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3/4 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: OSU Athletics)

I will do my best to provide a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay!

Season Record: 192-142-6

3/4 Three Ball:

Dayton -3

Oklahoma State tto 67.5

Austin Peay +2

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Dayton -3 : This is the time of the year where we always see the best from the Flyers. No analytics based into this play. I just trust that Anthony Grant and Jalen Crutcher will get the Flyers past URI. The return of Chatman has been huge for the Flyers defense, and R.J. Blakney is really starting to improve as a freshman. This is a gut play. Dayton will get it done.

Score Prediction: Dayton 73 – URI 67

Oklahoma State tto67.5 : While getting 12 points with one of the hottest teams in America is tempting, I am not ready to jump in front of a Baylor offensive buzz saw. Instead, I will take the Oklahoma State tto. While Baylor certainly impressed with their offensive performance in Morgantown, their defense was still lacking. Cade Cunningham is in beast mode right now, so I do not see the defense getting right in this one. Cade is also getting help from the likes of Anderson and Boone, which has risen the Cowboys to 81 ppg over their last four contests. I am fearful of a 85-70 final if I take the spread, so I won’t give in to the temptation. Give us 40 Cade!!!

Score Prediction: Baylor 79 – Oklahoma State 71

Austin Peay +2 : Similar to the Dayton situation, you want the best coach and best player on the court during tourney time. Matt Figger and Terry Taylor easily take the cake in the Governors matchup with EKU. Jordyn Adams has not played like it, but he is the 2nd best player in this contest when he is at his best. I feel like we may see some of that as the Governors look to make some noise in the OVC Championship. This is a team that had big time aspirations before COVID put a halt to the 19-20 season. They have not played their best this season, but this is their chance to make up for it all. Again, this is a gut play… but, you need these during tourney time! The lines are spot on, and there are not many analytical advantages to pounce on. Let’s go Govs!

Score Prediction: Austin Peay 78 – EKU 76

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/3 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Hartford Courant)

Season Record: 188-141-6

3/3 Starting Five:

Syracuse -1.5

Wichita State -3.5

UConn ML -120

Creighton +5

Mississippi State -5

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Syracuse -1.5 : What is March without Syracuse inching their way towards the bubble?! The Orange are certainly doing that after their win on Monday over Carolina. They host a tournament lock in Clemson tonight at the Carrier Dome. The Orange need this one more, and I believe they will get it done. Also, this is a typical rat line (shout out Marty Mush). Cuse lost by 16 in the first matchup, and are favored tonight. A deep dive into the stats could point to this. Syracuse won the offensive glass, and the turnover battle by 12. However, they just shot it 30% from the field. That will not happen again tonight. I like the Orange’s size advantage over Clemson to pull through in this one. They got to the line 27 times in the first game, and I expect them to get there 20+ times again tonight. Boeheim time.

Score Prediction: Syracuse 69 – Clemson 64

Wichita State -3.5 : The Shockers are still in the hunt for the AAC regular championship when they roll into New Orleans tonight. Isaac Brown is addressing this as a “must-win game” to achieve their season goals. Tulane has really nothing to play for other than pride at this point, so the hunger and desire edge should be with the Shockers. They also have the best player on the court in Tyson Etienne. The Shockers easily controlled the first meeting, and only shot 40% from the field. They will run the double on the Green Wave.

Score Prediction: Wichita State 73 – Tulane 65

UConn ML -120 : This team is DANGEROUS with James Bouknight back in the fold. He is easily one of my favorite pro prospects in college ball this season, and his electric play has brought the Huskies back to life. UConn dropped the first meeting to Seton Hall (without Bouknight), but the stats showed a very even affair. Bouknight will be the difference tonight as UConn continues to solidify themselves as an NCAA Tournament team.

Score Prediction: UConn 72 – Seton Hall 67

Creighton +5 : The Jays are just a terrible matchup for this year’s Villanova team. I know a lot of people will be picking Nova tonight. Creighton won the first game, and Nova is coming off of an embarrassing loss. Typical “get right” spot. However, the spacing and sharp shooting from Creighton caused Villanova fits in the first meeting, and it will happen again tonight. Also, Creighton has Christian Bishop and Denzel Mahoney to throw at Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. In the earlier meeting, he only scored 8 points while shooting 23% from the field while being largely defended by Bishop/Mahoney. This is a huge weapon for Greg McDermott. If Robinson-Early gets shut down, then Nova doesn’t really have anywhere to go outside of Gillespie. We all know it turns out when he tries to be the main scorer. Going against the grain here. Creighton wins again.

