2/26 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: X / @umterps)

24/25 Season Record: 226-181

2/26 Card :

  • UConn -12.5 (6:30pm – FS1) +
  • Maryland -3.5 (6:30pm – BTN) + **Best Bet**
  • Auburn -12.5 (7:00pm – ESPN2) +
  • Furman -15.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) + **Best Bet**
  • Penn State/Indiana over 149.5 (8:30pm – BTN) (DK)

+ given last night on X

If you would like to leave a thank you from the recent hot streak, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!

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UConn -12.5 : KenPom has this game as an 8 point spread. The opener was always going to be a tick high due to the spot, but then we also received this news yesterday..

I gladly jumped at the opener of 12.5 last night after digesting this news. On the surface, it appears that UConn won a semi-close game back in January at Georgetown. A 68-60 final. However, that scoreline is very misleading. The Huskies were up 23 with 8 minutes to go & it was one of those games where UConn didn’t score for the final 3 or 4 minutes & Georgetown was able to garbage it up to make it look respectable. Thomas Sorber was a real factor in that game (as he always is). He was able to grab 5 of team’s 11 offensive rebounds and record 4 of the team’s 6 blocks. His absence is going to be greatly missed in this one. Especially on the offensive end against a foul happy Tarris Reed Jr and Samson Johnson. UConn continues to rank near the bottom of the country in free throw rate allowed. This appears to be a good matchup though. Georgetown is 354th in free throw rate & Sorber had 105 of the team’s 411 attempts on the season.

I love the spot & I love the matchup against the Hoyas without Sorber. Happy to lay the big number here.

Score Prediction: UConn 78 – Georgetown 61

Maryland -3.5 : College Park is going to be an inferno. This will be B1G home court at it’s finest. That is definitely a big player in my handicap tonight.

The Terps are going to have a massive advantage from behind the arc. The Spartans come into this game 335th in 3point rate and 349th in 3point make percentage. Maryland ranks 30th in the country in 3point make percentage. ShotQuality shows that this isn’t fluky. The Terps are 26th and 29th in Off of the Dribble and Catch & Shoot 3PT SQ PPP. Maryland is averaging 9 three pointers made per game at the Xfinity Center, and I think they touch double digits tonight.

Maryland also has in the answer in the post that most do not against the deep Michigan State frontline. Derik Queen and Julian Reese are arguably the best frontcourt tandem in the country (I can already hear the Vlad and Danny truthers coming at me – I said arguably!). They are both averaging over 9 rebounds per game on the season and I believe they will be able to score & board enough to let the 3 point barrage take over.

Rodney Rice has taken his scoring to the next level after this moment in Bloomington.

https://twitter.com/CBKReport/status/1883592530195021827

His shot making is adding a completely different dimension to this Maryland team. I think they are one of the best starting 5’s in the country with Rice in this form. I will lay the short number tonight as a Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Maryland 82 – Michigan State 72

Auburn -12.5 : Welcome to the Jungle baby!

I fear for the profile of the Rebels traveling on the road to Neville tonight.

Some of the warts on their ShotQuality resume (promo code: SNIPER25) are listed above. That is not going to get it done on the road at Neville. The low frequency attacking the rim is one of most concern for me. If you take a look at KenPom, Ole Miss is only 145th in the country in effective field goal %. The Auburn defense ranks 9th. The Tigers offense continues to chart out on KenPom and ShotQuality on a historic level. I just don’t see any way Ole Miss keeps up tonight. It’s been a few weeks since Auburn has delivered a real beat down. I smell one coming tonight. Lay it.

Score Prediction: Auburn 87 – Ole Miss 69

Furman -15.5 : A good ole fashioned Senior Night ass kicking coming your way from upstate South Carolina! Bob Richey continues to have one of the better mid-major programs in the country. The Paladins have eclipsed the 20 win mark for the 6th time in his 8 years at the helm. The Citadel has fallen all the way to 354th in KenPom. This is going to be a bludgeoning.

The Citadel offense will not be able to keep up in this one. The Bulldogs have been playing teams tough recently, but their analytics are going to catchup in a big way tonight. The Citadel ranks 352nd in the Shot Quality adjusted offensive rating. SQ also shows that they are due for regression on their measly 0.97 PPP on the season to 0.95. Furman sits at 1.09 PPP on the season and Shot Quality shows that they should be even better at 1.10.

This will likely turn into a three point contest and The Citadel will lose that battle. The Bulldogs continue to be at 49th in the country in 3PT rate while being 344th in the country in 3PT %. Maybe try adapting to your personnel?! Furman ranks 4th in the country at 3PT rate and makes them at a 34.2% clip. This is going to be an ass kicking. Not overthinking it. Laying the big number for my 2nd Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Furman 84 – Citadel 60

Penn State/Indiana over 149.5 : Both of these teams seem a bit rejuvenated after a brutal middle stretch of conference season. I think that lends itself to an inspired performance on the offensive end from both sides tonight.

