I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 248-188
Season Best Bet Record: 77-49
NCAA Tournament Record: 27-10 (Best Bet: 7-2)
4/3 Card – Special Player Prop Edition:
*Disclaimer: These plays will not be added to the season/tournament record. We haven’t all year and do not want to skew the record now.*
Alex Karaban o7.5 points-119
Andre Jackson Jr. u0.5 threes made-105
Keshad Johnson o4.5 rebounds-108
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Alex Karaban o7.5 points : Danny Hurley has put his ultimate trust in this 6’8 freshman. Karaban is tied for 2nd on the team in minutes throughout the season, and has played 29.4 minutes per game in this tournament. Since March 1st, Karaban has cleared the 7.5 point threshold in 7 out of 9 games. More importantly, Karaban has made at least two three pointers in 7 out of those 9 games. He is now at 40.4% from distance on the season. When you pair that with his 48.1 FG% and 81.8 FT%, it is easy to make the claim that he is one of the most efficient shooters in the country. The upside for minutes played and the potential for three pointers makes this a play for me tonight.
Andre Jackson Jr. u0.5 threes made : This is a glaring weak spot in Andre Jackson’s game. He is only a 28.4% three point shooter on the season. Teams have been daring him to shoot them, but the UConn staff has developed a great game plan for Jackson to turn into a facilitator in those situations instead of letting them fly. Jackson has only made one three in the last 4 tournament games. That is on 5 attempts. With Jackson basically only shooting one three per game as of late, that makes this an excellent play. Also, the SDSU three point defense has been documented many times throughout this tournament. It is a real thing. Opponents only shoot 28.1% from three against them. Jackson may not even attempt a three tonight. If he does, I like our chances for a miss.
Keshad Johnson o4.5 rebounds: Keshad Johnson has been playing the most minutes of any frontcourt player for the Aztecs as of late. He is averaging close to 25 minutes per game since the Sweet 16 game vs Alabama. He has grabbed at least 5 rebounds in all three of those games. The stat that I love from Keshad is that he averages 1.5 offensive rebounds per game this season. I believe there is a great path to 5 rebounds tonight with that type of effort on both ends of the court. UConn rebounds very well as a team, but Keshad might be the most athletic guy on the court outside of Andre Jackson Jr. I see a great path for over 4.5 rebounds tonight.
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 246-188
Season Best Bet Record: 76-49
NCAA Tournament Record: 25-10 (Best Bet: 6-2)
4/1 Card:
FAU +3
UConn 1H -3
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FAU +3 : I know a lot of you were itching for the write-up earlier in the week, but I was waiting out for this gift that we were given on this Friday morning. The Owls have just touched +3 at Caesars and a few others. I will be locking in now for my Best Bet. I think the Owls win this game, but having a full three points in my pocket makes me feel even better. I would not call this a “comfortable” matchup by any means, but FAU will be coming into this game more confident that they can attack this defense given their recent success over Tennessee. The Aztecs play a similar style of defense to the Vols. They really pack the paint and try to use their size as an advantage, and then close out aggressively with their perimeter length. The way you defeat teams like this is with spacing and knockdown shooters. FAU continues to be one of the best teams in spacing the floor in the country. They are ranked 6th in the country in that metric coming into the game. They are also the 16th most efficient three point shooting team in the country. FAU is rotating 7 guards in 4 lineup spots, so they are always fresh and coming at you in waves. The Owls are also a top quadrant team when it comes to rebounding. SDSU will not be able to impose their will on the glass. Tennessee & KState learned that the hard way. This will be a lower total, and a close game. Give me the three points. If the line movement starts heading the other way, I would not play this below 2. Below is a snapshot from Shot Quality. Use promo code “SNIPER” for 30% off of all packages.