Score Prediction: Creighton 75 – Villanova 74

Mississippi State -5 : Picking on the Aggies in this spot. They have not played a basketball game since January. Yes, you read that right. Their last game was in the SEC/Big 12 challenge against Kansas State on January 30th. They have had a nasty COVID shutdown that affected a large majority of the roster. Without game action or practice time, I do not believe they will be able to hang with the Bulldogs tonight. Stewart Jr. and Molinar are top notch guards, and they should pull this one out. Miss State was up big in the first meeting, and got sloppy and let A&M come back and steal one. They will get their payback tonight.

Score Prediction: Mississippi State 67 – Texas A&M 58

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/2 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Detroit Mercy Athletics)

Season Record: 185-140-6

3/2 Three Ball:

Detroit Mercy ML -120

Michigan State -2

Georgia Tech -1

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Detroit Mercy ML : Trusting in the Antoine Davis show tonight. This kid is unbelievable. He went for 46 (!!!) in the Horizon league first round matchup with Robert Morris. On the season he is averaging 24 ppg, while shooting 91% from the stripe and 37% from distance. He is an elite scorer that is built for tournament play. This team is actually much better than their record shows as well. They are the 2nd highest rated Horizon team in KenPom. They assist more than they turn it over ; they shoot 80% as a team from the free throw line ; and also shoot the three at 39%. Give me the Titans tonight!

Score Prediction: Detroit 76 – NKU 72

Michigan State -2.5 : Yes, I have been on the fade Sparty train. However, IU is dead. The blown lead in Piscataway effectively ended their season in my opinion. It is also likely that they be without Armaan Franklin again tonight. I do not trust that backcourt without Franklin, and Jackson-Davis should find it tough to get it going against the length from Sparty. Izzo will find a way to pull this one out at the Breslin.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 70 – Indiana 64

Georgia Tech -1 : Take the programs and jerseys out of it .. and the Yellow Jackets have the better talent on the court this season. The backcourt of Alvarado, Devoe and Usher – paired with Moses Wright – is a step above what Coach K is rolling out there this season. Also, this game being in Atlanta is a huge advantage for Josh Pastner’s squad. The Jackets are 7-1 straight up at home in conference play, with the lone loss coming to UVA. To be fair, Tech was winning for the majority of that contest as well. Duke has had a nice run, but they will not be able to find a way to squeak this one out on the road.

Score Prediction: Georgia Tech 76 – Duke 71

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/1 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Dayton Daily News)

Season Record: 183-137-6

3/1 Three Ball:

Dayton +8

Quinnipiac +4

UMass +11

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Dayton +8 : Dayton finally got Chatman back, and blew out Saint Louis on Senior Night. Everything was looking up! The Flyers beat a top team in the A 10, and were going to have solid momentum pushing towards the conference tournament. Then, they had their most embarrassing performance of the year. You just cannot lose to Saint Joes. I think they took this game lightly after the win over the Billikens, and got popped in the mouth before they knew what was happening. Jalen Crutcher was visibly upset with his team’s performance, and I expect that the senior leader will have the Flyers up for a chance at another big win to end the regular season over the Bonnies. Dayton could potentially squeak this one out if they get Osun in foul trouble. The athletic bigs from Dayton would be too much for Jalen Shaw to handle. I will take the points with the Flyers in this one.

Score Prediction: St. Bonaventure 68 – Dayton 66

Quinnipiac +4 : B2B system play here. I think the Bobcats will outright win, so I am very confident in getting 4 points here. Luis Kortright is one of my favorite freshmen in the country. He is averaging 20 ppg over his last three, and is also rebounding, assisting and defending. He will be the difference maker tonight to go along with consistency from Jacob Rigoni.