These teams met on January 5th at The Palestra and scored a total of 148 points. They were able to reach this total even with Penn State going through a 9ish minute drought of scoring only 2 points. The pace and FT attempts from the previous matchup are similar to my thinking for tonight’s game. Penn State continues to be one of the faster paced teams in the country. Ace Baldwin gets this team out and running and they are 44th in tempo per KenPom. Indiana has been a pace chameleon this year, but that has mostly been dictated by their opponents. I think that happens again tonight and we get a higher scoring game. I will take the over.

Score Prediction: Indiana 79 – Penn State 74

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

2/18 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: MSN)

24/25 Season Record: 211-175

2/18 Card :

  • Oklahoma +14 (7:00pm – ESPN2) (Caesars)
  • Purdue +3.5 (7:00pm – Peacock) (DK) **Best Bet**
  • Mississippi State -2.5 (7:00pm – SECN) (DK) **Best Bet**
  • Illinois +4.5 (8:30pm – FS1) (MGM)
  • Nevada +4 (9:00pm – MWN) (Caesars)

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Oklahoma +14 : The Sooners are a good basketball team. The SEC gauntlet has plummeted Oklahoma down to a 3-9 conference record, but I still have major trust in this team analytically. Especially on offense. Check out some of their fantastic rankings courtesy of ShotQuality (use promo code: SNIPER25 .. for a discount on your first purchase)

This profile should keep the Sooners around long enough to cover this big spread. I believe in that because I have a good feeling that the Sooners are going to be able to neutralize some of the Florida 3PT attack that the Gators have been bludgeoning opponents with. Not only does Oklahoma shoot it well from 3, they can also defend it. The Sooners rank 11th in the country in opponent three point percentage per KenPom. They are also Top 60 in both offensive and defensive Rim & 3 ShotQuality PPP. I expect our Gators to more than likely win this game with ease at the end, but don’t be surprised if Oklahoma hangs around for a while.

Score Prediction: Florida 84 – Oklahoma 74

Purdue +3.5 : Buy low time on the Boilers. Purdue is coming off of 2 straight losses & traveling to East Lansing against a Sparty team that just punked Illinois in primetime on Saturday night. Yet, we only see a 3.5 spread. You know the drill.

Braden Smith is undefeated against the Spartans in his career. That’s not changing tonight.

Braden has been one of the better guards in the pick & roll that I have ever seen in the college game. That is not an exaggeration. It is mesmerizing to watch. I think that Michigan State could have a ton of trouble with this tonight. From my eye test, they have struggled a bit in these scenarios and apply drop coverages quite often. That is not a recipe for success against Braden. I did some digging & ShotQuality confirmed my inclinations.

With this matchup advantage, I am going to take the Boilermakers with the points tonight. I think this will be a tight game down the stretch and I will gladly take a full possession cushion. I think Purdue squeaks out a close on on the road. This is a Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Purdue 76 – Michigan State 72

Mississippi State -2.5 : The Bulldogs will finally win a game at the Hump. I repeat .. The Bulldogs will finally win a game at the Hump. Mississippi State has dropped three in a row at home. That losing streak ends tonight.

Texas A&M is a very fun team to follow and pull for. They always give their all and the games tend to get hectic & exciting. I do worry about their Shot Quality profile a tad though for a long term success perspective. For starters, ShotQuality shows that Texas A&M is receiving a bit of luck on the defensive end. They are allowing 0.98 PPP and SQ expects that to be closer to 1.07. That is some serious regression that could be heading their way shortly. Also, take a look at these dreadful ranks on SQ:

  • 348th in Transition Efficiency
  • 358th in Defense Against Shots Attacking the Rim
  • 347th in Three Point Efficiency
  • 354th in Three Point Rate Allowed

The Aggies are getting away with all of this by offensive rebounding (1st in the country), turning over their opponents, and getting to the line. Mississippi State will be able to hold their own in these departments tonight I believe. The Bulldogs are one of my analytical darlings that I always speak of. This team is 19th in SQ adjusted offensive rating, and 7th defensively. They are also Top 40 in offensive rebounding, not turning the ball over, and shots attacking the rim. Key areas as we saw above that lends me to believe they can win this game tonight. I think the regression monster comes out to play on A&M defensively. Mississippi State wins a big one. This is a Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Mississippi State 76 – Texas A&M 69

Illinois +4.5 : The Illinois flatline from Saturday night isn’t going to scare me away today. ShotQuality graded that out as a win for the Illini. A large helping of fluky results from the looks they got over those final 7 minutes spiraled that game away. My judgement of this team has not changed at all.

This is one of the tougher matchups in the Big 10 for John Tonje in my opinion. I would expect him to draw a matchup with Will Riley for the majority of this game. Riley is flying under the radar due to the exceptional freshmen class we have in the game, but this dude needs more shine.

https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/1889735722690551930

Tonje was only 5-15 from the field in the first meeting against the Illini this season. Riley wasn’t getting as much run as he is now, so I think adding more of him to the defensive mix could cause Tonje additional problems. I also think that Kasparas Jakucionis is unguardable with the defenders that Wisconsin has at their disposal. He went for 24 in the first meeting, and I think we see more of the same today. This is one of those rare scenarios in a conference season where I am sure that a team of “equal quality” has a matchup edge and will run a double on a conference opponent. Not overthinking it here. Give me the points with the Illini. I think they win a close one.

