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2/17 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Kylie Cooper)

I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!

Season Record: 167-135

Season Best Bet Record: 60-32

2/17 Card:

Penn +3

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Penn +3 : Best Bet! This is the only play of the day, but is very worthy of a Best Bet nod. Yale’s inability to stop Jordan Dingle will be a huge issue for them tonight on the road at The Palestra. Dingle has scored at least 27 points in 3 out of the last 4 matchups against the Bulldogs. This includes a 31 point outing in a win over Yale on the Quakers’ home court last season. I am putting a lot of emphasis on one player because Jordan Dingle is the 2nd leading scorer in the country. When he goes, the Quakers go. Dingle was a big reason why the Quakers were in the game in New Haven all of the way until the very end earlier this season. He had 27 points on 10-17 shooting in the 7 point loss. The Quakers have a great chance to even the season series tonight. The are on a five game win streak since that Yale loss, and a big reason for that is the improved play of two key role players. Max Martz has taken a big step forward scoring the basketball recently. He is averaging 13.4 points per game in that 5 game win streak. Nick Spinoso is coming on strong as well. He averaged 13ppg/5.5rpg/5apg in the last two Quaker wins against Cornell and Harvard. Two of Yale’s three conference losses have come on the road, and Penn has been great at The Palestra. Out of conference wins against Temple and Colgate, and a 3-1 record in the Ivy. It is also worth noting that Yale has not won at The Palestra since the 16/17 season despite having the better program for that entire time period. I had Penn winning this in a one possession game, so I will gladly take the points. This bet is Shot Quality approved. Their model predicts a very similar final score to what I have. See below for a preview of their Matchup Breakdown. For a 30% discount on all Shot Quality packages, use Promo Code: SNIPER

Score Prediction: Penn 73 – Yale 71

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/16 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Jeff Faraudo)

Season Record: 165-134

Season Best Bet Record: 59-32

2/16 Card:

Purdue/Maryland o132

Western Kentucky +4.5

Gonzaga -7.5

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Purdue/Maryland o132 : This total closed at 132 as well in the previous matchup between these two teams. That game ended on 113 points. However, this wasn’t a “true” 113. There were only 6 combined points scored in the last 4 minutes of this game, and both teams shot under 40% from the field. The two teams combined for 5/34 from distance. We are due for some positive shooting progression in this matchup. Also, I see this as another close game. So does Vegas. The likelihood that there are 6 combined points again in the last 4 minutes again is not high. Hopefully, a lot of late game fouling will be added to our arsenal for the over. Edey will get his, and the Maryland backcourt always plays better at home. I had a hard time not pulling the trigger on Purdue, but the line spooked me. Will just be on the over here.

Score Prediction: Purdue 70 – Maryland 67

Western Kentucky +4.5 : There is a VERY large difference in this C-USA rematch. 7 feet 5 inches large. Jamarion Sharp is healthy and is sure to impact this 2nd game vs Charlotte. He missed the first one, and the Hilltoppers lost 75-71. Sharp leads the nation in blocks, and has 17 blocks in his last three games. He is as big of a difference maker as there can be defensively. Literally. I think Charlotte will find it much more difficult to find easy buckets tonight. Also, our Hilltoppers are still scorching hot. We backed them last time out against MTSU, and they are riding a 3-game win streak into tonight. Dontaie Allen continues to be a difference maker in the starting lineup. This team is turning the corner at the right time. I think they are in this game until the very end, and I honestly have them winning by a point. I would not advise against throwing their ML in a parlay if you want to get frisky tonight.

Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 67 – Charlotte 66

Gonzaga -7.5 : Best Bet! Revenge is a dish best served cold. Gonzaga is going to be very mean to our LMU Lions tonight. Marymount snapped Gonzaga’s 75 game home winning streak at the Kennel a few weeks ago. However, there is a glaring stat that has convinced me that it was indeed a fluky performance. The Zags are 3rd in the country in points from 2 pointers. A lot of this is Timme, but the Gonzaga backcourt finds the majority of their success driving to the rim. LMU is 314th in the country in opponent percentage of points from 2’s. It is going to be a field day inside the arc for the pissed off Zags. Mark Few made some coaching mistakes in guarding Cam Shelton in the first matchup, but that won’t happen again. You are not going to burn Mark Few twice in a row with one player. There is also incentive here for Gonzaga to hang a large number on LMU. They are only one game back from SMC for the co-lead in the WCC. The tie-breaker for the WCC title goes to the NET rating. The Gaels are currently 6th in the NET, and Gonzaga ranks 12. LMU is currently 82nd in the RPI right now. This would be a firm Quad 2 win, with an outside chance of potentially becoming a Quad 1. It would certainly help the NET of the Zags to blowout LMU. Trusting them to do so. This bet is Shot Quality approved. See below for a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:

Score Prediction: Gonzaga 85 – LMU 70

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/14 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: James Bessette)

Season Record: 162-131

Season Best Bet Record: 57-32

2/14 Card:

Providence +2

DePaul +1.5

Wisconsin -1

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Providence +2 : This is a Providence game. No doubt about it. Creighton is coming into this game as one of the hottest teams in the country. 8 wins in a row. Yet, the line now sits as Creighton as a -1.5 favorite. For a casual, this would be an easy Creighton play. However, I have the Friars winning this game tonight. Providence is elite at home. ELITE. They are undefeated on home court this season, including wins over UConn and Marquette. Also, Ed Cooley is 26-16 ATS as home dog. This home court advantage is real. Cooley has prepared his teams well for the Creighton offensive attack over the years. He is 15-7 ATS against Coach McBuckets & the Jays in his time at Providence. Creighton won the first matchup by 6 points, but Jared Bynum missed that game due to injury for Providence. He had 10 assists over the weekend against St. John’s, and is crucial for the Providence offensive attack. Having him in this matchup will be huge. Also, the Jays were not able to contain Bryce Hopkins in the first matchup. He had 20 & 10, and should be in-line for another big night tonight. The 1 seed in the Big East tournament is still up for grabs, and I think the Friars will pull a step closer to that tonight.

Score Prediction: Providence 74 – Creighton 70

DePaul +1.5 : The Johnnies beat Providence over the weekend. One of their biggest wins of the season. While I think Providence is in line for a huge bounce back performance tonight, I think St. John’s is due to regress back to their mean. St. John’s would not be laying points in this matchup had they not pulled the Providence upset. The Red Storm are 1-6 on the road in conference this season. They should not be favored over anyone on the road. DePaul has knocked off Xavier and Nova in Chicago this season, and I think they can pack enough punch to knock off a St. John’s team that is probably due for a down effort. No real analytics to point to here. Both teams play fast and inefficiently. There will be a lot of points. This is just a spot play for me more than anything.

Score Prediction: DePaul 80 – St. John’s 77

Wisconsin -1 : Slap Game. The Madison faithful will be hostile out of the gate tonight in what is the first matchup between these two teams since the infamous Juwan slap. I think that Michigan’s depth could be a problem for them in this game. They lean very heavily on their starters, and I do not see the likes of Joey Baker and Tarris Reed faring well in the Kohl Center should one of the starters go down or get into foul trouble. The Badgers have some of the best home support in the country. They have lost two in a row at the Kohl Center, and I just do not see them losing a third with that advantage behind them. Also, Tyler Wahl is starting to impact the game in other areas outside of scoring. He is averaging 6.5 reb & 6.5 ast in the last two outings. If he keeps putting in the effort in these areas, the scoring will come. He just needs to relax to find his offensive form. Similarly to DePaul, I just love the spot here. The Badgers get right tonight behind the home faithful.