Score Prediction: Quinnipiac 67 – Marist 65

UMass +11 : Time to cash in on Tre Mitchell and Noah Fernandes being back to 100% health. The Minutemen’s two best players have been dealing with a shoulder and wrist injury, and the quality from the team has taken a nose dive. However, they have had a week off and Matt McCall has confirmed that there will be no minute restrictions for either tonight. UMass also took Saint Louis to the brink in both contests last season. They had no answer for a freshman Tre Mitchell, so I think he will take advantage of them again tonight. We are getting a good number tonight before the market corrects. Don’t be scared of this one!

Score Prediction: Saint Louis 74 – UMass 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/25 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Eleven Warriors)

Season Record: 172-127-5

2/25 Three Ball:

Morehead St/Tenn St o131

Ohio State -4

Oregon +1

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Morehead St/Tenn St o131 : I love this play to get the night started. I believe we easily go over the total here. This total is sitting at 131 because of the Morehead State pace of play and defense. They are only allowing 62 ppg, and rank 294th in pace. However, they did run with Tennessee State in their first match-up. This led to a 79-66 victory for the Eagles. Not only do we have that as a sample, but there is a nasty trend for Tennessee State’s defense. They allow 73 ppg on the season, and are allowing 84 POINTS PER GAME over their last 5. We will smoke the total here.

Score Prediction: Morehead State 78 – Tennessee State 65

Ohio State -4 : This Sparty run is cute and all, but the magic is ending tonight. Ohio State is one of the hottest teams in the country, and the loss to Michigan will have them fired up tonight. They played well enough to win against the Wolverines, but it just didn’t happen. The emergence of Duane Washington Jr. has completely changed the make-up of the Buckeyes. They now have a do it all combo-guard to pair with Liddell down low, and Ahrens from the perimeter. The role players of Walker, Sueing and Young round out this incredible team. The Buckeyes are shooting 78% from the line, and I expect them to take care of a Michigan State team that loves to foul. Illinois should have taken advantage of all of the free throws the other night, but the Buckeyes will have no trouble in doing that. I expect them to be hungry from the start tonight, and to have an 8-12 point lead for the majority of the contest.

Score Prediction: Ohio State 76 – Michigan State 67

Oregon +1 : Get right spot for the Ducks. They got abused down low against Southern Cal, and it really took the wind out of the sails from a finally healthy Ducks squad. However, I trust that Dana Altman will have them focused and ready to get back to the winning ways tonight. Stanford is coming off of a loss to Wazzou, and are just not playing well. Duarte and Omoruyi are match-up nightmares for the Cardinal, and I do not know where the defense will come from to defend these guys. Daejon Davis has returned for Stanford, but had 6 turnovers and fouled out of the game against Washington State. Zaire Williams has also not been himself since returning from injury. Quack Quack.

Score Prediction: Oregon 70 – Stanford 66

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/24 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: WholeHogSports)

Season Record: 169-127-5

2/24 Three Ball:

Marquette +9

Rutgers/IU o132.5

Arkansas PK

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Marquette +9 : I believe this is a good match-up for the Golden Eagles. There is a caveat though. Theo John must stay out of foul trouble. John, along with Dawson Garcia, can provide rim protection against Carolina better than most teams. I like D.J. Carton and Koby McEwen to be able to outpace the Tar Heel back court in scoring, and Jamal Cain should pick up where he left off against Butler. Carolina will win the game, but it will be closer than people think.

Score Prediction: UNC 75 – Marquette 70

Rutgers/IU o132.5 : I believe Rutgers gets right at the Rac tonight on the offensive side of the ball, but I am not fully ready to trust them on the defensive end after what I saw against Maryland. Not only could they not get a stop in live action, they also sent the Terps to the line 28 times. I am not sure you can fix that by the next game. IU has some matchup advantages with Franklin and Jackson-Davis, and I believe they will be able to score with Rutgers until the end in this one. We should see a similar score-line to the match-up from earlier this season (74-70).

Score Prediction: Rutgers 72 – IU 67

Arkansas PK : Woooooooooooo! Pig! Sooie! The master motivator that is the Muss Bus, will have Fayetteville fired up tonight. Expect the limited capacity to sound louder than any venue you have heard this season. He will also have his guys ready to go on the court. They were absolutely embarrassed in Tuscaloosa earlier this season. The pressure defense will be turned up tonight, and an Alabama team that already turns the ball over 14+ times per game will have some trouble. Moses Moody is in the top tier of freshmen in the country, and I think he has a big night with the energy that will be buzzing through Bud Walton Arena. This will be a 2u play for me.

