Back to the winning ways last night! Excited for today’s action. I will be onsite for the Charleston Classic. We already have three plays locked in for it (including a Best Bet). Stay tuned for some adds throughout the day. Including a few live bets! We don’t do those often because I can’t guarantee you all can see them in time. Doesn’t sit right with me. However, you all have a heads up today! Be on the lookout. Also, two Best Bets today. Let’s get hot!
11/21 Card :
Tulane +11.5 +
South Carolina +3 +
BC/Davidson over 137 **Best Bet** +
UVA -3.5 (DK)
Clemson -3.5 +
Mississippi State -6.5 (Caesars) **Best Bet**
Nebraska -1.5 (Caesars)
+ Given yesterday on X
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required. Always appreciated!
Sorry friends. Busy morning. These 2H melts are driving me insane. Another night where we would’ve swept the board on the 1H lines. Another night where the losses were graded as wins on Shot Quality. That is the game we play though. It will swing our way. Hopefully, sooner rather than later. We were able to cash the Best Bet to end the night, thankfully. Alabama was super impressive in what was essentially a road game at the United Center. Felt good to get that one home. Let’s let that win propel us to a great night tonight!
Also, Charleston Classic day is tomorrow! Will have pre-game plays, live bets, player props, etc. going. Stay tuned for a big content day.
25/26 Season Record: 28-24
25/26 Best Bet Record: 9-6
11/20 Card :
Memphis +15.5 -118 (6:00pm – CBSSN) (DK)
Miami -21.5 (7:00pm – ACC Extra)(DK)
Queens -6.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+)(FD)
Oklahoma -24.5 (8:00pm – SECN+)(FD)
Texas Tech -7.5 (8:30pm – CBSSN) **Best Bet**+
Cal Poly +13 (9:00pm – ESPN+) (Caesars)
+ Given on X yesterday afternoon
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Memphis +15.5 : We are getting our night started in the Baha Mar ballroom. It feels dirty going against the Boilermakers who always do right by us, but this number is simply too inflated.
Shot Quality is projecting a crazy close matchup in this one. I am not going to go THAT far, but I do see this game ending in the 10-12 point range. There is significant value baked in here with the books knowing they can still get a heavy Purdue handle at the current number.
The ball pressure that the Memphis guards will be able to deploy on Purdue’s backcourt will be the difference maker in keeping this within the number. The Tigers come into today’s matchup ranked 36th in the country in defensive steal percentage. These are the type of rosters that Fletcher Loyer really struggles with. It intensifies the pressure on Braden Smith, and I think we will see another large helping of steals and runouts for the Tigers today.
I am also of the belief that the ballroom backdrop neutralizes the shooting gap in this matchup. We have seen a wide variety of scores here over the years, but there have definitely been more low scoring affairs than shootouts. This amount of points in a game I lean to the under on is too good to pass up. Give us the dog.
Score Prediction:Purdue 82 – Memphis 71
Miami -21.5 : We will always thank the 24/25 Phoenix for the early season gifts they gave us a year ago. We sniped a talented roster and took advantage with them for the better part of 2 months before the books caught on. Unfortunately, the portal & NIL ripped that team apart. I am not high on Billy Taylor’s roster this season. They still sit at a KenPom rank of 251st, but I expect that to slide back into the mid-300’s where he was in his first two seasons at Elon.
The ugliest wart on the Elon resume to this point is their defense. The Phoenix currently sit 343rd in KenPom adjusted defensive rating. They can’t look at Shot Quality to help them. They are 332nd there as well. This opens the door for Miami to win by margin tonight. The Canes have really impressed me on the offensive side of the court to start the year.
Shot Quality shows us that the hot start is justified from the looks they are getting. I would also not hate a look at the Miami team total tonight. It is going to be a fun one for the Canes.
Elon is also struggling in transition and from the 3 point line as you can see above. They simply will not be able to score enough to keep up here. I will lay the big number with the Canes.
Score Prediction: Miami 94 – Elon 67
Queens -6.5 : You could have told me any time in the past that Queens would never be laying 6.5 points against UNCG in the history of their program and I would have believed you. UNCG has been a phenomenal mid-major program for many, many years. The Spartans are usually a lock for Top 150 in KenPom. However, things have gotten ugly in Greensboro this season. This has been Mike Jones’ worst recruiting job in this time at UNCG and the losses will continue to pile up.