Score Prediction: Illinois 82 – Wisconsin 80

Nevada +4 : The Wolfpack are going to own the glass in this matchup. Nevada is 5th in the country in average height of their rotation per KenPom, and Colorado State is 197th. The Rams are only 266th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Nevada comes in at 31st in defensive rebounding. With the perceived minimal opportunity for second chance points for Colorado State, I think Nevada can hang tight in this one.

Nevada has had a really disappointing season. Many were thinking this team had a chance for an at-large bid in the preseason. I do think they have potentially turned a corner though. The competition has been weak, but Nevada is on a 4 game win streak. The last three have been in blowout fashion. Is this team finally reaching it’s potential?! I think it is certainly possible. The field goal percentage on offense is through the roof, and the clamps are finally coming down again defensively. Give me the points tonight in game that I think will come down to the wire.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 69 – Nevada 67

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

2/11 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Craig Strobeck – Imagn Images)

24/25 Season Record: 197-166

2/11 Card :

  • Auburn/Vanderbilt under 157.5 (7:00pm – SECN) (DK)
  • BYU +2 (7:00pm – CBSSN) +
  • UConn +4.5 (9:00pm – CBSSN) (DK) ***Best Bet***
  • Pitt +5 (9:00pm – ACCN) +
  • Oregon -8.5 (11:00pm – BTN) + ***Best Bet***

+ Given on X last night

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Auburn/Vanderbilt under 157.5 : What a season it has been for our Commodores. There has been no let off since our Charleston Classic love affair. I think it has been understated just how awesome they have been on the defensive end of the court.

Yes, the Vanderbilt Commodores are the 3rd best defense in the country per Shot Quality’s adjusted rating. This unit is going to help keep us under the total tonight. Here are a few key areas from their SQ profile that I think can slow down Auburn from reaching the 90’s:

Defense Against 3PT Shooting: 4th

SQ PPP Allowed in Iso: 5th

Rim & 3 SQ PPP Allowed: 7th

Vanderbilt is also 17th in the country in turnover rate on offense. There are 4 point guards in this rotation. That will help keep Auburn out of their transition game. This under is going to Anchor Down.

Score Prediction: Auburn 80 – Vanderbilt 72

BYU +2 : This BYU team continues to be an analytical darling of mine. I did pick against them over the weekend, but it was against Cincinnati who I also strongly believe in analytically (they are finally turning it around!). I will gladly take the 2 points on the road here tonight against a Mountaineer team that is continuing to fall back to their baseline.

The Cougars offense is LEGIT. They are ranked 17th in KenPom & 18th in ShotQuality. The defense has caused some of their issues lately, but a SQ deep dive shows it is a bit of bad shot making luck from their opponents. BYU is still ranked 10th in the country in the adjusted defensive rating. When you have a team that is Top 20 in both units on SQ, you need to pay attention. Especially in a matchup with a Mountaineer team that has been over achieving. SQ ranks WVU 102nd in their adjusted offensive rating. KenPom is not far behind at 104th. They are still due for some regression even after their 2-4 slide. The DeVries injury is finally catching up to this team a bit.

I like BYU to come into Morgantown and pick-up a nice road win. Give me the two.

Score Prediction: BYU 70 – WVU 67

UConn +4.5 : Red Panda? Dollar Beer night? The hell with them. In all seriousness, Omaha will be electric tonight. I will not dispute that. I also appreciate the extra bump that I am getting on the spread due to this.

UConn let us down against the Johnnies on Friday. The Huskies just couldn’t shake the turnover bug after an electric start to the game. This was following a game where they turned it over 25 times against Marquette (still won). 47 turnovers in two games.

Howeverrrrrrrrrr .. if there is a team that can help you shake this bug, it is the Creighton Bluejays. Creighton is 360th out of 364 Division 1 basketball teams in turning their opponents over. This gives an immediate boost to UConn when handicapping this game. Their biggest weakness right now cannot be exploited.

UConn lost a very tight one to this Creighton team in Storrs about a month ago. Liam McNeeley is back now and I think that makes a massive difference in this matchup. He is a certified PTP’er.

With the addition of McNeeley and Creighton’s inability to force turnovers, I am not sure why we are seeing Creighton as a 4.5 point favorite here. Especially after UConn was laying 7.5 at home on January 18th without McNeeley. I made it Creighton -1 and would have leaned UConn there. I will gladly take the points and I think UConn wins a close one. This is a Best Bet.

Score Prediction: UConn 73 – Creighton 71

Pitt +5 : This is about as low of a value as you will get on Pitt this year. Going 2-7 in your last 9 with the wins being Syracuse & UNC will do that to you. I cannot blame you guys if you don’t want to tail me here. However, I simply must play the number.

I love the fight that Damian Dunn brings to the game. The guy gives 110% every time he is out there. However, his injury may be addition by subtraction for the makeup of this Panthers team. Pitt was 2-7 in his return from his hand injury. You could tell it was still bothering him and the FG% also told that story. The fractured elbow against UNC will cost him the season. I wish him well on that recovery, but this injury might allow Pitt to get back into their grove that we saw earlier this season. The usage of Lowe and Leggett will rise back up and that is a very, very good thing.

