marcellus Earlington. The former St. John’s guard has really flourished in his role in San Diego. I really like the makings of this team, and that is combined with what we are seeing in Vegas. Early money is showing 54% of the tickets on Florida Gulf Coast, but 55% of the money on San Diego. Let’s ride with the Toreros.

Score Prediction: San Diego 75 – Florida Gulf Coast 65

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

11/8 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: On3 Sports)

Season Record: 2-1-0

Season Best Bet Record: 1-0

11/8 Card:

Georgetown -17

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Georgetown -17 : Laying 17 with a team on a 21 game losing streak. Whew. Buckle up. However, I feel strangely confident in my handicapping on this one. Let’s start with Coppin State. The Eagles have again deployed the bold strategy of playing back-t0-backs early in their season. I am not sure where they see they value in this, but do you boo boo. Unsurprisingly, they do not handle these b2b’s very well. Last season they had them on two occasions. They lost all four games by a combined 140 points. Yes, a 35 point loss on average in those. The Eagles played Charlotte last night and kicked off this trend in flying fashion, losing by 23 points to the 49ers. They shot 3-22 from the three point line, and got outrebounded 38-28. Georgetown has tremendous length and rebounding prowess this season with transfers Akok Akok (UConn) and Qudus Wahab (Maryland & former Hoya). It should be an assault on the glass in DC tonight. I also do not see the shots starting to drop for the Eagles on a b2b with no practice time. Now, let’s discuss Georgetown. I really fancy the backcourt that Patrick Ewing pulled together through the transfer portal. Brandon Murray (LSU) and Jay Heath (Arizona State) are big time players. I am especially excited for Brandon Murray. The former top 100 recruit really excelled in his freshman season in the SEC. He will bring a combo guard approach to the Hoyas to fill the minutes of Aminu Mohammed who went pro. Georgetown will be without starting point guard Dante Harris tonight, but I am confident that Primo Spears (Duquesne) and Denver Anglin (#88 recruit via 247 Sports) can pitch in and provide great minutes at the point guard position. Let’s trust the Coppin State back-to-back analytics, and also trust that Ewing has put together a competitive squad through the portal. Georgetown big.

Score Prediction: Georgetown 86 – Coppin State 65

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

11/7 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: CofC Athletics)

Season Record: 0-0-0

Best Bet Record: 0-0

11/7 Card:

CofC -3

Missouri -19

Oral Roberts +9

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CofC -3 : I expect big things from this Cougars team in year two under Pat Kelsey. He returns the majority of his major contributors, and also has Dalton Bolon coming back into the fold. They were without this high-intensity guard for the majority of 21/22, and he should make a big difference on both sides of the floor. I am also intrigued by newcomer, Ante Brzovic. He is coming from the D2 ranks, but averaged 17.8ppg and 11rpg as a freshman. The Croatian could have been in a diamond in the rough in international scouting, and I am excited to see how he translates to D1. Chattanooga is coming off of a fantastic 21/22 season. However, Lamont Paris left for the South Carolina job, and many of their impact players left the program. They will be solid again this season, but I think the Cougs catch them on opening night in Charleston.

Score Prediction: CofC 82 – Chattanooga 75

Missouri -19 : Dennis Gates was one of the best coaching hires in the country. I really loved what he did at Cleveland State, and you know this from the amount of times that we rode with the Vikings during his tenure. Gates has instantly made an impact in Columbia with what I think is the best transfer portal haul in the country. MAJOR impact players in abundance: Noah Carter, Sean East, DeAndre Gholston, Nick Honor, Isiaih Mosley .. and he also brought his two best players from Cleveland State – Tre Gomillion and D’Moi Hodge. The team looked gelled and fired on all cylinders in their most recent scrimmage, and I think Mizzou is poised for an NCAA tournament birth. Southern Indiana is making the jump from D2 this season. While I think they can shoot the ball well and may surprise some people in their debutant year, tonight is not going to be pretty for them. They lack the athleticism to compete with this high flying Tigers team. Mizzou in a route.

