BOOM!! We answered the bell, fellas. A winning day was much needed. We went 5-3 on the card including going 2-0 on Best Bets! We also added a 3-0 Race to 10 performance to get us into positive pizza territory. Another big day is coming for us today. Let’s run it up on the last day of the first weekend! Race to 10’s for today are also included below the card so make sure to scroll down. Let’s stay hot!
———————————————————
3/23 Card:
UConn/Florida 1H under 71.5 (Caesars) (12:10pm – CBS)
Baylor 1H +7 (Caesars) (2:40pm – CBS)
Illinois -1.5 (Caesars) (5:15pm – CBS)+
Saint Mary’s +6 (Caesars) (6:10pm – TNT)**Best Bet**
Ole Miss/Iowa State over 145 (DK) (7:45 truTV)
New Mexico +7.5 (FD) (8:40pm – TNT)+ **Best Bet**
+ given on Saturday
———————————————————
3/23 Race to 10’s (8-7 ; up 1.19 pizzas)
Baylor +160 (DK)
Ole Miss +115 (DK)
New Mexico +125 (DK)
Oregon +105 (DK)
———————————————————
Sweet 16 – Early Adds:
None at this point. Will probably add one or two on Monday morning.
———————————————————
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
What a weird ass day yesterday was. We started the day 4-1 and brought our Best Bets for the tournament to 5-1. Vibes were high entering the four late games where we had all four underdogs. Well, you know the rest. OU and Bryant melting away in the last few minutes just capped it off. The public favorites steamrolled the late night quadbox. Very disappointing way to end the day. It’s almost unfathomable. Nothing we can do about it now though. Time to dust ourselves off and get back to winning. Today’s card is below. A few 3/23 Early Adds & Race to 10’s for today are also included below the card so make sure to scroll down. Let’s get hot!
———————————————————
3/22 Card:
McNeese/Purdue over 143.5 (FD) (12:10pm)+
Purdue should have a field day in the paint in this game. McNeese has limited size in the frontcourt and we saw just how vulnerable they can be with that late Clemson comeback on Thursday.
As you can see above from the McNeese ShotQuality profile (promo code: SNIPER25), the Cowboys are dreadful in defending in the half court. Braden Smith will baptize this team in the pick & roll. The Boilers rank 14th in half court SQ PPP. While McNeese has major defensive shortcomings, they can also score as you can see above. I expect some decent efficiency in this game. Both of these team’s games went under in the first game at the Dunk, but the SQ Score would have covered both overs. I love the over here. SQ does as well with a predicted score of 78.7-71.4. We got a bad number here with the late movement. Most likely due to the unders in this building. I’ve dipped my toes in again at 140.5.
Score Prediction: Purdue 78 – McNeese 69
Texas A&M -2.5 (DK) (5:15pm)+
Michigan was very lucky to escape UCSD on night one. Their turnover issue was on full display as the Tritons scored 15 points off of 14 turnovers. The Aggies are 54th in the country in turning over their opponents and should get many freebies today. I also think that the depth of A&M is going to be the difference today in what should be a physical game with a ton of fouls.
Pharrel Payne was EVERYWHERE for @aggiembk in their R1 win 💥
The Aggies are legit 10 deep and can have guys like Pharrel Payne go off on any given night. The Wolverines do not have a ton of depth and the Aggies #1 free throw rate in the country is going to rack up fouls on Michigan quickly (especially Goldin). A&M moves on to the Sweet 16. Lean the over here as well.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 76 – Michigan 70
Texas Tech 1H -3.5 (FD) (6:10pm)
This is a matchup where I believe Drake has finally met their match from a physicality standpoint. Drake’s defense has been surviving with some pretty worrisome warts on their KenPom resume. The Bulldogs are 291st in the country in 2pt FG % allowed and 271st in opponent free throw rate. I think Texas Tech is primed to take advantage of this with Toppin, Williams, etc. I think the Red Raiders enforce their will early so I will take the 1H to avoid late game magic from Stirtz and Mascari.
Score Prediction: 1H Texas Tech 32 – Drake 26
Auburn -9 (Caesars) (7:10pm) + **Best Bet**
This one is going to get veryyyyyyyy ugly, folks. We were all over Creighton in the first game of the Round of 64, and boy did the Jays deliver for us. It is tough to turn our backs on them this quickly, but this Auburn matchup is an absolute nightmare. The Kalkbrenner advantage that Creighton normally has is completely washed away here. The Tigers have the best interior rim protection in the country as a unit in my personal opinion. Broome, Cardwell, Johnson, etc. They get massive help from their guards as well. The stats back it up. Auburn ranks 2nd in the country in blocked shots per game. I also am predicted a huge turnover disparity here. Auburn ranks 7th in the country in protecting the ball, and 2nd in Non-Stl TO% per KenPom. Creighton is 361st in turning their opponents over. The Auburn ball pressure is certainly going to force some on Creighton’s side, so this could play a major factor in this game. I love the matchup edges for Auburn. I think the sleeping Tiger wakes up a bit and we see one of the thrashings that we had gotten used to earlier in the year. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Auburn 85 – Creighton 68
BYU +1.5 (FD) (7:45pm) +
BYU made a believer out of me in the matchup with VCU. I was already a fan of this group, but I thought that was a horrible draw for them and they came out and handled business wire-t0-wire against a very, very good Rams team. What surprised me was the way they attacked the rim against an elite interior defense. BYU got to the line 28 times compared to VCU’s 6. This team is already 5th in KenPom in 2pt% and 6th in effective FG%. Getting to the line at that rate turns this #9 KenPom offense into something even more elite. Wisconsin is 274th in the country in opponent % of points coming from the stripe. That could very well play a major factor in today’s game. Wisconsin will certainly get their usual three pointers today, but I think Crowl and Winter are going to find things very difficult in their post-up game with Keba Keita protecting the paint.
