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3/3 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: David Eaton – Murray State Athletics)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 197-159

Season Best Bet Record: 66-40

3/3 Card:

UNI +10 (1pm winner!!!)

Gardner Webb -4.5 (in progress)

Belmont +3 (in progress)

Murray State +11

Colorado State +2

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Murray State +11 : Best Bet of the night! The Racers are coming into this Quarterfinal matchup with Drake playing great basketball. They have won 4 out of their last 5 games, including a 28 point victory in their opening round game of Arch Madness. They were only a 1 point favorite in that game over Valpo, so the margin of victory is ultra impressive. They were dominant on both sides of the ball. The Racers forced 19 turnovers and held Valpo to 32.7% shooting on the defensive end, and made 10 threes in route to scoring 78 points on the offensive end. They also only turned the ball over 6 times. A big time performance in an opening round matchup of a tournament can propel a team to play above their means against an opponent who is playing their first game. I believe that we will see that tonight. There is no getting around the two blowouts that the Racers suffered to the Bulldogs this season, but Vegas only had Drake as a 3 point favorite in the matchup a few weeks back in Murray. The jump to 11 for a neutral site conference tournament game seems very extreme. Quincy Anderson is the X-Factor in this game. He has become a big time part of the Racers rotation in the last 5 games. He has scored in double figures in all five. Murray State will need his hot three point shooting to remain at arms length in this one for us. I am trusting him to do so after 14 made threes in those 5 games. I am not saying Murray State will win this game, but I do believe that they will be competitive enough to easily cover the 11 in a win or go home scenario. Murray State has big time performances in them. They have beaten Texas A&M, Bradley, Belmont, and several other very good teams this season. We will get an A+ effort tonight.

Score Prediction: Drake 73 – Murray State 67

Colorado State +2 : There is not much to gain for New Mexico in this game tonight. Their at-large tournament hopes are gone after suffering a 9th Mountain West loss. The last unbeaten team in the country will not make the tournament unless they win the Mountain West championship next week. The Lobos’ sights are probably already set to the conference tournament, so this is a great spot for Colorado State to sneak up on them. Hence why we see such a short spread. It is also Senior Night for the Rams. A big bulk of their impact players will be celebrated tonight. CSU has a great home court advantage with a loud student section. It should be rocking tonight to send those guys out on a positive note. The Rams have been dangerous when healthy this season, and they have taken SDSU and Boise State to the brink on this court. I think Nico Medved gets a great performance out of his seniors, and the Rams walk away with a victory.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 78 – New Mexico 76

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

3/2 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Kenosha News)

Season Record: 195-156

Season Best Bet Record: 66-39

3/2 Card:

UNI -4 (1pm winner!!!)

American +6.5

Middle Tennessee State +7.5

Purdue -4

Arizona/USC u155.5

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American +6.5 : This should be a very close game from start to finish. Navy was a -4.5 favorite at home to American earlier this season and suffered an outright loss. The Midshipmen did exact revenge by a double digit victory on American’s homecourt, but the free throw splits were not the norm for either team. Navy is almost dead last in the country in percentage of points from the free throw line. They are 355th out of 363. They were 21-26 from the line in that victory of American. That is not a repeatable factor tonight. Also, American was 10-19 from the line in that game. They are above 70% for the year, so that was certainly against their norm as well. I think the first matchup is more indicative of what we see tonight. I see a one possession game either way. Especially, in a conference tournament setting with two teams who play low tempo basketball.

Score Prediction: Navy 65 – American 62

MTSU +7.5 : Another spread that is too high for a low possession game. North Texas was favored in the first matchup in Murfreesboro by 3, and walked away with a 56-51 victory. North Texas relies on it’s defense and forcing turnovers, but the Blue Raiders were able to turnover the Mean Green just as much in the first meeting. The Blue Raiders are a bad matchup for UNT in my opinion. They are lengthy and athletic, and have a similar gameplan for success as North Texas does. MTSU just normally likes to do it at a quicker pace. However, North Texas was able to grind this first game to a halt and I am trusting their ability to do so at home today. The Blue Raiders will hang around long enough to cover this number. This play is supported by Shot Quality. Here is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: North Texas 61 – MTSU 56

