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12/8 Starting Five Write-Up

(photo: Deseret News)

I will do my best to provide *at least* a daily group of 3-5 picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 (3-2) night. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay! 20/21 Season: 58%

Season Record: 85-79-6

12/8 Starting Five:

WVU -2

Indiana +5

EMU -1

Cornell +18

Utah State +8

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WVU -2 : The Huskies are walking into WVU Coliseum without two of their three best players. That is not a good recipe to get a road win against one of the most hostile crowds in basketball. The Mountaineer faithful will definitely be rowdy for a Top 15 UConn team rolling in. The Huskies will greatly miss Sanogo in the post, but I think they will miss Tyrese Martin’s perimeter defense the most. Taz Sherman and the Mountaineers will be firing from range during this one. That is where their bread will be buttered. His running mate, Sean McNeil, is reportedly ready to go tonight. If McNeil plays, this turns into a lock for me. I still like the value at the current price if he does not. As always, it is probably a good idea to back a favored unranked team at home vs a ranked opponent.

Score Prediction: WVU 74 – UConn 68

Indiana +5 : I think this will be a big game for TJD and Rayce Thompson. Their athleticism cannot be match by Wisconsin in the post. Look for many put-back opportunities for these two tonight. They will need to come up big at the free throw line. I also like this matchup for Miller Kopp. The defensive makeup / pace of Wisconsin will feed into his strengths. The X-Factor for the Hoosiers is Xavier Johnson. He is a streaky player, but if he is right tonight Indiana could pull out a road upset. I would have this as a PK on a neutral court, so have to ride with the +5 in this situation. I don’t hate the idea of a ML sprinkle..

Score Prediction: Wisconsin 69 – Indiana 67

Eastern Michigan -1 : There is a significant edge on the offensive side on the ball in this matchup. The Eagles have three guards that are averaging double figures, and Niagra only has one player on the roster averaging double figures. Who will hit the big shots on the road? Probably nobody. Also, I really love Siena transfer, Colin Golson Jr. He is a 6’6 versatile forward that can find his own shot, make free throws, and defend. This one could get ugly to watch, but I like the offense and home court advantage for EMU on a 1 point spread.

Score Prediction: EMU 69 – Niagara 64

Cornell +18 : Virginia Tech is not in any shape to blow someone’s doors off right now. Especially, against a Cornell team that is averaging 84.6 points per game. That ranks 11th nationally. While, VT poses more of a threat defensively than anyone Cornell has seen so far.. I am not convinced that the Hokies will score enough in this game to cover an 18 point spread. Storm Murphy continues to be lost in Blacksburg. I will ride with who is hot, instead of who is not.

Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 75 – Cornell 63

Utah State +8 : Too many points are being given to one of the most efficient teams in the country to start the year. This team shares the ball, shoots 80% from the stripe, and is lethal from downtown. 70 made threes through 8 games. BYU really struggled against the inside presence of Gaige Prim last time out, and I think Brandon Horvath and Justin Bean can take advantage in the post as well. Bean is finally having the breakout season we thought he could have. He has always been a fantastic role player, but he has emerged into a star. He is averaging 22 & 12.5, while shooting 88% from the line & 56% from distance. BYU squeaks out a close one in my opinion, so we will take the 8 point spread.

Score Prediction: BYU 71 – Utah State 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/7 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Southern Conference)

Season Record: 85-76-6

12/7 Three Ball:

Furman -2

Saint Louis -2

Syracuse +9

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Furman -2 : Bob Richey’s group is coming off of a big-time comeback against CofC in OT last Friday night. The Paladins were down 15 in the 2H, and stormed all of the way back to steal that one. You could see the passion in the players after the game. They knew that was a big win. This team has its sights set on March after their big win at Louisville earlier in the season. They need to win these games against tough in-state opponents. Playing Winthrop in Rock Hill is definitely a tricky spot, but I am not high on the Eagles this season. Pat Kelsey developed a great program at Winthrop, but he has left and is in his first season with CofC. Following his departure, the majority of Winthrop’s playmakers hit the portal. I do not love the make-up of the team this year. A DJ Burns + Corey Hightower led group will not be able to hang with the Paladins tonight in my opinion. Furman will be able to play at their pace, and use Slawson, Bothwell and Hunter effectively in their offense. This team ranks 31st nationally in assists/game through a tough early schedule. I really love the progression of Jalen Slawson this season. Not only is he averaging 17 & 9 .. but he is shooting 57% from the field, and averaging 2.4 blocks & 2.1 steals. This man can truly do it all on both ends of the court. I had this game at Furman -5.5, so I will gladly take the -2.