Score Prediction: FAU 67 – SDSU 65
UConn 1H -3 : Miami has had a fantastic run to get to the Final Four. Their shot making has been exceptional, and there is no doubting their ability on the offensive end. However, the defense remains a significant liability. They are 198th in the country in defensive efficiency. Their first halves are somehow rated out even worse. Miami ranks 258th in the country in opponents points per game in the 1H. The highly efficient UConn offense will be ready to pounce on this weakness. The Huskies rank 7th in the country in points per game in the 1h at 39.4 points per game. Also, UConn’s exceptional defense grades out well in the 1H. They rank 29th in the country in opponents points per game in the 1H. Miami will have to be very cautious with fouls early in this game. Especially in the front court. There is no depth and they won’t be able to risk a player receiving 3 fouls in the 1H. Look for Dan Hurley to press the issue by attacking the rim to exploit that. If Omier gets in foul trouble early, this could get ugly. I also like UConn full game -5.5, but will get out of this one early and pull for our +1600 pre-tournament future to make it to the title game without having to lay the points.
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 245-187
Season Best Bet Record: 76-48
NCAA Tournament Record: 24-9 (Best Bet: 6-1)
3/26 Card:
San Diego State +2.5
Miami/Texas 1H u70
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SDSU +2.5 : If this isn’t your first time following me, then you know that I have a Creighton future that I picked up in the preseason – 28/1. However, this is a not a hedge. My pick on SDSU was made through the lens of not considering my future ticket. I believe that the Aztecs have a real shot here. The biggest reason? Defense. I spotlighted the Aztecs defense in the Sweet 16 write-up when we backed SDSU against Alabama. They were 15th in the country in defensive efficiency throughout the season, and 1st in NCAA tournament play to that point. They backed that the hell up. They held the explosive Alabama offense to 64 points and retained their top spot in the tournament as the best defense. Their perimeter defense was on full display. They are #3 in the country in opponent three point percentage, and held the Tide to just 3-27 shooting from distance. If they are able to take the perimeter game away from Creighton, the Jays are going to be in a world of hurt. Dutcher is such an excellent defensive coach. I am going to repost the interview below that I shared in the last article. In a “one day to prepare” turnaround, I also think SDSU has an edge here. Creighton is a much easier prep after facing Alabama, than it is going to be for McDermott and his staff to go from Princeton to SDSU. Completely different styles of basketball. It is always nice when the Shot Quality model agrees with my picks. Below is a snapshot of their matchup breakdown. I had this game as a PK. I will take the 2.5 points here.
Score Prediction: San Diego State 68 – Creighton 67
Miami/Texas u70 : This is my Best Bet! A lot of the verbiage will be the same in this post as it was against Xavier, but the Texas 1H defense is the gift that keeps on giving. Texas’ 1H defense has been ELITE in their now 7 game winning streak. Here are their past 7 defensive performances in the 1H: Kansas 24 points, Oklahoma State 26 points, TCU 26 points, Kansas 33 points, Colgate 32 points, Penn State 23 points, Xavier 25 points. That is a 27 point average for their opponents in the 1H on this hot streak. Similarly to Xavier, the Texas frontcourt depth will be able to swallow up Omier as they did with Nunge. Rice, Hunter and Carr are very engaged on the defensive end and they are not going to give Pack and his teammates the same room from distance as they had against Houston. I am still in shock over that Houston defensive performance. That will puzzle me for a long time. It is also worth repeating again that the Texas defense does trend down after halftime, so I am not as confident in a full game play. We will get under the number in the 1H of this one and get out of there. If you are looking for a full game lean, Shot Quality supports a full game under. Below is a snapshot of their matchup breakdown:
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 243-187
Season Best Bet Record: 75-48
NCAA Tournament Record: 22-9 (Best Bet: 5-1)
3/25 Card:
FAU +2
UConn 1H -1
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FAU +2 : This is my Best Bet. Florida Atlantic is going to the Final Four. The haters are going to be furious, but the college basketball enthusiasts know how great this team is. There are a copious amount of tickets on Kansas State because people “want” Markquis Nowell to make a Final Four (I do too). The Wildcats are a super public play today. I am seeing 71% of tickets are currently on K-State. However, FAU is built to defend this Nowell playmaking style of offense. Florida Atlantic is 4th in the country in opponent assists per game. They only allow 8.2 per contest. The Owls are equipped to defend off-ball against the Wildcats when Nowell is trying to find cutters. Nowell was able to find this success consistently in their Sweet 16 game, but that is because Michigan State is horrific in defending off-ball and allowing opponent assists. The Spartans rank 203rd in that category. FAU should also find some success on the glass here. Kansas State continues to get obliterated in that metric this tournament. Meanwhile, the Owls are coming off of a game where they went toe-to-toe with Tennessee on the glass. I will share the main Shot Quality page again for FAU below. They have a stat profile that is built for tournament play. I believe that they will shock the world and head to Houston for the Final Four.
