The return of the Best Bet was a success. The Bulls ran Utah State out of the gym. Wish the Gauchos could’ve pulled off the perfect night with a cherry on top. Oh well. Back today with a 3-pack. It appears Jaland Lowe is set to make his return tonight for the Cats. That is not confirmed, but KSR believes he has a real chance after live practicing this week. That will help the flow of the offense tremendously, and get Aberdeen back into his normal role. Even without Lowe, I love the Cats catching 5.5. The return of Lowe would be a cherry on top. Best Bet. Let’s get hot!
USF ML -102 : It was a disappointing trip to the Bahamas for Brian Hodgson and the Bulls. After losses to VCU and Colorado State, South Florida is now 0-4 vs KenPom Top 70 teams to start the season. Not a great start for a team that many (including myself) think can win the American this year. Shot Quality shows they probably should be 2-2 in these games instead of 0-4. I believe things can swing their way today in Tampa.
Utah State has been an inferno to start the 25/26 season. We got a first hand dose of that in Charleston during the Classic when they were tied 40-40 with Tulane at the half, and then scorched the Green Wave 56-35 in the 2H. I do believe in the long term success of the Aggies. They will compete at the top of the Mountain West. However, their market price/analytics are flying a little too high at the moment.
A look under the hood shows that the Utah State offense is scoring above their expected results in a big way right now. SQ shows they should be closer to 1.11 PPP instead of the 1.19 number they are boasting. This is an important factor in my handicap today. This game will be a high possession affair. The Bulls are 12th in tempo on KenPom. Utah State has been a pace chameleon this year and they will be happy to get up and down with USF tonight. SQ’s Regression Analysis shows that USF is scoring 1.17 PPP and has room to even improve on that. The SQ PPP for USF is 1.19. I am very interested in backing the short home ML in a high possession game with the SQ PPP .08 in South Florida’s favor.
I also love South Florida’s turnover splits for a team that plays as fast as they do. The Bulls are 61st nationally in turnover % on offense, and they are 29th in turning their opponents over. A blemish on the Aggies resume is they are 167th in turnover percentage on offense. This is another reason why I am backing the Bulls today.
Give us the short ML here. The return of the Best Bet. Lock it in.
Score Prediction:USF 86 – Utah State 79
UCSB -12.5 : When is Pasternack going to catch a break? His last few seasons as the Gauchos head coach have been like our start to this gambling this season. Anything that can go wrong, will definitely go wrong. This is one of the best mid-major coaches in the country… that also has one of the best mid-major rosters in the country. This team is due for a breakout performance. The oddsmakers are expecting it today. We are going to ride with them. This is a 9 point KenPom matchup spread and the books have it sitting at 12.5. That is a very telling sign for me.
We are going back to our lovely friends at Shot Quality for a Regression Analysis snapshot on the Gauchos.
This Gauchos team is defending their ass off. 0.99 SQ PPP on the defensive end is elite. The results are going to start coming on that end of the court.
UCSB really flashed its upside in a win over Seattle. The Gauchos got 20 points from sophomore forward Zion Sensley — he was the No. 1 rated recruit in program history.
Aidan Mahaney and Miro Little both reached double-figures, as well.
The offensive firepower is there as well. Mahaney and Little are proven power conference contributors, and Sensley is starting to hit his stride in his sophomore season. 20 points last time out to get his season average into double figures.
Everything feels like it is culminating in a blowout win tonight over a Long Beach State team that is simply just not any good. They are scoring 0.96 SQ PP and are rated 281st in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rating. I am happy to lay the points here with Santa Barbara
November was one for the record books. In the wrong way. It was our first losing month in a few years. We finished the month 48-48. Tough to take, but wagering is never guaranteed. Proud of the streak we had going until it was snapped. After Mississippi State blew the lead the other night and then lost in OT, I needed a break. You will always get the truth and honesty here in regards to how things are going. I hope that you can respect that even in the down times. We are taking a break from the Best Bets as well until we heat up a bit. Hopefully returning with them soon.