SMU’s defensive SQ profile concerns me. They rank 305th in spacing allowed, 297th in shot making, 335th in defensive rebounding, and 309th in open three rate allowed. I think this 18-5 record may be a bit of smoke and mirrors. They have been kicking the shit out of the bottom of the horrible ACC. Here are the teams they have beaten in their 7-1 run in their last 8: Georgia Tech, Virginia, Miami, NC State, Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech. They got blitzed by 25 points to Louisville who was the only Top 80 KenPom team they played during that stretch. I think Pitt will be able to keep this one close tonight. Give me the points.

Score Prediction: SMU 78 – Pitt 77

Oregon -8.5 : I really feel for Northwestern. It is a program that I have enjoyed watching over the last few seasons, but these injuries are just too much to overcome in the new age Big 10 gauntlet. Barnhizer and Leach meant way too much to this short rotation. This was a major reason why we backed Washington in a Best Bet spot the other night, and we were able to cash that one with relative ease.

Nick Martinelli is a phenomenal player. He just cannot handle the entire load by himself. Martinelli was gassed by the end of the Washington game and his effectiveness took a dip. Oregon has so many bodies they can send his way. Brandon Angel, Supreme Cook, Kwame Evans Jr. etc. I think it will be a long night for the Wildcats offensively if Martinelli 20+ FGA is still their gameplan (not sure what else it would be). I also think this is going to be a massive Nate Bittle game offensively for Oregon. Northwestern got blasted on the boards and around the rim by Osobor and the Huskies. Nicholson is the only line of defense in the frontcourt & on the glass for the Wildcats. I expect him to have massive issues tonight.

Oregon has been playing better than their recent results have showed. They melted the big lead away at Sparty over the weekend, but that was still graded as an 82-72 ShotQuality win. The Ducks will let out all of the frustrations from their losing skid out on Northwestern tonight. Maybe check some alt lines if you are into that sort of thing. This is my 2nd Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Oregon 77 – Northwestern 63

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

2/5 Three Ball & State of the Union

(photo: CAEAN COUTO)

24/25 Season Record: 184-154

2/5 Card :

  • Missouri State +4 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (Caesars)
  • TCU -1.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (DK)
  • LSU/UGA over 142 (9:00pm – SECN) (Caesars)
  • Washington +2 (10:30pm – BTN) (Caesars) **Best Bet**

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State of the Union: The rough week that we have endured snowballed into a bagel last night. A few close ones, but when you are walking through a blizzard that is what happens. Unfortunately, these weeks happen a few times a season. I wish they were avoidable, but it’s just the cost of doing business in this space. I will not be changing my process. That is how things can snowball even further. We have just received a visit from the Regression Monster that I always speak of. I am sorry for the recent results, but just know that I am continuing to put in the work for all of us. I have always stated to maybe take a seat until I heat back up when these times occur, but as always I leave all of the decisions up to y’all.

I decided against a write-up today. I am still heated from last night and I don’t want to half ass a write-up for you guys. Will potentially get one out tomorrow. Definitely will have one for Saturday. Let’s heat up and get back to the winning ways! Onward and upward. Thank y’all.

2/1 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images)

24/25 Season Record: 182-147

2/1 Card :

  • Villanova -1.5 (1:00pm – FOX) 
  • Ole Miss +6.5 (2:00pm – ESPN) 
  • Oklahoma -2.5 (3:30pm – SECN)
  • UConn +7.5 (8:00pm – FOX)
  • Gonzaga +1 (11:00pm – ESPN)

** All given on X. Any other adds will be tweeted out without a write-up

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Villanova -1.5 : This is the return leg from a conference meeting that we saw on December 21st earlier this season. Creighton was able to pull away in the 2H and get a homecourt win. I firmly believe Villanova returns the favor today.

Creighton is 360th in the country in defensive turnover percentage. Villanova’s methodical offense that runs through Brickus and Dixon is a terrible matchup for a Jays team that lacks in ball pressure. The Wildcats rank 2nd in ShotQuality’s offensive spacing metric.

This mismatch led to Villanova only having ONE turnover on the road in Omaha. One. Creighton was able to win the game behind a scorching three point performance as a team. The Jays shot 14-25 from three. These shots snowballed momentum in a very tough place to play, and Villanova just couldn’t catch up. I believe the matchup edge listed above will be a huge factor today. Also, the Wildcats have moved up to the #1 three point percentage team in the country. I think they steal back the 3point edge at Finneran.

Nova wins the three point and turnover battle and gets a big time home win. Will lay the tiny number.

Score Prediction: Villanova 73 – Creighton 68

Ole Miss +6.5 : This is one of my favorite plays of the season. The Rebs are winnin’ this one outright.

If you are going to come at Auburn, you best have a ShotQuality profile like the one you see below:

I trust Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray to be able to handle the ball pressure that Pearl will throw at them. Keeping Auburn from getting in transition is going to be key here. In the event that live ball turnovers do happen, Ole Miss ranks Top 30 in the country in transition defense per Shot Quality.

It also needs to be pointed out that Auburn has consistently been on the receiving end of poor shot making luck by their opponents. I will not necessarily call these outcomes a “fluke”, I believe their spirts and momentum can have a major impact on open looks for their opponents. Especially at the Jungle. They are on the road today though. I think the Regression Monster might come out to play.

