We are carrying two preseason futures into the national championship game. 60-1 and 15-1. It still has not really set in since Saturday night. It doesn’t feel real. Like, holy shit guys. We are adding another banner. ’25 is going up in the rafters with ’23.
There won’t be an official play today for obvious reasons (will still have some pizza thooooo – scroll down). That concludes our season at 306-246 (55.43%). We also enjoyed an awesome tournament (without including the futures) after going 11-4 on Best Bets! I appreciate each and every one of you and can’t wait to run it back again next season. But enough of that for now. We can get sentimental in the season recap blog. Let’s get fat on some fucking pizza tonight.
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4/7 Card :
We get to sit back and relax and cash a 60-1 or 15-1 ticket in the national title game. As good as it gets, gentlemen.I am so happy that one of these teams gets to cut down the nets. I have fallen in love with both of them throughout the year. We could not ask for a better title game. I obviously will not be playing a side in this game, but if you missed out on grabbing futures on these teams .. my lean would be to Florida. I just don’t think Walter Clayton Jr. will be denied in this form. I would also expect the analytic-driven Florida staff to dive deep into that Duke/Houston tape to find ways to get open kick-out threes and back-cut layups/dunks from the sets Scheyer was running for Flagg. Maybe Houston doesn’t sell out as hard on drives from Thomas Haugh, but I could see him finding success over the top finding teammates with his athleticism and passing abilities. I also think that the Florida staff really showed how elite they were in the 2H the other night. Those halftime adjustments completely stifled Auburn after it seemed like the game was getting away from Florida. Houston’s late game magic was fucking awesome, but we actually saw the Duke lead extend in a big way after halftime. A fair share of that late game magic was aided by Duke shitting themselves. I think you have to give a slight edge to the Gators staff in a game where 2H adjustments could decide the winner. With all of that said, I would not be shocked in the slightest if Houston wins. Both of these teams would be worthy champions. Let’s enjoy our final night in San Antonio.
Score Prediction: Florida 74 – Houston 70
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4/7 – Race to 10’s (15-13 ; up 2.09 pizzas)
Florida -115 (DK) – My #1 rated offense all year long gets it done again for us out of the gate.
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4/7 – More Pizza!
First Point Scorer: Will Richard (+750) (DK)
Florida First Basket Made: 3Pter (+150) (DK) – Cashed this against Auburn. They are on to us! Dropped our price from +190. Still like it again. Will Richard please!
Houston First FG Attempt: Missed 3pter (+250) (DK) – Cryer misses a three to get the game started for Houston.
Will Richard (Florida) over 11.5 points (+100) (DK) – It is Will Richard’s time to step up. Houston will focus a lot of attention on Clayton, and due to that Richard will see several open three opportunities. I expect him to knock them down.
Thomas Haugh (Florida) over 2.5 assists (+105) (DK) : Spoke about it above. I think Haugh has a great chance to be a facilitator today.
J’Wan Roberts over 11.5 points (-110) (DK) : J’Wan can find some success with his back-to-the-basket post game tonight. I expect to see him be a focal point in his final collegiate game.
Player Prop Parlay +105 (DK): Alex Condon (Florida) over 5.5 points + Milos Uzan (Houston) over 9.5 points + Will Richard (Florida) over 7.5 points
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We have finally made it to San Antonio, gents! What a year it has been. We have eclipsed the 55% mark for the season once again. Hard work pays off. This great season is also culminating with two of our four preseason futures making it to the Final Four! We have advanced our preseason 60-1 Florida and 15-1 Houston tickets to this point. A lot of you are asking if I am planning on hedging entering this round. I am not. Auburn and Duke are worthy and formidable opponents, but I feel confident that we will see a minimum of one of our teams in the title game on Monday night. If I am wrong, I can live with it. The dream scenario of having both tickets in the championship game is still on the table. I am not passing that up. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s get into Saturday’s card (some additional pizza)!
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4/5 Card :
Florida/Auburn 1H under 76 -115 (Caesars) (6:09pm – CBS)
I think that we a see a surprisingly sleepy start in a game with such offensive firepower. Auburn is the key to this play in my opinion. Their shooting has just been off recently. The Tigers are getting their points by paint touches and getting to the free throw line. They have shot 36.8%, 28.6%, and 28% from three in their last three games. This Florida team is fantastic at guarding the three point line. The Gators are 6th in the country in opponent three point percentage. The Alamodome sightlines are also not going to do the Tigers any favors to find their form. Plenty of factors to account for predicting a sleepy Auburn offensive start.
Auburn was also really locked in on the defensive end in the Atlanta regional final rounds. Their #8 rated KenPom defense showed it’s teeth early in those matchups and held Michigan to 29 points & Michigan State to 24 points in the 1H. Dylan Cardwell has been an absolute brick wall.
Auburn’s recent poor shooting and early game defensive abilities lead me to believe that we can slide under 76 for the 1H. Sorry for not having fun. We can do that in the 2H.