Score Prediction: FAU 74 – Kansas State 71
UConn 1H -1 : Gonzaga’s defense continues to be horrific. It will come back to bite them today. UCLA simply ran out of gas from that frenetic pace. The injuries caught up with the Bruins, and Gonzaga was able to pull away in the end. Mick probably should have read my write-up for that game (ha!). However, what have we seen from Gonzaga throughout this season and tournament? Their defense gets blasted in the 1H. The Zags rank 217th in the country in opponent 1H points per game. They allowed 36 points to Grand Canyon in R64, 38 points to TCU in the R32, and 46 to UCLA in the Sweet 16. Few is able to provide some adjustments at halftime to make them a tad (heavy on the tad) bit more competitive, but the Zags are just completely lost on that end of the court when the ball is tipped until the break. This UConn offense is HUMMING right now and should be able to take full advantage of that. The Huskies are 7th in the country in 1H scoring. They also have length and physicality to throw at Timme that UCLA was unable to do. I certainly do not see him reaching 30 points today. I also lean UConn for the full-game spread, but I believe that the edge is greater in the 1H due to the putrid Gonzaga 1H defense.
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 240-186
Season Best Bet Record: 75-47
NCAA Tournament Record: 19-8 (Best Bet: 5-0)
3/24 Card:
San Diego State +7.5
Houston -7
Princeton 1H +5.5
Xavier/Texas 1H u70
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San Diego State +7.5 : Brian Dutcher has been very deliberate about what the Aztecs’ plan is going to be tonight. This was a quote from his pre-game presser – “If we can turn it into a half court game — and this goes for any game, Mountain West games — I like our chances.” He has no interest in running up and down with Bama in this game. He knows that his offense is built to perform well in the halfcourt, and that his defense has a better chance of finding success if Alabama is not in transition and running downhill. This Aztec defense is elite. They are 15th in the country in defensive efficiency, and have tightened the screws even more recently. They have the #1 defensive efficiency in the tournament to this point. Say what you will about the seed lines that they have faced, but CofC and Furman have elite offenses. Charleston ended their season 21st in the country in offensive efficiency, and Furman finished 6th. Comparatively, Alabama ranks 34th. Now, I am not saying that CofC or Furman pose a bigger threat than Alabama .. but, I will say that this defense has the ability to make life tough for the Tide. Defensive intensity is in the DNA of SDSU. Below is a quote from Dutcher on how he views defense. I believe that SDSU will slow the pace & perform well enough on the defensive end to get us within the number here. This bet is also Shot Quality approved. See below for a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:
Score Prediction: Alabama 71 – SDSU 67
Houston -7 : This is my Best Bet! This is a very bad matchup for the Canes. I believe that Houston is going to wear them out on both sides of the floor. It needs to be said – Miami’s defense is just flat out not good. The Hurricanes are ranked 181st in the country in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Houston is the 4th ranked team in the country in offensive efficiency. The Cougars are going to put up an impressive number here. There is very little interior rim protection for the Canes. I am looking specifically at the Jarace Walker vs Jordan Miller matachup. Walker has a few inches and a 50+ pound advantage on Miller. Jarace is also the better athlete. Miller is going to have trouble keeping Walker off of the glass, and is basically going to have to give up some free attacks at the rim to avoid foul trouble. There is also a big matchup edge here defensively for Houston. The Cougars are 1st in the country in defensive efficiency. What is shocking is that Shot Quality shows that they are even getting a bit unlucky on that end of the floor (see below). With their size and interior defense, Miami’s only path to victory in this game would be to have a monster performance from deep. A lot of people are pointing to this and the shooting prowess of the Miami guards. However, you just don’t get good looks against this Houston team. They are 2nd in the country in 3pt % defense. Their perimeter defense is elite. Maybe more importantly, Houston is just going to dominate this game on the glass. Miami is only 157th in the country in keeping their opponents off of the offensive glass, and Houston ranks 4th in the country in offensive rebounding %. If Omier gets in any kind of foul trouble, this game will not be even competitive. Lastly, beware of the sexy public underdog here. 65% of the tickets are on Miami currently. However, the line has risen from Houston -6.5 at the open, to Houston -7.5 as of now. The spread is moving the opposite way of the percentage of tickets. You know what do do.
