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1/31 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Sports Illustrated)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 132-105

Season Best Bet Record: 49-26

1/31 Card:

WVU/TCU u144

UK -6.5

Loyola/Dayton o129.5

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WVU/TCU o144 : The Mike Miles injury will loom large on this pace tonight. Especially, against a Top 100 defense that West Virginia will be bringing to Fort Worth. The Horn Frogs will also have to rely on defense for success in his absence. That won’t be hard to do. TCU ranks 10th in the country in defensive efficiency. Also, they are the 6th best home defense in the country in regards to defensive efficiency. WVU has been very reliant on the scoring of Erik Stevenson lately. They are a cold night from him away from scrapping and clawing for 60 points against this elite Horn Frog defense. In TCU’s four Big 12 home games, they are averaging allowing 62 ppg. Without Miles they will struggle to score as well. This bet is Shot Quality approved. Per the Value Finder, they have this at a 137 total. Below is a screen clipping of how their Value Finder looks. Some free nuggets if you are planning on creating a heavy card tonight. Enjoy!

Score Prediction: TCU 70 – West Virginia 69

UK -6.5 : Best Bet of the night! Cats by 90. But seriously, this should be a wire-to-wire no sweater tonight. This Kentucky team is completely different now that Cason Wallace has taken over the point guard reigns. They had four impressive wins in a row (including one in Knoxville), before having a primetime battle with Kansas over the weekend. The Cats ultimately lost that game, but they were in it until the very end. That is a sign of how far they have come in such a short time. Cason was fantastic on Saturday night. He had 14 points / 6 rebounds / 5 assists / 5 steals. Maybe more importantly, only two turnovers! That is elite point guard play against a Top 5-10 team in the country. He will be licking his chops for a matchup against this horrific Ole Miss team. Also, Big O should have another dominant affair against Ole Miss. Last season he had 18 & 15 on 9-12 shooting. They have very little resistance to offer in the post, and Toppin should be able to take advantage of this as well. There are big question marks on both starting Rebel backcourt pieces tonight. Murrell is still dealing with an injury, and Ruffin was left at home over the weekend because he is “going through things” per Kermit. We will see if they play tonight. If they don’t, this is the biggest gift of a spread this season. I still love the play if they give it a go.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 75 – Ole Miss 62

Loyola/Dayton o129.5 : The Loyola defense has lost it’s identity under Valentine. They are averaging 72.1 points allowed per game this season, and it has elevated to a 75.8 average over their last five. Dayton’s phenomenal defense has also taken a hit over their last five. They allow 60.3 ppg for the season, but are averaging allowing 66.8 over their last five. While the defense has suffered for the Flyers, they have had a positive uptick offensively. Malachi Smith is now back healthy and had 13 assists (!!!) in their last outing. Kobe Elvis is also healthy again and has added some much needed perimeter shooting. I like the poor trends of the defenses, paired with the resurgence of the Dayton offense. We go over this total at UD Arena.

Score Prediction: Dayton 74 – Loyola 60

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/27 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Rachel Von)

Season Record: 126-96

Season Best Bet Record: 47-24

1/27 Card:

IPFW +4

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IPFW +4 : Best Bet of the night! These two teams faced off just 11 days ago. The game was played in Fort Wayne, and Cleveland State walked away with a 12 point victory. The interesting part about that night is that the Mastadons were a -5.5 favorite at close. In 11 days, how are we looking at a 9.5 point swing in the spread when switching home courts in the Horizon? There are no injuries on the IPFW side, and a lot of their guys are finally starting to heat up. This seems like Vegas baiting casuals into a bad position on Cleveland State since they won by 12 points recently. I had this spread as IPFW -1.5, so I will gladly take the 5.5 points in my perceived value. The Mastadons led in the 2H of that game, and were pretty on par statistically with the Vikings. IPFW made more threes, shot and made more free throws, and virtually were the same on rebounds & turnovers. The Mastadons just had a tough night from the field. I like them to even the season series tonight. There is an area of attack that IPFW will likely go with tonight. Volume shooting from the three point line. The Mastadons rank 18th in the country in made threes per game, and the Vikings rank 351st while only shooting 30%. IPFW will certainly try to trade 3s for 2s in this one. The threes didn’t drop at a high rate in the first matchup, but I suspect IPFW has 10+ made threes tonight. Deonte Billups has really heated up from distance since this last matchup. He had his career high last time out against IUPUI. He scored 26 points on 7-12 shooting from distance. I know that IPFW will win the three point battle, and I think they will win the free throw shooting battle again tonight as well. The Mastadons have the best FT shooter in the country in Bobby Planutis. He is 97.2% from the stripe on the season. Also, that is NOT the only 90%+ free throw shooter on the team! Jarred Godfrey is shooting 91.2% at the guard position. These guys can close out a tight game. Lastly, I think the Mastadons can compete on the boards again. Kpedi has been phenomenal on the glass as of late. This includes gobbling up 9 offensive rebounds against this same Cleveland State team 11 days ago. I think the Mastadons win the three point and free throw shooting battle, and are able to compete on the glass. If they do those three things, they win. This Best Bet is Shot Quality approved. Their model has IPFW as a .4 favorite. Let’s cook!

