11/21 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: BVM Sports)

11/21 Card:

Gonzaga -12.5  (2:30pm ET – ESPN2)

Illinois State -1  (5pm – FloHoops)

Tennessee +3  (8pm – ESPN)

Marquette +5  (10:30pm – ESPN)

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Gonzaga -12.5 : The Zags gave Purdue one hell of a fight yesterday. They led for the majority of the 1H, but crumbled late in the 2H due to a flurry of open looks rimming out.

As you can see from the image above, there was only one big discrepancy in the game from the real score to the SQ score. It was the 2H for the Zags. Ryan Nembhard was a maestro in creating many open opportunities for his teammates against a great defense. I believe that he will find even more success today against a Syracuse defense that I do not believe in.

Graham Ike was super impressive yesterday. We loved him as a Cowboy, but it was great to see him excel on the big stage. He really showed the full package. Ike was able to stretch the floor and knock down two big time threes with Edey in drop coverage.

Ike gained the respect of Painter and they started to get out and cover him on the perimeter after that. This enabled the Zags to have a better chance to compete on the boards. They outrebounded the Boilermakers 13 to 8 on the offensive glass.

There will be little to no resistance from Syracuse against this high powered Gonzaga offense. The total is high, but it is for good reason. Zags win in blowout fashion.

Score Prediction: Gonzaga 87 – Syracuse 70

Illinois State -1 : Depth will be a huge factor in this back-to-back at the Gulf Coast Showcase. The Redbirds are deep. Illinois State is playing a 9-man rotation now that Darius Buford is healthy and back in the fold. It is quality depth as well. Any guess on who the 9th man off of the bench is? It is a 20+ min guy from the Big 10 a season ago. Jordan Davis has transferred over from Wisconsin but is buried on the bench behind this quality depth. Poindexter, Banks and Buford is as good as it gets for a lower tier mid-major backcourt. Malachi Poindexter (UVA transfer) is one of the most underappreciated shooters in the country. He was 94.5% from the stripe and 37.7% from distance as season ago for Illinois State.

High Point is really only getting production from 6 guys right now. They will have no choice but to dig into their bench today in a B2B scenario. The Redbirds should be able to pounce when they do.

Illinois State is also performing well in many metrics that I like to see from a mid-major team of this caliber. They are 33rd in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and 46th in the country in free throw rate. The Redbirds are also 53rd in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a complete team.

The market has not caught up with just how good this team is. Redbirds win by a few possessions. This is my Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Illinois State 73 – High Point 67

Tennessee +3 : As we mentioned earlier, Purdue was a bit fortunate to escape comfortably against Gonzaga yesterday. I understand that is a bit silly to say since they won by double digits. However, they were a few Gonzaga threes dropping away from being in a dog fight at the end of that game. Their performance on the defensive end gives me a lot of questions coming into today.

How will Fletcher Loyer compete against the likes of Knecht/Ziegler/Vescovi? He looked like a huge liability against the Gonzaga backcourt yesterday. That is not a big change from a season ago. His inability to compete on that end was a major reason for their late season collapse. Dalton Knecht will likely be his draw to start the game. Good luck, Fletcher.

Edey also struggled on the defensive end against Graham Ike for large portions of the game yesterday. I believe that Rick Barnes has a great blueprint to implement similar sets for Josiah Jordan-James today thanks to Mark Few.

I see this game as a PK on a neutral court. I will gladly take the three points. This bet is SQ Model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool:

Score Prediction: Tennessee 67 – Purdue 66

Marquette +5 : Man, do I love this team. The Golden Eagles support one another more than any group that I have seen in recent memory. Every pass, block, charge, steal, shot made, etc is celebrated by everyone else in the blue and gold. I truly believe that goes a long way in an MTE. When you are playing back-to-back days, sometimes you need a “pick me up” from your brothers to get you going when your energy tank is running low.

Marquette can also hoop to go along with their great chemistry. The emergence of David Joplin is so crucial to this team continuing their success from a season ago.

Joplin was 5-11 from distance yesterday against UCLA. Most of these threes were made at crucial points in the game. Having a knockdown shooter on the same team as Tyler Kolek is a problem for any defense. Kolek struggled during many parts of the game yesterday, but was still able to record 9 assists. His greatness truly is underappreciated.

I like Ighodaro’s chances to influence the Dickinson matchup in a positive way for Marquette. His athleticism will be a big problem for Hunter. If Ighodaro is able to stay at home and not bite at Dickinson’s post moves, then Marquette will be in good shape to push for a W. He has to stay out of foul trouble for the Golden Eagles to have a chance.

I do think Kansas wins a close one tonight, but this was a buy spot for me with Marquette at +5. I have this as Kansas -2.5 on a neutral. The value is too much to pass on an excellent team playing with this type of chemistry right now. The Golden Eagles have a punchers chance.

