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1/4 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Yahoo! Sports)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 79-60

Season Best Bet Record: 32-16

1/4 Card:

Duke/NC State o144

Drake +1

TCU +6

Illinois -2.5

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Duke/NC State o144 : First Best Bet of the night! I think we see a shootout in Raleigh tonight. 161 points in Durham last season, and 9 out of the last 10 matchups between the two in Raleigh have gone over. The Wolfpack are 29th in the country in points per game at home at 84.4 per. They love to get out and run behind their great home court advantage. Duke will welcome this pace. They will run with anyone that wants to run. I think that NC State’s backcourt can score at will tonight. Duke’s defense drops significantly on the road. They are 98th in the country in road defensive efficiency. At the same time, I think Duke will have a field day in the post. NC State ranks 296th in the country in opponent percentage of points from 2. Filipowski, Mitchell, Young, Whitehead and Lively should eat. Both teams have a BIG path to scoring points tonight. I will trust my gut + analytics on this one.

Score Prediction: Duke 78 – NC State 74

Drake +1 : My number has the wrong team favored tonight. I had this as Drake -2.5. I will have to jump in for the 3.5 points in perceived value. The Salukis are on an L5 to Drake, and lost all three affairs last season. Drake just has their number. A big piece of this is the inability of Southern Illinois to compete on the glass with the Bulldogs. Drake won the offensive glass in all five of those affairs. With Drake having the large majority of their pieces back for this season, I think they will take advantage of little brother tonight to improve on their bleak 2-2 conference record.

Score Prediction: Drake 66 – Southern Illinois 63

TCU +6 : Good news! We still are receiving a discount on the Horn Frogs in the market. I am not sure why. We were all over their win in Utah, and they followed that up with big win over Texas Tech this past weekend. I think Baylor can squeak out a close home win here, but there is so much value on getting 6 in this affair. TCU has a decent chance of winning this game. The Horn Frogs are bringing it on the defensive end this season. They rank 7th in the country in defensive efficiency. Their backcourt pressure is going to really hamper Baylor’s ability to score. The Bears are heavily reliant on guard scoring. I think that TCU has the size to compete on the boards, so I don’t see many cheapies going down for Baylor that the Horn Frogs can’t counteract on the other end. I think this will be an awesome game. I will gladly take the points.

Score Prediction: Baylor 72 – TCU 69

Illinois -2.5 : 2nd Best Bet of the night! We are going to receive some great CLV on this one. The line is already up to -3.5, and I would not be shocked to see a 4 or 4.5 number before tip. This is such a get right spot for the struggling Illini. After an amazing start to their season, Brad Underwood’s group finds themselves at 0-2 to start conference play. They also wedged a blowout loss at the hands of Mizzou in there as well. There have been a lot of reports about frustrations between players and coach, but hopefully the blowout of Bethune-Cookman got a lot of bad energy out of the locker room. Let’s face it. Northwestern is the best possible road opponent for Illinois to be catching tonight. I heard a great tidbit on Northwestern’s start to conference play from Jim Root today. He pointed out that Northwestern is 5-19 ATS in their last 24 games in January. That is a major indictment on Chris Collins’ ability to get his guys going for the conference grind. I think that Dainja, Mayer and Hawkins will eat on the glass tonight and create a ton of second chances for the Illini. It is also huge that they are getting Skyy Clark back into the fold tonight. He is a major sparkplug on both sides of the floor. I also don’t expect a huge homecourt advantage tonight. I would not be shocked to see 50% Illini fans in Welsh-Ryan for the inner-state matchup. The Illini have a huge alumni presence in Chicago. This is set up perfect for Illinois to get back on track. Trusting them to do so in a big way.