The advanced analytics show there is no “bad luck” to blame this horrible start to the season on. The Shot Quality regression analysis indicates that there is no reprieve for the struggles on the way, and the KenPom Scouting Report is as red as a fire truck. This team sucks ass. There isn’t much more that I am calculating into this play (well, I do love that Queens hit 16 threes last time out). Full fade of the Spartans.
Score Prediction: Queens 82 – UNCG 72
Oklahoma -24.5 : I love this spot for Oklahoma. The Sooners offense should have a field day tonight. This offense has one of the better SQ offensive profiles that I have come across this season:
Also, Nijel Pack is heating up. That might be an understatement. The super duper senior is 11/19 from the three point line in his last two contests. That is bad news for an Oral Roberts defense that can’t stop a nosebleed this season. The Golden Eagles are 334th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rating, and are 319th in 3PT % allowed. Bombs away for Pack and the Sooners.
Oral Roberts is a team we need to take advantage of in their current state. They have a philosophy of shooting a ton of threes (6th in the country in 3pt rate), but they are a dreadful shooting team. Oral Roberts is 329th in 3PT %. They aren’t just missing great looks. This team is taking horrible 3’s. The Golden Eagles are 321st in Assist/Field Goal Made. Shot Quality also rates them 333rd in their passing metric. Tons of ISO and pull-up threes.
The Sooners also have a MASSIVE edge in the interior. There will be second chance points galore. Oral Roberts is going to get blitzed tonight. We will lay the big number.
Score Prediction: Oklahoma 95 – Oral Roberts 65
Texas Tech -7.5 : We got an excellent number here yesterday afternoon. This is touching -10.5 almost across the board at this point. I was texting with my buddy Max Hofmeyer (@hoffy812 on X) after I locked in this play. We could not believe that this Red Raiders team was laying under double digits on a neutral court against Wake Forest. The market has agreed.
JT Toppin is the type of player that can will a team to a Final Four
Win or lose, he will be the best player on the floor in almost every game this season
JT Toppin has quickly kicked into his All-American gear after dealing with a knock to start the season. There is absolutely no answer for him on this Demon Deacon roster. We watched the Wake/Michigan game and the Deacs struggled mightily with Aday Mara. Toppin is a different type of player, but I do not think highly of Wake’s frontcourt on the defensive end. Wake Forest ranks 295th in 2pt % allowed on defense. That is a recipe for disaster with Toppin’s ability around the rim.
I expect Wake’s offense to struggle tonight. The do not have a strength that they can lean on when things get tough against a Grant McCasland defense. They are not a great shooting team, don’t finish well around the rim, and are not succeeding in transition (132nd in SQ Transition PP). I just cannot fathom how they are in this game tonight. I am laying the number with the Red Raiders with the upmost confidence. One of my favorite plays of the year to this point. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 78 – Wake Forest 63
Cal Poly +13 : I think this is a sneaky spot to take a chance with a dog to end our night. Poly is a ton of fun to watch. The Mustangs have risen all of the way to 2nd in KenPom adjusted tempo. They are also 20th nationally in points from three pointers. I think this offense can pack enough punch to keep us within the number here. The Utah defense is just non-existent to start the year despite their undefeated start. They are rated 144th defensively by KenPom, and Shot Quality has dropped them all of the way to 202nd in their adjusted rating. They’ve allowed everyone to score on them this year in a mid-major only schedule to this point. Poly will score enough to keep us within the number here.
Rough go over the last week. Even so, we are still hitting at a 55% clip overall and 57% on the Best Bets for the year. Still an elite level in the legit/non-phony gambling space. There will be ebbs and flows all year long. Long game, folks. Definitely want to be doing better on the Best Bets. We usually hit at a 59% clip. I will say that we are getting the shit end of the stick on late game luck though. THREE of our Best Bets have lost on the last shot of the game in the last week or so. If just one of those go the other way, then we are right where we should be & it is a different story. The luck will swing our way shortly. We will continue to grind until it does!
11/20 Write-up coming tomorrow!