Score Prediction: Kansas 78 – Marquette 76

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

11/20 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Wisconsin Athletics)

11/20 Card:

Gonzaga/Purdue u155.5  (5:00pm ET – ESPN)

Wisconsin +3.5  (6pm – FS1)

Texas +5.5 (7pm – ESPNU)

New Orleans/Oklahoma State o145 (8pm – ESPN+)

UCLA/Marquette o138.5  (11:30pm – ESPN2)

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Zags/Purdue u155.5 : I have been extremely excited for this game since the preseason. It will be fun to see how this edition of Gonzaga stacks up against Purdue. The Zags and Boilermakers faced off last year in the Phil Knight Legacy tournament. Purdue spanked Gonzaga by a final score of 84-66. The total only reached 150 points even with 19 made threes in the game.

The pace will be in our favor again today. Purdue comes into this game ranked 142nd in possessions per game in this early season. That is elevated due to the level of competition faced to this point. The Boilermakers were 341st (out of 363) in possessions per game a year ago. They return essentially the same cast. Matt Painter will want to slow it down today and not get into a track meet with the Zags. Gonzaga’s offense is predicated on an up-tempo approach, but they only rank 221 in possessions per game this season. That is likely due to implementing many new faces. Let’s take advantage of that now from an under perspective.

I love our chances at going under this total due to Gonzaga not being up to full speed and Purdue trying to slow the game down. This play is Shot Quality model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder. Use Promo Code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month on a subscription.

Score Prediction: Purdue 77 – Gonzaga 72

Wisconsin +3.5 : This was a gift of a line from the oddsmakers in my opinion. I have Wisconsin as a one possession favorite on a neutral, so I will gladly take the points here.

The Badgers have their backs against the wall after a 2-2 start to the season. There was a ton of hype surrounding this team in the offseason due to Greg Gard returning his entire starting five. They have obviously underperformed, but the Badgers probably have faced the toughest gauntlet of a schedule so far this year. There is no shame in losing to Tennessee at home. The Vols have a legit Final Four caliber roster. There is also no shame in losing a true road game at Providence. I will continue to say that is the toughest road test in the country. SQ analytics actually show that Wisconsin had an implied 65% win percentage in that game based on the looks created. The crowd and momentum played a huge factor. There is no reason to panic on my preseason power rating on Wisconsin based off of these factors. I actually think the production that we are seeing from A.J Storr makes Wisconsin a bigger factor in the national landscape down the road than I did before the season started. I was unsure of what his role would be on this team, but he has earned big minutes and is providing great production. His athleticism will be a huge factor today.

We bet on UF against UVA in the opening week. It was a soul crushing late game loss. Florida had an opportunity to take the lead in the game on their last two offensive possessions, but turned the ball over carelessly in both situations. The Hoos were lucky to walk away with the win in that one. SQ data backs that up. Their implied win percentage was 18% based on the SQ score. I did not leave that game with a changed opinion on UVA. I still have them lower in my power ratings than the books do.

This game is going to be played at a slow pace tonight. It will be tight and will likely come down to the last possession either way. Getting the full +3.5 makes this one of my favorite bets of the season to this point. SQ model agrees with this. The model shows a 62.2-61.6 final in Wisconsin’s favor. This is my Best Bet. Badgers outright.

**Not related to gambling, but wanted to share this information because I was touched by this story while doing research on the game. Wisconsin is playing for a higher purpose tonight. They have recently received news that their former teammate, Walt McGrory, is facing a tougher battle than he ever has before with his cancer. Greg Gard started off his presser after the RMU game talking about Walt. That is how big of an impact he has made on his teammates and coaches in Madison. If you have the means, please donate to help Walt and his family at https://www.gofundme.com/f/walt-mcgrorys-fight-against-osteosarcoma.

Score Prediction: Wisconsin 64 – UVA 61

Texas +5.5 : The Texas performance yesterday probably led to 1-1.5 points baked into this line in favor of UConn. We will not fall into that trap. While it was obviously not ideal to have to hit a buzzer beater to knock off the mess that is Louisville, there is still reason to believe they can keep this one close today.

The Texas offense is one of the more impressive units that I have seen in the game this year.

These stat profiles show that the Longhorns are extremely efficient on that end of the court right now. They are also 2nd in the country in SQ PPP attacking the rim, 9th in the country in SQ PPP on catch & shoot 3’s, and 18th in the country in SQ PPP on off of the dribble 3’s. This offense will keep them in the game tonight.