Score Prediction: IPFW 70 – Cleveland State 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/26 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Daily Bruin)

Season Record: 122-95

Season Best Bet Record: 46-24

1/26 Card:

MTSU +9

Iowa +3

UCLA/USC o131

Michigan +5.5

Arizona -4

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MTSU +9 : The FAU price in the market is still way too overvalued in my opinion. I got burned backing WKU against them last week, but I will step back in for this spot to hopefully cash in on this absurd price. The Owls should not be 9 point favorites to MTSU on any court in the country. I just don’t see it. The Blue Raiders are 18th in the country in defensive efficiency in their last three games. This stretch includes impressive wins over UAB, Charlotte and LaTech. They are lengthy and athletic across the board, and love “big game hunting”. Also, MTSU owned this matchup last season with two convincing wins. A lot of the same cast returned for both teams. FAU is a fireball straight up & ATS, but we are going to put out that flame tonight. This game will be within two possessions.

Score Prediction: FAU 70 – MTSU 64

Iowa +3 : I really like the Hawkeyes in this spot. Iowa’s offense is in elite form, and I believe that Sparty will struggle to score with them. Without Malik Hall, I think Michigan State will have a terrible time with Kris Murray. Kohler and Hauser are not athletic enough for the matchup, and Sissoko would really struggle defending Murray on the perimeter if he takes on the role. The Hawkeyes also have their sharp shooter going as of late. Payton Sandfort is 12-22 from 3 in his last four games. It is significant improvement from the beginning of the season, and he is finally playing like the guy we all thought he could in the preseason. Sparty is a team that you can bait into a jumping shooting war with you. Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard are not shy about getting off their shots. Iowa has the better shooters if this turns into a shooting contest. Also, Michigan State showed significant cracks in their armor on their trip to Bloomington last time out. TJD, who has a similar game to Murray, had 31 & 15 on their frontcourt. They also struggled to defend the three point line. They allowed the Hoosiers to shoot 60% from three. These are two key areas where Iowa has an advantage tonight. I had this as a PK, so I will take the three points.

Score Prediction: Iowa 73 – Michigan State 72

UCLA/USC o131 : Best Bet of the night!! We look like we are on the way to some big time CLV in this one. This total moved from 131 to 134 in a matter of 15 minutes. Some heavy money rolling in on the over after we locked this in. Is the market taking notice of the Three Point Sniper Best Bet?! Kidding (kinda). I had this total at 137.5, so there is some significant value to the number that we locked in earlier. For those who are reading this now and are having to lock in 134… yes, I still condone the play. Vegas closed this total at 137.5 earlier this season in the matchup at Pauley. It did not come anywhere close to that number with a 118 final. I thought that 137.5 was a fair number for that game, and we can see that the market is driving this total back up near that number today. The first game was a bit fluky. UCLA was on 50 points with 15:52 to go in the 2H. They finished with 60 points. Southern Cal also sat on 4 points from the 17:39 mark to the 11:38 mark in the 1H. There were significant dry spells by both teams in the game, however the scoring was pretty back and forth outside of those stretches. I know UCLA will get theirs tonight, but I have been really impressed with the resurgence of the Trojan offense. Their backcourt eviscerated Arizona State in Tempe last time out. They scored 77 points in a big time road win. They were also 14-14 from the stripe. Which is important, because I think we see a physical game tonight. Trust me on this one.. and if you don’t .. trust the line movement. We are going over tonight. This total is Shot Quality approved. Head over to their matchup breakdown for more insight into their numbers!