Auburn has barely skated by in a few road contests recently (USC & UGA). I believe that Ole Miss’ ability to take care of the ball & create will be enough to pull off a win in this fiery home spot. This is a Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 74 – Auburn 73

Oklahoma -2.5 : I side with KenPom instead of the AP Poll here. KenPom projections have this as a 5 point Sooner victory. I made this game -5.5. I think Oklahoma has a chance to win comfortably in this one. I would’ve played Oklahoma up to 4. I will gladly lay the 2.5.

It is an awesome story to see Vanderbilt at 16-4 and ranked in the polls in Mark Byington’s first season at the helm. We were on this team early and rode them all of the way to the Charleston Classic championship game. We were even able to continue to grab value on the Dores early in SEC play. The value in their market price has been completely drained at this point though. In fact, I think the pendulum has finally swung the other way. It is time to step in and make a play against Vandy.

The Sooners are finally finding their footing after a rough start to SEC play. Oklahoma was 13-0 entering conference play and then proceeded to lose their first four SEC games. They have won 2 out of 3 since, and the offense continues to be LEGIT. The Sooners are 26th and 28th in the KenPom and ShotQuality adjusted offensive ratings. Vanderbilt has been impressive in conference, but a lot of that great form has come in Nashville. The Dores are 1-2 in conference on the road (lone win at LSU) & allowing 83.3 points per game in those contests. Oklahoma should be able to score at will in this one. Jeremiah Fears is a matchup nightmare for Vanderbilt. Take a look at his points prop for tomorrow. It might be worth a play.

Sooners win this one comfortably at home. This is a Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma 80 – Vanderbilt 71

UConn +7.5 : So you’re saying there’s a chance?

Could this be the game that Liam McNeeley returns? I doubt it. This is probably just a ploy by UConn to have Marquette prepare based on a maybe. However, I made this number 5.5 even without McNeeley. I will gladly jump in and make this a play. If McNeeley is activated, we are going to be sitting pretty with this number.

I believe that UConn’s biggest weakness could be hidden a bit in this matchup. The Huskies have put their opponents to the free throw line at an alarming rate this season. This has been a major reason for their “disappointing” season to this point. The Huskies rank 343rd in opponent free throw rate. Marquette’s inability to get to the line could be key in keeping UConn in this one. The Golden Eagles are only 333rd in getting to the stripe. This could be UConn’s saving grace.

Dan Hurley has owned Shaka since he arrived at Marquette. Hurley is 6-2 in these matchups, including 3-0 a season ago. I trust Hurley to have gameplan to keep us in this one. Give me the points.

Score Prediction: Marquette 75 – UConn 70

Gonzaga +1 : The Zags have already flipped to a favorite here. I have been burned by the Gaels several times this year, but I have to continue to trust my evaluation and numbers. I think the Zags win this one.

Gonzaga’s metrics are well beyond what their record shows. The Zags are still 10th in KenPom with a 16-6 record. They are also 2nd in Shot Quality’s adjusted offensive rating (5th in KenPom). Their defense is also rated highly by ShotQuality and the Zags are 5th overall in the adjusted ShotQuality rating. Shot Quality also shows that the Saint Mary’s defense might not be as good as the surface numbers show. The Gaels only rank 48th in the adjusted Shot Quality defensive rating. Saint Mary’s has played a relatively easy schedule to this point. This might be the night that the defense gets exposed.

Mark Few & this group are very used to the atmosphere in Moraga. While it will get a little rowdy, it is still a small gym atmosphere. This was an “upset” spot (SMC was laying 3.5 at close) people were picking last year as well, and Gonzaga cruised to a 70-57 victory. I like Gonzaga to walk into Moraga and pull off another victory.

Score Prediction: Gonzaga 75 – Saint Mary’s 69

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

1/21 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Erik Schelkun)

24/25 Season Record: 160-129

1/21 Card :

  • Rhode Island +7 (7:00pm – CBSSN) (given on X yesterday) 
  • Cincinnati +2 (7:00pm – ESPNU) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**
  • Mississippi State +7.5 (7:00pm – ESPN2) (given on X yesterday)
  • Dayton -3.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**

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Rhode Island +7 : We are going to turn to our great friends over at Shot Quality for the edge in this matchup. I was doing some snooping around the site last night to see if I was able to marry my eye test with their fantastic data. Spoiler alert: I was.

Rhode Island has been fantastic attacking the rim in every game I have watched of theirs this season. Sebastian Thomas is one of the main focal points of that attack. He has gotten to the line 122 times this season! That is good for T-27th in the country. The Shot Quality data shows that VCU has received luck in opponent misses around the rim. The data expects them to be 6.3 percentage points higher in FG% allowed in that area.

Rhode Island’s frequency attacking the rim & free throw rate should be enough to bring out the Regression Monster on the Rams. I already liked this spot from a feel standpoint, so I am excited to back the home dog tonight. Give us the points.

Score Prediction: VCU 77 – Rhode Island 74

Cincinnati +2 : I will continue to back these Bearcats at their current market price. I am a firm believer in the pieces and coaching on this team in comparison to where they are betting priced from a betting perspective.