This will be UConn’s first test of the season facing an offense of this caliber. I realize that they played IU yesterday, but that offense has been pathetic this season to put it lightly. The Huskies are still working a few new pieces into this system and I do not think their defense is elite just yet. It will get there, but not yet. While most metrics are showing that they are exceling on that end of the court, the Huskies actually have displayed one sign of vulnerability. They are 145th in the country in SQ PPP allowed in transition. Texas has the roster to exploit that. Even the bigs run the floor.

The Texas offense does enough for us to keep this one close. I think they have a punchers chance to win this game. I personally have a little Wisconsin/Texas ML parlay tonight. Hook ‘Em!

Score Prediction: UConn 74 – Texas 71

New Orleans/Oklahoma State o145 : I touted Jordan Johnson from New Orleans as one of the best shooters in the country in the preseason. I have not backed down from that stance. He is a sniperrrrrrrr

Johnson went for 31 (6-12 3pt) last time out against Loyola. He was a major reason why we backed the Privateers as a 15 point dog in that one and they almost pulled out an outright victory. I fear for their defense in a bigger way in this one, but Johnson’s ability to knock down shots against tough defenses gives me confidence that the Privateers score enough to get us over the total tonight.

The pace should also be in our favor. New Orleans loves to run and Oklahoma State can always get baited into a track meet. Especially in Stillwater. This bet is also SQ Model approved. Let’s score some points!

Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 81 – New Orleans 70

UCLA/Marquette o138.5 : Marquette is one of the few teams in the country who can force their tempo to the fullest no matter the opponent. This is due to having an All-American at the point. Tyler Kolek has one of the best outlet pass skillsets in the country. His ability to get the Golden Eagles in transition before the defense gets back is truly impressive.

This is a video of Kolek from a few years before he turned into an All-American. He has always had this skillset and has even improved on these abilities since then. I expect Marquette to use Kolek to get the Golden Eagles in transition often today. It would be beneficial for them to force the action instead of trying to succeed in the half-court. A large reason for that is Adem Bona’s ability to protect the rim. Marquette does not want to see him in the half-court often.

This play has been steamed in the market since I tweeted it out earlier. I still like it at the current number. I would not advise playing it over 141.5 though. Most of the value has been sucked out at this point.

Score Prediction: Marquette 75 – UCLA 69

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

11/16 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: 247 Sports)

Season Record: 17-13

11/16 Card:

CofC -1.5  (11:30am ET – ESPN+)

LSU +1.5  (4pm – ESPN2)

Oklahoma State/St. Bonaventure o135.5  (6:30pm – ESPNU)

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CofC -1.5 : This one is already live. Go Cougs!

Score Prediction: CofC 74 – Vermont 68

LSU +1.5 : I am not buying this overreaction in the market to LSU’s loss at the hands of Nicholls. I have LSU as a slight favorite on a neutral, so I am glad to jump in here and back the Tigers in a bounce back spot.

I am concerned about the loss of Malachi Smith for Dayton. Last year showed just how impactful he was, and I believe that his absence will be felt even more this season. The transfer portal really ate at the depth of this roster. There is really only a 6 man rotation for the Flyers right now. LSU is a physical team that will force their way to the free throw line. The Tigers are 18th in the country in free throw rate per Shot Quality analytics. Foul trouble for Dayton will be a factor today.

Let’s jump back to the LSU loss to Nicholls. This was a complete fluke. LSU went down 44-20 in the 1H and nearly came back and won the game. Nicholls had some very fortunate shots drop in the 1H to get that run started. As you can see below, LSU winning by double digits was the more likely outcome than an outright loss. SQ graded it as a 75-59 win for LSU with an implied win percentage of 92%. I feel comfortable in backing them today.

Score Prediction: LSU 70 – Dayton 66

OK State/Bonnies o135.5 : What an absolute heater we are on with totals. A 10-0 run to start the season! Let’s make it 11 tonight.

Transition buckets and free throws are going to be the key in going over the total tonight. Oklahoma State comes into tonight ranked 219th in the country in transition SQ PPP allowed, and St. Bonaventure comes in at 166th. This will be a point of emphasis tonight from Mark Schmidt and Mike Boynton.

Both defenses as a whole are severely underperforming out of the gate. The Cowboys surrendered 70 points to Sam Houston State last time out, and the Bonnies allowed 70 to Canisius in their most recent affair.

This bet is SQ model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool. Use promo code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month:

Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 71 – St. Bonaventure 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

11/14 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Lipscomb University)

Season Record: 13-11

11/14 Card:

Lipscomb/Tennessee Tech o146.5 (7pm ET – ESPN+)

Long Beach State +13 (10pm – MW Network)

App State +2.5 (10pm – Pac 12 Network)

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Lipscomb/Tenn Tech o146.5 : This is going to be a fun game for true Three Point Sniper followers. It is going to be bombs away from distance. Lipscomb comes into this game ranked 327th in the country in allowing high quality three point looks, and Tennessee Tech is even worse at 345th. Lipscomb is out to a hot start from distance this season. The Bisons have connected on 32 threes in 3 games. Tennessee Tech has been cold shooting the ball to start the year, but I expect them to heat up tonight with the lackluster Lipscomb perimeter defense. The Golden Eagles made 302 threes a season ago while shooting them at impressive clip of 36.4% as a team.