Wisconsin starts two seven-footers; this season they've combined for fewer blocked shots (30) than 6'8" Keba Keita (37). pic.twitter.com/t1pz3e0MPv
There is a reason why this game sits at +1 and even PK at some books now with the KenPom predicted score being a Wisconsin 3 point victory. The 6 seed moves on to the Sweet 16.
Score Prediction: BYU 78 – Wisconsin 74
Houston -4.5 (DK) (8:40pm) + **Best Bet**
It has been well documented by now the strength of Gonzaga’s analytics. I took a swing with UGA bucking that notion, and failed miserably. I am here today doing it again. Kelvin Sampson won’t make me regret that. Gonzaga has had major struggles this year with teams that get physical with them. That is why I thought UGA’s interior could keep them in the game. Houston is a completely different animal. The Cougars are absolutely going to suffocate Ike, Huff, Gregg, etc in the paint. Houston is #2 in the country in effective FG% allowed and #4 in 2pt % allowed. Gonzaga’s offense is also predicated on Ryan Nembhard play creating and getting assists. Those are going to be hard to come by today. Houston is 27th in the country in assists allowed per game.
This is also not the typical Houston team you are accustomed to seeing if you are just now joining the CBB world for March Madness. This team can actually shoot! Houston ranks 4th in the country in 3PT % at 39.6%. The Three&D combo is very lethal come this time of year.
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 20, 2025
The analytic paper tiger gets put to rest today. Houston wins comfortably. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Houston 75 – Gonzaga 66
Tennessee -4.5 (DK) (9:40pm) +
It is unfortunate that Utah State did not come prepared to play against UCLA, but it gives us a chance tonight to take advantage of a team that I do not believe is good enough to be in this R32. These UCLA major analytic downfalls from ShotQuality are a big reason why I think they have a poor night against the Vols.
Tennessee, like Houston, can shoot very well this season. The Vols are 35th in efficiency shooting the three pointer per Shot Quality. The Vols are also 3rd in the country in opponent three point percentage. Holding opponents to only 28.2%. We already know from the profile above that UCLA does not attack the rim. It is going to be a recipe for disaster if UCLA finds themselves living in the mid range against this lengthy Vols defense if they can’t get anything at the rim or from 3. This is a horrible matchup for UCLA. It is always tough backing Rick Barnes as a favorite in the tournament, but we have to here.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 70 – UCLA 63
+ given on Friday
———————————————————
3/22 Race to 10’s (5-7 ; down 2.06 pizzas)
I have no idea how we didn’t get Troy OR Bryant yesterday. We would be in positive pizza territory if we had just gotten one. Let’s try this again.
Arkansas +125 (DK)
Texas Tech -145 (FD)
BYU +100 (DK)
———————————————————
3/23 Early Adds:
Illinois -1.5 (Caesars) (5:15pm – CBS)
New Mexico +7.5 (FD) (8:40pm – TNT)
I like a few other spots, but I think we will get better numbers tomorrow. More to come!
———————————————————
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
(photo: Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
24/25 Season Record: 283-227
2025 NCAA Tournament: 5-5 (3-1 Best Bet)
A tough finish to the day yesterday to knocks us back to 5-5 for the tournament. We usually kick ass on Day 1, but this is just motivation to grind harder and get us back to where we need to be. We are 3-1 on Best Bets at least. Just need to get the other plays on track. I will not have time to get a write-up out today. Sorry fellas. We will be back with one tomorrow. A few 3/22 Early Adds & Race to 10’s for today included below the card so make sure to scroll down. Let’s get hot!