Score Prediction: Wisconsin 67 – Michigan 64

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/10 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Getty Images – Sam Wasson)

Season Record: 152-124

Season Best Bet Record: 56-29

2/10 Card:

Dayton -5

New Mexico -6

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Dayton -5 : I respect the Billikens, but a Friday night home spot at UD Arena gives the Flyers the edge on this 5 point spread. Dayton is 5-1 at home in the A-10 this season. Their form has been pretty Jekyll and Hyde, but after the VCU performance I am comfortable in laying the 5 with them here. Yuri Collins is the heartbeat of this Saint Louis team. Not many teams phase him, but he has had some struggles with Dayton. He scored 4 points & had 7 turnovers in this matchup last season in UD Arena. The Dayton defense is excellent again this season with a ranking of 23rd in defensive efficiency. If you bother Collins, the Billiken offense won’t get it going on the road. We saw that most recently in their road loss to Fordham. Collins had 8 points and only 1 assist. I trust Dayton’s defense to get it done for us in this amped up Friday night home spot.

Score Prediction: Dayton 72 – Saint Louis 64

New Mexico -6 : Best Bet of the night!! Entering “must win” territory for the Lobos after their recent 1-3 skid. Joe Lunardi now has them in the “Last Four In”. A loss to Air Force would have them on the outside looking in entering next week. I understand the optics of a 1-3 slide, but the Lobos really aren’t playing terribly. They actually have been elite on the offensive end just as they have all season. The Lobos currently rank 28th in the country in offensive efficiency. New Mexico lost two of these games in down to the wire nail biters at the hands of Nevada. One in double OT, and the other on a last second winner by the Blackshear. The third loss was on the road in Logan, UT. The Aggies have one of the tougher mid-major home court advantages in the country. I think the Lobos are fine. The matchup edge with Air Force is huge. In the 81-73 win for the Lobos over the Falcons on January 27th, Air Force was unable to stop the three headed monster of House, Mashburn Jr., & Udeze. If you can’t limit even one of those guys, you have not chance to beat New Mexico. The even more concerning part is that Mashburn and Udeze went to the line a combined 19 times. Giving free points to the Lobos is a recipe for disaster. As you can see below, Shot Quality shows that New Mexico is elite at driving to the rim. The Falcons are just outmatched athletically and the success from the free throw line will continue tonight. Air Force is ranked 222nd in defensive efficiency, and their 135th ranked offense just won’t be able to keep up with the points that the Lobos put up. The number is not as high as I believe it should be due to the market’s perception of Air Force’s home court advantage in Colorado Springs at elevation. However, it just simply has not mattered this season. They are 1-5 straight up, and 2-4 ATS in Mountain West play at home. The only win coming against a completely depleted Wyoming team. New Mexico has a reason to hang a big number on the Falcons due to at-large implications, and I believe they do so. Lobos bring this home for us comfortably.

Score Prediction: New Mexico 77 – Air Force 65

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/9 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: KY Today – Chip Hutcheson)

Season Record: 150-123

Season Best Bet Record: 55-29

2/9 Card:

WKU -1

Loyola Marymount +8.5

Stanford -2.5

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WKU -1 : Best Bet of the night!! The Hilltoppers are going to make it a perfect 3-0 homestand with a win tonight over MTSU. Dontaie Allen entered the starting lineup against UTSA on 2/2, and it has paid immediate dividends. He had 22 pts & 7 reb on 38 minutes in that one, and then followed that up with 25 pts & 7 reb on 34 minutes in a win over UTEP last time out. The UK transfer is in the zone and flourishing as a Hilltopper, finally. That completely changes the makeup of this team. The Hilltoppers now have another shot maker to go along with Dayvion McKnight. They also have the defensive pieces to compete with an athletic Blue Raiders team. Emmanuel Akot is an elite on-ball defender as a 6’8 guard (Leon Rice trained), and 7’5 Jamarion Sharp continues to lead the nation in blocked shots at 4.2 per game. The Hilltoppers still have solid home support at Diddle even though they are underperforming from preseason expectations, so I will still give a nice home court edge here. Allen’s recent scoring is the difference maker here, and I am putting my money behind that continuing in the comfort of his home gym.

Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 75 – Middle Tennessee State 69

Loyola Marymount +8.5 : Going back to our Lions! They have been good to us this year, and we are going to catch Saint Mary’s in a sleepy road spot after their thrilling comeback win over Gonzaga. The Lions are 4-1 at home in the WCC this season. They have also shown that they can compete with anyone in the country on their day. They have wins over Wake Forest, Nevada, BYU and Gonzaga this season. Cam Shelton’s aggressiveness going to the rim should prove fruitful tonight. The Gaels have been a little foul happy as of late. They committed 18 fouls against San Francisco, and then followed that up with 20 against Gonzaga. Shelton has gone to the line 18 times over this last three games, and went to the stripe 9 times in the first meeting with SMC. They Lions also have the three ball edge at their disposal. The Gaels are really struggling to shoot the ball right now, and LMU is 23rd in the country in made threes per game. I think they can pack a punch long enough in this game to cover the 8.5. This is now down to 7.5 at most books. I would not play it below 7.

Score Prediction: SMC 67 – Loyola Marymount 62

Stanford -2.5 : Stanford has been a major disappointment this season, but the majority of their struggles have come on the road/neutral site. They have actually been pretty good at Maples outside of a beatdown from UCLA. I can excuse that. They have won four in a row at home outright, and Shot Quality graded their two close losses at Maples before that as wins based on their looks (see below). The Sun Devils are also dipping in form. They have lost 5 of their last 6, with the only win coming against Oregon State in Tempe. I think that Arizona State will have a lot of trouble with Spencer Jones and Harrison Ingram tonight. The Cardinal took 2 out of 3 last season from ASU, including a W at Maples. They could not keep Ingram off of the glass, and could not guard Jones from the perimeter. A casual gambler will look at this game and take the three points with a 16-8 team vs a 10-13 team. We know what to do.

Score Prediction: Stanford 72 – Arizona State 66

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/7 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: AP – Chris Seward)

Season Record: 146-121

Season Best Bet Record: 54-28

2/7 Card:

Texas A&M -3

UNC PK

NC State/UVA o133.5

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Texas A&M -3 : Texas A&M beats Auburn for the 2nd time the season tonight. I just think this is a really bad matchup for Auburn. Auburn is a really aggressive defense, and due to that they foul at an exponential rate. They foul on 26.5% of their opponent’s possessions. That is good for 298th in the country. The Aggies are THIRD in the country in percentage of points from the free throw line at 24.4%. They shoot them at a 74% clip. This is just a dominant matchup edge that I cannot overlook. The Aggies were 20-24 from the line from the first matchup, and I think they will make 20 free throws again tonight. This Texas A&M team is hot, and are 11-1 at home this season. I do not foresee a scenario where Auburn can pull an upset here due to success I believe A&M will have at the line. Rolling with the Aggies.

Score Prediction: Texas A&M 72 – Auburn 66

UNC PK : Best Bet of the night! Similarly to the Aggies, I believe Tar Heels will run the regular season double on Wake Forest. While we saw an emotional let down from Duke last night (and profited from it!), I expect the opposite reaction from Carolina. I believe that they will be hungry to come out and win this important Q1 game to erase the memory of Saturday in Durham. This is about the time in the season last year when they turned it on, and Wake Forest is the perfect matchup for the Heels offense to let out their frustrations. Wake Forest’s defense continues to struggle as we have made our way to February. They are 207th in defensive efficiency. They also have zero post resistance to combat the threat of Bacot. Armando was 7-11 from the field, and 7-10 from the free throw line in the Heels 88-79 win over the Demon Deacons a few weeks back. Duke was able to find success against Carolina through their interior defense. They had 11 blocks against the Tar Heels. The Deacs do not have a similar threat. Their rim protection is some of the worst in the country. They are 291st in the country in block percentage (4%), and 230th in the country in opponent two point percentage (51.2%). The over is also worth a look because I think Wake Forest can find some success from the perimeter, but the Heels will walk away with this victory. This bet is also Shot Quality approved. Here is a preview of their Value Finder:

