November was one for the record books. In the wrong way. It was our first losing month in a few years. We finished the month 48-48. Tough to take, but wagering is never guaranteed. Proud of the streak we had going until it was snapped. After Mississippi State blew the lead the other night and then lost in OT, I needed a break. You will always get the truth and honesty here in regards to how things are going. I hope that you can respect that even in the down times. We are taking a break from the Best Bets as well until we heat up a bit. Hopefully returning with them soon.
In positive news, I think that getting back into campus arenas will swing the fortune back our way. We saw some crazy variance over Feast Week on the neutrals. The most that I personally can remember. The final results in the majority of the games were WAY off of closing lines. We have certainly had more tough breaks than fortunate breaks this year too. It always evens out. Just have to stay the course and trust in the process!
Today’s card is below. Let’s get December started off with a bang! There will be a write-up this week. Maybe two. Just not sure of what days yet. Will keep you posted.
Fucking pathetic. I am sorry y’all. This is supposed to be fun and profitable like it has been since 2020 on here. It is neither right now. I am trusting that what has made us successful over the years will flip the script. Today needs to be that day.
Clawed out at 3-2 night last night. Still can’t escape the 2H melts! Tennessee and Houston appeared to be cruising. Whatever man. Will continue to grind it out. Feeling good about this Thanksgiving card. Hope y’all have an awesome day with family and friends!!!
Houston Team Total over 71.5 (3:30pm – TNT) (Caesars)
Tennessee -2.5 -118 (7:00pm – TNT) **Best Bet** +
Auburn +5.5 (8:00pm – TruTV)(FD)
Gonzaga/Michigan under 163.5 (9:30pm – TNT)(MGM)
Texas +3.5 (9:30pm – ESPN) (DK)
+ Given on X last night
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Houston Team Total over 71.5 : This is a terrible draw for Notre Dame. Houston should be able to get whatever they want offensively in this game. The Fighting Irish come into today’s tilt ranked 321st in the country in block percentage. There is simply no rim protection on this roster. That is TROUBLE when you are dealing with the likes of Tugler and Cenac Jr. around the rim. Not only should the Irish be shaking in their boots about the rim rattling bigs, but Kingston Flemings is the real deal, folks.
Houston freshman Kingston Flemings is a STAR 💫
Flemings had 25 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists in a tough loss against Tennessee pic.twitter.com/sR7drFBk03
His ability to get the ball to the rim brings a different dynamic to this offense from the attack with Cryer over the last several years. He was driving at will against one of the best defenses in the country in Tennessee (check the video above – super impressive). I expect a lot more where that came from today against a team with no shot blocking prowess.
You worry about pace here. Notre Dame and Houston both will play slow. I just see the efficiency of Houston on the offensive end being through the roof. Buying that 2pt% stock now. Give me the team total.
Score Prediction:Houston Team Total – 75
Tennessee -2.5 -118 : Had to stay up late and jump on this one at open. I knew we would see a sky rocket in the market. Apologies to those that weren’t able to snag, but congrats to all of you that were still up when this dropped. Insane CLV coming our way. For the record, I usually don’t like to answer the “Would you still play it at the current number?” question. I hate endorsing plays at a lesser value. This is an exception. I don’t think the market will ever touch what Tennessee wins this game by. I love this play so much.
How fucking impressive were the Vols last night?! Those that have been here for a while know that the Vols are one of my favorite programs in the country. Yes, we are still waiting for Rick to figure it out in March, but this program is a model of regular season elite consistency. We wagered against them yesterday because of my personal number, and I just presumed it to be a terrible matchup edge. I was under the impression that the frontcourts would cancel out and that the Houston backcourt would be the difference. That was not the case. I left that game coming away way more impressed with the Vols interior. Let’s call it like it is. They Houston’d Houston down the stretch in the paint.
Tennessee knocks off Houston! The Vols had the edge in some key areas:
🏀+8 points in the paint (38 vs. 30) 🏀+6 second-chance points (16 vs. 10) 🏀+13 bench points (24 vs. 11) pic.twitter.com/SeGKsygjnA
Jaylen Carey was a menace on the offensive glass. His offensive rebounding and second chance points were the difference. Having that interior firepower off of the bench is such a weapon. This team is for real.