Score Prediction: Illinois 72 – Northwestern 63

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/3 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: The State News)

Season Record: 77-59

Season Best Bet Record: 31-16

1/3 Card:

Mississippi State +10.5

Michigan State -7

Utah State -6.5

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Mississippi State +10.5 : We got a good number last night. This is now sitting at +9.5 in most places. I believe that 10.5 is too many points in a game that I have a hunch will be very low scoring. KenPom has this total at 114, and I believe that under 122 could be a decent look. However, the Mississippi State side is the better play IMO. Chris Jans has quickly brought a toughness to Starkville. The Bulldogs are ranked 4th in defensive efficiency in the country in year one of the Jans regime. He is a coach that always rallies his team around hard nosed/muck it up basketball games. He will have his team relishing a physical matchup with the Vols, and Rick Barnes’ crew will welcome the physicality in this one. Expect a lot of fouls, and a lot of late shot clock situations. Maryland gave Jans a great blueprint earlier this season. They were very physical and forced a lot of contact with Tennessee. 20+ fouls for each team. This really frustrated the Vols and led to a nail biter where Tennessee escaped by 3 points. I think we see a similar affair tonight.

Score Prediction: Tennessee 62 – Mississippi State 55

Michigan State -7 : Best Bet of the night. I like the Spartans to eviscerate Nebraska tonight. The market is very high on the Cornhuskers currently. I can’t blame them. Their recent resume is decent at the surface level. They took Purdue to OT, and then beat the hell out of Iowa on 12/29. However, both of these games were at home. Nebraska has been very underwhelming on the road this season. Outside of an emotional road performance where they knocked off their limping rival (Creighton), they have gotten absolutely torched on the road. 20 point loss in Carnesecca against St John’s (which is starting to look horrific), 16 point loss on the road in Bloomington, and a 15 point loss at KState. Their defense does not travel, and they get overwhelmed by more athletic teams on the road. Michigan State is very athletic, and now have their best offensive piece back in the fold. Malik Hall scored 11 points in 12 minutes the last time out, and we should see a minutes uptick tonight. I fully expect Sissoko to handle Derrick Walker in the post, and the guard play from Michigan State will overwhelm the Cornhusker backcourt. This will be over quickly IMO. Sparty big at the Breslin Center.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 73 – Nebraska 59

Utah State -6.5 : We got a good number here as well. I am seeing 7.5 to 8 at most places. I am not buying the homecourt Air Force is being touted with in the market. KenPom has them as the #2 homecourt advantage in the country. I just don’t see it. They have suffered losses to Texas A&M Commerce, Portland, and Nevada in Colorado Springs this season. Three non-con losses should probably knock your home court rating. Utah State has been absolutely fantastic this season, and I have them winning this game by 9 points. They have five double digit scorers, and are getting fantastic defensive efforts from role players such as Zee Hamoda and Trevin Dorius. The Aggies should rake on the glass, and I don’t see a good shooting performance from Heidbreder and others being enough to knock us off tonight. Trusting the Aggies in this first conference road spot.

Score Prediction: Utah State 73 – Air Force 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/29 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: The San Diego Union-Tribune)

Season Record: 76-56

Season Best Bet Record: 31-14

12/29 Card:

Alabama A&M +27.5

Iowa -4

San Diego +15.5

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Alabama A&M +27.5 : Alabama A&M has been playing up to their competition the last few times out. The Bulldogs have really ramped up their non-con schedule as we end 2022. They suffered defeats to Illinois and Vanderbilt before Christmas break, but had these games in nail biter territory for the Illini and Commodores deep into the 2H. They can credit that to their improved defense. They held Illinois to 42.1% from the field and forced 18 turnovers. The Bulldogs followed up that impressive defensive performance with holding Vanderbilt to 38.6% from the field, and forcing another 12 turnovers. Also, this team also continues to knock down the three ball. They are shooting 41% on the season after another 40% performance from distance against Vanderbilt. A&M has not lost a game by more than 21 this season, and I had this game at +22. I will take the 5.5 points of perceived value. Ohio State is a phenomenal team, but I like the way that the Bulldogs have brought a toughness to these “step-up” games. We could also potentially see a less intense Buckeyes performance after Christmas break in a game where they will comfortably lead throughout.