3/21 Card :
Mississippi State ML -110 (DK) (12:15pm)+
Iowa State -13.5 (MGM) (1:30pm) + **Best Bet**
Vanderbilt/St. Mary’s under 136.5 (FD) (3:15pm)+
Maryland -10 (MGM) (4:35pm)**Best Bet**
New Mexico +4 (Caesars) (7:25pm)+
Oklahoma +5.5 (DK) (9:25pm)
Xavier +3.5 (MGM) (9:45pm)
Bryant +17.5 (DK) (10:00pm)
Liberty +7.5 (MGM) (10:10pm)
+ given on Sunday
——————————————————
3/21 Race to 10’s (2-4 ; down 2.1 pizzas)
Colorado State -110 (DK)
Ole Miss +102 (FD)
Troy +154 (FD)
New Mexico +102 (FD)
Akron +176 (FD)
Bryant +220 (FD)
———————————————————
3/22 Early Adds:
McNeese/Purdue over 143.5 (FD) (12:10pm)
Texas A&M -2.5 (DK) (5:15pm)
Auburn -9 (Caesars) (6:10pm) **Best Bet**
BYU +1.5 (FD) (7:45pm)
Houston -4.5 (DK) (8:40pm) **Best Bet**
Tennessee -4.5 (DK) (9:40pm)
———————————————————
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
If you would like to leave a thank you, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
————————————
Creighton +2.5 : Ryan Kalkbrenner is going to completely control the paint on both ends of the court in this game. I worry about Louisville’s rim protection here. They really struggled at the rim against Maluach last time out. James Scott is the only resistance on the defensive end for the Cards against Kalk, and he has been in foul trouble constantly over the last month. Scott has recorded at least 4 fouls in three out of the last five games, and fouled out of the most recent game against Duke. Kalkbrenner is literally never in foul trouble and will have free rolls to the basket consistently without Scott on the court. I think the Jays are in a great spot defensively in this game as well. Creighton ranks 1st in the country in Shot Selection allowed per ShotQuality (SQ promo code: SNIPER25), and they are also 2nd in Rim & 3 rate allowed. I mentioned it with Kalk earlier, but the Jays also just don’t foul at all as a team. They are #1 in the country in free throw rate allowed to their opponents. They are going to force many threes from this Louisville team (who will gladly take them), and I think that will be a recipe for success after they dominate the paint and the free throw battle. Louisville is 216th in the country in 3PT %, but are 19th in 3Point rate. Creighton will let them to fire away from deep and control everything else. Creighton’s ability to make threes give us a chance to win in all three phases of the box score (2pt, 3pt, FT). I like our chances at the tiny upset.
Score Prediction:Creighton 75 – Louisville 70
High Point +9 : This High Point player performance snapshot is courtesy of the ShotQuality March Madness primer (this thing is really fucking cool – go buy it)
In a nutshell, the Panthers can fill it up. This bench is very deep for a team from the Big South, and it is almost impossible to find a blemish on their KenPom or ShotQuality resume’s from an offensive perspective. High Point has the 25th best offense in the KenPom adjusted efficiency rating and are 12th in effective field goal percentage. Here is also a quick ShotQuality snapshot of other areas they excel at.
This high powered offense is going to be trouble for a reeling Purdue defense. Bodo Bodo is going to have a field day at the rim. Purdue has fallen all of the way to 350th in defending shots at the rim per ShotQuality. There is absolutely no rim protection. I also like High Point to compete heavily with Purdue from the three point line. That has been a weapon that has kept Purdue afloat, but High Point is 25th per SQ in defending the three point line.
I like High Point to keep this one within 9 points, but this is not an outright upset situation in my opinion. The High Point interior and transition defense is too flawed. Braden Smith will have his way with this Panther defense. I am just convinced that High Point can score enough on the struggling Purdue defense to keep us within the number here. It looks like we will receive some nice CLV after locking in on Sunday night. This will be a fun one to watch.
Score Prediction: Purdue 82 – High Point 76
Montana/Wisconsin over 148.5 : We are cruising to some awesome CLV here as well. The Sunday work paid off!
It is so awesome to see how Greg Gard has evolved and changed a lot of his prior principles to become a dynamic offensive program. The Badgers offense is legit. The three point rate is what I am really excited about in this matchup. Wisconsin comes into this Round of 64 game ranked 18th in the country in three point rate. This rate was actually, believe it or not, getting blown out of the water in Indy. The Badgers took 100 threes in three games. One hundred. ShotQuality ranks Montana at 336th in the country in Open 3 Rate allowed. KenPom has the Griz at 319th in the country in opponent percentage of points allowed from three. It is going to be bombs away in this one from Wisconsin. Montana also is 156th in the country in opponent free throw rate. Wisconsin remains #1 in free throw percentage. There are plenty of paths for Wisconsin to score.
Montana is a decent little mid-major offense. Shot Quality ranks them 25th in efficiency attacking them rim and 62nd in efficient three point shooting. They are not due for any regression at all on their 1.12 PPP on the season. Wisconsin will definitely be a step-up in competition, but I think their recent hot streak will be plenty enough to get us over the total we locked in on Sunday.
Score Prediction: Wisconsin 87 –Montana 67
McNeese +7.5 : This dog is live. Not enough people are talking about the injury to Dillon Hunter.
I think that Dillon Hunter is a decent loss for Clemson tonight.
Non garbage time this minutes this season
On floor: Holding opponents to .95 points per possession
Off floor: Opponents scoring 1.04 points per possession
His impact goes way beyond the box score. The ball handling, passing and defensive court presence will be greatly missed in this matchup with McNeese. The Clemson backcourt now essentially is 2-deep. It is a great two, but McNeese is going to have a field day with their defensive pressure on Jake Heidbreder & Del Jones when they enter into the game. The Cowboys rank 18 in the country in forcing turnovers and are 11th in steal percentage. They are also 20th in frequency of getting out into transition on offense. I think their pace and physicality could rack up fouls on Chase Hunter and Jaeden Zackery and put the Tigers in a world of hurt with no depth.
McNeese left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth last year after getting blasted by Gonzaga in the R64, but I feel that this year is a better version of the Cowboys. KenPom agrees. They are ranked 8 spots higher than a year ago when they went 30-4. Will Wade (Clemson alum & admitted fan) is a fantastic coach that can gameplan to win a game like this. He also just agreed to terms with NC State so all of that speculation is put to bed now. It is all about finishing strong as a unit before they all depart lovely Lake Charles. Clemson probably wins a very tight on here, but it is going to be a nail biter. SQ’s predicted score is 73.1-69.7. I see this one coming down to the final possession. Another clutch end of game shot from Chase Hunter? I wouldn’t rule it out. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Clemson 68 – McNeese 66
VCU +2.5 : A beautiful clash of styles that we have here in Denver. VCU is #1 in the country in effective FG% on defense. BYU is #7 in the country in effective FG% on offense. Both teams are full of veterans and have a ton of experience. The difference? VCU’s Offense > BYU’s Defense.
