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2/7 Card Write-Up

(photo: Heartland College Sports)

I will do my best to provide *at least* a daily group of 3-5 picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 (3-2) night. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay! 20/21 Season: 58%

Season Record: 216-203-14

Best Bet Record: 15-7

2/7 Card:

Drexel -4

Texas ML

Montana -2

Grambling -4.5

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Drexel -4 : Usually, I hate betting the team that won the first matchup of a conference battle. However, I think the 4 points are justified tonight. I would play this to -5. JMU is really banged up rolling into Philadelphia for this one. The most important absence will be Takal Molson. The senior guard meant so much to the Dukes on the offensive & defensive end. Speaking of defense, JMU continues to be horrible on that end of the floor. They rank almost dead last in the country in 2pt % defense. Credit to Jim Root over at the 3MW for pointing that out. Drexel is coming off of a long road trip schedule, and should be eager to put on a good performance in their first game back home. Dragon up.

Score Prediction: Drexel 74 – JMU 67

Texas ML : Best Bet siren. What a spot for the Longhorns. If not now, then when? I loved the way Texas responded to the ass beating in Lubock. The Longhorns absolutely dismantled a quality Cyclones team on Saturday. Now, it is time to get their marquee win of the season and get rolling on their path for a deep tournament run. Defense will be the key to victory tonight. The interior should be a very difficult place for KU to try to butter their bread with Bishop and Disu protecting the rim, and it will be hard for Braun and Agbaji to find room from distance with the pressure defense. I just have a hunch that Chris Beard plays chess tonight, while Bill Self plays checkers. Lastly, Kansas is also not the same team on the road in Big 12 play. Three point wins at K State & OU, while getting thumped in Lubbock in their most recent affairs. You mess with the Beard, you get the Horns (don’t sue me Rothstein)

Score Prediction: Texas 66 – Kansas 62

Montana -2 : Revenge SZN. The Grizz will be fired up to get this done tonight after dropping two devastatingly close ones to the Thunderbirds last year. Also, my analytics have the Grizz rated higher on the defensive end, and actually slightly higher on the offensive end as well. That may surprise some people. My favorite thing about Montana? They shoot 80 PERCENT from the free throw line. That is just as elite as it gets in basketball. No matter the level. That will be a big factor tonight in a close one.

Score Prediction: Montana 75 – Southern Utah 69

Grambling -4.5 : Alabama A&M is one of the worst offensively rated teams in my model. 37.7% from the field, 27.3% from distance & 67.5% from the line. Adding to that, they have a 9.8/14.3 ast/turnover ratio. This team is just dreadful. Grambling is a team that can get hot offensively at home and make some shots, and A&M just won’t be able to keep up. One last nugget. To go along with that horrible 3point%, they only have one player on the roster that has made 10+ threes on the season. It is impossible for them to shoot themselves back into games unless Garrett Hicks is in Steph Mode. Donte Jackson knows that and will have his guards denying everything coming his way. Grambling should win pretty easily here.

Score Prediction: Grambling 73 – Alabama A&M 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/4 Card Write-Up

(photo: The Coloradoan)

Season Record: 211-200-14

Best Bet Record: 14-6

2/4 Card:

Wright State -4

Colorado State -2

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Wright State -4 : You have to love the home advantage in this matchup tonight. As you know, this game was postponed from last night due to inclement weather. The Detroit players were forced to hang out in their hotel rooms for an extra day as they had already made the trip to Dayton. This may not mean much, but glad to have that scenario in our favor for tonight. Wright State has dominated Detroit historically as well. Last season, they won a back-to-back in Detroit by 23 & 13 points. Both teams returned big minutes from last season, so there is no reason to expect a huge difference. The Raiders can get Basile going easily, and there should be many fast break points to be had for Calvin and Holden. Wright State has a massive coaching advantage with Scott Nagy, and I expect the Nutter Center to be rocking on a Friday night. The Raiders have a very solid student section for a mid-major program. Keep an eye on Andrew Welage. He has been hitting big threes recently, and finding some form. He can be a key piece off of the bench if shots are going down.