Purdue -4 : This is my Best Bet of the night! There has not been much movement off of this line due to the KenPom predicted score of Purdue 65 – Wisconsin 61. However, I have full confidence that Purdue will win this game by more than 4 points. Purdue has stumbled as of late and their loss column has reached 5. What do the four teams that have created these problems for Purdue have in common? Athletic backcourts. The Badgers could be without Chucky Hepburn tonight, and Connor Essegian and Max Klesmit are not going to be able to athletically impose their will on Loyer and Smith. That has really been the only kryptonite for the Boilermakers. This is also an insanely juicy matchup for Zach Edey. He scored 41 points in 43 minutes last year against the Badgers. Crowl and Wahl will have no answer for him. I think the Badgers will also struggle to score tonight. They will not be able to penetrate and get their tough post baskets against this Purdue interior defense. The Hepburn injury is massive. Whether he sits or plays through the injury, it is going to expose the very poor Badger bench. Purdue is in a different class than Wisconsin. They prove it easily tonight.

Score Prediction: Purdue 70 – Wisconsin 60

Arizona/USC u155.5 : The Trojans will try to slow this game down at home. They are 155th in the country in tempo, and they know that is their path to success tonight. They allowed Arizona to get out and run a bit in the first meeting in Tuscon, and suffered a 15 point loss. The Wildcats also hit 12 triples in that game, and I do not see that being repeatable tonight. The Trojan defense has been finely tuned as we head into March. They have only allowed one team to exceed 65 points in their last six Pac-12 games. Love the under here, and expect this to be a very close game. This play is supported by Shot Quality. Here is an example of their Value Finder:

Score Prediction: Arizona 75 – USC 74

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/28 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Tony Walsh/UGAAA)

Season Record: 191-152

Season Best Bet Record: 66-37

2/28 Card:

Clemson/UVA o129.5

BC/Wake Forest o145

Georgia +2

TTU/Kansas u147.5

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Clemson/UVA o129.5 : This was close to a Best Bet. It will get the same unit size from my as my Best Bet tonight. Clemson games have been fireballs of late. In 5 of their last 6 games, both Clemson and their opponent have eclipsed the 70 point mark. The outlier was a 94-54 Clemson win over FSU. It is important to have a hot offense when traveling to Charlottesville. Making shots is the only way to pull UVA out of their pace/gameplan. This is purely anecdotal, but from watching UVA games this season they also appear to speed up when their shots are dropping. It is like the added confidence puts a pep in their step. They should have the ability to score efficiently on Clemson tonight. The Tigers are 135th in road defensive efficiency and that is dropping quickly. This is a nice bounce back spot for the Hoos. The spread is out of touch from where I would be comfortable laying the points, but I think we safely go over here and the Cavs walk away with a victory.

Score Prediction: UVA 70 – Clemson 65

BC/Wake Forest o145 : Wake Forest will easily surpass 75 points tonight. Boston College is 276th in the country in road defensive efficiency. Wake Forest is 42nd in the country in offensive efficiency, and average 79.8 ppg at the Joel. Wake Forest scored 85 points in first matchup of this series, and did not score for the final 2:15 minutes of the game. Possessions were high, and Wake Forest was able to get whatever they wanted. The total closed at 138.5 before that game. There was an obvious misstep by Vegas on this total and that is why we see such a big change to today’s game. Wake Forest’s spread and tto are worth looks as well.

Score Prediction: Wake Forest 80 – Boston College 69

Georgia +2 : This is my Best Bet of the night! Let’s make it FIVE in a row. Mike White has been itching to get revenge on Florida since the thumbnail picture of this article was taken. He thinks he was given a quick hook by the UF administration, and this is a great spot for him to exact his revenge. Florida is just not the same team without Colin Castleton. They are 0-3 since Castleton was ruled out for the season for a broken hand. Including, an 88-72 loss at Vanderbilt over the weekend. Georgia has had a mediocre season, but they have definitely been above average at home. They have a 5-3 SEC Home record with wins over Auburn, Mississippi State, & UK. Mike White had a phenomenal game plan against his former employer the first game of this series. The Dawgs built out a 13 point lead in the 1H of that game. Florida’s homecourt advantage eventually carried them to a 82-75 win in that game, but there were some solid take aways for UGA. The Dawgs outrebounded UF on the offensive glass 15-8, and that was a Florida team WITH Castleton. Georgia also got to the line 18 times and made 10 triples. The wrong team is favored tonight. White’s players will be amped up to get this win for him. I believe they have the means to do so.

