(photo: Duke Chronicle)
We’re baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!!
& it feels fantastic! I am ready to get out of the preliminary injunction courtroom and onto the court when talking college basketball. I am excited for another season on this account. Thank you to everyone who has been here from the jump, and also to all of the friends we have made along the way. The community grows exponentially every year & we are going to continue making this the best CBB community on Twitter!
As a refresher + info for anyone new, I haven’t charged for a single pick since we opened the account 2020. This is a place where you can check-in and check-out throughout the year if you do not feel like partaking in the daily grind. I cannot tell how many times people say they appreciate that. I also love the dedicated gamblers who are in the fight with me on a daily basis. The twitter comradery is so damn fun when we win. I am just a normal guy who has a passion for this sport. I am not going to sell you on a made up algorithm or try to seem smarter than I am. I hope you can appreciate that. Especially when we lose. No financial advice here, and that is why I do not post units. We track win percentages on individual standard plays. Simple with a purpose. I want to share what I played for the day with my thoughts behind it, and let you make the decision of what you would like to do with your money. It ain’t mine to spend!
I hope I can share some fun insight and knowledge (outside of picks) from the vast college basketball landscape along the way in my write-ups and tweets/retweets. That is fun for me also. Let’s get fat as hell on some pizza this year, eh?
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National Title Futures:
We are going with a three team portfolio this year. We definitely had an off year on our title picks a season ago, but in 24/25 we had dueling Florida 60-1 and Houston 15-1 tickets for a National Championship. Let’s flush last season and recapture the magic!
Title Pick:
Duke +600 (MGM)
Not electric by any means. Taking the preseason odds-on favorite is not something we have done before. I am also not the boy who cried Duke. This is the first time we will be backing the Blue Devils. It is warranted. Scheyer finishes the job this season.
This is going to be the best defense in the country from an efficiency standpoint. Close to a guarantee. We will start with the KenPom defensive efficiency trends in the John Scheyer era:
- 22/23: 16th
- 23/24: 16th
- 24/25: 5th
- 25/26: 3rd
The upward trajectory will send the Blue Devils right into the #1 spot this season. Dame Sarr leads the group as one of the best defenders in the country. He was All-ACC defensive selecton as a freshman a season ago, and is receiving national preseason nods as we we enter this one.
Duke has a beast in the post in Patrick Ngongba II. This veteran big was banged up several times over the course of last season, but still was able to finish in the 83rd percentile in block percentage while hobbled. Ngongba has looked fantastic in the preseason and I expect a very big season from him defensively and on the glass. The highly touted freshman, Joaquim Boumtje-Boumtje, is the talk of the exhibition season. While most are excited for his offensive ability as a versatile 7 footer that can shoot and finish around the rim, I believe he will be very impactful as a defender and defensive rebounder as well. Adding this piece to a team that already includes Ngongba is something to salivate over. Scheyer also has two fantastic get in your ass on-ball backcourt defenders in Cayden Boozer and Deron Rippey Jr. that will be picking up the ball handers immediately after a bucket. It is going to be annoying as hell to deal with them at the beginning of the shot clock, because as we know with a Scheyer team … you do not want to enter the deep waters of a shot clock against the Blue Devils. Duke’s opponents had an average possession length of 18.4 seconds per KenPom. That was 334th in the country in pace. It makes it so easy for Duke’s defense to strangle you when you are pressed by a late clock.
Defense will be the backbone of this team, but the offensive side of the ball will be battling to be just as elite in the KenPom metrics. We spoke about the elite defensive capabilities of Dame Sarr earlier, but this exhibition season is showing us that he has taken a massive leap on the offensive end of his game.
His off-screen decision making & movements are a complete 180 from a season ago. He is finding teammates for easy shots, while also finishing where he sees fit. It’s going to be a long season for defenders dealing with the Sarr + Boumtje-Boumtje in P&R scenarios. These two are going to have monster offensive seasons.
Duke also added one of my favorite scorers in the country this portal season.
John Blackwell is that dude. I don’t need to do a deep dive here – you know the name. He is going to get his every night out. Having an elite veteran scorer like this makes the Blue Devils so dangerous.
We are looking at another Top 5 KenPom offense and defense in Durham as we saw in the Flagg/Knueppel year. This is the season Scheyer finally breaks through with his first.
They Have a Shot Pick:
Louisville +2500 (FD)
Trust me. There was no emotion in making this decision, but I do love that the deep dive lead us to this point. Pat, we are here to ride again. Those who have been here since the beginning know our love affair with Pat Kelsey. He accepted the job here in Charleston in my first full year running this account & he has came through many times for us. It is time to go on another ride with one of the most talented rosters in the country.
Before Pat dominated the portal (we will get there), he went out and grabbed two of the best assistant coaching hires in the country. He knew his program needed to get better defensively (never a calling card for Kelsey teams) & he got two of the best minds in the sport in that department to join his staff. We will start with John Andrzejek. Andrzejek was the mastermind behind the national title winning Florida Gator defense (thank you, John!!!). He has been credited for that many times by Todd Golden. Andrzejek’s focus on the Gators was to build out the frontcourt & be the “defensive coordinator”. I think he did a pretty damn good job building out that frontcourt to say the least. Andrzejek made the leap to become a head coach last year after the Gators title winning season. He was unable to build real traction at Campbell due to some false promises of what would be available to him from an NIL standpoint. After one season, he decided to jump back into an assistant role as one of the highest paid in that position in the country at Louisville. He loves what he has with this group.
