11/8 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Virginia Tech Athletics)

Damn, it feels good to be back! I’m ecstatic that we have been able to get off to a great start. 10-5 & 4-0 on Best Bets is a great way to get our season kicked off. If you are new here, welcome! There will be good nights & good weeks, but there will also be bad nights & bad weeks (hopefully a minuscule amount!). Please bet responsibly and within your means. No phony AI algorithms or “+50000 Unit BOMB WHALE PLAY”‘s here. I am just a regular guy that enjoys the college game and is skilled at wagering on it. I don’t post with units won because I am not trying to snail oil sales anyone. I am simply just trying to provide y’all with winners. I want you to wager your own money how you please. I personally 2u my Best Bets, but it is completely up to how you want your strategy to be.

The best part about winning is cashing our slips together. Keep interacting on X. It pumps me up!

25/26 Season Record: 10-5

25/26 Best Bet Record 4-0

11/8 Card :

  • Duke -34.5 (1:30pm – CW Network) +
  • Virginia Tech +2.5 (4:00pm – Peacock) (DK) **Best Bet**
  • Arkansas/Michigan State under 156.5 (7:00pm – Fox) (DK) 
  • UNLV -4.5 (9:00pm – MW Network) +
  • Oklahoma +11.5 (10:30pm – ESPN2) + 

+ Given on X last night

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Duke -34.5 : I was very excited to back the Blue Devils for several days now. I was hoping that the books would open this near the KenPom margin of 27. Unfortunately, Vegas was wise to it. I had a personal limit of 35 so this was still a play when it opened at 34.5. Duke has still taken a ton of money at this price. The spread is up to 37 and 37.5 at most places. It is justified.

The defensive ceiling of this Blue Devils team is Top 5 in the country. There were concerns if that end of the court would experience a drop off with the loss of Flagg and Maluach, but Cameron Boozer and Dame Sarr look like they are going to fill in those gaps perfectly. We saw Western Carolina on opening night when we cashed a Cincinnati ticket against them. That offense is putrid. The Catamounts scored 59 points and Shot Quality shows that was pretty spot on with a SQ score of 64. Western Carolina is now ranked 266th in KenPom and 324th on SQ for adjusted offense. I do not see a path to Western Carolina breaking the 60 point mark today.

Duke should get whatever the want on the offensive end today. Western Carolina allowed Cincinnati to go 13/17 on shots at the rim on opening night. They also put the Bearcats to the stripe 30 times. Cameron Boozer is going to have his breakout performance today. Guaranteed. It should also be a fantastic day for the Duke snipers. Cincinnati was able to make 10 threes against the Catamounts the other night, and Duke’s shooters lap Cincy’s in ability. If you want to look at Isaiah Evans made threes props, I wouldn’t be mad at ya!

This will get ugly. Quickly. I am confident laying the big number here.

Score Prediction: Duke 95 – Western Carolina 56

Virginia Tech +2.5 : I absolutely love that we are getting points here. This is my Best Bet.

I have mentioned my international scouting over the summer. We hit big with Murray State in the opener because we knew of Domon before anyone else. Neoklis Avdalas is definitely not under the radar, but he is going to introduce himself to the masses today.

It is going to sound corny, but this guy is the closest to Luka Doncic’s game that we have in the country right now. He is a 6’9 true facilitator that can score at an elite level. The points weren’t there in the opener (think that changes today), but he was able to record 9 assists (!!!) and only one turnover in his debut. Providence is going to struggle heavily on the defensive end today in my opinion. They allowed Holy Cross to score 79 points in the opener. SQ Score backed it up with a total of 77. The Friars do not have an answer for Avdalas.

I also love what Virginia Tech brings defensively this year. The tweet above mentions it, but Avdalas projects to be an elite defender in the college game as well. Also, Tobi Lawal is one of the most fun shot erasers that we have in the game. His athleticism is off of the charts. Amani Hansberry was another important add this offseason by Mike Young. He brings an interior toughness that the Hokies have needed for a few years now.

The coaching edge in this matchup is heavily in Mike Young’s favor. I am still not a believer in Kim English. I also don’t love his roster construction. They will undoubtedly be better than a season ago, but by how much? I have VT favored by 3.5 on a neutral, so getting 2.5 brings this to a Best Bet. Go Hokies.

Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 79 – Providence 75

Arkansas/Michigan State Under 156.5: I think this is going to be a war at the Breslin Center today. Pace is a reason for pause, but I believe the defenses will reign supreme and get us under the total here.

Michigan State returns an awesome frontcourt this year, but I worry about their guard play. This should be one of the worst three point shooting teams in the Big 10 this year in my estimation. The Arkansas guards really bought in to the defensive end of the court near the end of last season. That matters. Billy Richmond is a defender that has really impressed me. I think the points from the Michigan State backcourt could be hard to come by with the pressure defense the Hogs will impose. On the other end, I believe that Arkansas is going to have fits trying to get points in the paint. Nick Pringle’s offensive game is solely at the rim. Whether it is from offensive rebounds or dump-offs/lobs. That isn’t going to fly with Cooper, Kohler and Carr. These guys attack the glass and protect the rim at an elite level.

