(photo: Samantha DeFily/The Daily Iowan)
Season Record: 3-3
Best Bet Record: 1-2
Not what we had hoped on Day 1. I felt damn good going into the day about our Best Bet dogs. They showed fight for a large majority of those games, but were outclassed when it mattered. The three wins we picked up were easy living. Hopefully, we can find more of those moving forward. I like two totals today (brief thoughts below). Neither are Best Bet level. We will save our next Best Bet for Friday on one that I have in the scope.
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11/3 Card :
- Wagner/Boston College over 142.5 (7:00pm ET – ESPN+) (Caesars)
I do not agree with the massive buy down on this total. I had this game around where the books opened at 147.5 so it was a stay away, but at this point it is time to step in. Luke Murray was the key assistant piece for the UConn offense during this incredible Dan Hurley tenure in Storrs. He is finally leaving the nest to spread his wings. It is apparent that he leaned heavily into his offensive philosophy when he constructed this roster. There are a lot of bucket getters, and not a lot of defensive pieces. It is going to take time for the defensive unit to gel. Wagner should be able to do enough to get us over the line against that defense & I think BC will have a big day offensively. Dwan McMillan’s defense & desired tempo when out the door when Wagner stepped up in competition in the non-con last year. Ex: 103-74 loss to VCU ; 92-75 loss to Georgetown ; 89-63 loss to Maryland. I don’t believe he has the pieces or scheme to slow down what should be a fun Boston College offense in Year 1 of Murray. Give me the over here.
Score Prediction: Boston College 84 – Wagner 64
- Lipscomb/Iowa over 145.5 (8:00pm ET – BTN) (DK)
Another one where I do not agree with a massive market move. Iowa’s 362nd tempo rank from a year ago + the 364th pace projection for this year + Lipscomb coming off of back-to-back are probably major factors in this buy down. I disagree. Ben McCollum showed in Year 1 at the P4 level that he will play a bit faster against inferior competition in the non-con. The offensive efficiency of his system also sky rockets against this level. The PPP in those games were absurd. The Hawkeyes averaged 92.1 ppg in their 7 non-con games against opponents that were rated 141st in KenPom or worse. More of the same today. I am not worried about the Lipscomb B2B impacting this total in the slightest. Non-factor for me. 2nd over of the night. Let’s sore some points.
Score Prediction: Iowa 87 – Lipscomb 63
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Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