11/19 Card :
USF +4.5 -105 (DK)
Creighton team total over 92.5 (Caesars)
Alabama +3.5 (FD) **Best Bet**
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required. Always appreciated!
Time to get on a heater after an awesome Thursday night! I absolutely love this card & hope we are able to pull off another sweep! Scroll down for a breakdown of each matchup:
25/26 Season Record: 22-14
25/26 Best Bet Record 7-3
11/14 Card :
Illinois State/USC over 156.5 (7:30pm – Peacock)+
UAB +2.5 (7:30pm – ESPN+)(FD)**Best Bet**
Colorado ML -110 (9:00pm – ESPN+)(FD)
UCLA +3 (10:00pm – Peacock) **Best Bet**+
+ Given on X last night
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Illinois State/USC over 156.5 : We snagged a good number here last night. I see this touching 158 to 158.5 across the board at the books. The movement is justified. I think we see some efficient scoring paired with pace tonight.
The Trojans come into tonight’s game rated 13th in adjusted tempo per KenPom. They will be setting the pace tonight so that is important to note. Also, USC has scored 94 and 114 points in their first two games of the season. The offense was of high quality in both of those buy games. Shot Quality backed both performances up with SQ scores of 103 and 117 in those games. Illinois State is currently ranked 302nd in allowing shots at the rim per Shot Quality. KenPom shows that they are ranked 245th in 2pt% allowed. It should be another excellent night offensively for USC.
Illinois State will be a great dance party for an over. Both of their totals have gone under this season, but Shot Quality graded both games well over the closing total. Water finds it’s balance here in regards to the looks they are allowing + the unlucky splits they’ve had on offense so far. This is one of the most talented mid-major rosters in the country from an offensive perspective. Chase Walker has an excellent chance to win the Valley player of the year this season. He has been in foul trouble in the first two contests (needs to clean that up), so I feel tonight could be his chance to explode offensively & get his season headed in the right direction. The Redbirds backcourt is also littered with shooters led by former Wisconsin Mr. Basketball, Johnny Kinziger. I love their offensive make-up.
This game is being played at the Intuit Dome. This will be a semi-home for USC, but I expect a zero crowd for a 4:30pm local tip. This should help Illinois State carry us to the over. Let’s score some points!
Score Prediction:USC 88 – Illinois State 74
UAB +2.5 : Fellas, this was the spot we were waiting on. It appears Vegas will be on our side here, so we are not going to see the market move we had hoped for. Public money is pouring in on High Point and the books aren’t flinching. We know what to do.
Postgame: Andy Kennedy after the 74-77 loss to Alabama State at home:
“Again I don’t want to call these kids out of course. I don’t know why we don’t do that anymore, are we not gonna change that now that we are paying them?” – @CoachAK13
Andy Kennedy was heated after dropping a home game to Alabama State on Tuesday night. That is just not an acceptable performance for the program he has built in Birmingham. I do have a feeling that this was the wake up call this new group of guys needed. There is talent here. UAB suffered a 94-70 defeat to NC State before this loss to Alabama State. Shot Quality shows that that game was way more competitive than it appears from the box score. The SQ score was 79-78 in NC State’s favor.
This is an ultimate regression to mean spot here. High Point is shooting way above the predictive metrics. They are scoring 1.34 PPP and Shot Quality shows that should be closer to 1.17 PPP. UAB is also due for better luck on the offensive AND defensive end. There should be a decent true home atmosphere on a Friday night in Birmingham. I love this spot. UAB outright. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: UAB 86 – High Point 81
Colorado ML -110 : This Providence defense is completely non-existent to start the year. That is a recipe for disaster when traveling across the country to Boulder. Providence has allowed 79 to Holy Cross, 107 to Virginia Tech (86 in regulation), and 81 to Penn in their first three games of the season. You would think that this would be simply pace driven, but they are only 57th in adjusted tempo at KenPom. The warts of this defense begin to show when you take a deep dive further into the data. The Friars are 306th in the country in defending the three point line to start the year. They are allowing opponents to shoot 39.3% from distance. Providence is also 303rd in forcing turnovers, and are even worse at 334th in non-steal turnover percentage. This is an effort thing on that end of the court. The Friars are not closing out on threes & they are not trying to force bad passes. This is a really poor unit at the moment.