I love the defensive edges mentioned above. You worry about the pace that Arkansas will try to impose in this game, but I truly believe Izzo knows his back-court limitations and will drag this out into a halfcourt game as much as he can at home. Give me the under here.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 76 – Arkansas 75

UNLV -4.5 : I got chirped a bit for this play on Twitter last night, but look at the potential CLV we are gaining! This is up to -8 across the board at the books at the time of me writing this. Listen, I get it. The opening night loss to UT Martin was embarrassing. However, we back numbers here. Not teams.

This was a sneaky scheduling spot that I had my eye on this week. Chattanooga had to fly across the country to Moraga last night to get their ass kicked by Saint Mary’s. They were rewarded with a turnaround quick flight to Vegas to play another game today. Luckily, we got our play in before the ass kicking last night. I am just not a fan of the Mocs roster this season. The stalwarts of this team over the past few seasons have exited the program through graduation and the portal. I obviously will grade them even worse when coming off of a back-to-back & also playing a well rested squad.

There is talent on this UNLV team. I promise you. I am willing to overlook this opening night loss. The roster and coaching staff was completely overhauled. I believe there is enough talent there for a bounce back tonight at home against an inferior opponent on a B2B. We got a great number here. Let’s win.

Score Prediction: UNLV 79 – Chattanooga 70

Oklahoma +11.5 : I love backing Porter Moser getting this many points in a non-conference game. This number was posted here due to the KenPom projected score, but it is simply too many points.

Moser is a coach that always has his team in prime form to start the year. Over the last two seasons the Sooners have knocked off Iowa, USC, Providence x2, Arkansas, Arizona, Louisville, Michigan, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State etc. all before Christmas. The Kennel is a different animal and y’all know how I feel about the Zags this year, but I will take 11.5 with Moser in the non-con any day. Outside of the Moser angle, I also believe that OU has the interior length and toughness to not get overwhelmed by Gonzaga in the post. Wague and Davis can take the blows in the interior, and I love what we saw from Atak in the opener. This freshman is going to excel in pulling Huff and Ike out of the paint to stretch the floor for his own looks, but also for the OU guards and wings to slash the lane.

I am pretty much in agreeance here with the Shot Quality projected score. I just think there will be a little bit more scoring, but 7 is spot on with my prediction. Give us the points. Boomer Sooner.

Score Prediction: Gonzaga 85 – Oklahoma 78

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

25/26 Season Preview: Futures & More!

(photo: Jordan Prather – Imagn Images)

Fellas…. Once again…

Damn, it feels good to be back! The 24/25 season was better than anything we could have dreamed of. We hit at an amazing 55.4% clip. The fantastic season all culminated on the night of the national championship game where we had 15-1 and 60-1 national title futures squaring off in the championship game. Literally as good as it gets. I will never forget it!

This offseason went by in a blur. It has been pure elation basking in our 60-1 Florida win over the last several months. Today is when we put that to rest. A new season is upon us. Time to lock back in and grind!

The tip jar is below. Your generosity means the world.

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National Title Winners:

We are going with a four team portfolio again this year. “If it ain’t broke”. Our two title contenders are going to be Kentucky and Houston. Additionally, we are going to take prices on two teams that I believe are criminally mispriced in the market. Those will be Gonzaga & Virginia. The goal for the Gonzaga and Virginia plays will be to gain massive value on our tickets throughout the season and then look at hedging/cash out opportunities to make cash come tournament time (or just win the whole damn thing like Florida!). I will keep you posted later in the year when we get to that point.

Kentucky +1600 (Caesars):

Kentucky is my pick to win it all. Go Big Blue! (i just threw up in my mouth). This will be the longest write-up of the blog. Buckle up.

This is the deepest team in America. Don’t let anyone else tell you otherwise. When at full strength, this team can go 12 deep if they want to. Seriously. Kentucky is reminding me so much of my preseason thoughts of Florida a season ago. Equal amounts of front-court and back-court depth. An exceptional coach that is putting major emphasis on analytics. There are ingredients here to be the best team in the country by the end of the year.

