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2021 NCAA Tournament First Four Write-Up

(photo: The Salt Lake Tribune)

The best time of the year is here! This is your new home for March Madness betting previews. Please follow/like/subscribe if you are sniping with us!

Season Record: 235-168-6

3/18 First Four Card:

Texas Southern Pick’Em

Wichita State Pick’Em

App State -2.5

Michigan State -1.5

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Texas Southern Pick’Em : What an impressive finish to the season it was for the Tigers. Knocking off two previously undefeated SWAC teams, Jackson State and Prairie View A&M, on their way to the conference title. While these were upsets and a bit shocking, Texas Southern is no slouch. They rank 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and also are in the top tier of offensive rebounding teams in the country. In a close battle between 16 seeds in the First Four, we will hope that these statistics will be put to good use and that we come out with a W!

Score Prediction: Texas Southern 67 – Mount St. Mary’s 65

Wichita State Pick’Em : It was just reported that ShanQuan Hemphill is expected to play for Drake in this matchup. While this may have casual bettors running to the books to back the Bulldogs, I am going the other way. Inserting Hemphill back into the lineup after Drake has already been playing without him and Roman Penn for the last month is not a recipe for success during the tournament. While they didn’t have the option, playing Hemphill in a few games before the tournament could have reacclimated him into the rotation with time for everyone to get comfortable. Too many things will have to go right for that to be a success. Also, if you follow me you know my appreciation for Tyson Etienne for Wichita State. This do-it-all point guard is exactly the type of player you want leading your team into the big dance. He has proven that he can will them to a win over Top 10 Houston, and this Drake squad without Roman Penn will be no match. Give me the Shockers!

Score Prediction: Wichita State 71 – Drake 68

Appalachian State -2.5 : Faaaaade the MEAC. This is my favorite play of the night. I think the level of basketball this season in the MEAC was very below average from normal years. No matter who won this conference tournament, the team would have been a fade for me in a First Four matchup. Also, App State went through a lengthy Covid pause during the middle of the season, and came out of the other side stronger. The have won 5 out of their last 6 games, and stormed through a decent Sun Belt conference tournament in order to be playing on Thursday night. There is one player to keep your eye on for the Mountaineers. Senior, Michael Almonacy, is playing the best basketball of his career. He averaged 21.8 points and 6.5 boards in the four game conference championship run. This included shooting 20/39 from distance. Norfolk State will be playing catch up quickly if Almonacy stays on fire.

Score Prediction: App State 70 – Norfolk State 63

Michigan State -1.5 : This will be a very public play, but it is the right play. Tom Izzo is not someone to fade in March. Outside of the Maryland performance, Sparty has been playing great basketball. I like Mick Cronin and the guards for the UCLA, but the absences of Chris Smith and Jalen Hill will loom large again in this one. UCLA has lost four in a row, and it is mostly attributed to getting dominated down low. Cody Riley is the last line of defense in the post from the players we expected to get a lot of minutes at the beginning of this season. If he gets in foul trouble, the Bruins are down to Mac Etienne who is a 6’9 215lbs-ish freshman that should not have gotten thrown into this much action this season. I am sure he will be a fine player in the future, but he definitely needs some time in the system. Even if Riley is able to stay out of foul trouble, the offensive glass will be dominated by the Spartans if the Bruins roll with their standard 4 guard lineup. Sparty loves to attack the rim, and they will wear down an undermanned Bruins side in this one. UCLA might lead early, but Tom Izzo will move on in the end.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 71 – UCLA 66

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/10 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Bucknell Athletics)

I will do my best to provide a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay!

Season Record: 215-158-6

3/10 Three Ball:

Syracuse -2

Louisville +3

Bucknell +12

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Syracuse -2 : I really love the Orange to make a run in this tournament. I think they win tonight, and will give UVA a real battle in the quarters. Syracuse is just not a great matchup for NC State. The Pack shot 20-24 from the line in their meeting with Cuse in the Carrier Dome last month, and still lost the game by 9 points. Jim Boeheim is a tournament wizard, and I trust him not to go home in the first round while his team is hovering around the bubble. Boeheim, Griffin and Guerrier are playing great basketball right now, and I expect the 2-3 zone to cause problems for the Wolfpack like it has earlier in the season. Cuse wins this one by two possessions or more.