The pace will be in our favor tonight. Both teams ranked in the Top 100 in the country in possessions per game a season ago. This matchup was surprisingly low scoring last year year (which explains the Vegas line), but that was because of an off night offensively by both teams. The pace was still there to go over the total that we see tonight. The two programs also played the season prior and there was 165 points.

This play is supported by the SQ Model. When my thoughts align with the SQ model on a total, you know the drill. Let’s keep the undefeated total run rolling!

Score Prediction: Lipscomb 77 – Tennessee Tech 75

Long Beach State +13 : I am back to fade SDSU until the market properly prices them. Again, I still believe that the Aztecs are a phenomenal team. However, the market is still pricing them as if they are the same team from last year’s Final Four run. There was great vindication of this thought process when we bet BYU in their win against SDSU over the weekend.

Long Beach State can pack a punch. They walked into Chicago on Saturday night and picked up a huge road win over DePaul.

The Beach bring the toughness that you need to compete with San Diego State. The Traore brothers set the tone for this team in that department. They combined for 20 rebounds and 2 blocks in the win over DePaul. Continuing the defensive rebounding success will be huge tonight. They will need to build off of their hot start in that regard.

There is also a great balance in the scoring on this team. They have four players averaging double figures. The continuity in this roster is another reason why I am believing in this team to get us under the number tonight. They are returning the same starting 5 that they finished the season with last year.

I would be stunned to see Long Beach State pull off another upset, but I believe they can fight long enough to keep us under this number. I feel good about this one

Score Prediction: SDSU 77 – Long Beach State 68

App State +2.5 : Dustin Kerns and the Mountaineers will be pulling off the upset tonight in Corvallis. Wayne Tinkle and the Beavers have been susceptible to early season upsets (if you want to call them upsets) to mid-major programs. Since 2020, Oregon State has lost to Portland, Tulsa, Samford, Princeton, UC Davis, Portland State (twice last year lmao) in the opening months of the season. Many of these games were played on their home court.

Oregon State already ranks 314th in the country in turnover rate. That will be a major issue for the Beavers tonight if this trend continues. They are facing a Mountaineer team who is feasting on turnovers per usual:

As you can see above, travel will not be an issue for the Mountaineers. They have been in Oregon for several days. The team got to experience a Nike HQ tour and really had a lot of time to get their minds right after they blew a game they should’ve won against NIU. Just like with LBSU, App State brings back a hefty chunk of minutes from a season ago. That is crucial for me when backing a mid-major program on the road against a power conference team.

This play is SQ model approved. We both have App State in a close one.

Score Prediction: App State 70 – Oregon State 66

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

11/13 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: BC Athletics)

Season Record: 10-10

Season Best Bet Record: 1-5 (lmao)

11/13 Card:

The Citadel +4

ETSU/Butler u145.5

FGCU/Pitt o145

Rider/Nebraska u149.5

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Citadel +4 : The Blue Hose will be a welcomed sight for Ed Conroy and the Bulldogs. The Citadel has really challenged themselves to start the season. They opened up their year at NC State, and then faced Boston College in Charleston for their home opener. The Bulldogs were able to put a real scare into BC. It was a 1 point game with a minute and a half left. The 0-2 record is very deceiving.

I really love the balance of Citadel. Conroy was able to land Quentin Millora-Brown in the offseason. That is an insanely good portal grab for a program of their stature. Millora-Brown started 57 games in the last two seasons for Vanderbilt at center. He was serviceable in this first two games this year against ACC opponents, but games like tonight are where he is going to be able to flex his muscle as a legitimate power-conference big. He has a massive size advantage over everyone on Presbyterian. I expect a double digit rebound night and some easy put backs. The Bulldogs are also a year older in the backcourt. AJ Smith and Madison Durr appear to have taken a big step from their freshman seasons. Elijah Morgan is a great compliment to Durr & Smith with his ability to shoot the three. He was 4-8 from distance in the game against Boston College. Also, keep your eye on Winston Hill. He was one of the better players for Presbyterian in recent years. He is now following in the footsteps of his dad and playing at The Citadel. His dad and Ed Conroy are great friends from their playing days together in Charleston. I expect Hill to have a big night in his former gym.