In positive news, I think that getting back into campus arenas will swing the fortune back our way. We saw some crazy variance over Feast Week on the neutrals. The most that I personally can remember. The final results in the majority of the games were WAY off of closing lines. We have certainly had more tough breaks than fortunate breaks this year too. It always evens out. Just have to stay the course and trust in the process!
Today’s card is below. Let’s get December started off with a bang! There will be a write-up this week. Maybe two. Just not sure of what days yet. Will keep you posted.
Fucking pathetic. I am sorry y’all. This is supposed to be fun and profitable like it has been since 2020 on here. It is neither right now. I am trusting that what has made us successful over the years will flip the script. Today needs to be that day.
Clawed out at 3-2 night last night. Still can’t escape the 2H melts! Tennessee and Houston appeared to be cruising. Whatever man. Will continue to grind it out. Feeling good about this Thanksgiving card. Hope y’all have an awesome day with family and friends!!!
Houston Team Total over 71.5 (3:30pm – TNT) (Caesars)
Tennessee -2.5 -118 (7:00pm – TNT) **Best Bet** +
Auburn +5.5 (8:00pm – TruTV)(FD)
Gonzaga/Michigan under 163.5 (9:30pm – TNT)(MGM)
Texas +3.5 (9:30pm – ESPN) (DK)
+ Given on X last night
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Houston Team Total over 71.5 : This is a terrible draw for Notre Dame. Houston should be able to get whatever they want offensively in this game. The Fighting Irish come into today’s tilt ranked 321st in the country in block percentage. There is simply no rim protection on this roster. That is TROUBLE when you are dealing with the likes of Tugler and Cenac Jr. around the rim. Not only should the Irish be shaking in their boots about the rim rattling bigs, but Kingston Flemings is the real deal, folks.
Houston freshman Kingston Flemings is a STAR 💫
Flemings had 25 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists in a tough loss against Tennessee pic.twitter.com/sR7drFBk03
His ability to get the ball to the rim brings a different dynamic to this offense from the attack with Cryer over the last several years. He was driving at will against one of the best defenses in the country in Tennessee (check the video above – super impressive). I expect a lot more where that came from today against a team with no shot blocking prowess.
You worry about pace here. Notre Dame and Houston both will play slow. I just see the efficiency of Houston on the offensive end being through the roof. Buying that 2pt% stock now. Give me the team total.
Score Prediction:Houston Team Total – 75
Tennessee -2.5 -118 : Had to stay up late and jump on this one at open. I knew we would see a sky rocket in the market. Apologies to those that weren’t able to snag, but congrats to all of you that were still up when this dropped. Insane CLV coming our way. For the record, I usually don’t like to answer the “Would you still play it at the current number?” question. I hate endorsing plays at a lesser value. This is an exception. I don’t think the market will ever touch what Tennessee wins this game by. I love this play so much.
How fucking impressive were the Vols last night?! Those that have been here for a while know that the Vols are one of my favorite programs in the country. Yes, we are still waiting for Rick to figure it out in March, but this program is a model of regular season elite consistency. We wagered against them yesterday because of my personal number, and I just presumed it to be a terrible matchup edge. I was under the impression that the frontcourts would cancel out and that the Houston backcourt would be the difference. That was not the case. I left that game coming away way more impressed with the Vols interior. Let’s call it like it is. They Houston’d Houston down the stretch in the paint.
Tennessee knocks off Houston! The Vols had the edge in some key areas:
🏀+8 points in the paint (38 vs. 30) 🏀+6 second-chance points (16 vs. 10) 🏀+13 bench points (24 vs. 11) pic.twitter.com/SeGKsygjnA
Jaylen Carey was a menace on the offensive glass. His offensive rebounding and second chance points were the difference. Having that interior firepower off of the bench is such a weapon. This team is for real.