Score Prediction: Syracuse 74 – NC State 69

Louisville +3 : Everyone and their uncle will be on Duke today. Vegas knows that, and they are taking advantage of it by making Duke a 3 point favorite. The casual betters will take Duke on a one possession spread. However, Louisville really should be favored here. Duke really gave this team their best punch in a OT loss at Cameron. Matthew Hurt had 37 points for heavens sakes. I trust Carlik Jones to carry Louisville to a win today, and I trust my gambling knowledge on fading the public.

Score Prediction: Louisville 71 – Duke 69

Bucknell +12 : This line is out of touch. It got bet down overnight, but I will still take it at +12. I would probably take it at +10 if you are reading this late. Colgate looks great on KenPom and have a 12-1 record. However, that record is comprised of beating the same three teams 12 times. It is a little misleading. Also, Bucknell is 5-0 straight up and ATS with John Meeks in the lineup. He is healthy and ready to go today. He is averaging 25.8ppg through those 5 contests, and I expect a big outing from him tonight. Colgate will get the W, but John Meeks will end the season 6-0 ATS.

Score Prediction: Colgate 79 – Bucknell 71

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/9 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: McNeese State University)

Season Record: 214-153-6

3/9 Card:

McNeese State -2.5

McNeese State o145.5

Notre Dame 1H -4.5

Oral Roberts +2

Gonzaga 1H -7.5

Gonzaga 1H -13.5

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McNeese State -2.5 & o145.5 : McNeese State is a team with sneaky good metrics. They rank 40th in the nation in team assists per game. That is damn good for a team out of the Southland Conference. They also shoot 50% from the field, and 39% from distance. These metrics will lead to an offensive explosion tonight against a SE Louisiana team that allows 78 points per game. McNeese scored 95 & 88 in the two matchups earlier this season, and they should push the mid-high 80s again tonight. KeyShawn Feazell is a 6’9 Mississippi State transfer that has averaged a double-double down low this season. Working an inside-out game with him and the surrounding shooters will be a recipe for success. SE Louisiana will get their points as well. Both teams are in the top 100 in pace. We should see a McNeese State cover paired with an over.

Score Prediction: McNeese State 85 – SE Louisiana 77

Notre Dame 1H -4.5 : Mike Brey time! Since joining the ACC, Notre Dame has been a thorn in the sides of the perennial powers in the ACC Tournament. Brey knows how to get the best out of his guys during tournament season. This year, the Fighting Irish will need to win the conference tournament to have a chance at the big dance. They should come out fiery with confidence after their Senior Day performance against FSU. They outclass Wake Forest in every facet of the game. We will go with the 1H to avoid some late game heroics by Wake Forest to try to save their season.

Score Prediction: 1H Notre Dame 36 – Wake Forest 29

Oral Roberts +2 : We have bet the Golden Eagles all season long, and we are going to do it again tonight! They have been so good to us, and I really love the matchup tonight against NDSU. Oral Roberts is a fast paced team that can straight up bomb it from three. The Golden Eagles are shooting it at 39% from distance with some serious volume. NDSU does not have an outside threat, and can really struggle to score at times. Oral Roberts will definitely get hurt inside, but if Obanor stays out of foul trouble.. the Golden Eagles win this game. We all know what Max Abmas brings to the table, but Kareem Thompson has really stepped up into another scoring threat from the guard position. He is shooting 43% from distance, and had 22 points against SDSU in the semis. Let’s get our boys to the big dance!

Score Prediction: Oral Roberts 74 – NDSU 70

Gonzaga -7.5 / -13.5 : I am not sure why they are not pushing this spread closer to 20, but I will take advantage of it. This team is historic folks. I have been telling you this since Week 1 of the season. They are balanced in every area with elite talent. BYU is no match for them. Especially, with their feet firmly planted into the tournament field without needing an automatic bid. If BYU needed this one to get into the tournament, then sure I would be a little hesitant. However, this should be the third beat down of the season. The Zags led by 30 and 22 late in the previous matchups, and we should see something similar tonight. If you were worried about Gonzaga not taking the WCC Tournament serious, they proved you wrong last night. They smoked Saint Mary’s wire-to-wire. We will see as similar display tonight.