I truly didn’t know where to begin with my thoughts on this team. There is so much to like. However, I need to put an early emphasis on the defensive potential that we have here with this group. The defensive shortcomings were ultimately the downfall for Pope’s Cats a season ago in his first year back in Lexington. The offense ranked Top 10 in KenPom, but the defense ranked just outside of the Top 50 at 51. Kentucky ranked dead last in the country at 364 in non-steal turnover percentage and were gashed 53.9% in 2pt FG percentage allowed. Gross. Mark Pope made damn sure to address this in the offseason. The portal additions of Mo Dioubate, Denzel Aberdeen, Kam Williams and Jayden Quaintance instantly provide the Cats with established elite defenders at their positions. A far cry from the turnstiles of Koby Brea and Andrew Carr. Sorry for the ricochets fellas. There is MASSIVE potential to get this side of the court in-line with their offensive firepower. I think it is a mistake to put a ton of stock into exhibition final score results. BUT, I do believe that you can pull from stretches in these game to give you a glimpse into a team’s potential. I was OVERLY impressed by the defense that this group (without Quaintance) displayed in their exhibition a few days ago against Purdue. The Boilermakers are the consensus #1 team across the board to start the season. There was a stretch in this game where Purdue’s starters went almost 7 minutes without scoring a FG against this Kentucky defense. The defensive pressure that the Cats were displaying was night and day from a season ago. KenPom is currently projecting Kentucky as the #4 defense in America. That might be a touch high for me, but I think that this is a Top 10 unit.

My bold prediction is that we will see Kentucky’s offense as the #1 KenPom unit by the end of the year. They currently sit 9th in the KenPom preseason projections, but this is my favorite offense in the country this year. The freshman class that we have in college basketball this year is the most loaded in recent memory in my opinion. A name that sliding under the radar at the moment (relative to the Dybansta’s, Boozer’s & Peterson’s of the world) is Jasper Johnson. This dude is an absolute bucket.

Adding this type of scorer/shooter to a back-court that consists of Otega Oweh and Jaland Lowe as downhill drivers/creators is such a great fit. Denzel Aberdeen, Kam Williams and Trent Noah will also provide sparks as outside shooters. This back-court is as well rounded as it gets.

I am also loving what we are seeing from the front-court newcomers.

Malachi Moreno will be another freshman to keep your eye on. The 7 footer is dominating around the rim in preseason practice/exhibitions and should be in-line for a big role while we wait on the return of Quiantance. Andrija Jelavic also brings a different punch to the offense as an international transfer. He is a very skilled 6’11 big that can pass and shoot the three ball at an elite level. Adding these two skilled bigs to the tough nosed Dioubate & Garrison tandem will be a great mixture. Last, but CERTAINLY not least.. we received some massive news earlier this month. It was already heavily implied, but we got a matter of fact statement from Mark Pope that Jayden Quaintance will be playing college basketball for the Cats this season.

He will be eased back into the rotation very cautiously when he returns in a month or two, but the reports are that he is getting extremely close to live ball action. Quaintance has a chance to make a leap to All-American level good when he is back to full strength this year. The potential of this team when he returns is off of the charts.

Ok, I will shut up for now. I didn’t even get a chance to gush over Otega Oweh and Jaland Lowe, but I am sure y’all are already very familiar with their game. I hope BBN welcomes this Gamecock to the wagon this year with open arms. I feel gross doing it, but we are here to win right?!

Houston +1000 (Caesars & FanDuel):

The Cougars were our pick to win it all in last year’s preseason blog. They made it all of the way to the title game and fell to our 60-1 Florida value ticket. It was a very bittersweet moment because you just felt so bad for Kelvin Sampson at the end of that game. I am not turning my back on this culture though. The floor of this team is INSANELY high. Betting this team to make the Elite 8 if that is offered where you place your wagers is probably just as safe as investing in an index fund (not a financial advisor).

The trio of Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and JoJo Tugler is as good as it gets in the country. Their talent and experience will keep the Cougars in the Top 10 for the duration of this upcoming season. The ceiling will hinder on the performances of Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr. These true freshman are extremely talented, but can they handle the weight of replacing Roberts and Cryer in this starting lineup? Time well tell. If both of these guys hit, then Houston can absolutely win the national championship. We know we are going to get another Top 5 defensive unit from Sampson. It is a yearly occurrence. With the floor as high as it is, I feel comfortable in investing at this team at 10-1.

Gonzaga +4500 (DK):

This number is just silly in my opinion. The Zags have disappointed in recent seasons and that is likely the reason why we are seeing this number where it is, but I actually like this roster construction much better than we have seen from those recent teams.

This team has experience. Lots of it.

The new look back-court is something that I can get excited about. I believe that Braeden Smith going to the Mark Few school of PG’s will bring a different animal out in him. He is ready for this role in my opinion. The Zags are also littered with very capable shooters. I am so ready for the return of Steele Venters!

The front-court remains loaded with the likes of Graham Ike and Braden Huff. I am also extremely excited about the sophomore jump for Ismaila Diagne. I wrote about him last offseason and was excited about his transition to the college game. He was blocked minutes wise with a stacked front-court rotation, but I think we will see much more of him this year.

The most important piece of this roster is Tyon Grant-Foster.

I am so happy for Tyon. He was being unfairly punished for dealing with a heart condition years back, and I am glad he is getting another crack at the college game. Especially now that we are just letting G Leaguers walk-in on the daily, but that is a rant for another day. Grant-Foster brings a real wing explosiveness that you rarely find in a Mark Few roster. I think he could be the X-Factor in gelling everything together for Gonzaga. The WCC will be down this year in my opinion. The oddsmakers have Gonzaga priced at -160 to win the conference. There is an excellent chance for a great seed entering the dance for Gonzaga if they pick off some of these early non-con matchups. I like investing at this value point.