The Rams get praised constantly for their defensive presence, but their offense is pretty damn good as well. The Rams are 45th in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency. They are also 12th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. The BYU defense has several holes that the Rams expose. The Cougars are 166th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Not great. They also are 331st in opponent three point rate allowed and are 242nd in opponent three point percentage.
I like VCU’s advantage with the secondary units in this one. I am very confident with the ball in Max Shulga’s hands in a close game. Give me the points with the Rams. I think they win outright.
Score Prediction: VCU 75 – BYU 71
Georgia +6.5 : Gonzaga has been penciled into the 2nd round in every bracket in America outside of Athens, GA. Are we sure that Gonzaga is that much better than Georgia? You know that I am a slut for analytics, and boy are those in Gonzaga’s favor … but I am not seeing where the 6.5 point gap is here on a neutral. Asa Newell is a very, very bad matchup for the Gonzaga bigs. His physicality and athleticism will be a real problem.
I love this defense from Asa Newell. This is the type of stuff we saw from him more at Montverde. Even if he doesn't end up as more of a 5, I think he has all the tools to be a really versatile and switchable defender. pic.twitter.com/PWJRSMgKcT
Asa Newell been shooting 33% from three since start of February. If he can keep progressing from deep then that opens up the route for him at the 4 next level. pic.twitter.com/JeDSPXExxD
Georgia is very underrated in my opinion. They just beat Florida a few weeks ago! Everyone has already seemingly forgotten that happened. The Bulldogs are the 26th best defense in KenPom and are 16th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. I think that Newell, Godfrey and Cyril can present a physicality to Gonzaga that they clearly struggle with. Hi Saint Mary’s. UGA’s kryptonite is turning the ball over. Gonzaga is just average at forcing them. No crazy matchup edge there. I think the Dawgs can hang around here. They are SEC battle tested. This high octane Gonzaga offense is nothing they haven’t seen before in conference. Hell, UGA may even win. Give us the points.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 77 – UGA 73
Texas A&M -7 : Yeah, I am not sure what everyone is seeing here. Yale is a very trendy upset pick in this matchup. I don’t even see it in the realm of possibility from an outright perspective. I think this is a dog walk. The combination of the #1 offensive rebounding unit in the country (by a wide margin) and the #7 KenPom defense will be too much for the Bulldogs to overcome. Yale’s 117th ranked defense will not be enough to keep them competitive. Everybody remembers the Auburn win from a year ago for Yale, but they are forgetting the ass kicking that SDSU handed to them in the R32. Danny Wolf and Matt Knowling aren’t walking through that door tomorrow either. Also, people seem to forget that A&M pushed Houston to OT as a 9 seed in the R32 a season ago. The rest the Aggies gained from not going on a deep run in Nashville (as they have done the past two seasons) is a win for them in my opinion. I see this as a comfortable double digit victory for A&M. I will gladly lay it with only 31% of the tickets on Texas A&M. Aggies go on a run to the 2nd weekend. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 76 – Yale 62
Mizzou -6 : Bucking another trendy upset here.
No. 11 Drake +6.5 (vs. No. 6 Missouri) is the most-bet #MarchMadness side by total number of tickets at @ESPNBET
I am riding passenger seat with the books here while having the #5 KenPom offense & #2 free throw rate in the backseat. I like the sound of that. We’ve been doing this too long to pass up on an opportunity to fade a massive public dog of this magnitude. I am not even going to get in the weeds of analytics. This is standard operating procedure for us. M-I-Z
Score Prediction: Missouri 76 – Drake 66
Utah State +5 : I have a huge belief in the Mountain West for this R64. I know it is hard for you guys to trust in this group of teams, but these matchups are fantastic. San Diego State is nowhere near as good as the three teams that we have left per analytics and my own personal opinion. Don’t let their ass kicking cloud your judgement.
There might only be one person who believes less in this Bruins team than I do. His name is Mick Cronin. He is so done with this group. He has been berating them in the media all year long and you can see how visibly frustrated he is on the sidelines when he’s coaching them (more than his normal grumpy self). With that last ass kicking from Wisconsin and the Villanova-Cronin chatter growing louder and louder, I am not sure how UCLA circles the wagons here to cover a 5 point spread against a quality Utah State team.
Utah State has very similar offensive analytics to Wisconsin who just ass blasted the Bruins. This is the #17 rated offense in KenPom (22nd in effective field goal percentage) and they also rank 17th in Rim & 3 rate per ShotQuality. Rim & 3 rate is very important when facing the Bruins. They want to force you into tough 2’s, but Utah State will refuse to take them. The Aggies also have the size to rebound well in this one. Utah State is 44th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and UCLA is only 151st in keeping opponents off of the offensive glass.
It is worth noting that UCLA is 2-7 straight up outside of the pacific time zone this year. This game is in Lexington, KY. The matchup is essentially a PK on ShotQuality with a predicted score of 72.6-71.9. I am in full agreeance. I will gladly take the points. I think Utah State wins outright. My favorite one of Thursday. Best Bet.