Score Prediction: Wright State 82 – Detroit 70

Colorado State -2 : Looks like we will be gaining some massive CLV on this line. I am seeing the Rams at -4 at some books. Rightfully, so. I would have played this number to -5. This is the perfect “get right” spot for Colorado State after dropping back-to-back games. Moby Arena should be electric tonight, and that is bad news for the Aztecs. San Diego State has been downright awful on the road this season against stiff competition. They were blown out by Michigan and Utah State, and also dropped one at BYU which is starting to look more ugly as the losses pile up for the Cougars. This is also a major revenge spot for the Rams. They took their undefeated record to Viejas and got absolutely destroyed back in January. I think this will play out similarly to the Arizona/UCLA game from last night. Revenge will be served cold with a comfortable Rams victory. Look for David Roddy to have a big night. 15, 15, & 17 in his last three outings vs the Aztecs. He is a big game player. He knows they need this one.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 72 – SDSU 62

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/1 Card Write-Up

(photo: Tar Heel Times)

Season Record: 201-197-14

Best Bet Record: 11-6

2/1 Card:

Northwestern -5

UNC -2.5

St. John’s -3

Texas Tech -4.5

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Northwestern -5 : Have to feel for this Wildcat bunch. This was the year many deemed to be their best shot at making the tournament with their current group. They have suffered close loss, after close loss. However, I believe this is a great night/game to let out some of those frustrations. Rutgers has severe home/road splits as we all know by now. They are 1-7 straight up, and 1-4 ATS as a dog on the road. I think they will struggle to keep Nance off of the offensive glass, and Audige and Buie are shot makers inside of Welsh-Ryan arena. Rutgers will likely struggle to score on the road, and I like the Wildcats to pull this one out comfortably.

Score Prediction: Northwestern 70 – Rutgers 61

UNC -2.5 : Best Bet alert. I know Vegas is begging us to take the Tar Heels, but I don’t care. The square side wins every now and then. Louisville is just a complete dumpster fire. Chris Mack was relieved of his duties last week, and as of yesterday Malik Williams is suspended indefinitely. That is a MASSIVE loss for the matchup with the Tar Heels. As always, UNC is one of the top rebounding teams in the country. They are tied for 8th in total rebounds, and 9.6 of those are on the offensive glass. Armando Bacot has been the stalwart behind this, and has preyed on teams with undersized front courts. He had 18 rebounds against BC, and 19 rebounds against VT. The Cardinals do not have anyone averaging over 4.5 rebounds on the roster other than Williams. With his suspension, it should be a blood bath on the boards. I know North Carolina has been downright awful on the road, but second chance points can calm some nerves. Not to mention, the Heels played their best game of the season last time out. Hot hand + matchup mismatch = $

Score Prediction: UNC 80 – Louisville 70

St. John’s -3 : The Johnies! I absolutely love this matchup against a Providence team that is playing above their means. While Providence is walking into Queens with an 18-2 record, it is not quite as rosy of a resume as it seems. Per Ky McKeon from the Three Man Weave, the Friars have the highest recorded luck factor stat in KenPom since its inception. You can create your own luck at times, but chances are this team is due for a regression. You can even see that in the market. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5. We had the same feeling a few weeks ago when they rolled into Milwaukee and got their doors blown off. St. John’s won both matchups last season pretty easily, and I think we see that today as well. Champagnie is a bad matchup for Watson and Horchler. An easy double-double in both affairs last season. Johnies roll.