This Cincinnati defense is continuously getting slept on by national media. The Bearcats are all the way up to 7th in KenPom’s defensive rating. They are 5th in the country when it comes to effective field goal percentage allowed. That could be trouble for a Red Raider offense that sometimes struggles with shot selection (179th in SQ). The Red Raiders butter their bread by their abilities to score Rim & 3 SQ PPP better than any team in the country. Cincinnati is equipped to handle that. The Bearcats rank 4th in defending that metric. I think we see a lot of poor shots from the Red Raiders tonight that will lead to a strong performance from Cincy. I love the short home dog here. Bearcats win this one. Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Cincinnati 69 – Texas Tech 65

Mississippi State +7.5 : We received some great injury news this morning on two Bulldog players from Jon Rothstein.

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1881692659192091088

These two guys have turned out to be major pieces for Chris Jans this season. It is important that they play tonight.

7.5 is an insane number to me. I know the firepower that Tennessee possesses in Knoxville. We backed them very recently on a big number against UGA. Mississippi State is just getting slept on here though in my opinion. This team is really good. The Bulldogs are actually rated higher in the Shot Quality adjusted overall rankings. SQ has Miss State at 8th & Tennessee at 12th. The market is being driven by a 74-65 predicted final on KenPom. I just don’t see it. This Bulldog defense will travel. They are up to 5th in SQ adjusted defensive rating. The regression model shows they are due to get even better. Meanwhile, SQ shows that Tennessee is due for a massive uptick in offense allowed from their opponents. They are sitting at .90 PPP allowed, and SQ projects them to be at 1.02. Give us the points. Mississippi State might be live here.

Score Prediction: Tennessee 71 – Mississippi State 69

Dayton -3.5 : The market is loving to fade Dayton at the moment. Can you blame them? The Flyers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7. This number is down to 2.5 at some markets. I know the Flyers have been a shell of their former self recently, but this matchup is screaaaaaming Flyers by double digits.

Why is this the spot that the market is choosing to attack Dayton the hardest? Couldn’t tell ya. Maybe it is because Duquesne bounced Dayton from the A-10 tournament a season ago. I wouldn’t bank on that having any relevance. A revenge spot for Dayton if anything. This is a very poorly coached Duquesne team. I am not a believer in Dru Joyce (yet). The Dukes are lacking in many areas in his first year at the helm. The Shot Quality PPP allowed ATO’s is telling. The Dukes rank 360th in that regard. Pure coaching ineptitude. The roster just isn’t that great in my opinion as well. The Dukes are 340th in shots allowed attacking the rim. There is no rim protection to be found. The really damning stat is their free throw rates. Duquesne ranks 278th in FTR, and the also rank 312th in opponent FTR. This is going to be the area where Dayton feasts. The Flyers get to the line even during their struggles. Dayton is 35th in the country in FTR, and are 88th in opponent FTR. There should be a massive edge tonight from the stripe for Dayton.

Dayton reminds some folks today. Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Dayton 73 – Duquesne 63

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

1/15 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Zach Boyden-Holmes / The Register)

24/25 Season Record: 146-121

1/15 Card :

  • Iowa State -5.5 (7:00pm – ESPN2) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**
  • Tennessee -11 (8:00pm – SECN) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**
  • Utah +4.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (DK)
  • Purdue/Washington over 144.5 (9:30pm – BTN) (given on X yesterday)

————————————

Iowa State -5.5 : Nothing like a little Hilton Magic to get us out of our funk. Hilton Coliseum is going to be a pressure cooker tonight. The Cyclones have the nation’s longest winning streak and are welcoming Kansas to Ames. This is about as tuned up of a home court advantage that you will get all season from a handicapping perspective. Is that baked into this number? Yes. However, my number for this game is different than the norm. My power ratings of these teams have Iowa State -4.5 to -5 on a neutral. I will gladly lay the -5.5 here.

This Kansas roster still does not do it for me. When you talk about how much money was spent in Lawrence this offseason, I think it is close to a complete disaster from a roster construction standpoint. (Yes, I am aware they are 12-3 and are ranked 9th in the AP Poll.) The backcourt is where the problem lies for me. Zeke Mayo is the only Jayhawk that has scored with enough firepower to be a difference maker for this team. Yet, he he has been a non-factor in true road games: 12 points at Creighton, 4 points at Mizzou, 6 points at UCF, 9 points at Cincinnati. Shooting a combined 14/39 from the field in those four games. Rylan Griffen and AJ Storr were the star pieces from the transfer portal class this offseason, and they can’t even get on the court at the moment. Storr has played a combined 14 minutes in the last two games. Bill Self is having to lean on DaJuan Harris, Zeke Mayo and Shakeel Moore to carry the minutes at the moment. This Jayhawks have fallen all the way to 363rd in the country in free throw rate. There are 364 teams, fellas. There is ZERO rim threat from this team other than an occasional KJ Adams lob. Even he is struggling to find his form this season. I don’t see a world where this team finds success offensively tonight.