Score Prediction: 1H Florida 37 – Auburn 35
Houston +5.5 -114 (FD) (8:49pm – CBS)**Best Bet**
I am siding with Vegas here. This spread is so bloated. In no world should this Houston team be 5.5 point dogs on a neutral to Duke. KenPom has this as a 2 point Duke win, BartTorvik has Houston slightly favored, yet we are seeing Duke getting nearly 70% of the bets at -5.5. A public peach. VegasInsider is reporting Duke is getting 69% of the bets, but only 53% of the money. You know the drill. I genuinely believe that Houston will be able to force their tempo in this game. Duke already has a slow average tempo per KenPom (269th), and they have been a pace chameleon due to their ability to execute in both the half court and in transition. In a game with fewer possessions, these 5 and a half points grow larger in importance. Listen, Duke doesn’t have many weaknesses. If we have to nitpick they are really struggling allowing offensive rebounds this tournament. They have gotten outrebounded on the offensive glass by Baylor, Arizona and Alabama. A total of 40 offensive rebounds grabbed by those three teams. Giving Houston second chance points is a recipe for disaster given their newly found efficient three point shooting this year. I am also just siding with the clear cut #1 defense on both KenPom AND ShotQuality in a game that should be very physical. JoJo Tugler just won the Lefty Driesell – National Defensive Player of the Year award and Cooper Flagg should see a lot of him.
The last time Duke was in a war with a defensive minded team they lost at Clemson. I think Houston has the recipe to pull off the upset here. I will gladly take the points. I expect this one to be a classic. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Duke 69 – Houston 68
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4/5 – Race to 10’s (15-12 ; up 3.09 pizzas)
Houston +115 (DK) – Houston’s physicality is going to be a wake up call early in this game in my opinion.
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4/5 – More Pizza!
Florida First Basket Made: 3Pter (+190) (DK) – Walter Clayton Jr. does it again!
Duke First FG Attempt: Missed 2pter (+190) (DK) – See Race to 10
Alex Condon (Florida) over 10.5 points (-120) (DK) : Was the best player on the court in the previous matchup. Excelled against a gamble heavy Auburn defense on drives from the Florida guards. I expect another big game.
Kon Knueppel (Duke) over 2.5 assists (-140) (DK) : Knueppel is a phenomenal passer. Assists are hard to come by against a Houston defense, but we will still see a Maluach lob or two to boost our total. I like our chances to get to at least 3 here.
Player Prop Parlay +105 (DK): Alex Condon (Florida) over 7.5 points + Milos Uzan (Houston) over 7.5 points + Sion James (Duke) over 5.5 points
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A tough 1-2 day yesterday. Sucks. Time to bounce back though! No time for a write-up today. Sorry friends. The card + pizza plays are listed below. Let’s get our preseason 15-1 Houston ticket to San Antonio. I am still dreaming about a Florida and Houston final…
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3/30 Card :
Tennessee 1H +1.5 (Caesars) (2:20pm – CBS)
Tennessee/Houston under 126.5 (DK) (2:20pm – CBS)
Auburn 1H -2.5 (FD) (5:05pm – CBS) **Best Bet**
Michigan State/Auburn over 147 (Caesars) (5:05pm – CBS)
Coen Carr over 5.5 points x Miles Kelly over 9.5 points (+100 at DK) (5:05pm – CBS)
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3/30 – Race to 10’s (14-11 ; up 3.09 pizzas)
Tennessee +100 (DK)
Auburn -135 (FD)
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BOOM!!! A scorching hot 8-2 (2-0 Best Bet) performance in the Sweet 16 has me buzzing for this Elite 8 action! We are also up 5.64 units on the Race to 10 pizza plays. Let’s keep this shit rolling! My card for today’s Elite 8 slate is listed below. I have included our Race to 10 pizza plays below as well. Make sure to scroll down!
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3/29 Card (+ given on Thursday):
Florida -6.5 **Best Bet** (DK) (6:09pm – TBS)+
I could not have jumped on this number faster on Thursday night. Chance McMillian is a MAJOR loss to this Texas Tech rotation. Especially when you have to keep up with backcourt scoring of the likes of Arkansas and Florida. TTU was able to get away with his absence against Drake by spamming Toppin and Williams in the paint, but the Red Raiders were severely stuck in the mud when going against a team with the length of Arkansas. Florida’s defensive prowess is even more daunting. I know Christian Anderson made shots late, but a lot of the reason why Texas Tech is here today is more to due with Arkansas shitting themselves in my opinion. As of writing this article, I do not see any reports that McMillian is a confirmed go today. I would not be surprised if he tries to play, but I made this game 10 full points due to the absence or limitation of McMillian.
It will be interesting to see the minutes split of Florida’s frontcourt today. Condon will be active and all signs point to him not having limitations today from the ankle roll a few days ago. That is huge. I also think that Thomas Haugh has a very solid chance to lead that group in minutes again tonight. I think he is a perfect weapon to deploy against Darrion Williams. He was really able to frustrate Julian Reese and I think we see more of the same today. His lateral quickness and athleticism defensively is going to give Williams fits on the offensive end. I also think he will find success offensively with his constant movement.