Welcome to 2025 Three Point Sniper NCAA Tournament Preview!
What a year it has been, fellas! Our community keeps getting larger and larger every year that we do this. It is so damn fun to see the engagement every time I hit submit on a winning post on X. Y’all rock. We currently have a season record of 278-222 (55.6%). Another monster season added to the books. That momentum is carrying us into the tournament where we have gone 62-36 in the last two seasons. I am fired up to get this thing rolling!
There is no perfect science when it comes to this tournament. That is why we love it. I just hope the preview below is a tool that you can use to put your best foot forward with brackets, pools, etc. I will certainly be using it for handicapping. Hopefully we are on the right track with the analytics backing our decision making.
If you would like to leave a thank you now or in the future, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
NCAA Tournament Title Winner
We started the tradition of riding a title winning future together as a group two seasons ago.. and damn has it been a fun ride! One team, one bet. 2023 started this off in a BIG way. We placed a 16-1 ticket on UConn prior to the 2023 tournament. We literally didn’t have to sweat a single game. It was the most fun that I have had wagering in my life. Going 27-12 in the same tournament also helped. Tennessee was our pick last year. We made it to the Elite 8 before bowing out to Zach Edey.
I do have some bad news for the new members to the 3PS community this year though. I am breaking the tradition in Year 3. I will not be placing a wager on a title winner due to the massive success we had in the preseason market (receipts above). Guys, we have the number 2 team in KenPom at fucking 60-1. We also have the number 3 team in KenPom at 15-1. I apologize to the new followers that I have picked up this season who missed out on these numbers, but I cannot place another future with the situation we are in. I also truly think that Florida and Houston are the two best teams in the country. We have these tickets on opposite sides of the bracket. There is a world where we have 60-1 vs 15-1 in the national title game. With Florida’s performance in Nashville, you are lying to yourself if you don’t think this is currently the best team in the country. The Gator’s form is reminding me of our 2023 Huskies (& 2024 for that matter). The offensive outputs we are seeing are no fluke.
This is Florida’s ShotQuality Regression Analysis (SQ promo code: SNIPER25) on the offensive end. The scary part is that SQ actually expects them to be a tad better. I don’t think it matters who is in their way right now. I am riding with who got us here. Go Gators. (Houston would be cool too)
In this section we are going to uncover who is seeded improperly based on analytics mixed with my own personal power ratings that I use for handicapping. This will help you with picking upsets in your bracket + selecting who to fade from a betting perspective. It will also identify teams that we can take round futures on (S16, E8, F4). Thank you to our friends at KenPom and ShotQuality (SQ promo code: SNIPER25). I am combining their adjusted team ratings (the best out there) with my own personal power ratings. All three are weighted equally to develop the 3PS Seed Matrix score. I will then compare this against the 1-64 seeds released by the committee to see where the biggest variances are. Here is what I uncovered:
**Honorable Mention: Texas Tech’s seed line is keeping the variance lower than the ones mentioned above, but they are the 5th best team in the tournament per the 3PS Matrix. Seeded 9th by the committee. Elite 8 lock?
Seeded Too High Per Metrics:
Memphis: True Seed: 20 ; 3PS Seed Matrix: 48 (-28) … Special one here. Colorado State is 42nd in the 3PS Seed Matrix. This is a 12-5 you definitely want to take a shot with in your bracket. Especially with the injury news on Tyrese Hunter. Fire up the Rams.
Penny on Tyrese Hunter's status moving forward: "We don't know what his future's gonna hold for the rest of this year. But we do know he'll be with us."
Says Hunter's leadership — even from sidelines — was crucial the past two days.
**Special KenPom nugget pointed out by Rico Bosco featuring two teams in this category. History and the 3PS Seed Matrix are not on the side of the Spartans and Johnnies making a run to San Antonio.
2024 – Iowa St Sweet 16 2025 Michigan St 2025 St John’s
Memphis is on high alert for an upset based on seeding. However, Vegas is sharp to this. Colorado State is favored in the game. Let’s talk about some teams who might be on outright upset alert at the books. I know you sickos love your ML parlays. (Please gamble responsibly)
UCLA: This would only be a 10 over a 7, but Utah State is very live in this game. The Bruins have a -5 variance in the 3PS Seed Matrix. Utah State is the #17 offense in KenPom. They are also 17th in Rim&3 rate per Shot Quality. I like their chances to compete against the stout Bruins defense. I have played Utah State +5 and think they can win this game outright.
Marquette: Another 10 over 7 scenario here with a Mountain West team as the dog. We are going to have to trust the data (shoutout Cheah) as opposed to recent Mountain West performances in this tournament. New Mexico will be just fine with the pace Marquette wants to play. The Lobos actually have the higher tempo per KenPom. New Mexico also boasts a Top 20 KenPom defense. This team is more well rounded than you might think. I have played +4 on the Lobos and think they win the game. Donovan Dent will become a household name very soon. Having a star to match the firepower of Kam Jones is important here.
UConn: I really thought the Huskies would break through at MSG. It’s just not happening. Don’t bet Oklahoma yet if you are interested. The Huskies will see plenty of public money over the next few days and we will get a better price. These teams are slotted right next to each other in the 3PS Seed Matrix. Oklahoma can take advantage of the fouling problem that UConn has. The Huskies are 333rd in opponent free throw rate. Oklahoma is 32nd in the country in percentage of points from free throws, and are 9th in the country in free throw percentage. This is a one point game on KenPom. The Sooners are a live dog to win outright. I will likely get to the window before this tips on the OU spread. Jeremiah Fears Forever.