Virginia +13000 (FanDuel):

I just simply cannot fathom how this Virginia team is 130-1. One hundred thirty to one. DraftKings is usually the sharpest when it comes to college basketball prices in my opinion, but FanDuel and Caesars have this priced at 80 and 90. You simply must place this at DK. KenPom is starting the Cavs out at 59th in the country. I could not disagree more. I see this as a Top 25 squad by season’s end.

Things got very sour in Charlottesville in recent years. Tony Bennett had no interest in participating in the portal recruiting/NIL era, and the Hoos paid the price for that. It eventually drove Bennett out of coaching and then we had to see the slop that was leftover for an entire season a year ago. UVA had to get the next coaching hire right. I believe they did just that in Ryan Odom. Odom has coached Utah State and VCU to Top 35 KenPom finishes in two out of the last three years. This man can win anywhere in the portal era. The Virginia collective was quick to back him immediately for this season, and boy did he spend the money wisely. I absolutely love this roster.

We have to start with the international flair. Odom has an all Euro front-court that I am absolutely drooling over.

I also love the veteran back-court that Odom is pairing with these guys. Malik Thomas is an alpha guard. Devin Tillis is a winner. Jacari White is a sniper. Sam Lewis is a scorer. Dallin Hall is a fighter. Four of these guys are seniors and one is a junior. How can you not love this mixture of attributes? This team is just flat out good.

Give me 130 to 1 here. We will be holding some tremendous value entering the dance with this one.

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Conference Title Tickets:

ACC: Louisville +230 (Fan Duel)

I absolutely love this roster. Snipers everywhere

The back-court is unbelievable and I believe that Pat Kelsey addressed key issues in the interior. I like this veteran group + Mikel to make a great run through the ACC conference schedule. +230 is good value here if you are of the belief that Duke might not be as fantastic as the masses are touting.

American: USF +300 (DK)

Brian Hodgson wins the American in his debut season. Calling my shot.

Big 10: Purdue +200 (Draft Kings)

The model of consistency in the regular season. Boiler Up.

Big 12: Houston +160 (Draft Kings)

I will continue to bet this until it loses.

Mountain West: San Diego State +120 (DK)

The MW is not as top heavy as we have seen in recent years where everyone could lose to the other top contenders on a given night. SDSU is the clear class of the league in my opinion. I am happy to get a + sign here.

SEC: Kentucky +400 (Fan Duel)

See above. Go Big Blue.

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Individual Awards:

Bob Cousy Award (Best PG): Braden Smith -120 (DK)

Do not overthink this. Especially if one of the freshmen take down the Wooden Award. Braden Smith is going to be handed another Bob Cousy as a lifetime achievement award. Smith has a very real chance to break the all-time assists record in a legit 4 years. This award is locked up before the season starts as long as he remains healthy for the full season.

Wayman Tisdale Award (Best Freshman): Darryn Peterson +290 (DK)

Darryn Peterson is the best freshman in the country. He is also in the best scenario to put up the gaudiest numbers of the bunch due to his situation. His usage is going to be through the roof in the Jayhawks offense. I love this value.

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Notable Coaching Changes:

This will be a good refresher to get your minds right before next week. Below is a list of notable newly sitting head coaches:

Auburn: Steven Pearl

Colorado State: Ali Farokhmanesh

Drake: Eric Henderson

Florida State: Luke Loucks

High Point: Flynn Clayman (Alan Huss moved to be coach in waiting at Creighton)

Indiana: Darian DeVries

Iowa: Ben McCollum

Maryland: Buzz Williams

Miami: Jai Lucas

Minnesota: Niko Medved

NC State: Will Wade

New Mexico: Eric Olen

USF: Brian Hodgson

Texas A&M: Bucky McMillan

Texas: Sean Miller

UNLV: Josh Pastner

Utah: Alex Jensen

VCU: Phil Martelli Jr.

Villanova: Kevin Willard

Virginia: Ryan Odom

West Virginia: Ross Hodge

Xavier: Richard Pitino

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A big thank you if you have made it this far! This preview took some time and I hope you enjoy it. The season kicks off next Monday with the Field of 68 Opening Day Marathon starting at 8am. LFG!

If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!

4/7 Three Ball – Legacy Day

(photo: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images)

24/25 Season Record: 306-246

2025 NCAA Tournament: 28-24 (11-4 Best Bet)

We have had a monster five year run since starting this twitter account/blog. Today might be my favorite moment of it all.

24/25 Season Preview: Futures & More!

We are carrying two preseason futures into the national championship game. 60-1 and 15-1. It still has not really set in since Saturday night. It doesn’t feel real. Like, holy shit guys. We are adding another banner. ’25 is going up in the rafters with ’23.

