(photo: Presbyterian College)
Season Record: 0-0
Best Bet Record: 0-0
WELCOME BACK!!! The time is here for the first write-up of the season. The slate took some time to comb through, but I have found several spots that I love. THREE Best Bets to get the year started. Having three Best Bets will not be a norm here, but I tend to believe you can find better edges early before the books get their hands on in-season data. My preseason power rankings are also not as aligned with KenPom and BartTorvik as they normally are. Hoping for a big day. Let’s get hot!
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11/2 Card :
- Georgia State -3.5 (6:00pm ET – ESPN+) (DK)
- Presbyterian +3.5 (7:00pm ET – ESPN+) (DK) **Best Bet**
- Loyola Chi -14.5 (8:00pm – ESPN+) (FD) **Best Bet**
- Bethune Cookman +5.5 (8:00pm – YouTube) (DK) **Best Bet**
- Ohio State/BYU over 160 (9:00pm – FS1) (Caesars)
- New Mexico -22.5 (9:00pm – MW+) (FD)
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Georgia State -3.5 : The Jon Cremins era is here. Cremins begins his head coaching career after many successful stops as an assistant for Mark Byington. Sign me up for this coaching tree.
I am a fan of the roster Cremins has built in Year 1 with a Sun Belt budget. A ton of experienced D1 contributors that are taking the chance on Cremins. I am a massive fan of Jaden Jackson. He took a massive leap in production in Year 2 at South Dakota State, and I believe the is going to thrive in the Byington/Cremins system. It should really improve his efficiency numbers. Jacob Meyer also comes in as a D1 veteran that should bring stability from an offensive perspective. He is picked in the preseason as a 1st Team All-Sun Belt selection. Meyer is reuniting with an old friend in Atlanta:
I believe this team has a real chance at early cohesion (even with the roster overhaul) due to this backcourt connection + the Byington/Cremins scheme of offense. Defense could be a cause of concern, but I am not buying that this Bowling Green team can take advantage of that. KenPom has this team ranked 11th out of 12 in the MAC. Will Warren has them ranked in the cellar in his Basket Under Review preview. This team is going to have a massive turnover problem. When they are not turning the ball over, I don’t see any type of play creation coming from the trio of Johnson, Shackelford and Cranford Jr.. This will indeed be a cellar team in the MAC. Let’s pick on them in this opener. I lean the over as well.
Score Prediction: Georgia State 84- Bowling Green 77
Presbyterian +3.5 : The first Best Bet of the season! We are riding with the Blue Hose.
PC has some of the strongest continuity in the country. Quinton Ferrell is returning every single player from last year’s roster other than Jonah Pierce and Josh Pickett. Due to this, KenPom is projecting the Blue Hose to have their highest finish ever under Ferrell.
There is a lot to love offensively here. Carl Parrish is going to continue to thrive as one of the best shooters in the country. He is a career 40.1% three point shooter with a high volume of shots. I also love the weapon that Triston Wilson is. It is not normal for a 6’7 215lb player to rank 2nd in the conference in assists, but that is exactly what Wilson did a year ago.
I love the defensive potential of this team as well. Jaylen Peterson is one of my favorite defenders at this level.
His length, athleticism and high motor are all elite at the low-major level. The Tommies are going to really struggle with his presence. St. Thomas is going to need Momcilovic and Lorenz to have an impact this season to reach their heights, and Peterson is going to be a thorn in their side all game long. The Tommies found success last year by finishing #1 in 2pt shooting percentage in the country. With their roster overhaul, I don’t see them having that same impact in the 26/27 season. Peterson and Chidi Chiakwelu are more than enough to keep that percentage in control this game.
A lot of people are high on St. Thomas again this year. It is understandable because Johnn Tauer is one hell of a coach. I just do not believe in this roster & that is why I picked South Dakota State to win the Summit. PC brings back a ton of quality production & I believe they get a win at home in their opener.
Score Prediction: Presbyterian 72 – St. Thomas 68
Loyola Chicago -14.5 : Drew Valentine had a major roster whiff last year. I am willing to forgive & trust that it was just a one year dip. We saw this happen in 22/23 season as well, and Valentine corrected the ship. I believe he has done just that for the 26/27 season.
Grotzinger is one of my favorite new international players at the mid-major level this season. His tape is incredible and he hit the ground running in the exhibition season for the Ramblers. I think that Valentine did a phenomenal job by going out and landing Donald Hand Jr. in the portal to bring a steady veteran in to compliment Grotzinger. This should be a great backcourt.