Score Prediction: Georgia 75 – Florida 71

TTU/KU u147.5 : The total ended on 147 in the first matchup of this series this season. However, there is a glaring statistic pointing to us going under tonight. KU is 198th and TTU are 203rd in the country in made threes per game. However, both teams made double digit triples in the first meeting. I expect that we see both teams below 10 made threes tonight. Also, the defenses of these teams have been better of late, and Texas Tech would prefer if this were a slower paced game. Fardaws Aimaq also throws a wrench in this matchup. He did not play in the first meeting. Tech will want to spend time making sure he gets post touches, and he will improve the Red Raiders interior defense and rebounding. I think his addition to this game is great for going below the total of the first meeting. The under is my play here. This is also heavily Shot Quality approved. Below is their final score through their predictive model:

Score Prediction: Kansas 76 – Texas Tech 67

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/27 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Ben Queen – USA Today Sports)

Season Record: 189-151

Season Best Bet Record: 65-37

2/27 Card:

FGCU +3

Northern Colorado -5

WVU/ISU o134

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FGCU +3 : The wrong team is favored here. I lean more to the KenPom number of FGCU -1. It has been wrongly reported (even on the ASUN website earlier) that Queens is hosting this game tonight. It is in fact on a neutral court in Kennesaw, GA. It is also worth noting that an NCAA bid is not obtainable for Queens this season. They are still in their D1 transformation period in regards to postseason play. It is a stupid ass rule, but worth noting when capping these conference tournament games. Dunk City had a non-conference slate that led us to believe they could make some noise in the ASUN. They beat a likely tournament team in Southern Cal, and also are one of the few teams to win on St. Bonaventure’s court this season. They certainly disappointed in conference play, but they have the big performance capabilities in there somewhere. We may have saw a preamble performance to a big time conference tournament run last time out for the Eagles. They scored 62 points in the 1H against Austin Peay in their final regular season game of the season. The Eagles PG, Isaiah Thompson, has many years of NCAA Tournament experience at Purdue. I trust him leading the show for us tonight. Dunk City in a close one.

Score Prediction: FGCU 76 – Queens 74

Northern Colorado -5 : I think the Bears even up the season series with Idaho State tonight. UNC is a different animal at home. They have really struggled this season, but they are 4-1 in their last 5 in Greeley, CO. It is a tough place to travel and play. They have one of the better student sections in the Big Sky. Idaho State is 235th in the country in defensive efficiency and will have all kinds of trouble guarding Knecht and Kountz tonight. Northern Colorado will score at will and I think that Idaho State will have a hard time keeping up. The Bengals are only averaging 64.6 ppg in their last five, and that recent output just won’t cut it tonight. Also, this would be considered an ultimate let down spot. Idaho State gave Eastern Washington their first conference loss of the season over the weekend at home. Traveling to Greeley, CO after that is a tricky spot. I think the market has this one right. The Bears get a comfortable win at home. This bet is heavily Shot Quality approved. Below is a snapshot of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: Northern Colorado 77 – Idaho State 69

WVU/ISU o134 : This is my Best Bet of the night! Let’s make it four in a row. The possessions per game rankings are not where I would normally like to play an over in the mid 130s range, but I believe this number is set here for a reason. These teams cannot play defense without fouling. West Virginia is 299th in the country at fouls per possession at 26.6%, and Iowa State is 338th at 27.9%. These fouls are costly fouls. The Cyclones are 331st in the country in opponent points from free throws, and the Mountaineers are 339th. These trends were heavily impactful on the first meeting of this series this year. There were a total of 57 free throws shot in that game. Both teams also reached 50 field goal attempts. WVU’s Big 12 games are 14-2 in going over 134 points on the season. Including, the first matchup with the Cyclones. Their sporadic spirts can get a game sped up, and the fouls will certainly be there from both sides. Lastly, the Mountaineers defense really struggles on the road. They are 163rd in road defensive efficiency. Both teams are desperate for a W, and it should be a close one with a lot of freebies at the line. I love the over.