Score Prediction: Furman 79 – Winthrop 73

Saint Louis -2 : I actually love this matchup for the Billikens. I am high on Belmont, but this will be daunting task for them in Chaifetz Arena. I believe the Billikens will have a sizable advantage on the glass and in transition tonight. Their athleticism cannot be matched by the Bruins. Also, Saint Louis is a team that can welcome a shooting match with Belmont. The Billikens are shooting an impressive 39% from distance as a team this season. I trust Yuri Collins to be a floor general tonight, and Jimerson + others to make some big shots. They will get it done tonight behind a rocking home atmosphere. Selection Sunday implications here…

Score Prediction: Saint Louis 76 – Belmont 72

Syracuse +9 : Jumped on this at the open. I cannot fathom why the line sits this high on a “neutral” court. MSG should actually be pretty orange tonight. I think Syracuse will be in this game for a large majority of it, and may even have this down to one possession at the end. Cuse runs similar action to Nova on the offensive side of the ball, and I do not believe Nova has a sizable advantage over Cuse defensively. Nova has been electric shooting the ball this season, but we all know what Girard & the Boeheim Bros can do from distance Also, don’t overlook that this is a Cole Swider revenge game. Swider played three seasons for the Wildcats, and always loves to show up in big moments. He is averaging 16.5ppg over his last 4, and I think he has a big night at MSG.

Score Prediction: Villanova 74 – Syracuse 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/6 Starting Five Write-Up

(photo: Chicago Tribune)

Season Record: 81-75-6

12/6 Starting Five:

Illinois +3.5

Coastal Carolina -2

Towson +5.5

PC/Morehead St. o121

New Mexico +5

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Illinois +3.5 : I think this is a very bad matchup for Iowa. Especially, if Keegan Murray is forced to miss this one as well. There is nobody on the Hawkeye roster that will be able to compete with Kofi Cockburn & Coleman Hawkins on the glass. Also, the defensive ineptness of a Fran McCaffery coached squad will rear its ugly head tonight. Trent Frazier and Alfonso Plummer will both have the luxury of going at Jordan Bohannon at different times tonight. Iowa has had a surprising start to the season, but the talent and coaching edge are with the Illini in this game. Sprinkle the ML.

Fun Stat Time: Illinois has won its last three Big Ten road games, and 8 of its last 9. Illinois also leads the B1G with a record of (30-11) over the last 41 games. – courtesy of @takhtehchianmd on Twitter

Score Prediction: Illinois 78 – Iowa 73

Coastal Carolina -2 : Things are cooking down in Myrtle Beach! The Chants are coming off back-to-back wins over South Carolina and Winthrop. Cliff Ellis has brought in great pieces to fit with his returning squad this season. Rudi Williams (Kansas State) and Vince Cole (St. John’s) are filling in beautifully for the hole that Devante’ Jones left. In a returning role, Essam Mustafa is building nicely off of his excellent freshman season. He is averaging a 16/10 double-double to start the year. Coastal also has a game changer at the point guard position. Ebrima Dibba is a 6’6 PG that can score, assist and rebound exceptionally well. His game is comparable to Abu Kigab (Boise State) when Kigab takes over the point guard reigns for the Broncos. I like the Chants to keep it cooking tonight against a Mercer team that has disappointed me this season.

Score Prediction: Coastal Carolina 72 – Mercer 67

Towson +5.5 : There was value in this spread above 3.5 in my opinion. I will gladly take +5.5. I do not believe the market is accounting for the returns of Jason Gibson, Antonio Rizzuto and Juwan Gray. Gibson and Rizzuto will greatly help this team that is struggling from distance, and Juwan Gray brings a defensive and rebounding presence back to the lineup. Holden and Nolan Jr. are exceptional at the guard position, and will carry us inside the number of a lower scoring game tonight. Side note: Malique Jacobs missed the last game for Kent State. I can’t find any info on if this will be a lingering issue. That will be a huge factor tonight if he is out again.

Score Prediction: Kent State 65 – Towson 63

PC/Morehead St. 0121 : I think Morehead could have their way with the Blue Hose tonight. However, I do not trust the defense of the Eagles to lay a double digit number. Instead, I will look to the over. PC has nobody that can check Johni Broome in the post. He will likely push 20 tonight. The Eagles are also a team that can get hot from behind the three point line. Tray Hollowell is a Wofford transfer, and you know they are trained to snipe. The Eagles do struggle defensively though. 200th in the nation in defensive efficiency. A bad PC team should find some ways to score. We will easily cross the total of 121 in my opinion.