I am excited about the defensive potential of this team. It is looking more like the early years of Valentine in that department. The Ramblers held DePaul to 32.7% from the field while forcing 17 turnovers in their highest level exhibition. I was able to see some clips from this one & it was great to see the energy and tenacity from Loyola that we were missing all of last year.
This Citadel team is going to have a very hard time scoring against Loyola. This is one of the worst shooting teams in America. The Bulldogs do not have a single player on the roster that shot over 33% from distance last year. They also have one player on the roster that scored over 5 ppg at the D1 level last year (Bronson avg 5.4 w/ Furman). Loyola should have no problems forcing turnovers against this team. I smell a blow out. Laying the points with the new look Ramblers as another Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Loyola Chi 81 – Citadel 60
Bethune-Cookman +5.5 : I am predicting an upset here. The third Best Bet of the day.
There was a heavy roster overhaul for Bethune-Cookman. It’s pretty impressive what Reggie Theus was able to construct for a SWAC program. This defense is going to be LEGIT. Melian Martinez comes over from Louisiana Tech after having a place on the All-Defensive Team in C-USA. As Matthew Winnick has pointed out in their Basket Under Review preview, Martinez would have ranked 3rd nationally in block rate had he played 3% more of LA Tech’s minutes. Theus will have two absolute menaces in the backcourt in Jameel Morris and Jaylen Jones. They will be turning over opponents all year long. Morris was 31st nationally in steals a year ago at Alcorn State.
I have a few ties to the Furman program. I am hearing that things are not clicking as well as they had hoped to get the season started. Luka Toews went 3/18 from the field in exhibition season. That is not what they had in mind when spending a nice bit of their NIL allocation towards him. There has also been a bizarre heavy volume of shot attempts from Abijah Franklin. That is not by design I have been told. The exhibitions have not been great, but also hearing that the practices are not up to the Bob Richey standard. Speaking of Bob Richey..
Without Bob Richey on the sidelines, I can see Furman letting this one slip. Bethune-Cookman always seemingly provides some non-con theatrics somewhere (gave Auburn a heavy OT scare last year). I am banking on it happening again this season behind a heavy helping of forced turnovers. I do not trust what is going on in that Furman backcourt at the moment. The Wildcats get a massive win to get their year started.
Score Prediction: Bethune-Cookman 80 – Furman 76
Ohio State/BYU over 160 : This BYU team will be a ton of fun. Rob Wright and Collin Chandler play with their hair on fire. This will be another Top 10 pace team in the country under Kevin Young. Bruce Branch has really caught my eye in regards to how I view this BYU offense as a whole.
If Branch can spell Rob Wright as a play creator this effectively, the sky is the limit for this offense. Especially with the newly eligible Jaxon Kohler in the post. This was such a massive addition to the roster late in the cycle. It was really the only gap. He should have a massive year being fed by Wright, Branch & Chandler.
There is a significant gap on where KenPom ranks the Ohio State defense to my personal rankings. KenPom has the Buckeyes rated 26th defensively. I think this has a chance to be the worst in the short Diebler era. I also believe the pace of this team will increase following the departure of Bruce Thornton. KenPom has this team preseason 246th in tempo, but I suspect they will finish in the 175 range. I believe this KenPom defensive preseason rank, combined with the projected pace of Ohio State, is the reason why my number is much higher for this game.
I love the BYU offense & their tempo. I believe the Buckeyes will drop in their defensive level and play faster. Give us the over in Salt Lake City.
Score Prediction: BYU 86 – Ohio State 80
New Mexico -22.5 : This is one of my favorite mid-major teams this season. We locked them in to win the Mountain West, and we are going to back them to come out strong to start the 26/27 season.
Agreed, Ryan. Jake Hall is an absolute STAR. He is undoubtably the best player that is not in the P4. It is so cool that Eric Olen was able to retain him. This will be the last year that we see Eric Olen as the mid-major level as a coach. Enjoy it! The P4 will be pounding down his door after this season. Olen, in addition to Hall, was also able to keep his point guard, Uriah Tenette. Tenette is one of the more underrated players in the country. So solid as a defender & floor general. This backcourt is going to cause many, many problems for Utah Tech. It appears that Ethan Potter is going to be able to play for Utah Tech, but that is where the quality stops. This is a gross roster and I believe it will be a year trending towards the KenPom 300’s for Jon Judkins. This will be a blowout in The Pit to start the year. I missed the best number here, but my numbers still support it.
Score Prediction: New Mexico 90 – Utah Tech 62
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