Score Prediction: UCLA 71 – USC 67

Michigan +5.5 : This line should have been set at +3.5, so I will take the value. The Wolverines DOMINATED in this spot last season. Purdue was #3 in the country coming to Ann Arbor vs an unranked Michigan team. The Wolverines walked away with an emphatic 82-58 victory. Purdue is coming in ranked as the #1 team in the country today. Michigan will be fired up again for another upset win to start their road to an at-large bid. Dickinson dominated Edey in last season’s matchup with 22 points and 9 rebounds. Hunter always gets up for the big game/matchup, so I believe we will see his best version tonight. Purdue has also not been fantastic on the road in conference play. 3 point win in Lincoln, 2 point win in Columbus, and 1 point win in East Lansing. They could have lost all three of these games. It is a sign of a great team to come out with the win in all of them, but it it is still concerning that they don’t have the extra gear to get away from teams on the road. I think Purdue wins tonight, but 5.5 points is a bit too high. Jett Howard is questionable, but I am hearing that he will be a go. Play with caution if his absence will affect your read. I still like Michigan tonight regardless.

Score Prediction: Purdue 70 – Michigan 68

Arizona -4 : Wazzou will not run the double on Arizona tonight. The Cougars handed the Wildcats their only loss at the McKale Center this season. Tommy Lloyd will have his guys fired up to go on the road and get payback for that defeat. Arizona will be just too much in the post for the Cougars. The Wildcats had 19 offensive rebounds in the first matchup. There is no answer for Ballo and Tubelis on the Washington State roster on the glass. Gueye is a nice player, but he is often in foul trouble. Also, he has had two stinkers of outings in two of his last three games. Wazzou had the benefit of Arizona’s worst shooting game of the season, & combined that with hitting 12 threes. It was an outlier performance, and I suspect that Arizona will get payback tonight. 4 was too short at the open. I would still play up to -5.5.

Score Prediction: Arizona 77 – Washington State 69

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/25 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Texas Tech Athletics)

Season Record: 121-93

Season Best Bet Record: 46-23

1/25 Card:

WVU/TTU o139

South Carolina +16

Louisville/BC o131.5

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WVU/TTU o139 : Getting the Best Bet out of the way early tonight! 139 is too low for this matchup in Lubbock. I had this at 146, and with 7 points of perceived value this is a no doubt Best Bet for me. I believe that we will have an exponential amount of free throws shot in this game. West Virginia is 332nd in the country in opponent free throw attempts this season. They allow 22.2 FTA per game. With a Texas Tech team that likes to drive and force the issue, I definitely see a high volume night at the stripe for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is not absolved of this issue either. Their opponent free throw attempts have taken a MAJOR uptick in conference play. They have allowed 69 free throw attempts in their last three outings. West Virginia should find themselves at the line quite often as well. Also, I believe we will have the pace we need tonight. Both teams are Top 100 in pace in their last 5, and Texas Tech loves to get up and down in Lubbock. They are 72nd in the country in home pace. I see this as a highly competitive and close game. This is an absolute “must win” for both ball clubs. We should see some freebie FTs at the end of this game caused by the desperate team that is staring down another Big 12 loss. Pace & free throws. Sign me up.

Score Prediction: Texas Tech 75 – West Virginia 71

South Carolina +16 : Listen, South Carolina sucks. As an alum, I can easily admit that & probably beat the drum on that more than most. However, Florida should not be laying 16 points in conference play. Florida has not beaten a team by 16 in over a month, and they have not achieved that feat in conference play yet. Florida allowed Mississippi State and Texas A&M to dictate the pace in their last two outings. The Gators scored 52 & 61 points in those games. Mississippi State ranks 323nd in pace & Texas A&M ranks 203. The Gamecocks come into this game ranked 298th. I can see Florida succumbing to this flow for a third straight game. If so, we have an excellent shot of covering 16 points in a low possession game. The Gamecocks have two expendable bodies down low that they can use to be physical with Castleton tonight in Josh Gray and Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk. Limiting him will be huge to the spread. Also, I am not sure if the national audience noticed but GG Jackson appears to have found his early season form again. He gave Auburn 30 points on 10-21 shooting over the weekend. He also tossed in 8 rebounds. Jackson is a guy that can get hot and keep us within this number. Lastly, the Gamecocks have been decent about not turning over the basketball. They are middle of the pack in the country (183rd), which is a lot better than their record would suggest. That will be crucial to keep this game within the number. This bet is Shot Quality approved. The guys over there have this as a +14 spread.