Score Prediction: Morehead St. 70 – PC 58

New Mexico +5 : I will gladly take the 5 points at home in this rivalry game. I do not agree with the line movement this morning. I just think the Lobos have the better team this season. I know that bettors are probably figuring that NMSU will get the split tonight, but I don’t see that to be the case. Jamal Mashburn Jr. has turned into a star, and Jaelen House has also morphed into a reliable scorer. The NMSU offense can get very stagnant at times with Teddy Allen and Sir’Jabari Rice trying to iso and find their own shot. The Lobos share the ball very well and scored 101 points on this Aggies team a week ago. I think the Lobos run the double on the Aggies..

Score Prediction: New Mexico 78 – New Mexico St. 76

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/3 Starting Five Write-Up

(photo: New York Post)

I will do my best to provide *at least* a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay! 20/21 Season: 58%

Season Record: 69-65-1

12/3 Starting Five:

St John’s +7

CofC +7

Monmouth -2

Illinois -4.5 1H

Iowa +12.5

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St John’s +7 : Too many points. I smell an upset brewing here. Even if not, this game will be decided inside of two possessions. The Red Storm pose a big threat for the Jayhawks. They can match them athletically, and have Soriano to bang with McCormack. I think Jalen Wilson could pose a defensive threat for Julian Champagnie, however I believe that Remy Martin & Christian Braun will really struggle defending the likes of Posh Alexander, Montez Mathis and Stef Smith in this one. Both are elite on the offensive end, but St John’s has the edge on defense. The Red Storm rank 50th nationally in defensive efficiency, and the Jayhawks come in at 138. The Red Storm pull off the upset behind the home crowd.

Score Prediction: St John’s 76 – Kansas 73

CofC +7 : The Cougars are playing as the fastest team in the country under Pat Kelsey. This could pose a threat for the Paladins, because I believe they will get out and run and match their pace. CofC is 5-2 ATS coming into this game, and the Paladins just have not looked like themselves in their last three. Bothwell has really been struggling from the field. Also, I love Kelsey’s freshman point guard, Reyne Smith. He is an Australian that has played at the FIBA national level for the Aussies. He has proven to be a lethal weapon from three, and can always hit a big shot to thwart a run. I like the Cougs to keep this close.

Score Prediction: Furman 82 – CofC 78

Monmouth -2 : I am still the lead conductor on the George Papas train. I cannot believe that the transfer portal didn’t gobble him up, but luckily for the Hawks he came back for his senior year. It is not just the Papas show, however. The Hawks are shooting 85% from the line, and 40% from distance. Love, love, love. Also, they have added a secret weapon to the mix from former UNC walk-on, Walker Miller. Miller is a 6’10 stretch forward that is producing a 14.8ppg/7.5rpg stat line. He is also shooting an out of this world 96% from the stripe, and is getting there a ton. Hawks win.

Score Prediction: Monmouth 71 – Niagara 65

Illinois 1H -4.5 : We backed Rutgers in what was a “must win” at home the other night. However, they will be sent back to reality today by the Illini. No Geo Baker will prove to be too big of a loss in this one. Trent Frazier quickly came back from injury, and the Illini seem to be back on track with their sparkplug. There is no offensive threat for Rutgers outside of Ron Harper Jr., and Illinois has the defensive weapons to shut him down. I like the full game spread as well, but 1H makes more sense to me. Illinois will get out hot and by up by 10 at the break.

Score Prediction: 1H Illinois 38 – Rutgers 28

Iowa +12.5 : I don’t know why I am getting in front of the Boilermaker train, but here we are. It is simply just too many points though. I think this is a great time to sell high on Purdue. They are a top 3 team in the country, no doubt .. but they are not a -12.5 spread favorite over an undefeated Iowa team. I had this at 8.5, so I will take the four points of variance and hope that we don’t get steamrolled. Iowa showed early in the season that they were an elite offense against inferior opponents, but they showed that they were for real on that end of the court the other night in Charlottesville. Not many teams will score 75 points on the Cavs this year. Even if this gets stretched at times, we have the offensive arsenal to bring us back in the number.