Score Prediction: St. John’s 77 – Providence 69

Texas Tech -4.5 : You think I’m not taking the Red Raiders on “Fuck Chris Beard Night”? Psh. Thankfully, the line came back to a more comfortable place after opening at -6.5. I think the bookmakers were as excited for this home spot as I was. However, I simply don’t see a way for Texas Tech to lose tonight. The Longhorns have shown all season that their offense is completely anemic on the road. I don’t see it traveling to maybe the most hostile environment in college basketball that we will see this season. Plus, the Red Raiders are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They are 7th in adjusted defensive efficiency. All of the signs are pointing to the black & red. Guns up!

Score Prediction: Texas Tech 67 – Texas 60

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/25 Card Write-Up

(photo: Wright State Athletics)

Season Record: 179-179-14

Best Bet Record: 7-2

1/25 Card:

Richmond/URI o137.5

Duke -11

Wright State ML

Buffalo +5

Southern Illinois +13

Wyoming +5

Arizona -2

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Richmond/URI o137.5 : This number is too small for a multitude of reasons. Look no further than last year’s matchup. Both teams virtually brought back the same rosters this season, and played to an 80-73 finish last year. The pace was up and down, and both teams were able to get to the foul line. I certainly think they will be able to do so again today. Grant Golden has an edge on the URI post defenders when he pulls them out to the perimeter on offense, and the URI big men have an advantage backing down Golden and others with their back to the basket in the post. The defense will not be superb on either side. Also, I like both backcourts to get open looks from three. They made 14 combined threes last season, and I think we see 18+ today.

Score Prediction: Richmond 74 – URI 71

Duke -11 : Duke has just simply blown out everyone they have faced at home, outside of their blunder with Miami. With the Cameron Crazies back this season, Cameron has turned back into the formidable home fortress. No Keels you say? I say no problem in this one. Duke handled Syracuse by 20 points at home over the weekend without Keels, and I think they have a similar advantage in the post tonight against Clemson as they did with the Orange. Paolo will be a problem for PJ Hall on both sides of the court, and there is nobody on the Tigers roster than can handle Duke’s 7’er, Mark Williams. Williams has been on an absolute tear lately. 16.3ppg/8.3rpg/4bpg over his last three contests. Look for him to push 20 & 10 tonight, while mixing in some balls being swatted into orbit against an undersized Clemson team. Also, Duke just tends to pound Clemson at Cameron. *insert Zion 360 gif*

Score Prediction: Duke 76 – Clemson 60

Wright State ML : Best bet of the night. The Raiders are finally starting to shape up like the team I thought they would be in the preseason. They have won 9 of their last 10 heading into BB&T Arena tonight. The Raiders had to play a back-to-back here last season due to the Covid affected schedule, and they split the two games with the Norse. The same crop of players will be be scared heading back in there tonight. The Raiders have a massive talent edge. Tanner Holden is a legitimate NBA prospect, and he is seriously playing like it. The 6’6 guard is averaging 20.6 ppg on 50.2 FG% ; 38.1 3p% ; 82.6 FT% splits. You do not see this very often at the collegiate level. Also, Wright State has the best post player in the game as well. Grant Basile is averaging 18 & 9 on the season, with close to 2 blocks per game as well. He was the Raiders leading scorer in the win over the Norse last season, and I expect him to have a big big night tonight.

Score Prediction: Wright State 76 – Northern Kentucky 69

Buffalo +5 : The Bulls didn’t get off to the start they wanted in MAC play. However, the 0-2 start has been followed by 4 wins in a row. I like this winning streak to continue into tonight. I think the Rockets will have serious trouble defending Josh Mballa and Jeenathan Williams. JT Shumate and Setric Milner are just not athletic enough to get the job done on them. The two Bulls grabbed a combined 23 rebounds in last years matchup between the two sides. Mballa had 9 of those on the offensive glass. Buffalo’s athleticism and tenacity get them a huge road win tonight on their journey to claim a MAC title.

Score Prediction: Buffalo 78 – Toledo 74

Southern Illinois +13 : Too many points for the Ramblers to be laying against a (finally) healthy Salukis squad. Loyola has been on tilt in January. Two overtime wins, and a 10 point loss at home to Missouri State. If you are going to give me 13 points with a competent team, then I have to take them. The Salukis are shooting 36% from three as a team, and have four players that have made at least 28 threes on the season. This outside shooting should keep us relatively close in this one. Just have to avoid the one big run..