Score Prediction: Florida 70 – South Carolina 58

Louisville/BC o131.5 : These defenses are horrific. Louisville has given up 79.5 ppg in their last four, and Boston College has allowed 79.3. We are not dealing with efficient offenses tonight, but both of these teams are getting punished in transition. Louisville averages 16.5 turnovers per game, and Boston College will take a lot of those the other way with their athletic backcourt. Also, Quinten Post is in BEAST mode right now since his return from injury. He just had 29 & 14 in South Bend, and will be licking his chops for a shot at this Louisville team with zero interior resistance. I think Boston College can easily touch 70+ tonight. Louisville will take care of the rest against a struggling Eagles defense.

Score Prediction: Boston College 75 – Louisville 62

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/24 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: The Oklahoman – Bryan Terry)

Season Record: 118-93

Season Best Bet Record: 45-23

1/24 Card:

Ohio State/Illinois u145

Missouri +1.5

OU/TCU u138

UNC -4

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Ohio State / Illinois u145 : I think the defense will stand up tonight in Champaign. The Illini have the 14th best defense in the country in accordance with defensive efficiency rankings. That improves even more in front of their home crowd. They are 8th in the country in home defensive efficiency. This is on par with the Tennessee’s, Rutgers’, & Houston’s of the world. Elite stuff that goes unnoticed due to the short comings of the results of Illinois this season. The Buckeyes also have the itch to get into iso-ball on occasion. That will not fly tonight against an Illinois defense littered with elite on-ball defenders. Zed Key’s health is also a question mark. He is a game-time decision. The Buckeyes desperately rely on him for interior scoring and offensive rebounding. I could see Ohio State really struggling to score if he is out or limited. Ohio State pitched some nice road defensive performances their last time out as well. 63 points in Lincoln, and 57 points in regulation at The Rac. I suspect a physical Big 10 battle tonight. I don’t see both teams touching 70.

Score Prediction: Illinois 72 – Ohio State 68

Missouri +1.5 : Feed me this rat poison. This line makes zero sense, and I am walking into a trap .. but I have this as Missouri -4.5. I simply cannot ignore it. If the line was more reasonable, this would be the Best Bet. I do have trepidation because of the shocking line. However, there has been a recent flip in line movement over the last hour. We are now seeing Missouri -1. This is more than likely due to the growing belief that Kobe Brown will be active for the Tigers, and that Matthew Murrell will miss tonight’s game for Ole Miss. I personally feel that is a death sentence for the Rebels if Murrell is unable to go. Mizzou has a really poor defense, but Ole Miss will not be able to take full advantage of that without Murrell. He is their only scorer in double digits, and this is a team that ranks 255th in offensive efficiency WITH Murrell. Mizzou still remains one of the better offenses in the country and they come in ranked 16th in offensive efficiency. There will be too much of a disparity in the abilities of the offenses. Tigers get it done tonight.

Score Prediction: Missouri 73 – Ole Miss 68

OU/TCU u138 : Best Bet of the night!! The same type of home spot as we were discussing for Illinois earlier. The Horn Frogs are 16 in the country in defensive efficiency, and improve to 10th in regards to home defensive efficiency. I really like their chances of keeping Oklahoma under 65 points tonight. OU’s offense is really sputtering in their last two outings. They scored 56 on the road in Stillwater, and then followed that up with 60 at home against Baylor. Porter Moser is a great coach and will be aware of that trend. He knows that TCU is running in transition a lot more this season, and that he will need to slow this game down into the half-court for his offense to have a chance to win this game. Luckily, that is the scheme that the Sooners are most comfortable with. They rank 340th out of 363 teams in the country in pace. The Sooners will make this a crawl, and I think their defense can *limit* the Horn Frogs. They are Top 100 in defensive efficiency. Not great, not terrible. It is likely that Eddie Lampkin Jr. misses this game for TCU. That is also huge for OU/the under. He could have really impacted this game in the post on the offensive side of the ball, as well as on the offensive glass. These teams don’t rely on the three ball, which is another feather in our cap. TCU ranks 338th in the country in made threes per game, and OU ranks 237th. A lot of signs point to our under. This is also Shot Quality approved. This is one of their top total plays of the night on their value finder. The guys over there have this as a 126 point total. Have to love when great minds come together. Leave us the hell alone OT. Go defense.