This is power rating play for me. I have The Citadel as a 2 point favorite on a neutral, so I will gladly take the 4 here. I am not giving much advantage at all to the PC home court. This game should be a PK at worst, and I think The Citadel pick up their first win of the season. This is my Best Bet.

Score Prediction: The Citadel 69 – Presbyterian 67

ETSU/Butler u145.5 : We have experienced positive CLV in most of the games we have played this season, but this is one that has gone the other way on us a bit. The current number now sits at 147.5. The movement does not scare me on this one. I fully endorse taking the u147.5 if you have not made a play yet. If there is any more movement in that direction, I may double dip.

We touched on it in our first article of the season, but I want to reiterate that the interior defense for Butler is some of the best that you will find in the country. Jalen Thomas and Andre Screen are causing all kinds of problems for their mid-major level competition. The block numbers aren’t jumping off of the stat sheet, but they are holding their opponents to 38% finishing around the rim. That is elite. The backcourt is also doing a fantastic job locking down the opposing guards from the perimeter. Posh Alexander has been picking up the opposing PG from full court on almost every made basket for Butler. Not only is this disrupting the flow of the opposing offense, but it is also taking valuable seconds off of the shot clock. Posh’s press will be crucial to our under tonight.

This play is SQ Model approved. Below is the prediction for tonight’s game from the model. Use promo code “TPS” for a discount on a subscription to access great tools like this one!

Score Prediction: Butler 77 – ETSU 63

FGCU/Pitt o145 : With Isaiah Thompson back in the fold for FGCU, I am in full go mode on continuing to attack the market until their games are priced properly. We were able to cash a ticket in their opener against Indiana, and I see an edge on the total tonight.

The Eagles have one of the most complete offenses that you will find at the mid-major level. I will double down on my Night 1 article and say this is a tournament team. Isaiah Thompson is not a mid-major point guard. Pat Chambers did one hell of a job in getting him down to Fort Myers from Purdue a season ago. Thompson has a full compliment of weapons around him to make this offense hum. Chase Johnston is one of my favorite shooters in the country. His release is very quick, and he probably has the best “get hot” trait in the country. Dallion Johnson has also added an extra threat from distance. He came on the scene with a 5-11 3pt performance at Assembly Hall. Andre Weir and Zach Anderson also pack a punch in the paint.

I am also excited about Pitt this season. The main reason is Blake Hinson’s continuous improvement. He has taken the reigns of the offense and is becoming more efficient in the way he is attacking defenses.

Bub Carrington has also been a lightning rod in the backcourt. He earned All-ACC honors after an incredible first week in the college game.

I had this total at 149, so there is plenty of value at the current number. Sit back and enjoy some great offense tonight.

Score Prediction: Pitt 79 – FGCU 70

Rider/Nebraska u149.5 : This play is being placed strictly on pace. I understand that both programs added some very welcomed additions on the offense end of the ball, but the pace is too much to ignore. I see a massive edge on this one.

Rider finished last season 311th in possessions per game. It appears that they will try to play quicker this season with their new weapons, but still only sit at 108th in this young season. We also know that Fred Hoiberg runs a methodical offense at Nebraska. The Cornhuskers ranked 198th in possessions per game a year ago. I believe that the offense could run even slower this season. It is for a good reason if you are a Nebraska fan. The Huskers added Rienk Mast in the transfer portal. The 6’10 Bradley transfer is one of the most efficient bigs in the country. He is a player that ensures that his team is getting the best possible shot every time down the court. That is huge for us from a clock perspective. He is accustomed to a slower pace from his time at Bradley, and really likes to play a chess match with his defenders on his post moves and facilitating. He is an efficient scorer and will definitely score at will on an undersized Rider team, but I have a strong feeling he will help us drain this clock tonight.

This play is supported by the SQ model. I have also included snippets of the Game Page below. This was very close to a Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Nebraska 79 – Rider 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

11/9 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Arthur Ellis / CSU Sports)

Season Record: 4-2

Season Best Bet Record: 1-2

11/9 Card:

Charleston Southern -2

Western Kentucky +7.5

UCSB -8

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Charleston Southern -2 : Is this game as ugly as the Thursday Night Football game tonight on paper? Maybe. Is there an edge in this matchup? Certainly. There is always value in the crumbs. You may ask why we are backing a team that was 10-21 a year ago in their first meaningful game of this season. Fair question. While most programs in this scenario would lose any player of significance to the portal in the offseason, Barclay Radebaugh was able to retain three players who started at least 25 games a year ago. This includes Tajé Kelly (leader in rebounds) and RJ Johnson (leader in assists). Radebaugh was also able to secure DJ Patrick in the portal. The USF transfer was an absolute bucket in junior college, but was unable to carve out a role on the Bulls. Patrick had a breakout performance in his debut for the Buccaneers on Monday:

(ESPN)

While the opposition was nowhere near the D1 level, it was still a superstar performance in only 23 minutes of work. As you can see, Patrick got hot from distance. I can see that being a huge edge here tonight for the Bucs. A season ago, North Florida ranked 332nd in the country in allowing high quality looks from 3 per Shot Quality metrics. In addition, the Bucs were 66th in the country in open 3 rate.