Michigan: Vegas is all over this, so you won’t see much value here. UC San Diego has a real chance to pull off this upset. Michigan is overseeded per the 3PS Seed Matrix. The fluff that national outlets are putting out there as the Wolverines being under-seeded for winning the Big 10 tournament is not accurate. The major turnover problem that Michigan has could haunt the Wolverines in a big way here. UCSD is 2nd in the country in turning over their opponents per KenPom (also 7th in not turning it over on offense), and Michigan is 328th in turning over the ball. I doubt I get to the window here, but wanted to mention it.
Oregon: The metrics hate Oregon as you saw in the 3PS Seed Matrix. Dana Altman in March is not something I like to fade, but can he bring out the best in this team when it matters the most? I am not sure at this point. I likely won’t get involved in this game, but a 6 point spread stinks to the high heavens. The Flames are worth a look at the current number. Not sure they have enough to pull off the outright, but the books are suggesting it is in the realm of possibility.
Illinois & Ole Miss: Hold on to your asses, Illini & Rebs fans. We don’t have spreads yet because the First Four games have to materialize, but both of these teams should be on upset alert from whoever makes it out of Dayton to face them. This is the strongest group of 11’s in the First Four that I have ever seen from a metrics perspective.
Tournament Round Futures
Sweet 16 Longshots:
VCU +400 (DK): This defense is nasty. The Rams rank 23rd in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency. They are also #1 in the country in effective FG % allowed on defense. It is a tough draw with BYU and Wisconsin, but worth a look.
New Mexico +500 (DK): As we spoke about earlier, I believe the Lobos are poised to upset Marquette. This brings a likely draw with Michigan State in Round 2. The Spartans are one of the biggest overseeds per the 3PS Seed Matrix. This is also worth a look.
I haven’t got to the window yet on these, but certainly wanted to bring those to your attention. I will post on X if I ever post a S16 or E8 future play. I do think it is worth noting that I truly believe this is the first time since 2008 where getting all of the 1 seeds to San Antonio is seriously in play. There is a massive gap after Florida, Houston, Duke & Auburn. I don’t see many flaws in these teams other than the injuries to Cooper Flagg and J’Wan Roberts. It does sound like both will be ready to go this weekend, so I am not overly concerned. We will always have craziness in the first few rounds, but I suspect the Final Four will be very, very chalky this year.
That’ll be it for this preview. Good luck with all of your wagering and pools this week everyone. Let’s make this tournament the best one yet!
The plays below are the early adds that I am locking in as of tonight – 3/16. There will be more as we go through the week. I will also be doing a write-up for all of my picks (including these). Thursday’s write-up will be posted on Wednesday night, and Friday’s write-up will be posted on Thursday night or Friday morning. Working on the Tournament Preview now. Looking to post that tomorrow afternoon-PM. We are 62-36 over the last two NCAA Tournaments. Let’s crush it again! Appreciate everyone who has made it to this page. We have built an awesome community over the past 5 years. Your support means a lot!
If you would like to leave a thank you now or in the future, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
————————————
***Lock in as soon as you can if you are riding the wave. These spreads are moving like crazy right now***
We have a few mid-majors left to finish, but this is the real meat of the conference tournament season. There are several conference tournaments where I see value on some mid-long shots to make a run. Unfortunately, I ran out of time for a write-up.. but here they are!
Mountain West – Utah State +400 (FD)
ACC – Pass. Duke is too much here. SMU at +6500 (FD) could be sneaky if you just need a dart throw for a pool or something
St. John’s/Marquette over 141.5 (12:00pm – Fox)+**Best Bet**
NC State/Miami over 149.5(12:00pm – CW Network)(FD)
Tennessee -15.5 (2:00pm – SECN) +**Best Bet**
UConn -18 (2:30pm – Fox) +
Kansas -3 (4:30pm -ESPN) +
+ given last night on X
If you would like to leave a thank you from the recent hot streak, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
————————————
St. John’s/Marquette over 141.5 : It looks like we will receive some nice CLV to get our day started. This number is touching 145.5 at some places. Glad we got in early.
I cannot state enough how fucking awesome Kam Jones is. The way he has completely remodeled his game post-Kolek is amazing to me. Jones never averaged over 2.4 assists in any of his first three years at Marquette. He is now averaging 6 assists per game this year. That is good for 20th nationally. More importantly, Kam is boasting a 3.35 assist/turnover ratio. That is 5th nationally! He has transformed himself into one of the best true point guards in the country.
The assist/turnover ratio is going to be very important today against one of the better defenses in the country. Marquette is 7th in the country in protecting the ball. You have to limit turnovers to have any kind of offensive success against St. John’s. Kam is going to be instrumental in getting us to the number we need. It is going to be a legendary Senior Day performance.
I also see a path for the Johnnies to score today. It is going to be a bloodbath on the boards in favor of the Red Storm. Marquette ranks 252nd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage & that is the main reason they lost their most recent game to the Huskies. UConn outrebounded Marquette 19-8 on the offensive glass. It will be more of the same today. St. John’s ranks 9th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
I love the spot for this over. I love the matchup edges that we have. I love the soft & silky rims at Fiserv. What’s not to love? Best Bet.