Score Prediction: UNC 82 – Wake Forest 76

NC State/UVA o133.5 : UVA should get whatever they want on the offensive end tonight. The Wolfpack are 143rd in the country in road defensive efficiency, and the Cavs offense has been clicking over their last 5 conference games. They are averaging 73ppg. That is impressive for an offense that likes to play a low possession game. I also think that NC State can keep up with the scoring pace that we will need. The Wolfpack are 17th in the country at 79.6 points per game, and have four scorers that average double figures. Including, UVA transfer Casey Morsell. He is having the best season of his college career, and will be ready to show his former team what they are missing. The way to score against UVA’s pack-line defense is to shoot over it. The Wolfpack have been successful at that this season. They have 201 makes from distance in 24 games, and are shooting them at a 35.2% clip. It is also worth noting that UVA’s defense is not as elite as you would expect for a Tony Bennett team. They just slid outside of the Top 50 in defensive efficiency. Go points!

Score Prediction: UVA 73 – NC State 65

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/6 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Alex McIntyre)

Season Record: 143-120

Season Best Bet Record: 53-28

2/6 Card:

Miami -3.5

Holy Cross +2.5

Kansas -4

Northern Colorado PK

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Miami -3.5 : The Canes were in a dog fight in Durham with Duke a few weeks ago. They ultimately lost the game 68-66, but there are some key takeaways from this game that points to Miami returning the favor tonight. For starters, Miami won that game based on the Shot Quality analytics (listed below). The model showed that they had an expected 80-73 win that night. Duke did not defend the perimeter well at all, and that is a biiiig problem when facing Miami and their loaded backcourt with shooters. Also, Duke didn’t dominate the boards against the smaller Canes as one would think. Duke gained 16 offensive rebounds, but Miami was able to snag 13 of their own. Miami is also undefeated at home this season, and we all know about Duke’s struggles on the road in conference. There is also an element here of a let-down spot after Duke’s emotional win over Carolina. They have a ton of freshman that play meaningful minutes that definitely enjoyed every second of that win and the celebrations after. The quick Monday turnaround has me questioning what form we will see from them. Canes comfortably.

Score Prediction: Miami 77 – Duke 70

Holy Cross +2.5 : Lafayette shouldn’t be laying point to anyone on the road. I will gladly take the 2.5 with the Crusaders. Also, I think that Holy Cross has the best player in this game in Gerrale Gates. He busted Lafayette’s ass last season at home with a 27 & 14 outing. Holy Cross won that game 79-74. Lafayette does not have a great defense. That is especially true on the road. They are 164th in the country in road defensive efficiency. The Crusaders have been playing better as of late, and I just think that these two teams are neutrals. I give Holy Cross the edge at home, so I will gladly take the 2.5.

Score Prediction: Holy Cross 65 – Lafayette 63

Kansas -4 : I like Kansas in this bounce back spot. I am not going to get super analytical here, but this is mostly a gut feeling. Texas is not fantastic on the road, and Kansas will make you pay for a halftime deficit like they had in Manhattan. They do not let you off of the mat at the Phog. Also, Bill Self will make this one personal to his players. The Jayhawks barely escaped this matchup in OT last season, and got absolutely boat raced the year before. Also, Texas is leading the standings right now. It is the Kansas standard to always win the Big 12. There is just such a massive coaching edge with Bill Self at home, and Rodney Terry on the road as an interim. Great spot to buy back in on Kansas.