Score Prediction: Ohio State 81 – Alabama A&M 59

Iowa -4 : Best Bet of the night. This team is chomping at the bit to get back on the court and send a message. The Hawkeyes suffered the worst upset in CBB history in the eyes of Vegas last time out. They were 31.5 point favorites over Eastern Illinois, and lost by 9. They were completely embarrassed, and have admittedly seen their names dragged in the press over the last week. They weren’t able to get back out on the court quickly to make the public forget about that performance because that was the last game before Christmas break. We have not seen them since 12/21. I fully expect their best performance of the season tonight. Also, it helps getting your best player back in the fold. Fran McCaffery has said that Kris Murray is healed and ready to go at 100%. Also, his son Connor will be back as well. Kris will bring efficiency and stat production that the Hawkeyes will need, and Connor will bring the intensity and leadership needed to get the best out of this team in a game that Iowa really needs to win to avoid their season unraveling. This is not a knock against Nebraska. They are having a fine season. They will just be on the wrong end of an offensive onslaught from Iowa. They can really hang it out people when they get going. They rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency, and I fully expect them to play above that level tonight.

Score Prediction: Iowa 81 – Nebraska 70

San Diego +15.5 : This *is not* breaking news, but I have heard some chirping that this is the game that the Toreros plan on bringing Townsend and Delaire back in the lineup. San Diego has been very underwhelming in their absences. While I don’t have 100% certainty that they are back tonight, I had this number at +14 even with those two out. Adjusting for their return, I see it at +10. I am trusting that I have the Toreros covering even without Delaire and Townsend, but this is also a steal to lock in +15.5 now in the event that they are activated. The line will certainly have a sizable shift if so. I think that San Deigo can take a similar approach to Saint Mary’s that Oral Roberts did. We cashed on the Golden Eagles in that one. San Diego can hit the Gaels with an inside/out approach from Seikou Sisoho Jawara and Eric Williams Jr. Oral Roberts did that to great effect to slide under the number with Max Abmas and Vanover/Mwamba. The Toreros will need to use their athleticism to their advantage tonight. That is really the only major edge that they have in this one.

Score Prediction: Saint Mary’s 70 – San Diego 58

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/22 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Southeastern Conference)

Season Record: 72-52

Season Best Bet Record: 31-11

12/22 Card:

San Diego -4

Vandy/Alabama A&M o137

Creighton 1H -4

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San Diego -4 : Northridge does not have a win over a D1 opponent this season, and they certainly aren’t getting their first vs our Toreros. They could play this game on Mars. Isn’t happening. Go ahead and lock this in now. I like San Diego today even without Townsend and Delaire, but if one (or both) are activated the line will sky rocket. There isn’t much news out there in regards to their injuries and they are labeled as undisclosed. So, there is a chance we may get a gift of an activation tonight. Regardless, Northridge has absolutely no way to stop Eric Williams Jr. or Seikou Sisoho Jawara. The Matadors are 246th in the country in defensive efficiency, and simply cannot handle the caliber of those two players. They don’t have a good offense to compliment the bad defense, so there is no way that they keep up in this one. They shoot 42.3% from the field and 31.6% from three. Somehow, the offensive efficiency (299th) is rated even worse than their defensive metric. Don’t be scared of the injuries. San Diego can survive without them tonight.

Score Prediction: San Diego 72 – CSUN 65

Vandy/Alabama A&M o137 : Best Bet of the night. It looks like we will receive some great CLV here. The number is already up to 138.5. I would still play this to 139.5 as I said in a tweet. 140 and higher you start to lose value. I have this game at 144 points. I think Vanderbilt will be able to score at will. Alabama A&M is rated 262nd in defensive efficiency. Also, I think there are metrics that point to the Bulldogs being able to score enough to carry us over. Alabama A&M is ranked 22nd in pace in the country. Vanderbilt will happily run with an inferior team. The higher caliber team almost always has the advantage when there are extra possessions. So, I really believe that pace will be our friend tonight. Also, I like what I am seeing on three point metrics in this matchup. Alabama A&M is low key one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. They are shooting 41.3% from distance. That is on 92 makes in 11 games. Vanderbilt is also not great at guarding the three point line. They are 92nd in the country in opponent three point percentage, and 122nd in percentage of opponent points from the three point line. Last game before Christmas.. is Vandy really going to be locked in defensively? I love the over here.