There won’t be an official play today for obvious reasons (will still have some pizza thooooo – scroll down). That concludes our season at 306-246 (55.43%). We also enjoyed an awesome tournament (without including the futures) after going 11-4 on Best Bets! I appreciate each and every one of you and can’t wait to run it back again next season. But enough of that for now. We can get sentimental in the season recap blog. Let’s get fat on some fucking pizza tonight.

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4/7 Card :

We get to sit back and relax and cash a 60-1 or 15-1 ticket in the national title game. As good as it gets, gentlemen. I am so happy that one of these teams gets to cut down the nets. I have fallen in love with both of them throughout the year. We could not ask for a better title game. I obviously will not be playing a side in this game, but if you missed out on grabbing futures on these teams .. my lean would be to Florida. I just don’t think Walter Clayton Jr. will be denied in this form. I would also expect the analytic-driven Florida staff to dive deep into that Duke/Houston tape to find ways to get open kick-out threes and back-cut layups/dunks from the sets Scheyer was running for Flagg. Maybe Houston doesn’t sell out as hard on drives from Thomas Haugh, but I could see him finding success over the top finding teammates with his athleticism and passing abilities. I also think that the Florida staff really showed how elite they were in the 2H the other night. Those halftime adjustments completely stifled Auburn after it seemed like the game was getting away from Florida. Houston’s late game magic was fucking awesome, but we actually saw the Duke lead extend in a big way after halftime. A fair share of that late game magic was aided by Duke shitting themselves. I think you have to give a slight edge to the Gators staff in a game where 2H adjustments could decide the winner. With all of that said, I would not be shocked in the slightest if Houston wins. Both of these teams would be worthy champions. Let’s enjoy our final night in San Antonio.

Score Prediction: Florida 74 – Houston 70

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4/7 – Race to 10’s (15-13 ; up 2.09 pizzas)

Florida -115 (DK) – My #1 rated offense all year long gets it done again for us out of the gate.

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4/7 – More Pizza!

First Point Scorer: Will Richard (+750) (DK)

Florida First Basket Made: 3Pter (+150) (DK) – Cashed this against Auburn. They are on to us! Dropped our price from +190. Still like it again. Will Richard please!

Houston First FG Attempt: Missed 3pter (+250) (DK) – Cryer misses a three to get the game started for Houston.

Will Richard (Florida) over 11.5 points (+100) (DK) – It is Will Richard’s time to step up. Houston will focus a lot of attention on Clayton, and due to that Richard will see several open three opportunities. I expect him to knock them down.

Thomas Haugh (Florida) over 2.5 assists (+105) (DK) : Spoke about it above. I think Haugh has a great chance to be a facilitator today.

J’Wan Roberts over 11.5 points (-110) (DK) : J’Wan can find some success with his back-to-the-basket post game tonight. I expect to see him be a focal point in his final collegiate game.

Player Prop Parlay +105 (DK): Alex Condon (Florida) over 5.5 points + Milos Uzan (Houston) over 9.5 points + Will Richard (Florida) over 7.5 points

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If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!

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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

4/5 Three Ball Write-Up – Final Four!

(photo: Houston Chronicle)

24/25 Season Record: 305-245

2025 NCAA Tournament: 27-23 (10-4 Best Bet)

We have finally made it to San Antonio, gents! What a year it has been. We have eclipsed the 55% mark for the season once again. Hard work pays off. This great season is also culminating with two of our four preseason futures making it to the Final Four! We have advanced our preseason 60-1 Florida and 15-1 Houston tickets to this point. A lot of you are asking if I am planning on hedging entering this round. I am not. Auburn and Duke are worthy and formidable opponents, but I feel confident that we will see a minimum of one of our teams in the title game on Monday night. If I am wrong, I can live with it. The dream scenario of having both tickets in the championship game is still on the table. I am not passing that up. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s get into Saturday’s card (some additional pizza)!

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4/5 Card :

Florida/Auburn 1H under 76 -115 (Caesars) (6:09pm – CBS)

I think that we a see a surprisingly sleepy start in a game with such offensive firepower. Auburn is the key to this play in my opinion. Their shooting has just been off recently. The Tigers are getting their points by paint touches and getting to the free throw line. They have shot 36.8%, 28.6%, and 28% from three in their last three games. This Florida team is fantastic at guarding the three point line. The Gators are 6th in the country in opponent three point percentage. The Alamodome sightlines are also not going to do the Tigers any favors to find their form. Plenty of factors to account for predicting a sleepy Auburn offensive start.

Auburn was also really locked in on the defensive end in the Atlanta regional final rounds. Their #8 rated KenPom defense showed it’s teeth early in those matchups and held Michigan to 29 points & Michigan State to 24 points in the 1H. Dylan Cardwell has been an absolute brick wall.

Auburn’s recent poor shooting and early game defensive abilities lead me to believe that we can slide under 76 for the 1H. Sorry for not having fun. We can do that in the 2H.