Score Prediction: Kansas 76 – Texas 68

Northern Colorado PK: The Best Bet is making its first appearance in the Big Sky this season. I think this is a big night for the Bears. This is an awful scheduling spot for Weber State. The Wildcats played a double overtime thriller Saturday night in Pocatello, Idaho. Jones and Verplanken both played 45 minutes in this affair. Now, they are on a quick turnaround 48 hours later to play at elevation in Greeley, CO. There is a solid chance that we will see some sea legs from Weber State as they rely a ton of their starters to cover their minutes. I also think this is a game where Northern Colorado can expose them from the three point line. The Bears are Top 50 in the country in points from three pointers, and Weber State is 264th in the country in opponent three point percentage (35.4%). Knecht and Kountz will have monster nights for the Bears, and Northern Colorado will have a performance that will remind us of what we thought of them in the preseason. Also, Vegas is giving this one away. A 7-16 team is a PK against 12-11. They are trying to bait the large majority of the handle on Weber. We will roll with the oddsmakers tonight. This is also Shot Quality approved. They give a slight edge to the Bears.

Score Prediction: Northern Colorado 76 – Weber State 69

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/3 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Nevada Sports Net)

Season Record: 137-109

Season Best Bet Record: 52-26

2/3 Card:

Saint Louis -2.5

Boise State +6

Kent State / Akron o133

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Saint Louis -2.5 : I love the Billikens in this home spot. Saint Louis is 7-2 and 0.5 game back from VCU for the A-10 lead. The impressive part is that they have gotten themselves in this position the hard way. Saint Louis has played 6 of their first 9 A-10 games on the road. They are 3-0 at home in conference play, and will take the A-10 lead after getting a W in Chaifetz Arena tonight. VCU wins games by forcing a heavy volume of turnovers from their opponents. However, Saint Louis has one of the best point guards in the country. Yuri Collins is leading the nation with 10.1 assists per game, and is only turning the ball over 3.3 times per game. Having him as a floor general against the Rams pressure will be vital to success. Saint Louis built out a 21 point lead in this matchup last year before VCU hit a bunch of threes at the end of the game to make it look closer than it was. This is a great matchup for Saint Louis, and they get a big win tonight. In Yuri We Trust. This matchup is Shot Quality approved. Here is a snapshot of their Value Finder for this game:

Score Prediction: Saint Louis 73 – VCU 68

Boise State +6 : Best Bet of the night!!! Leon Rice has owned this matchup recently. The Broncos won all three matchups last season, and I think they are poised to give the Aztecs a run for their money again tonight. The Broncos will completely shut down the ISO ball that SDSU has a habit of getting into. Boise State is ranked 8th in the country in defensive efficiency this season. One of the elite groups in the country. In even better news for our play tonight, they are the 6th best road defense in the country in regards to efficiency. This is 100% not repeatable, but it is worth noting that Boise State limited the Aztecs to 37 points on their home court last season. Now, there is definitely luck involved when there is a number that low, but Rice’s Broncos also held them to 57 and 52 points in the other two meetings. Rice also took SDSU to the brink in the two losses in the 20/21 season. One loss was in OT, and the other was by 4 points. The offensive scheme of Brian Dutcher is just so easy for him to stifle with the defensive weapons that he has. They may not win a fourth in a row against SDSU, but they will certainly be in this game until the clock hits 0:00.

Score Prediction: SDSU 67 – Boise State 65

Kent State/Akron o133 : Make sure you are tuned into this one tonight. The energy is going to be palpable. There is pure hatred between these teams. The two teams had major beef in Kent State’s trip to Akron in the regular season last year, and that led to the suspension of a few Kent State players before the MAC Championship for a profanity laced video directed towards Akron. This total sits at 133 due to the pace of play of Akron this season, however I believe this bad blood will have the pace jacked up from their average tonight. We saw that happen in the MAC title game last year after the beef. The Zips played with intensity and pace above their norm in that game and scored 75 points. I suspect there will be many trips to the free throw line, along with a tech or two if things get heated. The refs will be ready to hand out technicals to keep the game under control. I can assure you of that. Dropping the links below of the famous “Fuck Akron” video, along with the video of the game that caused the beef.

rematch tonight 🍿 @mid_madness pic.twitter.com/mjmtjvSJLU
— Matt Gannon (@matt_gannon_) February 3, 2023

The last time that Akron & Kent State played was in the MAC Championship game.