Iowa State is incredible. One of my favorite teams in the country this year. The home court atmosphere will be special, and I don’t see a world where Zeke Mayo decides to flip the script on his road performances here. Hunter Dickinson can’t do it all on his own in this one. I think Iowa State wins this one comfortably. Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Iowa State 77 – Kansas 68

Tennessee -11 : It has been an awesome season so far for Mike White and the Bulldogs. Georgia is all the way up to 36th in KenPom. Amazing stuff. Tonight is going to be a tough wake up call.

Tennessee is a horrible matchup for Georgia. The Dawgs have found success this season on the offensive glass, from the free throw line, and on 2point FG %. These are three key areas that the Vols are equipped to limit. Georgia is 9th in offensive rebounding percentage, but Tennessee bests them by coming in at 7th. The Vols are 20th in the country in opponent free throw rate, so UGA will likely struggle to make their same impact there as well. Also, Tennessee is 27th in the country in opponent 2point FG%. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the country per KenPom in opponent effective field goal percentage. UGA is going to find it very difficult to lean on any of their strengths tonight.

Tennessee is also equipped to attack the flaws that Georgia has. UGA ranks 278th in the country in turnover percentage on offense. They are also ranked 331st in steal percentage allowed. The Vols defense ranks Top 50 in both of these categories. The points off of turnovers gap should be massive in this game.

I like Tennessee to come after their road trip and kick some ass. This is my 2nd Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Tennessee 75 – UGA 59

Utah +4.5 : I really like this spot for Utah. The Utes have 6 losses on the season and the record doesn’t look sexy, but all six of these losses were to Top 50 KenPom teams. They aren’t built to compete with the big boys, but I think that they can be a scrappy team against teams that are on their level.

This Horned Frog offense is really awful to watch. From the eye test, this is the worst offense that I can remember under Jamie Dixon in Fort Worth. I did some digging and TCU is ranked lower in the KenPom adjusted offensive rating than any team in recorded history for Jamie Dixon. TCU is ranked 235th in the country in effective FG %. Utah’s defense is ranked 40th in effective FG % allowed. The Utes are also 48th in this category offensively.

The results will start falling Utah’s way when they aren’t playing the giants of the Big 12. Utah is a better team than TCU in my estimation. TCU’s homecourt is certainly not worth 4.5. The Utes pick-up a road win here.

Score Prediction: Utah 73 – TCU 71

Purdue/Washington over 144.5 : The Boilermaker offense is finally finding its footing this season after replacing the big fella. Purdue is averaging 83.7 PPG over their last three games. They are also all the way up to 6th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive rating. Washington’s defense has gotten completely blasted in their last three outings. They have given up 86.7 PPG in their last three. Purdue is going to have their way offensively in this one. I also think Washington will find a little bit of success against Purdue defensively in the Boilermakers first new-age West Coast Big 10 road trip. The Huskies adjusted tempo keeps rising. There will be points in this one.

Score Prediction: Purdue 79 – Washington 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

1/7 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Hawkeyes Wire)

24/25 Season Record: 134-107

1/7 Card :

  • Xavier +1.5 (6:30pm – FS1) (given on X yesterday) 
  • Florida -1.5 (7:00pm – ESPN2) (given on X yesterday) 
  • Arizona -2 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**
  • Iowa -3.5 (8:00pm – Peacock) (given on X yesterday) **BEST BET**
  • Texas +11.5 (9:00pm – ESPN2) (given on X yesterday)
  • UNLV/Boise State under 140.5 (10:30pm – FS1) (FD)

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Xavier +1.5 : Zach Freemantle is so important to this team’s power rating for me. It was a complete surprise to most of us that he returned as quickly as he did from his lower body injury. Many were reporting that his Xavier career was over in the days following the injury. Freemantle looked like his normal self against Georgetown, so that has bumped the Muskies back up in my power ratings. That bump has them as a short favorite for me in this one. I will gladly take the point and a half of cushion.

There are some ATS trends working in our favor here. Xavier is 1-0 ATS in their only scenario as a home dog this season. They lost to Marquette by 2 points at the Cintas Center & almost won the damn thing after a furious comeback. The Musketeers are also 4-1 ATS following a loss this season. St. John’s has looked mortal on the road in conference to start the season. They are 0-2 ATS with an outright loss to Creighton w/o Pop Isaacs, and a narrow comeback win by 2 points over Providence w/o Bryce Hopkins. I like the way these trends are speaking to me.

I believe that the three point line is the key tonight. The Johnnies are 297th in the country in three point makes per game. Xavier is going to blitz them from behind the arc & win outright to get their season back on track.

Score Prediction: Xavier 78 – St. John’s 74

Florida -1.5 : A lot of people in national media that only look at the AP Poll are surprised to see Tennessee as an underdog. There is no surprise to me that Florida is a short favorite here. The analytics show us that these teams are in a dead heat for 2nd place in the SEC behind Auburn at the moment. Florida is actually 4 spots higher than Tennessee in the SQ adjusted overall rating. I am glad to lay the short number at home.

This is the key analytic tonight. Tennessee is not going to be able to impose their will physically tonight as they have so far this season. This Florida team can bang with the best of them. Another data point I am looking at is Tennessee’s three point rate allowed. Teams are letting it fly from distance because they are unable to penetrate the paint on the Vols. Florida will be just fine settling behind the arc with Walter Clayton Jr. and the rest of their cast. The Gators are 31st in the country in three pointers made per game, and are 6th in the country per Shot Quality in 3PT efficiency.