Score Prediction: Purdue 82 – Iowa 73

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

12/1 Mega Card Write-Up

(photo: The Athletic)

Season Record: 61-60-1

12/1 Mega Card:

Wisconsin -3
Cincy -3
Norfolk St +3
Richmond -3
SIU -2
Sparty -4
Maryland PK
Wazzou -2
UF PK
TTU -2
UNC +3

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Wisconsin -3 : Other than Keegan Murray, has anyone improved their draft stock like Johnny Davis in this young season? I believe the answer is no. Davis has been absolutely electric on both ends of the floor. Watching tape from their game without him against Providence, compared to the Maui with him, is quite eye opening. He is the difference maker. Georgia Tech brings nothing to the table outside of Devoe and Usher. I really think the Wisconsin defense will make it a struggle for the Jackets to score. Also, Crowl and Wahl should have a field day in the post.

Score Prediction: Wisconsin 69 – Georgia Tech 61

Cincy -3 : I am flushing the performance against Monmouth. It was just a poor shooting night. The guard play from this team has been exceptional in Wes Miller’s first season. They are turning the ball over only 9.6 times per game. That ranks 16th in the country. Also, I really love the way Miller is using a platoon approach in the post. Fouls are not racking up, and bodies are staying fresh. Don’t overthink this one. Getting a discount from the Monmouth game.

Score Prediction: Cincinnati 75 – Miami OH 67

Norfolk State +3 : Riding the Spartans until they don’t cover. Also, UNCW is coming off of a week where they canceled two games due to flu in the locker room. Stamina issue tonight?

Score Prediction: Norfolk State 70 – UNCW 68

Richmond -3 : A little “hungry dog runs faster” action tonight. Richmond is coming off of an impressive showing in the Bahamas with close losses to Maryland and Mississippi State. Two teams that have a real shot at dancing this year. Richmond was in both of those games until the end, and probably feel unfortunate to not come away with a win in either. Wofford, on the other hand, is coming off of a nice Power 5 win over Georgia on the road. I have a slight feeling that Richmond could want this one a little more. Also, I really believe that the loss of Messiah Jones will start to prove to be an issue for the Terriers. There is nobody on that team that will be able to guard Tyler Burton tonight. Nathan Cayo is also probably due for a big game. Spiders get a big road win tonight.

Score Prediction: Richmond 75 – Wofford 69

Southern Illinois -2 : Yes, back to my Salukis. I just simply think they are the better team in this matchup. Marcus Domask and Lance Jones are easily the best players in this game. They also have a coaching advantage in Bryan Mullins. The Salukis get to 1-0 to start their season in The Valley.

Score Prediction: Southern Illinois 64 – Evansville 59

Michigan State -4 : I am still not buying the Cardinals. It does not appear that Vegas is either. I was surprised to see this spread at 4 points after the showing from Louisville in the Bahamas. However, this will prove to be the right play. This is the first true road game for Louisville, and the Breslin Center is always rocking. Michigan State has the bodies to compete in the post & on the glass with Louisville. That is where they buttered their bread in the Bahamas. Sparty comfortably.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 74 – Louisville 64

Maryland PK : Something is broken with Storm Murphy. I am not sure what it is. This is not the PG that we saw at Wofford. The weird part is, he is reunited with Mike Young. He is the coach that developed him at Wofford. He is averaging more turnovers than assists, and is scoring 8.4 ppg. That will not be enough to get it done tonight against a rocking crowd at the Xfinity Center. The Terps will be honoring Len Bias tonight, and it has been pumped on social media basically since the season started. There will be a lot of energy in that building tonight, and I just don’ think the Hokies have the guard play right now to come in and win a road game in a hostile environment.

Score Prediction: Maryland 68 – Virginia Tech 65

Washington State -2 : Fading the Sun Devils without Marcus Bagley again. They are just a different team with/without. Also, it appears that Noah Williams will be back tonight for the Cougars. Williams, Flowers and Roberts are a lethal group of guards that you probably have not heard of yet. Enjoy watching them in this one tonight. Arizona State really struggles to defend the guard position. Wazzou from the jump.

Score Prediction: Washington State 74 – Arizona State 66

Florida PK : This one will be closer than people think, and that is why the line sits at PK. My gambling brain wants me to take OU, but i just simply cannot see them pulling this one out. This game is going to be won in the post, and UF has a significant advantage on the glass. Florida is 24th in the country in offensive rebounding, while Oklahoma comes in at 324th. If UF converts their second chances, we will be good here.