Score Prediction: Vanderbilt 81 – Alabama A&M 63

Creighton 1H -4 : This was dangerously close to a Best Bet, but I liked the over in Vandy just a bit more. The Jays will get an inspired home crowd in Omaha tonight. The fans are really rallying together online to create a great atmosphere tonight to get Creighton back on track. Also, the return of Ryan Kalkbrenner cannot be understated. He is the absolute difference maker on this team. On both sides of the court. They also now have developed Fred King a bit, so he should be able to provide more valuable bench minutes comparative to when Kalkbrenner was healthy before. No real metrics to point to tonight, just a hunch that this crowd propels this Jays team to a nice halftime lead tonight. I am not confident in playing the full game. 8 is just too much in this matchup. Butler could definitely fight back in the 2H and backdoor this number.

Score Prediction: Creighton 38 – Butler 30

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/21 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Frogs Today)

Season Record: 71-50

Season Best Bet Record: 30-11

12/21 Card:

VA Tech/BC u134

UNC/Michigan u155

TCU +1.5

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Va Tech/BC u134 : I am scared of a VT assault that could carry us over this total, but I have to trust the data. Let’s start with pace. Virginia Tech comes into the game ranking 290th in pace, and BC isn’t too far ahead of them at 261. These teams like to walk the ball up the court and get into half-court sets, and really make an emphasis on stopping opponent fast breaks. The Virginia Tech defense has a MAJOR edge tonight. They come into this as a Top 50 defense in the country, and Boston College sits at 296th in offensive efficiency. If this game was in Blacksburg, I would just lay the points as well. VT is a strong lean for me, but just playing the under here. I could see a late BC flurry backdooring VT backers.

Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 70 – Boston College 59

UNC/Michigan u155 : I love the under in this matchup. We saw 124 points last year in this matchup. A lot of the same players will feature tonight. The number won’t be even close to that low, but I see a range of 146-150. Dickinson and Bacot have been going back and forth on podcasts this offseason/season, and it seems like they have had this one circled for a while. They want to go mano a mano in the post to help solidify who should be the All-American between the two. These two can command the ball in the post whenever they want from their teammates, and it should happen quite often tonight. Post work is lovely for an under. Especially, with two quality defenders engaged in stopping the other. I really worry about Michigan’s guard play. They will continue to struggle to score with high level opponents. On the other end, I can see UNC doing what they have done all year long and play to the quality of their opponent. Michigan has some length to bother Carolina defensively. As long as the Wolverines get back in transition, there is a chance they make life really tough on Carolina in the half court. We are playing on a neutral here, and neither team is comfortable with the rims at the Spectrum Center. That is a plus. A big plus after the clanking we saw from UF and Oklahoma last night. Hopefully, that continues.

Score Prediction: UNC 76 – Michigan 72

TCU +1.5 : Best Bet of the night. The Horn Frogs won’t be undervalued in the market for long, so take advantage of this while you can. TCU caught a lot of heat for beating Arkansas Pine Bluff by 1 in their opener, and then losing to Northwestern State a week later. Many have written them off. Not so fast my friend. All this has shown is just how crucial Damian Bough is to the success of the Horn Frogs. Bough did not feature in those games due to injury, and TCU is 4-0 in his return. Including, an impressive 13 point victory over Providence. Baugh is doing everything on the court for Jamie Dixon. Here is a snapshot of what he has done in those 4 games: 11.5 ppg / 50% 3pt / 5.3 rpg / 4.8 apg / 1.8 spg. This production is also freeing up Mike Miles Jr. He is finally starting to cook like we saw in the NCAA Tournament. Emmanuel Miller is also healthy and productive now. Everything is rounding into form for the Horn Frogs, and I will take advantage of the market before it catches up. Also, note that this game is not being played in Utah’s home arena. It is being played at Vivint Arena – home of the Jazz. It will still be a pro-Utes crowd, but hard to replicate a hostile atmosphere in an NBA gym. I am not giving Utah full homecourt in my handicapping tonight. Horn Frogs by 5.