I am not impressed at all with what Matthew Driscoll has done to reshape this Osprey roster for the 23/24 season. He lost his top five scorers, and replenished them by elevating his bench players and mixing in some portal guys. There is not a single portal addition that averaged over 5.6 ppg a season ago. Shot Quality also shows a very damning resume for the Osprey returners in many key areas that you have to have cleaned up to secure road wins:

(Use promo code “TPS” for a discount on a subscription to use these great tools!)

This line opened up at -1.5. I was lucky to grab a 2 before it elevated to -2.5. I see this game getting to 3 by tip. All of these numbers are good to play in my opinion. I would have Charleston Southern winning by 4 points on a neutral, so I see tonight as a 6 to 7 point victory on home court. This gym will likely be empty by the end of the December, but even these types of programs have a buzz in the gym to start the year. This is a Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Charleston Southern 76 – North Florida 69

Western Kentucky +7.5 : I am not seeing a huge disparity in these rosters for the 23/24 season. The Shockers have an incredible home court advantage, but that has inflated this line too far. Steve Lutz is in his first season with the Hilltoppers. He is one hell of a coach. This man is 2/2 on making the big dance in his time in Division 1 basketball. He won the Southland in both years that he was at Texas A&M CC, and won coach of the year in the conference last season. I also love what he did in the portal. A lot of coaches just focus on stats/analytics, but he also put an emphasis on bringing in players from winning programs.

Brandon Newman is a breakout candidate this year after coming over from Purdue. I believe that his has great potential as a dominant guard. Lutz also brought in Babacar Faye from CofC. We all remember the season that Pat Kelsey and his team had a year ago. I have seen Babacar play many times as a Charleston resident. Pat Kelsey likes to use a large rotation so he was unable to carve out a role over 15 minutes as a Cougar. This will be a big year for him with elevated minutes. He recorded a double double in WKU’s opener, and I believe that is just a sign of things to come for him.

This is more of a power rating play from me. I will not be diving deep into analytics for this one. Wichita State lost all of their double digit scorers from a season ago, and are also under a new head coach as well (Paul Mills – ORU). I believe it will take them a lot longer than a few days to be able to gel together enough to cover a spread this large against a quality WKU team.

Score Prediction: Wichita State 74 – WKU 69

UCSB -8 : Miles Norris is off to my Atlanta Hawks, but this Gauchos team is still primed for another tournament run. The main reason – Ajay Mitchell.

Mitchell will be one of the best point guards in the country all season long. It is also important that the Gauchos are going to be returning Josh Pierre-Louis with him in the backcourt. Pierre-Louis compliments his game so well, and they are always on the same page. There is also a major conference impact transfer that I am excited to see at the mid-major level. The Gauchos were able to bring in Yohan Traore from Auburn. He is a former 5-star recruit out of high school. Traore was unable to find solid footing under Bruce Pearl, but I am so damn excited to see what he can bring to one of the best mid-major programs in the country.

I am obsessed with the attention to detail on the defensive side of the ball in this program. A season ago they were 11th in the country in SQ Points Per Possession in the half-court, and 9th in the country in transition. That is as lockdown as it gets.

The coaching edge for UCSB in this one is so strong. Joe Pasternack has earned a tournament birth in 3 out of the last 4 years, and Jase Coburn is still searching for his first winning season at the D1 level. There will also be a huge home court advantage for this opener at The Thunderdome. This city is really rallying around this program and the NBA-level talent that they are producing. The Gauchos win in a comfortable double digit fashion.

Score Prediction: UCSB 78 – Portland State 66

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!

11/8 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Troy Athletics)

Season Record: 4-1

Season Best Bet Record: 1-1

11/8 Card:

Troy +9

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Troy +9 : I love this spot for the Trojans. If you don’t recall, Troy was one of the first teams to tip-off the season. They had a Noon opener against Fort Lauderdale (shout out NCCAA) on Monday. This allowed me to pop in and catch some action in a game that I normally would never even acknowledge. Troy excelled in two key areas of the game that you would expect a Scott Cross team. They played their patented pressure defense which forced many turnovers, and they also converted many of those turnovers into opportunities in transition. Troy was 41st in the country in forcing turnovers per SQ metrics a season ago, and they were 7th in the country in offensive transition frequency. This could be a very bad matchup for an Ohio team that does not spread the floor very well. Scott Cross is a fantastic coach. He has led the Trojans to back-to-back 20 win seasons. I fully expect him to pull out all of the tricks of his pressure defense for this matchup.