Score Prediction: Florida 70 – Oklahoma 66

Texas Tech -2 : The Red Raiders come into this game as one of the most efficient teams in the country. They are 3rd in offensive efficiency, and 9th in defensive efficiency. I am riding pure analytics on this play. Providence is a scrappy team, and always has a nice home court advantage .. but I’m rolling with the Red Raiders in a close one.

Score Prediction: Texas Tech 71 – Providence 67

UNC +3 : These two teams are built from the inside out. They always have been. It will be an absolute war on the glass tonight. However, Michigan has one glaring weakness that has come back to bite them many times this year. They are shooting 29% as a team from distance. On the other end, the Tar Heels have improved to 41% this season from the 3 point line. With better shooting and a rocking Dean Dome, I will have to side with the Tar Heels in this one.

Score Prediction: UNC 76 – Michigan 75

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

11/30 Starting Five Write-Up

(photo: Inside The Hall)

Season Record: 56-58-1

11/30 Starting Five:

Minnesota -2

Indiana -3

Rutgers -2

Saint Louis +3.5

Ohio State +3.5

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Minnesota -2 : As you know from my write-ups earlier in the season, I really love the transfer pieces that Ben Johnson brought in. Jamison Battle has instantly become one of the players to watch in the Big 10. He can create his own shot, and is a great lengthy defender. That is where my brain is heading to for this matchup. Defense. Minnesota comes into this game rated 13th in defensive efficiency in the country, while only allowing 59.6 ppg. This attack is led by Peyton Willis and EJ Stephens who are both averaging 2+ steals per game. Pitt is on the complete other end of this spectrum. 255th in defensive efficiency, and just let UMBC hang 87 on them. One team will be able to get stops, and the other won’t. Gophers comfortably.

Score Prediction: Minnesota 72 – Pitt 62

Indiana -3 : I really, really love this play. I am super high on the Hoosiers this season. Trayce Jackson-Davis is an absolute weapon. 43 points against a strong Thundering Herd team the last time out. He is the exact piece that a team needs to unlock a 2-3 zone. Look for him to be aggressive from the middle of the zone driving to the rim. This will cause the wings to collapse down for open threes for his teammates as well. Not to mention, the 2-3 zone from Cuse has been horrendous this season. Allowing 77.2 ppg. They are really lacking the athleticism/length of a normal Syracuse team. Cuse can shoot with anyone, but Indiana will be too physical for them tonight.

Score Prediction: Indiana 75 – Syracuse 68

Rutgers -2 : No analytics will help me with this pick. All statistics point to Clemson. This is pure instinct. It is too early in the season to say this .. but this truly feels like a do or die scenario for the Rutgers season. A win is desperately needed coming off three straight losses to UMass, Lafayette, Depaul. Clemson, a likely tournament team, is coming into town tonight giving the Scarlett Knights a chance to clean up their resume. Arguably, it could not come at a better time. This is a “Get Up Off of the Mat” game for Rutgers. The RAC (refuse to call it Jersey Mike’s Arena – that may actually be the problem with this team) will be jumping – Ron Harper Jr. will go for 20+ -and Rutgers squeaks out a close one.

Score Prediction: Rutgers 65 – Clemson 60

Saint Louis +3.5 : Saint Louis is a very well balanced team. They come into this game 48th in offensive efficiency, and 49th in defensive. While Boise State comes in at 34 defensively, they are all the way back at 238th on the offensive side of the ball. This team just absolutely cannot shoot. The Broncos are 39.4% from the field, 59.3% from the stripe, and 27.7% from distance. Putrid. You will not get away with that against a hyper-efficient Billikens squad. I think Saint Louis is the better team. No real home court advantage here for me. Will gladly take the 3.5 points. Sprinkling the ML as well.

Score Prediction: Saint Louis 71 – Boise State 64

Ohio State +3.5 : I need Value City Arena to be jumping tonight. That is the only way we get home with this one. That also needs to be fueled by a hot start. This is Dook’s first true road game of the season. EJ Liddell provides a bit of a matchup problem for the Blue Devils, and Holtmann needs to get him going early to get the crowd behind the Buckeyes. While Ohio State lost on a long range buzzer beater for the Fort Myers Tip-Off championship game, I believe they had a lot of growth at the guard position in that tournament. It was a very beneficial trip down south for Wheeler, Johnson and Sotos. When I handicap these two sides, they are probably 7.5 points apart on a neutral court. The general public probably thinks it is even more of a disparity after seeing Dook beat Gonzaga over the weekend. That is why I believe Vegas is trying to get an exponentially large handle on the Dookies. We will be with the house on this one. Vegas can feel a hostile crowd lifting Ohio State tonight. I do too. We need Ahrens firing from three, and Young being a bulldog on the glass… and we also need that home court advantage. Be loud Buckeye fans!