Score Prediction: Iowa State 72 – WVU 69

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/24 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: The Denver Gazette)

Season Record: 180-148

Season Best Bet Record: 62-37

2/24 Card:

Colorado State -7

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Colorado State -7 : The Best Bets have been on a cold streak since Saturday. We have fallen to 62-37 on the season. 63% is still elite, but we want to get things turned around in the right direction immediately. I know you guys are putting your hard earned money behind the Best Bets, so I am not putting them out here lightly. With that said, I believe the Rams are poised for a big win in Fort Collins tonight. Wyoming won the first matchup of this season in Laramie by a score of 58-57. However, this will not be the same Wyoming team in action tonight. They will be missing 30 of their 58 points in that game. Reynolds is out due to injury, and Anderson has left the program. We played the under in the last Wyoming game due to the injuries and departures from the program, and easily cashed. Their offense just simply cannot compete in the Mountain West in its current state. Meanwhile, Colorado State has continued to be an efficient offense throughout their struggles. Especially, in Fort Collins. They are 59th in the country in home offensive efficiency. On the season, the Rams have a 16.9/11.0 assist/turnover ratio, and are shooting 49.1% from the field. They are also shooting 36.2% from distance. That is important because the Cowboys are due for defensive regression across the board on shooting splits. A quality shooting team such as Colorado State should be able to take advantage. Below is a snapshot from the Shot Quality website. Colorado State will simply outscore a diluted Wyoming attack tonight per my numbers. I am laying the 7 with confidence.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 75 – Wyoming 62

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/23 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Madeline Bell)

Season Record: 178-147

Season Best Bet Record: 62-36

2/23 Card:

Wichita State +2

Delaware/NC A&T u149.5

Western Kentucky -4.5

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Wichita State +2 : This is my Best Bet. Let’s get another streak rolling after the bounce back W last night! Memphis could be without Kendric Davis again tonight. The Tigers’ star is still dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to miss the Houston game over the weekend. He has been seen in a walking boot every day over the past week. Some Memphis blogs seem hopeful that he will at least give it a go tonight, but I am locking in this line now under the assumption that he will not play. Regardless, Kendric Davis playing through an injury is still a feather in the cap of Wichita State. The Shockers really have improved on their play after they gave Houston a run for their money at The Roundhouse. Since that almost upset, the Shockers have won 3 of 4. This includes a win on the road at Temple. The Shockers have had a full week off since that victory. That has given them a ton of time to implement a gameplan for this Memphis game, and more importantly gave their legs a rest. A huge edge this late in the season. This is important because Memphis is 4-6-1 ATS when they are at a rest disadvantage. The Tigers are also only 5-8-1 ATS in conference play. This is a great spot for an upset behind a lively crowd at The Roundhouse, and I am trusting the Shockers to get it done.

Score Prediction: Wichita State 76 – Memphis 72

Delaware/NC A&T u149.5 : Bad number here, but I thought we were jumping in at the peak of the rise. This opened at 146. I even thought the opener was a tad high. I am assuming the push in the market is from recent final scores of these teams, but the pace in this game just is not conducive for a number this high. Delaware is ranked 225th in the country in possessions per game. NC A&T plays faster than Delaware, but they are only ranked 112th. This game is being played in Greensboro, and the under is 5-3 in CAA home games for the Aggies. These teams are just horrific from an offensive efficiency standpoint as well. The Blue Hens are ranked 188th, and the Aggies are ranked 302nd. There would need to be an outstanding outlier of pace and offensive efficiency for this game to go over, so I am trusting the data. The Shot Quality model also approves this under. Here is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: Delaware 74 – NC A&T 70

Western Kentucky -4.5 : The Hilltoppers are returning back to Diddle Arena, so this is the perfect time to step back in on them. La Tech is on a 4 game losing streak and fading quickly. WKU is in a great spot to even up this season series at home. The Toppers dropped two road games after that home winning streak that we took a ride on, but losing to Charlotte (in OT) and Rice is nothing to be ashamed of. Returning home should get this team turned back in the right direction. Dontaie Allen continues to be a sparkplug for this team. Having him in a focal scoring role has proven fruitful for the Hilltoppers. Also, Jamarion Sharp continues to be the most impactful defensive presence in the country. He leads the nation in blocks and is averaging 5.4 per game over his last five. I am comfortable laying this number tonight.

Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 75 – La Tech 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/22 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Michael Allio – AP)

Season Record: 176-144

Season Best Bet Record: 61-36

2/22 Card:

Providence/UConn o141.5

Minnesota +15.5 & o129.5

Wake Forest +6

Iowa -1

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Providence/UConn o141.5 : There is evidence from the previous game for an over in this rematch. The pace was well above what we need to clear 141.5. UConn shot 19 free throws while also attempting 63 field goals, and Providence shot 35 free throws while also attempting 49 field goals. This game simply did not go over because of poor shooting nights from both teams. UConn shot 36.5% from the field, and Providence was literally a hair better at 36.7. Vegas had the number that night at 142, but the game only ended on 134. They are keeping the number virtually the same for the rematch today, and I am excited to watch this Top 20 matchup while cashing an over. It should be a fun one.

Score Prediction: UConn 77 – Providence 70

Minnesota +15.5 & o129.5 : The Best Bet tonight is the over in this matchup. I also love the Gophers getting 15.5 points as well. We very rarely have had a double up in a game this season, but I am feeling an edge on both sides here. Dawson Garcia’s return from injury has been exactly what Minnesota has been hoping for all season long in regards to his play. The Savage, MN native scored 23 in his first game back against Penn State, and then added 18 points last time out against Illinois. Both of these games finished as single digit contests. The Gophers were getting ran out of the gym in his absence, so he was instantly a difference maker. His presence is felt mostly on the offensive end. Minnesota scored 69 points in each of these last two games. Those were the first times the Gophers had scored that many points since January 12th. The attention that he is getting is opening up the offensive game of Jamison Battle as well. If you remember from last season, Battle quite literally carried this team to some Big 10 wins. He has the freedom to do that again now that he has a capable offensive threat on the court with him at the same time. Battle scored a season high 31 points in Monday’s loss to Illinois. Maryland absolutely embarrassed Minnesota without Garcia on February 4th. An 81-46 final. So, we have a nice revenge angle here as well. While I believe Maryland will still be able to pretty much score at will, I think the Gophers will be able to keep up enough with Garcia in the lineup to cover both of these numbers for us. This matchup is also heavily Shot Quality approved. Here is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: Maryland 74 – Minnesota 63

Wake Forest +6 : I would have this game near a PK on a neutral court. I cannot justify why this number is so high. Probably due to the ass kicking that NC State delivered to UNC at PNC Arena on Sunday. However, I believe there is too much recency bias baked into this line. It will be hard for the crowd and players to give max effort once again on a mid-week turnaround against a quality opponent. Also, Wake Forest has been damn good this season in the ACC. They have a 10-6 ATS record in conference. They are also 6-4 ATS as an away team this season. These two teams met in Winston-Salem about a month ago. Wake Forest led for the majority of the contest, and then NC State surprised them with a last minute 2 point victory. This will be another dog fight. I will gladly take the 6 points.

Score Prediction: NC State 77 – Wake Forest 75

Iowa -1 : I am not quitting on the Hawkeyes… yet. They disgraced us the other night with their performance in Chicago, but I believe they have another on-paper edge again tonight. Despite the home court advantage that the Kohl Center provides, Wisconsin is 0-2-1 ATS as a home underdog this season. Iowa has also been fantastic in bounce back performances. They are 6-3 ATS following a loss this year. Wisconsin defeated Iowa in OT way back on December 11th. However, that was before the Tyler Wahl injury problems. He just cannot seem to get back to form. That will cost Wisconsin tonight because I don’t think think Wisconsin can beat Iowa without another dominant performance from Wahl. Kris Murray is a matchup nightmare for Wisconsin, and the Iowa backcourt is supremely more athletic than the Badger’s. I think this is a bad matchup for Wisconsin due to the current makeup of the teams. Iowa evens the season series tonight.