Score Prediction: 1H Florida 37 – Auburn 35

Houston +5.5 -114 (FD) (8:49pm – CBS) **Best Bet**

I am siding with Vegas here. This spread is so bloated. In no world should this Houston team be 5.5 point dogs on a neutral to Duke. KenPom has this as a 2 point Duke win, BartTorvik has Houston slightly favored, yet we are seeing Duke getting nearly 70% of the bets at -5.5. A public peach. VegasInsider is reporting Duke is getting 69% of the bets, but only 53% of the money. You know the drill. I genuinely believe that Houston will be able to force their tempo in this game. Duke already has a slow average tempo per KenPom (269th), and they have been a pace chameleon due to their ability to execute in both the half court and in transition. In a game with fewer possessions, these 5 and a half points grow larger in importance. Listen, Duke doesn’t have many weaknesses. If we have to nitpick they are really struggling allowing offensive rebounds this tournament. They have gotten outrebounded on the offensive glass by Baylor, Arizona and Alabama. A total of 40 offensive rebounds grabbed by those three teams. Giving Houston second chance points is a recipe for disaster given their newly found efficient three point shooting this year. I am also just siding with the clear cut #1 defense on both KenPom AND ShotQuality in a game that should be very physical. JoJo Tugler just won the Lefty Driesell – National Defensive Player of the Year award and Cooper Flagg should see a lot of him.

The last time Duke was in a war with a defensive minded team they lost at Clemson. I think Houston has the recipe to pull off the upset here. I will gladly take the points. I expect this one to be a classic. Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Duke 69 – Houston 68

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4/5 – Race to 10’s (15-12 ; up 3.09 pizzas)

Houston +115 (DK) – Houston’s physicality is going to be a wake up call early in this game in my opinion.

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4/5 – More Pizza!

Florida First Basket Made: 3Pter (+190) (DK) – Walter Clayton Jr. does it again!

Duke First FG Attempt: Missed 2pter (+190) (DK) – See Race to 10

Alex Condon (Florida) over 10.5 points (-120) (DK) : Was the best player on the court in the previous matchup. Excelled against a gamble heavy Auburn defense on drives from the Florida guards. I expect another big game.

Kon Knueppel (Duke) over 2.5 assists (-140) (DK) : Knueppel is a phenomenal passer. Assists are hard to come by against a Houston defense, but we will still see a Maluach lob or two to boost our total. I like our chances to get to at least 3 here.

Player Prop Parlay +105 (DK): Alex Condon (Florida) over 7.5 points + Milos Uzan (Houston) over 7.5 points + Sion James (Duke) over 5.5 points

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If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!

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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

3/30 Three Ball Card

(photo: AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

24/25 Season Record: 303-243

2025 NCAA Tournament: 25-21 (9-4 Best Bet)

A tough 1-2 day yesterday. Sucks. Time to bounce back though! No time for a write-up today. Sorry friends. The card + pizza plays are listed below. Let’s get our preseason 15-1 Houston ticket to San Antonio. I am still dreaming about a Florida and Houston final…

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3/30 Card :

Tennessee 1H +1.5 (Caesars) (2:20pm – CBS)

Tennessee/Houston under 126.5 (DK) (2:20pm – CBS)

Auburn 1H -2.5 (FD) (5:05pm – CBS) **Best Bet**

Michigan State/Auburn over 147 (Caesars) (5:05pm – CBS)

Coen Carr over 5.5 points x Miles Kelly over 9.5 points (+100 at DK) (5:05pm – CBS)  

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3/30 – Race to 10’s (14-11 ; up 3.09 pizzas)

Tennessee +100 (DK)

Auburn -135 (FD)

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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

3/29 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)

24/25 Season Record: 302-241

2025 NCAA Tournament: 24-19 (9-3 Best Bet)

BOOM!!! A scorching hot 8-2 (2-0 Best Bet) performance in the Sweet 16 has me buzzing for this Elite 8 action! We are also up 5.64 units on the Race to 10 pizza plays. Let’s keep this shit rolling! My card for today’s Elite 8 slate is listed below. I have included our Race to 10 pizza plays below as well. Make sure to scroll down!

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3/29 Card (+ given on Thursday):

Florida -6.5 **Best Bet** (DK) (6:09pm – TBS)  +

I could not have jumped on this number faster on Thursday night. Chance McMillian is a MAJOR loss to this Texas Tech rotation. Especially when you have to keep up with backcourt scoring of the likes of Arkansas and Florida. TTU was able to get away with his absence against Drake by spamming Toppin and Williams in the paint, but the Red Raiders were severely stuck in the mud when going against a team with the length of Arkansas. Florida’s defensive prowess is even more daunting. I know Christian Anderson made shots late, but a lot of the reason why Texas Tech is here today is more to due with Arkansas shitting themselves in my opinion. As of writing this article, I do not see any reports that McMillian is a confirmed go today. I would not be surprised if he tries to play, but I made this game 10 full points due to the absence or limitation of McMillian.