Score Prediction:Marquette 76 – St. John’s 72
NC State/Miami over 149 : I have to give a shoutout to Stuckey for bringing this game to my attention earlier in the week.
I immediately started digging and fell in love with the over here. Miami has legitimately quit on the defensive end. I know that was a funny thing to say for most of the season, but it cannot be disputed at this point. The Canes rank near last in D1 in defensive efficiency over their last 5. They have allowed their last 4 opponents to shoot at least 52.5% from the field and are allowing 89.8 ppg over those four. They are a walking layup line.
NC State has also lost their bite defensively after following all the way out of the ACC Tournament. No magic run to the Final Four this year for Keatts. The Wolfpack have allowed 78.8 ppg over their last 5. Well above their season average.
There is no postseason on the horizon for either team after today. With the new mega conference model, teams like this don’t even get a chance to win their conference tournament in a league like the ACC. This is going to have an open gym feel, & I suspect we get a higher scoring affair with very little defensive intensity. Give me this gross (holy shit is it gross) over.
Score Prediction: NC State 78 – Miami 76
Tennessee -15.5 : Lord forgive me for this one. It’s always Forever To Thee.
South Carolina is a team that has cashed multiple Best Bets for us over the last few weeks. The Gamecocks are at the bottom of the conference, but they have been scrappy as hell at home. They printed money for us at Colonial Life Arena. When this team leaves the CLA, it is a different story. The Gamecocks are 0-8 on the road in the SEC losing by an average of 18.4 ppg. This includes a 14 point loss to the other cellar dwellers, LSU. South Carolina is going to really struggle to score today. Tennessee has moved all the way up to #2 in the country in effective FG% allowed per KenPom. They are also 1st in the SEC in shot selection allowed per ShotQuality. The Gamecocks rank 266th in effective FG% per KenPom, and are 11th in shot selection in the the SEC per SQ. Matchup. Edge.
Tennessee continues to have one of the better homecourt advantages in the country year after year. I like this spot for Senior Day. There is also a world where Tennessee could still snag the last 1 seed. It would be very difficult and they would need help, but a win today and and SECT crown could potentially get them there. There is incentive to put some style points out there today. Let’s BCS this shit. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 78 – South Carolina 56
UConn -18 : This one is personal for Dan Hurley. The Seton Hall alum has struggled with the Pirates in his coaching career. This includes a loss earlier this season that was a major blow to the Huskies resume. You could see on the broadcast how heated he was to be losing once again to Seton Hall. I think we are going to get unrelenting revenge today.
This is definitely a spot angle. We will likely see one of the better versions of UConn that we have all year long in a Senior Day atmosphere against Hurley’s alma mater.
However, analytics on our our side as well. We took 18 here and KenPom actually has this as a 17 point game on it’s own analytical merit without any other factors at play. The Seton Hall offense continues to be one of the worst watches in the game. The Pirates are now 359th in the country in ShotQuality PPP in the halfcourt. UConn is up to 22nd in defending in the halfcourt. That is going to be a death sentence in what will be an inferno atmosphere today. The ShotQuality regression model also shows that this is Seton Hall’s PPP true form based on the shots they are getting. This one is going to get ugly. Quick. I feel confident laying it here.
Score Prediction: UConn 81 – Seton Hall 57
Kansas -3 : This is the spot of all spots. Kansas needs this like they need air to breathe. They are going to get it.
Kansas really showed me something in the Houston game. They got absolutely battered on the turnover and offensive rebounding margin, but never gave up and kept one of the best teams in the country at arm’s length on the road. This team isn’t giving up. I feel confident back them in a rocking Senior Day – Allen Fieldhouse atmosphere today. They are graduating some stalwarts of this program over the last few years. The crowd will back them in a big way.
It might be Regression Monster time for Arizona.
This is the Regression Analysis on Arizona courtesy of ShotQuality (promo code: SNIPER25). The defensive profile is very concerning. Especially the Finishing at the Rim and Midrange numbers. Kansas is 6th in the country per ShotQuality in finishing at the rim. Hunter Dickinson and the Jayhawks are the team that is going to bring that regression to the mean. The Wildcats are due for a tick of offensive regression as well. Kansas is still KenPom’s 6th ranked defense in regards to adjusted efficiency. We are going to party with the Regression Monster at the best venue in college basketball. Let’s lay the short number here.
Brackets are back! Time to hunker down for the next month and win baby, win. We are going to keep the same model as years passed. One unit placed on each conference winning ticket for recording purposes. Play these however you’d like. Let’s bag another winning conference tournament season!
Sun Belt: James Madison +380 (DK)
The Dukes have gone through a complete roster overhaul & head coaching change from their lovable team from a season ago. JMU was a sexy pick to bag a first round upset in the Big Dance last year, and they delivered on that prediction. The Dukes knocked off Wisconsin as a #12 seed before bowling out in the 2nd round against Duke. A lot of the general public has dismissed JMU this year after the overhaul mentioned above. Not so fast my friend. The Dukes have reloaded. Preston Spradlin is a fantastic head coach. He is coming off of two NCAA tournament births with Morehead State over the past four years, and he knows what it takes to win a conference tournament. This is a top 100 offense in KenPom led by a three-headed backcourt monster of Mark Freeman, Bryce Lindsay and Xavier Brown. The Dukes also have a massive post presence in 6’11 Elijah Hutchins-Everett. JMU had won 10 (TEN!!) conference games in a row before losing to Texas State in double OT in their finale. This team is hot at the right time and got their loss out of the way. The Sun Belt also rewards the top seeds with significant byes. As the 2 seed, JMU will not play until the semifinal. Also, South Alabama and Arkansas State are on the other side of the bracket. At +380 I think this is fantastic value. Give me the Dukes.