Thomas Haugh did a little bit of everything for the Gators in their Sweet 16 win over Maryland. Few forwards in college basketball possess his blend of size, skill, feel, fluidity, and toughness, making the 6-9, 20-year-old an intriguing long-term NBA prospect. pic.twitter.com/0g4XCLJQa7
Texas Tech ranks 242nd in shot selection per ShotQuality (promo code: SNIPER25). We saw that in live action against the Razorbacks last time out. I think it finally puts the nail in their coffin today. Florida will get theirs no matter how good you are defensively. Let’s lay it here and get our Gators to the Final Four. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Florida 84 – Texas Tech 73
Alabama/Duke over 174 points (Ceasars) (8:49pm – TBS) +
I did not get the best number here due to crashing out over Calipari almost blowing our Best Bet, but I am still confident in what we have. These rims at the Prudential Center are lubed up and unscrewed to say the least. We saw 394 points (!!!) in the two games played at this arena in the Sweet 16. These rims carried Alabama to the all=time NCAA Tournament record for threes made in a game with damn near 8 minutes still left on the clock. With both of these offenses humming at full potential and forgiving rims, I am definitely going to be on the over.
I lean Duke on the spread as well. They are going to carve this Alabama defense. We saw a quiet Proctor performance from the game flow the other night, but don’t forget just how hot this man is from three at the moment.
Duke’s Tyrese Proctor exploded for 25 points (9-10 FG, 7-8 3FG) in the R32 win over Baylor.
The 6’6 combo guard has completely refined his game over the course of his collegiate career, and has carved himself a path to the NBA.
The Blue Devils are going to be able to compete from the three point line. Alabama ranks 340th in allowing opponents high quality threes per ShotQuality. Proctor, Knueppel, Flagg, etc will be able to take advantage. That is the major edge in this matchup because Duke is flat out better in every other facet. Cooper Flagg’s excellence is continuing to grow game by game and that is mind blowing after the year he has already had. There is not a defender on the Tide that can check him. Alabama’s shot making in this arena is what has pushed me to the over as opposed to laying it with the Blue Devils though. I would not be surprised to see Alabama take an early lead and then just see the Duke train roll. Anyways, Let’s score some points.
Score Prediction: Duke 94 – Alabama 85
Player Prop Parlay: ALT Lines – Tyrese Proctor over 9.5 points x Chris Youngblood over 9.5 points (+100 at Caesars)
Back by popular demand from the success yesterday. Let’s hit another one! There will be plenty of points to go around in this game. I love the way both of these guys are shooting the three. I love the way that the Prudential Center rims are accepting the threes. Let’s make some threes.
My card for today’s Sweet 16 action is listed below. I have included our Race to 10 pizza plays below as well. Make sure to scroll down. I added a Race to 10 and an official play for the card in this write-up. Let’s snipe!
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3/28 Card (+ given on Tuesday):
Ole Miss 1H +2 (Caesars) (7:09pm – CBS)+
The Rebels have eclipsed the 40 point mark in the 1H in three out of their last four games. Those performances came against Iowa State, UNC, and Arkansas. Michigan State has started pretty slow in their last three games. They trailed New Mexico and Wisconsin at the break, and seesawed back and forth with Bryant in the 1H of that game before taking a small lead into the half. I am attacking this postseason trend from both of these teams out of the gate in this one. Ole Miss has the recent jump shooting to keep them competitive to start this game. I do think Michigan State likely wears them down in the interior and wins a close one in the 2H, so Sparty may be a live opportunity for us at the half. Will keep y’all posted.
Score Prediction: 1H Ole Miss 36 – Michigan State 34
Tennessee -4.5 & under 145.5 (FD)(7:39pm – TBS/TruTV)+
KenPom has this game as a 147 point total prediction. We usually don’t see totals dive well below those projections (144.5 now), so that should always grab your attention. A lot of this action is likely due to the venue. This game is being played in one half of Lucas Oil Stadium. Hopefully it doesn’t look as fucking silly on TV as it does on the internet. The shooting backdrops in football stadiums have been famous for cashing unders over the years. That is nice to have in our back pocket, but that is not my angle here. It’s all about the pace baby.