Score Prediction: TCU 73 – Utah 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/20 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Maddie Washburn)

Season Record: 69-49

Season Best Bet Record: 30-10

12/20 Card:

Providence ML

Miami +3.5

Florida -2.5

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Providence ML : Trusting Big East home court here. This stat could be trivial, but Marquette is 0-3 in games decided in 5 points or less. The Golden Eagles have had a phenomenal season and have blown out some incredible opponents, but I feel like this metric could rear its ugly head tonight. The free throw line has caused a lot of these problems. They just are not getting to the free throw line. Marquette is 293rd in the country in points from the stripe. They are not getting to the line effectively enough, and are only shooting 69.1% as a team when they get there. They are 62.8% in their last three, so that metric is even trending downward coming into this one. Providence is 55th in the country in points from free throws, and are shooting at a 73.3% clip as a team. Free throws matter in close games, and I think the Friars edge Marquette in a close one due to the stripe. I had this game at -3, so will take the ML value.

Score Prediction: Providence 75 – Marquette 72

Miami +3.5 : Can UVA’s defense travel? I’m not so sure. They have only had one road test this season, and allowed Michigan to shoot 53.1% from the field. Including that outing, Michigan is only shooting 46% as a team this season. I think Ormier can find similar success to Dickinson and Howard tonight. Also, this is not a great matchup athletically at the guard position for UVA. Isaiah Wong will have his way with Clark. Look for him to drive Clark often. The Hurricanes also get a huge uptick in production from the three point line at home. They shoot it at 36.2% at home, comparatively to 28.2% on the road. UVA should not be laying 3.5 points in this matchup. I think the Canes win a close one, so I will gladly take the points. Let’s not forget. Miami led UVA at the half by 8 in Coral Gables last season and ended up letting it slip away for a 2 point Cavs victory. Revenge will be on their mind as well.

Score Prediction: Miami 70 – UVA 68

Florida -2.5 : Best Bet of the night. I smell a double digit victory for Florida here. A healthy Kyle Lofton is a biiiig problem for Gator opponents. Ohio felt that pain to the tune of a 34 point win for the Gators last time out. Lofton had 15 points & 7 assists in 25 minutes of work. He looked a lot closer to the Lofton that we have seen at Bonaventure over the years. With another 6 days off, he should be primed to carry Florida to a statement win in the Jumpman Invitational. Also, this is a juicy juicy juicy matchup for Colin Castleton. The Sooners rank 219th in the country in opponent percentage of points from 2. He is going to maul them in the post. This should be an easy wire-to-wire cover. Love the play.

Score Prediction: Florida 74 – Oklahoma 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/18 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Isaiah J. Downing)

Season Record: 66-47

Season Best Bet Record: 28-10

12/18 Card:

Norfolk State -5

Colorado State +11.5

Baylor -9.5

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Norfolk State -5 : The Spartans take Chris Paul’s HBCU’s Challenge very seriously. Robert Jones stated that this mini tournament is listed as a top priority to win in their goals for the season. Just as it was a year ago when they went 2-0. Norfolk has the two best players on the court in this one. Joe Bryant Jr. is a savvy veteran guard, and Kris Bankston is as springy as it gets in the country. The Spartans are going to win this game in transition. NC A&T is 309th in the country in turning over the basketball. They give the ball over on 21.2% of their possessions. Norfolk has four losses on the season, but three of them were to Top 10 opponents. The Spartans are better than their record, and take care of an inferior opponent on a neutral court.

Score Prediction: Norfolk State 76 – NC A&T 68

Colorado State +11.5 : Best Bet of the night. The Rams have had a couple of head scratching losses recently, but I feel that the week off has probably done them a big favor. They needed the added practice time with Isaiah Stevens back in the fold. Now, I feel like the offense will flow fluidly through him. We are getting a huge discount from the recent losses in this betting market. This line should be nowhere near 11.5. I had this as Saint Mary’s -6.5. Let’s not forget…The Rams eviscerated the Gaels in Fort Collins last season. A 74-58 point victory, in which Stevens scored 14 points. Nico Medved had a fantastic plan to combat the Gaels’ off-ball movement, and the closeouts from three were aggressive and effective. Saint Mary’s were only able to shoot 4/21 from distance. I think Medved can dial up another game plan to keep this one close after a week to prepare. I am very comfortable with this spread.