Score Prediction: Iowa 72 – Wisconsin 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/21 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Virginia Tech Athletics)

Season Record: 174-142

Season Best Bet Record: 61-35

2/21 Card:

Virginia Tech -2

Tennessee +1.5

GT/Pitt o136

Tulsa +1.5

Utah St/Wyoming u146

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Virginia Tech -2 : This is my Best Bet. The Hokies are 4-1 straight up and ATS since the return of Hunter Cattoor at The Castle. This includes wins over Virginia, Duke, Syracuse and Pitt. The Hokies are probably a little too far out of the bubble to make the tournament outside of an ACC tournament title, but Mike Young will be relaying a different message to his players. There will be belief in that locker room that if they keep winning then they will have a chance at an at-large. I personally think this team is talented enough to be a tournament team. They just stumbled too much during the injury to Cattoor. However, he is back now and I think they are poised to upset #13 Miami. Cattoor has made three or more three pointers in 6 out of the 8 games in his return. Miami is susceptible to allowing a big night from distance as they only rank 191th in opponent made three pointers per game. The improved Hokies deep threat is stretching defenses and allowing Mutts more room to operate slashing to the rim. Mutts has scored in double figures in 7 out of the 8 games in Cattoor’s return. It cannot be understated just how much he means to this offense. Behind a big time home court advantage, I think this Hokie offense does enough to upset Miami. This bet is also Shot Quality approved. Here is a quick preview of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 78 – Miami 72

Tennessee +1.5 : The entire market is loading up on A&M tonight. I love the Aggies as well, but this spot has been baked through the roof by Vegas. They have baited the market into giving the books a Volunteer handle while getting points. This line has risen to even +2.5 at some places. As of now, I am seeing 81% of bets, and 78% of money on Texas A&M. This is per Vegas Insider. I am riding with Vegas. I don’t get the disrespect to the Volunteers in this matchup. I had this game predicted as a Tennessee 3 point victory, and I assumed we would have seen a -2.5 Tennessee line. I will take the points here. The Vols are still one of the better defensive teams in the country despite their recent skid. They are only allowing 59.3ppg in SEC play. They will always give themselves a chance to win with that defense. The Aggies have a 12-2 SEC record, but have yet to play Tennessee or Alabama. I am trusting Rick Barnes to get the best out of his team tonight. Vols get a big road win. This is a major edge per the SQ model. It has Tennessee as a 7 point favorite.

Score Prediction: Tennessee 66 – Texas A&M 63

GT/Pitt o136 : I do not understand the buy back on this total compared to the first matchup in January. That total closed on 144 and the game ended on 131, but Pitt shot 43% and GT shot 36% from the field. Also, Georgia Tech made zero free throws. Literally, zero. This game was on 72 points at the half, and both offenses just went ice cold in the 2H. The amount of possessions were there for an over in that game, and I think we will see an over tonight. We also have Georgia Tech playing their best offensive basketball of the season in our favor. They are 3-1 in their last four games while scoring 74 ppg. Pitt has also been scorching on offense in their last four while averaging 80.8 ppg. We will have the pace based on the last matchup and recent performances. I am trusting the hot offenses to take care of the rest. Give us points.

Score Prediction: Pitt 76 – Georgia Tech 65

Tulsa +1.5 : I cannot in good conscious give you a write-up on Tulsa. It would be half-hearted. This is purely a play based on years of doing this. A 5-21 (1-14 C-USA) team is less than a possession underdog at home. The Golden Hurricanes will find a way to win this game.

Score Prediction: Tulsa 71 – ECU 70

Utah St./Wyoming u146 : The Cowboys want this game to be a crawl. They are 311th in the country in possessions per game. It would be in their best interest to play even slower tonight. The PAC-12 trio leaving the program has this Cowboy team extremely thin. They cannot afford foul trouble or a high possession game. I firmly believe that they will do everything in their power to control the pace tonight. We are seeing a high total due to the amount of possessions in the first game, but as I said Wyoming had Agbonkpolo, Anderson and Kyman in that game. Things are much different in Laramie now. Wyoming has a better shot of controlling the pace at home as well. Trusting them to take the air out of the ball.