Colorado looks poised to take advantage of these Friar defensive shortcomings. The Buffaloes offense is in high gear to get the 25/26 season started. They are 27th in protecting the ball on offense, and are 47th in the country in 3PT % at 40%. Love the matchup edges there. Look, I could see you giving me pushback on the Colorado defense struggling out of the gate as well. That is why we love our friends over at Shot Quality.
The Colorado defense is showing unlucky splits from 3pt, mid-range, and post-up scenarios. They are allowing 1.21 PPP when it should be closer to 1.03. I am just fine backing this team tonight.
I think Colorado squeaks out a win here in a true home spot. Happy to take a -110 ML.
Score Prediction: Colorado 83 – Providence 79
UCLA +3 : I love, love, love this spot for the Bruins. This is not a true home game. It is also being played at the Intuit Dome where USC is getting our night started. However, I see these teams closer to PK on a neutral at this point in the season.
Mick Cronin told reporters that UCLA's Donovan Dent (muscle strain) will play on Friday against Arizona.
Arizona was fantastic against Florida to get the season started on opening night. They were our first Best Bet cashed! However, the Florida guard play has been pretty poor to start the season. Donovan Dent is a completely different animal. Him being active for this game is MASSIVE for the Bruins. His facilitating and scoring will stretch the Arizona defense. This will also allow Bilodeau to get his work. It should be a nice night offensively for the Bruins.
The main angle of the handicap in this one is the defensive end for UCLA. We saw Koa Peat absolutely shred Florida with his rise up mid-range shots in the paint. That will not fly against Mick Cronin. He will have the Bruins in a defensive shell with Booker, Jamerson, etc clogging the paint in a semblance of a pack-line. It is not going to be easy for Peat in the interior. Arizona will have to beat UCLA from the three point line. That is not going to be easy. UCLA is allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from 3 to start the year, but Shot Quality shows they should be closer to 32%. Arizona is also due for heavy regression on three point percentage. Not a good mixture for the Wildcats. The Bruins defense is currently rated 29th in KenPom. I expect that to improve as we move on throughout this year. I believe it has a chance to be an elite unit once again coming off of a final KenPom defensive rank of 2nd in 22/23 & 14th a season ago.
I like Mick Cronin to get the best of Tommy Lloyd here in this early season battle. Give me the points as a Best Bet. Bruins win this game outright.
Tough one last night. Time to flush it and move on. Short card with the short slate. Write-up for the 11/14 Card coming in the AM. Will have some early adds for that card posted on Twitter/X later tonight.
11/13 Card :
Purdue +4 **BEST BET** (given last night on X)
FIU +21.5 (FD)
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required. Always appreciated!
Got back to the winning ways last night with a 4-3 record (with a cashed Best Bet!). Had a couple of flatlines in 2H’s that kept us from have a monster night. Will take it though. Let’s build on it today!
PS: The write-up this week will be for Friday’s card
11/12 Card :
Longwood +1.5 (DK)
NC State team total under 93.5 (FD)
Little Rock/Marquette over 156.5 (FD) **Best Bet**
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required. Always appreciated!
First stinker of the year last night. It will happen many times over the course of this season. Just have to flush it and get back on the winning train!
I know I promised a write-up today, but I am just too busy with the day job to get it done. I will make it up this week on another day. Sorry gents. Heavy card tonight. Best slate of the year to this point. Let’s have a good one!
11/11 Card :
Michigan -15.5 (Caesars)
EIU/Notre Dame over 143.5 (DK)
Radford +19 (DK)
Murray State +12.5 **Best Bet** (given last night)
Kentucky team total over 83.5 (DK)
Texas Tech/Illinois under 168 (Caesars)
Creighton/Gonzaga over 164.5 (DK)
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required. Always appreciated!
What an incredible start to our 25/26 season! 15-7 overall & going 5-1 on Best Bets is about as good as you can hope for starting out the year. We are starting to get data points that will help us get even stronger moving forward I hope. This season should be one hell of a ride. The domestic and international freshmen are absolutely unreal. The level of college basketball continues to rise & I am here for it!