I am predicting that Tennessee gains a stranglehold on the pace today. The first two meetings of the season ended on 151 and 139 points. Tennessee was able to control the pace in the previous meetings this season, but ultimately lost both games by allowing UK to make 12 threes in both games (while shooting 50% from the field in both as well). The Vols come into tonight’s game with the 346th rated adjusted tempo in KenPom. They are able to dictate the pace against the high flying Cats because of Kentucky’s inability to speed them up/turn them over. Kentucky is 364th (dead last) in the country in non-steal percentage on defense. They just are not set-up defensively to cause unforced errors against quality opponents. The Cats are also 337th overall in turning over their opponents. Kentucky’s inability to turn Tennessee over kept them out of transition and limited the pace in the previous meetings. I think we see more of the same tonight. I am also predicting that Tennessee’s 3rd rated KenPom defense comes to play in a big way today and does not allow Kentucky to reach the 12 made three pointer plateau again. Kentucky will also not sniff 50% from the field for a third time (especially in a football stadium). I feel comfortable laying the points AND taking the under here. The Vols get their revenge.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 74 – Kentucky 67
Auburn 1H -4.5 and -8.5 full game (FD) (9:39pm – CBS) **Best Bet is Auburn -8.5**+
The Michigan luck runs out here. The Auburn spread is touching 9.5 at some places and this is totally justified. This Auburn team is a horrible matchup for Michigan.
These warts on Michigan’s ShotQuality profile above (promo code: SNIPER25) are areas that elite teams will punish you in a win or go home scenario. Auburn is licking their chops to attack in these areas.
As you can see above, Auburn has the profile to completely dismantle Michigan’s flaws. They protect the ball .. can kill Michigan in transition when they cough it up .. will make their open threes.. etc ,etc, etc. Auburn also has the interior depth and athleticism to limit the high-low success that the Wolverines get from the Wolf and Goldin partnership. This is an 8 point game on KenPom and I think that is generous considering the site. This game is being played in Atlanta and early reports are showing that it will be a mini-Jungle in State Farm Arena. Auburn has a MASSIVE alumni/fanbase in the Atlanta area and these tickets sold quickly. This crowd will carry the patented Auburn runs. I like Auburn to jump out to a big lead quickly and never look back. Best Bet.
Milos Uzan over 9.5 pts x J’Wan Roberts over 4.5 reb x Houston ML —- Parlay (Available @ DK at +102) (10:09pm – TBS/TruTV)
A little parlay to finish our night. This is the first one we have given all year long, but I was toying around with some things after being in a stalemate with the spread and total and concocted this bad boy. I am pumped about it!
Milos Uzan has reached the double digit plateau in 16 out of his last 19 games for the Cougars. Including 6 games in a row before his 7 point outing last time out against Gonzaga. Uzan is a guard with exceptional athleticism driving the basketball and that has given the Purdue backcourt of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer fits over the years. Uzan shoots it 43.7% from three and 77.6% from the free throw line. I like our chances to touch double digits here.
J’Wan Roberts grabbing 5 rebounds is something that I am very confident in tonight. He reached this plateau 6 times in a row before picking up that injury during the Big 12 Tournament. He is now seemingly healthy and grabbed 8 boards last time out against a stout Gonzaga frontline. Purdue’s interior depth is very minimal and their middle of the D1 road rebounding statistics back that up. Playing against Houston’s frontline after facing High Point and McNeese is going to be a shock to the system for the Boilers. I like Roberts to crash the glass, impose his physicality, and get at least 5 tonight.
Houston wins this game tonight. I do not see any chance for an upset. Throwing their ML in this parlay gets us to plus money. Let’s party tonight!
Score Prediction: Uzan 13+ points, Roberts 7+ rebounds, Houston wins by 7-12
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3/28 – Race to 10’s (11-9 ; up 2.64 pizzas)
Ole Miss +100 (DK)+
Auburn -170 (DK) – We are laying the pizza sauce for this blowout
Tennessee -130 (DK)+
+ given on Tuesday
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My card for the Sweet 16 is listed below. There maybe will be an add or two on Thursday. I will also have a write-up posted on Thursday AM. Let’s get hot! (scroll for the pizza plays!)
BOOM!! We answered the bell, fellas. A winning day was much needed. We went 5-3 on the card including going 2-0 on Best Bets! We also added a 3-0 Race to 10 performance to get us into positive pizza territory. Another big day is coming for us today. Let’s run it up on the last day of the first weekend! Race to 10’s for today are also included below the card so make sure to scroll down. Let’s stay hot!
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3/23 Card:
UConn/Florida 1H under 71.5 (Caesars) (12:10pm – CBS)
Baylor 1H +7 (Caesars) (2:40pm – CBS)
Illinois -1.5 (Caesars) (5:15pm – CBS)+
Saint Mary’s +6 (Caesars) (6:10pm – TNT)**Best Bet**
Ole Miss/Iowa State over 145 (DK) (7:45 truTV)
New Mexico +7.5 (FD) (8:40pm – TNT)+ **Best Bet**
+ given on Saturday
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3/23 Race to 10’s (8-7 ; up 1.19 pizzas)
Baylor +160 (DK)
Ole Miss +115 (DK)
New Mexico +125 (DK)
Oregon +105 (DK)
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Sweet 16 – Early Adds:
None at this point. Will probably add one or two on Monday morning.