Score Prediction: Dook 74 – Ohio State 73

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

11/29 Starting Five Write-Up

(photo: Hawk Central)

Season Record: 53-56-1

11/29 Starting Five:

Norfolk State -4.5

Iowa ML -120

Canisius -2.5

Oregon -13

UC Riverside +10

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Norfolk State -4.5 : Norfolk State is the best team at Chris Paul’s HBCU Challenge down in Phoenix, and it is really not close IMO. We were on the Spartans yesterday, and will ride them to another victory today. Grambling has a major turnover problem – 19.2 per game. Joe Bryant Jr. was excellent yesterday in transition. Also, was 12-12 from the stripe when fouled. Grambling won by a wide margin yesterday against Morgan State, but lost the turnover and offensive rebounding battle. That will hurt them today. Love this play.

Score Prediction: Norfolk State 76 – Grambling 66

Iowa ML -120 : Obviously, loved this play a lot more last night. I do not love the crazy line movement against us today. However, I still think Iowa is still the more talented team. Also, there is more cohesion from the Hawkeyes earlier in this season. The Cavaliers are still molding into who they will become after taking in transfers that are playing big minutes early in the season. Iowa has played absolutely nobody, but we cannot deny the elite level of offensive play we have seen from them. UVA’s defense is always a problem, but Jordan Bohannon and Connor McCaffery are excellent ball handlers/passers. They will be able to get other Hawkeyes open looks in this one. Also, I sung the praises of Keegan Murray all last season .. and look at him now. 1st-Team Big 10 selections are in his future. Winning on CLV hasn’t been a proven way of success for us this season, so maybe we make it out of this one alive….

Score Prediction: Iowa 65 – UVA 62

Canisius -2.5 : When a 2-4 ballclub is a 2.5 favorite over a 5-1 team that is 5-0 ATS, you just need to trust your gambling instincts and bet what makes you feel uncomfortable. There is no X’s and O’s opinion for this one.

Score Prediction: Canisius 80 – Cornell 74

Oregon -13 : Boy, are the Ducks happy to be back in Eugene. One of the worst weeks in recent memory for Dana Altman’s group. Unfortunately for the Grizz, I think they are going to pay for that tonight. Montana really struggled on the road in Starkville against a Mississippi State team that I find to be very similar to the Ducks this season. I think we see more of the same tonight. It is a bad matchup for Montana, and Oregon surely has a fire lit under their ass. Josh Bannan is going to find life very difficult against Dante, Williams, & Kepnang .. just as he did with Garrison Brooks and the Bulldogs. Oregon big.

Score Prediction: Oregon 77 – Montana 58

UC Riverside +10 : Simply too many points. UC Riverside is just as slow, and just as excellent on the defensive end as the Gaels. This game will be decided in the mid 50s-low 60s. Also, this is a tricky spot for Saint Mary’s. They are coming back home after a gauntlet of Power 5 teams in a major Feast Week tournament, to play against UC Riverside after being off for 5 days. If UC Riverside controls the glass, we could be on upset alert here..

Score Prediction: Saint Mary’s 62 – UC Riverside 56

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

11/23 Feast Week Card Write-Up

(photo: CBS Sports)

Season Record: 31-35-2

11/23 Feast Week:

Southern Utah pick’em

Akron/App State o128

Butler +2

South Carolina -4

George Mason +4

Lipscomb -2

Arkansas -5

Gonzaga -6

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Southern Utah Pick’Em : Missed the best number here, but too much sharp money flying in to pass up. SUU’s athleticism could be a huge problem for Yale here. We will need a perfectly managed game Todd Simon. Following the big brains..

Score Prediction: SUU 71 – Yale 68

Akron/App State o128 : I don’t really love what I’ve seen from either team this season defensively. I am throwing the offensive performance yesterday from the Zips out the window. They are better than that. Bryan Trimble will get it going today. We are getting a discounted total because of it though. Also, Delph had a career high 39 points yesterday for the Mountaineers. We can get over this number… right?

Score Prediction: Akron 69 – App State 67

Butler +2 : Yesterday’s defeat to Wisconsin will prove tough to bounce back from for the Aggies. After their opening flurry of threes, this team really struggled to score the ball. They were also getting lost on ball screens at the top of the key. Butler has the weapons from deep to make them pay just as Wisconsin did. I also love the inside presence of Tyler Groce and Bryce Golden today. Golden needs to stay out of foul trouble. This will be an ugly one.