Score Prediction: Gonzaga 85 – BYU 67 (42-30 at half)

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/8 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Hofstra University Athletics)

Season Record: 210-152-6

3/8 Starting Five:

Hofstra -4.5

Oral Roberts +5.5

UNCG -4.5

NDSU -2.5

Pepperdine +9

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Hofstra -4.5 : Jalen. Ray. That is all that you need to know. We are riding the Ray train for the 2nd day in a row in the CAA Championship. Ray could easily go for 30 tonight, and we have Tareq Coburn to supplement the scoring. The guard tandem is the best in the CAA in my opinion. Also, Elon is undersized. Isaac Kante averages 10.3 rebounds per game on the season, and should eat on the boards against a team that has guards leading their rebounding attack. To pair with being undersized, Elon does not shoot (41.3% FG / 32.7% 3point) or assist (10.9/game) the ball well at all. I feel good laying the 4.5 points here.

Score Prediction: Hofstra 74 – Elon 66

Oral Roberts +5.5 : I’m going to take 5.5 points with the Golden Eagles any time that you will give them to me in the Summit. As I have said many times before, Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor could get big time minutes at any program in the country. That is not even up for debate anymore. Oral Roberts split the season series with SDSU, but there was a glaring standout in the box score. Abmas lit them up for 42 in the first game, and 30 in the 2nd. If not for some Obanor foul trouble, Oral may have swept the season series. Give me the Golden Eagles and 5.5 points tonight.

Score Prediction: Oral Roberts 81 – SDSU 78

UNCG -4.5 : Mercer has been an incredible story through the SoCon Tournament on their way to this championship birth. However, four games in four days will come back to bite them against the Spartans. Wes Miller’s high intensity press with Isaiah Miller at the point will wear down the Bears by the 2H of this one. The Spartans are the class of the SoCon in recent years, and will earn another NCAA Tournament birth. Watch for Wes Miller’s name in the upcoming “high-major” coaching searches.

Score Prediction: UNCG 74 – Mercer 65

NDSU -2.5 : I had high hopes for South Dakota a few weeks ago, but the injury to A.J. Plitzuweit will be too much to overcome against the Bison. The season series was split, but NDSU won the game without A.J. in the lineup for the Coyotes. There is also a glaring stat from both matchups that I want to be on the right side of. NDSU won the offensive glass 22 to 5 over both contests. Mercy.

Score Prediction: NDSU 72 – South Dakota 67

Pepperdine +9 : Riding the Waves for one last time this season. I hope that is not the case, but I think they will lose a close one tonight. However, all we need them to do is cover 9 points. The spread is way out of line in my opinion. I would have thought it would be -4 to -5 in BYU’s favor. The season series was split, but Pepperdine shot 28% in their loss and it was only by 9 points. Colbey Ross, Kessler Edwards, Sedrick Altman and Jan Zidek are good enough to win this game, but they will certainly keep us in it. Ride the wave!

Score Prediction: BYU 74 – Pepperdine 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/5 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: The Denver Post)

Season Record: 194-143-6

3/5 Three Ball:

Colorado State -1

San Francisco -1

Morehead State -1

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Colorado State -1 : Colorado State is the better team, however there are also other factors pointing to the Rams tonight. Nevada’s Zane Meeks has been dealing with a knee injury over the last half of the season. The Wolfpack are 1-4 without Meeks in the lineup. With Nevada being locked into the 5 seed in the Mountain West tournament regardless of win/loss, I highly doubt that they will rush him back tonight in a meaningless game. Colorado State is still playing for a Mountain West title, and should be playing with a desire tonight. David Roddy and Isaiah Stevens are the real deal, and will carry the Rams to a victory.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 74 – Nevada 67

San Francisco -1 : Going with the Dayton logic from yesterday. Better coach, better star player. Todd Golden has had a tough task in getting this team refocused for this tournament after their end of the season slide, but he is one of the best up and coming coaches in the business and he certainly did that last night. Jamaree Bouyea led the Dons in scoring, and looks like he is in postseason form. The Dons lost the matchups earlier this season to LMU, but the Lions turned the ball over 20+ times in both affairs. That will likely happen again tonight, and you just cannot win three games against a quality opponent while turning over the ball that much. Bouyea and Shabazz should provide enough offense for the Dons to squeak this one out.