Score Prediction: TCU 70 – OU 62

UNC -4 : I had this at -6.5, so some decent value in favor of the Heels. I think this will be a breakout game for Pete Nance in a Carolina uniform. Hubert Davis publicly said that he had a meeting with Nance last week to tell him that the Heels needed more urgency and aggressiveness in his game to get UNC where they want to be. There will be no better time for that to start than facing the Syracuse zone. Nance will be the point man near the free throw stripe in the middle of the Orange’s 2-3 patented zone. He is an excellent passer, and has a phenomenal mid-range jumper. I think he has the ability to leave a big mark on this game tonight. I also love the chances of RJ Davis hurting the Orange from deep. You have to shoot the three well to knock off Syracuse, and RJ Davis is shooting the lights out right now. He has hit at 50% or better in 6 straight games (18/32 from 3). Bacot has also found his groove again on the glass. 50 rebounds in his last three outings. I think the Tar Heels are about to hit their stride just like last season. Trust them tonight.

Score Prediction: UNC 79 – Syracuse 72

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/23 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: AP – Jerry Larson)

Season Record: 115-93

Season Best Bet Record: 44-23

1/23 Card:

Virginia Tech -2

Baylor -1.5

Alabama A&M +2.5

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Virginia Tech -2 : The Hokies are on an L7 and facing an absolute “must win” for their tournament at-large hopes at this point. It has been a rough go. However, this team has taken a significant upswing since the return of Hunter Cattoor two games ago. They fought hard for a long time with UVA last week, but were on the unfortunate end of one of the Cavs better performances of the season. The Hokies then followed that up with a heart breaking loss at Clemson. The Hokies were up 2 in Little John with 13 seconds to go. We finally thought this was going to be the game. However, Hunter Tyson banged a three after an excellent shot fake… and that was all she wrote. Tonight is the night that the Hokies get rewarded for their better play of late. This young Duke team simply has not been good on the road in the ACC. The have a 1-3 conference road record, and barely scraped by with a 1 point win in Chestnut Hill for their only victory. Duke is feeling good about themselves after a great home victory over Miami, and the Hokies are DESPERATE for a win. Trusting Mike Young to dismantle Scheyer schematically in this one. Hokies get it done.

Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 72 – Duke 67

Baylor -1.5 : Best Bet!!!! Not sure why the Jayhawks are taking money today, but glad to have locked in -1.5. I see it is now back up to -2. Good to play it to -3.5 (although it will never get that high). Baylor will win this game by more than one possession. These are two teams on completely different trajectories in the Big 12. Kansas was playing with fire earlier in the month after barely squeaking by OU and Iowa State, and then followed those games up with two losses. Including a 23 point drubbing at Allen Fieldhouse by TCU. Meanwhile, the Bears finally have gotten healthy in the backcourt and have won four Big 12 games in a row. There won’t be many 4 game win streaks in that conference this season. Flagler and Cryer’s health are so important to this team. Dale Bonner was a massive liability to this rotation, and he was limited to 6 total minutes in their last two victories. Another reason for this win streak is the elite scoring of Keyonte George. He scored 32 points on on 10-18 shooting in Morgantown, and also had a 27 point outing in Lubbock. This three headed backcourt should score effectively tonight, and I like Jalen Bridges’ chances of *limiting* Jalen Wilson. The Bears are 114th in the country in defensive efficiency, but that number significantly improves in Waco. They are the 42nd best home defense in the country. Baylor has a great homecourt advantage (shout out Chip Gaines), and will continue their win streak tonight. This bet is also Shot Quality approved. They have this as a Baylor 3 point victory. Below is a preview of their matchup breakdown.