Score Prediction: Saint Mary’s 69 – Colorado State 63

Baylor -9.5 : The Baylor defense wasn’t up to Scott Drew’s standards in the early parts of this season, but that finally started to turn around after holding Gonzaga to only 63 points in one of their last two games before finals break. Baylor has had 12 days off, and I would imagine the Bears got a heavy dose of defensive practice sessions to continue to build off of the Gonzaga performance. This time off also gave Cryer and Flagler a chance to rest up. Baylor should be fully healthy for this game, and that will be a scary sight for Wazzou. The Bears will roll easily behind a pro-Baylor crowd in Dallas.

Score Prediction: Baylor 78 – Wazzou 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/16 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: University of Delaware Athletics)

Season Record: 63-44

Season Best Bet Record: 26-10

12/16 Card:

Delaware +8

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Delaware +8 : Best Bet and only play of the night. 3.5 points of value in regards to the number that I had for this game. I have this as Princeton -4.5. I firmly believe that the Blue Hens will be competitive in this game throughout. Jameer Nelson Jr. is playing at an elite level. The best basketball of his career. He has TWO 30 point outings in his last 5 games. He is also bringing it on the defensive end as well. 7 steals combined in his last two games. He is fully engaged in being a star for this team, which gives the Blue Hens a 1-2 punch with Jyare Davis. I think Davis’ biggest impact tonight will be on the defensive end in a matchup guarding Toson Evboumwan. He is the perfect defender to combat Tosun’s strengths. I also think this could be a tiny let down spot for Princeton. Iona was the biggest game on their non-con schedule. They led Rick Pitino and the Gaels by 10 points in the 2H, but suffered a late game collapse and walked away with a loss. Now, they have to try to get back up for a game against a team that is rolling into this matchup on a heater on the offensive side of the court. Don’t forget, many of these Blue Hens made it all of the way to the NCAA Tournament last season. They could be finally rounding into form before they hit their CAA schedule later this month. This should be an exciting game. Be confident getting the 8.

Score Prediction: Princeton 74 – Delaware 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/15 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Ray Soldano)

Season Record: 61-43

Season Best Bet Record: 25-10

12/15 Card:

PC -4.5

Chattanooga +6

Seattle -1

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PC -4.5 : I had this number at -7, so I will happily take the value in this early afternoon home spot. The Blue Hose’s 2-9 record is a bit misleading. They have played a pretty tough schedule thus far, and have competed as of late. In their last three games vs Wofford, CofC and South Carolina, PC was in a dog fight in all three of those games at some point in the 2H. They even held a lead over GG Jackson and South Carolina in the 2H. Elon has not had very many competitive basketball games this season. They are 0-3 on the road and lost those affairs by a combined 50 points. The Phoenix are rated out as 302nd in offensive efficiency, and 326th in defensive efficiency. I would lay points with pretty much any team in the country at home vs this squad. Trust the data.

Score Prediction: Presbyterian 70 – Elon 62

Chattanooga +6 : Best Bet of the night. Jake Stephens is the best player in the country that you have not heard about. He followed his coach from VMI over to Chattanooga, and he has not missed a beat. The 7′ Center is averaging 21.4 ppg to go along with 9.5 rpgs, 3apg, 2.1 bpg. He can quite literally do it all. The most intriguing attribute that Stephens has is his range. He is 7′ 275lbs and shoots 44.7% from three on 21 makes. This is coming off of a junior year where he hit at a 49% clip. This guy is a unicorn. MTSU could have a lot of trouble with Stephens tonight. They are a scrappy bunch on the defensive end, but they are a 6’7 army. Not much size and weight to throw at him. I think the 3 point line will be a major factor in the Mocs keeping this one close. Middle Tennessee State is 221st in the country in opponent points from the three point line. Chattanooga is 4th in the country in points from three pointers at 45.4%. The Mocs shoot 39% from distance, and have 120 makes in 10 games. The three ball will be our friend tonight. The Mocs could pull off an upset here.