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If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
What a weird ass day yesterday was. We started the day 4-1 and brought our Best Bets for the tournament to 5-1. Vibes were high entering the four late games where we had all four underdogs. Well, you know the rest. OU and Bryant melting away in the last few minutes just capped it off. The public favorites steamrolled the late night quadbox. Very disappointing way to end the day. It’s almost unfathomable. Nothing we can do about it now though. Time to dust ourselves off and get back to winning. Today’s card is below. A few 3/23 Early Adds & Race to 10’s for today are also included below the card so make sure to scroll down. Let’s get hot!
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3/22 Card:
McNeese/Purdue over 143.5 (FD) (12:10pm)+
Purdue should have a field day in the paint in this game. McNeese has limited size in the frontcourt and we saw just how vulnerable they can be with that late Clemson comeback on Thursday.
As you can see above from the McNeese ShotQuality profile (promo code: SNIPER25), the Cowboys are dreadful in defending in the half court. Braden Smith will baptize this team in the pick & roll. The Boilers rank 14th in half court SQ PPP. While McNeese has major defensive shortcomings, they can also score as you can see above. I expect some decent efficiency in this game. Both of these team’s games went under in the first game at the Dunk, but the SQ Score would have covered both overs. I love the over here. SQ does as well with a predicted score of 78.7-71.4. We got a bad number here with the late movement. Most likely due to the unders in this building. I’ve dipped my toes in again at 140.5.
Score Prediction: Purdue 78 – McNeese 69
Texas A&M -2.5 (DK) (5:15pm)+
Michigan was very lucky to escape UCSD on night one. Their turnover issue was on full display as the Tritons scored 15 points off of 14 turnovers. The Aggies are 54th in the country in turning over their opponents and should get many freebies today. I also think that the depth of A&M is going to be the difference today in what should be a physical game with a ton of fouls.
Pharrel Payne was EVERYWHERE for @aggiembk in their R1 win 💥
The Aggies are legit 10 deep and can have guys like Pharrel Payne go off on any given night. The Wolverines do not have a ton of depth and the Aggies #1 free throw rate in the country is going to rack up fouls on Michigan quickly (especially Goldin). A&M moves on to the Sweet 16. Lean the over here as well.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 76 – Michigan 70
Texas Tech 1H -3.5 (FD) (6:10pm)
This is a matchup where I believe Drake has finally met their match from a physicality standpoint. Drake’s defense has been surviving with some pretty worrisome warts on their KenPom resume. The Bulldogs are 291st in the country in 2pt FG % allowed and 271st in opponent free throw rate. I think Texas Tech is primed to take advantage of this with Toppin, Williams, etc. I think the Red Raiders enforce their will early so I will take the 1H to avoid late game magic from Stirtz and Mascari.
Score Prediction: 1H Texas Tech 32 – Drake 26
Auburn -9 (Caesars) (7:10pm) + **Best Bet**
This one is going to get veryyyyyyyy ugly, folks. We were all over Creighton in the first game of the Round of 64, and boy did the Jays deliver for us. It is tough to turn our backs on them this quickly, but this Auburn matchup is an absolute nightmare. The Kalkbrenner advantage that Creighton normally has is completely washed away here. The Tigers have the best interior rim protection in the country as a unit in my personal opinion. Broome, Cardwell, Johnson, etc. They get massive help from their guards as well. The stats back it up. Auburn ranks 2nd in the country in blocked shots per game. I also am predicted a huge turnover disparity here. Auburn ranks 7th in the country in protecting the ball, and 2nd in Non-Stl TO% per KenPom. Creighton is 361st in turning their opponents over. The Auburn ball pressure is certainly going to force some on Creighton’s side, so this could play a major factor in this game. I love the matchup edges for Auburn. I think the sleeping Tiger wakes up a bit and we see one of the thrashings that we had gotten used to earlier in the year. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Auburn 85 – Creighton 68
BYU +1.5 (FD) (7:45pm) +
BYU made a believer out of me in the matchup with VCU. I was already a fan of this group, but I thought that was a horrible draw for them and they came out and handled business wire-t0-wire against a very, very good Rams team. What surprised me was the way they attacked the rim against an elite interior defense. BYU got to the line 28 times compared to VCU’s 6. This team is already 5th in KenPom in 2pt% and 6th in effective FG%. Getting to the line at that rate turns this #9 KenPom offense into something even more elite. Wisconsin is 274th in the country in opponent % of points coming from the stripe. That could very well play a major factor in today’s game. Wisconsin will certainly get their usual three pointers today, but I think Crowl and Winter are going to find things very difficult in their post-up game with Keba Keita protecting the paint.
Wisconsin starts two seven-footers; this season they've combined for fewer blocked shots (30) than 6'8" Keba Keita (37). pic.twitter.com/t1pz3e0MPv
There is a reason why this game sits at +1 and even PK at some books now with the KenPom predicted score being a Wisconsin 3 point victory. The 6 seed moves on to the Sweet 16.