All of this leads me into why I think Kansas is fried in this matchup. Without Darryn Peterson, it is Bidunga/Tiller ball. That was able to carry them against Notre Dame’s frontline (mentioned them earlier). Yes, they were able to also get the win over Syracuse yesterday.. but damn was it ugly. They had 15 turnovers to Syracuse’s 2. Offensive rebounding was 13 to 11, so Cuse was able to compete there. The difference was that Cuse shot 32% from the field and missed 10 free throws. Kansas was practically trying to give the game away at the end of the game. Cuse just couldn’t take advantage. Kansas is nowhere near where they need to be right now. Tennessee will make Kansas pay for this sloppy play today. The Vols frontline will hinder Bidunga/Tiller ball, and Gillespie and Ament will take care of the rest. This game will trend more to the KU/Duke game than what we have seen over the past two days. Vols by a ton. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 76 – Kansas 67
Auburn +5.5 : I worry about the Red Storm on the offensive glass in this game. How can you not? It has been an abomination in that department from St. John’s in the Players Era. They have allowed 17 offensive rebounds to Iowa State, and 26 (!!!) to Baylor in their first two games. This is not something that is getting corrected on a third day in a row of an MTE. Auburn is currently 23rd in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. The Tigers are poised to take advantage of this edge. I also love how the Auburn backcourt is protecting the ball. The Tigers are 10th in the country in turnover percentage on offense. They should get many more cracks at the rim today by winning the turnover and offensive rebounding battle. Love that when backing dog.
The point guard situation for St. John’s is still in disarray in my opinion. Dylan Darling is getting the lions share of the minutes at them moment. Not sure that is a good thing. He has been dreadful in my eyes at this MTE. Darling just seems to be struggling with the level of athleticism at the Players Era. He may figure it out as the season rolls along, but I don’t think he flips the switch on Day 3 in Vegas.
With the perceived turnover, offensive rebounding, and point guard edge that Auburn has in this matchup, I will be backing the dog. Would not be shocked to see the Tigers win this outright. War Damn.
Score Prediction: Auburn 84 – St. John’s 82
Gonzaga/Michigan under 163.5 : This is not fun at all. I understand. Taking the under in a matchup against two of the better teams of the season to this point (still can’t believe we have the Zags 45 to 1) is never a desirable wager. However, I think it is the right one today.
I knew that the Gonzaga defense would be tremendously better this year. That was one of the reasons we added them to our preseason futures portfolio. I just didn’t know they would be THIS good. The Zags are rated 4th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive metric. The defensive wing presence of Grant-Foster and Warley is something that this team desperately needed. This team is ready to make a run at a title. Also, this may surprise all of you. It surprised me as well. Michigan is now rated #1 in KenPom’s defensive metric. We have a battle of Top 5 analytic defenses tonight on a 3rd day of action in a row. Both offenses are due for a slight (very slight) downturn in points per possession per Shot Quality. Give us the under with some tired jump shooting legs and terrific defense.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 80 – Michigan 77
Texas +3.5 : I really like the Longhorns here. So do our friends over at Shot Quality Bets. SQ is projecting the following:
I have this game as a PK on a neutral. Will gladly take 3.5 points.
Here are also some quality metrics from Texas’ SQ Page:
The high free throw rate is important here. That is the biggest blemish on NC State’s resume to start this season. The Wolfpack are 312th in the country in opponent free throw rate. The SQ PPP regression analysis also shows that the Longhorns offense is at 1.27 PPP on the year. It should be a good day offensively for Texas.
The Longhorns defense has some things to work on for sure, but they can build on the havoc they are causing. Texas is 13th in the country in steal percentage, and 18th in the country in block percentage. NC State was able to pull way from Boise yesterday by creating havoc of their own. I think Texas neutralizes that Wolfpack strength today.
This should be a PK. Give us the points. Texas wins outright.
We are back after a much needed two days off. Refreshed and ready to go for Feast Week! The card for today’s action is below. We are letting the dogs bark in Vegas! Boise is going to be barking for us in Maui as well. No Best Bet today. Let’s get our feet wet again before diving back into those. May the late game luck be in our favor today, gents.
Dreadful day yesterday. 3-6 and whiffed on two Best Bets. Maybe the worst day we have had since 2020 on here. If not, close to it. We lost by two hooks again. The late game luck still is just in our favor at the moment. In this business, you have to know when to take a step back and cool the jets. We will take a breather today and regroup and come back strong tomorrow. Hope you have a great Saturday, gents!
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