Score Prediction: Loyola Chi 68 – Southern Illinois 59

Wyoming +5 : The disrespect by Vegas continues. The correction will come. However, I will take my five points going into this one. We will ride this Cowboy train until the wheels fall off. Boise is a bit of “fools gold” right now in my opinion, and their free throw percentage will inevitably bite them in the ass soon. Hope it’s tonight!

Score Prediction: Wyoming 69 – Boise State 67

Arizona -2 : You may have seen Rothstein’s Tweet yesterday “Arizona is SECOND nationally in scoring, FIRST in assists, and FIRST in rebounds. Ridiculous. Wildcats have won 14 of 16 games by double figures.” However, if you have been following me.. you know I have been a believer in the Wildcats all year (and hold a national title ticket on them). I simply think they are the class of the Pac 12, and I welcome going into battle with them at the Pavilion tonight. UCLA was on the ropes against Colorado last time out. Juzang had to bail them out down the stretch. I certainly don’t believe they will be afforded that opportunity against one of the best teams in the country tonight. My title ticket will look even sweeter after tonight..

Score Prediction: Arizona 78 – UCLA 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/18 Card Write-Up

(photo: Stadium)

Season Record: 162-159-12

1/18 Card:

Kansas -3

Bonnies +2

Iona -2

VCU -2

Duke -5

Northwestern +3

Syracuse -3

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Kansas -3 : The Tanner Groves Revenge Game! This silky smooth stretch forward will not be catching the Jayhawks off guard tonight. Groves lit Kansas up for 35 last season in the NCAA tournament while playing for Eastern Washington. The Eagles led for the majority of that game, but Kansas was able to pull it out in the end. That is not a game that KU could possibly forget. Bill Self definitely has been showing tape of that to his team prior to tonight’s matchup. They will be challenged to shut him down, and I think they have the tools to do so. Also, it is worth noting that McCormick got the better on Groves on the glass. Lastly, Braun & Agbaji live off of hostile road crowds, and should lead us to victory tonight in this rivalry game.

Score Prediction: Kansas 75 – OU 68

St. Bonaventure +2 : Not a huge matchup edge, but if you are going to give me points on the Bonnies Redemption Tour.. then gosh almighty (miss you Roy) I’ll take the points. Bonaventure absolutely waxed the 2nd best team in the league, VCU, last time out, and I think they can carry that momentum into tonight. Dayton always has a rocking home crowd, but the senior lead Bonnies won’t be phased. Close one, but St. Bonaventure gets a huge road W to add to the resume.

Score Prediction: St. Bonaventure 69 – Dayton 65

Iona -2 : Monmouth has been absolutely pathetic returning from their Covid pause. The pauses have affected teams in different ways, but the Hawks have been a case of steep decline. An 84-48 loss at Marist is just horrific. Iona is not the team you want to “get right” against. I really think that the edge will be won downlow in the Nelly Junior Joseph vs Walker Miller matchup. Miller is at a significant athletic disadvantage, and he has not face anyone like Nelly to start this season. Early foul trouble for Miller could lead to a big Iona edge on the glass. I believe the Gaels come in and steal an important road win.

Score Prediction: Iona 76 – Monmouth 69

VCU -2 : Defense, defense, defense. The Rams will bring their high pressure defense right into the mouth of Davidson’s jump shooting offense. VCU ranks 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency. That, paired with a rocking home crowd, should be enough to unsettle a Davidson team that does not like to be pressured. Loyer, Jones and Brajkovic will really struggle with the supreme athletic advantage that VCU has over them. Also, I just really like VCU to get what they want on the offensive end. As good as VCU is on the defensive end, Davidson is just as bad. 197th in defensive efficiency. VCU reminds people that they are here to stay in the race for the A-10 Title tonight.