Score Prediction: Houston 76 – Miami 64
Princeton 1H +5.5 : Princeton is going to be in this game for a bit. They may not cover the full game spread, but I am comfortable in backing them in the 1st half. The biggest reason? Creighton is not built to create havoc for an inferior opponent. The Blue Jays rank 356th in the country in turning over their opponents. Princeton is also pretty good at holding on to the ball anyways. They are 74th in the country in not committing turnovers. Princeton can also handle their own on the glass. They are 17th in the country in defensive rebounding %. Granted, a lot of this is against an undersized Ivy League. However, it shows their commitment to not allowing free points to their opponents. I think Kalkbrenner will be able to have his way on the glass (purely from a size standpoint), but the Tigers should do well on the glass against the other Jays. Due to these turnover/rebounding statistics, I have come to the conclusion that Princeton will get off a very similar number of shots as Creighton. At least, early in the game. Also, Princeton has a great track record of competitive starts in tournament play in the first half: Down 1 to Penn in Ivy Semi, Up 4 on Yale in Ivy Final, Down 1 to Arizona in R64, Up 7 on Mizzou in R32. This team is not slipping behind and having to fight back. I believe they will be within this number when we hit the half.
Xavier/Texas 1H u70 : Texas’ 1H defense has been ELITE in this 6 game winning streak. Here are their past 6 defensive performances in the 1H: Kansas 24 points, Oklahoma State 26 points, TCU 26 points, Kansas 33 points, Colgate 32 points, Penn State 23 points. That is a 27.3 point average for their opponents in the 1H on this hot streak. Outside of Boum, I think Xavier may have a hard time getting out to a hot start. Nunge is going to have a lot of problems with the depth of the Texas frontcourt, and Carr & Rice can put the clamps on Kunkel and Claude. The Texas defense does trend down after halftime, so I am not as confident in a full game play. We will get under the number in the 1H of this one and get out of there. If you are looking for a full game lean, Shot Quality supports a full game under. Here is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown. Use promo code “SNIPER” for 30% off of all membership packages at shotqualitybets.com
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 237-185
Season Best Bet Record: 74-47
NCAA Tournament Record: 16-7 (Best Bet: 4-0)
3/23 Card:
Kansas State +2
UConn -3.5
FAU +5.5
Zags/UCLA u146
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Kansas State +2 : The “Little Kid” Markquis Nowell busted Coach Cal’s ass on the way to this Sweet 16 matchup. The NYC native was not going to be denied his chance for glory in the Garden. Now that Nowell and the Cats achieved their initial goal of getting the Mecca, I believe that they have the tools to take down Izzo and the Spartans. If you are thinking that Izzo will be a difference maker, have no fear. His March experience has been baked into this line. Kansas State opened as a 2 point favorite, and now sit as 2 point dogs. This should at worst be a pick’em, so I will gladly take the 2 points here. We can talk about the playmaking of Markquis Nowell, or the shot making of Keyonte Johnson .. but I want to talk about the Kansas State defense. I love the intensity that we have seen from the Wildcats’ defense. They have forced 32 turnovers in the NCAA Tournament so far. It was the difference in the Kentucky game. They got blasted on the boards, but their defense was able to keep them in the game. Their pressure defense is aggressive and precise, and they are elite in transition on the fastbreak. They are also due for some positive improvement on their defensive shooting percentage splits (listed below). Meanwhile, the Michigan State offense is due for some offensive regression on their shooting percentages. I am betting on Kansas State to win a close one behind their pressure defense.