Score Prediction: Missouri 84 – Southern Indiana 60

Oral Roberts +9 : The absolute disrespect for our Golden Eagles. I fully project this team to make it out of the Summit and into the NCAA Tournament for the 2nd time in 3 years. Getting 9 points in an opener with Saint Mary’s is an absolute gift. Not only do the Golden Eagles return one of the best players in the country, Max Abmas ..but they also return almost every single key contributor from last season. Paul Mills also strengthened the team and solidified the interior with Arkansas transfer, Connor Vanover. Vanover is a 7’5 center that has a sweet jump shot. He lost his way in Fayetteville due to the crazy up-tempo offense that the Muss Bus has firing at Arkansas, but he can find a nice role with Oral Roberts. I especially like him in a matchup against Saint Mary’s. The slower tempo will suit his game. Saint Mary’s will have trouble replacing the contributions of Taas, Kuhse, and Fotu. Randy Bennett did not hit the transfer portal hard, so he will be relying on his role players from last season + Ducas and Johnson. The Gaels will always be well coached with Bennett at the helm, and they will probably win tonight… but 9 points is far too much for this opening season matchup. I will be sprinkling ML as well. This is my Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Saint Mary’s 71 – Oral Roberts 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

22/23 College Basketball Preview

(photo: Burnt Orange Nation)

Welcome back snipers! It is the best time of the year, and I have you covered with your prep for the 22/23 Season. I will be providing you with a “Play”, “Fade” and “Buy Now” team for the major seven conferences. You know we can’t stop there. I also will be lumping in some mid-major loves.

No, I do not care about your team’s preseason scrimmage. Let’s get cooking..

AAC

Play: Houston -330

The Cougars will be back in the mix for a Final Four birth in 2023. Marcus Sasser is baaaaaack. I think Timme will run away with the Naismith race this season, but take a look at Sasser on a flier. This guy can get a bucket from anywhere on the court. He showed just that by shooting 44% from three before his injury last season. This backcourt has a chance to be one of the best in the country with the emerging, Jamal Shead. He burst onto the scene in the tournament last season, and I am expecting big things from this combo guard this season. The defensive intensity and rebounding will continue to be elite with the majority of their key contributors in those areas back. This team is downright scary to play. Your money is safe with -330.

Fade: Memphis

But, they added conference player of the year, Kendric Davis?!! No. Just no. This will not elevate this team anywhere above where they were last season. Which was a massive disappointment. Memphis averaged 16.4 turnovers a game last season, and Kendric Davis is not the type of guard to fix that issue. There are also major questions in the post. Deandre Williams sure, but.. who else? Lastly, I just simply do not trust Penny Hardaway. This team always has the hype, but I fear we will never see the success. I will be looking to fade the Tigers early and often this season.

Buy Now: Cincinnati +1000

Maybe not the conference price, as I am confident in a Houston AAC title.. but make sure to bet this team early and often before Vegas catches on. I am super excited for Wes Miller’s 2nd season at Cincinnati. He is one of my favorite coaches in the country, and this team is ripe for a major breakout. The Bearcats were Top 50 in assist/turnover ratio last season. One of my favorite stats for the quality of offense being ran. I think they have a chance to move into the Top 25 in that stat this season with David DeJulius having a year as a starting PG under his belt. I am also very impressed with the level of transfers that Miller was able to bring in. Landers Nolley is an elite scorer. I am expecting that we will see VT level Nolley again (Memphis is such a disaster lol). Rob Phinisee comes in from Indiana and will be a fantastic glue guy. Lastly, Kalu Ezikpe was a difference maker at ODU on the glass. That paired with his 74% free throw shooting will translate to the AAC.

ACC

Play: UNC +140

It is what it is. The Tar Heels are the class of the ACC, and have the best starting five in the country. Losing Brady Manek was a huge loss, but Hubert Davis fired back with the transfer get of Pete Nance. He may not shoot it as well from distance (the threat from 3 is there though!), but his athleticism adds a new dynamic to this team. It will be the last ride with the core four of Bacot, Love, Davis and Black. Can they comeback from heart break like the 2017 Tar Heels and win the title in their last hurray? I tend to think so. Their title odds are not worth the risk to start the season, but we will gladly take this +140 price to win the conference.

Fade: Miami

The Cinderella tournament run of 2022 was just that. Miami does not belong with the elites of the country as we move into the 22/23 season. This Hurricanes were 273rd in the country in opponent offensive rebounding percentage last season. Their opponents were getting an offensive rebound on 28.7% of their possessions. They did nothing to address this in freshman recruiting or the transfer portal. With the loss of Kameron McGusty, I do not see this team sniffing an NCAA tournament birth. I will be fading them where it makes sense to start this season.