Score Prediction: VCU 70 – Davidson 65

Duke -5 : Best Bet of the night. While we know Duke has struggled a bit in Tallahassee, the talent gap has not been this wide between the two sides in quite some time. Also, FSU is weirdly inept in the post this season. You usually think of length and physicality with Leonard Hamilton’s teams, but they are really struggling on the glass this season. They are allowing their opponents offensive rebounds on 28.4% of their possessions. That ranks 251st worst in the country. Duke gets an offensive rebound on 30.4% of their possessions. This is a terrible matchup for FSU. To make matters worse, Leonard Hamilton has said he “doubts very seriously” that Malik Osbourne plays tonight, per Josh Graham. If that is the case, the Noles are without their leading rebounder and 2nd leading scorer. I am usually not a fan of backing Duke on the road, and that is probably why the number is where it is.. but if you look deeper, this a great spot for the Dookies.

Score Prediction: Duke 78 – Florida State 68

Northwestern +3 : Trap spot for the Badgers. Are they better than projected? Yes. Is Johnny Davis the Player of the Year so far? Yes. Are they the 8th best team in the country? I say no. We faded them on the road last time out and had Maryland PK. The Badgers stole it away at the end and won by a point. We won’t let them do it tonight! Thank you Vegas for giving me three. Obviously, Wisconsin is not the same team outside of the Kohl Center. I know Pete Nance is questionable to play tonight, but I just have a feeling he suits up in a crucial game for the Wildcats. He is a matchup NIGHTMARE for the Badgers if he does indeed go. He is too tall for Wahl, and too athletic for Crowl. I really love this edge if he plays. Lastly, the Wildcats are coming into this game feeling great after a breakout performance in East Lansing. I think they keep the good vibes rolling tonight with a massive home upset.

Score Prediction: Northwestern 70 – Wisconsin 68

Syracuse -3 : It has made me a sucker, but I refuse to believe this Syracuse team is as bad as their results are. They desperately need this win tonight in the Carrier Dome, and I think they get it done. Gut feel on this one.

Score Prediction: Syracuse 73 – Clemson 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/17 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Journal & Dispatch)

Season Record: 159-158-12

1/17 Three Ball:

Purdue +2

Wyoming +3

Drake -1.5

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Purdue +2 : Best Bet of the day. Illinois has had a great start to the season, and always play well in Champaign. However, Purdue is a bad matchup for the Illini. Especially, in regards to depth. Purdue is running 9-10 guys deep, while Illinois only had 6 players play over 7 minutes last time out against Michigan. This is key because Purdue ranks 17th nationally in opponents fouls per possession. 28% of their possessions result in the other team fouling. The Illini will be up the creek without a paddle if they get in foul trouble. Also, I like that Purdue has Williams and Edey to throw at Kofi. If he is neutralized, this could be a comfortable win for the Boilermakers. Purdue looked excellent last time out against Nebraska. Very similar to the team that started off so hot at the beginning of this year. I think they have figured it out. Noon tip on a Monday is not doing Illinois any favors. Purdue reminds us who they are today.

Score Prediction: Purdue 75 – Illinois 70

Wyoming +3 : Keep doubting my Cowboys, Vegas. We will continue to cash these tickets. Graham Ike will wear out Nevada in the post. Washington and Baker seem to always be in foul trouble for the Wolfpack, and that is not a good characteristic to have when facing a Cowboys team that is excellent at getting to the line. Wyoming is 5th in the country at opponent fouls per possession. Also, like Illinois, Nevada is thin in their rotations after Bramah left the program earlier this season. The Cowboys win outright tonight. Check the free throw splits in the box score after the final whistle to see why.