Kelsey didn’t stop with the Andrzejek hire. He also went and grabbed Sean Dixon from Clemson. A key defensive assistant for Brad Brownell for the previous 4 seasons. The Clemson defenses improved heavily after the addition of Dixon to their staff. Their KenPom defensive efficiency ranks went from 65th, to 35th, to 17th, to 24th a season ago. The Andrzejek + Dixon combo is going to be scary.
Louisville dominated the player transfer portal as much as they dominated the assistant carousel. Here is a list of the major impact newcomers from the portal: Jackson Shelstad (Oregon), Flory Bidunga (Kansas), Seth Trimble – newly eligible (UNC), Alvaro Folgueiras (Iowa), Karter Knox (Arkansas), De’Shayne Montgomery (Dayton), LJ Wells (Northern Kentucky). Pure firepower. I love the mix of scoring, play creating, and defending in this group. Louisville also has Adrian Wooley as impact returner to add to this group, along with a STAR freshman, Obinna Ekezie Jr..
Andrzejek & Dixon have been steadily praising Ekezie’s ability on the defensive end of the court. It is going to be a block party with him and Bidunga.
The talent is here. The coaching here. It wasn’t ideal to have two teams from the same conference in the national title porfolio, but here we are. This team has a shot. Go Cards.
Dark Horse Pick:
Kansas +3000 (DK)
Hilarious to name Kansas as a dark horse pick, I get it. But at 30 to 1 .. I think it fits. I currently don’t see anyone outside of this number with a Final Four chance. It is a top heavy year in my opinion. Tyran Stokes is here, folks.
Stokes looks like an absolute star. The question is who will be in the starting five with him when March rolls around. As of now, Melvin Council Jr and Tre White are eligible through a preliminary injunction and playing in these exhibition games. Those are massive additions to the roster as returning impact players. We are still waiting on word if Tre Kaufman-Renn will see the floor. As much as I hate all of this, we have to operate in the college basketball world that is given to us. With Council Jr. and White playing, I feel comfortable taking a stab at this future. TKR active and playing would add tremendous value to this number. We’ll see.
This is seemingly one of Bill Self’s last seasons at the helm. He hasn’t confirmed that, but it has that feel. He is a competitor that would love to go out on top. I’ll take a dark horse stab with this one.
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Conference Title Tickets:
ACC: Duke -135 (DK)
Give me the juice box. There is enough of an edge here. This will be the the #1 overall seed in the tournament.
Big East: UConn +138 (DK)
Love the gritty roster Hurley has built. Nikolas Khamenia will fit right in. The Huskies will outlast the Johnnies in conference play.
Big Sky: Montana State +200 (DK)
Matt Logie is a KenPom riser. He has beaten his KenPom projections & showed improvement all three years since Danny Sprinkle’s departure. The Bobcats ended last year in the 134th spot. He is returning a massive core & will be the class of the league.
Mountain West: New Mexico +275 (MGM)
It’s Jake Hall szn.
My love affair with Eric Olen rolls on. One hell of a coach & he wins the Mountain West crown in his 2nd season. Best coach, best player, best venue (I need to get to the Pit). We ride with the Lobos.
Summit: South Dakota State +580 (DK)
Jesse Van Kalsbeek was an absolute super star at the NAIA level. His tape is very impressive. If he translates, this Jackrabbits team could absolutely win the Summit. Sayler and Garry are great returning pieces as well. I expect a much better year for young head coach Bryan Petersen in year 2 at the helm.
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Individual Awards:
John Wooden Award: Tyran Stokes +1700 (DK)
You don’t have to be on the best team to win this award. We have seen Luka Garza. Oscar Tshiebwe, etc. win this award in recent seasons. Kansas will be good enough to keep Stokes in this conversation. He should be stuffing stat sheets all year long in route to putting himself in serious contention for this award. Let’s make it a freshman for a third year in a row!
*I gave heavy consideration to John Blackwell & Thomas Haugh here, but I think there are too many cooks in the kitchen on those fantastic teams for them to put up enough numbers to feel comfortable with their current prices.
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Notable Coaching Changes:
This will be a good refresher to get your minds right before next week. Below is a list of notable newly sitting head coaches. Previous stops included.
Oregon: Tony Stubblefield (on staff)
Michigan: Mike Boynton (on staff)
UNC: Michael Malone (NBA)
UNI: Kyle Green (Iowa State asst.)
NC State: Justin Gainey (Tennessee asst.)
Charleston: John Groce (Akron)
Utah State: Ben Jacobson (UNI)
LSU: Will Wade (NC State)
Boston College: Luke Murray (UConn asst.)
USF: Chris Mack (Charleston)
Butler: Ronald Nored (NBA)
Arizona State: Randy Bennett (St. Mary’s)
Creighton: Alan Huss (on staff)
Cincinnati: Jerrod Calhoun (Utah State)
St Mary’s: Mickey McConnell (on staff)
Providence: Bryan Hodgson (USF)
Syracuse: Gerry McNamara (Sienna)
Georgia Tech: Scott Cross (Troy)
Belmont: Evan Bradds (Duke asst)
Kansas State: Casey Alexander (Belmont)
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A big thank you if you made it this far! Rome awaits on Sunday!
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