Buy Now: FSU +1600

Injuries ruined the 21/22 season for the Seminoles. Now that they are healthy, I am expecting a major bounce back for FSU. Former five star recruit, Matthew Cleveland, was finally coming into his own at the end of last season, and I am expecting big things from him. Caleb Mills is a fantastic guard and will be leading the offense. Mills staying healthy is the huge key. Leonard Hamilton’s team will be in passing lanes and on the glass per usual, and the addition of UCF transfer, Darin Green Jr., will be a nice boost to the offense. The Seminoles will be back in the big dance in 2023. As I said for the AAC, I would not take FSU’s conference price.. but look to play them early and often.

Big East

Play: Creighton +200

The year of the Jays. This is currently the only team that I have an NCAA title future on. I am holding a 28/1 ticket. Creighton has an elite starting five that is paired with a deeeeep bench. Baylor Scheierman is the best player in the country that you have never heard of. The South Dakota State transfer will take this team to new heights, and cement his NBA future. Ryan Nembhard is one of the best facilitators in the game and will be able to take this offense to an elite level in his sophomore season. The starting five also includes an elite big in 7’1 Ryan Kalkbrenner. Expect a big big year from this little ole team from Omaha.

Fade: St. John’s

This team is receiving a ton of hype due to the addition of Illinois transfer, Andre Curbelo. Curbelo is no doubt extremely talented, but are we really supposed to believe he has magically discovered how to take care of the basketball? Curbelo averaged 2.8 turnovers in 19 minutes per game last season. Expect these turnovers to elevate even more in the up-tempo offense of Mike Anderson. There could also be a power struggle of ball control between Curbelo and Posh Alexander. I just am not loving the mixture of this team as we head into the 22/23 season. Will they be fun to watch? Absolutely. Will they put money in your pocket vs quality opposition? Probably not.

Buy Now: Seton Hall +1000

The Shaheen Holloway show is back in action. This time in the Big East. Bringing KC Ndefo with him from Saint Peter’s was a great start to his coaching tenure at a Pirate. However, my love for this team resides in their backcourt. Seton Hall is returning their “do-it-all” guard Kadary Richmond. I am expecting another big step forward for him this season. In addition to Richmond, the Pirates are returning Jamir Harris. Holloway has also added two ACC guards from the transfer portal that I think could really benefit from a change of scenery. Dre Davis from Louisville, and Al-Amir Dawes from Clemson. An energized fan base that is excited about their former Pirate coming home to coach could lead to some great ATS value at the Prudential Center to start the season.

Big Ten

Play: Michigan +500

This conference is truly a toss up, but the Wolverines are my best guess as to who brings home the regular season title. The buzz is being centered around Bloomington, but I believe in the core fundamentals of Howard’s Wolverines. Hunter Dickinson is primed for another All-Big Ten season. Reports are that his jumper is even better than last season’s improvement. I am a huge fan of Princeton transfer, Jaelin Llewellyn. He can score at this major conference level, and will lead this offensive effectively. I am sure of it. Also, coach’s son, Jett Howard, will win Freshman of the Year in the conference. Book it.

Fade: Purdue

Listen, I love Matt Painter. I know he is always there when March rolls around, but I am just unsure of how this team scores points against major competition this season. Who is the go-to scorer at the guard position? I cannot identify who that will come to be this season. I will be looking to fade them in those spots.

Buy Now: Iowa +550

This team almost finished ahead of Michigan in my preseason rankings. It will be another great season for Hawkeye fans. It is never easy replacing a lottery pick, but the rest of this team is poised to breakout. Including Keegan’s brother Kris. I can see him north of 15ppg this season. I really love the intensity of Perkins and Uhlis in the backcourt. This high flying team should earn you some coin this season.

Big 12

Play: Texas +350

Chris Beard will have the Longhorns in the Elite 8 + this season. But, first.. they will win the Big 12. Tyrese Hunter is an absolute game changer. Beard knew he needed to pull out all of the stops to land him. One of the best point guards in the country is poised to fix an offense that just simply lacked play/shot creation in Beard’s first season in Austin. Assuming the offense gets going, that paired with an elite defense will be a great recipe for success. Also, don’t sleep on the addition of Sir’Jabari Rice from NMSU. He is used to a tough nosed defensive system, and can also get a bucket. You know what, fuck it. We are adding the Longhorns 30/1 to win the title.