Score Prediction: Kansas State 70 – Michigan State 67
UConn -3.5 : Our Huskies were the most impressive team of the opening week of the tournament. I mentioned it in a tweet, but they just look so damn explosive. They can attack you from every level, and the deep rotation is full of quality players. The 2nd unit never seems to miss a beat. I believe that the attack will be similar tonight to the one they implemented against Saint Mary’s. They will be able to use Sanogo and Clingan to bully the Hogs in the post. Arkansas will finally feel their early season loss of Trevon Brazile in this tournament. Kamani Johnson and the Mitchell brothers just have no hope of containing the frontline of the Huskies. Especially, with Andre Jackson canceling out Jordan Walsh from a wing perspective. Arkansas was able to complete a comeback against an undersized KU frontcourt by dominating the offensive glass 15-7. I can assure you, that will not happen tonight. UConn is the best rebounding team in the country. Also, UConn is just the most complete team in the country in my opinion. Below is a quick snapshot of the stats that I used to come to that conclusion before the tournament even started. The Huskies march on the the Elite 8 rather easily tonight.
UConn (D1 ranks):
O-Eff – 10th D-Eff – 14th REB Rate – 2nd O REB % – 1st Block % – 9th 3's/game – 29th AST/TO Ratio – 37th FT % – 50th
UConn is my pick to cut the nets down in Houston after dissecting the bracket. Officially locking in at +1600. Let's cook @UConnMBB 🧑🍳🔥 pic.twitter.com/Z1tR8qvu0V
FAU +5.5 : This is my Best Bet. FAU is a very live dog here. I actually have them winning a close one. We have been all over Tennessee in the first two rounds. Including, the sweet, sweet victory over Duke. However, this FAU team is constructed to give Tennessee similar problems to the ones that caused them to suffer defeats throughout this season. The Tennessee defense is susceptible to slipping in efficiency when you spread them out. They can’t lean on their size, and their ball screen defense to get out to three point shooters is not strong at all. I learned that the hard way in the SEC Tournament when I was on the Vols against Mizzou. Mizzou was able to space Tennessee out and use their athleticism to get dunks and open threes. The Tigers were able to make 10 threes in that game. Mizzou is 17th in the country in offensive efficiency. Comparatively, FAU is coming into this Sweet 16 matchup ranked 13th in offensive efficiency. They will be able to use their guards and spacing to get a lot of the same looks that Mizzou did against Tennessee. As you can see below on a screenshot of the FAU Shot Quality team profile, they are proficient at spacing and nailing down three balls. I am still higher on the Vols than most, but this is a bad matchup for their personnel. The Owls move on to the Elite 8!
Score Prediction: FAU 67 – Tennessee 65
Gonzaga/UCLA u146 : It is going to behoove Mick Cronin to slow this game to a crawl. The Bruins are already without Jaylen Clark, and they are going to be playing this game with a hobbled David Singleton and Adem Bona. With knowing how athletic and explosive the Zags are, UCLA is going to have to find a way to slow this game down to give their defense a chance to shine in the halfcourt. They are not equipped to run and gun with the current state of their roster. This isn’t out of the norm for the Bruins though. They are 247th in the country in tempo. They welcome a slower pace of game anyways, so they will have no problem putting that stamp on the game tonight. Look for Mick to throw some half-ass three quarter court pressure to get the shot clock to around 20 when Gonzaga is starting their offense on a regular basis. This is purely a tempo play for me. I think that both offenses can score in the halfcourt fairly easily here, but Mick Cronin will hopefully slow this one down enough to get us below this total. No OT plz.
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 221-177
Season Best Bet Record: 70-46
3/14 Card:
Toledo +7.5
Bradley +3.5
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Toledo +7.5 : This is my Best Bet. The market has definitely agreed with my early play here, and the line has dropped to 6 at most books. I think it is still good to play there. This will be a one possession either way in my opinion. What is Michigan’s desire to put out their best performance tonight? They will be playing in a very sleepy Crisler Center in a tournament they wanted no part of being in. Hunter Dickinson even used the NIT selection show as a comedic bit on his podcast, Roundball. Meanwhile, Toledo is full of veteran players who are pissed off after losing in the MAC Final. However, the NIT isn’t beneath these guys. Tod Kowalczyk has said his guys are locked in and eager to prove themselves by brining home a NIT championship. Also, let’s be honest here.. Dennis, Millner and Shumate would all start for this Michigan team. RayJ Dennis is 30th in the country in ppg (19.7), and 16th in assists (5.7). One of the most underrated point guards in the country. Michigan ranks 113th in the country in defensive efficiency, and the high powered Toledo offense should have their way against this average defense. Here is also a great stat about the Michigan interior defense from Shot Quality – “Toledo Finishing at the Rim Frequency is 18th. They are 4-1 ATS & to the over against teams ranked between 211-280 at defending this playtype. Michigan ranked 275.” The SQ model agrees with my side and has this as a Michigan 4 point win. Use Promo Code: SNIPER for 30% off all packages on their site!