Score Prediction: BYU 78 – Wisconsin 74
Houston -4.5 (DK) (8:40pm) + **Best Bet**
It has been well documented by now the strength of Gonzaga’s analytics. I took a swing with UGA bucking that notion, and failed miserably. I am here today doing it again. Kelvin Sampson won’t make me regret that. Gonzaga has had major struggles this year with teams that get physical with them. That is why I thought UGA’s interior could keep them in the game. Houston is a completely different animal. The Cougars are absolutely going to suffocate Ike, Huff, Gregg, etc in the paint. Houston is #2 in the country in effective FG% allowed and #4 in 2pt % allowed. Gonzaga’s offense is also predicated on Ryan Nembhard play creating and getting assists. Those are going to be hard to come by today. Houston is 27th in the country in assists allowed per game.
This is also not the typical Houston team you are accustomed to seeing if you are just now joining the CBB world for March Madness. This team can actually shoot! Houston ranks 4th in the country in 3PT % at 39.6%. The Three&D combo is very lethal come this time of year.
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 20, 2025
The analytic paper tiger gets put to rest today. Houston wins comfortably. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Houston 75 – Gonzaga 66
Tennessee -4.5 (DK) (9:40pm) +
It is unfortunate that Utah State did not come prepared to play against UCLA, but it gives us a chance tonight to take advantage of a team that I do not believe is good enough to be in this R32. These UCLA major analytic downfalls from ShotQuality are a big reason why I think they have a poor night against the Vols.
Tennessee, like Houston, can shoot very well this season. The Vols are 35th in efficiency shooting the three pointer per Shot Quality. The Vols are also 3rd in the country in opponent three point percentage. Holding opponents to only 28.2%. We already know from the profile above that UCLA does not attack the rim. It is going to be a recipe for disaster if UCLA finds themselves living in the mid range against this lengthy Vols defense if they can’t get anything at the rim or from 3. This is a horrible matchup for UCLA. It is always tough backing Rick Barnes as a favorite in the tournament, but we have to here.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 70 – UCLA 63
+ given on Friday
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3/22 Race to 10’s (5-7 ; down 2.06 pizzas)
I have no idea how we didn’t get Troy OR Bryant yesterday. We would be in positive pizza territory if we had just gotten one. Let’s try this again.
Arkansas +125 (DK)
Texas Tech -145 (FD)
BYU +100 (DK)
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3/23 Early Adds:
Illinois -1.5 (Caesars) (5:15pm – CBS)
New Mexico +7.5 (FD) (8:40pm – TNT)
I like a few other spots, but I think we will get better numbers tomorrow. More to come!
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(photo: Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
24/25 Season Record: 283-227
2025 NCAA Tournament: 5-5 (3-1 Best Bet)
A tough finish to the day yesterday to knocks us back to 5-5 for the tournament. We usually kick ass on Day 1, but this is just motivation to grind harder and get us back to where we need to be. We are 3-1 on Best Bets at least. Just need to get the other plays on track. I will not have time to get a write-up out today. Sorry fellas. We will be back with one tomorrow. A few 3/22 Early Adds & Race to 10’s for today included below the card so make sure to scroll down. Let’s get hot!
3/21 Card :
Mississippi State ML -110 (DK) (12:15pm)+
Iowa State -13.5 (MGM) (1:30pm) + **Best Bet**
Vanderbilt/St. Mary’s under 136.5 (FD) (3:15pm)+
Maryland -10 (MGM) (4:35pm)**Best Bet**
New Mexico +4 (Caesars) (7:25pm)+
Oklahoma +5.5 (DK) (9:25pm)
Xavier +3.5 (MGM) (9:45pm)
Bryant +17.5 (DK) (10:00pm)
Liberty +7.5 (MGM) (10:10pm)
+ given on Sunday
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3/21 Race to 10’s (2-4 ; down 2.1 pizzas)
Colorado State -110 (DK)
Ole Miss +102 (FD)
Troy +154 (FD)
New Mexico +102 (FD)
Akron +176 (FD)
Bryant +220 (FD)
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3/22 Early Adds:
McNeese/Purdue over 143.5 (FD) (12:10pm)
Texas A&M -2.5 (DK) (5:15pm)
Auburn -9 (Caesars) (6:10pm) **Best Bet**
BYU +1.5 (FD) (7:45pm)
Houston -4.5 (DK) (8:40pm) **Best Bet**
Tennessee -4.5 (DK) (9:40pm)
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Creighton +2.5 : Ryan Kalkbrenner is going to completely control the paint on both ends of the court in this game. I worry about Louisville’s rim protection here. They really struggled at the rim against Maluach last time out. James Scott is the only resistance on the defensive end for the Cards against Kalk, and he has been in foul trouble constantly over the last month. Scott has recorded at least 4 fouls in three out of the last five games, and fouled out of the most recent game against Duke. Kalkbrenner is literally never in foul trouble and will have free rolls to the basket consistently without Scott on the court. I think the Jays are in a great spot defensively in this game as well. Creighton ranks 1st in the country in Shot Selection allowed per ShotQuality (SQ promo code: SNIPER25), and they are also 2nd in Rim & 3 rate allowed. I mentioned it with Kalk earlier, but the Jays also just don’t foul at all as a team. They are #1 in the country in free throw rate allowed to their opponents. They are going to force many threes from this Louisville team (who will gladly take them), and I think that will be a recipe for success after they dominate the paint and the free throw battle. Louisville is 216th in the country in 3PT %, but are 19th in 3Point rate. Creighton will let them to fire away from deep and control everything else. Creighton’s ability to make threes give us a chance to win in all three phases of the box score (2pt, 3pt, FT). I like our chances at the tiny upset.