Score Prediction: Wyoming 76 – Nevada 70

Drake -1.5 : The Bulldogs will go as far as Roman Penn takes them. Thankfully, he was able to come back from injury way sooner than expected. He finally looked like his old self in Drake’s impressive victory over Illinois State last time out. Penn had 16 points and 6 assists in this victory. If he brings that play into tonight, Drake should have no problems getting this W. Also, I really love the advantage that Brodie and Murphy will have on the glass in this one. Should have several second chance opportunities against an undersized Salukis squad.

Score Prediction: Drake 70 – Southern Illinois 65

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/14 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Season Record: 144-145-12

1/14 Three Ball:

Siena tto 63

St. Bonaventure -2.5

Richmond PK & o145.5

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Siena tto 63 : Thought about taking the points with Siena, but I like this tto. I am not a believer in the Marist defense. They have allowed 63 points in 11 of the 14 games they have played this season, and Siena has gone over this total in 4 out of 5. There were a lot of fouls in both matchups last season, and I like Siena to get to the line after doing so 21 times last time out against Fairfield. Number is simply too low.

Score Prediction: Marist 69 – Siena 67

St. Bonaventure -2.5 : With VCU’s steam in the public market paired with their fiery form, the Bonnies sitting as a favorite in this one without any movement towards the Rams is telling. VCU needs to utilize turnovers into fast break points to be effective in this one, but I think Kyle Lofton is one of the best PG’s in America to help the Bonnies break their pressure. Also, The Reilly Center is one of the best home court advantages in the country. This team is backed in a massive way. I believe the home court advantage, plus the veteran guard play, will get the Bonnies home.

Score Prediction: St. Bonaventure 69 – VCU 64

Richmond PK & over 145.5 : Statement win time for the Spiders. They have severely underperformed this season, but they always show up for a big game at the Robins Center. The Spiders have matchup advantages all over the court. Jacob Gilyard vs Foster Loyer ; Tyler Burton vs – (nobody can guard him on Davidson) ; Grant Golden vs Luka Brajkovic all favor the Spiders from a skill/athleticism perspective. These teams have very similar rosters from last season, and Richmond won in Davidson in the only matchup of the season. They did so while shooting 57% from the field. This Davidson roster just simply cannot defend the Spiders. Best bet of the night. I think Davidson could find some room behind the perimeter in this one, so I also like the over. 80-74 in the matchup last season, and I think we land right around that number again.

Score Prediction: Richmond 80 – Davidson 73

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/13 Starting Five Write-Up

(photo: Butler University Athletics)

Season Record: 143-141-12

1/13 Starting Five:

Boston U -2

Ohio State +3.5

Oklahoma State +7.5

Butler ML -120

Georgia State +1

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Boston U -2 : Boston finally got back on track against American. The offense was humming, and the defense really picked it up as well. My preseason pick to win the Patriot still has it all ahead of them. Army’s defense reared it’s ugly ahead again last time out as they got blown out by Colgate. They now rank 213 in defensive efficiency. Boston will be able to take advantage of that with elite backcourt scoring, to go along with Sukhmail Mathon’s dominance in the post. The Terriers simply outscore the Black Knights in this one.

Score Prediction: Boston 74 – Army 68

Ohio State +3.5 : I have Ohio State graded as a -3 favorite on a neutral court in this matchup. I obviously will not give the Badgers 6.5 points for playing in the Kohl Center, so we will take the value play here. Also, I love grabbing this number with the form that E.J Liddell & Malaki Branham are in. E.J. had 34 points w/ 5/7 shooting from distance last time out. It is a wrap if this tool is added to the post moves he possesses. Malaki Branham has also taken a big step in his freshman season. He is averaging over 24 ppg in the last three games, and dominating at the free throw line. He was 13/14 from the stripe against Northwestern, and is shooting 92% on the season. Lastly, Ohio State has a significant three point advantage in this matchup. Wisconsin is shooting 29% on the year with 98 makes in 15 games, and Ohio State is shooting 39% on 121 makes in 13 games. That will prove to be the difference tonight. Buckeyes in a close one.