Score Prediction: Michigan 78 – Toledo 76
Bradley +3.5 : This is a bad matchup for Wisconsin. Bradley is Wisconsin JR. from a playstyle standpoint. The Braves run many of the same offensive sets as the Badgers. They also play at about the same pace. The Badgers are 335th in tempo, and Bradley is 317th. Wisconsin ran into problems against teams who also like to slow the game down throughout their Big 10 season. They were 1-4 straight up against Maryland, Northwestern and Rutgers who all love to play a slow style of ball. This is also the same scenario as the Toledo/Michigan game. A mid-major who is hungry after losing their conference title game vs. a Big 10 team who could not give two shits about being there. I think that Wisconsin will also struggle with the versatility of Mast, Leons and Henry. Crowl is going to be lost following around whoever Gard decides to match him up with. Wisconsin had a woeful performance in that do-or-die Big 10 tournament opener against an undermanned Ohio State team, and I just do not see them getting off of the mat here. I have Bradley winning a close one in a low possession game.
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 216-177
Season Best Bet Record: 69-46
3/11 Card:
Purdue -4.5 1H & o133
Texas +2
Marquette -2
Arizona PK
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Purdue -4.5 1H & o133 : Unlucky to not get home with the Boilermakers yesterday, but we won’t let that stop us for going right back to them today. This matchup edge could not be greater today. Purdue absolutely blew the doors off of Ohio State a few weeks ago. The final was 82-55. The Buckeyes had Zed Key and Brice Sensabaugh in that game as well. Key is the Buckeyes’ best interior defender, so this is going to be a Edey 30 point watch from the tip. Also, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer took a while to get acclimated to their first Big 10 tournament game yesterday for Purdue. With that first game under their belt, I believe they will play much better today on the offensive end. Loyer should have a lot of room on the perimeter to get hot. This is Ohio State’s fourth game in 4 days. I believe that they are going to really struggle on the defensive end of the court today. There just won’t be enough left in the tank with the amount of minutes played + injuries to their rotation. Purdue should get out big here and not look back. Purdue full game is worth a look as well for sure. I just have more conviction on the 1H and the over.
Texas +2 : This is my Best Bet. The defensive transformation over the last week has been so impressive from the Longhorns. They are a legitimate title contender now. With a three game sample size I can definitively say that. It wasn’t just a one game aberration when they held Kansas to 59 points last weekend. They backed that performance up in the Big 12 tournament with holding Oklahoma State to 47 points, and TCU to 60 points. The team chemistry also looks very improved. Timmy Allen willed his teammates to victory from the bench yesterday. He made sure that the energy and vibes were high at all times even though he couldn’t suit up. The emergence of Disu and Bishop is also elevating this team. They are playing their best ball of the season, and they should be able to excel against an undersized KU frontcourt. I also expect Kansas to sit Kevin McCullar today. His back spasms were giving him fits yesterday and risking him to more injury today before the tournament next week is just not worth it. Kansas is comfortably a 1 seed with a win or loss today. Kansas will really miss his rebounding and toughness on the defensive end. He is the ultimate glue guy for the Jayhawks. Texas will continue their hot streak and win the Big 12 Championship today. Hook Em.
Score Prediction: Texas 75 – Kansas 70
Marquette -2 : Tyler Kolek just continues to show the country that he is the best college point guard in the game right now. People may argue that Yuri Collins is the best distributor in the country (I won’t be mad at ya), but in reality it is Tyler Kolek. This kid just makes winning plays at all times. From Kolek to Shaka, this team just has a confidence about them that no team can seem to shake. Marquette does not give a damn what you think. They are just going to go out there and beat you anyway they can. The selflessness on this team is so fun to watch. They truly do not care who gets their flowers on a given night. Sure, Marquette was happy with the regular season Big East Championship. But, this team is cocky & hungry. They want that tournament title as well to leave no doubt that they are the class of the conference. The Golden Eagles have been able to heat up the Xavier offense this season with pressure. The Musketeers have 27 turnovers in two games vs Marquette this season. With the pressure of a title on the line, I suspect that Marquette can excel in doing this again today. I think that Marquette can also dominate the glass today. Especially, if Nunge gets into foul trouble. Marquette dominated the offensive glass 15 to 4 in the last meeting. The Golden Eagles will lift the Big East trophy in the Garden.