Score Prediction: Butler 65 – Texas A&M 60

South Carolina -4 : The Gamecocks have been a pleasant surprise this season. A statement win over a very good UAB team the other night. Devin Carter has been a freshman standout at the guard position, and Wildens Leveque is finally turning into the player that Frank Martin has promised he would be. The Gamecocks also get a shot in the arm tonight with the debut of AJ Wilson. The 6’7 George Mason transfer will be able to help this team in the variety of ways. We know Wofford can shoot the three, so James Reece will need to stay hot from behind the arc and also have help from Stevenson, Couisnard, etc. The Gamecocks size and athleticism will be a little too much for the Terriers tonight.

Score Prediction: South Carolina 73 – Wofford 66

George Mason +4 : Fading the disaster that is Nevada. I gave them one more chance last night, and they got ran out of the gym. To compound that, we woke up to the news this morning that they have kicked AJ Bramah off of the team. Arguably the most talented player. Nevada only has 4 competitive players at this point. If Baker or Washington get in foul trouble early, this could be another blowout.

Score Prediction: George Mason 74 – Nevada 69

Lipscomb -2 : Line is too low for me. Lipscomb has too many quality players that will prove to be a nightmare for a below average Tennessee Tech defense. Siding with Ahsan Assadullah is never a bad thing. This will also be a monster night for KJ Johnson. Calling it now..

Score Prediction: Lipscomb 71 – Tennessee Tech 65

Arkansas -5 : Absolutely love Wes Miller and what he has done with this Bearcats team to start this year. However, this is a terrible matchup for Cincinnati. The guard play, place, and three point shooting will be too much for the Bearcats to keep pace with in this one. I would like to see Mus Bus get Stanley Umude going more. Hopefully, that happens tonight. It will be tough for Cincinnati to get right back up for another big ranked matchup after knocking off Illinois last night as well. Arkansas pulls away the end to win by double digits.

Score Prediction: Arkansas 74 – Cincinnati 64

Gonzaga -6 : The Timme & Holmgren Tour will rock on again tonight in Las Vegas. This post-play will be too much for an undersized UCLA playing without Cody Riley and Mac Etienne. If Myles Johnson gets in foul trouble early (I think he does), then the domino affect will prove too costly for the Bruins. Gonzaga struts their stuff tonight – per usual.

Score Prediction: Gonzaga 85 – UCLA 73

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

11/22 Feast Week Write-Up

(photo: Notre Dame Rivals)

Season Record: 29-29-2

11/22 Feast Week:

A&M / Wisconsin o120.5

Akron tto 72

Murray State -5

Ohio State +3

CofC +16

Notre Dame pick’em

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A&M / Wisconsin o120.5 : The pace of play will make this one a sweat, but this number came down too far to not play. I had this game at 123 and was considering, so I will definitely take 120.5. While both of these teams play agonizingly slow, they both know how to get to the line. And …. they make their free throws. Wisconsin comes in shooting 80% from the stripe, and A&M shoots 75%. This should be close through the entirety of the game, so we could have some late fouling help us if we are in trouble.

Score Prediction: Wisconsin 64 – Texas A&M 62

Akron tt0 72 : I do not see a world in which the Zips won’t be able to do whatever they want offensively in this game. Thought about the spread, but think the majority of the value is in the tto. Fordham is dreadful defensively, and Akron brings back everyone from last season outside of Christian-Jackson. They also have added Ball State transfer, KJ Walton. Walton was the leading scorer for the Cardinals last season. He is a combo guard that can get it done from all levels. Akron touches 75+ here.

Score Prediction: Akron 78 – Fordham 64

Murray State -5 : I really, really love the Racers this season. They will have too much offense for the Buccaneers tonight. Murray State comes in 35th in offensive efficiency, and ETSU is 249th while shooting 36% from the field. Keep your eye on Trae Hannibal this season. The South Carolina transfer is leading the Racers in rebounding as a 6’2 guard. On a team that features KJ Williams. That is quite impressive. He has fit right in with the attitude of this scrappy bunch. Racers by double digits.

Score Prediction: Murray State 74 – ETSU 64

Ohio State +3 : As you know, I am not high on the Buckeyes this season. Have already been on the opposite side of them this season. However, this is a gross overreaction of a line. I had this as a Pick’Em on a neutral site, so I will take the three points. E.J. Liddell is still a top contender for the Naismith, and I trust that the guard play will improve a tad. Seton Hall overvalued after being an overrated Michigan group. Maybe sprinkle the ML here.