Patriot League: Pass
I lean the favorite in Bucknell, but Colgate probably finds a way as they always do. The American/Colgate game will be a fun one. No conference winner ticket for this conference, but will likely get involved on a single game betting perspective.
NEC (Northeast): Pass
Central Connecticut likely wins as the favorite. Not laying the juice there.
Horizon League: Milwaukee +280 (DK)
This team has what it takes to run through a conference tournament. Don’t believe me? Believe the analytics.
This profile is courtesy of ShotQuality (promo code: SNIPER25). The Panthers are #1 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. #1! They are finally fully healthy and I believe they are poised to dominate the glass throughout the entirety of this Horizon tournament. This is a team who has won 5 out of 6, including a win over their first round opponent – Oakland. Yes, Oakland. Sorry everyone. The lovable Golden Grizzlies will bow out in the first round of the Horizon this year. The Panthers are too much for them around the rim. Milwaukee grabbed 16 offensive rebounds and shot 33 free throws against Oakland a week ago. Per the profile above, that is very repeatable. A win gets us to a semi against Youngstown State/PFW. I like the Panthers against either team. I will take the +280 here.
Ohio Valley Conference: Pass
Enjoy the madness here, folks. Your guess is as good as mine in this conference. It should be entertaining!
Big South: Pass
The High Point price is too rich. I really hope they win. We have been high on this team since the preseason. I would love to see what kind of matchup they would get slotted with in the Big Dance. This team has R64/R32 upset potential.
Summit League: South Dakota State +300(DK)
I considered taking a stab at North Dakota State here, but the injury doubt of Jacksen Moni pulled me away from the Bison. South Dakota State was the team I predicted to meet the Bison in the final (pre-Moni injury update), so I have no problem playing South Dakota State here. Oscar Cluff instantly becomes the most feared player in this tournament with the injury to Moni. The Washington State transfer has absolutely dominated the glass in conference play and currently sits 2nd nationally in rebounds per game. Cluff and the Jackrabbits are the class of the league in the interior.
They have bolstered their national ranks in conference play and this is where they are ranked in key areas per Shot Quality. I like their side of the Summit League bracket. St. Thomas was an incredible team at home this year, but struggled at times on the road. This tournament is played in Sioux Falls and will be a big time pro-Jackrabbit crowd. I think that matters. I’ll take the +300 here.
Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness): Illinois State +1800(Caesars)
There it is. Our first big time long shot of the conference tournament season. It is time for our Redbirds to put the world on notice. Don’t worry, Drake will get their at-large bid. This Illinois State team is supremely talented (relative to The Valley). Chase Walker is one of the best post-players in The Valley. They have an excellent inside/out game featuring Walker because the team shoots 38% from 3 and 75% from the stripe. This is a team that has knocked off Bradley and Belmont this year, and had a tonnnn of close losses that went against them against the class of the league. They lost 6 games to to the Top 4 seeds in the league by a combined 21 points. They have proven that they can compete at the highest level in the league and I will gladly take this longshot play on them. The Redbirds open with Missouri State who I think they will easily get by. They will then matchup with Belmont in the quarters. I think this is a great matchup for Illinois State. The Redbirds lost in OT by 2 points to Belmont in December, and avenged that loss at home in late January. I like Illinois State in the rubber match. Then you get the mighty Drake Bulldogs in the semis. I think we have a punchers chance there. Let’s get crazy, Arch Madness.
West Coast Conference: Gonzaga -120 (DK)
Like the Sun Belt, Gonzaga is slotted into the semifinals of the WCC Tournament. I think that the two teams that can cause problems in this tournament are on the opposite side of the bracket with Saint Mary’s (Oregon State & Santa Clara). I think Saint Mary’s has the potential to slip up against one of those teams, and I think Gonzaga cruises in their semifinal game. Gonzaga will be favored against whoever meets them in the final. Even if it is the Gaels, no way it is happening for a third time. Give me the Zags.
SOCON (Southern Conference):Pass
This conference is wide open. We will definitely be involved from a single game perspective, but no clear value on a winner here in my opinion.
Big Sky: Montana +310(DK)
We had to get involved in Starch Madness, right? Montana is the play here. Hot at the right time is an understatement. The Grizzlies are entering the Big Sky tournament winning 11 of their last 12 conference games. I like their side of the bracket in comparison to UNC (the other one), however these two very likely meet in the final. I will gladly take Montana +310.
Southland Conference: Pass
McNeese in a landslide. Not interested in laying the big number.
Colonial: Charleston +350(FD)
Towson was a fantastic regular season story, but Charleston is the class of this league and will prove it in the tournament setting. This is my favorite ticket.
North Florida -3.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FD) **Best Bet**
If you would like to leave a thank you from the recent hot streak (30-10 in last 40!), the tip jar is below. Not required, would be greatly appreciated!
threepointsniper.com 