Score Prediction: Baylor 76 – Kansas 70

Alabama A&M +2.5 : The Bulldogs get right tonight at home. I have this game is a PK on a neutral, so I will gladly take the 2.5 points in a home spot. The shooting in this game tonight has a glaring disparity. Alabama A&M continues to be one of the better three point shooting teams in the country at 38.4%. Prairie View A&M comes into this matchup ranked 362nd out of 363 teams in the country in 3pt% at 26.5%. The Panthers are also dreadful from the field. They are only shooting 40% as team. Prairie View turns the ball over, only averages 10.6 assists per game, and can’t shoot. I can’t figure out for the life of me why they are favored on the road tonight. Alabama A&M outright.

Score Prediction: Alabama A&M 68 – Prairie View A&M 66

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/20 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: KTVB)

Season Record: 108-88

Season Best Bet Record: 43-21

1/20 Card:

VCU -1

Boise State/New Mexico u146

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VCU -1 : Gave this one out last night. I can understand the line flip to VCU +1. A lot of the major tout outlets have Richmond favored tonight. Mostly of them see it as Richmond -2. I am not sure what they are looking at to lead them to believe Richmond should be laying a number here. VCU took 2 out of 3 in this inner-city matchup last season. It took a heroic Jacob Gilyard effort in the A-10 Championship for the Spiders to notch a win against the Rams. Bad news for Richmond tonight. Jacob Gilyard isn’t walking through that door. Richmond is going to be in major trouble tonight without a dominant point guard. Their team lead in assists is 2.8 per game from their 7′ 260lb center. VCU cooks up their opponents and forces the 7th most turnovers in the country. This leads them into being the 24th most efficient team in transition. That is bad news for a Spiders team who currently ranks 274th in in opponent percentage of shots in transition (24%). Richmond will not be able to combat this onslaught of turnovers and transition points of the Rams as they only rank 295th in turnovers forced. The Rams athleticism also caused a major problem for Tyler Burton last season. He was 7-28 from the field in the three outings. Lastly, there is not much home court given here in my cap. These arenas are usually 60/40 in favor of the home side when this matchup happens. There will be enough Rams fans in attendance to get them going when they are playing well. VCU in a fun one.

Score Prediction: VCU 69 – Richmond 64

Boise State/New Mexico u146 : Best Bet of the night! One of my favorite totals of the season. I think tonight will be a masterclass from Leon Rice. He will want this pace to be a crawl. The Broncos come into this game ranked 246th in pace, and know that a half-court game will be crucial for their chances of upsetting the Lobos at The Pit. On the surface level, everyone sees New Mexico as this very high scoring team that is having a fantastic season. However, a lot of this scoring is in transition from baiting an up & down game with inferior opponents. The Lobos are actually one of the worst jump shooting teams in the country in the half-court. New Mexico ranks 324th in three pointers made per game at only 5.7. This is a Boise State defense that packs the interior and loves forcing their opponents into tough mid-range jumpers and three pointers. I think this is a crucial edge for our total. Also, these defenses just rock. Boise State is 12th in the country in defensive efficiency this year. That is elite. New Mexico’s defense isn’t too shabby either. 52nd in the country in defensive efficiency. Shot Quality does not have as much conviction as me on this under, but that is the play their model suggests as a 143 point total. Below is a preview of their Value Finder (free gift of Kent St/Ball St – I’m a man of the people). Use promo code – SNIPER – for 30% off of all membership packages. The Shot Quality guys have great stuff. Very useful when handicapping. I have this at 137. 9 points of perceived value. Big time play for me. Let’s bring this one home!

Score Prediction: Boise State 69 – New Mexico 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/19 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Petre Thomas – USA Today)

Season Record: 107-87

Season Best Bet Record: 42-21

1/19 Card:

Charlotte/MTSU u126

Troy PK

Michigan/Maryland o142

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Charlotte/MTSU u126 : Best Bet of the night! Vegas is trying to attract some sucker money on the over here. They had a 125 number on this matchup earlier in the season, and the total ended on 149. They are tossing virtually the exact same number out there again today. You know what to do. Under is the play. I will jump into some analytics to back this up for you. Charlotte wants to play about as slow as you can possibly play in the shot clock era. They are 360th out of 363 teams in pace. They have a few outliers that are keeping them out of the cellar. MTSU won’t try to pull them out of this sluggish pace, as they are only 210th in pace. I am pretty confident that we see a low possession affair tonight. Also, these defenses rock. Charlotte has been a Top 80 team in defensive efficiency all season, and MTSU is trending that way after ranking 70th in their last three games (including OT win vs UAB). The Blue Raiders have one of the most athletic defenders in the country in Teafale Lenard Jr. He is averaging 1.6 steals and 1.9 blocks per game as a guard. These offenses are prime to struggle tonight. MTSU is a horrific jump shooting team, and as you can see below .. Charlotte is due for some major regression across the board on their shooting analytics per data from Shot Quality. We cruise under this total here.