Fade: It is all love for the upper class of the Big 12 this year. I even love the bottom of it comparative to other conferences. No hate to provide in the preseason.

Buy Now: TCU +650

The tournament showing last season by the Horn Frogs was not a fluke. They are the real deal. Mike Miles Jr. is as good as it gets at the guard position, and TCU defends so well as a team. I would like to see them improve on their turnovers, but that is really my only gripe with this team. Look for them to remain in the Top 15-20 for the entire length of this 22/23 season.

PAC 12

Play: Arizona +205

The Wildcats are poised to have another big year under Tommy Lloyd. Tubelis should be in the mix for Pac-12 Player of the Year. The 6’11 forward averaged 14 amd 6 last season, and I would imagine those numbers balloon closer to 19 and 8. The addition of Courtney Ramey from Texas will give Arizona a dynamic backcourt with Kerr Kriisa. Also, I really expect Pelle Larsson and Oumar Ballo to grow into bigger roles this season. The consensus pick is UCLA, but I will rock with the Wildcats

Fade: USC

The Trojans are the most overrated team from last season. I did not believe they deserved to be in the NCAA Tournament. I am here to tell you for a fact, that they will not be this season. They lose three out of their top five scorers from a year before, and a major chunk of their rebounds. I do not see Vince Iwuchukwu being a solution to these problems by himself. Fade the Trojans early and often.

Buy: Stanford +1900

Do not play the conference price, but look to back this team in the early stages of the season. I really like the roster that Jerrod Haase pieced together for this season. Harrison Ingram is poised to be an NBA draft pick this season, and the Cardinal return their leading scorer in Spencer Jones. Haase also added Michael Jones from Davidson. He is an elite fundamental basketball player, and will be stability to the offense. Excited to see what this team can do. Potential tourney birth?!

SEC

Play: Tennessee +350

It is semi-disrespectful to have the reigning SEC tournament champs priced as the 3rd best team in the SEC. Tyreke Key was the perfect addition to this team to fill the void of Kennedy Chandler, and EVERY other major contributor is back. Rick Barnes is an exceptional coach and commands consistency from his teams. I trust this team to take the SEC regular season crown this season. There are too many question marks for UK (injuries) and Arkansas (newcomers).

Fade: Alabama

The shine of the high flying Oats teams in Tuscaloosa is slowing fading. I hate that it has gotten to this point, but I will be fading Bama to start the 22/23 season. Mark Sears gelling quickly could potentially change my take, but the Tide should struggle out of the gate. Especially, with Quinnerly recovering from injury still.

Buy: Auburn +1000

The Tigers will still have a fast paced exceptional backcourt, and I am excited at what Johnni Broome can bring to the SEC. It will not be easy to replace the impact that Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith had for Auburn last season, but the Morehead State transfer has long been one of my favorite mid-major players. There will certainly be a dip for the Tigers, but I am not buying that it will be as drastic as the consensus says. Wouldn’t play these longshot title odds, but I am very eager to see if backing the Tigers in the early part of the season will prove to be profitable.

Mid-Major Loves

San Diego State:

A Matt Bradley led Aztecs team has no ceiling this year. This ball dominant guard is one of the best in the country, and it showed by their run in March last season. The defensive talent was ELITE on this team last year. They just had short comings if Matt Bradley had an off scoring night. Brian Dutcher has solved this issue with the addition of Darrion Trammell and Micah Parrish through the transfer portal. This team is constructed for a deep tournament run.

Wyoming:

When/If Graham Ike returns from injury.

UAB:

The Jelly Walker show.

Drake:

I really love the makeup of this team. Roman Penn is back to run the show, and I expect Tucker DeVries to win the MVC Player of the Year honors. Loyola is no longer in The Valley, so I expect the Bulldogs to have a clear path to the big dance.

That is all I have for this preseason preview. There are countless other teams that we can get into, but we will leave it here. Please shoot me a DM with any questions or thoughts. I look forward to sharing my plays with you for another season. See you soon!

Sweet 16 Write-Up

(photo: WynnBet)

I will do my best to provide *at least* a daily group of 3-5 picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 (3-2) night. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay! 20/21 Season: 58%

Season Record: 325-290-20

Best Bet Record: 34-23

Let’s Dance!