Kent State was without a bevy of players because of this video. Akron won & made the NCAA Tournament.

Bad blood to say the least. 9:00 ET. ESPNU. TUNE IN.pic.twitter.com/H3GBagkraU
— Mid-Major Madness (@mid_madness) February 3, 2023

Score Prediction: Kent State 70 – Akron 68

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/2 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: AL.com)

Season Record: 136-107

Season Best Bet Record: 51-26

2/2 Card:

UAB PK

Towson +3

San Fran/Saint Mary’s o129.5

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UAB PK : Best Bet of the night!! The big question mark tonight is Jelly Walker. He has tried to play as recently as the Rice game, but the pain has been too much for him to deal with when he goes through pre-game warm ups. I have seen that there was a slight improvement with him in Monday & Tuesday practice this week, so I would be shocked if he doesn’t try to give it a go tonight. Even 15-20 minutes would be a huge boost. However, I think the Blazers can get this done tonight without him. This team is littered with seniors, and they will be licking their chops to knock off ranked a FAU team in Birmingham. There is pride on the line here. This was UAB’s conference to lose in the preseason, and they currently find themselves 6-5 in a tie for 4th place. It is important to note that a lot of these shortcomings have come on the road. The Blazers are still 11-2 at Bartow Arena this year. Importantly, the Blazers have had senior leaders step up recently in the scoring department. Ledarrius Brewer finally had his breakout performance as a Blazer. He scored 20 points on 8-14 shooting from the field. KJ Buffen added 20 & 10 as well. Also, team is defending like we thought they could this year over the last two games. Andy Kennedy finally found the right dials to turn and this team is looking dangerous again. Grabbing the Blazers at PK last night was a gift, but I still condone taking them up to -2.5. The Blazers had FAU on the ropes in Boca and almost pulled off the road victory a few weeks ago. They will return the favor tonight, and put their name back in the longshot at-large discussion. This bet is HEAVILY Shot Quality approved. Their Value Finder shows the Blazers winning by 9.5 points tonight.

Score Prediction: UAB 76 – FAU 70

Towson +3 : This is a classic overreaction line. The entire nation saw Hofstra beat ranked CofC last weekend. The nation’s darling. It was an impressive performance and they are a solid team, but laying three points to Towson is absurd. I have Towson -4.5 on a neutral. They at worst should be a 1 point favorite tonight. I will gladly take the three points in what I think will be a close one. The pre-season conference favorite Tigers have won 6 in a row, including a 68-47 win over this same Hofstra team. Towson got out to a monster lead via the offensive glass and never looked back. I believe that winning the glass in that fashion is repeatable within a two weeks stretch against the same opponent. The Tigers should clean up on the glass one again tonight. Also, Cam Holden has been an absolute monster since his disciplinary suspension. He had a 24/10/10 triple-double last time out against W&M. Triple-doubles are rare in the college ranks, and I want my money with the guy who is in that form. Hofstra is 165 in defensive efficiency, and at the end of the day they still gave up 81 points to Charleston in that win. They will not be able to stop Towson, and the Tigers should get the road win.

Score Prediction: Towson 72 – Hofstra 70

San Francisco/Saint Mary’s o129.5 : These two backcourts are fantastic. Mahaney/Johnson & Shabazz/Roberts can create their own shots at any point of a shot clock. We know that Saint Mary’s likes to slow the pace, so it is helpful to have shot creators in the half court in regards to overs. This first matchup closed at 132.5 and it ended on 139. I have this one at 135.5 tonight. We actually saw the Gaels play with an elevated pace against the Dons in that game. The defense that San Francisco plays is detrimental to their chances of stopping Saint Mary’s. The freedom they give the opposing backcourt is a serious problem when you are facing the likes of Aidan Mahaney and Logan Johnson. To make matters worse, the Dons are the 232nd worst road defense in the country in regards to defensive efficiency. I think the Gaels will enjoy themselves on the offensive end tonight, and at minimum touch 70 points. The Dons will take care of the rest.