Score Prediction: MTSU 61 – Charlotte 58

Troy PK : This Trojan defense is fantastic. They are the 58th best defense this season in regards to defensive efficiency, and are rate as the NUMBER ONE defense in the country in their last three outings. The most impressive part of that stat is that two of them were on the road. I will gladly back that defense in a PK home spot against a JMU team that has been sputtering as of late. The Dukes come in losing 3 of their last 4. Also, I think Troy’s offense could find some success against the Dukes’ ability to defend jumpers Here is a Shot Quality stat to back that up: “Troy’s Off the Dribble 3PT Frequency is 91. In 2022 they were 3-1 ATS against teams ranked between 211-280 at defending this play-type. James Madison ranked 220”. Troy in a close one.

Score Prediction: Troy 71 – JMU 67

Michigan/Maryland o142 : We saw a high possession affair in the first outing, and I believe we will get another one today. The Wolverines rank inside the Top 100 in pace, and the number would be much higher had they not played a ton of pace killers this season. The Wolverines have a really, really bad defense. This should entice the Maryland backcourt to force the issue tonight behind their rocking home crowd in College Park. Hunter Dickinson should absolutely eat tonight. He takes the Maryland matchup personal due to his high school days being spent at DeMatha. He unloaded on Maryland in the first matchup to the tune of 32 & 12. He should be in line for another big outing tonight. It appears that Donta Scott is dealing with the flu and could miss this one. This is not great news with the Terps already being down Patrick Emilien in the frontcourt. There are paths for points on both sides tonight, and I think the pace will be in our favor. Take the over.

Score Prediction: Michigan 74 – Maryland 73

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/18 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Virginia Tech Athletics)

Season Record: 107-84

Season Best Bet Record: 42-20

1/18 Card:

Virginia Tech +7

Providence +7.5

SDSU/Colorado St. u142

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Virginia Tech +7 : Best Bet of the night! I cannot believe where this opened at. Some were even able to grab +7.5 tickets. This number is now down to +5 at most books. I would play it there, but a lot of the value has faded. It is simple. Virginia Tech is a different ballclub when Hunter Cattoor is in the lineup. The Hokies are 11-2 with Cattoor, and 0-4 without him. He is so vital to this team. Especially, when playing UVA. His perimeter range could be very useful against a pack-line UVA defense. It is being reported that he returns to action tonight, and the Hokies will be VERY locked in to snap a 5 game losing streak on the homecourt of their rivals. There are some analytical edges here as well. Per Shot Quality, the Virginia Tech defense is outperforming it’s analytical performances. They are due for a positive leap to their analytical mean. Mike Young has done very well against UVA to start his career, and that is due to his ability to impact the game in a bigger way in the half-court. Also, keep an eye out for Rodney Rice. This highly recruited freshman made his debut last time out. It did not go as planned for him, but this guy can hoop. He will be a huge addition for this team as they push for their at-large bid. The Hokies will be in this game for 40 minutes, and hell they could even win it. I have UVA winning by 3. I will take the points.

Score Prediction: Virginia 63 – Virginia Tech 60

Providence +7.5 : Too many points to lay against Ed Cooley in conference play. I will gladly take the +7.5. I am hearing that the Friars will be without Bynum tonight, but hearing good news on Bryce Hopkins’ ability to go. He is crucial to this matchup tonight. His wing scoring and defending will be needed against the high flying Golden Eagles. This Providence defense travels. They are ranked 64th in the country in road defensive efficiency. They will need to be gritty and muck this game up. Marquette’s offensive output lately has been absolutely absurd, but they haven’t played anyone with the scrappiness of the Friars recently. Also, I love the play of Devin Carter lately. He is taking on the macho role in the backcourt. His horror film gifs before big games pump me the hell up. I know he will be ready to go for this one tonight. I may be walking into a trap here.. but in Cooley I Trust.