Score Prediction: Ohio State 70 – Seton Hall 68

CofC +16 : The Cougars have really impressed me this season. This start is not surprising, however. Pat Kelsey is the best coach in America that does not receive national praise. He built a powerhouse mid-major program at Winthrop, and looks like he is already on his way to doing that in Charleston. This team can fill it up from three, and they can rebound. As you know, I love that in an underdog. UNC is always a king on the glass, and the Cougars beat them out 12 to 7 on the offensive glass the other night. Look for Meeks to have a better game, and the Cougars to sneak under this number.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 82 – CofC 69

Notre Dame Pick’Em : Favorite play on the card. Paul Atkinson is an absolute weapon. The Irish were very fortunate to grab him off of the portal. Atkinson paired with Laszewski will prove to be a major problem for the Gaels downlow. As always, I love the energy that Prentiss Hubb brings in the backcourt. Look for him to finally get it going. He is a big game player.

Score Prediction: Notre Dame 70 – Saint Mary’s 65

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

11/19 Starting Five Write-Up

(photo: FIU Sports)

Season Record: 23-22-1

11/19 Starting Five:

NMSU -3

Clem / Bonnies o123

IPFW +12

Ohio +12

FIU -3

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NMSU -3 : Hoping you saw this pick when I put it out. I missed the golden number of -2, but it has ran all the way to -5.5. As I mentioned in my tweet, I would only play to -4. -5 is right were I would have this capped. New Mexico State was very impressive in their tournament opening win over Davidson. This team always competes on the defensive end and has high energy on both sides of the court, but yesterday they were also shooting the ball exceptionally well. If this team stays hot from distance, they are going to be a serious problem. Utah State will really struggle with their physicality and energy, and the Aggies will march on to the title game.

Score Prediction: New Mexico 70 – Utah State 64

Clem / Bonnies o123 : This number sits here due to two elite defenses. However, I think that both offenses bring challenging weapons to exploit these defenses just enough to get us over this edge. As you saw yesterday, the Bonnies struggle to defend the three point line at times. Boise State was able to hang around in that game due to their shooting. Clemson was 11-21 from distance yesterday against Temple, and are shooting 48% on the season. On the other end, Clemson is really challenged with size in their backcourt. The Bonnies backcourt is taller than most, and really love to play strong and physical through the lane and in the post. I think both teams can figure out a way to score points today. Also, both teams will have a nice sized crowd down in Charleston. Hopefully, feeding off of momentum will get more shots to drop. This one should be entertaining!

Score Prediction: Bonnies 65 – Clemson 64

IPFW +12 : This number opened too high at +12. Glad we got it where we did. Down to +10.5 now. Fort Wayne has the pieces to battle in this game. Pipkins and Godfrey are two senior guards that know how to score timely buckets, or get to the line, when a game looks like it could get blown open. I love having high basketball IQ guards when taking a big underdog. As you know, I have been high on Minnesota this season so this may come as a shock. However, the Mastadons are the play here. 53% from the field. 76% from the stripe. 49% from distance. Give me that and + double digit points all day.

Score Prediction: Minnesota 74 – IPFW 66

Ohio +12 : I am very high on UK this year, and I am a little scared to take this one .. but it fits my numbers. I had this at UK -9.5. The key for Ohio will be to get Big Oscar into foul trouble as quickly as possible. The entire makeup of the Wildcats changes with him on the bench. Carter and Vander Plas are seasoned veterans that could get this done with their post-moves and pump fakes around the rim. Oscar loves to block shots, so he is always susceptible to fouls. I also love the way Mark Sears has taken over the reigns from Jason Preston this season. He looks like he will be a star in the MAC for years to come. My least favorite of the five, but think we get a close cover here with a seasoned & feisty Bobcat group.

Score Prediction: UK 77 – Ohio 68

FIU -3 : Looks like we will get some CLV here as well. I see the line now at -4.5 at the time of writing this. Play of the day for me. I do not see a world in which Green Bay can run & score with FIU. FIU always baits teams into getting up and down with them, as you saw last night in their game against Ball State. They are athletic at the rim and can fire from range. Green Bay is shooting 27% from distance, and are replacing the majority of their scoring from last season. Easy victory for the Panthers.

Score Prediction: FIU 73 – Green Bay 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!