Score Prediction: Marquette 78 – Xavier 73
Arizona PK : The Bruins backcourt will run out of gas today against a deep Arizona team. Campbell, Singleton, & Jaquez have all cleared 35 minutes the last two nights. Bailey has cleared 30 in both. With this being the third game in 3 days, I suspect we will see some heavy legs from the Bruins. They will really miss Jaylen Clark in this one. Not just from a minutes distribution standpoint, but he was a major factor in helping the Bruins even this season series the last time out before he was injured in the game. He had 11 points & 4 steals in just 15 minutes. He was definitely the catalyst in the comeback. Also, Tubelis and Ballo have been fantastic in Vegas. The Wildcats are a Top 5 team in the country when those two are playing the way they are right now. I like Arizona in a close one here.
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 214-174
Season Best Bet Record: 69-45
3/10 Card:
Purdue -6.5
Tennessee -5
Temple/Cincinnati u142
Oregon +6
Texas -2.5
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Purdue -6.5 : The Scarlet Knights gave the Purdue their first loss of the season this year. That will not be lost on the Boilermakers. They have also heard the noise of the country collectively now labeling them overrated. I think this will be a great chance for them to assert themselves against an inferior opponent while trying to obtain a 1 seed and showing the country that they are still elite. The important part about this matchup is that Smith and Loyer will be able to compete defensively. Rutgers is 211th in the country in offensive efficiency and that number is continuing to slide. Purdue also made the mistake of getting away from Edey in the first game. He had no issues with the Rutgers’ interior defense. He was 6-10 from the field, and 7-9 from the line. He also grabbed 5 offensive rebounds. Painter will be sure to use his biggest weapon to their advantage today. If they outlast UCLA this weekend, then they will secure a 1 seed. This feels like a wire-to-wire comfortable win for the Boilers on fresh legs.
Score Prediction: Purdue 70 – Rutgers 60
Tennessee -5 : This is my Best Bet. Rick Barnes has had massive success in this tournament since lifting this program to a national contender. The Vols have made the Final of the SEC Tournament in three out of the last four years, and won the whole thing last season. Tennessee is a veteran squad and many of those players are still on this team. This tournament winning experience is a massive advantage here over the upstart Mizzou Tigers. Also, this game is being played in Nashville. Bridgestone Arena will feel like Thompson-Boling at times. Mizzou won the only meeting between these teams earlier this season on a miraculous buzzer beater. They also hit 14 threes. An 86-85 final is extremely out of the norm for a Tennessee game. Mizzou only turned the ball over 7 times that night, and I think that we will see that number heavily rise today. They average 11.5 turnovers on the season and Tennessee is Top 20 in the country in turning their opponents over. I also expect Tennessee to dominate the glass again. The Vols are 5th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, and pulled down 15 of them against Mizzou in that last meeting. JJJ and Julian Phillips returning to full health has picked up the spirits of this team after losing Zeigler. I believe that the coaching advantage and home court atmosphere will carry the Vols to another SEC Tournament semifinal. This bet is Shot Quality approved. Below is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:
Score Prediction: Tennessee 76 – Mizzou 65
Temple/Cincinnati u142 : Both teams bring a key piece to our under today. Temple likes to slow it down and work the halfcourt offense when they can. They are 179th in tempo. Cincinnati can also play slow at times, and is a Top 90 defense in the country in regards to efficiency. The first game of this series ended on 131 and was a pace that I would expect from these two teams. The 2nd game ended on 169 points. However, there were 21 points scored in an OT frame. The game ended on 148 in regulation, but the pace was still pointing towards an under. We just saw 18 threes and 45 free throw makes in that game. These two teams will play to an under pace again today in a tournament setting.