Score Prediction: Marquette 77 – Providence 72

SDSU / Colorado St. u142 : I don’t think we sniff this total tonight. Pace will be our friend. The Rams come into this game ranked 219th in the country in pace. They know that they are outclassed athletically by the Aztecs, so they may try to play even slower tonight. SDSU probably won’t mind that too much. They are playing a little quicker this year, but still come in at 131st in pace. The Aztecs are a Top 50 defense in the country, and have put a clamp on the Rams in recent games. In the three matchups last season Colorado State (who had a much better offense last season) scored 49, 58 &58. Low possessions. Tough defense. We get an under tonight.

Score Prediction: San Diego State 69 – Colorado State 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

1/17 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Washington Times)

Season Record: 105-83

Season Best Bet Record: 41-20

1/17 Card:

Alabama/Vanderbilt u156

Wake Forest -2.5

Baylor/Texas Tech u145

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Alabama / Vanderbilt u156 : This number is dropping in the market. Should see some significant CLV. I see it at 154 at most books. I would not go below u153.5 if you have not already locked in. Alabama’s defense is far too superior for this to be the total when traveling to Vanderbilt. The Tide are ranked 17th in defensive efficiency for the season, and are 8th in the country in their last three games. Also, I think this pace will not be as up and down as one might think for an Alabama game. Stackhouse has the Commodores playing at the 201st paced team in the country, and he knows that his only path to success tonight is to control the tempo. Alabama’s interior defense is incredible, so we will likely see a lot of threes from Vanderbilt. I like our chances there as the Commodores rank outside of the Top 100 in percentage of points from the three point line. Only shooting 33.5% from distance as a team. It is also worth noting that Alabama’s offensive efficiency drops on the road. They are 43rd on the season in offensive efficiency, but they are ranked 120th in regards to road performances. Also, as much as I don’t want to mention it .. you have to include the uncertainty of how Alabama will deal with this off of the court news. Their teammate has been charged with an awful crime. Thoughts most certainly could be elsewhere. I have this total at 148.

Score Prediction: Alabama 79 – Vanderbilt 69

Wake Forest -2.5 : Best Bet of the night! We should also see significant CLV here. This is now -4 at most books. It is starting to lose value, so I would not recommend taking this over -4.5. I see a 6-7 point win tonight for the Demon Deacs. Wake is an absolute inferno in Winston-Salem. Their ppg jumps from 72.9 ppg on the road, to 81.9 ppg at home. Just a different animal. I love the recent play from Tyree Appleby. His scoring has remained virtually the same, but he has significantly improved his assist/turnover ratio in his last four games – 8.0/2.5. I see this as the night that Clemson’s luck finally runs out. Their regression should be coming in a strong way. They are 11-1 in their last 12 games, but after researching on Shot Quality .. the Tigers had a predictive 4-8 record in those games based on advanced shot selection analytics. The Tigers also have a really bad sore on their statistical profile. They rank 316th in the country in offensive rebounding. That stat alone will bring some losses throughout a season. Especially, on the road. Trusting the Deacs tonight. Appleby will be the difference. Best Bet.

Score Prediction: Wake Forest 75 – Clemson 69

Baylor/Texas Tech u145: This game will be a fist fight. Baylor & TTU had two matchups last year that ended on 127 & 156. When you take a deep dive into the 156 total, the pace was much slower that that number would suggest. The total was sitting on 131 with 2:30 left. A lot of threes and late fouls elevated that outing to an over. I have this game at 138. Shot Quality agrees with the under. They have it at 134.6. Texas Tech’s defense is as lockdown as it gets in Lubbock. They are 22nd in the country in defensive efficiency on the season at 0.897. Their rating improves from 0.944 to 0.866 at home. We have seen the Baylor offense struggle on the road this season. 62 points in Ames against Iowa State, and 70 points (25 pt 1H) against Marquette in Fiserv. There won’t be a push and pull on pace tonight. Both teams like to play at the same speed. I think we will see a lot of methodical half-court possessions. We will cruise under this total.

Score Prediction: Texas Tech 70 – Baylor 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!