Some serious steam here. I hope most of you grabbed this number last night. Laying -3.5 or -4 would give me pause. I do think Florida wins by a couple of possessions though. The last remaining undefeated goes down tonight.

Score Prediction: Florida 76 – Tennessee 71

Arizona -2 : The Wildcats are getting blasted for their early season results. Rightfully so. 8-5 is not good enough for the talent level of this roster. This team is finally starting to round into form in my estimation though. The Wildcats most recently picked up a win over Cincinnati on the road. They had to hold onto the win at the end, but what impressed me was the gear that they hit to build out a 19 point 2H lead. There is a good team in there. I believe it.

This is a rematch of a Battle 4 Atlantis matchup earlier in the season. Arizona fought back from a 10 point 2H deficit to force OT, but the Mountaineers 12 three point makes proved to be too much in the end. I think they will find a hard time replicating that success today. The main reason? The fella that went 8-12 from distance is out indefinitely. The Mountaineers have been winning without their start forward, Tucker DeVries, but I suspect that is going to catch up with them starting today. I am also worried about the Mountaineer defense long-term. Shot Quality shows they are due for serious regression:

Arizona still ranks high analytically. They are 17th in KenPom and 29th in the SQ Adj rating. The Wildcats have proven that they can handle a road environment and I like them to pick up a win tonight in a revenge spot. This is a Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Arizona 77 – WVU 70

Iowa -3.5 : This is going to be a blitz that we have become accustomed to seeing a couple of times a season at Carver-Hawkeye over the last 5-6 years. Fran McCaffery always has a high octane offense capable of delivering a blowout, and I certainly see the opportunity for one tonight.

Nebraska’s defensive scheme is in trouble here in my opinion. The Cornhuskers are 355th in the country in opponent three point rate. They are allowing three point attempts on 49.7% of their opponent’s shots from the field. Hoiberg has found success this season, so it is hard to knock it from a macro standpoint. The are protecting the paint, allowing huge spacing (347th in the country), and trying to close out hard on three pointers. It has been successful this season because their opponents are only shooting 29.2% from distance. That is 34th best in the country. That is bound to change in my opinion. Shot Quality shows that the Cornhuskers should be allowing close to 33% based on the looks of their opponents. Iowa is going to bring them that regression in a big way today. The Hawkeyes are elite in protecting the ball (5th), spacing (21st) and efficient three point shooting (23rd). I would not be shocked to see 15+ makes from distance from Iowa. I smell a blowout in a bounce back spot for Iowa. I might even toy with some alt lines. I love this one.

Score Prediction: Iowa 86 – Nebraska 72

Texas +11.5 : You aren’t going to get a lot from me here. Auburn is fantastic. There are not many analytical edges that you can point to as a weakness that Texas can exploit. I am simply fighting back against the “Auburn Tax” in the market. I had this game at 8. I will take the double digit points with the Longhorns in a fiery home spot. Best of luck to us all.

Score Prediction: Auburn 80 – Texas 72

UNLV/Boise State under 140.5 : I am predicting a very slow pace tonight. The Runnin’ Rebels coming into tonight’s game at 281st in KenPom adjusted tempo. Boise State comes in at 215, but I think that Leon Rice wouldn’t mind if they even played a little slower than that. These defenses are also pretty decent. Boise State is pushing to be a Top 50 ShotQuality adjusted defense, and UNLV is close to cracking the Top 100. The Runnin’ Rebels also have a glaring spot on their resume that is due for regression. They are 20th in the country in 3PT % shooting 38.5%. I just do not believe in the long-term success in the shooters on this team. They don’t either. They are 287th in the country in 3PT rate. Their regression will come in a big way with a 3PT rate that low. I suspect we see a very low 3point make number on the road in Boise tonight. I see this number closer to 136-137. I will take my chances with the under here.

Score Prediction: Boise State 73 – UNLV 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

1/1 Three Ball

(photo: John Fetcho)

24/25 Season Record: 123-98

1/1 Card :

  • Miami -1.5 (12:00pm – ACC Network) (DK)
  • Louisville 1H ML (6:00pm – ACC Network) (DK)
  • Butler +1.5 (6:30pm – FS1) (DK) **Best Bet**

What an incredible 2024! For the one’s that have been with me through this 5 year run, thank you! Also, thank you to everyone who has jumped onboard this year! I hope I was able to help y’all enjoy our game of college hoops just a little more than before you found me. If you feel inclined, the tip jar QR code is listed below for CashApp. It is not required and do not feel pressured. Any amount is VERY appreciated. Let’s have another monster year in 2025!

Week Seven Recap & 12/23 Pick

(photo: Wesley Hale, USA Today)

Week 7 Record: 19-8 (5-4 Best Bets)

BOOOOM!!!

What a week! 70% is the good stuff, gentlemen. Love to see all of the positive response from everyone. Let’s keep it rolling!

The tip jar is finally active. Feel free to send any thank you’s to $ThreePointSniper on CashApp. One play today. College of Charleston +2 (DK). Let’s go Cougs!