Appreciate all of you! Even the trolls (worry about y’all though)
11/10 Card :
UNCW +2.5 (DK) **Best Bet** Miss St./Iowa St. under 151.5 (given last night)
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required. Always appreciated!
Damn, it feels good to be back! I’m ecstatic that we have been able to get off to a great start. 10-5 & 4-0 on Best Bets is a great way to get our season kicked off. If you are new here, welcome! There will be good nights & good weeks, but there will also be bad nights & bad weeks (hopefully a minuscule amount!). Please bet responsibly and within your means. No phony AI algorithms or “+50000 Unit BOMB WHALE PLAY”‘s here. I am just a regular guy that enjoys the college game and is skilled at wagering on it. I don’t post with units won because I am not trying to snail oil sales anyone. I am simply just trying to provide y’all with winners. I want you to wager your own money how you please. I personally 2u my Best Bets, but it is completely up to how you want your strategy to be.
The best part about winning is cashing our slips together. Keep interacting on X. It pumps me up!
25/26 Season Record: 10-5
25/26 Best Bet Record 4-0
11/8 Card :
Duke -34.5 (1:30pm – CW Network)+
Virginia Tech +2.5 (4:00pm – Peacock)(DK)**Best Bet**
Arkansas/Michigan State under 156.5 (7:00pm – Fox)(DK)
UNLV -4.5 (9:00pm – MW Network)+
Oklahoma +11.5 (10:30pm – ESPN2)+
+ Given on X last night
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Duke -34.5 : I was very excited to back the Blue Devils for several days now. I was hoping that the books would open this near the KenPom margin of 27. Unfortunately, Vegas was wise to it. I had a personal limit of 35 so this was still a play when it opened at 34.5. Duke has still taken a ton of money at this price. The spread is up to 37 and 37.5 at most places. It is justified.
The defensive ceiling of this Blue Devils team is Top 5 in the country. There were concerns if that end of the court would experience a drop off with the loss of Flagg and Maluach, but Cameron Boozer and Dame Sarr look like they are going to fill in those gaps perfectly. We saw Western Carolina on opening night when we cashed a Cincinnati ticket against them. That offense is putrid. The Catamounts scored 59 points and Shot Quality shows that was pretty spot on with a SQ score of 64. Western Carolina is now ranked 266th in KenPom and 324th on SQ for adjusted offense. I do not see a path to Western Carolina breaking the 60 point mark today.
Duke should get whatever the want on the offensive end today. Western Carolina allowed Cincinnati to go 13/17 on shots at the rim on opening night. They also put the Bearcats to the stripe 30 times. Cameron Boozer is going to have his breakout performance today. Guaranteed. It should also be a fantastic day for the Duke snipers. Cincinnati was able to make 10 threes against the Catamounts the other night, and Duke’s shooters lap Cincy’s in ability. If you want to look at Isaiah Evans made threes props, I wouldn’t be mad at ya!
Isaiah Evans is one of the best movement shooters I’ve ever seen in the college level, the way he moves without the ball you will have to blitz him off screens because he’s that good of a shooter. pic.twitter.com/RdKI8IxxnE
This will get ugly. Quickly. I am confident laying the big number here.
Score Prediction:Duke 95 – Western Carolina 56
Virginia Tech +2.5 : I absolutely love that we are getting points here. This is my Best Bet.
I have mentioned my international scouting over the summer. We hit big with Murray State in the opener because we knew of Domon before anyone else. Neoklis Avdalas is definitely not under the radar, but he is going to introduce himself to the masses today.
Just 8 points in the opener for Va Tech's Neoklis Avdalas but the 9 assists are extremely promising. He also had 2 blocks and @EvanMiya already grades him as the best defender on the team pic.twitter.com/sbQQ8XDEEL
— Maxwell Clark – West Coast Hoops (@ClarkieCaps) November 4, 2025
It is going to sound corny, but this guy is the closest to Luka Doncic’s game that we have in the country right now. He is a 6’9 true facilitator that can score at an elite level. The points weren’t there in the opener (think that changes today), but he was able to record 9 assists (!!!) and only one turnover in his debut. Providence is going to struggle heavily on the defensive end today in my opinion. They allowed Holy Cross to score 79 points in the opener. SQ Score backed it up with a total of 77. The Friars do not have an answer for Avdalas.