Score Prediction: Arkansas 82 – Alabama 77

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/23 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: 247 Sports)

Season Record: 165-123-5

2/23 Mega Card:

Akron +2

Illinois -3 1H & -6

Georgia Tech +2

Bowling Green -7

Texas -1

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Akron +2 : I love watching this Zips team play. Every man is about his teammates’ success. They showed this unselfish, and electric, style of basketball in their comeback win over Ball State last time out. Their momentum was like a freight train that blew the game wide open. They are a well balanced team with Christian Jackson & Trimble up top, and Enrique Freeman down low. Ohio is formidable opponent, but I love the energy that Akron showed me against Ball State. I think they get another important win today.

Score Prediction: Akron 74 – Ohio 72

Illinois -3 1H & -6 : Ride with the hottest team in America??? Duh! The Illini are growing into the team we all thought they could be at the right time. Ayo Dosunmu is pushing for National Player of the Year with his two recent triple-doubles, and the team is also getting major contributions from several others. I want to focus on Kofi Cockburn. Kofi is averaging 21 & 11 in his last 4 games. He has been just as dominant as Ayo. I have no clue who Tom Izzo will try to throw at Kofi to stop him, but there is nobody on the roster with the size or the strength to compete with him. Avoid foul trouble, and he will have upwards of a 25 & 15 night. Sparty had a nice win last time out at IU, but the Illini are just in a different class. Illinois by double digits.

Score Prediction: Illinois 80 – Michigan State 65

Georgia Tech +2 : Riding the hot hand in this match-up. Georgia Tech is coming off of their most impressive outing of the season over the weekend against Miami. They seemingly did not miss a shot in the first half. Their recent performances have Joe Lunardi discussing them as a team to watch to enter the bubble conversation. They have an experienced roster that is hungry for a tournament birth. I do think Virginia Tech is slightly better coached and skilled, but they are coming off of a COVID pause that has forced them out of action since 2/6. I will ride the hot Yellow Jackets against a – hopefully rusty – Hokies group.

Score Prediction: Georgia Tech 70 – Va Tech 67

Bowling Green -7 : Picking on Eastern Michigan again here. They are still shooting 28% from the three point line, and have a negative assist/turnover ratio. You just won’t win many games that way. Bowling Green is also coming into this game feeling good about themselves after knocking off the MAC leaders, Toledo, last week. Justin Turner and Daeqwon Plowden had a big time week, and they should take advantage over a defense that ranks 345 out of 347 teams in defensive efficiency tonight.

Score Prediction: Bowling Green 80 – Eastern Michigan 68

Texas -1 : As I stated in my tweet when I put this out, I expect that Shaka has the Ramey and Jones situation handled by now. They are both great kids, and just had a rough day on Saturday. The Longhorns were crushing WVU until the on court incident, and then the wheels fell off. They will get back to handling their business tonight in a big home game vs Kansas. No analytics to run off of here, I just have a gut feeling.

Score Prediction: Texas 72 – Kansas 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/22 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: The Athletic)

Season Record: 164-121-5

2/22 Three Ball:

Pepperdine +6

Syracuse +6

Citadel +9

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Pepperdine +6 : Vegas is still giving too much love to Randy Bennett. Excellent coach, but the talent is just not there with the Gaels this year. They may squeak out a win here tonight, but it will be a one possession win if so. The Waves are playing great basketball, and won this matchup pretty comfortably a little over a week ago. Colbey Ross is too much for Tommy Kuhse. Also, STAT TIME… The Waves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss. The Gaels also struggle to cover when they return home from a road trip. This is a toss-up game, and I think Pepperdine wins.. but, I will take the points.