Score Prediction: Cincinnati 70 – Temple 68
Oregon +6 : Dana Altman always pushes the right buttons in tournament play. He has made the Pac 12 Championship game in 4 out of the last 6 seasons. It is also imperative that his team performs well in the Pac12 Tournament this year because they are on the outside looking in of the NCAA Tournament field. The Ducks just may be peaking at the right time though. They have won four straight entering this game with UCLA tonight. They will need that hot form to contend with a great UCLA team. However, this is not the same UCLA team that Oregon lost to by 7 points on February 11th. The Bruins are going to be without Jaylen Clark for the remainder of the season due to a torn achilles. He was a major factor in that win over Oregon. He scored 13 points in the 70-63 win, and also recorded 4 steals. This should give Oregon confidence that they can tighten up the turnover woes that they had from the previous game, and give UCLA a run for their money. I like the Ducks to keep it close here.
Score Prediction: UCLA 69 – Oregon 66
Texas -2.5 : This was close to a Best Bet. I know that our Hornies looked great yesterday in their win over Kansas State. However, they are really going to feel the absence of Eddie Lampkin against the frontcourt of Texas. He had 14 rebounds in the two games vs Texas this season, and really served Jamie Dixon well by filling the gaps in the post to prevent Texas’ drives to the rim. Also, the Texas defense has been DOMINANT over the past two games. They held Kansas to just 59 points in their regular season finale, and then followed that up by only allowing 47 points to Oklahoma State in the Quarterfinal of the Big 12 Championship. This team is peaking at the right time and my preseason future aint looking so bad after all!
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 206-166
Season Best Bet Record: 67-42
3/6 Card:
UNCW/Hofstra u134.5
Furman -4
BYU/Saint Mary’s o128
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UNCW/Hofstra u134.5 : Best Bet of the night! There should be a walking pace in this one tonight. The Pride are 223rd in the country in pace, and the Seahawks are 321st. If you add a semifinal conference tournament atmosphere into the equation, I believe these teams will play even slower. Both of these teams also rank in the Top 75 in defensive efficiency. Another reason to love a low scoring affair tonight is that both teams love to take the worst shots in the game from an efficiency standpoint. Shot Quality’s data shows that UNCW takes the 13th most mid-range shots in the country, and Hofstra is at 73rd. They both also rank 302nd and 305th in the country in attacking the rim. Hofstra is 362nd out of 363 teams in free throw rate. There are a lot of factors in our favor tonight. The only trepidation is that both offenses looked awesome yesterday, but we also have to take in consideration the quality of opponent and tempo. I expect today to play much closer to their offensive norm. The market has pushed this number all of the way down to 132.5. I would still play it there, but I would not go below 132. I have this game as a 130 total.
Score Prediction: Hofstra 68 – UNCW 62
Furman -4 : The Paladins will be going dancing after tonight. Jake Stephens getting to play in the First Four is a narrative that has been floating around Twitter over the last few days, but the Moc’s defense will be sure to put that narrative to bed tonight. Chattanooga is ranked 278th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bob Richey offense had no problems defeating the Mocs twice already this season. The slashing action of Bothwell and Slawson caused all kinds of problems for Chattanooga. The Paladins had a 20-25 free throw night in both games. That is a repeatable trend that we will see again tonight. The Paladins are a safe bet to clear 20+ free throws. This is Dan Earl’s first year leading the Mocs. He was unsuccessful at reaching the tournament in his 7 years at VMI. He also did not have a winning record in any of those seasons. Bob Richey has had 20+ wins in 5 out of his 6 seasons as the head coach of Furman. He has also yet to reach the “Big Dance”, but he finally will reach the top of the SoCon mountain tonight.
Score Prediction: Furman 79 – Chattanooga 72
BYU/Saint Mary’s o128 : This is the third time these two teams will face off this year. The previous totals closed at 129.5 and 130. The matchup went well under in the first game, but cleared 130 in Moraga in the latest meeting. 136 points in that one. The pace sped up and the defensive sets were not working as effectively. Also, there were 23 made free throws in that game, compared to only 13 in the first. I trust that the free throw number will be closer to the most recent affair due to the do-or-die nature of this game for BYU. Also, the Cougars have been unable to stop Mahaney and Johnson in either contest this year. If they are able to get going tonight, we should easily cruise over this total. This bet is Shot Quality approved. Below is a preview of their Value Finder:
threepointsniper.com 