It will be interesting to see the minutes split of Florida’s frontcourt today. Condon will be active and all signs point to him not having limitations today from the ankle roll a few days ago. That is huge. I also think that Thomas Haugh has a very solid chance to lead that group in minutes again tonight. I think he is a perfect weapon to deploy against Darrion Williams. He was really able to frustrate Julian Reese and I think we see more of the same today. His lateral quickness and athleticism defensively is going to give Williams fits on the offensive end. I also think he will find success offensively with his constant movement.

Texas Tech ranks 242nd in shot selection per ShotQuality (promo code: SNIPER25). We saw that in live action against the Razorbacks last time out. I think it finally puts the nail in their coffin today. Florida will get theirs no matter how good you are defensively. Let’s lay it here and get our Gators to the Final Four. Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Florida 84 – Texas Tech 73

Alabama/Duke over 174 points (Ceasars) (8:49pm – TBS) +

I did not get the best number here due to crashing out over Calipari almost blowing our Best Bet, but I am still confident in what we have. These rims at the Prudential Center are lubed up and unscrewed to say the least. We saw 394 points (!!!) in the two games played at this arena in the Sweet 16. These rims carried Alabama to the all=time NCAA Tournament record for threes made in a game with damn near 8 minutes still left on the clock. With both of these offenses humming at full potential and forgiving rims, I am definitely going to be on the over.

I lean Duke on the spread as well. They are going to carve this Alabama defense. We saw a quiet Proctor performance from the game flow the other night, but don’t forget just how hot this man is from three at the moment.

The Blue Devils are going to be able to compete from the three point line. Alabama ranks 340th in allowing opponents high quality threes per ShotQuality. Proctor, Knueppel, Flagg, etc will be able to take advantage. That is the major edge in this matchup because Duke is flat out better in every other facet. Cooper Flagg’s excellence is continuing to grow game by game and that is mind blowing after the year he has already had. There is not a defender on the Tide that can check him. Alabama’s shot making in this arena is what has pushed me to the over as opposed to laying it with the Blue Devils though. I would not be surprised to see Alabama take an early lead and then just see the Duke train roll. Anyways, Let’s score some points.

Score Prediction: Duke 94 – Alabama 85

Player Prop Parlay: ALT Lines – Tyrese Proctor over 9.5 points x Chris Youngblood over 9.5 points (+100 at Caesars)

Back by popular demand from the success yesterday. Let’s hit another one! There will be plenty of points to go around in this game. I love the way both of these guys are shooting the three. I love the way that the Prudential Center rims are accepting the threes. Let’s make some threes.

Score Prediction: Proctor 15 points, Youngblood 13 points

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3/29 – Race to 10’s (14-9 ; up 5.64 pizzas)

Florida -155 (Caesars)

Alabama +130 (Caesars)

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3/28 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

24/25 Season Record: 297-240

2025 NCAA Tournament: 19-18 (8-3 Best Bet)

My card for today’s Sweet 16 action is listed below. I have included our Race to 10 pizza plays below as well. Make sure to scroll down. I added a Race to 10 and an official play for the card in this write-up. Let’s snipe!

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3/28 Card (+ given on Tuesday):

Ole Miss 1H +2 (Caesars) (7:09pm – CBS) +

The Rebels have eclipsed the 40 point mark in the 1H in three out of their last four games. Those performances came against Iowa State, UNC, and Arkansas. Michigan State has started pretty slow in their last three games. They trailed New Mexico and Wisconsin at the break, and seesawed back and forth with Bryant in the 1H of that game before taking a small lead into the half. I am attacking this postseason trend from both of these teams out of the gate in this one. Ole Miss has the recent jump shooting to keep them competitive to start this game. I do think Michigan State likely wears them down in the interior and wins a close one in the 2H, so Sparty may be a live opportunity for us at the half. Will keep y’all posted.

Score Prediction: 1H Ole Miss 36 – Michigan State 34

Tennessee -4.5 & under 145.5 (FD) (7:39pm – TBS/TruTV) +

KenPom has this game as a 147 point total prediction. We usually don’t see totals dive well below those projections (144.5 now), so that should always grab your attention. A lot of this action is likely due to the venue. This game is being played in one half of Lucas Oil Stadium. Hopefully it doesn’t look as fucking silly on TV as it does on the internet. The shooting backdrops in football stadiums have been famous for cashing unders over the years. That is nice to have in our back pocket, but that is not my angle here. It’s all about the pace baby.