All of this leads me into why I think Kansas is fried in this matchup. Without Darryn Peterson, it is Bidunga/Tiller ball. That was able to carry them against Notre Dame’s frontline (mentioned them earlier). Yes, they were able to also get the win over Syracuse yesterday.. but damn was it ugly. They had 15 turnovers to Syracuse’s 2. Offensive rebounding was 13 to 11, so Cuse was able to compete there. The difference was that Cuse shot 32% from the field and missed 10 free throws. Kansas was practically trying to give the game away at the end of the game. Cuse just couldn’t take advantage. Kansas is nowhere near where they need to be right now. Tennessee will make Kansas pay for this sloppy play today. The Vols frontline will hinder Bidunga/Tiller ball, and Gillespie and Ament will take care of the rest. This game will trend more to the KU/Duke game than what we have seen over the past two days. Vols by a ton. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 76 – Kansas 67
Auburn +5.5 : I worry about the Red Storm on the offensive glass in this game. How can you not? It has been an abomination in that department from St. John’s in the Players Era. They have allowed 17 offensive rebounds to Iowa State, and 26 (!!!) to Baylor in their first two games. This is not something that is getting corrected on a third day in a row of an MTE. Auburn is currently 23rd in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. The Tigers are poised to take advantage of this edge. I also love how the Auburn backcourt is protecting the ball. The Tigers are 10th in the country in turnover percentage on offense. They should get many more cracks at the rim today by winning the turnover and offensive rebounding battle. Love that when backing dog.
The point guard situation for St. John’s is still in disarray in my opinion. Dylan Darling is getting the lions share of the minutes at them moment. Not sure that is a good thing. He has been dreadful in my eyes at this MTE. Darling just seems to be struggling with the level of athleticism at the Players Era. He may figure it out as the season rolls along, but I don’t think he flips the switch on Day 3 in Vegas.
With the perceived turnover, offensive rebounding, and point guard edge that Auburn has in this matchup, I will be backing the dog. Would not be shocked to see the Tigers win this outright. War Damn.
Score Prediction: Auburn 84 – St. John’s 82
Gonzaga/Michigan under 163.5 : This is not fun at all. I understand. Taking the under in a matchup against two of the better teams of the season to this point (still can’t believe we have the Zags 45 to 1) is never a desirable wager. However, I think it is the right one today.
I knew that the Gonzaga defense would be tremendously better this year. That was one of the reasons we added them to our preseason futures portfolio. I just didn’t know they would be THIS good. The Zags are rated 4th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive metric. The defensive wing presence of Grant-Foster and Warley is something that this team desperately needed. This team is ready to make a run at a title. Also, this may surprise all of you. It surprised me as well. Michigan is now rated #1 in KenPom’s defensive metric. We have a battle of Top 5 analytic defenses tonight on a 3rd day of action in a row. Both offenses are due for a slight (very slight) downturn in points per possession per Shot Quality. Give us the under with some tired jump shooting legs and terrific defense.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 80 – Michigan 77
Texas +3.5 : I really like the Longhorns here. So do our friends over at Shot Quality Bets. SQ is projecting the following:
I have this game as a PK on a neutral. Will gladly take 3.5 points.
Here are also some quality metrics from Texas’ SQ Page:
The high free throw rate is important here. That is the biggest blemish on NC State’s resume to start this season. The Wolfpack are 312th in the country in opponent free throw rate. The SQ PPP regression analysis also shows that the Longhorns offense is at 1.27 PPP on the year. It should be a good day offensively for Texas.
The Longhorns defense has some things to work on for sure, but they can build on the havoc they are causing. Texas is 13th in the country in steal percentage, and 18th in the country in block percentage. NC State was able to pull way from Boise yesterday by creating havoc of their own. I think Texas neutralizes that Wolfpack strength today.
This should be a PK. Give us the points. Texas wins outright.
We are back after a much needed two days off. Refreshed and ready to go for Feast Week! The card for today’s action is below. We are letting the dogs bark in Vegas! Boise is going to be barking for us in Maui as well. No Best Bet today. Let’s get our feet wet again before diving back into those. May the late game luck be in our favor today, gents.
Dreadful day yesterday. 3-6 and whiffed on two Best Bets. Maybe the worst day we have had since 2020 on here. If not, close to it. We lost by two hooks again. The late game luck still is just in our favor at the moment. In this business, you have to know when to take a step back and cool the jets. We will take a breather today and regroup and come back strong tomorrow. Hope you have a great Saturday, gents!