I was also really impressed with true freshman, Myles Rigsby, in transition. The dude is going to be a problem in the Sun Belt for years to come (portal pending). His athleticism in the open court really impressed me in the time that I was tuned into this game. Here is a clip of one of those finishes:

As we saw with FGCU, an underdog that can win the advantage from the perimeter has a fantastic chance of getting home with a number in this range. Troy is an excellent three point shooting team. They made 255 threes a season ago and return their top two shooters in Eugene and Muhammad.

Nine points is too many. I capped this as Ohio -4.5, so there is plenty of value here at the current number. This is a Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Ohio 75 – Troy 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

11/7 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: UNI Athletics)

Season Record: 3-0

Season Best Bet Record: 1-0

11/7 Card:

FGCU +12

Northern Iowa +5

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FGCU +12 : I believe that Dunk City is in a for a huge year. They are my pick to earn the NCAAT bid out of the A-SUN. Pat Chambers had this team flying out of the gates last year in his first season in Fort Myers. The Eagles knocked off Southern Cal (I will never refer to them as USC. Get over it. Go Cocks) in their opener last season in impression fashion. It was not a fluky result and was graded as a Shot Quality win also:

FGCU used this momentum to get out to a 12-3 record in their first 15 games. The team struggled down the stretch and didn’t reach their full potential, but I firmly believe it will be realized this season. Chambers is returning essentially his entire roster for this year. 13 upperclassmen. I think they could get out to another hot start this year, and there is an edge in this matchup that I believe will help this team settle in for a fight in Assembly Hall. Both the point guard and head coach are Big 10 veterans. Chambers spent close to a decade as the head coach of Penn State, and Isaiah Thompson was a Boilermaker for three seasons. This experience will be vital to carry the squad through a grueling night in one of the best home atmospheres in the country. I also see an edge on the perimeter for FGCU. Chase Johnston is one of the best shot makers that we have in the game. Johnston and his teammates made 295 threes a season ago. The Eagles return over 200 of those threes this season. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers connected on 187 … but only 46 of those makes are returning for this season. I am not impressed with the roster reconstruction in Bloomington following the departures of TJD and Hood-Schifino. I have a sneaky suspicion we will see a heavy dosage of Xavier Johnson hero ball. We all know how that experience turns out.

Isaiah Thompson is listed as a GTD (I am hearing that he is going to play), but this is still a play for me at 12 even in his absence. I would be shocked if the game ever stretches over 12 for Indiana. Should be a fun one.

Score Prediction: Indiana 74 – FGCU 66

Northern Iowa +5 : We locked this one in early last night, and it was for good reason. Buy. Stock. Now. Northern Iowa is one of my favorite mid-major rosters in the country this season. Everyone is back this year. With another year of experience under their belts, this team will be contending with Drake for a Valley championship. Let’s start at the point guard position. Bowen Born is one of the best PG’s in the country. Don’t believe me? Tune into this game tonight. His basketball IQ is second to none. He reminds me of a mixture of Tyler Ulis and Storm Murphy. He is an absolute gamer and will be up for this one. Also, the Panthers are getting the heart and soul of this team back. Nate Heise was lost for the year after the 2nd game of the season a year ago. They never were able to fill his shoes. He brings energy and intensity on both ends of the court and is a clear captain of the team. Tytan Anderson is another another impressive player on this roster. He could get minutes anywhere in the country on the wing. He picked up where he left off last season in UNI’s most recent scrimmage

If you have the recent successes of North Texas in your mind and it is making you shy away, don’t fret. This is not our usual North Texas team. Grant McCasland left the program to take the head coaching job at Texas Tech. Ross Hodge has been on staff, but we have seen how that has played out before. It does not always guarantee continuity in a program. Hodge has also never been at head coach at the D1 level. He has a tough matchup on his hands going up against the decorated Ben Jacobson in his first game at the helm. This coaching edge is a huge factor in my handicap tonight. The Mean Green also lost their pillars of the last few years to the portal. Tylor Perry and Abou Ousmane will be greatly missed on this roster. It does not appear that they properly replenished their scoring abilities through the portal.

I have Northern Iowa winning the game, and this is my Best Bet of the night. The Shot Quality model also agrees with me and has 5.6 points of perceived value on a UNI ticket at the current number of 4.

Score Prediction: Northern Iowa 67 – North Texas 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

23/24 Title Futures

(photo: Villanova Athletics)

WELCOME BACK TPS COMMUNITY!!!!

I am so excited to be entering into our 4th season together! There are big things ahead this season that I can’t wait to share with you guys. More details on what that will be are coming soon..