I also love what Virginia Tech brings defensively this year. The tweet above mentions it, but Avdalas projects to be an elite defender in the college game as well. Also, Tobi Lawal is one of the most fun shot erasers that we have in the game. His athleticism is off of the charts. Amani Hansberry was another important add this offseason by Mike Young. He brings an interior toughness that the Hokies have needed for a few years now.
The coaching edge in this matchup is heavily in Mike Young’s favor. I am still not a believer in Kim English. I also don’t love his roster construction. They will undoubtedly be better than a season ago, but by how much? I have VT favored by 3.5 on a neutral, so getting 2.5 brings this to a Best Bet. Go Hokies.
Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 79 – Providence 75
Arkansas/Michigan State Under 156.5: I think this is going to be a war at the Breslin Center today. Pace is a reason for pause, but I believe the defenses will reign supreme and get us under the total here.
Michigan State returns an awesome frontcourt this year, but I worry about their guard play. This should be one of the worst three point shooting teams in the Big 10 this year in my estimation. The Arkansas guards really bought in to the defensive end of the court near the end of last season. That matters. Billy Richmond is a defender that has really impressed me. I think the points from the Michigan State backcourt could be hard to come by with the pressure defense the Hogs will impose. On the other end, I believe that Arkansas is going to have fits trying to get points in the paint. Nick Pringle’s offensive game is solely at the rim. Whether it is from offensive rebounds or dump-offs/lobs. That isn’t going to fly with Cooper, Kohler and Carr. These guys attack the glass and protect the rim at an elite level.
I love the defensive edges mentioned above. You worry about the pace that Arkansas will try to impose in this game, but I truly believe Izzo knows his back-court limitations and will drag this out into a halfcourt game as much as he can at home. Give me the under here.
Score Prediction: Michigan State 76 – Arkansas 75
UNLV -4.5 : I got chirped a bit for this play on Twitter last night, but look at the potential CLV we are gaining! This is up to -8 across the board at the books at the time of me writing this. Listen, I get it. The opening night loss to UT Martin was embarrassing. However, we back numbers here. Not teams.
This was a sneaky scheduling spot that I had my eye on this week. Chattanooga had to fly across the country to Moraga last night to get their ass kicked by Saint Mary’s. They were rewarded with a turnaround quick flight to Vegas to play another game today. Luckily, we got our play in before the ass kicking last night. I am just not a fan of the Mocs roster this season. The stalwarts of this team over the past few seasons have exited the program through graduation and the portal. I obviously will grade them even worse when coming off of a back-to-back & also playing a well rested squad.
There is talent on this UNLV team. I promise you. I am willing to overlook this opening night loss. The roster and coaching staff was completely overhauled. I believe there is enough talent there for a bounce back tonight at home against an inferior opponent on a B2B. We got a great number here. Let’s win.
Score Prediction: UNLV 79 – Chattanooga 70
Oklahoma +11.5 : I love backing Porter Moser getting this many points in a non-conference game. This number was posted here due to the KenPom projected score, but it is simply too many points.
Moser is a coach that always has his team in prime form to start the year. Over the last two seasons the Sooners have knocked off Iowa, USC, Providence x2, Arkansas, Arizona, Louisville, Michigan, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State etc. all before Christmas. The Kennel is a different animal and y’all know how I feel about the Zags this year, but I will take 11.5 with Moser in the non-con any day. Outside of the Moser angle, I also believe that OU has the interior length and toughness to not get overwhelmed by Gonzaga in the post. Wague and Davis can take the blows in the interior, and I love what we saw from Atak in the opener. This freshman is going to excel in pulling Huff and Ike out of the paint to stretch the floor for his own looks, but also for the OU guards and wings to slash the lane.
Oklahoma freshman Kuol Atak had 18 points in just 20 minutes versus SFU,
Hit four threes at 6-foot-9 with a plus wingspan — has real length and showed some touch: pic.twitter.com/tlDwmgrDPA
I am pretty much in agreeance here with the Shot Quality projected score. I just think there will be a little bit more scoring, but 7 is spot on with my prediction. Give us the points. Boomer Sooner.
threepointsniper.com 