Score Prediction:Creighton 75 – Louisville 70
High Point +9 : This High Point player performance snapshot is courtesy of the ShotQuality March Madness primer (this thing is really fucking cool – go buy it)
In a nutshell, the Panthers can fill it up. This bench is very deep for a team from the Big South, and it is almost impossible to find a blemish on their KenPom or ShotQuality resume’s from an offensive perspective. High Point has the 25th best offense in the KenPom adjusted efficiency rating and are 12th in effective field goal percentage. Here is also a quick ShotQuality snapshot of other areas they excel at.
This high powered offense is going to be trouble for a reeling Purdue defense. Bodo Bodo is going to have a field day at the rim. Purdue has fallen all of the way to 350th in defending shots at the rim per ShotQuality. There is absolutely no rim protection. I also like High Point to compete heavily with Purdue from the three point line. That has been a weapon that has kept Purdue afloat, but High Point is 25th per SQ in defending the three point line.
I like High Point to keep this one within 9 points, but this is not an outright upset situation in my opinion. The High Point interior and transition defense is too flawed. Braden Smith will have his way with this Panther defense. I am just convinced that High Point can score enough on the struggling Purdue defense to keep us within the number here. It looks like we will receive some nice CLV after locking in on Sunday night. This will be a fun one to watch.
Score Prediction: Purdue 82 – High Point 76
Montana/Wisconsin over 148.5 : We are cruising to some awesome CLV here as well. The Sunday work paid off!
It is so awesome to see how Greg Gard has evolved and changed a lot of his prior principles to become a dynamic offensive program. The Badgers offense is legit. The three point rate is what I am really excited about in this matchup. Wisconsin comes into this Round of 64 game ranked 18th in the country in three point rate. This rate was actually, believe it or not, getting blown out of the water in Indy. The Badgers took 100 threes in three games. One hundred. ShotQuality ranks Montana at 336th in the country in Open 3 Rate allowed. KenPom has the Griz at 319th in the country in opponent percentage of points allowed from three. It is going to be bombs away in this one from Wisconsin. Montana also is 156th in the country in opponent free throw rate. Wisconsin remains #1 in free throw percentage. There are plenty of paths for Wisconsin to score.
Montana is a decent little mid-major offense. Shot Quality ranks them 25th in efficiency attacking them rim and 62nd in efficient three point shooting. They are not due for any regression at all on their 1.12 PPP on the season. Wisconsin will definitely be a step-up in competition, but I think their recent hot streak will be plenty enough to get us over the total we locked in on Sunday.
Score Prediction: Wisconsin 87 –Montana 67
McNeese +7.5 : This dog is live. Not enough people are talking about the injury to Dillon Hunter.
I think that Dillon Hunter is a decent loss for Clemson tonight.
Non garbage time this minutes this season
On floor: Holding opponents to .95 points per possession
Off floor: Opponents scoring 1.04 points per possession
His impact goes way beyond the box score. The ball handling, passing and defensive court presence will be greatly missed in this matchup with McNeese. The Clemson backcourt now essentially is 2-deep. It is a great two, but McNeese is going to have a field day with their defensive pressure on Jake Heidbreder & Del Jones when they enter into the game. The Cowboys rank 18 in the country in forcing turnovers and are 11th in steal percentage. They are also 20th in frequency of getting out into transition on offense. I think their pace and physicality could rack up fouls on Chase Hunter and Jaeden Zackery and put the Tigers in a world of hurt with no depth.
McNeese left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth last year after getting blasted by Gonzaga in the R64, but I feel that this year is a better version of the Cowboys. KenPom agrees. They are ranked 8 spots higher than a year ago when they went 30-4. Will Wade (Clemson alum & admitted fan) is a fantastic coach that can gameplan to win a game like this. He also just agreed to terms with NC State so all of that speculation is put to bed now. It is all about finishing strong as a unit before they all depart lovely Lake Charles. Clemson probably wins a very tight on here, but it is going to be a nail biter. SQ’s predicted score is 73.1-69.7. I see this one coming down to the final possession. Another clutch end of game shot from Chase Hunter? I wouldn’t rule it out. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Clemson 68 – McNeese 66
VCU +2.5 : A beautiful clash of styles that we have here in Denver. VCU is #1 in the country in effective FG% on defense. BYU is #7 in the country in effective FG% on offense. Both teams are full of veterans and have a ton of experience. The difference? VCU’s Offense > BYU’s Defense.