Score Prediction: San Francisco 70 – LMU 67

Morehead State -1 : Yep, back to the well against EKU! Ha .. We should have covered against them last night, but we will get our revenge with the Eagles. OVC Coach of the Year, Preston Spradlin, has this team rolling. They have only lost once since Christmas, and they recently avenged that loss to Belmont. They play the best defense in the conference, and Johni Broome has been superb on his way to Freshman of the Year in the conference honors. Last nugget, this is another game that will start around 11pm ET for an EKU team that resides in the eastern time zone. Going to bed around 3am-4am, and then playing a game the next night around the same time has to throw off their game in some sort of fashion. Maybe not, but I love having that in our pocket.

Score Prediction: Morehead State 74 – EKU 66

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/4 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: OSU Athletics)

Season Record: 192-142-6

3/4 Three Ball:

Dayton -3

Oklahoma State tto 67.5

Austin Peay +2

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Dayton -3 : This is the time of the year where we always see the best from the Flyers. No analytics based into this play. I just trust that Anthony Grant and Jalen Crutcher will get the Flyers past URI. The return of Chatman has been huge for the Flyers defense, and R.J. Blakney is really starting to improve as a freshman. This is a gut play. Dayton will get it done.

Score Prediction: Dayton 73 – URI 67

Oklahoma State tto67.5 : While getting 12 points with one of the hottest teams in America is tempting, I am not ready to jump in front of a Baylor offensive buzz saw. Instead, I will take the Oklahoma State tto. While Baylor certainly impressed with their offensive performance in Morgantown, their defense was still lacking. Cade Cunningham is in beast mode right now, so I do not see the defense getting right in this one. Cade is also getting help from the likes of Anderson and Boone, which has risen the Cowboys to 81 ppg over their last four contests. I am fearful of a 85-70 final if I take the spread, so I won’t give in to the temptation. Give us 40 Cade!!!

Score Prediction: Baylor 79 – Oklahoma State 71

Austin Peay +2 : Similar to the Dayton situation, you want the best coach and best player on the court during tourney time. Matt Figger and Terry Taylor easily take the cake in the Governors matchup with EKU. Jordyn Adams has not played like it, but he is the 2nd best player in this contest when he is at his best. I feel like we may see some of that as the Governors look to make some noise in the OVC Championship. This is a team that had big time aspirations before COVID put a halt to the 19-20 season. They have not played their best this season, but this is their chance to make up for it all. Again, this is a gut play… but, you need these during tourney time! The lines are spot on, and there are not many analytical advantages to pounce on. Let’s go Govs!

Score Prediction: Austin Peay 78 – EKU 76

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/3 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Hartford Courant)

Season Record: 188-141-6

3/3 Starting Five:

Syracuse -1.5

Wichita State -3.5

UConn ML -120

Creighton +5

Mississippi State -5

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Syracuse -1.5 : What is March without Syracuse inching their way towards the bubble?! The Orange are certainly doing that after their win on Monday over Carolina. They host a tournament lock in Clemson tonight at the Carrier Dome. The Orange need this one more, and I believe they will get it done. Also, this is a typical rat line (shout out Marty Mush). Cuse lost by 16 in the first matchup, and are favored tonight. A deep dive into the stats could point to this. Syracuse won the offensive glass, and the turnover battle by 12. However, they just shot it 30% from the field. That will not happen again tonight. I like the Orange’s size advantage over Clemson to pull through in this one. They got to the line 27 times in the first game, and I expect them to get there 20+ times again tonight. Boeheim time.