I am predicting that Tennessee gains a stranglehold on the pace today. The first two meetings of the season ended on 151 and 139 points. Tennessee was able to control the pace in the previous meetings this season, but ultimately lost both games by allowing UK to make 12 threes in both games (while shooting 50% from the field in both as well). The Vols come into tonight’s game with the 346th rated adjusted tempo in KenPom. They are able to dictate the pace against the high flying Cats because of Kentucky’s inability to speed them up/turn them over. Kentucky is 364th (dead last) in the country in non-steal percentage on defense. They just are not set-up defensively to cause unforced errors against quality opponents. The Cats are also 337th overall in turning over their opponents. Kentucky’s inability to turn Tennessee over kept them out of transition and limited the pace in the previous meetings. I think we see more of the same tonight. I am also predicting that Tennessee’s 3rd rated KenPom defense comes to play in a big way today and does not allow Kentucky to reach the 12 made three pointer plateau again. Kentucky will also not sniff 50% from the field for a third time (especially in a football stadium). I feel comfortable laying the points AND taking the under here. The Vols get their revenge.

Score Prediction: Tennessee 74 – Kentucky 67

Auburn 1H -4.5 and -8.5 full game (FD) (9:39pm – CBS) **Best Bet is Auburn -8.5** +

The Michigan luck runs out here. The Auburn spread is touching 9.5 at some places and this is totally justified. This Auburn team is a horrible matchup for Michigan.

These warts on Michigan’s ShotQuality profile above (promo code: SNIPER25) are areas that elite teams will punish you in a win or go home scenario. Auburn is licking their chops to attack in these areas.

As you can see above, Auburn has the profile to completely dismantle Michigan’s flaws. They protect the ball .. can kill Michigan in transition when they cough it up .. will make their open threes.. etc ,etc, etc. Auburn also has the interior depth and athleticism to limit the high-low success that the Wolverines get from the Wolf and Goldin partnership. This is an 8 point game on KenPom and I think that is generous considering the site. This game is being played in Atlanta and early reports are showing that it will be a mini-Jungle in State Farm Arena. Auburn has a MASSIVE alumni/fanbase in the Atlanta area and these tickets sold quickly. This crowd will carry the patented Auburn runs. I like Auburn to jump out to a big lead quickly and never look back. Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Auburn 85 – Michigan 70 (1H: Auburn 44 – Michigan 30)

Milos Uzan over 9.5 pts x J’Wan Roberts over 4.5 reb x Houston ML —- Parlay (Available @ DK at +102) (10:09pm – TBS/TruTV)

A little parlay to finish our night. This is the first one we have given all year long, but I was toying around with some things after being in a stalemate with the spread and total and concocted this bad boy. I am pumped about it!

Milos Uzan has reached the double digit plateau in 16 out of his last 19 games for the Cougars. Including 6 games in a row before his 7 point outing last time out against Gonzaga. Uzan is a guard with exceptional athleticism driving the basketball and that has given the Purdue backcourt of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer fits over the years. Uzan shoots it 43.7% from three and 77.6% from the free throw line. I like our chances to touch double digits here.

J’Wan Roberts grabbing 5 rebounds is something that I am very confident in tonight. He reached this plateau 6 times in a row before picking up that injury during the Big 12 Tournament. He is now seemingly healthy and grabbed 8 boards last time out against a stout Gonzaga frontline. Purdue’s interior depth is very minimal and their middle of the D1 road rebounding statistics back that up. Playing against Houston’s frontline after facing High Point and McNeese is going to be a shock to the system for the Boilers. I like Roberts to crash the glass, impose his physicality, and get at least 5 tonight.

Houston wins this game tonight. I do not see any chance for an upset. Throwing their ML in this parlay gets us to plus money. Let’s party tonight!

Score Prediction: Uzan 13+ points, Roberts 7+ rebounds, Houston wins by 7-12

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3/28 – Race to 10’s (11-9 ; up 2.64 pizzas)

Ole Miss +100 (DK) +

Auburn -170 (DK) – We are laying the pizza sauce for this blowout

Tennessee -130 (DK) +

+ given on Tuesday

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If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!

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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

3/27-28 Three Ball – Sweet 16 – Plus More!

(photo: Getty Images)

24/25 Season Record: 294-239

2025 NCAA Tournament: 16-17 (7-3 Best Bet)

My card for the Sweet 16 is listed below. There maybe will be an add or two on Thursday. I will also have a write-up posted on Thursday AM. Let’s get hot! (scroll for the pizza plays!)

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3/27 Card:

BYU +5.5 (Caesars) (7:09pm – CBS)

Florida -6.5 -115 (DK) (7:39pm – TBS/TruTV)

Arizona +9.5 (MGM) (9:39pm – CBS) 

Arkansas +5.5 (DK) (10:09pm – TBS/TruTV) **Best Bet**

3/28 Card:

Ole Miss 1H +2 (Caesars) (7:09pm – CBS)

Tennessee -4.5 & under 145.5 (FD) (7:39pm – TBS/TruTV)

Auburn 1H -4.5 and -8.5 full game (FD) (9:39pm – CBS) **Best Bet is Auburn -8.5**

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3/27-28 Race to 10’s (10-9 ; up 1.49 pizzas)

Arkansas +115 (DK)

Ole Miss +100 (DK)

Tennessee -130 (DK)

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If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!

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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!