We are going to keep the same strategy as last year when it comes to title futures. That strategy is to pick two mid-long shots in the preseason and advance them as far as possible in the tournament, and then following that up with national title pick once the bracket is released in March. Last year we advanced our preseason Creighton and Texas tickets to the Elite 8 (dangerously close to Final Four births), and then cashed our national title winning pick of UConn +1600 when the bracket was released. All three tickets afforded our community members with hedging opportunities if they chose to do so, and it was topped off with the +1600 cherry on top as One Shining Moment played in Houston.

This year we have two very quality teams that we are going to hitch our wagon to. The numbers that they are priced at in the market are asinine to me. The value will be cut in half within the first month of the season I’d suspect. These two teams have a nice mix of veteran leadership in the post, combined with highly talented backcourts. Let’s get into it!

Villanova +4600 :

Villanova is the team that I am most excited about in the country. +4600 is a bonkers number that the books are exposing themselves to. Everyone is asleep on the Wildcats after a lackluster first year under Kyle Neptune. Many pundits think that the magic left with Jay Wright. However, I don’t think these pundits were paying attention as closely as they should have at the end of the year. When Neptune was able to plug Justin Moore back into his starting five, the defense elevated to what we are used to seeing from the Wildcat program. Nova won 6 out of their last 8 regular season Big East games; including wins over Creighton and Xavier who had deep tournament runs. The only losses came at Providence (arguably the toughest place to play in the Big East) and against the national title winning, UConn Huskies. I believe that Neptune is the right man for the job. I am excited to back him this season.

The transfer portal class walking through the door is the top group in the country in my opinion. Villanova is adding TJ Bamba (Washington State), Hakim Hart (Maryland), Lance Ware (Kentucky), & Tyler Burton (Richmond). I am so excited to see Tyler Burton playing for a big time program. He is one of the mid-major players that I have admired the most over the last few years. He averaged 36.2 minutes per game last season and that resulted in the following stat line: 19.0 ppg – 7.4 rpg – 1.5 spg. His three point percentage dipped a bit, but he shot better than 36% in his previous two seasons. I suspect that the form from distance will return. He can stuff a stat sheet, but his athleticism as a defender and rebounder is where I think he will be a huge difference maker for this Wildcat team. I am also excited for the addition of TJ Bamba. Villanova lacked a true point guard last season. They have one in Bamba. I am excited for him to get into the Neptune/Villanova system. We know that he can score inside and out with his 6’5 frame, but I believe there is a lot to unlock with his facilitating. Hart and Ware will be welcomed additions to Eric Dixon in the paint. This team should be excellent on the glass, and will be a Top 20 defensive team. Book it.

At a +4600 number, you really just need a team to make it to the Sweet 16 if you are aiming to hedge. I believe this team has real Final Four potential, and this may be my favorite preseason future that I have ever placed based on the value. I believe that Villanova will compete for the Big East title this season, and will squarely be on the 2 or 3 line.

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Saint Mary’s +4700 :

It is Aidan Mahaney – Naismith Player of the Year – SZNNNNNN!! With the departure of Logan Johnson, this is fully Mahaney’s backcourt now. Randy Bennett is a wizard in development in the offseason with his guards. The freshman to sophomore bump is usually massive. Coming off of a 13.9 ppg freshman year, I believe that Mahaney is in line to exceed 20+ ppg this season. Mahaney has two key veterans returning with him this year in Alex Ducas and Mitchell Saxen. Ducas is one of the better on-ball defenders in the country, and Saxen has been a constant force on the glass during his time with the Gaels. There is belief that Augustus Marciulionis is going to move into the backcourt with Mahaney now that Johnson is gone. He will not bring as much offensive firepower, but he is on that short list of top on-ball defenders in the country with Ducas. This team is going to be hell to score against.

https://x.com/ltu_basketball/status/1683537318148227084?s=20

Ignore the missed bunny, but this is the type of pressure that you will expect to see from Marciulionis this season. The Gaels earned a 5 seed into the tournament last year with a 27-7 record. Many thought they could have cracked the 4 line. I suspect that their record will be better this season. They welcome Utah and New Mexico into Moraga, and really don’t play any tough out of conference road tests. They have a few big neutral site games, but I would have them winning all of them outside of Boise State in what I would consider a toss up. That is going to be a slugfest. Can I go ahead and take the under? Assuming they take care of business in conference as they did last year, I think we could be looking at more of a 4 or 5 loss team entering the NCAA tournament, and competing with Gonzaga for the regular season WCC title. That would have us in the range of a 3-4 seed. I think that a 3 seed is the most likely outcome for the Gaels this year. If you are going to give me a +4700 ticket on a team that will be pushing the 30 win mark, I will gladly add that to my portfolio.