Score Prediction: Pepperdine 65 – Saint Mary’s 63

Syracuse +6 : Thank you for our cover on Saturday night, Duke. It was greatly appreciated. Now, back to the fade train! There are many factors that lead me to believe that Syracuse wins this game tonight. To begin with, the 2-3 zone will cause fits for an inexperienced team that is not efficient on the offensive side of the ball. The Orange rank in the top 100 in defensive efficiency this season. Also, they have FIVE double digit scorers. After Matthew Hurt, there is no real go-to guy for the Blue Devils if we get into a higher scoring game. Speaking of Hurt, it is regression time for him. He has seemingly not missed a shot in the last three games. He will come back down closer to earth tonight. Look for a double-double from Quincy Guerrier tonight. Duke has nobody to check him. Also, the Orange shoot it 80% from the stripe. Give me an underdog with that stat backing them up alllllll day!

Score Prediction: Syracuse 77 – Duke 73

Citadel +9 : My faith lies in Hayden Brown tonight. Citadel will not win this game, but I believe Hayden will have a big night that will lead to a cover. Hayden and his teammates can really shoot if from three (37%), and Mercer ranks in the bottom third of the country in defensive efficiency. I really think this will be a high scoring affair from both teams, but I just cannot lay the huge total. So, we will take the Bulldogs to cover the 9.

Score Prediction: Mercer 82 – Citadel 76

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/19 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: CBU Athletics)

Season Record: 151-115-5

2/19 Four Point Play:

South Alabama +1.5

Akron -4

Cal Baptist +9.5 & Over 142.5

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South Alabama +1.5 : These two teams split an earlier season series, but the Jaguars will have an edge tonight. Appalachian State is coming off of a nasty COVID shutdown. The Mountaineers have not had a game since January 30th. There is just no way to shake off the rust mid-game when you have Michael Flowers on the other side. South Alabama gets a comfortable win.

Score Prediction: South Alabama 70 – App State 65

Akron -4 : This is a nice spot to ride with Zips. Ball State has lost 4 or 5, and Akron almost had a slip-up against a bad NIU team last time out. They should be focused and ready to go to take care of an inferior opponent tonight. The Zips won the first meeting 72-44, and absolutely dominated the offensive glass and turnover margin. This will not be close. Loren Christian Jackson will go for 28+ – official prediction.

Score Prediction: Akron 77 – Ball State 62

Cal Baptist +9.5 & Over 142.5 : Yes, they are the inferior side here.. however, they have all of the key stats in their favor for a team that is trying to cover a large spread. They are shooting 41% from distance!!! That is absurd. Also, they shoot 74% from the line. Good shooting covers spreads – it is not rocket science. This team also assists at a high rate, and does not turnover the ball as much as they should for their pace. I love them to cover tonight. Those statistics, added with their absence of defense, also leads me to taking over the total here. Grand Canyon will exploit the Cal Baptist defense in a big way. They will touch 80+ in this game, but Baptist will hang around.

Score Prediction: Grand Canyon 80 – Cal Baptist 73

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/18 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: 247 Sports)

Season Record: 149-114-5

2/18 Three Ball:

Iowa +2.5

Arizona +2.5

Oregon -2.5

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Iowa +2.5 : The Badgers are a dead man walking. If there wasn’t already a confidence issue before, there will certainly be one now after they choke job against Michigan over the weekend. We simply have been giving Wisconsin too much credit for being the most experienced team in the country. The talent just isn’t there to compete with the likes of Iowa and Michigan. Also, Potter had his minutes significantly reduced last game. There was a spat with the coaching staff over his usage the last time that happened. May be nothing, but worth pointing out. Iowa will outshoot, and blow past the Badgers in transition tonight. Road win for the Hawkeyes.

Score Prediction: Iowa 75 – Wisconsin 70

Arizona +2.5 : This is probably not a sexy pick, and most would be scared to take it .. but I love the Wildcats tonight. They have size down low that will cause UCLA fits with Jalen Hill out of the lineup again. Also, the emergence of Kerr Kriisa has me salivating over what this team could become. The Estonian is named after Steve Kerr, and has modeled his game around the former Bulls star. He looked exceptional against Oregon, and I expect another great performance tonight. UCLA has also been struggling of late. Have lost two of three, and needed a 30+ performance from Juzang to squeak out a 3 point win over a poor Washington team. Arizona wins this game.

Score Prediction: Arizona 72 – UCLA 70

Oregon -2.5: No excerpt needed. Riding the train until the wheels fall off.

Score Prediction: Oregon 71 – Colorado 66

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!