Arkansas +9.5 : Gonzaga has failed to cover in the first two games of this tournament. That trend will continue tonight. Gonzaga has struggled to defend the guard positions in their three losses this season. The Zags allowed 65 combined points to Shackelford, Quinerly and Davison when they fell to the Tide this season. Arkansas plays a similar style of basketball (very guard centric), and I think there is an opportunity for them to keep this one close. The key will be keeping Notae out of foul trouble. He picked up 4 against Vermont, and fouled out of the New Mexico State game.

Score Prediction: Gonzaga 80 – Arkansas 73

Michigan +5: Hunter Dickinson is on a war path this tournament. Shooting 16/23 from the field and averaging 24ppg. Villanova has struggled to cover the paint against similar sized teams to the Wolverines this season. UCLA, Purdue, Baylor and UConn are the losses that come to mind. Eric Dixon will not be able to stop Dickinson from his over the shoulder left, and he definitely will struggle on the glass. Diabate is an X-Factor tonight. I believe he has a great chance to impact this game on the defensive end. It is always scary to go against Nova in March, but I am going with the fortified interior of the Wolverines to cover the points here. Worth a ML sprinkle.

Score Prediction: Villanova 69 – Michigan 67

Texas Tech PK : Defense, defense, defense. Duke is a team that likes to play finesse basketball, and they will not be afforded that opportunity tonight. Here is a great stat courtesy of Jim Root from the Three Man Weave: Texas Tech has played 24 unique opponents this season, and 17 of them have had their lowest 2pt performance of the season against the Red Raiders. That is mind blowing. Speaking of defense, Duke is 193rd in the country in defense since March 1st. Sparty got whatever they wanted against them in Greenville. This will be Coach K’s final game.

Score Prediction: Texas Tech 74 – Duke 68

Arizona ML : Arizona has the bodies to thwart’s Houston offensive glass threat. I think Tommy Lloyd will have 2/3 of Koloko, Tubelis and Ballo on the court at all times. Also, this is simply a Bennedict Mathurin play. He has the makings of a Final Four MVP. His 30/8/4 stat line against a great TCU defense was super impressive. I am not sure Houston has a guy to go shot for shot with him down the stretch.

Score Prediction: Arizona 74 – Houston 70

Purdue -12.5 : The Cinderella run stops here. Edey and Williams were able to take down a formidable Texas defense. The Peacocks’ undersized frontcourt will have a lot of problems with fouls and rebounding. When they are both working, this team can win it all. Also, Jaden Ivey was slinging dagger triples against Texas. It will be key for Purdue for him to continue to hit outside shots. He can already drive to the rim like Ja Morant, so that makes him one of the most lethal players in the tournament.

Score Prediction: Purdue 76 – Saint Peters 59

Providence +7.5 : This team just covers. Simple as that. They key to this game will be how Ed Cooley chooses to deploy Justin Minaya in this game. He is a versatile defender that could spend time on Braun, Agbaji and Wilson. Kansas struggled at times in the Big 12 season with teams that liked to get physical with them. Look for Providence to slow this one down and deploy a few fouls along the way. Al Durham is one of the best closers in the country. We will need him driving to the bucket and getting to the line at the end.

Score Prediction: Kansas 72 – Providence 67

UNC +3 (-120) : This team is scorching hot. They likely win the Baylor game running away if Manek isn’t tossed. While it was a complete disaster getting to the finish line, the Heels got valuable experience for Dontrez Styles in the process. He was a big time recruit that could prove to provide valuable minutes as the tournament goes on. UCLA’s bigs are too slow for Armando Bacot, and I like the speed of Carolina’s guards as well. With Leaky Black hugging Juzang throughout the majority of this game, I like Carolina to squeak this one out.

Score Prediction: UNC 72 – UCLA 70

Miami -2 : Best Bet. One of my favorites of this season. The Hurricanes are rolling in hot into this matchup against the Cyclones. Iowa State benefited from playing a banged up Wisconsin backcourt. It led to turnovers and bad possessions. Miami has the backcourt to force the issue against Iowa State. They only turn the ball over 9.3 times per game. That is ranked 6th nationally. Both teams can defend, but Miami is a vastly better offensive team.. If Miami reaches 60 points, they win this game.