Score Prediction: Middle Tennessee State 70 – Chattanooga 69

Seattle U -1 : The Redhawks will have too much offense for Oregon State tonight. Seattle currently ranks 70th in the nation in offensive efficiency, and Oregon State comes in at 256th. If the jerseys were swapped, the Seattle players would be laying more points in this matchup. I have Seattle winning this game by 5 points on a neutral. I am not giving Oregon State anything at all for a home court advantage. The Beaver fans have checked out on Wayne Tinkle. It is amazing how far they have fallen since their Cinderella Elite Eight run. 3-28 last year, and are staring down the path of another very disappointing season. The spread is telling you everything you need to know. Just play it.

Score Prediction: Seattle U 70 – Oregon State 65

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/13 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: USA Today Sports)

Season Record: 60-41

Season Best Bet Record: 24-10

12/13 Card:

Citadel/UNC o144

Texas Tech -17

Memphis/Alabama u152

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Citadel/UNC o144 : Best Bet of the night. Wow, we are certainly going to see some CLV here. Up to 147 at most places. The Citadel are one of the smaller teams in the nation. They allow their opponents to gain an offensive rebound on 32% of their possessions. That ranks 318th in the country. Hitting the offensive glass is the pillar of the Tar Heel attack. While they have not succeeded as much as normal in that area so far this season (mostly due to competition faced), I think they will boost those numbers considerably tonight behind strong nights from Bacot and Nance. Also, the Citadel rank 232nd in defensive efficiency. We could be pushing for free Bojangles biscuits at the Smith Center tonight. 100 piece is certainly in the range of possibility. I also believe there is a path for the Citadel to score tonight as well. The Heels rank 168th in defensive efficiency, and just not have shown a lot of effort there thus far. This has led to their opponents scoring 33.2% of their points from the 3 point line. The Citadel have a few shooters that can take advantage of open looks. Austin Ash (Iowa transfer) has 29 made threes this season, and Elijah Morgan is shooting 43.8% from distance. Pace will also be in our favor tonight. Citadel ran with the high octane offense of CofC last time out, and they will run again with UNC tonight. I like the Heels to cover the spread as well. However, I feel more confident in trusting the over.

Score Prediction: UNC 92 – Citadel 61

Texas Tech -17 : I really worry about Eastern Washington’s ability to score tonight in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are once again dominant on the defensive side of the court. They currently rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, and that number will only continue to rise. They are turning their opponents over on 21.5% of possessions, and that is bad news for an Eagles team that ranks 241st in turnovers per possession. The points off of turnovers metric will definitely be in favor of the Red Raiders tonight, and I also believe that they will feast at the line. Tech ranks 44th in the nation in points from free throws. Eastern Washington is 144th in the country in allowing opponent free throws, and their schedule has not seen anyone close to as physical as Texas Tech. I love the Red Raiders in this spot.

Score Prediction: Texas Tech 73 – Eastern Washington 51

Memphis/Alabama u152 : I love the defenses in tonight’s matchup. I think we will see a lot of dead ball turnovers which will be key for our under. The Tide come in ranked 24th in defensive efficiency. That is super impressive considering their gauntlet of an early season schedule. The number is also skewed due to allowing 101 to UNC in quadruple OT. In reality, their defense was pretty solid in that game. Memphis is no slouch either. The come in at 46th in defensive efficiency. Both teams also have a Top 25 metric in their cap on that side of the ball. Alabama is in the Top 25 for block percentage, and Memphis for steals per possession. This game should be physical, and we will see some free throws. Alabama is sub 70% from the line, and Memphis is riding just above it. Hopefully, we see a poor performance from the stripe in our favor. Lastly, I think Memphis will take an approach similarly to the one that I discussed with San Francisco last night. Their path to staying competitive in this game will be to play at their pace. They rank 117th in pace, and we will see them playing potentially slower tonight to combat Nate Oats’ wishes for the Tide to run and gun. I think we see a game in the low 70s, with one of the teams potentially finishing in the 60s. Would lean Memphis on the spread, but not playing it due to my respect for Bama’s home court at Coleman.

Score Prediction: Alabama 75 – Memphis 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!