Score Prediction: Utah State 74 – Wyoming 67

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/20 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Tony Gutierrez – AP)

Season Record: 174-141

Season Best Bet Record: 61-34

2/20 Card:

TCU -1.5

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TCU -1.5 : Best Bet! The Hornies are taking down the Jayhawks tonight. The only piece of this matchup that scares me is the revenge factor. It is hard to beat a Bill Self coached team twice in a season. It very rarely happens. However, this is such a great spot for TCU. The Horn Frogs took a big step forward over the weekend with the return of their leader and best player, Mike Miles Jr. TCU blew out a quality Oklahoma State team by 25 points while reaching the century mark. TCU is 13-7 ATS with Miles in the lineup this year. Including, 5-1 in the last 6. However, TCU is only 1-6 ATS when he has missed. That has caused their analytical rating to be much lower than they actually are with Miles healthy. I see TCU as a Top 10 team when healthy, and so does Vegas. That is why we see the Horn Frogs as a favorite tonight. Kansas isn’t a road dog very often. It has only happened 4 times in the last two seasons. They are 1-3 ATS in those games. The books don’t rate Kansas highly on the road in the Big 12. Vegas took a bath recently by making Kansas -2.5 @ OU & -1.5 @ Oklahoma State in their last two road contests. There was a heavy public handle on the Jayhawks in both of those games. However, by making the #3 Kansas Jayhawks an underdog tonight.. they are not changing their stance. TCU is 9-4-1 ATS as a home favorite this season, and they will get a massive win behind a rowdy crowd in Fort Worth. Here is a bonus stat from Shot Quality: TCU’s Cut Frequency is 57. Since 2022 they are 13-5 ATS against teams ranked worse than 280 at defending this play-type. Kansas is ranked 286th. If you want access to more stats like this and the incredible models at Shot Quality, use promo code: “SNIPER” for 30% off of all packages.

Score Prediction: TCU 77 – Kansas 71

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/19 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Trevor Ruszkowski – USA Today)

Season Record: 174-139

Season Best Bet Record: 61-33

2/19 Card:

Belmont +7

Iowa -1.5

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Belmont +7 : The Bruins are having a fantastic late season charge. Casey Alexander is a phenomenal coach, so we knew this was certainly possible. The Bruins are now 12-5 in The Valley, and only one game back of first-place Drake & Bradley. They get a shot a Drake today, and I think we will see one of their best punches. Drake rolled Belmont in Nashville earlier this season. However, this was an anomaly type of shooting performance for Belmont. They were 1-16 from distance. That is certainly not their norm. The Bruins are 12th in the country at 9.8 threes made per game, and they are 3rd in the country in three point shooting percentage at 40%. Another reason why this was an anomaly is that Drake is horrific at defending the three point line. The Bulldogs are 273rd in the country in opponent percentage of points from threes. This is is a stat that I believe will swing heavily in Belmont’s favor today. Another key piece to this handicap is the superb play of late from a Bruin freshman. Cade Tyson (brother is Clemson’s Hunter Tyson) is really coming on strong for Belmont. He has scored in double figures in 9 straight, and is a matchup nightmare on the wing with his ability to shoot. I like Belmont to keep this one very close. I definitely could see them winning this game, but officially will have Drake winning by 3.

Score Prediction: Drake 75 – Belmont 72

Iowa -1.5 : Best Bet!!! I think this could be a wire-to-wire victory for the Hawkeyes. This is just a really poor matchup for Northwestern. I know they are playing well of late, and that Iowa has already beaten them this year, but the matchup is just not great for them. The Wildcats are even worse than Drake in defending the three point line. Northwestern is 340th in the country in opponent percentage of points from threes at 36.7%. Iowa took full advantage of this in the first matchup shooting 10-21 from distance, and I believe they will do the same today. Also, Northwestern just does not have the interior defense to compete with Rebraca and Murray. They combined for 36 points on 14-24 shooting in the first matchup. Lastly, Fran McCaffery has owned Chris Collins. 5-0 and 5-0 ATS in the last five in favor of the Fran. I like the Hawkeyes to win comfortably in Chicago today. This matchup is also heavily approved by the Shot Quality model. We virtually have the same predicted score. That is normally a great recipe for success.

Score Prediction: Iowa 77 – Northwestern 69

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!