The Rams get praised constantly for their defensive presence, but their offense is pretty damn good as well. The Rams are 45th in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency. They are also 12th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. The BYU defense has several holes that the Rams expose. The Cougars are 166th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Not great. They also are 331st in opponent three point rate allowed and are 242nd in opponent three point percentage.
I like VCU’s advantage with the secondary units in this one. I am very confident with the ball in Max Shulga’s hands in a close game. Give me the points with the Rams. I think they win outright.
Score Prediction: VCU 75 – BYU 71
Georgia +6.5 : Gonzaga has been penciled into the 2nd round in every bracket in America outside of Athens, GA. Are we sure that Gonzaga is that much better than Georgia? You know that I am a slut for analytics, and boy are those in Gonzaga’s favor … but I am not seeing where the 6.5 point gap is here on a neutral. Asa Newell is a very, very bad matchup for the Gonzaga bigs. His physicality and athleticism will be a real problem.
I love this defense from Asa Newell. This is the type of stuff we saw from him more at Montverde. Even if he doesn't end up as more of a 5, I think he has all the tools to be a really versatile and switchable defender. pic.twitter.com/PWJRSMgKcT
Asa Newell been shooting 33% from three since start of February. If he can keep progressing from deep then that opens up the route for him at the 4 next level. pic.twitter.com/JeDSPXExxD
Georgia is very underrated in my opinion. They just beat Florida a few weeks ago! Everyone has already seemingly forgotten that happened. The Bulldogs are the 26th best defense in KenPom and are 16th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. I think that Newell, Godfrey and Cyril can present a physicality to Gonzaga that they clearly struggle with. Hi Saint Mary’s. UGA’s kryptonite is turning the ball over. Gonzaga is just average at forcing them. No crazy matchup edge there. I think the Dawgs can hang around here. They are SEC battle tested. This high octane Gonzaga offense is nothing they haven’t seen before in conference. Hell, UGA may even win. Give us the points.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 77 – UGA 73
Texas A&M -7 : Yeah, I am not sure what everyone is seeing here. Yale is a very trendy upset pick in this matchup. I don’t even see it in the realm of possibility from an outright perspective. I think this is a dog walk. The combination of the #1 offensive rebounding unit in the country (by a wide margin) and the #7 KenPom defense will be too much for the Bulldogs to overcome. Yale’s 117th ranked defense will not be enough to keep them competitive. Everybody remembers the Auburn win from a year ago for Yale, but they are forgetting the ass kicking that SDSU handed to them in the R32. Danny Wolf and Matt Knowling aren’t walking through that door tomorrow either. Also, people seem to forget that A&M pushed Houston to OT as a 9 seed in the R32 a season ago. The rest the Aggies gained from not going on a deep run in Nashville (as they have done the past two seasons) is a win for them in my opinion. I see this as a comfortable double digit victory for A&M. I will gladly lay it with only 31% of the tickets on Texas A&M. Aggies go on a run to the 2nd weekend. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 76 – Yale 62
Mizzou -6 : Bucking another trendy upset here.
No. 11 Drake +6.5 (vs. No. 6 Missouri) is the most-bet #MarchMadness side by total number of tickets at @ESPNBET
I am riding passenger seat with the books here while having the #5 KenPom offense & #2 free throw rate in the backseat. I like the sound of that. We’ve been doing this too long to pass up on an opportunity to fade a massive public dog of this magnitude. I am not even going to get in the weeds of analytics. This is standard operating procedure for us. M-I-Z
Score Prediction: Missouri 76 – Drake 66
Utah State +5 : I have a huge belief in the Mountain West for this R64. I know it is hard for you guys to trust in this group of teams, but these matchups are fantastic. San Diego State is nowhere near as good as the three teams that we have left per analytics and my own personal opinion. Don’t let their ass kicking cloud your judgement.
There might only be one person who believes less in this Bruins team than I do. His name is Mick Cronin. He is so done with this group. He has been berating them in the media all year long and you can see how visibly frustrated he is on the sidelines when he’s coaching them (more than his normal grumpy self). With that last ass kicking from Wisconsin and the Villanova-Cronin chatter growing louder and louder, I am not sure how UCLA circles the wagons here to cover a 5 point spread against a quality Utah State team.
Utah State has very similar offensive analytics to Wisconsin who just ass blasted the Bruins. This is the #17 rated offense in KenPom (22nd in effective field goal percentage) and they also rank 17th in Rim & 3 rate per ShotQuality. Rim & 3 rate is very important when facing the Bruins. They want to force you into tough 2’s, but Utah State will refuse to take them. The Aggies also have the size to rebound well in this one. Utah State is 44th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and UCLA is only 151st in keeping opponents off of the offensive glass.
It is worth noting that UCLA is 2-7 straight up outside of the pacific time zone this year. This game is in Lexington, KY. The matchup is essentially a PK on ShotQuality with a predicted score of 72.6-71.9. I am in full agreeance. I will gladly take the points. I think Utah State wins outright. My favorite one of Thursday. Best Bet.
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