Score Prediction: Saint Mary’s 75 – San Francisco 61

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!

2/1 Three Ball Write-Up

(photo: Gavin Baker)

Season Record: 134-106

Season Best Bet Record: 50-26

2/1 Card:

Saint Joe’s -4.5

Villanova/Marquette o145

Tulane -8.5

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Saint Joe’s -4.5 : The Best Bet of the night! Getting it out of the way early before our two later tips. I love the Hawks in this home spot. The Joe’s are coming into this matchup winning 4 out of their last 5 straight up. The only loss was in overtime by 1 point at GW. Rhode Island is 0-6 straight up on the road this season, and only 2-4 ATS. This is largely due to their carelessness with the basketball. The Rams are ranked 291st in the country in turnovers. Also, they have a negative assist/turnover ratio for the season. You will not find success on the road with those problems. Also, this team just flat out cannot shoot. They are 321st in the country in three point attempt rate, and only make them at 30.6% when they do shoot them. That is trouble tonight as Saint Joe’s loves shooting the three ball, and do it well in the confines of their home gym. The Hawks are 30th in the country at three point attempt rate, and are 9th in the country in points from three pointers at home. Erik Reynolds II is one of the best players in the A-10, and is coming off of a 30 point performance in a win over George Mason. His elite scoring will carry us tonight.

Score Prediction: Saint Joe’s 75 – Rhode Island 66

Villanova/Marquette o145 : Marquette is an absolute fireball at Fiserv. They are averaging 82.4 ppg at home in conference play. They should get near that number again tonight against a Villanova team ranking 225th in defensive efficiency this season. Nova has added Justin Moore back into the equation after a long recovery process on his knee. I think that is great for their offensive outlook, but he will struggle to stay in front of the athletic Golden Eagles tonight defensively. He just doesn’t have that closing speed yet. This should make the Wildcats’ defensive efficiency suffer even more. Also, I love picking spots where Vegas virtually doesn’t change the total (144.5 last matchup) even when the result of the previous match does not come close to that number. The first matchup between these two ended on 134 points. However, the game was 66-66 with 3:42 left and it ended 68-66 in Marquette’s favor. As you know, that is an anomaly type of ending for that score-line with 4 to go. Also, what I loved from that game was the volume of three pointers that we saw. There were 59 three pointers attempted between the two. I think we could see a similar number tonight. Marquette will up this pace. There will be nothing Nova can do to stop it if they want to hang around. I think we get to at least 150 here. This bet is Shot Quality approved. Check out their Value Finder below:

Score Prediction: Marquette 78 – Villanova 72

Tulane -8.5 : The Mustangs have been no shows on the road in the AAC against stiff competition. Here are their results (minus crappy Tulsa):

@ Houston – 87- 53 Loss

@ UCF – 85-53 Loss

@ Memphis – 99-84 Loss

The obvious trend here is SMU’s abysmal road defensive performances. They are 297th in road defensive efficiency. They are 208th encompassing all of their games, so that shows you that their effort drops significantly on the road. Meanwhile, the Green Wave have been absolutely phenomenal in conference play at home. Their only loss is to Houston. Their offense is really intricate due to the ability of Kevin Cross to dish the rock. At 6’8, he is 5th in the AAC in assist rate at 28% (stat credit: Taylor Eldridge). SMU will have no clue what to do with this scheme. Also, Jaylen Forbes is just that dude in Nola. He always has big time scoring performances at home. Trusting him to lead the way for the Green Wave to have a double digit victory tonight.

Score Prediction: Tulane 85 – SMU 72

Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!