Score Prediction: Miami 65 – Iowa State 58

2022 NCAA Tournament First Round Picks

(photo: SB Nation)

Season Record: 308-271-20

Best Bet Record: 34-21

Let’s Dance!

West Region:

Boise State +3 : This is not the team Memphis wanted to see in a first round matchup. The Broncos have the size and athleticism to match with the Tigers. Not many teams in the country can say that. Also, they love to slow the pace of the game. That is trouble for Memphis due to their struggles with half-court offense. This is due to their inability to handle pressure defense. They turn the ball over 16.2 times per game, and Boise State forces an opponent turnover on 19.8% of possessions. Boise does have an Achilles heel of free throw shooting. They are 346th in the country. However, Memphis checks in at 269th. We should see close to a wash there. The wrong team is favored. Give me the points.

Score Prediction: Boise State 68 – Memphis 66

New Mexico State +7 : While I like UConn to advance to the Sweet 16, this is a tricky first round matchup for the Huskies. Seven points is too many in this one. The Aggies are a veteran team led by one of the best coaches in this tournament. Chris Jans has developed a powerhouse mid-major program that you do not want to see in the NCAA Tournament. The last time he was a 12 seed, the Aggies lost by 1 to an Auburn team that marched on to the Final Four in 2019. Their leading scorer in that game, Johnny McCants, is still on the roster. I like the Aggies to keep it close.

Score Prediction: UConn 69 – New Mexico State 65

Davidson +1 : Foster Loyer revenge game! The Michigan State transfer has really enjoyed this season at Davidson. He has career highs across the board, and will be eager to get after the Spartans in this one. The advantage Davidson has on the offensive end will be to great for Michigan State to overcome. Davidson enters this game ranked as the 12th best offense in the country per efficiency ratings. They have made 291 threes as a team on 38.9% shooting, and have four starters averaging double figure points. There is just simply not enough shot makers on Michigan State to compete in this one.

Score Prediction: Davidson 74 – Michigan State 68

Duke -18 : This is going to be one of the bigger blowouts of the weekend. It is my Best Bet for Friday. There will be an assault on the offensive glass and the three point line. Cal State Fullerton is the 28th worst 3pt % defense in the country. They allow opponents to shoot 37.1% from distance. That is bad news when facing a Duke team that has really excelled from behind the three point line this season. 278 makes on 36.8% shooting. I would not be surprised to see Duke with 12-14 triples in the final box score. Fullerton is 326th in the country in made threes per game at 5.5. This disparity will open up the game quickly. Also, the size and rebounding advantage is too vast in this game. The Titans only have one player with over 4 rebounds per game. Second chance points galore for Williams, Banchero, John, Moore etc. This has 30 point victory written all over it.

Score Prediction: Duke 88 – Cal State Fullerton 58

East Region:

Texas PK : What are we doing with this line? I know Texas has underachieved all season, but this should not be a Pick’Em spread. The Longhorns have a talent advantage across the board in this one. VT will not be able to get any look they wanted like they did in Brooklyn. I am not sure what Duke and Carolina were doing, but it was not playing defense. Chris Beard knows how to tighten the defensive gears on his teams come tournament time. Virginia Tech does not have a lot of players that can create their own shot when things are locked up and the shot clock is running out. For that reason, I am siding with the Longhorns. Also, shouldn’t we be betting the Big 12 over the ACC in this scenario anyways?

Score Prediction: Texas 65 – VT 60

Purdue -16 : This was not a fair draw for Yale. This poor team does not have anyone over 6’8 on their roster that sees action. 7’4 Zach Edey is going to absolutely eat in this matchup.. and, when he’s not .. Trevion Williams will be cleaning up the leftovers. That size disadvantage is also bad news when guarding Jaden Ivey. He is going to get to the rim at will in this one. I don’t see a path to Yale playing any time of competent defense in this one. Seton Hall & Auburn reached the 80 point plateau in the non-con against the Bulldogs, and Purdue will do the same. The Boilermakers roll easily.

Score Prediction: Purdue 82 – Yale 60

Murray State / San Fran o136 : I cannot wait to watch this game. It should be fireworks from the opening tip. I do not recommend taking a particular side. However, there are areas for both teams to excel on the offensive end. KJ Williams should not have much resistance with what is left of the Dons interior defense. On the other end, Bouyea and Shabazz should be able to take advantage of turnovers and transition opportunities. I think both teams should be able to shoot the three well in this one also. I projected a 72-71 Murray State win, so the over has value in my opinion.