Score Prediction: Ohio State 71 – Wisconsin 70

Oklahoma State +7.5 : Let down spot for the Red Raiders. The Cowboys are not the team you want to play coming off of huge emotional upsets of Kansas and Baylor. The Pokes will pressure you, get physical, and make you work. Also, Mike Boyton has also been a thorn for the Red Raiders in recent seasons. The Cowboys have won 3 out of the last 4. I like them to keep it close tonight.

Score Prediction: Texas Tech 69 – Oklahoma State 65

Butler ML : This game will be decided by the turnover margin. Georgetown is one of the sloppiest teams in the country. 281tst in the country in allowing turnovers at 14.5 per game. Butler seems to have figured their issues out in regards to taking care of the ball. They only surrendered 6 turnovers to Xavier last time out. I think Butler gets more looks at the basket in this one due to the turnover disparity. Also, Butler had one of their best shooting nights of the season last time out. 28/56 vs Xavier. Georgetown has a significantly worse defense than Xavier, so the Bulldogs should continue their improvement on shot making. Lastly, Butler will control the pace of play in this one. They don’t want to run with Georgetown, and I do not like Georgetown in the half court. You need this one, LaVall Jordan. Deliver for us.

Score Prediction: Butler 74 – Georgetown 67

Georgia State +1 : Guard play, guard play, guard play. The Panthers sneakily have one of the best backcourts in the country. Not only can they score the basketball, but I really love the way Georgia State pressures their opponent. They are averaging 9.4 steals per game, and I expect them to get several fast break baskets tonight. We need Jaylen Thomas to stay out of foul trouble and rebound the basketball tonight. This is a big one, and I expect him to come ready to play. Panthers get a key road win.

Score Prediction: Georgia State 75 – South Alabama 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/12 Starting Five Write-Up

(photo: The San Diego Union-Tribune)

Season Record: 140-140-11

1/12 Starting Five:

Xavier +2

Duke -4

Colorado St. / Utah St. u150

St. John’s +11

VT +2

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Xavier +2 : Xavier is now the favorite in this one after money came in overnight. Rightly so. It may be a hot take, but I personally feel that the Musketeers are better than Nova this season. They especially will be at the Cintas Center. The X-Men led for the majority of the first matchup on the road, but Fortune 500’ers got hot at the end and stole it away. Tonight will be much different. I predict a wire-to-wire victory for Xavier. Xavier is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite, and Nova is 0-2 ATS as a road dog. Love this revenge spot.

Score Prediction: Xavier 72 – Villanova 67

Duke -4 : I like this bounce back spot for Duke. It looks like we will receive CLV on this early lock as well. Wake Forest will have no problems playing with tempo, and that should ease Duke into their first ACC road game of the season. I believe the key to this game will be Duke’s defensive advantages against Jake LaRavia. Duke comes in ranked 32nd in the country in defensive efficiency, and will have an athletic advantage over LaRavia with all of the bodies they can throw at him. Duke does everything well. I am willing to toss out the Miami game from my memory. For now..

Score Prediction: Duke 79 – Wake Forest 72

Colorado St / Utah St u150 : I see this game being played in the high 60s or low 70s. Two great coaches, with above average defenses. A lot of sets will be ran tonight. You won’t see as much run and gun as this number predicts. Utah comes in 132nd in pace (has risen recently due to opponents), and Colorado State comes in at 255th. The matchup points to an under. 150 is a high total. If we lose, we lose.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 74 – Utah State 69

St. John’s +11 : Simply too many points. We are not seeing the same UConn that we saw in Atlantis. They have dropped 3 of 5, and are limping into this game. The Johnnies have been disappointing as well, but they have only been blown out by Kansas this season. In a Big East battle, I expect Posh and Julian to keep this one close. No real data to point to, just a gut feel on this one.