Score Prediction: Syracuse 69 – Clemson 64

Wichita State -3.5 : The Shockers are still in the hunt for the AAC regular championship when they roll into New Orleans tonight. Isaac Brown is addressing this as a “must-win game” to achieve their season goals. Tulane has really nothing to play for other than pride at this point, so the hunger and desire edge should be with the Shockers. They also have the best player on the court in Tyson Etienne. The Shockers easily controlled the first meeting, and only shot 40% from the field. They will run the double on the Green Wave.

Score Prediction: Wichita State 73 – Tulane 65

UConn ML -120 : This team is DANGEROUS with James Bouknight back in the fold. He is easily one of my favorite pro prospects in college ball this season, and his electric play has brought the Huskies back to life. UConn dropped the first meeting to Seton Hall (without Bouknight), but the stats showed a very even affair. Bouknight will be the difference tonight as UConn continues to solidify themselves as an NCAA Tournament team.

Score Prediction: UConn 72 – Seton Hall 67

Creighton +5 : The Jays are just a terrible matchup for this year’s Villanova team. I know a lot of people will be picking Nova tonight. Creighton won the first game, and Nova is coming off of an embarrassing loss. Typical “get right” spot. However, the spacing and sharp shooting from Creighton caused Villanova fits in the first meeting, and it will happen again tonight. Also, Creighton has Christian Bishop and Denzel Mahoney to throw at Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. In the earlier meeting, he only scored 8 points while shooting 23% from the field while being largely defended by Bishop/Mahoney. This is a huge weapon for Greg McDermott. If Robinson-Early gets shut down, then Nova doesn’t really have anywhere to go outside of Gillespie. We all know it turns out when he tries to be the main scorer. Going against the grain here. Creighton wins again.

Score Prediction: Creighton 75 – Villanova 74

Mississippi State -5 : Picking on the Aggies in this spot. They have not played a basketball game since January. Yes, you read that right. Their last game was in the SEC/Big 12 challenge against Kansas State on January 30th. They have had a nasty COVID shutdown that affected a large majority of the roster. Without game action or practice time, I do not believe they will be able to hang with the Bulldogs tonight. Stewart Jr. and Molinar are top notch guards, and they should pull this one out. Miss State was up big in the first meeting, and got sloppy and let A&M come back and steal one. They will get their payback tonight.

Score Prediction: Mississippi State 67 – Texas A&M 58

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/2 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Detroit Mercy Athletics)

Season Record: 185-140-6

3/2 Three Ball:

Detroit Mercy ML -120

Michigan State -2

Georgia Tech -1

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Detroit Mercy ML : Trusting in the Antoine Davis show tonight. This kid is unbelievable. He went for 46 (!!!) in the Horizon league first round matchup with Robert Morris. On the season he is averaging 24 ppg, while shooting 91% from the stripe and 37% from distance. He is an elite scorer that is built for tournament play. This team is actually much better than their record shows as well. They are the 2nd highest rated Horizon team in KenPom. They assist more than they turn it over ; they shoot 80% as a team from the free throw line ; and also shoot the three at 39%. Give me the Titans tonight!

Score Prediction: Detroit 76 – NKU 72

Michigan State -2.5 : Yes, I have been on the fade Sparty train. However, IU is dead. The blown lead in Piscataway effectively ended their season in my opinion. It is also likely that they be without Armaan Franklin again tonight. I do not trust that backcourt without Franklin, and Jackson-Davis should find it tough to get it going against the length from Sparty. Izzo will find a way to pull this one out at the Breslin.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 70 – Indiana 64

Georgia Tech -1 : Take the programs and jerseys out of it .. and the Yellow Jackets have the better talent on the court this season. The backcourt of Alvarado, Devoe and Usher – paired with Moses Wright – is a step above what Coach K is rolling out there this season. Also, this game being in Atlanta is a huge advantage for Josh Pastner’s squad. The Jackets are 7-1 straight up at home in conference play, with the lone loss coming to UVA. To be fair, Tech was winning for the majority of that contest as well. Duke has had a nice run, but they will not be able to find a way to squeak this one out on the road.