Score Prediction: Murray State 72 – San Francisco 71

South Region:

TCU PK : The Hall has struggled immensely after the loss of Bryce Aiken. The offensive identity is completely lost. There is a lot of iso and 1-on-1 going on in this lineup, and I don’t like that going against the potent Horn Frogs defense. TCU is Big 12 battle tested. Their offense has significantly improved against some of the best defenses in the country. Mike Miles has taken over as a go-to guy that is critical for tournament time. I also love the way Emmanuel Miller is playing on both ends of the court. TCU squeaks out a close one.

Score Prediction: TCU 66 – Seton Hall 63

UAB/Houston u136 : Under, Under, Under. Houston is the 3rd rated team in the nation in defensive efficiency, and the Blazers are 34th. The clamps will be on. UAB is going to find offensive life very difficult when Kelvin Sampson takes Jelly Walker out of this game. He has the tools to do so, and that will be a priority for him. I also like the way that Quan Jackson can make things difficult for the Houston guards. He is Top 10 in the nation in steals. That defensive weapon will help UAB keep things respectful in this one.

Score Prediction: Houston 68 – UAB 60

Chattanooga +8 : My Mocs! Had to roll with them in this one. I actually find a couple of their matchups appealing. I really believe that Silvio De Sousa can get Kofi into foul trouble quickly. As we have seen time and time again this year, Illinois is very beatable without him on the court. Malachi Smith has the feel of a big time player that can carry a mid-major to a tournament upset. Plummer and Frazier gamble often, and this could lead to a big night for the SoCon Player of the Year. I wish they had a better draw. I don’t believe they will have enough interior scoring to pull out a win in this one, but they will definitely get within this number in my opinion. I also believe that Lamont Paris will slow this game down. Fewer possessions will keep this one from getting away.

Score Prediction: Illinois 70 – Chattanooga 64

Colorado State +2 : This was close to a stay away from me before learning of the Devante Jones injury. He is likely out for this entire weekend with a concussion. That shifted this into a comfortable Rams play for me. Jones has been exceptional on this run to earn Michigan an at-large bid. Frankie Collins is not ready for the minutes he is going to be forced to play in this one. Huge advantage to Isaiah Stevens and Kendle Moore. It is also David Roddy time. He is going to make himself a household name by carrying the Rams to the Sweet 16.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 70 – Michigan 66

Longwood +18 : Too many points. The Lancers will surprise some people here! This team is deep and full of shooters. They are shooting 38% as a team from three on 262 makes in 32 games. You need that if your are going to stand a chance for an upset as a high seed in March. Tennessee has a tendency to get lazy at times. If they aren’t careful, they could get a 40 minute fight in this one…

Score Prediction: Tennessee 72 – Longwood 60

Loyola PK : I love the Ramblers in this matchup. The Buckeyes are injured and playing poorly coming into this matchup. It will not help matters when one of the best defenders in the country is thrown at EJ Liddell. I fully expect Lucas Williamson to be tight on Liddell for the entirety of this game. Williamson’s defensive prowess is giving him NBA looks, and this will be a great chance to showcase his skills once again. Also, Loyola can get spicy hot from distance. I think this was a really bad draw for Ohio State. The tough end of the season gets worse here. 1st round exit.

Score Prediction: Loyola 68 – Ohio State 63

Midwest Region:

San Diego State -2 : Creighton has been a thorn in my side lately, but I truly believe this is the “final beast” of surviving life without Ryan Nembhard. San Diego State is the best defense in the country. I am struggling to believe that the young Creighton team, without their point guard, can withstand the Aztecs for 40 minutes. SDSU’s length & athleticism paired with the way they can pressure in the half-court has been baffling for offenses to maneuver around this season. Coach McBuckets has done one hell of a job this season & Creighton has heart, but this will be the end of the road for the 2021-2022 season.

Score Prediction: San Diego State 62 – Creighton 57

Iowa/Richmond o150 : Iowa is the hottest team in the country. Their offense has been running on rocket fuel recently. I like this to continue against a Richmond team that struggles often on the defensive end of the court. They rank 164th in defensive efficiency. I think the Spiders also have weapons to get after the Hawkeye defense. The Spiders have made 284 threes on the year. This could be one of those games where Bohannon and Gilyard are just taking turns drilling 25 footers for several possessions in a row. Give me the over.