Score Prediction: UConn 80 – St. John’s 74

Virginia Tech +2 : Fading UVA again. Shocker. However, this is more about Virginia Tech. This certainly has not been the season many predicted for Mike Young’s Hokies. The Hokies have been outclassed from a rebounding/athleticism aspect in all of their losses this season. They won’t experience that tonight against UVA. Those two areas should be on an even playing field. Storm Murphy will be able to operate more effectively against a smaller/slower Kihei Clark, and I really believe that Keve Aluma will be able to cause a ton of problems for Jayden Gardner on both sides of the court. You pair those two matchups with a monster outside shooting advantage, and that has me thinking that the Hokies get their first ACC win of the season. At 0-3, they are desperate. I love backing a hungry dog. Let’s go Hokies!

Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 62 – UVA 60

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/11 Card Write-Up

(photo: Times Observer)

Season Record: 135-138-11

1/11 Card:

St. Bonaventure -9

Bowling Green +10

JMU & Northeastern o140.5

Ole Miss +5

WVU -3

Auburn +3

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St. Bonaventure -9 : I feel sorry for La Salle. Back-to-back games against tournament level teams that are eager to come off of a pause and put a beat down on someone. Unfortunately, they are the sacrificial lamb tonight just as they were for VCU. It was over from jump street when VCU arrived in Philly. The Rams held a 20ish point lead for the entirety of the game. It will be more of the same tonight. Mark Schmidt will have a great game plan to attack the 188th ranked team in defensive efficiency. Also, Kyle Lofton is finally fully healthy. Look for the senior-leader to have a monster performance tonight.

Score Prediction: St. Bonaventure 78 – La Salle 60

JMU/Northeastern o140.5 : I like the way that both teams have played in their most recent two games in regards to the total. Not a lot of effective 2 point defense from either team, and improving on their offensive efficiency ratings on the other end. There are mismatches that I believe both teams can exploit in this one. The Dukes should control the paint, and Northeastern has the outside shooting to keep them in it with the emergence of Notre Dame transfer, Nikola Djogo. He has been on a tear from distance since the beginning December. Close game, and should get some late fouls. We go over the total here.

Score Prediction: JMU 76 – Northeastern 71

Bowling Green +10 : Looks like we will receive CLV on this one after locking it in early last night. So, that means you should fade. In all seriousness, the line has moved to +8 and I think that is just. I personally had it in the 6.5-7 range. The Falcons are just not who they were earlier in the season. They are finally healthy and are stacking up quality performances. There is not a natural defender on Ohio for Daeqwon Plowden, and he has shooters everywhere around him should Ohio decide to double team. Ohio shouldn’t have any trouble scoring however they want tonight, but the Falcons are going to stay right there with them. We sneak inside the number here.

Score Prediction: Ohio 80 – Bowling Green 73

Ole Miss +5 : Fading Texas A&M off of their Arkansas win. Maybe I am wrong, but I am just not a huge fan of the Aggies being 5 point favorites over a quality Ole Miss team. Their shot quality metrics are also pointing to a huge regression. Jarkel Joiner has had a couple of days off to rest, and he should be able to give us at least 20-25 minutes tonight. Ole Miss is the better team, and I will gladly take the points in a fade TAMU spot following an emotional upset.

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 68 – TAMU 65

WVU -3 : Oklahoma State coming off of their big KU upset. Home West Virginia. The perfect concoction. Country roads, take me home…

Score Prediction: WVU 69 – Oklahoma State 64

Auburn +3 : This spot screams Alabama, but I am not ready to let them off of the hook. Their turnovers and shot selection would have to get TREMENDOUSLY better to take down Auburn tonight. I just don’t see that happening with the hectic style that Bruce Pearl convinces every opponent to play in. Also, Auburn just has a monster advantage in the interior. Offensively and defensively. There will be no answers for Walker Kessler or Jabari Smith from the Tide. That will be the difference. Auburn with the Iron Hoops upset. Sorry Bama fans, no relief from your CFP loss tonight.

Score Prediction: Auburn 81 – Alabama 79

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!