Back to the winning ways last night! Excited for today’s action. I will be onsite for the Charleston Classic. We already have three plays locked in for it (including a Best Bet). Stay tuned for some adds throughout the day. Including a few live bets! We don’t do those often because I can’t guarantee you all can see them in time. Doesn’t sit right with me. However, you all have a heads up today! Be on the lookout. Also, two Best Bets today. Let’s get hot!
11/21 Card :
Tulane +11.5 +
South Carolina +3 +
BC/Davidson over 137 **Best Bet** +
UVA -3.5 (DK)
Clemson -3.5 +
Mississippi State -6.5 (Caesars) **Best Bet**
Nebraska -1.5 (Caesars)
+ Given yesterday on X
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Sorry friends. Busy morning. These 2H melts are driving me insane. Another night where we would’ve swept the board on the 1H lines. Another night where the losses were graded as wins on Shot Quality. That is the game we play though. It will swing our way. Hopefully, sooner rather than later. We were able to cash the Best Bet to end the night, thankfully. Alabama was super impressive in what was essentially a road game at the United Center. Felt good to get that one home. Let’s let that win propel us to a great night tonight!
Also, Charleston Classic day is tomorrow! Will have pre-game plays, live bets, player props, etc. going. Stay tuned for a big content day.
25/26 Season Record: 28-24
25/26 Best Bet Record: 9-6
11/20 Card :
Memphis +15.5 -118 (6:00pm – CBSSN) (DK)
Miami -21.5 (7:00pm – ACC Extra)(DK)
Queens -6.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+)(FD)
Oklahoma -24.5 (8:00pm – SECN+)(FD)
Texas Tech -7.5 (8:30pm – CBSSN) **Best Bet**+
Cal Poly +13 (9:00pm – ESPN+) (Caesars)
+ Given on X yesterday afternoon
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Memphis +15.5 : We are getting our night started in the Baha Mar ballroom. It feels dirty going against the Boilermakers who always do right by us, but this number is simply too inflated.
Shot Quality is projecting a crazy close matchup in this one. I am not going to go THAT far, but I do see this game ending in the 10-12 point range. There is significant value baked in here with the books knowing they can still get a heavy Purdue handle at the current number.
The ball pressure that the Memphis guards will be able to deploy on Purdue’s backcourt will be the difference maker in keeping this within the number. The Tigers come into today’s matchup ranked 36th in the country in defensive steal percentage. These are the type of rosters that Fletcher Loyer really struggles with. It intensifies the pressure on Braden Smith, and I think we will see another large helping of steals and runouts for the Tigers today.
I am also of the belief that the ballroom backdrop neutralizes the shooting gap in this matchup. We have seen a wide variety of scores here over the years, but there have definitely been more low scoring affairs than shootouts. This amount of points in a game I lean to the under on is too good to pass up. Give us the dog.
Score Prediction:Purdue 82 – Memphis 71
Miami -21.5 : We will always thank the 24/25 Phoenix for the early season gifts they gave us a year ago. We sniped a talented roster and took advantage with them for the better part of 2 months before the books caught on. Unfortunately, the portal & NIL ripped that team apart. I am not high on Billy Taylor’s roster this season. They still sit at a KenPom rank of 251st, but I expect that to slide back into the mid-300’s where he was in his first two seasons at Elon.
The ugliest wart on the Elon resume to this point is their defense. The Phoenix currently sit 343rd in KenPom adjusted defensive rating. They can’t look at Shot Quality to help them. They are 332nd there as well. This opens the door for Miami to win by margin tonight. The Canes have really impressed me on the offensive side of the court to start the year.
Shot Quality shows us that the hot start is justified from the looks they are getting. I would also not hate a look at the Miami team total tonight. It is going to be a fun one for the Canes.
Elon is also struggling in transition and from the 3 point line as you can see above. They simply will not be able to score enough to keep up here. I will lay the big number with the Canes.
Score Prediction: Miami 94 – Elon 67
Queens -6.5 : You could have told me any time in the past that Queens would never be laying 6.5 points against UNCG in the history of their program and I would have believed you. UNCG has been a phenomenal mid-major program for many, many years. The Spartans are usually a lock for Top 150 in KenPom. However, things have gotten ugly in Greensboro this season. This has been Mike Jones’ worst recruiting job in this time at UNCG and the losses will continue to pile up.