Score Prediction: Iowa 84 – Richmond 72

South Dakota State +2 : The Jackrabbits are the better team. Hence the +2 spread in a 4/13 seed matchup. South Dakota State is one of the best three point shooting teams that we have seen in the college game. Ever. They are shooting 44.9% from distance on 319 makes in 34 games. Their shooting paired with the inside presence of Douglas Wilson makes this team a very dangerous opponent in a “win or go home” game. I like the offensive efficiency to carry the Jackrabbits to a win here. Thursday’s Best Bet.

Score Prediction: South Dakota State 76 – Providence 70

Iowa State +4 : The absence of Will Wade will prove to be to great for the Tigers to overcome in this one. Iowa State plays lights out defense, and you need to have a proven coach drawing up your X’s and O’s in timeouts against a team like that in a tournament setting. Brockington has a star factor that will carry Iowa State to a win in this game.

Score Prediction: Iowa State 65 – LSU 64

Wisconsin -7 : This is not your typical Colgate. While they were good enough to win the Patriot again, this is their worst team in three years. There will be no answer for Johnny Davis defensively. He will be eager to make a big statement after his struggles against Sparty in the Big 10 Tournament. Colgate really struggled outside of the Patriot in non-con this season. I think that matters. Wisconsin wins comfortably.

Score Prediction: Wisconsin 75 – Colgate 64

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3/2 Card Write-Up

(photo: Times Republican)

Season Record: 273-246-16

Best Bet Record: 29-14

3/2 Card:

Iowa State -3

UConn -4

Auburn -3

Arkansas -5

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Iowa State -3 : Hilton Magic. Best Bet of the night. The Cyclones play as if they are one of the best teams in the country every time the ball is tipped at Hilton Coliseum. That is bad news for a Cowboys team with nothing to play for tonight. As you may know, they are ineligible for any postseason play due to NCAA sanctions. The Cowboys are also on a 6 game road losing streak. There is a key edge that I am looking at for Iowa State to increase that streak to 7 for the Cowboys. Iowa State is great at forcing turnovers on the season. They average 8.5 steals per game. That is bad news for a Cowboys team who while quite often gives the ball away on their own. They average an abysmal 14.9 turnovers per game on the year. The transition points for the Cyclones will matter a lot in a slower paced game. Also, Izaiah Brockington has turned into an absolute star in the half-court. In the team’s 4 game winning streak he is averaging 23.5 ppg. He will make big shots/free throws all night in this one. Give me the Cyclones on their trek to climb seed lines!

Score Prediction: Iowa State 69 – Oklahoma State 61

UConn -4 : As much as I love my Jays, they are in deep deep trouble without Ryan Nembhard. The +/- analytics of Creighton playing with/without him show to be one of the biggest disparities in the country. His injury has effectively ruined their season. We saw that last time out against Providence. The +/- numbers proved to be true in the blowout loss. They have nobody else to facilitate & get others into the flow of an offense. This Jays team is one of the youngest in the country, and these guys simply cannot operate without their point guard. Fading them again tonight.

Score Prediction: UConn 72 – Creighton 64

Auburn -3 : I get it. Auburn stinks on the road. I will not try to dispute anyone on this. However, this is the perfect “Get Off of the Mat” spot for this talented team. I really like the edge for Walker Kessler tonight. He was really bothered by his playing time in Chapel Hill last season. There is a chance that motivates him more than usual when going up against his former teammate, Garrison Brooks. From a defensive perspective, I like that Walker knows his game inside & out. He should continue to add to his impressive block total tonight. Bruce Pearl has made it very clear that winning the regular season SEC crown is a massive goal to this team. Winning tonight would all but sure that up with their finale being at home vs the Gamecocks this weekend. This team is arrogant (for good reason). They don’t like losing. I expect a large amount of fight in them tonight.

Score Prediction: Auburn 75 – Mississippi State 69

Arkansas -5 : Nothing specific from an edge perspective on this one. I am just going to continue to ride the Bud Walton Arena train until it knocks me off. Please do not discuss the TyTy Washington shot. I have erased it from my memory.

Score Prediction: Arkansas 74 – LSU 67

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!