Score Prediction: Georgia Tech 76 – Duke 71

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/1 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Dayton Daily News)

Season Record: 183-137-6

3/1 Three Ball:

Dayton +8

Quinnipiac +4

UMass +11

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Dayton +8 : Dayton finally got Chatman back, and blew out Saint Louis on Senior Night. Everything was looking up! The Flyers beat a top team in the A 10, and were going to have solid momentum pushing towards the conference tournament. Then, they had their most embarrassing performance of the year. You just cannot lose to Saint Joes. I think they took this game lightly after the win over the Billikens, and got popped in the mouth before they knew what was happening. Jalen Crutcher was visibly upset with his team’s performance, and I expect that the senior leader will have the Flyers up for a chance at another big win to end the regular season over the Bonnies. Dayton could potentially squeak this one out if they get Osun in foul trouble. The athletic bigs from Dayton would be too much for Jalen Shaw to handle. I will take the points with the Flyers in this one.

Score Prediction: St. Bonaventure 68 – Dayton 66

Quinnipiac +4 : B2B system play here. I think the Bobcats will outright win, so I am very confident in getting 4 points here. Luis Kortright is one of my favorite freshmen in the country. He is averaging 20 ppg over his last three, and is also rebounding, assisting and defending. He will be the difference maker tonight to go along with consistency from Jacob Rigoni.

Score Prediction: Quinnipiac 67 – Marist 65

UMass +11 : Time to cash in on Tre Mitchell and Noah Fernandes being back to 100% health. The Minutemen’s two best players have been dealing with a shoulder and wrist injury, and the quality from the team has taken a nose dive. However, they have had a week off and Matt McCall has confirmed that there will be no minute restrictions for either tonight. UMass also took Saint Louis to the brink in both contests last season. They had no answer for a freshman Tre Mitchell, so I think he will take advantage of them again tonight. We are getting a good number tonight before the market corrects. Don’t be scared of this one!

Score Prediction: Saint Louis 74 – UMass 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/25 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Eleven Warriors)

Season Record: 172-127-5

2/25 Three Ball:

Morehead St/Tenn St o131

Ohio State -4

Oregon +1

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Morehead St/Tenn St o131 : I love this play to get the night started. I believe we easily go over the total here. This total is sitting at 131 because of the Morehead State pace of play and defense. They are only allowing 62 ppg, and rank 294th in pace. However, they did run with Tennessee State in their first match-up. This led to a 79-66 victory for the Eagles. Not only do we have that as a sample, but there is a nasty trend for Tennessee State’s defense. They allow 73 ppg on the season, and are allowing 84 POINTS PER GAME over their last 5. We will smoke the total here.

Score Prediction: Morehead State 78 – Tennessee State 65

Ohio State -4 : This Sparty run is cute and all, but the magic is ending tonight. Ohio State is one of the hottest teams in the country, and the loss to Michigan will have them fired up tonight. They played well enough to win against the Wolverines, but it just didn’t happen. The emergence of Duane Washington Jr. has completely changed the make-up of the Buckeyes. They now have a do it all combo-guard to pair with Liddell down low, and Ahrens from the perimeter. The role players of Walker, Sueing and Young round out this incredible team. The Buckeyes are shooting 78% from the line, and I expect them to take care of a Michigan State team that loves to foul. Illinois should have taken advantage of all of the free throws the other night, but the Buckeyes will have no trouble in doing that. I expect them to be hungry from the start tonight, and to have an 8-12 point lead for the majority of the contest.

Score Prediction: Ohio State 76 – Michigan State 67

Oregon +1 : Get right spot for the Ducks. They got abused down low against Southern Cal, and it really took the wind out of the sails from a finally healthy Ducks squad. However, I trust that Dana Altman will have them focused and ready to get back to the winning ways tonight. Stanford is coming off of a loss to Wazzou, and are just not playing well. Duarte and Omoruyi are match-up nightmares for the Cardinal, and I do not know where the defense will come from to defend these guys. Daejon Davis has returned for Stanford, but had 6 turnovers and fouled out of the game against Washington State. Zaire Williams has also not been himself since returning from injury. Quack Quack.

Score Prediction: Oregon 70 – Stanford 66

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!