The advanced analytics show there is no “bad luck” to blame this horrible start to the season on. The Shot Quality regression analysis indicates that there is no reprieve for the struggles on the way, and the KenPom Scouting Report is as red as a fire truck. This team sucks ass. There isn’t much more that I am calculating into this play (well, I do love that Queens hit 16 threes last time out). Full fade of the Spartans.
Score Prediction: Queens 82 – UNCG 72
Oklahoma -24.5 : I love this spot for Oklahoma. The Sooners offense should have a field day tonight. This offense has one of the better SQ offensive profiles that I have come across this season:
Also, Nijel Pack is heating up. That might be an understatement. The super duper senior is 11/19 from the three point line in his last two contests. That is bad news for an Oral Roberts defense that can’t stop a nosebleed this season. The Golden Eagles are 334th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rating, and are 319th in 3PT % allowed. Bombs away for Pack and the Sooners.
Oral Roberts is a team we need to take advantage of in their current state. They have a philosophy of shooting a ton of threes (6th in the country in 3pt rate), but they are a dreadful shooting team. Oral Roberts is 329th in 3PT %. They aren’t just missing great looks. This team is taking horrible 3’s. The Golden Eagles are 321st in Assist/Field Goal Made. Shot Quality also rates them 333rd in their passing metric. Tons of ISO and pull-up threes.
The Sooners also have a MASSIVE edge in the interior. There will be second chance points galore. Oral Roberts is going to get blitzed tonight. We will lay the big number.
Score Prediction: Oklahoma 95 – Oral Roberts 65
Texas Tech -7.5 : We got an excellent number here yesterday afternoon. This is touching -10.5 almost across the board at this point. I was texting with my buddy Max Hofmeyer (@hoffy812 on X) after I locked in this play. We could not believe that this Red Raiders team was laying under double digits on a neutral court against Wake Forest. The market has agreed.
JT Toppin is the type of player that can will a team to a Final Four
Win or lose, he will be the best player on the floor in almost every game this season
JT Toppin has quickly kicked into his All-American gear after dealing with a knock to start the season. There is absolutely no answer for him on this Demon Deacon roster. We watched the Wake/Michigan game and the Deacs struggled mightily with Aday Mara. Toppin is a different type of player, but I do not think highly of Wake’s frontcourt on the defensive end. Wake Forest ranks 295th in 2pt % allowed on defense. That is a recipe for disaster with Toppin’s ability around the rim.
I expect Wake’s offense to struggle tonight. The do not have a strength that they can lean on when things get tough against a Grant McCasland defense. They are not a great shooting team, don’t finish well around the rim, and are not succeeding in transition (132nd in SQ Transition PP). I just cannot fathom how they are in this game tonight. I am laying the number with the Red Raiders with the upmost confidence. One of my favorite plays of the year to this point. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 78 – Wake Forest 63
Cal Poly +13 : I think this is a sneaky spot to take a chance with a dog to end our night. Poly is a ton of fun to watch. The Mustangs have risen all of the way to 2nd in KenPom adjusted tempo. They are also 20th nationally in points from three pointers. I think this offense can pack enough punch to keep us within the number here. The Utah defense is just non-existent to start the year despite their undefeated start. They are rated 144th defensively by KenPom, and Shot Quality has dropped them all of the way to 202nd in their adjusted rating. They’ve allowed everyone to score on them this year in a mid-major only schedule to this point. Poly will score enough to keep us within the number here.
Rough go over the last week. Even so, we are still hitting at a 55% clip overall and 57% on the Best Bets for the year. Still an elite level in the legit/non-phony gambling space. There will be ebbs and flows all year long. Long game, folks. Definitely want to be doing better on the Best Bets. We usually hit at a 59% clip. I will say that we are getting the shit end of the stick on late game luck though. THREE of our Best Bets have lost on the last shot of the game in the last week or so. If just one of those go the other way, then we are right where we should be & it is a different story. The luck will swing our way shortly. We will continue to grind until it does!
11/20 Write-up coming tomorrow!
11/19 Card :
USF +4.5 -105 (DK)
Creighton team total over 92.5 (Caesars)
Alabama +3.5 (FD) **Best Bet**
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